Western Conference · 2026-27

Oklahoma City Thunder OKC

8–2

2026-27 record

1677

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

113.3

Offensive rating

last 10 games

105.6

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

98.8

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded OKC game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 271 of 384 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of OKC's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. OKC ranks 3 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 11:00 PM ET

OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 8–2 –

@POR Portland Trail Blazers 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 10:00 PM ET

OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 8–2 –

@POR Portland Trail Blazers 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 10:30 PM ET

OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 8–2 –

@LAC Los Angeles Clippers 2–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked OKC games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

14.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.3 to 20.5

+3.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -6.1 to 12.4

19.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

80%

winner picked

10 games involving OKC

8 / 6.3

actual / expected wins

gap +1.8

0.193

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	OKC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs WAS	72%	115–107	W 114–75	✓correct	+31
Nov 6	at MEM	62%	116–112	W 128–97	✓correct	+27
Nov 4	vs CLE	61%	113–110	W 124–116	✓correct	+5
Nov 2	at CLE	41%	110–113	W 117–112	✗missed	+8
Oct 31	at HOU	47%	109–110	L 98–119	✓correct	−20
Oct 28	at DAL	72%	122–114	L 96–120	✗missed	−32
Oct 26	vs PHX	76%	115–105	W 125–114	✓correct	+1
Oct 25	vs LAC	74%	117–108	W 108–101	✓correct	−2
Oct 22	vs DEN	69%	117–110	W 96–84	✓correct	+5
Oct 20	at SAS	50%	112–111	W 116–104	✓correct	+11

2025-26

Across 96 graded games, OKC finished an average of 2.7 points better than the forecast margin (90% interval +0.2 to +5.2).

11.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.7 to 13.2; 15th smallest of 30

+2.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 0.2 to 5.2

15.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

84%

winner picked

96 games involving OKC

75 / 66.0

actual / expected wins

gap +9.0

0.149

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 96 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	OKC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 30 PO	vs SAS	33%	106–109	L 103–111	✓correct	−5
May 28 PO	at SAS	19%	97–110	L 91–118	✓correct	−14
May 26 PO	vs SAS	83%	115–101	W 127–114	✓correct	−1
May 24 PO	at SAS	26%	104–113	L 82–103	✓correct	−12
May 22 PO	at SAS	39%	107–111	W 123–108	✗missed	+19
May 20 PO	vs SAS	76%	112–102	W 122–113	✓correct	−1
May 18 PO	vs SAS	76%	111–101	L 115–122	✗missed	−17
May 11 PO	at LAL	76%	106–96	W 115–110	✓correct	−5
May 9 PO	at LAL	83%	109–95	W 131–108	✓correct	+9
May 7 PO	vs LAL	64%	107–102	W 125–107	✓correct	+13
May 5 PO	vs LAL	59%	108–105	W 108–90	✓correct	+15
Apr 27 PO	at PHX	60%	112–108	W 131–122	✓correct	+5
Apr 25 PO	at PHX	68%	112–105	W 121–109	✓correct	+5
Apr 22 PO	vs PHX	82%	114–101	W 120–107	✓correct	±0
Apr 19 PO	vs PHX	78%	116–105	W 119–84	✓correct	+24
Apr 12	vs PHX	87%	121–104	L 103–135	✗missed	−49
Apr 10	at DEN	22%	112–123	L 107–127	✓correct	−9
Apr 8	at LAC	56%	112–110	W 128–110	✓correct	+16
Apr 7	at LAL	71%	121–113	W 123–87	✓correct	+28
Apr 5	vs UTA	92%	127–106	W 146–111	✓correct	+14
Apr 2	vs LAL	69%	118–111	W 139–96	✓correct	+36
Mar 30	vs DET	74%	119–110	W 114–110	✓correct	−5
Mar 29	vs NYK	53%	112–111	W 111–100	✓correct	+10
Mar 27	vs CHI	83%	126–112	W 131–113	✓correct	+4
Mar 25	at BOS	61%	113–109	L 109–119	✗missed	−14
Mar 23	at PHI	76%	118–108	W 123–103	✓correct	+10
Mar 21	at WAS	87%	125–108	W 132–111	✓correct	+4
Mar 18	at BKN	81%	116–103	W 121–92	✓correct	+16
Mar 17	at ORL	56%	114–112	W 113–108	✓correct	+3
Mar 15	vs MIN	76%	120–110	W 116–103	✓correct	+3
Mar 12	vs BOS	67%	110–104	W 104–102	✓correct	−4
Mar 9	vs DEN	78%	122–111	W 129–126	✓correct	−8
Mar 7	vs GSW	74%	116–107	W 104–97	✓correct	−2
Mar 4	at NYK	47%	112–113	W 103–100	✗missed	+4
Mar 3	at CHI	80%	122–110	W 116–108	✓correct	−4
Mar 1	at DAL	86%	126–110	W 100–87	✓correct	−3
Feb 27	vs DEN	71%	120–112	W 127–121	✓correct	−2
Feb 25	at DET	34%	112–118	L 116–124	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	at TOR	47%	113–114	W 116–107	✗missed	+10
Feb 22	vs CLE	53%	113–112	W 121–113	✓correct	+7
Feb 20	vs BKN	80%	114–102	W 105–86	✓correct	+7
Feb 12	vs MIL	80%	116–104	L 93–110	✗missed	−29
Feb 11	at PHX	61%	113–109	W 136–109	✓correct	+23
Feb 9	at LAL	47%	113–114	W 119–110	✗missed	+10
Feb 7	vs HOU	71%	114–106	L 106–112	✗missed	−14
Feb 4	at SAS	24%	109–119	L 106–116	✓correct	±0
Feb 3	vs ORL	80%	120–108	W 128–92	✓correct	+24
Feb 1	at DEN	53%	112–111	W 121–111	✓correct	+9
Jan 29	at MIN	47%	117–118	L 111–123	✓correct	−11
Jan 27	vs NOP	86%	126–110	W 104–95	✓correct	−7
Jan 25	vs TOR	78%	120–109	L 101–103	✗missed	−13
Jan 23	vs IND	86%	123–107	L 114–117	✗missed	−19
Jan 21	at MIL	58%	116–113	W 122–102	✓correct	+17
Jan 19	at CLE	56%	118–116	W 136–104	✓correct	+30
Jan 17	at MIA	64%	121–116	L 120–122	✗missed	−7
Jan 15	at HOU	53%	115–114	W 111–91	✓correct	+19
Jan 13	vs SAS	80%	122–110	W 119–98	✓correct	+9
Jan 11	vs MIA	80%	124–112	W 124–112	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	at MEM	71%	123–115	W 117–116	✓correct	−7
Jan 7	vs UTA	87%	127–110	W 129–125	✓correct	−13
Jan 5	vs CHA	90%	128–109	L 97–124	✗missed	−46
Jan 4	at PHX	41%	114–117	L 105–108	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	at GSW	58%	119–116	W 131–94	✓correct	+34
Dec 31	vs POR	89%	126–108	W 124–95	✓correct	+11
Dec 29	vs ATL	92%	131–110	W 140–129	✓correct	−10
Dec 28	vs PHI	87%	125–108	W 129–104	✓correct	+8
Dec 25	vs SAS	82%	126–113	L 102–117	✗missed	−28
Dec 23	at SAS	31%	113–120	L 110–130	✓correct	−13
Dec 22	vs MEM	85%	123–108	W 119–103	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	at MIN	41%	113–116	L 107–112	✓correct	−2
Dec 18	vs LAC	89%	125–107	W 122–101	✓correct	+3
Dec 10	vs PHX	82%	123–110	W 138–89	✓correct	+36
Dec 7	at UTA	64%	121–116	W 131–101	✓correct	+25
Dec 5	vs DAL	89%	125–107	W 132–111	✓correct	+3
Dec 2	at GSW	53%	113–112	W 124–112	✓correct	+11
Nov 30	at POR	64%	119–114	W 123–115	✓correct	+3
Nov 28	vs PHX	83%	123–109	W 123–119	✓correct	−10
Nov 26	vs MIN	85%	124–109	W 113–105	✓correct	−7
Nov 23	vs POR	89%	127–109	W 122–95	✓correct	+9
Nov 21	at UTA	71%	120–112	W 144–112	✓correct	+24
Nov 19	vs SAC	93%	129–106	W 113–99	✓correct	−9
Nov 17	at NOP	85%	127–112	W 126–109	✓correct	+2
Nov 15	at CHA	85%	126–111	W 109–96	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	vs LAL	85%	126–111	W 121–92	✓correct	+14
Nov 11	vs GSW	82%	123–110	W 126–102	✓correct	+11
Nov 9	at MEM	71%	123–115	W 114–100	✓correct	+6
Nov 7	at SAC	64%	118–113	W 132–101	✓correct	+26
Nov 5	at POR	53%	117–116	L 119–121	✗missed	−3
Nov 4	at LAC	64%	112–107	W 126–107	✓correct	+14
Nov 2	vs NOP	85%	119–104	W 137–106	✓correct	+16
Oct 30	vs WAS	83%	117–103	W 127–108	✓correct	+5
Oct 28	vs SAC	71%	116–108	W 107–101	✓correct	−2
Oct 27	at DAL	76%	122–112	W 101–94	✓correct	−3
Oct 25	at ATL	69%	123–116	W 117–100	✓correct	+10
Oct 23	at IND	53%	113–112	W 141–135	✓correct	+5
Oct 21	vs HOU	78%	116–105	W 125–124	✓correct	−10

2024-25

Across 104 graded games, OKC finished an average of 3.7 points better than the forecast margin (90% interval +1.4 to +6.1).

11.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 13.2; 22nd smallest of 30

+3.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 1.4 to 6.1

14.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

76%

winner picked

104 games involving OKC

83 / 71.5

actual / expected wins

gap +11.5

0.178

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 104 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	OKC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Jun 22 PO	vs IND	77%	116–105	W 103–91	✓correct	+1
Jun 19 PO	at IND	51%	109–108	L 91–108	✗missed	−18
Jun 16 PO	vs IND	73%	115–106	W 120–109	✓correct	+2
Jun 13 PO	at IND	46%	109–110	W 111–104	✗missed	+8
Jun 11 PO	at IND	46%	109–110	L 107–116	✓correct	−8
Jun 8 PO	vs IND	73%	116–107	W 123–107	✓correct	+7
Jun 5 PO	vs IND	79%	116–104	L 110–111	✗missed	−13
May 28 PO	vs MIN	64%	109–104	W 124–94	✓correct	+25
May 26 PO	at MIN	56%	108–105	W 128–126	✓correct	−1
May 24 PO	at MIN	61%	107–102	L 101–143	✗missed	−47
May 22 PO	vs MIN	73%	111–102	W 118–103	✓correct	+6
May 20 PO	vs MIN	67%	108–102	W 114–88	✓correct	+20
May 18 PO	vs DEN	79%	118–106	W 125–93	✓correct	+20
May 15 PO	at DEN	61%	109–104	L 107–119	✗missed	−17
May 13 PO	vs DEN	81%	118–105	W 112–105	✓correct	−6
May 11 PO	at DEN	59%	109–105	W 92–87	✓correct	+1
May 9 PO	at DEN	51%	109–108	L 104–113	✗missed	−10
May 7 PO	vs DEN	75%	117–107	W 149–106	✓correct	+33
May 5 PO	vs DEN	75%	117–107	L 119–121	✗missed	−12
Apr 26 PO	at MEM	71%	114–105	W 117–115	✓correct	−7
Apr 24 PO	at MEM	64%	114–108	W 114–108	✓correct	±0
Apr 22 PO	vs MEM	79%	120–108	W 118–99	✓correct	+7
Apr 20 PO	vs MEM	79%	119–107	W 131–80	✓correct	+39
Apr 13	at NOP	79%	125–112	W 115–100	✓correct	+2
Apr 11	at UTA	66%	122–115	W 145–111	✓correct	+27
Apr 9	at PHX	71%	118–109	W 125–112	✓correct	+4
Apr 8	vs LAL	77%	123–112	W 136–120	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	vs LAL	84%	126–111	L 99–126	✗missed	−42
Apr 4	at HOU	56%	117–114	L 111–125	✗missed	−17
Apr 2	vs DET	82%	126–112	W 119–103	✓correct	+2
Mar 31	vs CHI	79%	124–112	W 145–117	✓correct	+16
Mar 29	vs IND	81%	123–110	W 132–111	✓correct	+8
Mar 27	vs MEM	81%	124–111	W 125–104	✓correct	+8
Mar 25	at SAC	71%	119–110	W 121–105	✓correct	+7
Mar 23	at LAC	56%	114–111	W 103–101	✓correct	−1
Mar 21	vs CHA	89%	128–109	W 141–106	✓correct	+16
Mar 19	vs PHI	77%	128–117	W 133–100	✓correct	+22
Mar 16	at MIL	46%	120–121	W 121–105	✗missed	+17
Mar 15	at DET	51%	121–120	W 113–107	✓correct	+5
Mar 12	at BOS	43%	113–115	W 118–112	✗missed	+8
Mar 10	vs DEN	81%	126–113	L 127–140	✗missed	−26
Mar 9	vs DEN	73%	125–116	W 127–103	✓correct	+15
Mar 7	vs POR	59%	123–120	W 107–89	✓correct	+15
Mar 5	at MEM	51%	122–121	W 120–103	✓correct	+16
Mar 3	vs HOU	79%	123–111	W 137–128	✓correct	−3
Mar 2	at SAS	69%	121–113	W 146–132	✓correct	+6
Feb 28	at ATL	59%	123–119	W 135–119	✓correct	+12
Feb 26	at BKN	80%	114–100	W 129–121	✓correct	−6
Feb 24	vs MIN	79%	124–112	L 128–131	✗missed	−15
Feb 23	at MIN	54%	116–114	W 130–123	✓correct	+5
Feb 21	at UTA	75%	123–112	W 130–107	✓correct	+12
Feb 13	at MIN	69%	119–111	L 101–116	✗missed	−23
Feb 12	vs MIA	86%	124–107	W 115–101	✓correct	−3
Feb 10	vs NOP	89%	131–112	W 137–101	✓correct	+17
Feb 8	at MEM	33%	114–120	W 125–112	✗missed	+19
Feb 7	vs TOR	85%	125–109	W 121–109	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	vs PHX	77%	123–112	W 140–109	✓correct	+20
Feb 3	vs MIL	77%	126–115	W 125–96	✓correct	+18
Feb 1	vs SAC	79%	124–112	W 144–110	✓correct	+22
Jan 29	at GSW	71%	117–108	L 109–116	✗missed	−16
Jan 26	at POR	71%	116–107	W 118–108	✓correct	+1
Jan 23	vs DAL	81%	123–110	L 115–121	✗missed	−19
Jan 22	vs UTA	85%	124–108	W 123–114	✓correct	−7
Jan 19	vs BKN	81%	121–108	W 127–101	✓correct	+13
Jan 17	at DAL	69%	117–109	L 98–106	✗missed	−16
Jan 16	vs CLE	71%	123–115	W 134–114	✓correct	+12
Jan 14	at PHI	71%	115–106	W 118–102	✓correct	+7
Jan 12	at WAS	71%	119–110	W 136–95	✓correct	+32
Jan 10	at NYK	46%	112–113	W 126–101	✗missed	+26
Jan 8	at CLE	41%	115–118	L 122–129	✓correct	−4
Jan 5	vs BOS	59%	111–108	W 105–92	✓correct	+10
Jan 3	vs NYK	71%	117–109	W 117–107	✓correct	+2
Jan 2	vs LAC	82%	121–107	W 116–98	✓correct	+4
Dec 31	vs MIN	82%	120–106	W 113–105	✓correct	−6
Dec 29	vs MEM	71%	121–113	W 130–106	✓correct	+16
Dec 28	at CHA	79%	115–102	W 106–94	✓correct	−1
Dec 26	at IND	59%	116–112	W 120–114	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	vs WAS	86%	127–110	W 123–105	✓correct	+1
Dec 20	at MIA	51%	110–109	W 104–97	✓correct	+6
Dec 19	at ORL	71%	110–101	W 105–99	✓correct	−3
Dec 10	vs DAL	67%	121–115	W 118–104	✓correct	+8
Dec 7	at NOP	73%	117–107	W 119–109	✓correct	±0
Dec 5	at TOR	64%	114–108	W 129–92	✓correct	+31
Dec 3	vs UTA	84%	120–105	W 133–106	✓correct	+12
Dec 1	at HOU	43%	112–114	L 116–119	✓correct	−1
Nov 29	at LAL	56%	113–110	W 101–93	✓correct	+5
Nov 27	at GSW	46%	112–113	W 105–101	✗missed	+5
Nov 25	at SAC	51%	111–110	W 130–109	✓correct	+20
Nov 20	vs POR	82%	119–105	W 109–99	✓correct	−4
Nov 19	at SAS	61%	113–108	L 104–110	✗missed	−11
Nov 17	vs DAL	81%	121–108	L 119–121	✗missed	−15
Nov 15	vs PHX	79%	121–109	W 99–83	✓correct	+4
Nov 13	vs NOP	84%	123–108	W 106–88	✓correct	+3
Nov 11	vs LAC	73%	117–108	W 134–128	✓correct	−3
Nov 10	vs GSW	75%	120–110	L 116–127	✗missed	−21
Nov 8	vs HOU	73%	118–109	W 126–107	✓correct	+10
Nov 6	at DEN	66%	110–103	L 122–124	✗missed	−9
Nov 4	vs ORL	82%	119–105	W 102–86	✓correct	+2
Nov 2	at LAC	51%	107–106	W 105–92	✓correct	+12
Nov 1	at POR	66%	113–106	W 137–114	✓correct	+16
Oct 30	vs SAS	79%	117–105	W 105–93	✓correct	±0
Oct 27	vs ATL	81%	121–108	W 128–104	✓correct	+11
Oct 26	at CHI	51%	111–110	W 114–95	✓correct	+18
Oct 24	at DEN	38%	103–107	W 102–87	✗missed	+19

2023-24

Across 92 graded games, OKC finished an average of 3.2 points better than the forecast margin (90% interval +0.4 to +5.7).

12.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.3 to 13.9; 24th smallest of 30

+3.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 0.4 to 5.7

15.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

61%

winner picked

92 games involving OKC

63 / 53.0

actual / expected wins

gap +10.0

0.214

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 92 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	OKC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 18 PO	at DAL	39%	101–104	L 116–117	✓correct	+2
May 15 PO	vs DAL	67%	110–104	L 92–104	✗missed	−18
May 13 PO	at DAL	43%	101–102	W 100–96	✗missed	+5
May 11 PO	at DAL	51%	103–100	L 101–105	✗missed	−7
May 9 PO	vs DAL	72%	113–104	L 110–119	✗missed	−18
May 7 PO	vs DAL	72%	115–106	W 117–95	✓correct	+13
Apr 29 PO	at NOP	49%	107–105	W 97–89	✓correct	+6
Apr 27 PO	at NOP	41%	108–110	W 106–85	✗missed	+23
Apr 24 PO	vs NOP	68%	113–106	W 124–92	✓correct	+25
Apr 21 PO	vs NOP	68%	114–107	W 94–92	✓correct	−5
Apr 14	vs DAL	78%	120–107	W 135–86	✓correct	+36
Apr 12	vs MIL	72%	118–109	W 125–107	✓correct	+9
Apr 10	vs SAS	75%	119–108	W 127–89	✓correct	+27
Apr 9	vs SAC	65%	113–108	W 112–105	✓correct	+2
Apr 7	at CHA	47%	112–111	W 121–118	✓correct	+2
Apr 5	at IND	35%	112–117	L 112–126	✓correct	−9
Apr 3	at BOS	27%	104–114	L 100–135	✓correct	−25
Apr 2	at PHI	39%	111–114	L 105–109	✓correct	−1
Mar 31	at NYK	39%	107–110	W 113–112	✗missed	+4
Mar 29	vs PHX	61%	113–110	W 128–103	✓correct	+22
Mar 27	vs HOU	70%	116–108	L 126–132	✗missed	−14
Mar 26	at NOP	37%	109–113	W 119–112	✗missed	+11
Mar 24	at MIL	43%	115–116	L 93–118	✓correct	−24
Mar 22	at TOR	71%	122–109	W 123–103	✓correct	+7
Mar 20	vs UTA	73%	121–111	W 119–107	✓correct	+2
Mar 16	at MEM	59%	113–106	W 118–112	✓correct	−1
Mar 14	vs DAL	75%	122–111	W 126–119	✓correct	−4
Mar 12	vs IND	72%	121–112	L 111–121	✗missed	−19
Mar 10	vs MEM	81%	120–105	W 124–93	✓correct	+16
Mar 8	vs MIA	70%	118–110	W 107–100	✓correct	−1
Mar 6	at POR	61%	115–107	W 128–120	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	at LAL	43%	120–121	L 104–116	✓correct	−11
Mar 3	at PHX	47%	114–113	W 118–110	✓correct	+7
Feb 29	at SAS	67%	122–111	L 118–132	✗missed	−25
Feb 27	vs HOU	70%	120–112	W 112–95	✓correct	+9
Feb 25	at HOU	57%	118–112	W 123–110	✓correct	+7
Feb 23	vs WAS	83%	125–108	W 147–106	✓correct	+24
Feb 22	vs LAC	68%	116–109	W 129–107	✓correct	+15
Feb 13	at ORL	47%	112–111	W 127–113	✓correct	+13
Feb 11	vs SAC	68%	119–112	W 127–113	✓correct	+7
Feb 10	at DAL	47%	116–115	L 111–146	✗missed	−36
Feb 6	at UTA	47%	118–117	L 117–124	✗missed	−8
Feb 4	vs TOR	68%	117–110	W 135–127	✓correct	+1
Feb 2	vs CHA	81%	117–102	W 126–106	✓correct	+5
Jan 31	vs DEN	68%	112–105	W 105–100	✓correct	−2
Jan 29	vs MIN	61%	113–110	L 101–107	✗missed	−9
Jan 28	at DET	53%	120–116	L 104–120	✗missed	−20
Jan 26	at NOP	43%	114–115	W 107–83	✗missed	+25
Jan 24	at SAS	55%	121–116	W 140–114	✓correct	+21
Jan 23	vs POR	82%	125–109	W 111–109	✓correct	−14
Jan 20	at MIN	41%	112–114	W 102–97	✗missed	+7
Jan 18	at UTA	43%	115–116	W 134–129	✗missed	+6
Jan 16	at LAC	39%	111–114	L 117–128	✓correct	−8
Jan 15	at LAL	53%	119–115	L 105–112	✗missed	−11
Jan 13	vs ORL	72%	121–112	W 112–100	✓correct	+3
Jan 11	vs POR	83%	126–109	W 139–77	✓correct	+45
Jan 10	at MIA	47%	112–111	W 128–120	✓correct	+7
Jan 8	at WAS	63%	123–114	W 136–128	✓correct	−1
Jan 5	at BKN	55%	119–114	L 115–124	✗missed	−14
Jan 3	at ATL	49%	121–119	L 138–141	✗missed	−5
Jan 2	vs BOS	49%	113–116	W 127–123	✗missed	+7
Dec 31	vs BKN	67%	120–114	W 124–108	✓correct	+10
Dec 29	at DEN	41%	112–114	W 119–93	✗missed	+28
Dec 27	vs NYK	63%	117–113	W 129–120	✓correct	+5
Dec 26	vs MIN	65%	118–113	W 129–106	✓correct	+18
Dec 23	vs LAL	63%	119–115	L 120–129	✗missed	−13
Dec 21	vs LAC	65%	117–112	W 134–115	✓correct	+14
Dec 18	vs MEM	75%	120–109	W 116–97	✓correct	+8
Dec 16	at DEN	35%	111–116	W 118–117	✗missed	+6
Dec 14	at SAC	41%	114–116	L 123–128	✓correct	−3
Dec 11	vs UTA	79%	120–106	W 134–120	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	vs GSW	68%	118–111	W 138–136	✓correct	−5
Dec 6	at HOU	47%	112–111	L 101–110	✗missed	−10
Dec 2	at DAL	47%	115–114	W 126–120	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	vs LAL	70%	119–111	W 133–110	✓correct	+15
Nov 28	at MIN	35%	109–114	L 103–106	✓correct	+2
Nov 25	vs PHI	67%	117–111	L 123–127	✗missed	−10
Nov 22	vs CHI	67%	116–110	W 116–102	✓correct	+8
Nov 19	at POR	51%	115–112	W 134–91	✓correct	+40
Nov 18	at GSW	41%	113–115	W 130–123	✗missed	+9
Nov 16	at GSW	35%	111–116	W 128–109	✗missed	+24
Nov 14	vs SAS	72%	119–110	W 123–87	✓correct	+27
Nov 12	at PHX	39%	113–116	W 111–99	✗missed	+15
Nov 10	at SAC	47%	115–114	L 98–105	✗missed	−8
Nov 8	vs CLE	65%	116–111	W 128–120	✓correct	+3
Nov 6	vs ATL	53%	116–117	W 126–117	✗missed	+10
Nov 3	vs GSW	61%	117–114	L 139–141	✗missed	−5
Nov 1	vs NOP	65%	117–112	L 106–110	✗missed	−9
Oct 30	vs DET	68%	117–110	W 124–112	✓correct	+5
Oct 29	vs DEN	61%	114–111	L 95–128	✗missed	−36
Oct 27	at CLE	37%	110–114	W 108–105	✗missed	+7
Oct 25	at CHI	37%	113–117	W 124–104	✗missed	+24

2022-23

10.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.9 to 11.6; 17th smallest of 30

+1.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.6 to 4.1

12.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

57%

winner picked

82 games involving OKC

40 / 39.6

actual / expected wins

gap +0.4

0.253

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	OKC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	vs MEM	47%	122–123	W 115–100	✗missed	+16
Apr 6	at UTA	70%	124–116	W 114–98	✓correct	+8
Apr 4	at GSW	40%	116–120	L 125–136	✓correct	−7
Apr 2	vs PHX	42%	115–118	L 118–128	✓correct	−7
Mar 31	at IND	63%	121–116	L 117–121	✗missed	−9
Mar 29	vs DET	68%	115–108	W 107–106	✓correct	−6
Mar 28	vs CHA	65%	113–107	L 134–137	✗missed	−9
Mar 26	at POR	80%	124–111	W 118–112	✓correct	−7
Mar 24	at LAL	45%	114–116	L 111–116	✓correct	−3
Mar 23	at LAC	53%	114–113	L 105–127	✗missed	−23
Mar 21	at LAC	47%	115–116	W 101–100	✗missed	+2
Mar 19	vs PHX	60%	117–113	W 124–120	✓correct	±0
Mar 16	at TOR	58%	115–112	L 111–128	✗missed	−20
Mar 14	vs BKN	53%	117–116	W 121–107	✓correct	+13
Mar 12	at SAS	68%	121–114	W 102–90	✓correct	+5
Mar 11	at NOP	53%	119–118	W 110–96	✓correct	+13
Mar 8	at PHX	30%	113–121	L 101–132	✓correct	−23
Mar 7	vs GSW	58%	116–113	W 137–128	✓correct	+6
Mar 5	vs UTA	74%	124–114	W 129–119	✓correct	±0
Mar 3	vs UTA	58%	119–116	W 130–103	✓correct	+24
Mar 1	vs LAL	53%	119–118	L 117–123	✗missed	−7
Feb 28	vs SAC	58%	120–117	L 117–123	✗missed	−9
Feb 26	vs SAC	63%	122–117	L 115–124	✗missed	−14
Feb 24	at PHX	37%	116–121	L 115–124	✓correct	−4
Feb 23	at UTA	47%	122–123	L 119–120	✓correct	±0
Feb 15	vs HOU	83%	124–109	W 133–96	✓correct	+22
Feb 13	vs NOP	58%	120–117	L 100–103	✗missed	−6
Feb 10	at POR	55%	121–119	W 138–129	✓correct	+7
Feb 7	at LAL	53%	119–118	W 133–130	✓correct	+2
Feb 6	at GSW	37%	113–118	L 114–141	✓correct	−22
Feb 4	vs HOU	87%	123–105	W 153–121	✓correct	+14
Feb 1	at HOU	70%	123–115	L 106–112	✗missed	−14
Jan 30	vs GSW	58%	118–115	L 120–128	✗missed	−11
Jan 27	vs CLE	58%	112–109	W 112–100	✓correct	+9
Jan 25	vs ATL	68%	121–114	L 132–137	✗missed	−12
Jan 22	at DEN	32%	111–118	W 101–99	✗missed	+9
Jan 20	at SAC	40%	115–119	L 113–118	✓correct	−1
Jan 18	vs IND	68%	120–113	W 126–106	✓correct	+13
Jan 15	at BKN	22%	110–122	W 112–102	✗missed	+22
Jan 13	at CHI	45%	115–117	W 124–110	✗missed	+16
Jan 12	at PHI	37%	111–116	W 133–114	✗missed	+24
Jan 10	at MIA	63%	114–109	L 111–112	✗missed	−6
Jan 8	vs DAL	47%	115–116	W 120–109	✗missed	+12
Jan 6	vs WAS	37%	112–117	W 127–110	✗missed	+22
Jan 4	at ORL	74%	121–111	L 115–126	✗missed	−21
Jan 3	vs BOS	28%	110–119	W 150–117	✗missed	+42
Dec 31	vs PHI	37%	112–117	L 96–115	✓correct	−14
Dec 29	at CHA	72%	121–112	L 113–121	✗missed	−17
Dec 27	vs SAS	68%	120–113	W 130–114	✓correct	+9
Dec 23	vs NOP	37%	112–117	L 125–128	✓correct	+2
Dec 21	vs POR	53%	118–117	W 101–98	✓correct	+2
Dec 19	vs POR	42%	117–120	W 123–121	✗missed	+5
Dec 17	vs MEM	28%	110–119	W 115–109	✗missed	+15
Dec 16	vs MIN	40%	112–116	L 110–112	✓correct	+2
Dec 14	vs MIA	45%	110–112	L 108–110	✓correct	±0
Dec 12	at DAL	40%	113–117	L 114–121	✓correct	−3
Dec 10	at CLE	47%	109–110	L 102–110	✓correct	−7
Dec 7	at MEM	35%	110–116	L 102–123	✓correct	−15
Dec 5	at ATL	45%	113–115	W 121–114	✗missed	+9
Dec 3	at MIN	40%	113–117	W 135–128	✗missed	+11
Nov 30	vs SAS	53%	114–113	W 119–111	✓correct	+7
Nov 28	at NOP	30%	111–119	L 101–105	✓correct	+4
Nov 26	at HOU	68%	121–114	L 105–118	✗missed	−20
Nov 25	vs CHI	35%	112–118	W 123–119	✗missed	+10
Nov 23	vs DEN	40%	114–118	L 126–131	✓correct	−1
Nov 21	vs NYK	40%	113–117	L 119–129	✓correct	−6
Nov 18	at MEM	32%	107–114	L 110–121	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	at WAS	40%	109–113	W 121–120	✗missed	+5
Nov 14	at BOS	24%	109–120	L 122–126	✓correct	+7
Nov 13	at NYK	37%	110–115	W 145–135	✗missed	+15
Nov 11	vs TOR	30%	105–113	W 132–113	✗missed	+27
Nov 9	vs MIL	42%	107–110	L 132–136	✓correct	−1
Nov 7	at DET	45%	110–112	L 103–112	✓correct	−7
Nov 5	at MIL	32%	106–113	L 94–108	✓correct	−7
Nov 3	vs DEN	32%	110–117	L 110–122	✓correct	−5
Nov 1	vs ORL	60%	111–107	W 116–108	✓correct	+4
Oct 29	at DAL	19%	102–116	W 117–111	✗missed	+20
Oct 27	vs LAC	37%	107–112	W 118–110	✗missed	+13
Oct 25	vs LAC	42%	111–114	W 108–94	✗missed	+17
Oct 23	vs MIN	28%	109–118	L 106–116	✓correct	−1
Oct 22	at DEN	28%	108–117	L 117–122	✓correct	+4
Oct 19	at MIN	35%	109–115	L 108–115	✓correct	−1

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.7 to 12.3; 24th smallest of 30

+2.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 1.7 to 4.1

14.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

71%

winner picked

384 games involving OKC

269 / 236.4

actual / expected wins

gap +32.6

0.196

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 384 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	OKC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs WAS	72%	115–107	W 114–75	✓correct	+31
Nov 6	at MEM	62%	116–112	W 128–97	✓correct	+27
Nov 4	vs CLE	61%	113–110	W 124–116	✓correct	+5
Nov 2	at CLE	41%	110–113	W 117–112	✗missed	+8
Oct 31	at HOU	47%	109–110	L 98–119	✓correct	−20
Oct 28	at DAL	72%	122–114	L 96–120	✗missed	−32
Oct 26	vs PHX	76%	115–105	W 125–114	✓correct	+1
Oct 25	vs LAC	74%	117–108	W 108–101	✓correct	−2
Oct 22	vs DEN	69%	117–110	W 96–84	✓correct	+5
Oct 20	at SAS	50%	112–111	W 116–104	✓correct	+11
May 30 PO	vs SAS	33%	106–109	L 103–111	✓correct	−5
May 28 PO	at SAS	19%	97–110	L 91–118	✓correct	−14
May 26 PO	vs SAS	83%	115–101	W 127–114	✓correct	−1
May 24 PO	at SAS	26%	104–113	L 82–103	✓correct	−12
May 22 PO	at SAS	39%	107–111	W 123–108	✗missed	+19
May 20 PO	vs SAS	76%	112–102	W 122–113	✓correct	−1
May 18 PO	vs SAS	76%	111–101	L 115–122	✗missed	−17
May 11 PO	at LAL	76%	106–96	W 115–110	✓correct	−5
May 9 PO	at LAL	83%	109–95	W 131–108	✓correct	+9
May 7 PO	vs LAL	64%	107–102	W 125–107	✓correct	+13
May 5 PO	vs LAL	59%	108–105	W 108–90	✓correct	+15
Apr 27 PO	at PHX	60%	112–108	W 131–122	✓correct	+5
Apr 25 PO	at PHX	68%	112–105	W 121–109	✓correct	+5
Apr 22 PO	vs PHX	82%	114–101	W 120–107	✓correct	±0
Apr 19 PO	vs PHX	78%	116–105	W 119–84	✓correct	+24
Apr 12	vs PHX	87%	121–104	L 103–135	✗missed	−49
Apr 10	at DEN	22%	112–123	L 107–127	✓correct	−9
Apr 8	at LAC	56%	112–110	W 128–110	✓correct	+16
Apr 7	at LAL	71%	121–113	W 123–87	✓correct	+28
Apr 5	vs UTA	92%	127–106	W 146–111	✓correct	+14
Apr 2	vs LAL	69%	118–111	W 139–96	✓correct	+36
Mar 30	vs DET	74%	119–110	W 114–110	✓correct	−5
Mar 29	vs NYK	53%	112–111	W 111–100	✓correct	+10
Mar 27	vs CHI	83%	126–112	W 131–113	✓correct	+4
Mar 25	at BOS	61%	113–109	L 109–119	✗missed	−14
Mar 23	at PHI	76%	118–108	W 123–103	✓correct	+10
Mar 21	at WAS	87%	125–108	W 132–111	✓correct	+4
Mar 18	at BKN	81%	116–103	W 121–92	✓correct	+16
Mar 17	at ORL	56%	114–112	W 113–108	✓correct	+3
Mar 15	vs MIN	76%	120–110	W 116–103	✓correct	+3
Mar 12	vs BOS	67%	110–104	W 104–102	✓correct	−4
Mar 9	vs DEN	78%	122–111	W 129–126	✓correct	−8
Mar 7	vs GSW	74%	116–107	W 104–97	✓correct	−2
Mar 4	at NYK	47%	112–113	W 103–100	✗missed	+4
Mar 3	at CHI	80%	122–110	W 116–108	✓correct	−4
Mar 1	at DAL	86%	126–110	W 100–87	✓correct	−3
Feb 27	vs DEN	71%	120–112	W 127–121	✓correct	−2
Feb 25	at DET	34%	112–118	L 116–124	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	at TOR	47%	113–114	W 116–107	✗missed	+10
Feb 22	vs CLE	53%	113–112	W 121–113	✓correct	+7
Feb 20	vs BKN	80%	114–102	W 105–86	✓correct	+7
Feb 12	vs MIL	80%	116–104	L 93–110	✗missed	−29
Feb 11	at PHX	61%	113–109	W 136–109	✓correct	+23
Feb 9	at LAL	47%	113–114	W 119–110	✗missed	+10
Feb 7	vs HOU	71%	114–106	L 106–112	✗missed	−14
Feb 4	at SAS	24%	109–119	L 106–116	✓correct	±0
Feb 3	vs ORL	80%	120–108	W 128–92	✓correct	+24
Feb 1	at DEN	53%	112–111	W 121–111	✓correct	+9
Jan 29	at MIN	47%	117–118	L 111–123	✓correct	−11
Jan 27	vs NOP	86%	126–110	W 104–95	✓correct	−7
Jan 25	vs TOR	78%	120–109	L 101–103	✗missed	−13
Jan 23	vs IND	86%	123–107	L 114–117	✗missed	−19
Jan 21	at MIL	58%	116–113	W 122–102	✓correct	+17
Jan 19	at CLE	56%	118–116	W 136–104	✓correct	+30
Jan 17	at MIA	64%	121–116	L 120–122	✗missed	−7
Jan 15	at HOU	53%	115–114	W 111–91	✓correct	+19
Jan 13	vs SAS	80%	122–110	W 119–98	✓correct	+9
Jan 11	vs MIA	80%	124–112	W 124–112	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	at MEM	71%	123–115	W 117–116	✓correct	−7
Jan 7	vs UTA	87%	127–110	W 129–125	✓correct	−13
Jan 5	vs CHA	90%	128–109	L 97–124	✗missed	−46
Jan 4	at PHX	41%	114–117	L 105–108	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	at GSW	58%	119–116	W 131–94	✓correct	+34
Dec 31	vs POR	89%	126–108	W 124–95	✓correct	+11
Dec 29	vs ATL	92%	131–110	W 140–129	✓correct	−10
Dec 28	vs PHI	87%	125–108	W 129–104	✓correct	+8
Dec 25	vs SAS	82%	126–113	L 102–117	✗missed	−28
Dec 23	at SAS	31%	113–120	L 110–130	✓correct	−13
Dec 22	vs MEM	85%	123–108	W 119–103	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	at MIN	41%	113–116	L 107–112	✓correct	−2
Dec 18	vs LAC	89%	125–107	W 122–101	✓correct	+3
Dec 10	vs PHX	82%	123–110	W 138–89	✓correct	+36
Dec 7	at UTA	64%	121–116	W 131–101	✓correct	+25
Dec 5	vs DAL	89%	125–107	W 132–111	✓correct	+3
Dec 2	at GSW	53%	113–112	W 124–112	✓correct	+11
Nov 30	at POR	64%	119–114	W 123–115	✓correct	+3
Nov 28	vs PHX	83%	123–109	W 123–119	✓correct	−10
Nov 26	vs MIN	85%	124–109	W 113–105	✓correct	−7
Nov 23	vs POR	89%	127–109	W 122–95	✓correct	+9
Nov 21	at UTA	71%	120–112	W 144–112	✓correct	+24
Nov 19	vs SAC	93%	129–106	W 113–99	✓correct	−9
Nov 17	at NOP	85%	127–112	W 126–109	✓correct	+2
Nov 15	at CHA	85%	126–111	W 109–96	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	vs LAL	85%	126–111	W 121–92	✓correct	+14
Nov 11	vs GSW	82%	123–110	W 126–102	✓correct	+11
Nov 9	at MEM	71%	123–115	W 114–100	✓correct	+6
Nov 7	at SAC	64%	118–113	W 132–101	✓correct	+26
Nov 5	at POR	53%	117–116	L 119–121	✗missed	−3
Nov 4	at LAC	64%	112–107	W 126–107	✓correct	+14
Nov 2	vs NOP	85%	119–104	W 137–106	✓correct	+16
Oct 30	vs WAS	83%	117–103	W 127–108	✓correct	+5
Oct 28	vs SAC	71%	116–108	W 107–101	✓correct	−2
Oct 27	at DAL	76%	122–112	W 101–94	✓correct	−3
Oct 25	at ATL	69%	123–116	W 117–100	✓correct	+10
Oct 23	at IND	53%	113–112	W 141–135	✓correct	+5
Oct 21	vs HOU	78%	116–105	W 125–124	✓correct	−10
Jun 22 PO	vs IND	77%	116–105	W 103–91	✓correct	+1
Jun 19 PO	at IND	51%	109–108	L 91–108	✗missed	−18
Jun 16 PO	vs IND	73%	115–106	W 120–109	✓correct	+2
Jun 13 PO	at IND	46%	109–110	W 111–104	✗missed	+8
Jun 11 PO	at IND	46%	109–110	L 107–116	✓correct	−8
Jun 8 PO	vs IND	73%	116–107	W 123–107	✓correct	+7
Jun 5 PO	vs IND	79%	116–104	L 110–111	✗missed	−13
May 28 PO	vs MIN	64%	109–104	W 124–94	✓correct	+25
May 26 PO	at MIN	56%	108–105	W 128–126	✓correct	−1
May 24 PO	at MIN	61%	107–102	L 101–143	✗missed	−47
May 22 PO	vs MIN	73%	111–102	W 118–103	✓correct	+6
May 20 PO	vs MIN	67%	108–102	W 114–88	✓correct	+20
May 18 PO	vs DEN	79%	118–106	W 125–93	✓correct	+20
May 15 PO	at DEN	61%	109–104	L 107–119	✗missed	−17
May 13 PO	vs DEN	81%	118–105	W 112–105	✓correct	−6
May 11 PO	at DEN	59%	109–105	W 92–87	✓correct	+1
May 9 PO	at DEN	51%	109–108	L 104–113	✗missed	−10
May 7 PO	vs DEN	75%	117–107	W 149–106	✓correct	+33
May 5 PO	vs DEN	75%	117–107	L 119–121	✗missed	−12
Apr 26 PO	at MEM	71%	114–105	W 117–115	✓correct	−7
Apr 24 PO	at MEM	64%	114–108	W 114–108	✓correct	±0
Apr 22 PO	vs MEM	79%	120–108	W 118–99	✓correct	+7
Apr 20 PO	vs MEM	79%	119–107	W 131–80	✓correct	+39
Apr 13	at NOP	79%	125–112	W 115–100	✓correct	+2
Apr 11	at UTA	66%	122–115	W 145–111	✓correct	+27
Apr 9	at PHX	71%	118–109	W 125–112	✓correct	+4
Apr 8	vs LAL	77%	123–112	W 136–120	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	vs LAL	84%	126–111	L 99–126	✗missed	−42
Apr 4	at HOU	56%	117–114	L 111–125	✗missed	−17
Apr 2	vs DET	82%	126–112	W 119–103	✓correct	+2
Mar 31	vs CHI	79%	124–112	W 145–117	✓correct	+16
Mar 29	vs IND	81%	123–110	W 132–111	✓correct	+8
Mar 27	vs MEM	81%	124–111	W 125–104	✓correct	+8
Mar 25	at SAC	71%	119–110	W 121–105	✓correct	+7
Mar 23	at LAC	56%	114–111	W 103–101	✓correct	−1
Mar 21	vs CHA	89%	128–109	W 141–106	✓correct	+16
Mar 19	vs PHI	77%	128–117	W 133–100	✓correct	+22
Mar 16	at MIL	46%	120–121	W 121–105	✗missed	+17
Mar 15	at DET	51%	121–120	W 113–107	✓correct	+5
Mar 12	at BOS	43%	113–115	W 118–112	✗missed	+8
Mar 10	vs DEN	81%	126–113	L 127–140	✗missed	−26
Mar 9	vs DEN	73%	125–116	W 127–103	✓correct	+15
Mar 7	vs POR	59%	123–120	W 107–89	✓correct	+15
Mar 5	at MEM	51%	122–121	W 120–103	✓correct	+16
Mar 3	vs HOU	79%	123–111	W 137–128	✓correct	−3
Mar 2	at SAS	69%	121–113	W 146–132	✓correct	+6
Feb 28	at ATL	59%	123–119	W 135–119	✓correct	+12
Feb 26	at BKN	80%	114–100	W 129–121	✓correct	−6
Feb 24	vs MIN	79%	124–112	L 128–131	✗missed	−15
Feb 23	at MIN	54%	116–114	W 130–123	✓correct	+5
Feb 21	at UTA	75%	123–112	W 130–107	✓correct	+12
Feb 13	at MIN	69%	119–111	L 101–116	✗missed	−23
Feb 12	vs MIA	86%	124–107	W 115–101	✓correct	−3
Feb 10	vs NOP	89%	131–112	W 137–101	✓correct	+17
Feb 8	at MEM	33%	114–120	W 125–112	✗missed	+19
Feb 7	vs TOR	85%	125–109	W 121–109	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	vs PHX	77%	123–112	W 140–109	✓correct	+20
Feb 3	vs MIL	77%	126–115	W 125–96	✓correct	+18
Feb 1	vs SAC	79%	124–112	W 144–110	✓correct	+22
Jan 29	at GSW	71%	117–108	L 109–116	✗missed	−16
Jan 26	at POR	71%	116–107	W 118–108	✓correct	+1
Jan 23	vs DAL	81%	123–110	L 115–121	✗missed	−19
Jan 22	vs UTA	85%	124–108	W 123–114	✓correct	−7
Jan 19	vs BKN	81%	121–108	W 127–101	✓correct	+13
Jan 17	at DAL	69%	117–109	L 98–106	✗missed	−16
Jan 16	vs CLE	71%	123–115	W 134–114	✓correct	+12
Jan 14	at PHI	71%	115–106	W 118–102	✓correct	+7
Jan 12	at WAS	71%	119–110	W 136–95	✓correct	+32
Jan 10	at NYK	46%	112–113	W 126–101	✗missed	+26
Jan 8	at CLE	41%	115–118	L 122–129	✓correct	−4
Jan 5	vs BOS	59%	111–108	W 105–92	✓correct	+10
Jan 3	vs NYK	71%	117–109	W 117–107	✓correct	+2
Jan 2	vs LAC	82%	121–107	W 116–98	✓correct	+4
Dec 31	vs MIN	82%	120–106	W 113–105	✓correct	−6
Dec 29	vs MEM	71%	121–113	W 130–106	✓correct	+16
Dec 28	at CHA	79%	115–102	W 106–94	✓correct	−1
Dec 26	at IND	59%	116–112	W 120–114	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	vs WAS	86%	127–110	W 123–105	✓correct	+1
Dec 20	at MIA	51%	110–109	W 104–97	✓correct	+6
Dec 19	at ORL	71%	110–101	W 105–99	✓correct	−3
Dec 10	vs DAL	67%	121–115	W 118–104	✓correct	+8
Dec 7	at NOP	73%	117–107	W 119–109	✓correct	±0
Dec 5	at TOR	64%	114–108	W 129–92	✓correct	+31
Dec 3	vs UTA	84%	120–105	W 133–106	✓correct	+12
Dec 1	at HOU	43%	112–114	L 116–119	✓correct	−1
Nov 29	at LAL	56%	113–110	W 101–93	✓correct	+5
Nov 27	at GSW	46%	112–113	W 105–101	✗missed	+5
Nov 25	at SAC	51%	111–110	W 130–109	✓correct	+20
Nov 20	vs POR	82%	119–105	W 109–99	✓correct	−4
Nov 19	at SAS	61%	113–108	L 104–110	✗missed	−11
Nov 17	vs DAL	81%	121–108	L 119–121	✗missed	−15
Nov 15	vs PHX	79%	121–109	W 99–83	✓correct	+4
Nov 13	vs NOP	84%	123–108	W 106–88	✓correct	+3
Nov 11	vs LAC	73%	117–108	W 134–128	✓correct	−3
Nov 10	vs GSW	75%	120–110	L 116–127	✗missed	−21
Nov 8	vs HOU	73%	118–109	W 126–107	✓correct	+10
Nov 6	at DEN	66%	110–103	L 122–124	✗missed	−9
Nov 4	vs ORL	82%	119–105	W 102–86	✓correct	+2
Nov 2	at LAC	51%	107–106	W 105–92	✓correct	+12
Nov 1	at POR	66%	113–106	W 137–114	✓correct	+16
Oct 30	vs SAS	79%	117–105	W 105–93	✓correct	±0
Oct 27	vs ATL	81%	121–108	W 128–104	✓correct	+11
Oct 26	at CHI	51%	111–110	W 114–95	✓correct	+18
Oct 24	at DEN	38%	103–107	W 102–87	✗missed	+19
May 18 PO	at DAL	39%	101–104	L 116–117	✓correct	+2
May 15 PO	vs DAL	67%	110–104	L 92–104	✗missed	−18
May 13 PO	at DAL	43%	101–102	W 100–96	✗missed	+5
May 11 PO	at DAL	51%	103–100	L 101–105	✗missed	−7
May 9 PO	vs DAL	72%	113–104	L 110–119	✗missed	−18
May 7 PO	vs DAL	72%	115–106	W 117–95	✓correct	+13
Apr 29 PO	at NOP	49%	107–105	W 97–89	✓correct	+6
Apr 27 PO	at NOP	41%	108–110	W 106–85	✗missed	+23
Apr 24 PO	vs NOP	68%	113–106	W 124–92	✓correct	+25
Apr 21 PO	vs NOP	68%	114–107	W 94–92	✓correct	−5
Apr 14	vs DAL	78%	120–107	W 135–86	✓correct	+36
Apr 12	vs MIL	72%	118–109	W 125–107	✓correct	+9
Apr 10	vs SAS	75%	119–108	W 127–89	✓correct	+27
Apr 9	vs SAC	65%	113–108	W 112–105	✓correct	+2
Apr 7	at CHA	47%	112–111	W 121–118	✓correct	+2
Apr 5	at IND	35%	112–117	L 112–126	✓correct	−9
Apr 3	at BOS	27%	104–114	L 100–135	✓correct	−25
Apr 2	at PHI	39%	111–114	L 105–109	✓correct	−1
Mar 31	at NYK	39%	107–110	W 113–112	✗missed	+4
Mar 29	vs PHX	61%	113–110	W 128–103	✓correct	+22
Mar 27	vs HOU	70%	116–108	L 126–132	✗missed	−14
Mar 26	at NOP	37%	109–113	W 119–112	✗missed	+11
Mar 24	at MIL	43%	115–116	L 93–118	✓correct	−24
Mar 22	at TOR	71%	122–109	W 123–103	✓correct	+7
Mar 20	vs UTA	73%	121–111	W 119–107	✓correct	+2
Mar 16	at MEM	59%	113–106	W 118–112	✓correct	−1
Mar 14	vs DAL	75%	122–111	W 126–119	✓correct	−4
Mar 12	vs IND	72%	121–112	L 111–121	✗missed	−19
Mar 10	vs MEM	81%	120–105	W 124–93	✓correct	+16
Mar 8	vs MIA	70%	118–110	W 107–100	✓correct	−1
Mar 6	at POR	61%	115–107	W 128–120	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	at LAL	43%	120–121	L 104–116	✓correct	−11
Mar 3	at PHX	47%	114–113	W 118–110	✓correct	+7
Feb 29	at SAS	67%	122–111	L 118–132	✗missed	−25
Feb 27	vs HOU	70%	120–112	W 112–95	✓correct	+9
Feb 25	at HOU	57%	118–112	W 123–110	✓correct	+7
Feb 23	vs WAS	83%	125–108	W 147–106	✓correct	+24
Feb 22	vs LAC	68%	116–109	W 129–107	✓correct	+15
Feb 13	at ORL	47%	112–111	W 127–113	✓correct	+13
Feb 11	vs SAC	68%	119–112	W 127–113	✓correct	+7
Feb 10	at DAL	47%	116–115	L 111–146	✗missed	−36
Feb 6	at UTA	47%	118–117	L 117–124	✗missed	−8
Feb 4	vs TOR	68%	117–110	W 135–127	✓correct	+1
Feb 2	vs CHA	81%	117–102	W 126–106	✓correct	+5
Jan 31	vs DEN	68%	112–105	W 105–100	✓correct	−2
Jan 29	vs MIN	61%	113–110	L 101–107	✗missed	−9
Jan 28	at DET	53%	120–116	L 104–120	✗missed	−20
Jan 26	at NOP	43%	114–115	W 107–83	✗missed	+25
Jan 24	at SAS	55%	121–116	W 140–114	✓correct	+21
Jan 23	vs POR	82%	125–109	W 111–109	✓correct	−14
Jan 20	at MIN	41%	112–114	W 102–97	✗missed	+7
Jan 18	at UTA	43%	115–116	W 134–129	✗missed	+6
Jan 16	at LAC	39%	111–114	L 117–128	✓correct	−8
Jan 15	at LAL	53%	119–115	L 105–112	✗missed	−11
Jan 13	vs ORL	72%	121–112	W 112–100	✓correct	+3
Jan 11	vs POR	83%	126–109	W 139–77	✓correct	+45
Jan 10	at MIA	47%	112–111	W 128–120	✓correct	+7
Jan 8	at WAS	63%	123–114	W 136–128	✓correct	−1
Jan 5	at BKN	55%	119–114	L 115–124	✗missed	−14
Jan 3	at ATL	49%	121–119	L 138–141	✗missed	−5
Jan 2	vs BOS	49%	113–116	W 127–123	✗missed	+7
Dec 31	vs BKN	67%	120–114	W 124–108	✓correct	+10
Dec 29	at DEN	41%	112–114	W 119–93	✗missed	+28
Dec 27	vs NYK	63%	117–113	W 129–120	✓correct	+5
Dec 26	vs MIN	65%	118–113	W 129–106	✓correct	+18
Dec 23	vs LAL	63%	119–115	L 120–129	✗missed	−13
Dec 21	vs LAC	65%	117–112	W 134–115	✓correct	+14
Dec 18	vs MEM	75%	120–109	W 116–97	✓correct	+8
Dec 16	at DEN	35%	111–116	W 118–117	✗missed	+6
Dec 14	at SAC	41%	114–116	L 123–128	✓correct	−3
Dec 11	vs UTA	79%	120–106	W 134–120	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	vs GSW	68%	118–111	W 138–136	✓correct	−5
Dec 6	at HOU	47%	112–111	L 101–110	✗missed	−10
Dec 2	at DAL	47%	115–114	W 126–120	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	vs LAL	70%	119–111	W 133–110	✓correct	+15
Nov 28	at MIN	35%	109–114	L 103–106	✓correct	+2
Nov 25	vs PHI	67%	117–111	L 123–127	✗missed	−10
Nov 22	vs CHI	67%	116–110	W 116–102	✓correct	+8
Nov 19	at POR	51%	115–112	W 134–91	✓correct	+40
Nov 18	at GSW	41%	113–115	W 130–123	✗missed	+9
Nov 16	at GSW	35%	111–116	W 128–109	✗missed	+24
Nov 14	vs SAS	72%	119–110	W 123–87	✓correct	+27
Nov 12	at PHX	39%	113–116	W 111–99	✗missed	+15
Nov 10	at SAC	47%	115–114	L 98–105	✗missed	−8
Nov 8	vs CLE	65%	116–111	W 128–120	✓correct	+3
Nov 6	vs ATL	53%	116–117	W 126–117	✗missed	+10
Nov 3	vs GSW	61%	117–114	L 139–141	✗missed	−5
Nov 1	vs NOP	65%	117–112	L 106–110	✗missed	−9
Oct 30	vs DET	68%	117–110	W 124–112	✓correct	+5
Oct 29	vs DEN	61%	114–111	L 95–128	✗missed	−36
Oct 27	at CLE	37%	110–114	W 108–105	✗missed	+7
Oct 25	at CHI	37%	113–117	W 124–104	✗missed	+24
Apr 9	vs MEM	47%	122–123	W 115–100	✗missed	+16
Apr 6	at UTA	70%	124–116	W 114–98	✓correct	+8
Apr 4	at GSW	40%	116–120	L 125–136	✓correct	−7
Apr 2	vs PHX	42%	115–118	L 118–128	✓correct	−7
Mar 31	at IND	63%	121–116	L 117–121	✗missed	−9
Mar 29	vs DET	68%	115–108	W 107–106	✓correct	−6
Mar 28	vs CHA	65%	113–107	L 134–137	✗missed	−9
Mar 26	at POR	80%	124–111	W 118–112	✓correct	−7
Mar 24	at LAL	45%	114–116	L 111–116	✓correct	−3
Mar 23	at LAC	53%	114–113	L 105–127	✗missed	−23
Mar 21	at LAC	47%	115–116	W 101–100	✗missed	+2
Mar 19	vs PHX	60%	117–113	W 124–120	✓correct	±0
Mar 16	at TOR	58%	115–112	L 111–128	✗missed	−20
Mar 14	vs BKN	53%	117–116	W 121–107	✓correct	+13
Mar 12	at SAS	68%	121–114	W 102–90	✓correct	+5
Mar 11	at NOP	53%	119–118	W 110–96	✓correct	+13
Mar 8	at PHX	30%	113–121	L 101–132	✓correct	−23
Mar 7	vs GSW	58%	116–113	W 137–128	✓correct	+6
Mar 5	vs UTA	74%	124–114	W 129–119	✓correct	±0
Mar 3	vs UTA	58%	119–116	W 130–103	✓correct	+24
Mar 1	vs LAL	53%	119–118	L 117–123	✗missed	−7
Feb 28	vs SAC	58%	120–117	L 117–123	✗missed	−9
Feb 26	vs SAC	63%	122–117	L 115–124	✗missed	−14
Feb 24	at PHX	37%	116–121	L 115–124	✓correct	−4
Feb 23	at UTA	47%	122–123	L 119–120	✓correct	±0
Feb 15	vs HOU	83%	124–109	W 133–96	✓correct	+22
Feb 13	vs NOP	58%	120–117	L 100–103	✗missed	−6
Feb 10	at POR	55%	121–119	W 138–129	✓correct	+7
Feb 7	at LAL	53%	119–118	W 133–130	✓correct	+2
Feb 6	at GSW	37%	113–118	L 114–141	✓correct	−22
Feb 4	vs HOU	87%	123–105	W 153–121	✓correct	+14
Feb 1	at HOU	70%	123–115	L 106–112	✗missed	−14
Jan 30	vs GSW	58%	118–115	L 120–128	✗missed	−11
Jan 27	vs CLE	58%	112–109	W 112–100	✓correct	+9
Jan 25	vs ATL	68%	121–114	L 132–137	✗missed	−12
Jan 22	at DEN	32%	111–118	W 101–99	✗missed	+9
Jan 20	at SAC	40%	115–119	L 113–118	✓correct	−1
Jan 18	vs IND	68%	120–113	W 126–106	✓correct	+13
Jan 15	at BKN	22%	110–122	W 112–102	✗missed	+22
Jan 13	at CHI	45%	115–117	W 124–110	✗missed	+16
Jan 12	at PHI	37%	111–116	W 133–114	✗missed	+24
Jan 10	at MIA	63%	114–109	L 111–112	✗missed	−6
Jan 8	vs DAL	47%	115–116	W 120–109	✗missed	+12
Jan 6	vs WAS	37%	112–117	W 127–110	✗missed	+22
Jan 4	at ORL	74%	121–111	L 115–126	✗missed	−21
Jan 3	vs BOS	28%	110–119	W 150–117	✗missed	+42
Dec 31	vs PHI	37%	112–117	L 96–115	✓correct	−14
Dec 29	at CHA	72%	121–112	L 113–121	✗missed	−17
Dec 27	vs SAS	68%	120–113	W 130–114	✓correct	+9
Dec 23	vs NOP	37%	112–117	L 125–128	✓correct	+2
Dec 21	vs POR	53%	118–117	W 101–98	✓correct	+2
Dec 19	vs POR	42%	117–120	W 123–121	✗missed	+5
Dec 17	vs MEM	28%	110–119	W 115–109	✗missed	+15
Dec 16	vs MIN	40%	112–116	L 110–112	✓correct	+2
Dec 14	vs MIA	45%	110–112	L 108–110	✓correct	±0
Dec 12	at DAL	40%	113–117	L 114–121	✓correct	−3
Dec 10	at CLE	47%	109–110	L 102–110	✓correct	−7
Dec 7	at MEM	35%	110–116	L 102–123	✓correct	−15
Dec 5	at ATL	45%	113–115	W 121–114	✗missed	+9
Dec 3	at MIN	40%	113–117	W 135–128	✗missed	+11
Nov 30	vs SAS	53%	114–113	W 119–111	✓correct	+7
Nov 28	at NOP	30%	111–119	L 101–105	✓correct	+4
Nov 26	at HOU	68%	121–114	L 105–118	✗missed	−20
Nov 25	vs CHI	35%	112–118	W 123–119	✗missed	+10
Nov 23	vs DEN	40%	114–118	L 126–131	✓correct	−1
Nov 21	vs NYK	40%	113–117	L 119–129	✓correct	−6
Nov 18	at MEM	32%	107–114	L 110–121	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	at WAS	40%	109–113	W 121–120	✗missed	+5
Nov 14	at BOS	24%	109–120	L 122–126	✓correct	+7
Nov 13	at NYK	37%	110–115	W 145–135	✗missed	+15
Nov 11	vs TOR	30%	105–113	W 132–113	✗missed	+27
Nov 9	vs MIL	42%	107–110	L 132–136	✓correct	−1
Nov 7	at DET	45%	110–112	L 103–112	✓correct	−7
Nov 5	at MIL	32%	106–113	L 94–108	✓correct	−7
Nov 3	vs DEN	32%	110–117	L 110–122	✓correct	−5
Nov 1	vs ORL	60%	111–107	W 116–108	✓correct	+4
Oct 29	at DAL	19%	102–116	W 117–111	✗missed	+20
Oct 27	vs LAC	37%	107–112	W 118–110	✗missed	+13
Oct 25	vs LAC	42%	111–114	W 108–94	✗missed	+17
Oct 23	vs MIN	28%	109–118	L 106–116	✓correct	−1
Oct 22	at DEN	28%	108–117	L 117–122	✓correct	+4
Oct 19	at MIN	35%	109–115	L 108–115	✓correct	−1

Surprise games

All OKC surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected OKC wins

19%OKC beat DAL117–111Oct 29, 2022-23 · forecast DAL116–102 · missed margin by 20
22%OKC beat BKN112–102Jan 15, 2022-23 · forecast BKN122–110 · missed margin by 22
28%OKC beat BOS150–117Jan 3, 2022-23 · forecast BOS119–110 · missed margin by 42
28%OKC beat MEM115–109Dec 17, 2022-23 · forecast MEM119–110 · missed margin by 15
30%OKC beat TOR132–113Nov 11, 2022-23 · forecast TOR113–105 · missed margin by 27

Most unexpected OKC losses

10%CHA beat OKC124–97Jan 5, 2025-26 · forecast OKC128–109 · missed margin by 46
13%PHX beat OKC135–103Apr 12, 2025-26 · forecast OKC121–104 · missed margin by 49
14%IND beat OKC117–114Jan 23, 2025-26 · forecast OKC123–107 · missed margin by 19
16%LAL beat OKC126–99Apr 6, 2024-25 · forecast OKC126–111 · missed margin by 42
19%SAS beat OKC117–102Dec 25, 2025-26 · forecast OKC126–113 · missed margin by 28

Largest margin misses

13%PHX beat OKC135–103Apr 12, 2025-26 · forecast OKC121–104 · missed margin by 49
39%MIN beat OKC143–101May 24, 2024-25 · playoffs · forecast OKC107–102 · missed margin by 47
10%CHA beat OKC124–97Jan 5, 2025-26 · forecast OKC128–109 · missed margin by 46
83%OKC beat POR139–77Jan 11, 2023-24 · forecast OKC126–109 · missed margin by 45
16%LAL beat OKC126–99Apr 6, 2024-25 · forecast OKC126–111 · missed margin by 42

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected OKC wins

Most unexpected OKC losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions