2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, March 10, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
DEN 0–1@OKC 0–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN Denver Nuggets | 113 | 140 | +27 |
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) | 126 | 127 | +1 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 13.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | DEN | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1624 | 1779 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +225 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +4.7 | +12.6 |
| Games played this season | 64 | 65 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 117.3 | 124.2 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 118.2 | 111.0 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.0 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 25.9 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingDEN1624OKC1779
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
DEN1624
- Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1612
- First 54 games: +25.8
- Last 10 games: −14.0
- WPOR132–121+3.5
- WCHA129–115+1.7
- LLAL100–123−28.7
- W@IND125–116+11.4
- L@MIL112–121−11.4
- W@DET134–119+15.2
- L@BOS103–110−5.3
- WSAC116–110+4.1
- WPHX149–141+2.8
- L@OKC103–127−7.3
OKC1779
- Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
- First 55 games: +127.9
- Last 10 games: +33.0
- W@UTA130–107+4.4
- W@MIN130–123+6.4
- LMIN128–131−10.6
- W@BKN129–121+2.1
- W@ATL135–119+4.8
- W@SAS146–132+3.9
- WHOU137–128+2.6
- W@MEM120–103+9.3
- WPOR107–89+2.8
- WDEN127–103+7.3
Season scoring marginDEN+4.7OKC+12.6
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
DEN+4.7
Scores 121.2, allows 116.5 over 64 games: +4.7 a game.
OKC+12.6
Scores 119.2, allows 106.6 over 65 games: +12.6 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10DEN117.3OKC124.2
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.4).
DEN117.3scored, +3.9 vs league
| Factor | DEN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.8% | 54.2% | +3.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.1% | +0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.1% | 25.1% | +1.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.162 | 0.194 | −0.9 | |
| Everything else | −0.9 |
OKC124.2scored, +10.8 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.6% | 54.2% | +6.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.2% | 12.1% | +4.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.5% | 25.1% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.198 | 0.194 | +0.1 | |
| Everything else | +0.7 |
Defensive rating, last 10DEN118.2OKC111.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.4).
DEN118.2allowed, +4.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.3% | 54.2% | −1.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.7% | 12.1% | −3.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.4% | 25.1% | +1.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.218 | 0.194 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
OKC111.0allowed, −2.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.3% | 54.2% | +2.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.1% | +0.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.1% | 25.1% | −0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.197 | 0.194 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | −0.4 |
Pace, last 10average 102.0
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
DEN 101.0 and OKC 103.0 → average 102.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingDEN25.9OKC0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
DEN25.9pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gordon | 18.0 | 28.2 | 6 |
| Julian Strawther | 7.9 | 19.1 | 7 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-03-10 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
OKC0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-03-10 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestDEN1 daysOKC1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
DEN1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 9 against OKC.
OKC1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 9 against DEN.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
DEN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | @OKC | 103–127 | 40-97 | 12-40 | 11-20 | 7 | 14 | 104.0 | 128.3 | 99.0 |
| Mar 7 | PHX | 149–141 | 57-97 | 21-40 | 14-18 | 9 | 8 | 136.7 | 129.4 | 98.7 |
| Mar 5 | SAC | 116–110 | 40-87 | 12-35 | 24-30 | 13 | 11 | 116.0 | 112.2 | 99.0 |
| Mar 2 | @BOS | 103–110 | 41-86 | 12-35 | 9-13 | 11 | 8 | 108.4 | 118.3 | 94.0 |
| Feb 28 | @DET | 134–119 | 47-84 | 17-31 | 23-31 | 19 | 10 | 128.8 | 114.4 | 104.0 |
| Feb 27 | @MIL | 112–121 | 47-105 | 9-34 | 9-11 | 13 | 14 | 103.7 | 113.1 | 107.5 |
| Feb 24 | @IND | 125–116 | 53-94 | 8-21 | 11-14 | 19 | 14 | 120.2 | 110.5 | 104.5 |
| Feb 22 | LAL | 100–123 | 34-85 | 16-41 | 16-21 | 20 | 12 | 104.2 | 125.5 | 97.0 |
| Feb 20 | CHA | 129–115 | 49-98 | 19-43 | 12-16 | 13 | 16 | 126.5 | 113.9 | 101.5 |
| Feb 12 | POR | 132–121 | 49-96 | 15-38 | 19-24 | 12 | 12 | 124.5 | 116.3 | 105.0 |
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | DEN | 127–103 | 46-94 | 13-38 | 22-25 | 5 | 10 | 128.3 | 104.0 | 99.0 |
| Mar 7 | POR | 107–89 | 39-84 | 14-38 | 15-17 | 11 | 4 | 104.9 | 86.4 | 102.5 |
| Mar 5 | @MEM | 120–103 | 44-87 | 15-36 | 17-19 | 11 | 3 | 114.3 | 99.0 | 104.5 |
| Mar 3 | HOU | 137–128 | 48-97 | 17-37 | 24-27 | 13 | 14 | 124.5 | 118.5 | 109.0 |
| Mar 2 | @SAS | 146–132 | 55-101 | 19-44 | 17-20 | 7 | 12 | 143.1 | 129.4 | 102.0 |
| Feb 28 | @ATL | 135–119 | 51-101 | 23-50 | 10-12 | 11 | 9 | 125.0 | 110.2 | 108.0 |
| Feb 26 | @BKN | 129–121 | 48-90 | 9-30 | 24-29 | 11 | 11 | 129.0 | 121.0 | 100.0 |
| Feb 24 | MIN | 128–131 | 45-106 | 15-49 | 23-29 | 11 | 16 | 111.3 | 113.9 | 104.2 |
| Feb 23 | @MIN | 130–123 | 48-86 | 19-35 | 15-20 | 13 | 7 | 131.3 | 123.0 | 99.5 |
| Feb 21 | @UTA | 130–107 | 46-97 | 19-43 | 19-20 | 12 | 17 | 130.0 | 104.9 | 101.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | DEN | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 140 | 127 |
| Field goals | 52–86 · 60.5% | 47–100 · 47.0% |
| Three-pointers | 18–32 · 56.3% | 19–47 · 40.4% |
| Free throws | 18–20 · 90.0% | 14–16 · 87.5% |
| Rebounds | 43 | 37 |
| Assists | 32 | 29 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 10 |
| Steals | 6 | 9 |
| Blocks | 5 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Oklahoma City Thunder
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (OKC) | +13 | −13 | −26 |
| Total points | 239 | 267 | +28 |
| DEN points | 113 | 140 | +27 |
| OKC points | 126 | 127 | +1 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 2024-25 | DEN at OKC | DEN 103 – 127 OKC |
| Nov 6 2024-25 | OKC at DEN | OKC 122 – 124 DEN |
| Oct 24 2024-25 | OKC at DEN | OKC 102 – 87 DEN |
| Jan 31 2023-24 | DEN at OKC | DEN 100 – 105 OKC |
| Dec 29 2023-24 | OKC at DEN | OKC 119 – 93 DEN |