Western Conference · 2026-27

Minnesota Timberwolves MIN

8–3

2026-27 record

1615

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

116.5

Offensive rating

last 10 games

105.7

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

100.7

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded MIN game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 228 of 387 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of MIN's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. MIN ranks 6 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 12 8:00 PM ET

DAL Dallas Mavericks 6–4 –

@MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 8–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 8:00 PM ET

CHI Chicago Bulls 1–8 –

@MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 8–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked MIN games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 11 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

12.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.4 to 18.2

+9.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 2.5 to 16.2

14.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

73%

winner picked

11 games involving MIN

8 / 6.0

actual / expected wins

gap +2.0

0.237

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 11 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs UTA	88%	123–106	W 115–100	✓correct	−2
Nov 6	at NOP	70%	122–115	W 115–109	✓correct	−1
Nov 4	at HOU	13%	101–118	W 117–107	✗missed	+27
Nov 2	vs MIL	80%	122–110	W 112–100	✓correct	±0
Oct 31	at SAS	31%	110–117	L 111–121	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	vs LAC	56%	115–113	W 127–101	✓correct	+24
Oct 28	vs GSW	69%	118–111	L 114–119	✗missed	−12
Oct 26	at CLE	44%	112–114	L 125–127	✓correct	±0
Oct 25	vs TOR	59%	117–114	W 117–94	✓correct	+20
Oct 23	at ORL	41%	112–115	W 115–93	✗missed	+25
Oct 21	at MIA	53%	120–119	W 131–106	✓correct	+24

2025-26

12.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.1 to 14.1; 24th smallest of 30

−0.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.1 to 2.1

15.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

62%

winner picked

94 games involving MIN

55 / 53.5

actual / expected wins

gap +1.5

0.232

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 94 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 15 PO	vs SAS	53%	108–107	L 109–139	✗missed	−31
May 12 PO	at SAS	11%	102–120	L 97–126	✓correct	−11
May 10 PO	vs SAS	47%	109–110	W 114–109	✗missed	+6
May 8 PO	vs SAS	47%	109–110	L 108–115	✓correct	−6
May 6 PO	at SAS	22%	106–117	L 95–133	✓correct	−27
May 4 PO	at SAS	20%	105–117	W 104–102	✗missed	+14
Apr 30 PO	vs DEN	32%	112–119	W 110–98	✗missed	+19
Apr 27 PO	at DEN	40%	114–118	L 113–125	✓correct	−8
Apr 25 PO	vs DEN	42%	116–119	W 112–96	✗missed	+19
Apr 23 PO	vs DEN	53%	112–111	W 113–96	✓correct	+16
Apr 20 PO	at DEN	31%	110–117	W 119–114	✗missed	+12
Apr 18 PO	at DEN	31%	109–116	L 105–116	✓correct	−4
Apr 12	vs NOP	85%	122–107	W 132–126	✓correct	−9
Apr 10	at HOU	22%	106–117	W 136–132	✗missed	+15
Apr 8	at ORL	31%	113–120	L 120–132	✓correct	−5
Apr 7	at IND	74%	124–115	W 124–104	✓correct	+11
Apr 5	vs CHA	39%	108–112	L 108–122	✓correct	−10
Apr 3	at PHI	41%	115–118	L 103–115	✓correct	−9
Apr 2	at DET	34%	112–118	L 108–113	✓correct	+1
Mar 30	at DAL	66%	120–114	W 124–94	✓correct	+24
Mar 28	vs DET	39%	111–115	L 87–109	✓correct	−18
Mar 25	vs HOU	56%	114–112	W 110–108	✓correct	±0
Mar 22	at BOS	29%	110–118	W 102–92	✗missed	+18
Mar 20	vs POR	53%	117–116	L 104–108	✗missed	−5
Mar 18	vs UTA	74%	118–109	W 147–111	✓correct	+27
Mar 17	vs PHX	47%	111–112	W 116–104	✗missed	+13
Mar 15	at OKC	24%	110–120	L 103–116	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	at GSW	47%	114–115	W 127–117	✗missed	+11
Mar 11	at LAC	44%	114–116	L 128–153	✓correct	−23
Mar 10	at LAL	39%	113–117	L 106–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 7	vs ORL	61%	115–111	L 92–119	✗missed	−31
Mar 5	vs TOR	64%	118–113	W 115–107	✓correct	+3
Mar 3	vs MEM	74%	123–114	W 117–110	✓correct	−2
Mar 1	at DEN	36%	115–120	W 117–108	✗missed	+14
Feb 26	at LAC	56%	115–113	W 94–88	✓correct	+4
Feb 24	at POR	64%	122–117	W 124–121	✓correct	−2
Feb 22	vs PHI	74%	124–115	L 108–135	✗missed	−36
Feb 20	vs DAL	90%	128–109	W 122–111	✓correct	−8
Feb 11	vs POR	69%	121–114	W 133–109	✓correct	+17
Feb 9	vs ATL	59%	118–115	W 138–116	✓correct	+19
Feb 8	vs LAC	67%	119–113	L 96–115	✗missed	−25
Feb 6	vs NOP	76%	122–112	L 115–119	✗missed	−14
Feb 4	at TOR	47%	115–116	W 128–126	✗missed	+3
Feb 2	at MEM	74%	120–111	L 128–137	✗missed	−18
Jan 31	at MEM	71%	119–111	W 131–114	✓correct	+9
Jan 29	vs OKC	53%	118–117	W 123–111	✓correct	+11
Jan 28	at DAL	53%	117–116	W 118–105	✓correct	+12
Jan 26	vs GSW	64%	120–115	W 108–83	✓correct	+20
Jan 25	vs GSW	67%	122–116	L 85–111	✗missed	−32
Jan 22	vs CHI	69%	123–116	L 115–120	✗missed	−12
Jan 20	at UTA	80%	127–115	L 122–127	✗missed	−17
Jan 17	at SAS	47%	115–116	L 123–126	✓correct	−2
Jan 16	at HOU	41%	111–114	L 105–110	✓correct	−2
Jan 13	at MIL	47%	115–116	W 139–106	✗missed	+34
Jan 11	vs SAS	53%	118–117	W 104–103	✓correct	±0
Jan 10	at CLE	53%	120–119	L 134–146	✗missed	−13
Jan 8	vs CLE	64%	120–115	W 131–122	✓correct	+4
Jan 6	vs MIA	67%	120–114	W 122–94	✓correct	+22
Jan 4	at WAS	74%	122–113	W 141–115	✓correct	+17
Jan 3	at MIA	47%	116–117	W 125–115	✗missed	+11
Dec 31	at ATL	71%	124–116	L 102–126	✗missed	−32
Dec 29	at CHI	61%	119–115	W 136–101	✓correct	+31
Dec 27	vs BKN	71%	119–111	L 107–123	✗missed	−24
Dec 25	at DEN	44%	118–120	L 138–142	✓correct	−2
Dec 23	vs NYK	67%	117–111	W 115–104	✓correct	+5
Dec 21	vs MIL	74%	119–110	W 103–100	✓correct	−6
Dec 19	vs OKC	59%	116–113	W 112–107	✓correct	+2
Dec 17	vs MEM	71%	119–111	L 110–116	✗missed	−14
Dec 14	vs SAC	82%	122–109	W 117–103	✓correct	+1
Dec 12	at GSW	44%	111–113	W 127–120	✗missed	+9
Dec 8	vs PHX	71%	120–112	L 105–108	✗missed	−11
Dec 6	vs LAC	76%	122–112	W 109–106	✓correct	−7
Dec 4	at NOP	81%	124–111	W 125–116	✓correct	−4
Dec 2	at NOP	85%	124–109	W 149–142	✓correct	−8
Nov 30	vs SAS	69%	120–113	W 125–112	✓correct	+6
Nov 29	vs BOS	59%	116–113	W 119–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 26	at OKC	15%	109–124	L 105–113	✓correct	+7
Nov 24	at SAC	78%	125–114	L 112–117	✗missed	−16
Nov 21	at PHX	53%	118–117	L 113–114	✗missed	−2
Nov 19	vs WAS	91%	126–106	W 120–109	✓correct	−9
Nov 17	vs DAL	78%	122–111	W 120–96	✓correct	+13
Nov 15	vs DEN	53%	119–118	L 112–123	✗missed	−12
Nov 14	vs SAC	83%	127–113	W 124–110	✓correct	±0
Nov 10	at UTA	74%	124–115	W 120–113	✓correct	−2
Nov 9	at SAC	53%	119–118	W 144–117	✓correct	+26
Nov 7	vs UTA	78%	123–112	W 137–97	✓correct	+29
Nov 5	at NYK	47%	118–119	L 114–137	✓correct	−22
Nov 3	at BKN	64%	120–115	W 125–109	✓correct	+11
Nov 1	at CHA	69%	122–115	W 122–105	✓correct	+10
Oct 29	vs LAL	69%	114–107	L 115–116	✗missed	−8
Oct 27	vs DEN	61%	118–114	L 114–127	✗missed	−17
Oct 26	vs IND	67%	116–110	W 114–110	✓correct	−2
Oct 24	at LAL	58%	113–110	L 110–128	✗missed	−21
Oct 22	at POR	47%	113–114	W 118–114	✗missed	+5

2024-25

Across 97 graded games, MIN finished an average of 2.9 points better than the forecast margin (90% interval +0.7 to +5.2).

10.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.5 to 12.4; 15th smallest of 30

+2.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 0.7 to 5.2

13.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

55%

winner picked

97 games involving MIN

58 / 52.3

actual / expected wins

gap +5.7

0.245

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 97 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 28 PO	at OKC	36%	104–109	L 94–124	✓correct	−25
May 26 PO	vs OKC	44%	105–108	L 126–128	✓correct	+1
May 24 PO	vs OKC	39%	102–107	W 143–101	✗missed	+47
May 22 PO	at OKC	27%	102–111	L 103–118	✓correct	−6
May 20 PO	at OKC	33%	102–108	L 88–114	✓correct	−20
May 14 PO	vs GSW	69%	108–101	W 121–110	✓correct	+4
May 12 PO	at GSW	43%	98–100	W 117–110	✗missed	+9
May 10 PO	at GSW	38%	97–101	W 102–97	✗missed	+9
May 8 PO	vs GSW	77%	105–94	W 117–93	✓correct	+13
May 6 PO	vs GSW	69%	106–99	L 88–99	✗missed	−18
Apr 30 PO	at LAL	41%	103–106	W 103–96	✗missed	+10
Apr 27 PO	vs LAL	69%	109–102	W 116–113	✓correct	−4
Apr 25 PO	vs LAL	62%	106–102	W 116–104	✓correct	+8
Apr 22 PO	at LAL	56%	110–107	L 85–94	✗missed	−12
Apr 19 PO	at LAL	46%	106–107	W 117–95	✗missed	+23
Apr 13	vs UTA	84%	119–104	W 116–105	✓correct	−4
Apr 11	vs BKN	88%	121–103	W 117–91	✓correct	+8
Apr 10	at MEM	51%	112–111	W 141–125	✓correct	+15
Apr 8	at MIL	61%	114–109	L 103–110	✗missed	−12
Apr 5	at PHI	75%	119–108	W 114–109	✓correct	−6
Apr 3	at BKN	83%	120–104	W 105–90	✓correct	−1
Apr 1	at DEN	43%	116–118	W 140–139	✗missed	+3
Mar 30	vs DET	69%	118–111	W 123–104	✓correct	+12
Mar 28	vs PHX	62%	115–111	W 124–109	✓correct	+11
Mar 24	at IND	46%	113–114	L 103–119	✓correct	−15
Mar 21	vs NOP	75%	117–107	W 134–93	✓correct	+31
Mar 19	vs NOP	75%	117–107	L 115–119	✗missed	−14
Mar 17	vs IND	62%	114–110	L 130–132	✗missed	−6
Mar 16	vs UTA	85%	125–109	W 128–102	✓correct	+10
Mar 14	vs ORL	75%	115–105	W 118–111	✓correct	−3
Mar 12	at DEN	46%	117–118	W 115–95	✗missed	+21
Mar 9	vs SAS	77%	123–112	W 141–124	✓correct	+6
Mar 7	at MIA	54%	112–110	W 106–104	✓correct	±0
Mar 5	at CHA	59%	117–113	W 125–110	✓correct	+11
Mar 4	vs PHI	77%	120–109	W 126–112	✓correct	+3
Mar 2	at PHX	54%	121–119	W 116–98	✓correct	+16
Feb 28	at UTA	56%	118–115	L 116–117	✗missed	−4
Feb 27	at LAL	38%	114–118	L 102–111	✓correct	−5
Feb 24	at OKC	21%	112–124	W 131–128	✗missed	+15
Feb 23	vs OKC	46%	114–116	L 123–130	✓correct	−5
Feb 21	at HOU	36%	106–111	L 115–121	✓correct	−1
Feb 13	vs OKC	32%	111–119	W 116–101	✗missed	+23
Feb 12	vs MIL	64%	119–114	L 101–103	✗missed	−7
Feb 10	at CLE	23%	109–120	L 107–128	✓correct	−10
Feb 8	vs POR	57%	110–108	W 114–98	✓correct	+14
Feb 6	vs HOU	49%	111–112	W 127–114	✗missed	+14
Feb 5	vs CHI	73%	121–112	W 127–108	✓correct	+10
Feb 3	vs SAC	67%	120–114	L 114–116	✗missed	−8
Feb 1	vs WAS	71%	118–110	L 103–105	✗missed	−10
Jan 30	at UTA	56%	114–111	W 138–113	✓correct	+22
Jan 29	at PHX	36%	110–115	W 121–113	✗missed	+13
Jan 27	vs ATL	69%	119–112	W 100–92	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	vs DEN	41%	110–114	W 133–104	✗missed	+33
Jan 22	at DAL	41%	107–110	W 115–114	✗missed	+4
Jan 20	at MEM	33%	113–119	L 106–108	✓correct	+4
Jan 18	vs CLE	34%	108–115	L 117–124	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	at NYK	29%	107–115	W 116–99	✗missed	+25
Jan 15	vs GSW	69%	111–104	L 115–116	✗missed	−8
Jan 13	at WAS	56%	115–112	W 120–106	✓correct	+11
Jan 11	vs MEM	57%	116–114	L 125–127	✗missed	−4
Jan 9	at ORL	41%	104–107	W 104–89	✗missed	+18
Jan 7	at NOP	56%	114–111	W 104–97	✓correct	+4
Jan 6	vs LAC	49%	112–113	W 108–106	✗missed	+3
Jan 4	at DET	54%	113–111	L 105–119	✗missed	−16
Jan 2	vs BOS	41%	106–110	L 115–118	✓correct	+1
Dec 31	at OKC	18%	106–120	L 105–113	✓correct	+6
Dec 29	vs SAS	64%	114–109	W 112–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 27	at HOU	38%	106–110	W 113–112	✗missed	+5
Dec 25	at DAL	25%	108–118	W 105–99	✗missed	+16
Dec 23	at ATL	51%	114–113	L 104–117	✗missed	−14
Dec 21	vs GSW	59%	111–108	L 103–113	✗missed	−13
Dec 19	vs NYK	49%	107–108	L 107–133	✓correct	−25
Dec 15	at SAS	51%	112–111	W 106–92	✓correct	+13
Dec 13	vs LAL	73%	113–104	W 97–87	✓correct	+1
Dec 8	at GSW	36%	105–110	L 106–114	✓correct	−3
Dec 6	at GSW	31%	106–113	W 107–90	✗missed	+24
Dec 4	at LAC	36%	104–109	W 108–80	✗missed	+33
Dec 2	vs LAL	57%	110–108	W 109–80	✓correct	+27
Nov 29	vs LAC	54%	111–110	W 93–92	✓correct	±0
Nov 27	vs SAC	69%	113–106	L 104–115	✗missed	−18
Nov 26	vs HOU	69%	117–110	L 111–117	✗missed	−13
Nov 24	at BOS	31%	108–115	L 105–107	✓correct	+5
Nov 21	at TOR	61%	113–108	L 105–110	✗missed	−10
Nov 17	vs PHX	62%	112–108	W 120–117	✓correct	−1
Nov 15	at SAC	38%	108–112	W 130–126	✗missed	+8
Nov 13	at POR	61%	114–109	L 98–106	✗missed	−13
Nov 12	at POR	54%	111–109	L 108–122	✗missed	−16
Nov 10	vs MIA	69%	116–109	L 94–95	✗missed	−8
Nov 8	vs POR	75%	116–106	W 127–102	✓correct	+15
Nov 7	at CHI	51%	116–115	W 135–119	✓correct	+15
Nov 4	vs CHA	75%	116–106	W 114–93	✓correct	+11
Nov 2	at SAS	51%	110–109	L 103–113	✗missed	−11
Nov 1	vs DEN	57%	109–107	W 119–116	✓correct	+1
Oct 29	vs DAL	54%	106–105	L 114–120	✗missed	−7
Oct 26	vs TOR	82%	118–104	W 112–101	✓correct	−3
Oct 24	at SAC	38%	107–111	W 117–115	✗missed	+6
Oct 22	at LAL	46%	109–110	L 103–110	✓correct	−6

2023-24

Across 98 graded games, MIN finished an average of 2.4 points better than the forecast margin (90% interval +0.2 to +4.7).

10.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.4 to 12.3; 14th smallest of 30

+2.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 0.2 to 4.7

13.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

67%

winner picked

98 games involving MIN

65 / 55.7

actual / expected wins

gap +9.3

0.222

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 98 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 30 PO	vs DAL	57%	108–107	L 103–124	✗missed	−22
May 28 PO	at DAL	41%	105–107	W 105–100	✗missed	+7
May 26 PO	at DAL	47%	108–107	L 107–116	✗missed	−10
May 24 PO	vs DAL	63%	111–107	L 108–109	✗missed	−5
May 22 PO	vs DAL	65%	112–107	L 105–108	✗missed	−8
May 19 PO	at DEN	39%	105–108	W 98–90	✗missed	+11
May 16 PO	vs DEN	65%	110–105	W 115–70	✓correct	+40
May 14 PO	at DEN	35%	104–109	L 97–112	✓correct	−10
May 12 PO	vs DEN	59%	109–107	L 107–115	✗missed	−10
May 10 PO	vs DEN	63%	110–106	L 90–117	✗missed	−31
May 6 PO	at DEN	43%	108–109	W 106–80	✗missed	+27
May 4 PO	at DEN	34%	107–113	W 106–99	✗missed	+13
Apr 28 PO	at PHX	47%	109–108	W 122–116	✓correct	+5
Apr 26 PO	at PHX	41%	106–108	W 126–109	✗missed	+19
Apr 23 PO	vs PHX	67%	112–106	W 105–93	✓correct	+6
Apr 20 PO	vs PHX	73%	115–105	W 120–95	✓correct	+15
Apr 14	vs PHX	65%	114–109	L 106–125	✗missed	−24
Apr 12	vs ATL	65%	115–110	W 109–106	✓correct	−2
Apr 10	at DEN	43%	110–111	L 107–116	✓correct	−8
Apr 9	vs WAS	86%	121–101	W 130–121	✓correct	−11
Apr 7	at LAL	41%	111–113	W 127–117	✗missed	+12
Apr 5	at PHX	39%	105–108	L 87–97	✓correct	−7
Apr 3	vs TOR	78%	117–104	W 133–85	✓correct	+35
Apr 2	vs HOU	59%	113–111	W 113–106	✓correct	+5
Mar 31	vs CHI	57%	113–112	L 101–109	✗missed	−9
Mar 29	at DEN	41%	106–108	W 111–98	✗missed	+15
Mar 27	vs DET	82%	120–104	W 106–91	✓correct	−1
Mar 24	vs GSW	59%	113–111	W 114–110	✓correct	+2
Mar 22	vs CLE	59%	108–106	W 104–91	✓correct	+11
Mar 19	vs DEN	59%	112–110	L 112–115	✗missed	−5
Mar 18	at UTA	51%	119–116	W 114–104	✓correct	+7
Mar 16	at UTA	59%	122–115	W 119–100	✓correct	+12
Mar 12	at LAC	34%	107–113	W 118–100	✗missed	+24
Mar 10	at LAL	43%	116–117	L 109–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 8	at CLE	41%	105–107	L 104–113	✓correct	−7
Mar 7	at IND	47%	115–114	W 113–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 4	vs POR	78%	114–101	W 119–114	✓correct	−8
Mar 3	vs LAC	63%	116–112	L 88–89	✗missed	−5
Mar 1	vs SAC	63%	117–113	L 120–124	✗missed	−8
Feb 28	vs MEM	76%	117–105	W 110–101	✓correct	−3
Feb 27	vs SAS	79%	121–107	W 114–105	✓correct	−5
Feb 24	vs BKN	65%	116–111	W 101–86	✓correct	+10
Feb 23	vs MIL	73%	116–106	L 107–112	✗missed	−15
Feb 15	at POR	53%	113–109	W 128–91	✓correct	+33
Feb 13	at POR	55%	114–109	W 121–109	✓correct	+7
Feb 12	at LAC	37%	109–113	W 121–100	✗missed	+25
Feb 8	at MIL	41%	113–115	W 129–105	✗missed	+26
Feb 6	at CHI	53%	115–111	L 123–129	✗missed	−10
Feb 4	vs HOU	67%	116–110	W 111–90	✓correct	+15
Feb 2	vs ORL	59%	108–106	L 106–108	✗missed	−4
Jan 31	vs DAL	78%	121–108	W 121–87	✓correct	+21
Jan 29	at OKC	39%	110–113	W 107–101	✗missed	+9
Jan 27	at SAS	53%	119–115	L 112–113	✗missed	−5
Jan 25	at BKN	53%	114–110	W 96–94	✓correct	−2
Jan 24	at WAS	57%	118–112	W 118–107	✓correct	+5
Jan 22	vs CHA	82%	116–100	L 125–128	✗missed	−19
Jan 20	vs OKC	59%	114–112	L 97–102	✗missed	−7
Jan 18	vs MEM	78%	120–107	W 118–103	✓correct	+2
Jan 17	at DET	53%	119–115	W 124–117	✓correct	+3
Jan 14	vs LAC	61%	110–107	W 109–105	✓correct	+1
Jan 12	vs POR	79%	119–105	W 116–93	✓correct	+9
Jan 10	at BOS	39%	112–115	L 120–127	✓correct	−4
Jan 9	at ORL	49%	113–111	W 113–92	✓correct	+19
Jan 7	at DAL	41%	114–116	L 108–115	✓correct	−5
Jan 5	at HOU	49%	116–114	W 122–95	✓correct	+25
Jan 3	vs NOP	67%	115–109	L 106–117	✗missed	−17
Jan 1	at NYK	41%	116–118	L 106–112	✓correct	−4
Dec 30	vs LAL	70%	120–112	W 108–106	✓correct	−6
Dec 28	vs DAL	75%	121–110	W 118–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 26	at OKC	35%	113–118	L 106–129	✓correct	−18
Dec 23	at SAC	41%	116–118	W 110–98	✗missed	+14
Dec 21	vs LAL	75%	120–109	W 118–111	✓correct	−4
Dec 20	at PHI	35%	110–115	L 113–127	✓correct	−9
Dec 18	at MIA	47%	115–114	W 112–108	✓correct	+3
Dec 16	vs IND	70%	118–110	W 127–109	✓correct	+10
Dec 14	at DAL	47%	113–112	W 119–101	✓correct	+17
Dec 11	at NOP	39%	113–116	L 107–121	✓correct	−11
Dec 8	at MEM	53%	111–107	W 127–103	✓correct	+20
Dec 6	vs SAS	81%	122–107	W 102–94	✓correct	−7
Dec 2	at CHA	53%	115–111	W 123–117	✓correct	+2
Nov 30	vs UTA	73%	117–107	W 101–90	✓correct	+1
Nov 28	vs OKC	65%	114–109	W 106–103	✓correct	−2
Nov 26	at MEM	59%	113–106	W 119–97	✓correct	+15
Nov 24	vs SAC	68%	117–110	L 111–124	✗missed	−20
Nov 22	vs PHI	73%	120–110	W 112–99	✓correct	+3
Nov 20	vs NYK	63%	111–107	W 117–100	✓correct	+13
Nov 18	at NOP	55%	117–112	W 121–120	✓correct	−4
Nov 15	at PHX	47%	111–110	L 115–133	✗missed	−19
Nov 14	at GSW	47%	110–109	W 104–101	✓correct	+2
Nov 12	at GSW	47%	109–108	W 116–110	✓correct	+5
Nov 10	at SAS	55%	119–114	W 117–110	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	vs NOP	72%	117–108	W 122–101	✓correct	+12
Nov 6	vs BOS	63%	110–106	W 114–109	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	vs UTA	65%	117–112	W 123–95	✓correct	+23
Nov 1	vs DEN	61%	111–108	W 110–89	✓correct	+18
Oct 30	at ATL	41%	114–116	L 113–127	✓correct	−12
Oct 28	vs MIA	61%	108–105	W 106–90	✓correct	+13
Oct 25	at TOR	39%	110–113	L 94–97	✓correct	±0

2022-23

10.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.0 to 11.5; 16th smallest of 30

−1.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.3 to 1.0

12.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

49%

winner picked

87 games involving MIN

43 / 44.6

actual / expected wins

gap −1.6

0.262

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 87 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 25 PO	at DEN	40%	104–108	L 109–112	✓correct	+1
Apr 23 PO	vs DEN	37%	105–110	W 114–108	✗missed	+11
Apr 21 PO	vs DEN	32%	102–109	L 111–120	✓correct	−2
Apr 19 PO	at DEN	45%	108–110	L 113–122	✓correct	−7
Apr 16 PO	at DEN	47%	109–110	L 80–109	✓correct	−28
Apr 9	vs NOP	47%	114–115	W 113–108	✗missed	+6
Apr 8	at SAS	83%	124–109	W 151–131	✓correct	+5
Apr 4	at BKN	42%	112–115	W 107–102	✗missed	+8
Apr 2	vs POR	78%	126–114	L 105–107	✗missed	−14
Mar 31	vs LAL	47%	113–114	L 111–123	✓correct	−11
Mar 29	at PHX	40%	115–119	L 100–107	✓correct	−3
Mar 27	at SAC	40%	116–120	W 119–115	✗missed	+8
Mar 26	at GSW	40%	118–122	W 99–96	✗missed	+7
Mar 22	vs ATL	65%	120–114	W 125–124	✓correct	−5
Mar 20	at NYK	35%	111–117	W 140–134	✗missed	+12
Mar 18	at TOR	58%	113–110	L 107–122	✗missed	−18
Mar 17	at CHI	45%	112–114	L 131–139	✓correct	−6
Mar 15	vs BOS	35%	111–117	L 102–104	✓correct	+4
Mar 13	at ATL	42%	118–121	W 136–115	✗missed	+24
Mar 10	vs BKN	55%	117–115	L 123–124	✗missed	−3
Mar 7	vs PHI	42%	115–118	L 94–117	✓correct	−20
Mar 4	at SAC	47%	116–117	W 138–134	✗missed	+5
Mar 3	at LAL	47%	114–115	W 110–102	✗missed	+9
Feb 28	at LAC	37%	114–119	W 108–101	✗missed	+12
Feb 26	at GSW	47%	117–118	L 104–109	✓correct	−4
Feb 24	vs CHA	70%	120–112	L 113–121	✗missed	−16
Feb 16	vs WAS	55%	119–117	L 106–114	✗missed	−10
Feb 13	at DAL	53%	116–115	W 124–121	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	at MEM	47%	112–113	L 107–128	✓correct	−20
Feb 8	at UTA	42%	118–121	W 143–118	✗missed	+28
Feb 7	at DEN	35%	111–117	L 112–146	✓correct	−28
Feb 5	vs DEN	60%	120–116	W 128–98	✓correct	+26
Feb 3	vs ORL	63%	118–113	L 120–127	✗missed	−12
Feb 1	vs GSW	40%	114–118	W 119–114	✗missed	+9
Jan 30	vs SAC	60%	121–117	L 111–118	✗missed	−11
Jan 28	vs SAC	55%	119–117	W 117–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 27	vs MEM	40%	114–118	W 111–100	✗missed	+15
Jan 25	at NOP	45%	115–117	W 111–102	✗missed	+11
Jan 23	at HOU	65%	123–117	L 114–119	✗missed	−11
Jan 21	vs HOU	88%	124–105	W 113–104	✓correct	−10
Jan 19	vs TOR	45%	115–117	W 128–126	✗missed	+4
Jan 18	at DEN	53%	113–112	L 118–122	✗missed	−5
Jan 16	vs UTA	60%	118–114	L 125–126	✗missed	−5
Jan 14	vs CLE	37%	112–117	W 110–102	✗missed	+13
Jan 13	vs PHX	53%	112–111	W 121–116	✓correct	+4
Jan 11	at DET	68%	121–114	L 118–135	✗missed	−24
Jan 8	at HOU	70%	120–112	W 104–96	✓correct	±0
Jan 6	vs LAC	53%	117–116	W 128–115	✓correct	+12
Jan 4	vs POR	47%	117–118	W 113–106	✗missed	+8
Jan 2	vs DEN	42%	116–119	W 124–111	✗missed	+16
Dec 31	vs DET	68%	120–113	L 104–116	✗missed	−19
Dec 30	at MIL	45%	113–115	L 114–123	✓correct	−7
Dec 28	at NOP	32%	110–117	L 118–119	✓correct	+6
Dec 26	at MIA	60%	112–108	L 110–113	✗missed	−7
Dec 23	at BOS	40%	111–115	L 109–121	✓correct	−8
Dec 21	vs DAL	53%	114–113	L 99–104	✗missed	−6
Dec 19	vs DAL	45%	115–117	W 116–106	✗missed	+12
Dec 18	vs CHI	40%	111–115	W 150–126	✗missed	+28
Dec 16	at OKC	60%	116–112	W 112–110	✓correct	−2
Dec 14	at LAC	42%	111–114	L 88–99	✓correct	−8
Dec 12	at POR	58%	119–116	L 112–133	✗missed	−24
Dec 10	at POR	58%	118–115	L 118–124	✗missed	−9
Dec 9	at UTA	40%	112–116	W 118–108	✗missed	+14
Dec 7	vs IND	53%	113–112	W 121–115	✓correct	+5
Dec 3	vs OKC	60%	117–113	L 128–135	✗missed	−11
Nov 30	vs MEM	47%	113–114	W 109–101	✗missed	+9
Nov 28	at WAS	60%	115–111	L 127–142	✗missed	−19
Nov 27	vs GSW	47%	112–113	L 114–137	✓correct	−22
Nov 25	at CHA	70%	116–108	L 108–110	✗missed	−10
Nov 23	at IND	55%	116–114	W 115–101	✓correct	+12
Nov 21	vs MIA	58%	113–110	W 105–101	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	at PHI	47%	111–112	W 112–109	✗missed	+4
Nov 16	at ORL	60%	114–110	W 126–108	✓correct	+14
Nov 13	at CLE	53%	113–112	W 129–124	✓correct	+4
Nov 11	at MEM	45%	110–112	L 103–114	✓correct	−9
Nov 9	vs PHX	40%	107–111	L 117–129	✓correct	−8
Nov 7	vs NYK	55%	112–110	L 107–120	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	vs HOU	74%	115–105	W 129–117	✓correct	+2
Nov 4	vs MIL	42%	109–112	L 102–115	✓correct	−10
Nov 1	at PHX	35%	108–114	L 107–116	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	at SAS	58%	113–110	L 98–107	✗missed	−12
Oct 28	vs LAL	58%	112–109	W 111–102	✓correct	+6
Oct 26	vs SAS	53%	110–109	W 134–122	✓correct	+11
Oct 24	vs SAS	47%	111–112	L 106–115	✓correct	−8
Oct 23	at OKC	72%	118–109	W 116–106	✓correct	+1
Oct 21	vs UTA	42%	107–110	L 126–132	✓correct	−3
Oct 19	vs OKC	65%	115–109	W 115–108	✓correct	+1

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.5 to 11.9; 19th smallest of 30

+1.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 0.1 to 2.5

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

59%

winner picked

387 games involving MIN

229 / 212.1

actual / expected wins

gap +16.9

0.240

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 387 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs UTA	88%	123–106	W 115–100	✓correct	−2
Nov 6	at NOP	70%	122–115	W 115–109	✓correct	−1
Nov 4	at HOU	13%	101–118	W 117–107	✗missed	+27
Nov 2	vs MIL	80%	122–110	W 112–100	✓correct	±0
Oct 31	at SAS	31%	110–117	L 111–121	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	vs LAC	56%	115–113	W 127–101	✓correct	+24
Oct 28	vs GSW	69%	118–111	L 114–119	✗missed	−12
Oct 26	at CLE	44%	112–114	L 125–127	✓correct	±0
Oct 25	vs TOR	59%	117–114	W 117–94	✓correct	+20
Oct 23	at ORL	41%	112–115	W 115–93	✗missed	+25
Oct 21	at MIA	53%	120–119	W 131–106	✓correct	+24
May 15 PO	vs SAS	53%	108–107	L 109–139	✗missed	−31
May 12 PO	at SAS	11%	102–120	L 97–126	✓correct	−11
May 10 PO	vs SAS	47%	109–110	W 114–109	✗missed	+6
May 8 PO	vs SAS	47%	109–110	L 108–115	✓correct	−6
May 6 PO	at SAS	22%	106–117	L 95–133	✓correct	−27
May 4 PO	at SAS	20%	105–117	W 104–102	✗missed	+14
Apr 30 PO	vs DEN	32%	112–119	W 110–98	✗missed	+19
Apr 27 PO	at DEN	40%	114–118	L 113–125	✓correct	−8
Apr 25 PO	vs DEN	42%	116–119	W 112–96	✗missed	+19
Apr 23 PO	vs DEN	53%	112–111	W 113–96	✓correct	+16
Apr 20 PO	at DEN	31%	110–117	W 119–114	✗missed	+12
Apr 18 PO	at DEN	31%	109–116	L 105–116	✓correct	−4
Apr 12	vs NOP	85%	122–107	W 132–126	✓correct	−9
Apr 10	at HOU	22%	106–117	W 136–132	✗missed	+15
Apr 8	at ORL	31%	113–120	L 120–132	✓correct	−5
Apr 7	at IND	74%	124–115	W 124–104	✓correct	+11
Apr 5	vs CHA	39%	108–112	L 108–122	✓correct	−10
Apr 3	at PHI	41%	115–118	L 103–115	✓correct	−9
Apr 2	at DET	34%	112–118	L 108–113	✓correct	+1
Mar 30	at DAL	66%	120–114	W 124–94	✓correct	+24
Mar 28	vs DET	39%	111–115	L 87–109	✓correct	−18
Mar 25	vs HOU	56%	114–112	W 110–108	✓correct	±0
Mar 22	at BOS	29%	110–118	W 102–92	✗missed	+18
Mar 20	vs POR	53%	117–116	L 104–108	✗missed	−5
Mar 18	vs UTA	74%	118–109	W 147–111	✓correct	+27
Mar 17	vs PHX	47%	111–112	W 116–104	✗missed	+13
Mar 15	at OKC	24%	110–120	L 103–116	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	at GSW	47%	114–115	W 127–117	✗missed	+11
Mar 11	at LAC	44%	114–116	L 128–153	✓correct	−23
Mar 10	at LAL	39%	113–117	L 106–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 7	vs ORL	61%	115–111	L 92–119	✗missed	−31
Mar 5	vs TOR	64%	118–113	W 115–107	✓correct	+3
Mar 3	vs MEM	74%	123–114	W 117–110	✓correct	−2
Mar 1	at DEN	36%	115–120	W 117–108	✗missed	+14
Feb 26	at LAC	56%	115–113	W 94–88	✓correct	+4
Feb 24	at POR	64%	122–117	W 124–121	✓correct	−2
Feb 22	vs PHI	74%	124–115	L 108–135	✗missed	−36
Feb 20	vs DAL	90%	128–109	W 122–111	✓correct	−8
Feb 11	vs POR	69%	121–114	W 133–109	✓correct	+17
Feb 9	vs ATL	59%	118–115	W 138–116	✓correct	+19
Feb 8	vs LAC	67%	119–113	L 96–115	✗missed	−25
Feb 6	vs NOP	76%	122–112	L 115–119	✗missed	−14
Feb 4	at TOR	47%	115–116	W 128–126	✗missed	+3
Feb 2	at MEM	74%	120–111	L 128–137	✗missed	−18
Jan 31	at MEM	71%	119–111	W 131–114	✓correct	+9
Jan 29	vs OKC	53%	118–117	W 123–111	✓correct	+11
Jan 28	at DAL	53%	117–116	W 118–105	✓correct	+12
Jan 26	vs GSW	64%	120–115	W 108–83	✓correct	+20
Jan 25	vs GSW	67%	122–116	L 85–111	✗missed	−32
Jan 22	vs CHI	69%	123–116	L 115–120	✗missed	−12
Jan 20	at UTA	80%	127–115	L 122–127	✗missed	−17
Jan 17	at SAS	47%	115–116	L 123–126	✓correct	−2
Jan 16	at HOU	41%	111–114	L 105–110	✓correct	−2
Jan 13	at MIL	47%	115–116	W 139–106	✗missed	+34
Jan 11	vs SAS	53%	118–117	W 104–103	✓correct	±0
Jan 10	at CLE	53%	120–119	L 134–146	✗missed	−13
Jan 8	vs CLE	64%	120–115	W 131–122	✓correct	+4
Jan 6	vs MIA	67%	120–114	W 122–94	✓correct	+22
Jan 4	at WAS	74%	122–113	W 141–115	✓correct	+17
Jan 3	at MIA	47%	116–117	W 125–115	✗missed	+11
Dec 31	at ATL	71%	124–116	L 102–126	✗missed	−32
Dec 29	at CHI	61%	119–115	W 136–101	✓correct	+31
Dec 27	vs BKN	71%	119–111	L 107–123	✗missed	−24
Dec 25	at DEN	44%	118–120	L 138–142	✓correct	−2
Dec 23	vs NYK	67%	117–111	W 115–104	✓correct	+5
Dec 21	vs MIL	74%	119–110	W 103–100	✓correct	−6
Dec 19	vs OKC	59%	116–113	W 112–107	✓correct	+2
Dec 17	vs MEM	71%	119–111	L 110–116	✗missed	−14
Dec 14	vs SAC	82%	122–109	W 117–103	✓correct	+1
Dec 12	at GSW	44%	111–113	W 127–120	✗missed	+9
Dec 8	vs PHX	71%	120–112	L 105–108	✗missed	−11
Dec 6	vs LAC	76%	122–112	W 109–106	✓correct	−7
Dec 4	at NOP	81%	124–111	W 125–116	✓correct	−4
Dec 2	at NOP	85%	124–109	W 149–142	✓correct	−8
Nov 30	vs SAS	69%	120–113	W 125–112	✓correct	+6
Nov 29	vs BOS	59%	116–113	W 119–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 26	at OKC	15%	109–124	L 105–113	✓correct	+7
Nov 24	at SAC	78%	125–114	L 112–117	✗missed	−16
Nov 21	at PHX	53%	118–117	L 113–114	✗missed	−2
Nov 19	vs WAS	91%	126–106	W 120–109	✓correct	−9
Nov 17	vs DAL	78%	122–111	W 120–96	✓correct	+13
Nov 15	vs DEN	53%	119–118	L 112–123	✗missed	−12
Nov 14	vs SAC	83%	127–113	W 124–110	✓correct	±0
Nov 10	at UTA	74%	124–115	W 120–113	✓correct	−2
Nov 9	at SAC	53%	119–118	W 144–117	✓correct	+26
Nov 7	vs UTA	78%	123–112	W 137–97	✓correct	+29
Nov 5	at NYK	47%	118–119	L 114–137	✓correct	−22
Nov 3	at BKN	64%	120–115	W 125–109	✓correct	+11
Nov 1	at CHA	69%	122–115	W 122–105	✓correct	+10
Oct 29	vs LAL	69%	114–107	L 115–116	✗missed	−8
Oct 27	vs DEN	61%	118–114	L 114–127	✗missed	−17
Oct 26	vs IND	67%	116–110	W 114–110	✓correct	−2
Oct 24	at LAL	58%	113–110	L 110–128	✗missed	−21
Oct 22	at POR	47%	113–114	W 118–114	✗missed	+5
May 28 PO	at OKC	36%	104–109	L 94–124	✓correct	−25
May 26 PO	vs OKC	44%	105–108	L 126–128	✓correct	+1
May 24 PO	vs OKC	39%	102–107	W 143–101	✗missed	+47
May 22 PO	at OKC	27%	102–111	L 103–118	✓correct	−6
May 20 PO	at OKC	33%	102–108	L 88–114	✓correct	−20
May 14 PO	vs GSW	69%	108–101	W 121–110	✓correct	+4
May 12 PO	at GSW	43%	98–100	W 117–110	✗missed	+9
May 10 PO	at GSW	38%	97–101	W 102–97	✗missed	+9
May 8 PO	vs GSW	77%	105–94	W 117–93	✓correct	+13
May 6 PO	vs GSW	69%	106–99	L 88–99	✗missed	−18
Apr 30 PO	at LAL	41%	103–106	W 103–96	✗missed	+10
Apr 27 PO	vs LAL	69%	109–102	W 116–113	✓correct	−4
Apr 25 PO	vs LAL	62%	106–102	W 116–104	✓correct	+8
Apr 22 PO	at LAL	56%	110–107	L 85–94	✗missed	−12
Apr 19 PO	at LAL	46%	106–107	W 117–95	✗missed	+23
Apr 13	vs UTA	84%	119–104	W 116–105	✓correct	−4
Apr 11	vs BKN	88%	121–103	W 117–91	✓correct	+8
Apr 10	at MEM	51%	112–111	W 141–125	✓correct	+15
Apr 8	at MIL	61%	114–109	L 103–110	✗missed	−12
Apr 5	at PHI	75%	119–108	W 114–109	✓correct	−6
Apr 3	at BKN	83%	120–104	W 105–90	✓correct	−1
Apr 1	at DEN	43%	116–118	W 140–139	✗missed	+3
Mar 30	vs DET	69%	118–111	W 123–104	✓correct	+12
Mar 28	vs PHX	62%	115–111	W 124–109	✓correct	+11
Mar 24	at IND	46%	113–114	L 103–119	✓correct	−15
Mar 21	vs NOP	75%	117–107	W 134–93	✓correct	+31
Mar 19	vs NOP	75%	117–107	L 115–119	✗missed	−14
Mar 17	vs IND	62%	114–110	L 130–132	✗missed	−6
Mar 16	vs UTA	85%	125–109	W 128–102	✓correct	+10
Mar 14	vs ORL	75%	115–105	W 118–111	✓correct	−3
Mar 12	at DEN	46%	117–118	W 115–95	✗missed	+21
Mar 9	vs SAS	77%	123–112	W 141–124	✓correct	+6
Mar 7	at MIA	54%	112–110	W 106–104	✓correct	±0
Mar 5	at CHA	59%	117–113	W 125–110	✓correct	+11
Mar 4	vs PHI	77%	120–109	W 126–112	✓correct	+3
Mar 2	at PHX	54%	121–119	W 116–98	✓correct	+16
Feb 28	at UTA	56%	118–115	L 116–117	✗missed	−4
Feb 27	at LAL	38%	114–118	L 102–111	✓correct	−5
Feb 24	at OKC	21%	112–124	W 131–128	✗missed	+15
Feb 23	vs OKC	46%	114–116	L 123–130	✓correct	−5
Feb 21	at HOU	36%	106–111	L 115–121	✓correct	−1
Feb 13	vs OKC	32%	111–119	W 116–101	✗missed	+23
Feb 12	vs MIL	64%	119–114	L 101–103	✗missed	−7
Feb 10	at CLE	23%	109–120	L 107–128	✓correct	−10
Feb 8	vs POR	57%	110–108	W 114–98	✓correct	+14
Feb 6	vs HOU	49%	111–112	W 127–114	✗missed	+14
Feb 5	vs CHI	73%	121–112	W 127–108	✓correct	+10
Feb 3	vs SAC	67%	120–114	L 114–116	✗missed	−8
Feb 1	vs WAS	71%	118–110	L 103–105	✗missed	−10
Jan 30	at UTA	56%	114–111	W 138–113	✓correct	+22
Jan 29	at PHX	36%	110–115	W 121–113	✗missed	+13
Jan 27	vs ATL	69%	119–112	W 100–92	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	vs DEN	41%	110–114	W 133–104	✗missed	+33
Jan 22	at DAL	41%	107–110	W 115–114	✗missed	+4
Jan 20	at MEM	33%	113–119	L 106–108	✓correct	+4
Jan 18	vs CLE	34%	108–115	L 117–124	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	at NYK	29%	107–115	W 116–99	✗missed	+25
Jan 15	vs GSW	69%	111–104	L 115–116	✗missed	−8
Jan 13	at WAS	56%	115–112	W 120–106	✓correct	+11
Jan 11	vs MEM	57%	116–114	L 125–127	✗missed	−4
Jan 9	at ORL	41%	104–107	W 104–89	✗missed	+18
Jan 7	at NOP	56%	114–111	W 104–97	✓correct	+4
Jan 6	vs LAC	49%	112–113	W 108–106	✗missed	+3
Jan 4	at DET	54%	113–111	L 105–119	✗missed	−16
Jan 2	vs BOS	41%	106–110	L 115–118	✓correct	+1
Dec 31	at OKC	18%	106–120	L 105–113	✓correct	+6
Dec 29	vs SAS	64%	114–109	W 112–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 27	at HOU	38%	106–110	W 113–112	✗missed	+5
Dec 25	at DAL	25%	108–118	W 105–99	✗missed	+16
Dec 23	at ATL	51%	114–113	L 104–117	✗missed	−14
Dec 21	vs GSW	59%	111–108	L 103–113	✗missed	−13
Dec 19	vs NYK	49%	107–108	L 107–133	✓correct	−25
Dec 15	at SAS	51%	112–111	W 106–92	✓correct	+13
Dec 13	vs LAL	73%	113–104	W 97–87	✓correct	+1
Dec 8	at GSW	36%	105–110	L 106–114	✓correct	−3
Dec 6	at GSW	31%	106–113	W 107–90	✗missed	+24
Dec 4	at LAC	36%	104–109	W 108–80	✗missed	+33
Dec 2	vs LAL	57%	110–108	W 109–80	✓correct	+27
Nov 29	vs LAC	54%	111–110	W 93–92	✓correct	±0
Nov 27	vs SAC	69%	113–106	L 104–115	✗missed	−18
Nov 26	vs HOU	69%	117–110	L 111–117	✗missed	−13
Nov 24	at BOS	31%	108–115	L 105–107	✓correct	+5
Nov 21	at TOR	61%	113–108	L 105–110	✗missed	−10
Nov 17	vs PHX	62%	112–108	W 120–117	✓correct	−1
Nov 15	at SAC	38%	108–112	W 130–126	✗missed	+8
Nov 13	at POR	61%	114–109	L 98–106	✗missed	−13
Nov 12	at POR	54%	111–109	L 108–122	✗missed	−16
Nov 10	vs MIA	69%	116–109	L 94–95	✗missed	−8
Nov 8	vs POR	75%	116–106	W 127–102	✓correct	+15
Nov 7	at CHI	51%	116–115	W 135–119	✓correct	+15
Nov 4	vs CHA	75%	116–106	W 114–93	✓correct	+11
Nov 2	at SAS	51%	110–109	L 103–113	✗missed	−11
Nov 1	vs DEN	57%	109–107	W 119–116	✓correct	+1
Oct 29	vs DAL	54%	106–105	L 114–120	✗missed	−7
Oct 26	vs TOR	82%	118–104	W 112–101	✓correct	−3
Oct 24	at SAC	38%	107–111	W 117–115	✗missed	+6
Oct 22	at LAL	46%	109–110	L 103–110	✓correct	−6
May 30 PO	vs DAL	57%	108–107	L 103–124	✗missed	−22
May 28 PO	at DAL	41%	105–107	W 105–100	✗missed	+7
May 26 PO	at DAL	47%	108–107	L 107–116	✗missed	−10
May 24 PO	vs DAL	63%	111–107	L 108–109	✗missed	−5
May 22 PO	vs DAL	65%	112–107	L 105–108	✗missed	−8
May 19 PO	at DEN	39%	105–108	W 98–90	✗missed	+11
May 16 PO	vs DEN	65%	110–105	W 115–70	✓correct	+40
May 14 PO	at DEN	35%	104–109	L 97–112	✓correct	−10
May 12 PO	vs DEN	59%	109–107	L 107–115	✗missed	−10
May 10 PO	vs DEN	63%	110–106	L 90–117	✗missed	−31
May 6 PO	at DEN	43%	108–109	W 106–80	✗missed	+27
May 4 PO	at DEN	34%	107–113	W 106–99	✗missed	+13
Apr 28 PO	at PHX	47%	109–108	W 122–116	✓correct	+5
Apr 26 PO	at PHX	41%	106–108	W 126–109	✗missed	+19
Apr 23 PO	vs PHX	67%	112–106	W 105–93	✓correct	+6
Apr 20 PO	vs PHX	73%	115–105	W 120–95	✓correct	+15
Apr 14	vs PHX	65%	114–109	L 106–125	✗missed	−24
Apr 12	vs ATL	65%	115–110	W 109–106	✓correct	−2
Apr 10	at DEN	43%	110–111	L 107–116	✓correct	−8
Apr 9	vs WAS	86%	121–101	W 130–121	✓correct	−11
Apr 7	at LAL	41%	111–113	W 127–117	✗missed	+12
Apr 5	at PHX	39%	105–108	L 87–97	✓correct	−7
Apr 3	vs TOR	78%	117–104	W 133–85	✓correct	+35
Apr 2	vs HOU	59%	113–111	W 113–106	✓correct	+5
Mar 31	vs CHI	57%	113–112	L 101–109	✗missed	−9
Mar 29	at DEN	41%	106–108	W 111–98	✗missed	+15
Mar 27	vs DET	82%	120–104	W 106–91	✓correct	−1
Mar 24	vs GSW	59%	113–111	W 114–110	✓correct	+2
Mar 22	vs CLE	59%	108–106	W 104–91	✓correct	+11
Mar 19	vs DEN	59%	112–110	L 112–115	✗missed	−5
Mar 18	at UTA	51%	119–116	W 114–104	✓correct	+7
Mar 16	at UTA	59%	122–115	W 119–100	✓correct	+12
Mar 12	at LAC	34%	107–113	W 118–100	✗missed	+24
Mar 10	at LAL	43%	116–117	L 109–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 8	at CLE	41%	105–107	L 104–113	✓correct	−7
Mar 7	at IND	47%	115–114	W 113–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 4	vs POR	78%	114–101	W 119–114	✓correct	−8
Mar 3	vs LAC	63%	116–112	L 88–89	✗missed	−5
Mar 1	vs SAC	63%	117–113	L 120–124	✗missed	−8
Feb 28	vs MEM	76%	117–105	W 110–101	✓correct	−3
Feb 27	vs SAS	79%	121–107	W 114–105	✓correct	−5
Feb 24	vs BKN	65%	116–111	W 101–86	✓correct	+10
Feb 23	vs MIL	73%	116–106	L 107–112	✗missed	−15
Feb 15	at POR	53%	113–109	W 128–91	✓correct	+33
Feb 13	at POR	55%	114–109	W 121–109	✓correct	+7
Feb 12	at LAC	37%	109–113	W 121–100	✗missed	+25
Feb 8	at MIL	41%	113–115	W 129–105	✗missed	+26
Feb 6	at CHI	53%	115–111	L 123–129	✗missed	−10
Feb 4	vs HOU	67%	116–110	W 111–90	✓correct	+15
Feb 2	vs ORL	59%	108–106	L 106–108	✗missed	−4
Jan 31	vs DAL	78%	121–108	W 121–87	✓correct	+21
Jan 29	at OKC	39%	110–113	W 107–101	✗missed	+9
Jan 27	at SAS	53%	119–115	L 112–113	✗missed	−5
Jan 25	at BKN	53%	114–110	W 96–94	✓correct	−2
Jan 24	at WAS	57%	118–112	W 118–107	✓correct	+5
Jan 22	vs CHA	82%	116–100	L 125–128	✗missed	−19
Jan 20	vs OKC	59%	114–112	L 97–102	✗missed	−7
Jan 18	vs MEM	78%	120–107	W 118–103	✓correct	+2
Jan 17	at DET	53%	119–115	W 124–117	✓correct	+3
Jan 14	vs LAC	61%	110–107	W 109–105	✓correct	+1
Jan 12	vs POR	79%	119–105	W 116–93	✓correct	+9
Jan 10	at BOS	39%	112–115	L 120–127	✓correct	−4
Jan 9	at ORL	49%	113–111	W 113–92	✓correct	+19
Jan 7	at DAL	41%	114–116	L 108–115	✓correct	−5
Jan 5	at HOU	49%	116–114	W 122–95	✓correct	+25
Jan 3	vs NOP	67%	115–109	L 106–117	✗missed	−17
Jan 1	at NYK	41%	116–118	L 106–112	✓correct	−4
Dec 30	vs LAL	70%	120–112	W 108–106	✓correct	−6
Dec 28	vs DAL	75%	121–110	W 118–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 26	at OKC	35%	113–118	L 106–129	✓correct	−18
Dec 23	at SAC	41%	116–118	W 110–98	✗missed	+14
Dec 21	vs LAL	75%	120–109	W 118–111	✓correct	−4
Dec 20	at PHI	35%	110–115	L 113–127	✓correct	−9
Dec 18	at MIA	47%	115–114	W 112–108	✓correct	+3
Dec 16	vs IND	70%	118–110	W 127–109	✓correct	+10
Dec 14	at DAL	47%	113–112	W 119–101	✓correct	+17
Dec 11	at NOP	39%	113–116	L 107–121	✓correct	−11
Dec 8	at MEM	53%	111–107	W 127–103	✓correct	+20
Dec 6	vs SAS	81%	122–107	W 102–94	✓correct	−7
Dec 2	at CHA	53%	115–111	W 123–117	✓correct	+2
Nov 30	vs UTA	73%	117–107	W 101–90	✓correct	+1
Nov 28	vs OKC	65%	114–109	W 106–103	✓correct	−2
Nov 26	at MEM	59%	113–106	W 119–97	✓correct	+15
Nov 24	vs SAC	68%	117–110	L 111–124	✗missed	−20
Nov 22	vs PHI	73%	120–110	W 112–99	✓correct	+3
Nov 20	vs NYK	63%	111–107	W 117–100	✓correct	+13
Nov 18	at NOP	55%	117–112	W 121–120	✓correct	−4
Nov 15	at PHX	47%	111–110	L 115–133	✗missed	−19
Nov 14	at GSW	47%	110–109	W 104–101	✓correct	+2
Nov 12	at GSW	47%	109–108	W 116–110	✓correct	+5
Nov 10	at SAS	55%	119–114	W 117–110	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	vs NOP	72%	117–108	W 122–101	✓correct	+12
Nov 6	vs BOS	63%	110–106	W 114–109	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	vs UTA	65%	117–112	W 123–95	✓correct	+23
Nov 1	vs DEN	61%	111–108	W 110–89	✓correct	+18
Oct 30	at ATL	41%	114–116	L 113–127	✓correct	−12
Oct 28	vs MIA	61%	108–105	W 106–90	✓correct	+13
Oct 25	at TOR	39%	110–113	L 94–97	✓correct	±0
Apr 25 PO	at DEN	40%	104–108	L 109–112	✓correct	+1
Apr 23 PO	vs DEN	37%	105–110	W 114–108	✗missed	+11
Apr 21 PO	vs DEN	32%	102–109	L 111–120	✓correct	−2
Apr 19 PO	at DEN	45%	108–110	L 113–122	✓correct	−7
Apr 16 PO	at DEN	47%	109–110	L 80–109	✓correct	−28
Apr 9	vs NOP	47%	114–115	W 113–108	✗missed	+6
Apr 8	at SAS	83%	124–109	W 151–131	✓correct	+5
Apr 4	at BKN	42%	112–115	W 107–102	✗missed	+8
Apr 2	vs POR	78%	126–114	L 105–107	✗missed	−14
Mar 31	vs LAL	47%	113–114	L 111–123	✓correct	−11
Mar 29	at PHX	40%	115–119	L 100–107	✓correct	−3
Mar 27	at SAC	40%	116–120	W 119–115	✗missed	+8
Mar 26	at GSW	40%	118–122	W 99–96	✗missed	+7
Mar 22	vs ATL	65%	120–114	W 125–124	✓correct	−5
Mar 20	at NYK	35%	111–117	W 140–134	✗missed	+12
Mar 18	at TOR	58%	113–110	L 107–122	✗missed	−18
Mar 17	at CHI	45%	112–114	L 131–139	✓correct	−6
Mar 15	vs BOS	35%	111–117	L 102–104	✓correct	+4
Mar 13	at ATL	42%	118–121	W 136–115	✗missed	+24
Mar 10	vs BKN	55%	117–115	L 123–124	✗missed	−3
Mar 7	vs PHI	42%	115–118	L 94–117	✓correct	−20
Mar 4	at SAC	47%	116–117	W 138–134	✗missed	+5
Mar 3	at LAL	47%	114–115	W 110–102	✗missed	+9
Feb 28	at LAC	37%	114–119	W 108–101	✗missed	+12
Feb 26	at GSW	47%	117–118	L 104–109	✓correct	−4
Feb 24	vs CHA	70%	120–112	L 113–121	✗missed	−16
Feb 16	vs WAS	55%	119–117	L 106–114	✗missed	−10
Feb 13	at DAL	53%	116–115	W 124–121	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	at MEM	47%	112–113	L 107–128	✓correct	−20
Feb 8	at UTA	42%	118–121	W 143–118	✗missed	+28
Feb 7	at DEN	35%	111–117	L 112–146	✓correct	−28
Feb 5	vs DEN	60%	120–116	W 128–98	✓correct	+26
Feb 3	vs ORL	63%	118–113	L 120–127	✗missed	−12
Feb 1	vs GSW	40%	114–118	W 119–114	✗missed	+9
Jan 30	vs SAC	60%	121–117	L 111–118	✗missed	−11
Jan 28	vs SAC	55%	119–117	W 117–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 27	vs MEM	40%	114–118	W 111–100	✗missed	+15
Jan 25	at NOP	45%	115–117	W 111–102	✗missed	+11
Jan 23	at HOU	65%	123–117	L 114–119	✗missed	−11
Jan 21	vs HOU	88%	124–105	W 113–104	✓correct	−10
Jan 19	vs TOR	45%	115–117	W 128–126	✗missed	+4
Jan 18	at DEN	53%	113–112	L 118–122	✗missed	−5
Jan 16	vs UTA	60%	118–114	L 125–126	✗missed	−5
Jan 14	vs CLE	37%	112–117	W 110–102	✗missed	+13
Jan 13	vs PHX	53%	112–111	W 121–116	✓correct	+4
Jan 11	at DET	68%	121–114	L 118–135	✗missed	−24
Jan 8	at HOU	70%	120–112	W 104–96	✓correct	±0
Jan 6	vs LAC	53%	117–116	W 128–115	✓correct	+12
Jan 4	vs POR	47%	117–118	W 113–106	✗missed	+8
Jan 2	vs DEN	42%	116–119	W 124–111	✗missed	+16
Dec 31	vs DET	68%	120–113	L 104–116	✗missed	−19
Dec 30	at MIL	45%	113–115	L 114–123	✓correct	−7
Dec 28	at NOP	32%	110–117	L 118–119	✓correct	+6
Dec 26	at MIA	60%	112–108	L 110–113	✗missed	−7
Dec 23	at BOS	40%	111–115	L 109–121	✓correct	−8
Dec 21	vs DAL	53%	114–113	L 99–104	✗missed	−6
Dec 19	vs DAL	45%	115–117	W 116–106	✗missed	+12
Dec 18	vs CHI	40%	111–115	W 150–126	✗missed	+28
Dec 16	at OKC	60%	116–112	W 112–110	✓correct	−2
Dec 14	at LAC	42%	111–114	L 88–99	✓correct	−8
Dec 12	at POR	58%	119–116	L 112–133	✗missed	−24
Dec 10	at POR	58%	118–115	L 118–124	✗missed	−9
Dec 9	at UTA	40%	112–116	W 118–108	✗missed	+14
Dec 7	vs IND	53%	113–112	W 121–115	✓correct	+5
Dec 3	vs OKC	60%	117–113	L 128–135	✗missed	−11
Nov 30	vs MEM	47%	113–114	W 109–101	✗missed	+9
Nov 28	at WAS	60%	115–111	L 127–142	✗missed	−19
Nov 27	vs GSW	47%	112–113	L 114–137	✓correct	−22
Nov 25	at CHA	70%	116–108	L 108–110	✗missed	−10
Nov 23	at IND	55%	116–114	W 115–101	✓correct	+12
Nov 21	vs MIA	58%	113–110	W 105–101	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	at PHI	47%	111–112	W 112–109	✗missed	+4
Nov 16	at ORL	60%	114–110	W 126–108	✓correct	+14
Nov 13	at CLE	53%	113–112	W 129–124	✓correct	+4
Nov 11	at MEM	45%	110–112	L 103–114	✓correct	−9
Nov 9	vs PHX	40%	107–111	L 117–129	✓correct	−8
Nov 7	vs NYK	55%	112–110	L 107–120	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	vs HOU	74%	115–105	W 129–117	✓correct	+2
Nov 4	vs MIL	42%	109–112	L 102–115	✓correct	−10
Nov 1	at PHX	35%	108–114	L 107–116	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	at SAS	58%	113–110	L 98–107	✗missed	−12
Oct 28	vs LAL	58%	112–109	W 111–102	✓correct	+6
Oct 26	vs SAS	53%	110–109	W 134–122	✓correct	+11
Oct 24	vs SAS	47%	111–112	L 106–115	✓correct	−8
Oct 23	at OKC	72%	118–109	W 116–106	✓correct	+1
Oct 21	vs UTA	42%	107–110	L 126–132	✓correct	−3
Oct 19	vs OKC	65%	115–109	W 115–108	✓correct	+1

Surprise games

All MIN surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected MIN wins

13%MIN beat HOU117–107Nov 4, 2026-27 · forecast HOU118–101 · missed margin by 27
20%MIN beat SAS104–102May 4, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast SAS117–105 · missed margin by 14
21%MIN beat OKC131–128Feb 24, 2024-25 · forecast OKC124–112 · missed margin by 15
22%MIN beat HOU136–132Apr 10, 2025-26 · forecast HOU117–106 · missed margin by 15
25%MIN beat DAL105–99Dec 25, 2024-25 · forecast DAL118–108 · missed margin by 16

Most unexpected MIN losses

18%CHA beat MIN128–125Jan 22, 2023-24 · forecast MIN116–100 · missed margin by 19
20%UTA beat MIN127–122Jan 20, 2025-26 · forecast MIN127–115 · missed margin by 17
22%POR beat MIN107–105Apr 2, 2022-23 · forecast MIN126–114 · missed margin by 14
22%SAC beat MIN117–112Nov 24, 2025-26 · forecast MIN125–114 · missed margin by 16
24%NOP beat MIN119–115Feb 6, 2025-26 · forecast MIN122–112 · missed margin by 14

Largest margin misses

39%MIN beat OKC143–101May 24, 2024-25 · playoffs · forecast OKC107–102 · missed margin by 47
65%MIN beat DEN115–70May 16, 2023-24 · playoffs · forecast MIN110–105 · missed margin by 40
26%PHI beat MIN135–108Feb 22, 2025-26 · forecast MIN124–115 · missed margin by 36
78%MIN beat TOR133–85Apr 3, 2023-24 · forecast MIN117–104 · missed margin by 35
47%MIN beat MIL139–106Jan 13, 2025-26 · forecast MIL116–115 · missed margin by 34

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected MIN wins

Most unexpected MIN losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions