2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, January 25, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
TOR 2–2@OKC 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR Toronto Raptors | 109 | 103 | −6 |
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) | 120 | 101 | −19 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | TOR | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1528 | 1726 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +268 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +2.1 | +13.6 |
| Games played this season | 47 | 45 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 114.9 | 116.9 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 113.3 | 109.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.6 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 36.9 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingTOR1528OKC1726
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
TOR1528
- Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1420
- First 37 games: +74.5
- Last 10 games: +33.0
- W@CHA97–96+4.6
- L@BOS117–125−3.7
- WPHI116–115+3.0
- LPHI102–115−16.0
- W@IND115–101+11.6
- LLAC117–121−6.7
- L@LAL93–110−11.5
- W@GSW145–127+26.3
- W@SAC122–109+10.1
- W@POR110–98+15.3
OKC1726
- Ended last season at 1760 → started this one at 1695
- First 35 games: +61.0
- Last 10 games: −30.1
- LCHA97–124−56.2
- WUTA129–125+1.0
- W@MEM117–116+2.1
- WMIA124–112+3.2
- WSAS119–98+7.7
- W@HOU111–91+13.8
- L@MIA120–122−8.0
- W@CLE136–104+16.4
- W@MIL122–102+6.0
- LIND114–117−16.1
Season scoring marginTOR+2.1OKC+13.6
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
TOR+2.1
Scores 114.3, allows 112.2 over 47 games: +2.1 a game.
OKC+13.6
Scores 121.5, allows 108.0 over 45 games: +13.6 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10TOR114.9OKC116.9
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
TOR114.9scored, +0.1 vs league
| Factor | TOR | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.7% | 54.5% | −2.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.1% | 12.2% | +3.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.195 | 0.213 | −0.5 | |
| Everything else | +0.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
OKC116.9scored, +2.1 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.8% | 54.5% | +1.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.2% | 12.2% | +4.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.231 | 0.213 | +0.5 | |
| Everything else | −4.7 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10TOR113.3OKC109.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
TOR113.3allowed, −1.5 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.4% | 54.5% | +0.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.3% | 12.2% | +1.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.220 | 0.213 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
OKC109.5allowed, −5.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.0% | 54.5% | +3.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.5% | 12.2% | +1.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.177 | 0.213 | +1.0 | |
| Everything else | −1.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 98.6
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
TOR 96.6 and OKC 100.6 → average 98.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.4)
Rotation points missingTOR0.0OKC36.9
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
TOR0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
OKC36.9pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Williams | 15.9 | 30.0 | 7 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 14.7 | 28.2 | 9 |
| Alex Caruso | 6.3 | 17.5 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-25 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
RestTOR2 daysOKC2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
TOR2days
Last played Jan 23 against POR.
OKC2days
Last played Jan 23 against IND.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
TOR
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 | @POR | 110–98 | 45-85 | 9-29 | 11-17 | 16 | – | 112.2 | 101.0 | 97.5 |
| Jan 21 | @SAC | 122–109 | 43-94 | 13-33 | 23-25 | 10 | – | 122.0 | 107.9 | 100.5 |
| Jan 20 | @GSW | 145–127 | 51-86 | 21-34 | 22-22 | 15 | – | 139.4 | 121.0 | 104.5 |
| Jan 18 | @LAL | 93–110 | 38-91 | 7-32 | 10-15 | 9 | – | 95.9 | 114.6 | 96.5 |
| Jan 16 | LAC | 117–121 | 42-87 | 11-33 | 22-26 | 18 | – | 113.6 | 115.2 | 94.2 |
| Jan 14 | @IND | 115–101 | 44-89 | 10-28 | 17-26 | 11 | – | 118.6 | 104.1 | 97.0 |
| Jan 12 | PHI | 102–115 | 37-92 | 6-37 | 22-25 | 9 | – | 108.5 | 122.3 | 94.0 |
| Jan 11 | PHI | 116–115 | 41-103 | 5-32 | 29-39 | 15 | – | 106.4 | 105.5 | 98.7 |
| Jan 9 | @BOS | 117–125 | 45-92 | 18-47 | 9-10 | 6 | – | 125.8 | 135.9 | 92.5 |
| Jan 7 | @CHA | 97–96 | 38-92 | 7-34 | 14-19 | 5 | – | 106.6 | 105.5 | 91.0 |
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 | IND | 114–117 | 40-82 | 7-26 | 27-30 | 9 | – | 112.9 | 117.0 | 100.5 |
| Jan 21 | @MIL | 122–102 | 49-90 | 14-36 | 10-15 | 8 | – | 125.8 | 105.2 | 97.0 |
| Jan 19 | @CLE | 136–104 | 50-90 | 23-47 | 13-20 | 11 | – | 127.1 | 97.2 | 107.0 |
| Jan 17 | @MIA | 120–122 | 42-77 | 13-29 | 23-28 | 14 | – | 118.8 | 120.8 | 101.0 |
| Jan 15 | @HOU | 111–91 | 41-89 | 16-41 | 13-15 | 11 | – | 113.3 | 91.0 | 99.0 |
| Jan 13 | SAS | 119–98 | 42-81 | 11-30 | 24-27 | 11 | – | 125.3 | 103.2 | 95.0 |
| Jan 11 | MIA | 124–112 | 47-93 | 10-34 | 20-28 | 13 | – | 117.0 | 107.7 | 105.0 |
| Jan 9 | @MEM | 117–116 | 43-91 | 9-37 | 22-28 | 6 | – | 119.4 | 118.4 | 98.0 |
| Jan 7 | UTA | 129–125 | 44-101 | 7-38 | 34-42 | 11 | – | 109.3 | 106.8 | 106.4 |
| Jan 5 | CHA | 97–124 | 34-93 | 11-39 | 18-27 | 7 | – | 100.0 | 127.8 | 97.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | TOR | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 103 | 101 |
| Field goals | 37–86 · 43.0% | 33–75 · 44.0% |
| Three-pointers | 12–34 · 35.3% | 11–43 · 25.6% |
| Free throws | 17–26 · 65.4% | 24–31 · 77.4% |
| Rebounds | 51 | 37 |
| Assists | 28 | 21 |
| Turnovers | 11 | 11 |
| Steals | 10 | 5 |
| Blocks | 6 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Oklahoma City Thunder
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (OKC) | +11 | −2 | −13 |
| Total points | 229 | 204 | −25 |
| TOR points | 109 | 103 | −6 |
| OKC points | 120 | 101 | −19 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7 2024-25 | TOR at OKC | TOR 109 – 121 OKC |
| Dec 5 2024-25 | OKC at TOR | OKC 129 – 92 TOR |
| Mar 22 2023-24 | OKC at TOR | OKC 123 – 103 TOR |
| Feb 4 2023-24 | TOR at OKC | TOR 127 – 135 OKC |
| Mar 16 2022-23 | OKC at TOR | OKC 111 – 128 TOR |