Western Conference · 2026-27

Los Angeles Clippers LAC

2–7

2026-27 record

1477

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

107.6

Offensive rating

last 10 games

114.3

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

99.8

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded LAC game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 242 of 355 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of LAC's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. LAC ranks 20 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 9:00 PM ET

LAC Los Angeles Clippers 2–7 –

@PHX Phoenix Suns 3–5 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 10:30 PM ET

OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 8–2 –

@LAC Los Angeles Clippers 2–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked LAC games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 9 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

11.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.3 to 15.6

−3.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -10.6 to 3.7

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

78%

winner picked

9 games involving LAC

2 / 4.4

actual / expected wins

gap −2.4

0.190

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 9 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs NOP	61%	119–115	W 139–123	✓correct	+12
Nov 4	vs MIA	42%	116–120	L 116–117	✓correct	+3
Nov 2	vs TOR	41%	113–116	L 118–125	✓correct	−4
Nov 1	at GSW	53%	113–112	L 112–124	✗missed	−13
Oct 30	at MIN	44%	113–115	L 101–127	✓correct	−24
Oct 28	vs LAL	62%	115–111	L 87–103	✗missed	−20
Oct 25	at OKC	26%	108–117	L 101–108	✓correct	+2
Oct 23	at LAL	44%	111–113	L 117–125	✓correct	−6
Oct 21	vs SAC	69%	118–111	W 121–96	✓correct	+18

2025-26

11.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.9 to 13.1; 16th smallest of 30

+0.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.4 to 2.8

14.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

71%

winner picked

82 games involving LAC

42 / 42.9

actual / expected wins

gap −0.8

0.201

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	vs GSW	71%	117–109	W 115–110	✓correct	−3
Apr 10	at POR	47%	112–113	L 97–116	✓correct	−18
Apr 8	vs OKC	44%	110–112	L 110–128	✓correct	−16
Apr 7	vs DAL	83%	127–113	W 116–103	✓correct	−1
Apr 5	at SAC	74%	119–110	W 138–109	✓correct	+20
Apr 2	vs SAS	47%	112–113	L 99–118	✓correct	−18
Mar 31	vs POR	61%	116–112	L 104–114	✗missed	−14
Mar 29	at MIL	81%	120–107	W 127–113	✓correct	+1
Mar 27	at IND	71%	122–114	W 114–113	✓correct	−7
Mar 25	vs TOR	56%	118–116	W 119–94	✓correct	+23
Mar 23	vs MIL	76%	121–111	W 129–96	✓correct	+23
Mar 21	at DAL	66%	122–116	W 138–131	✓correct	+1
Mar 19	at NOP	53%	118–117	L 99–105	✗missed	−7
Mar 18	at NOP	56%	120–118	L 109–124	✗missed	−17
Mar 16	vs SAS	36%	111–116	L 115–119	✓correct	+1
Mar 14	vs SAC	86%	125–109	L 109–118	✗missed	−25
Mar 13	vs CHI	80%	124–112	W 119–108	✓correct	−1
Mar 11	vs MIN	56%	116–114	W 153–128	✓correct	+23
Mar 9	vs NYK	47%	110–111	W 126–118	✗missed	+9
Mar 7	at MEM	58%	117–114	W 123–120	✓correct	±0
Mar 6	at SAS	26%	110–119	L 112–116	✓correct	+5
Mar 4	vs IND	83%	121–107	W 130–107	✓correct	+9
Mar 2	at GSW	47%	112–113	W 114–101	✗missed	+14
Mar 1	vs NOP	61%	116–112	W 137–117	✓correct	+16
Feb 26	vs MIN	44%	113–115	L 88–94	✓correct	−4
Feb 22	vs ORL	53%	114–113	L 109–111	✗missed	−3
Feb 20	at LAL	47%	113–114	L 122–125	✓correct	−2
Feb 19	vs DEN	53%	111–110	W 115–114	✓correct	±0
Feb 11	at HOU	47%	108–109	W 105–102	✗missed	+4
Feb 10	at HOU	39%	108–112	L 95–102	✓correct	−3
Feb 8	at MIN	34%	113–119	W 115–96	✗missed	+25
Feb 6	at SAC	64%	115–110	W 114–111	✓correct	−2
Feb 4	vs CLE	44%	112–114	L 91–124	✓correct	−31
Feb 2	vs PHI	59%	115–112	L 113–128	✗missed	−18
Feb 1	at PHX	44%	109–111	W 117–93	✗missed	+26
Jan 30	at DEN	53%	110–109	L 109–122	✗missed	−14
Jan 27	at UTA	81%	124–111	W 115–103	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs BKN	85%	115–100	W 126–89	✓correct	+22
Jan 22	vs LAL	53%	114–113	W 112–104	✓correct	+7
Jan 20	at CHI	41%	111–114	L 110–138	✓correct	−25
Jan 19	at WAS	61%	116–112	W 110–106	✓correct	±0
Jan 16	at TOR	41%	107–110	W 121–117	✗missed	+7
Jan 14	vs WAS	78%	118–107	W 119–105	✓correct	+3
Jan 12	vs CHA	47%	112–113	W 117–109	✗missed	+9
Jan 10	at DET	39%	109–113	W 98–92	✗missed	+10
Jan 9	at BKN	53%	111–110	W 121–105	✓correct	+15
Jan 7	at NYK	47%	115–116	L 111–123	✓correct	−11
Jan 5	vs GSW	47%	113–114	W 103–102	✗missed	+2
Jan 3	vs BOS	39%	108–112	L 115–146	✓correct	−27
Jan 1	vs UTA	80%	120–108	W 118–101	✓correct	+5
Dec 30	vs SAC	76%	115–105	W 131–90	✓correct	+31
Dec 28	vs DET	34%	111–117	W 112–99	✗missed	+19
Dec 26	at POR	56%	115–113	W 119–103	✓correct	+14
Dec 23	vs HOU	34%	109–115	W 128–108	✗missed	+26
Dec 20	vs LAL	53%	115–114	W 103–88	✓correct	+14
Dec 18	at OKC	11%	107–125	L 101–122	✓correct	−3
Dec 15	vs MEM	44%	113–115	L 103–121	✓correct	−16
Dec 11	at HOU	26%	109–118	L 113–115	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	at MIN	24%	112–122	L 106–109	✓correct	+7
Dec 5	at MEM	47%	114–115	L 98–107	✓correct	−8
Dec 3	at ATL	34%	115–121	W 115–92	✗missed	+29
Dec 1	at MIA	26%	113–122	L 123–140	✓correct	−8
Nov 29	vs DAL	64%	117–112	L 110–114	✗missed	−9
Nov 28	vs MEM	47%	114–115	L 107–112	✓correct	−4
Nov 25	at LAL	34%	111–117	L 118–135	✓correct	−11
Nov 23	at CLE	24%	110–120	L 105–120	✓correct	−5
Nov 22	at CHA	53%	113–112	W 131–116	✓correct	+14
Nov 20	at ORL	31%	108–115	L 101–129	✓correct	−21
Nov 17	at PHI	44%	112–114	L 108–110	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	at BOS	26%	106–115	L 118–121	✓correct	+6
Nov 14	at DAL	44%	112–114	W 133–127	✗missed	+8
Nov 12	vs DEN	34%	110–116	L 116–130	✓correct	−8
Nov 10	vs ATL	47%	114–115	L 102–105	✓correct	−2
Nov 8	vs PHX	53%	115–114	L 103–114	✗missed	−12
Nov 6	at PHX	47%	112–113	L 102–115	✓correct	−12
Nov 4	vs OKC	36%	107–112	L 107–126	✓correct	−14
Nov 3	vs MIA	64%	115–110	L 119–120	✗missed	−6
Oct 31	vs NOP	82%	116–103	W 126–124	✓correct	−11
Oct 28	at GSW	47%	110–111	L 79–98	✓correct	−18
Oct 26	vs POR	61%	114–110	W 114–107	✓correct	+3
Oct 24	vs PHX	69%	116–109	W 129–102	✓correct	+20
Oct 22	at UTA	71%	119–111	L 108–129	✗missed	−29

2024-25

11.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.7 to 13.0; 20th smallest of 30

+2.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.2 to 4.9

14.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

70%

winner picked

89 games involving LAC

53 / 48.6

actual / expected wins

gap +4.4

0.201

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 89 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 3 PO	at DEN	38%	102–106	L 101–120	✓correct	−15
May 1 PO	vs DEN	64%	109–104	W 111–105	✓correct	+1
Apr 29 PO	at DEN	61%	105–100	L 115–131	✗missed	−21
Apr 26 PO	vs DEN	62%	107–103	L 99–101	✗missed	−6
Apr 24 PO	vs DEN	62%	108–104	W 117–83	✓correct	+30
Apr 21 PO	at DEN	43%	105–107	W 105–102	✗missed	+5
Apr 19 PO	at DEN	43%	107–109	L 110–112	✓correct	±0
Apr 13	at GSW	51%	111–110	W 124–119	✓correct	+4
Apr 11	at SAC	64%	115–109	W 101–100	✓correct	−5
Apr 9	vs HOU	62%	113–109	W 134–117	✓correct	+13
Apr 8	vs SAS	77%	121–110	W 122–117	✓correct	−6
Apr 5	vs DAL	77%	121–110	W 135–104	✓correct	+20
Apr 4	vs DAL	73%	120–111	W 114–91	✓correct	+14
Apr 2	vs NOP	82%	119–105	W 114–98	✓correct	+2
Mar 31	at ORL	51%	110–109	W 96–87	✓correct	+8
Mar 30	at CLE	41%	113–116	L 122–127	✓correct	−2
Mar 28	at BKN	79%	116–103	W 132–100	✓correct	+19
Mar 26	at NYK	51%	109–108	W 126–113	✓correct	+12
Mar 23	vs OKC	44%	111–114	L 101–103	✓correct	+1
Mar 21	vs MEM	67%	116–110	W 128–108	✓correct	+14
Mar 18	vs CLE	41%	108–112	W 132–119	✗missed	+17
Mar 16	vs CHA	81%	118–105	W 123–88	✓correct	+22
Mar 14	at ATL	46%	116–117	W 121–98	✗missed	+24
Mar 12	at MIA	46%	109–110	W 119–104	✗missed	+16
Mar 11	at NOP	61%	114–109	L 120–127	✗missed	−12
Mar 9	vs SAC	59%	110–107	W 111–110	✓correct	−2
Mar 7	vs NYK	59%	114–111	W 105–95	✓correct	+7
Mar 5	vs DET	39%	113–118	W 123–115	✗missed	+13
Mar 4	at PHX	46%	116–117	L 117–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 2	at LAL	38%	113–117	L 102–108	✓correct	−2
Feb 28	at LAL	38%	114–118	L 102–106	✓correct	±0
Feb 26	at CHI	56%	118–115	W 122–117	✓correct	+2
Feb 24	at DET	31%	115–122	L 97–106	✓correct	−2
Feb 23	at IND	29%	114–122	L 111–129	✓correct	−10
Feb 20	at MIL	51%	117–116	L 110–116	✗missed	−7
Feb 13	at UTA	64%	120–114	W 120–116	✓correct	−2
Feb 12	vs MEM	59%	120–117	W 128–114	✓correct	+11
Feb 8	vs UTA	79%	121–109	W 130–110	✓correct	+8
Feb 6	vs IND	46%	112–114	L 112–119	✓correct	−5
Feb 4	vs LAL	57%	110–108	L 97–122	✗missed	−27
Feb 2	at TOR	56%	110–107	L 108–115	✗missed	−10
Jan 31	at CHA	73%	115–105	W 112–104	✓correct	−2
Jan 29	at SAS	61%	116–111	W 128–116	✓correct	+7
Jan 27	at PHX	51%	113–112	L 109–111	✗missed	−3
Jan 25	vs MIL	62%	114–110	W 127–117	✓correct	+6
Jan 23	vs WAS	84%	122–107	W 110–93	✓correct	+2
Jan 22	vs BOS	32%	102–110	L 113–117	✓correct	+4
Jan 20	vs CHI	69%	118–111	L 99–112	✗missed	−20
Jan 19	vs LAL	59%	111–108	W 116–102	✓correct	+11
Jan 16	at POR	61%	115–110	W 118–89	✓correct	+24
Jan 15	vs BKN	77%	116–105	W 126–67	✓correct	+48
Jan 13	vs MIA	57%	110–108	W 109–98	✓correct	+9
Jan 8	at DEN	36%	114–119	L 103–126	✓correct	−18
Jan 6	at MIN	51%	113–112	L 106–108	✗missed	−3
Jan 4	vs ATL	64%	118–113	W 131–105	✓correct	+21
Jan 2	at OKC	18%	107–121	L 98–116	✓correct	−4
Dec 31	at SAS	54%	114–112	L 86–122	✗missed	−38
Dec 30	at NOP	71%	121–112	W 116–113	✓correct	−6
Dec 27	vs GSW	69%	114–107	W 102–92	✓correct	+3
Dec 23	at MEM	31%	113–120	W 114–110	✗missed	+11
Dec 21	at DAL	36%	113–118	L 97–113	✓correct	−11
Dec 19	at DAL	31%	111–118	W 118–95	✗missed	+30
Dec 16	vs UTA	73%	116–107	W 144–107	✓correct	+28
Dec 13	at DEN	33%	114–120	L 98–120	✓correct	−16
Dec 8	vs HOU	57%	113–111	L 106–117	✗missed	−13
Dec 4	vs MIN	64%	109–104	L 80–108	✗missed	−33
Dec 3	vs POR	77%	118–107	W 127–105	✓correct	+11
Dec 1	vs DEN	57%	115–113	W 126–122	✓correct	+2
Nov 29	at MIN	46%	110–111	L 92–93	✓correct	±0
Nov 27	at WAS	66%	119–112	W 121–96	✓correct	+18
Nov 25	at BOS	31%	109–116	L 94–126	✓correct	−25
Nov 24	at PHI	56%	108–105	W 125–99	✓correct	+23
Nov 22	vs SAC	54%	109–108	W 104–88	✓correct	+15
Nov 20	vs ORL	49%	106–107	W 104–93	✗missed	+12
Nov 18	vs GSW	46%	113–115	W 102–99	✗missed	+5
Nov 17	vs UTA	75%	117–107	W 116–105	✓correct	+1
Nov 15	at HOU	43%	107–109	L 104–125	✓correct	−19
Nov 13	at HOU	41%	108–111	L 103–111	✓correct	−5
Nov 11	at OKC	27%	108–117	L 128–134	✓correct	+3
Nov 9	vs TOR	75%	118–108	W 105–103	✓correct	−8
Nov 8	at SAC	36%	108–113	W 107–98	✗missed	+14
Nov 6	vs PHI	59%	110–107	W 110–98	✓correct	+9
Nov 4	vs SAS	64%	111–106	W 113–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 2	vs OKC	49%	106–107	L 92–105	✓correct	−12
Oct 31	vs PHX	57%	109–107	L 119–125	✗missed	−8
Oct 30	vs POR	75%	113–103	L 105–106	✗missed	−11
Oct 27	at GSW	29%	108–116	W 112–104	✗missed	+16
Oct 26	at DEN	38%	105–109	W 109–104	✗missed	+9
Oct 23	vs PHX	62%	110–106	L 113–116	✗missed	−7

2023-24

10.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.9 to 11.7; 7th smallest of 30

−0.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.7 to 1.7

13.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

71%

winner picked

88 games involving LAC

53 / 49.3

actual / expected wins

gap +3.7

0.224

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 88 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 3 PO	at DAL	34%	103–109	L 101–114	✓correct	−7
May 1 PO	vs DAL	59%	107–105	L 93–123	✗missed	−32
Apr 28 PO	at DAL	37%	106–110	W 116–111	✗missed	+9
Apr 26 PO	at DAL	34%	106–112	L 90–101	✓correct	−5
Apr 23 PO	vs DAL	67%	112–106	L 93–96	✗missed	−9
Apr 21 PO	vs DAL	63%	112–108	W 109–97	✓correct	+8
Apr 14	vs HOU	65%	112–107	L 105–116	✗missed	−16
Apr 12	vs UTA	76%	116–104	L 109–110	✗missed	−13
Apr 10	vs PHX	49%	109–112	L 108–124	✓correct	−13
Apr 9	at PHX	30%	107–115	W 105–92	✗missed	+21
Apr 7	vs CLE	59%	110–108	W 120–118	✓correct	±0
Apr 5	vs UTA	79%	114–100	W 131–102	✓correct	+15
Apr 4	vs DEN	57%	110–109	W 102–100	✓correct	+1
Apr 2	at SAC	47%	109–108	L 95–109	✗missed	−15
Mar 31	at CHA	61%	115–107	W 130–118	✓correct	+4
Mar 29	at ORL	47%	110–109	W 100–97	✓correct	+2
Mar 27	at PHI	51%	110–107	W 108–107	✓correct	−2
Mar 25	vs IND	61%	116–113	L 116–133	✗missed	−20
Mar 24	vs PHI	65%	110–105	L 107–121	✗missed	−19
Mar 22	at POR	69%	117–105	W 125–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 20	at POR	63%	115–106	W 116–103	✓correct	+4
Mar 17	vs ATL	65%	111–106	L 93–110	✗missed	−22
Mar 15	at NOP	35%	108–113	L 104–112	✓correct	−3
Mar 14	at CHI	55%	114–109	W 126–111	✓correct	+10
Mar 12	vs MIN	67%	113–107	L 100–118	✗missed	−24
Mar 10	vs MIL	53%	111–112	L 117–124	✓correct	−6
Mar 9	vs CHI	63%	113–109	W 112–102	✓correct	+6
Mar 6	at HOU	53%	116–112	W 122–116	✓correct	+2
Mar 4	at MIL	35%	108–113	L 106–113	✓correct	−2
Mar 3	at MIN	37%	112–116	W 89–88	✗missed	+5
Mar 1	vs WAS	81%	123–108	W 140–115	✓correct	+10
Feb 28	vs LAL	63%	119–115	L 112–116	✗missed	−8
Feb 25	vs SAC	70%	121–113	L 107–123	✗missed	−24
Feb 23	at MEM	51%	117–114	W 101–95	✓correct	+3
Feb 22	at OKC	32%	109–116	L 107–129	✓correct	−15
Feb 14	at GSW	37%	114–118	W 130–125	✗missed	+9
Feb 12	vs MIN	63%	113–109	L 100–121	✗missed	−25
Feb 10	vs DET	84%	127–109	W 112–106	✓correct	−12
Feb 7	vs NOP	65%	117–112	L 106–117	✗missed	−16
Feb 5	at ATL	53%	121–117	W 149–144	✓correct	+1
Feb 4	at MIA	61%	116–108	W 103–95	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	at DET	57%	121–115	W 136–125	✓correct	+5
Jan 31	at WAS	59%	117–110	W 125–109	✓correct	+9
Jan 29	at CLE	43%	111–112	L 108–118	✓correct	−9
Jan 27	at BOS	43%	110–111	W 115–96	✗missed	+20
Jan 26	at TOR	49%	117–115	W 127–107	✓correct	+18
Jan 23	vs LAL	68%	118–111	W 127–116	✓correct	+4
Jan 21	vs BKN	76%	118–106	W 125–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 16	vs OKC	61%	114–111	W 128–117	✓correct	+8
Jan 14	at MIN	39%	107–110	L 105–109	✓correct	−1
Jan 12	at MEM	59%	115–108	W 128–119	✓correct	+2
Jan 10	vs TOR	67%	119–113	W 126–120	✓correct	±0
Jan 8	vs PHX	63%	116–112	W 138–111	✓correct	+23
Jan 7	at LAL	57%	117–111	L 103–106	✗missed	−9
Jan 5	at NOP	43%	111–112	W 111–95	✗missed	+17
Jan 3	at PHX	49%	115–113	W 131–122	✓correct	+7
Jan 1	vs MIA	57%	117–116	W 121–104	✓correct	+16
Dec 29	vs MEM	68%	119–112	W 117–106	✓correct	+4
Dec 26	vs CHA	78%	120–107	W 113–104	✓correct	−4
Dec 23	vs BOS	53%	114–115	L 108–145	✓correct	−36
Dec 21	at OKC	35%	112–117	L 115–134	✓correct	−14
Dec 20	at DAL	53%	117–113	W 120–111	✓correct	+5
Dec 18	at IND	51%	119–116	W 151–127	✓correct	+21
Dec 16	vs NYK	59%	113–111	W 144–122	✓correct	+20
Dec 14	vs GSW	67%	118–112	W 121–113	✓correct	+2
Dec 12	vs SAC	67%	118–112	W 119–99	✓correct	+14
Dec 11	vs POR	75%	115–104	W 132–127	✓correct	−6
Dec 8	at UTA	59%	116–109	W 117–103	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	vs DEN	63%	115–111	W 111–102	✓correct	+5
Dec 2	vs GSW	67%	115–109	W 113–112	✓correct	−5
Nov 30	at GSW	43%	114–115	L 114–120	✓correct	−5
Nov 29	at SAC	35%	112–117	W 131–117	✗missed	+19
Nov 27	vs DEN	65%	113–108	L 104–113	✗missed	−14
Nov 25	vs DAL	61%	117–114	W 107–88	✓correct	+16
Nov 24	vs NOP	59%	115–113	L 106–116	✗missed	−12
Nov 22	at SAS	53%	118–114	W 109–102	✓correct	+3
Nov 20	at SAS	55%	118–113	W 124–99	✓correct	+20
Nov 17	vs HOU	59%	113–111	W 106–100	✓correct	+4
Nov 14	at DEN	41%	112–114	L 108–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 12	vs MEM	68%	118–111	L 101–105	✗missed	−11
Nov 10	at DAL	39%	115–118	L 126–144	✓correct	−15
Nov 8	at BKN	47%	115–114	L 93–100	✗missed	−8
Nov 6	at NYK	39%	109–112	L 97–111	✓correct	−11
Nov 1	at LAL	35%	112–117	L 125–130	✓correct	±0
Oct 31	vs ORL	65%	118–113	W 118–102	✓correct	+11
Oct 29	vs SAS	67%	121–115	W 123–83	✓correct	+34
Oct 27	at UTA	49%	118–116	L 118–120	✗missed	−4
Oct 25	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 123–111	✓correct	+5

2022-23

9.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.8 to 11.2; 11th smallest of 30

−0.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.3 to 1.9

12.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

61%

winner picked

87 games involving LAC

45 / 44.1

actual / expected wins

gap +0.9

0.227

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 87 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 25 PO	at PHX	26%	106–116	L 130–136	✓correct	+4
Apr 22 PO	vs PHX	63%	114–109	L 100–112	✗missed	−17
Apr 20 PO	vs PHX	63%	116–111	L 124–129	✗missed	−10
Apr 18 PO	at PHX	30%	112–120	L 109–123	✓correct	−6
Apr 16 PO	at PHX	28%	108–117	W 115–110	✗missed	+14
Apr 9	at PHX	42%	112–115	W 119–114	✗missed	+8
Apr 8	vs POR	72%	124–115	W 136–125	✓correct	+2
Apr 5	vs LAL	53%	116–115	W 125–118	✓correct	+6
Apr 1	at NOP	37%	111–116	L 114–122	✓correct	−3
Mar 31	at MEM	37%	110–115	L 94–108	✓correct	−9
Mar 29	at MEM	42%	110–113	W 141–132	✗missed	+12
Mar 27	vs CHI	60%	111–107	W 124–112	✓correct	+8
Mar 25	vs NOP	63%	114–109	L 110–131	✗missed	−26
Mar 23	vs OKC	47%	113–114	W 127–105	✗missed	+23
Mar 21	vs OKC	53%	116–115	L 100–101	✗missed	−2
Mar 19	at POR	70%	125–117	W 117–102	✓correct	+7
Mar 18	vs ORL	55%	118–116	L 108–113	✗missed	−7
Mar 15	vs GSW	55%	117–115	W 134–126	✓correct	+6
Mar 11	vs NYK	58%	119–116	W 106–95	✓correct	+8
Mar 8	vs TOR	45%	115–117	W 108–100	✗missed	+10
Mar 5	vs MEM	53%	116–115	W 135–129	✓correct	+5
Mar 3	at SAC	40%	116–120	L 127–128	✓correct	+3
Mar 2	at GSW	42%	116–119	L 91–115	✓correct	−21
Feb 28	vs MIN	63%	119–114	L 101–108	✗missed	−12
Feb 26	at DEN	37%	110–115	L 124–134	✓correct	−5
Feb 24	vs SAC	55%	116–114	L 175–176	✗missed	−3
Feb 16	at PHX	40%	111–115	W 116–107	✗missed	+13
Feb 14	vs GSW	74%	125–115	W 134–124	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	vs MIL	63%	119–114	L 106–119	✗missed	−18
Feb 8	vs DAL	58%	110–107	L 104–110	✗missed	−9
Feb 6	at BKN	47%	117–118	W 124–116	✗missed	+9
Feb 4	at NYK	42%	113–116	W 134–128	✗missed	+9
Feb 2	at MIL	37%	113–118	L 105–106	✓correct	+4
Jan 31	at CHI	45%	114–116	W 108–103	✗missed	+7
Jan 29	at CLE	28%	110–119	L 99–122	✓correct	−14
Jan 28	at ATL	35%	112–118	W 120–113	✗missed	+13
Jan 26	vs SAS	78%	123–111	W 138–100	✓correct	+26
Jan 24	at LAL	45%	114–116	W 133–115	✗missed	+20
Jan 22	at DAL	35%	109–115	W 112–98	✗missed	+20
Jan 20	at SAS	65%	122–116	W 131–126	✓correct	−1
Jan 18	at UTA	35%	115–121	L 103–126	✓correct	−17
Jan 17	vs PHI	42%	114–117	L 110–120	✓correct	−7
Jan 15	vs HOU	72%	119–110	W 121–100	✓correct	+12
Jan 13	vs DEN	53%	114–113	L 103–115	✗missed	−13
Jan 10	vs DAL	42%	112–115	W 113–101	✗missed	+15
Jan 8	vs ATL	45%	116–118	L 108–112	✓correct	−2
Jan 6	at MIN	47%	116–117	L 115–128	✓correct	−12
Jan 5	at DEN	42%	112–115	L 91–122	✓correct	−28
Jan 2	vs MIA	47%	110–111	L 100–110	✓correct	−9
Dec 31	at IND	60%	116–112	L 130–131	✗missed	−5
Dec 29	at BOS	37%	112–117	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 27	at TOR	47%	112–113	W 124–113	✗missed	+12
Dec 26	at DET	68%	116–109	W 142–131	✓correct	+4
Dec 23	at PHI	47%	109–110	L 114–119	✓correct	−4
Dec 21	vs CHA	80%	118–105	W 126–105	✓correct	+8
Dec 17	vs WAS	55%	116–114	W 102–93	✓correct	+7
Dec 15	vs PHX	28%	106–115	L 95–111	✓correct	−7
Dec 14	vs MIN	58%	114–111	W 99–88	✓correct	+8
Dec 12	vs BOS	30%	109–117	W 113–93	✗missed	+28
Dec 10	at WAS	53%	116–115	W 114–107	✓correct	+6
Dec 8	at MIA	32%	106–113	L 110–115	✓correct	+2
Dec 7	at ORL	53%	111–110	L 111–116	✗missed	−6
Dec 5	at CHA	63%	112–107	W 119–117	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	vs SAC	53%	117–116	L 96–123	✗missed	−28
Nov 30	at UTA	42%	112–115	L 112–125	✓correct	−10
Nov 29	at POR	55%	111–109	W 118–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 27	vs IND	53%	113–112	W 114–100	✓correct	+13
Nov 25	vs DEN	47%	108–109	L 104–114	✓correct	−9
Nov 23	at GSW	40%	110–114	L 107–124	✓correct	−13
Nov 21	vs UTA	35%	108–114	W 121–114	✗missed	+13
Nov 19	vs SAS	74%	115–105	W 119–97	✓correct	+12
Nov 17	vs DET	80%	116–103	W 96–91	✓correct	−8
Nov 15	at DAL	42%	106–109	L 101–103	✓correct	+1
Nov 14	at HOU	58%	113–110	W 122–106	✓correct	+13
Nov 12	vs BKN	55%	107–105	L 95–110	✗missed	−17
Nov 9	vs LAL	65%	111–105	W 114–101	✓correct	+7
Nov 7	vs CLE	26%	100–110	W 119–117	✗missed	+12
Nov 6	vs UTA	37%	106–111	L 102–110	✓correct	−3
Nov 4	at SAS	55%	110–108	W 113–106	✓correct	+5
Nov 2	at HOU	68%	113–106	W 109–101	✓correct	+1
Oct 31	vs HOU	63%	113–108	W 95–93	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	vs NOP	45%	110–112	L 91–112	✓correct	−19
Oct 27	at OKC	63%	112–107	L 110–118	✗missed	−13
Oct 25	at OKC	58%	114–111	L 94–108	✗missed	−17
Oct 23	vs PHX	55%	107–105	L 95–112	✗missed	−19
Oct 22	at SAC	65%	116–110	W 111–109	✓correct	−4
Oct 20	at LAL	63%	120–115	W 103–97	✓correct	+1

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.0 to 11.5; 11th smallest of 30

+0.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.8 to 1.5

13.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

68%

winner picked

355 games involving LAC

195 / 189.3

actual / expected wins

gap +5.7

0.213

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 355 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs NOP	61%	119–115	W 139–123	✓correct	+12
Nov 4	vs MIA	42%	116–120	L 116–117	✓correct	+3
Nov 2	vs TOR	41%	113–116	L 118–125	✓correct	−4
Nov 1	at GSW	53%	113–112	L 112–124	✗missed	−13
Oct 30	at MIN	44%	113–115	L 101–127	✓correct	−24
Oct 28	vs LAL	62%	115–111	L 87–103	✗missed	−20
Oct 25	at OKC	26%	108–117	L 101–108	✓correct	+2
Oct 23	at LAL	44%	111–113	L 117–125	✓correct	−6
Oct 21	vs SAC	69%	118–111	W 121–96	✓correct	+18
Apr 12	vs GSW	71%	117–109	W 115–110	✓correct	−3
Apr 10	at POR	47%	112–113	L 97–116	✓correct	−18
Apr 8	vs OKC	44%	110–112	L 110–128	✓correct	−16
Apr 7	vs DAL	83%	127–113	W 116–103	✓correct	−1
Apr 5	at SAC	74%	119–110	W 138–109	✓correct	+20
Apr 2	vs SAS	47%	112–113	L 99–118	✓correct	−18
Mar 31	vs POR	61%	116–112	L 104–114	✗missed	−14
Mar 29	at MIL	81%	120–107	W 127–113	✓correct	+1
Mar 27	at IND	71%	122–114	W 114–113	✓correct	−7
Mar 25	vs TOR	56%	118–116	W 119–94	✓correct	+23
Mar 23	vs MIL	76%	121–111	W 129–96	✓correct	+23
Mar 21	at DAL	66%	122–116	W 138–131	✓correct	+1
Mar 19	at NOP	53%	118–117	L 99–105	✗missed	−7
Mar 18	at NOP	56%	120–118	L 109–124	✗missed	−17
Mar 16	vs SAS	36%	111–116	L 115–119	✓correct	+1
Mar 14	vs SAC	86%	125–109	L 109–118	✗missed	−25
Mar 13	vs CHI	80%	124–112	W 119–108	✓correct	−1
Mar 11	vs MIN	56%	116–114	W 153–128	✓correct	+23
Mar 9	vs NYK	47%	110–111	W 126–118	✗missed	+9
Mar 7	at MEM	58%	117–114	W 123–120	✓correct	±0
Mar 6	at SAS	26%	110–119	L 112–116	✓correct	+5
Mar 4	vs IND	83%	121–107	W 130–107	✓correct	+9
Mar 2	at GSW	47%	112–113	W 114–101	✗missed	+14
Mar 1	vs NOP	61%	116–112	W 137–117	✓correct	+16
Feb 26	vs MIN	44%	113–115	L 88–94	✓correct	−4
Feb 22	vs ORL	53%	114–113	L 109–111	✗missed	−3
Feb 20	at LAL	47%	113–114	L 122–125	✓correct	−2
Feb 19	vs DEN	53%	111–110	W 115–114	✓correct	±0
Feb 11	at HOU	47%	108–109	W 105–102	✗missed	+4
Feb 10	at HOU	39%	108–112	L 95–102	✓correct	−3
Feb 8	at MIN	34%	113–119	W 115–96	✗missed	+25
Feb 6	at SAC	64%	115–110	W 114–111	✓correct	−2
Feb 4	vs CLE	44%	112–114	L 91–124	✓correct	−31
Feb 2	vs PHI	59%	115–112	L 113–128	✗missed	−18
Feb 1	at PHX	44%	109–111	W 117–93	✗missed	+26
Jan 30	at DEN	53%	110–109	L 109–122	✗missed	−14
Jan 27	at UTA	81%	124–111	W 115–103	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs BKN	85%	115–100	W 126–89	✓correct	+22
Jan 22	vs LAL	53%	114–113	W 112–104	✓correct	+7
Jan 20	at CHI	41%	111–114	L 110–138	✓correct	−25
Jan 19	at WAS	61%	116–112	W 110–106	✓correct	±0
Jan 16	at TOR	41%	107–110	W 121–117	✗missed	+7
Jan 14	vs WAS	78%	118–107	W 119–105	✓correct	+3
Jan 12	vs CHA	47%	112–113	W 117–109	✗missed	+9
Jan 10	at DET	39%	109–113	W 98–92	✗missed	+10
Jan 9	at BKN	53%	111–110	W 121–105	✓correct	+15
Jan 7	at NYK	47%	115–116	L 111–123	✓correct	−11
Jan 5	vs GSW	47%	113–114	W 103–102	✗missed	+2
Jan 3	vs BOS	39%	108–112	L 115–146	✓correct	−27
Jan 1	vs UTA	80%	120–108	W 118–101	✓correct	+5
Dec 30	vs SAC	76%	115–105	W 131–90	✓correct	+31
Dec 28	vs DET	34%	111–117	W 112–99	✗missed	+19
Dec 26	at POR	56%	115–113	W 119–103	✓correct	+14
Dec 23	vs HOU	34%	109–115	W 128–108	✗missed	+26
Dec 20	vs LAL	53%	115–114	W 103–88	✓correct	+14
Dec 18	at OKC	11%	107–125	L 101–122	✓correct	−3
Dec 15	vs MEM	44%	113–115	L 103–121	✓correct	−16
Dec 11	at HOU	26%	109–118	L 113–115	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	at MIN	24%	112–122	L 106–109	✓correct	+7
Dec 5	at MEM	47%	114–115	L 98–107	✓correct	−8
Dec 3	at ATL	34%	115–121	W 115–92	✗missed	+29
Dec 1	at MIA	26%	113–122	L 123–140	✓correct	−8
Nov 29	vs DAL	64%	117–112	L 110–114	✗missed	−9
Nov 28	vs MEM	47%	114–115	L 107–112	✓correct	−4
Nov 25	at LAL	34%	111–117	L 118–135	✓correct	−11
Nov 23	at CLE	24%	110–120	L 105–120	✓correct	−5
Nov 22	at CHA	53%	113–112	W 131–116	✓correct	+14
Nov 20	at ORL	31%	108–115	L 101–129	✓correct	−21
Nov 17	at PHI	44%	112–114	L 108–110	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	at BOS	26%	106–115	L 118–121	✓correct	+6
Nov 14	at DAL	44%	112–114	W 133–127	✗missed	+8
Nov 12	vs DEN	34%	110–116	L 116–130	✓correct	−8
Nov 10	vs ATL	47%	114–115	L 102–105	✓correct	−2
Nov 8	vs PHX	53%	115–114	L 103–114	✗missed	−12
Nov 6	at PHX	47%	112–113	L 102–115	✓correct	−12
Nov 4	vs OKC	36%	107–112	L 107–126	✓correct	−14
Nov 3	vs MIA	64%	115–110	L 119–120	✗missed	−6
Oct 31	vs NOP	82%	116–103	W 126–124	✓correct	−11
Oct 28	at GSW	47%	110–111	L 79–98	✓correct	−18
Oct 26	vs POR	61%	114–110	W 114–107	✓correct	+3
Oct 24	vs PHX	69%	116–109	W 129–102	✓correct	+20
Oct 22	at UTA	71%	119–111	L 108–129	✗missed	−29
May 3 PO	at DEN	38%	102–106	L 101–120	✓correct	−15
May 1 PO	vs DEN	64%	109–104	W 111–105	✓correct	+1
Apr 29 PO	at DEN	61%	105–100	L 115–131	✗missed	−21
Apr 26 PO	vs DEN	62%	107–103	L 99–101	✗missed	−6
Apr 24 PO	vs DEN	62%	108–104	W 117–83	✓correct	+30
Apr 21 PO	at DEN	43%	105–107	W 105–102	✗missed	+5
Apr 19 PO	at DEN	43%	107–109	L 110–112	✓correct	±0
Apr 13	at GSW	51%	111–110	W 124–119	✓correct	+4
Apr 11	at SAC	64%	115–109	W 101–100	✓correct	−5
Apr 9	vs HOU	62%	113–109	W 134–117	✓correct	+13
Apr 8	vs SAS	77%	121–110	W 122–117	✓correct	−6
Apr 5	vs DAL	77%	121–110	W 135–104	✓correct	+20
Apr 4	vs DAL	73%	120–111	W 114–91	✓correct	+14
Apr 2	vs NOP	82%	119–105	W 114–98	✓correct	+2
Mar 31	at ORL	51%	110–109	W 96–87	✓correct	+8
Mar 30	at CLE	41%	113–116	L 122–127	✓correct	−2
Mar 28	at BKN	79%	116–103	W 132–100	✓correct	+19
Mar 26	at NYK	51%	109–108	W 126–113	✓correct	+12
Mar 23	vs OKC	44%	111–114	L 101–103	✓correct	+1
Mar 21	vs MEM	67%	116–110	W 128–108	✓correct	+14
Mar 18	vs CLE	41%	108–112	W 132–119	✗missed	+17
Mar 16	vs CHA	81%	118–105	W 123–88	✓correct	+22
Mar 14	at ATL	46%	116–117	W 121–98	✗missed	+24
Mar 12	at MIA	46%	109–110	W 119–104	✗missed	+16
Mar 11	at NOP	61%	114–109	L 120–127	✗missed	−12
Mar 9	vs SAC	59%	110–107	W 111–110	✓correct	−2
Mar 7	vs NYK	59%	114–111	W 105–95	✓correct	+7
Mar 5	vs DET	39%	113–118	W 123–115	✗missed	+13
Mar 4	at PHX	46%	116–117	L 117–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 2	at LAL	38%	113–117	L 102–108	✓correct	−2
Feb 28	at LAL	38%	114–118	L 102–106	✓correct	±0
Feb 26	at CHI	56%	118–115	W 122–117	✓correct	+2
Feb 24	at DET	31%	115–122	L 97–106	✓correct	−2
Feb 23	at IND	29%	114–122	L 111–129	✓correct	−10
Feb 20	at MIL	51%	117–116	L 110–116	✗missed	−7
Feb 13	at UTA	64%	120–114	W 120–116	✓correct	−2
Feb 12	vs MEM	59%	120–117	W 128–114	✓correct	+11
Feb 8	vs UTA	79%	121–109	W 130–110	✓correct	+8
Feb 6	vs IND	46%	112–114	L 112–119	✓correct	−5
Feb 4	vs LAL	57%	110–108	L 97–122	✗missed	−27
Feb 2	at TOR	56%	110–107	L 108–115	✗missed	−10
Jan 31	at CHA	73%	115–105	W 112–104	✓correct	−2
Jan 29	at SAS	61%	116–111	W 128–116	✓correct	+7
Jan 27	at PHX	51%	113–112	L 109–111	✗missed	−3
Jan 25	vs MIL	62%	114–110	W 127–117	✓correct	+6
Jan 23	vs WAS	84%	122–107	W 110–93	✓correct	+2
Jan 22	vs BOS	32%	102–110	L 113–117	✓correct	+4
Jan 20	vs CHI	69%	118–111	L 99–112	✗missed	−20
Jan 19	vs LAL	59%	111–108	W 116–102	✓correct	+11
Jan 16	at POR	61%	115–110	W 118–89	✓correct	+24
Jan 15	vs BKN	77%	116–105	W 126–67	✓correct	+48
Jan 13	vs MIA	57%	110–108	W 109–98	✓correct	+9
Jan 8	at DEN	36%	114–119	L 103–126	✓correct	−18
Jan 6	at MIN	51%	113–112	L 106–108	✗missed	−3
Jan 4	vs ATL	64%	118–113	W 131–105	✓correct	+21
Jan 2	at OKC	18%	107–121	L 98–116	✓correct	−4
Dec 31	at SAS	54%	114–112	L 86–122	✗missed	−38
Dec 30	at NOP	71%	121–112	W 116–113	✓correct	−6
Dec 27	vs GSW	69%	114–107	W 102–92	✓correct	+3
Dec 23	at MEM	31%	113–120	W 114–110	✗missed	+11
Dec 21	at DAL	36%	113–118	L 97–113	✓correct	−11
Dec 19	at DAL	31%	111–118	W 118–95	✗missed	+30
Dec 16	vs UTA	73%	116–107	W 144–107	✓correct	+28
Dec 13	at DEN	33%	114–120	L 98–120	✓correct	−16
Dec 8	vs HOU	57%	113–111	L 106–117	✗missed	−13
Dec 4	vs MIN	64%	109–104	L 80–108	✗missed	−33
Dec 3	vs POR	77%	118–107	W 127–105	✓correct	+11
Dec 1	vs DEN	57%	115–113	W 126–122	✓correct	+2
Nov 29	at MIN	46%	110–111	L 92–93	✓correct	±0
Nov 27	at WAS	66%	119–112	W 121–96	✓correct	+18
Nov 25	at BOS	31%	109–116	L 94–126	✓correct	−25
Nov 24	at PHI	56%	108–105	W 125–99	✓correct	+23
Nov 22	vs SAC	54%	109–108	W 104–88	✓correct	+15
Nov 20	vs ORL	49%	106–107	W 104–93	✗missed	+12
Nov 18	vs GSW	46%	113–115	W 102–99	✗missed	+5
Nov 17	vs UTA	75%	117–107	W 116–105	✓correct	+1
Nov 15	at HOU	43%	107–109	L 104–125	✓correct	−19
Nov 13	at HOU	41%	108–111	L 103–111	✓correct	−5
Nov 11	at OKC	27%	108–117	L 128–134	✓correct	+3
Nov 9	vs TOR	75%	118–108	W 105–103	✓correct	−8
Nov 8	at SAC	36%	108–113	W 107–98	✗missed	+14
Nov 6	vs PHI	59%	110–107	W 110–98	✓correct	+9
Nov 4	vs SAS	64%	111–106	W 113–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 2	vs OKC	49%	106–107	L 92–105	✓correct	−12
Oct 31	vs PHX	57%	109–107	L 119–125	✗missed	−8
Oct 30	vs POR	75%	113–103	L 105–106	✗missed	−11
Oct 27	at GSW	29%	108–116	W 112–104	✗missed	+16
Oct 26	at DEN	38%	105–109	W 109–104	✗missed	+9
Oct 23	vs PHX	62%	110–106	L 113–116	✗missed	−7
May 3 PO	at DAL	34%	103–109	L 101–114	✓correct	−7
May 1 PO	vs DAL	59%	107–105	L 93–123	✗missed	−32
Apr 28 PO	at DAL	37%	106–110	W 116–111	✗missed	+9
Apr 26 PO	at DAL	34%	106–112	L 90–101	✓correct	−5
Apr 23 PO	vs DAL	67%	112–106	L 93–96	✗missed	−9
Apr 21 PO	vs DAL	63%	112–108	W 109–97	✓correct	+8
Apr 14	vs HOU	65%	112–107	L 105–116	✗missed	−16
Apr 12	vs UTA	76%	116–104	L 109–110	✗missed	−13
Apr 10	vs PHX	49%	109–112	L 108–124	✓correct	−13
Apr 9	at PHX	30%	107–115	W 105–92	✗missed	+21
Apr 7	vs CLE	59%	110–108	W 120–118	✓correct	±0
Apr 5	vs UTA	79%	114–100	W 131–102	✓correct	+15
Apr 4	vs DEN	57%	110–109	W 102–100	✓correct	+1
Apr 2	at SAC	47%	109–108	L 95–109	✗missed	−15
Mar 31	at CHA	61%	115–107	W 130–118	✓correct	+4
Mar 29	at ORL	47%	110–109	W 100–97	✓correct	+2
Mar 27	at PHI	51%	110–107	W 108–107	✓correct	−2
Mar 25	vs IND	61%	116–113	L 116–133	✗missed	−20
Mar 24	vs PHI	65%	110–105	L 107–121	✗missed	−19
Mar 22	at POR	69%	117–105	W 125–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 20	at POR	63%	115–106	W 116–103	✓correct	+4
Mar 17	vs ATL	65%	111–106	L 93–110	✗missed	−22
Mar 15	at NOP	35%	108–113	L 104–112	✓correct	−3
Mar 14	at CHI	55%	114–109	W 126–111	✓correct	+10
Mar 12	vs MIN	67%	113–107	L 100–118	✗missed	−24
Mar 10	vs MIL	53%	111–112	L 117–124	✓correct	−6
Mar 9	vs CHI	63%	113–109	W 112–102	✓correct	+6
Mar 6	at HOU	53%	116–112	W 122–116	✓correct	+2
Mar 4	at MIL	35%	108–113	L 106–113	✓correct	−2
Mar 3	at MIN	37%	112–116	W 89–88	✗missed	+5
Mar 1	vs WAS	81%	123–108	W 140–115	✓correct	+10
Feb 28	vs LAL	63%	119–115	L 112–116	✗missed	−8
Feb 25	vs SAC	70%	121–113	L 107–123	✗missed	−24
Feb 23	at MEM	51%	117–114	W 101–95	✓correct	+3
Feb 22	at OKC	32%	109–116	L 107–129	✓correct	−15
Feb 14	at GSW	37%	114–118	W 130–125	✗missed	+9
Feb 12	vs MIN	63%	113–109	L 100–121	✗missed	−25
Feb 10	vs DET	84%	127–109	W 112–106	✓correct	−12
Feb 7	vs NOP	65%	117–112	L 106–117	✗missed	−16
Feb 5	at ATL	53%	121–117	W 149–144	✓correct	+1
Feb 4	at MIA	61%	116–108	W 103–95	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	at DET	57%	121–115	W 136–125	✓correct	+5
Jan 31	at WAS	59%	117–110	W 125–109	✓correct	+9
Jan 29	at CLE	43%	111–112	L 108–118	✓correct	−9
Jan 27	at BOS	43%	110–111	W 115–96	✗missed	+20
Jan 26	at TOR	49%	117–115	W 127–107	✓correct	+18
Jan 23	vs LAL	68%	118–111	W 127–116	✓correct	+4
Jan 21	vs BKN	76%	118–106	W 125–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 16	vs OKC	61%	114–111	W 128–117	✓correct	+8
Jan 14	at MIN	39%	107–110	L 105–109	✓correct	−1
Jan 12	at MEM	59%	115–108	W 128–119	✓correct	+2
Jan 10	vs TOR	67%	119–113	W 126–120	✓correct	±0
Jan 8	vs PHX	63%	116–112	W 138–111	✓correct	+23
Jan 7	at LAL	57%	117–111	L 103–106	✗missed	−9
Jan 5	at NOP	43%	111–112	W 111–95	✗missed	+17
Jan 3	at PHX	49%	115–113	W 131–122	✓correct	+7
Jan 1	vs MIA	57%	117–116	W 121–104	✓correct	+16
Dec 29	vs MEM	68%	119–112	W 117–106	✓correct	+4
Dec 26	vs CHA	78%	120–107	W 113–104	✓correct	−4
Dec 23	vs BOS	53%	114–115	L 108–145	✓correct	−36
Dec 21	at OKC	35%	112–117	L 115–134	✓correct	−14
Dec 20	at DAL	53%	117–113	W 120–111	✓correct	+5
Dec 18	at IND	51%	119–116	W 151–127	✓correct	+21
Dec 16	vs NYK	59%	113–111	W 144–122	✓correct	+20
Dec 14	vs GSW	67%	118–112	W 121–113	✓correct	+2
Dec 12	vs SAC	67%	118–112	W 119–99	✓correct	+14
Dec 11	vs POR	75%	115–104	W 132–127	✓correct	−6
Dec 8	at UTA	59%	116–109	W 117–103	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	vs DEN	63%	115–111	W 111–102	✓correct	+5
Dec 2	vs GSW	67%	115–109	W 113–112	✓correct	−5
Nov 30	at GSW	43%	114–115	L 114–120	✓correct	−5
Nov 29	at SAC	35%	112–117	W 131–117	✗missed	+19
Nov 27	vs DEN	65%	113–108	L 104–113	✗missed	−14
Nov 25	vs DAL	61%	117–114	W 107–88	✓correct	+16
Nov 24	vs NOP	59%	115–113	L 106–116	✗missed	−12
Nov 22	at SAS	53%	118–114	W 109–102	✓correct	+3
Nov 20	at SAS	55%	118–113	W 124–99	✓correct	+20
Nov 17	vs HOU	59%	113–111	W 106–100	✓correct	+4
Nov 14	at DEN	41%	112–114	L 108–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 12	vs MEM	68%	118–111	L 101–105	✗missed	−11
Nov 10	at DAL	39%	115–118	L 126–144	✓correct	−15
Nov 8	at BKN	47%	115–114	L 93–100	✗missed	−8
Nov 6	at NYK	39%	109–112	L 97–111	✓correct	−11
Nov 1	at LAL	35%	112–117	L 125–130	✓correct	±0
Oct 31	vs ORL	65%	118–113	W 118–102	✓correct	+11
Oct 29	vs SAS	67%	121–115	W 123–83	✓correct	+34
Oct 27	at UTA	49%	118–116	L 118–120	✗missed	−4
Oct 25	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 123–111	✓correct	+5
Apr 25 PO	at PHX	26%	106–116	L 130–136	✓correct	+4
Apr 22 PO	vs PHX	63%	114–109	L 100–112	✗missed	−17
Apr 20 PO	vs PHX	63%	116–111	L 124–129	✗missed	−10
Apr 18 PO	at PHX	30%	112–120	L 109–123	✓correct	−6
Apr 16 PO	at PHX	28%	108–117	W 115–110	✗missed	+14
Apr 9	at PHX	42%	112–115	W 119–114	✗missed	+8
Apr 8	vs POR	72%	124–115	W 136–125	✓correct	+2
Apr 5	vs LAL	53%	116–115	W 125–118	✓correct	+6
Apr 1	at NOP	37%	111–116	L 114–122	✓correct	−3
Mar 31	at MEM	37%	110–115	L 94–108	✓correct	−9
Mar 29	at MEM	42%	110–113	W 141–132	✗missed	+12
Mar 27	vs CHI	60%	111–107	W 124–112	✓correct	+8
Mar 25	vs NOP	63%	114–109	L 110–131	✗missed	−26
Mar 23	vs OKC	47%	113–114	W 127–105	✗missed	+23
Mar 21	vs OKC	53%	116–115	L 100–101	✗missed	−2
Mar 19	at POR	70%	125–117	W 117–102	✓correct	+7
Mar 18	vs ORL	55%	118–116	L 108–113	✗missed	−7
Mar 15	vs GSW	55%	117–115	W 134–126	✓correct	+6
Mar 11	vs NYK	58%	119–116	W 106–95	✓correct	+8
Mar 8	vs TOR	45%	115–117	W 108–100	✗missed	+10
Mar 5	vs MEM	53%	116–115	W 135–129	✓correct	+5
Mar 3	at SAC	40%	116–120	L 127–128	✓correct	+3
Mar 2	at GSW	42%	116–119	L 91–115	✓correct	−21
Feb 28	vs MIN	63%	119–114	L 101–108	✗missed	−12
Feb 26	at DEN	37%	110–115	L 124–134	✓correct	−5
Feb 24	vs SAC	55%	116–114	L 175–176	✗missed	−3
Feb 16	at PHX	40%	111–115	W 116–107	✗missed	+13
Feb 14	vs GSW	74%	125–115	W 134–124	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	vs MIL	63%	119–114	L 106–119	✗missed	−18
Feb 8	vs DAL	58%	110–107	L 104–110	✗missed	−9
Feb 6	at BKN	47%	117–118	W 124–116	✗missed	+9
Feb 4	at NYK	42%	113–116	W 134–128	✗missed	+9
Feb 2	at MIL	37%	113–118	L 105–106	✓correct	+4
Jan 31	at CHI	45%	114–116	W 108–103	✗missed	+7
Jan 29	at CLE	28%	110–119	L 99–122	✓correct	−14
Jan 28	at ATL	35%	112–118	W 120–113	✗missed	+13
Jan 26	vs SAS	78%	123–111	W 138–100	✓correct	+26
Jan 24	at LAL	45%	114–116	W 133–115	✗missed	+20
Jan 22	at DAL	35%	109–115	W 112–98	✗missed	+20
Jan 20	at SAS	65%	122–116	W 131–126	✓correct	−1
Jan 18	at UTA	35%	115–121	L 103–126	✓correct	−17
Jan 17	vs PHI	42%	114–117	L 110–120	✓correct	−7
Jan 15	vs HOU	72%	119–110	W 121–100	✓correct	+12
Jan 13	vs DEN	53%	114–113	L 103–115	✗missed	−13
Jan 10	vs DAL	42%	112–115	W 113–101	✗missed	+15
Jan 8	vs ATL	45%	116–118	L 108–112	✓correct	−2
Jan 6	at MIN	47%	116–117	L 115–128	✓correct	−12
Jan 5	at DEN	42%	112–115	L 91–122	✓correct	−28
Jan 2	vs MIA	47%	110–111	L 100–110	✓correct	−9
Dec 31	at IND	60%	116–112	L 130–131	✗missed	−5
Dec 29	at BOS	37%	112–117	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 27	at TOR	47%	112–113	W 124–113	✗missed	+12
Dec 26	at DET	68%	116–109	W 142–131	✓correct	+4
Dec 23	at PHI	47%	109–110	L 114–119	✓correct	−4
Dec 21	vs CHA	80%	118–105	W 126–105	✓correct	+8
Dec 17	vs WAS	55%	116–114	W 102–93	✓correct	+7
Dec 15	vs PHX	28%	106–115	L 95–111	✓correct	−7
Dec 14	vs MIN	58%	114–111	W 99–88	✓correct	+8
Dec 12	vs BOS	30%	109–117	W 113–93	✗missed	+28
Dec 10	at WAS	53%	116–115	W 114–107	✓correct	+6
Dec 8	at MIA	32%	106–113	L 110–115	✓correct	+2
Dec 7	at ORL	53%	111–110	L 111–116	✗missed	−6
Dec 5	at CHA	63%	112–107	W 119–117	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	vs SAC	53%	117–116	L 96–123	✗missed	−28
Nov 30	at UTA	42%	112–115	L 112–125	✓correct	−10
Nov 29	at POR	55%	111–109	W 118–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 27	vs IND	53%	113–112	W 114–100	✓correct	+13
Nov 25	vs DEN	47%	108–109	L 104–114	✓correct	−9
Nov 23	at GSW	40%	110–114	L 107–124	✓correct	−13
Nov 21	vs UTA	35%	108–114	W 121–114	✗missed	+13
Nov 19	vs SAS	74%	115–105	W 119–97	✓correct	+12
Nov 17	vs DET	80%	116–103	W 96–91	✓correct	−8
Nov 15	at DAL	42%	106–109	L 101–103	✓correct	+1
Nov 14	at HOU	58%	113–110	W 122–106	✓correct	+13
Nov 12	vs BKN	55%	107–105	L 95–110	✗missed	−17
Nov 9	vs LAL	65%	111–105	W 114–101	✓correct	+7
Nov 7	vs CLE	26%	100–110	W 119–117	✗missed	+12
Nov 6	vs UTA	37%	106–111	L 102–110	✓correct	−3
Nov 4	at SAS	55%	110–108	W 113–106	✓correct	+5
Nov 2	at HOU	68%	113–106	W 109–101	✓correct	+1
Oct 31	vs HOU	63%	113–108	W 95–93	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	vs NOP	45%	110–112	L 91–112	✓correct	−19
Oct 27	at OKC	63%	112–107	L 110–118	✗missed	−13
Oct 25	at OKC	58%	114–111	L 94–108	✗missed	−17
Oct 23	vs PHX	55%	107–105	L 95–112	✗missed	−19
Oct 22	at SAC	65%	116–110	W 111–109	✓correct	−4
Oct 20	at LAL	63%	120–115	W 103–97	✓correct	+1

Surprise games

All LAC surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected LAC wins

26%LAC beat CLE119–117Nov 7, 2022-23 · forecast CLE110–100 · missed margin by 12
28%LAC beat PHX115–110Apr 16, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast PHX117–108 · missed margin by 14
29%LAC beat GSW112–104Oct 27, 2024-25 · forecast GSW116–108 · missed margin by 16
30%LAC beat PHX105–92Apr 9, 2023-24 · forecast PHX115–107 · missed margin by 21
30%LAC beat BOS113–93Dec 12, 2022-23 · forecast BOS117–109 · missed margin by 28

Most unexpected LAC losses

14%SAC beat LAC118–109Mar 14, 2025-26 · forecast LAC125–109 · missed margin by 25
24%UTA beat LAC110–109Apr 12, 2023-24 · forecast LAC116–104 · missed margin by 13
25%POR beat LAC106–105Oct 30, 2024-25 · forecast LAC113–103 · missed margin by 11
29%UTA beat LAC129–108Oct 22, 2025-26 · forecast LAC119–111 · missed margin by 29
30%SAC beat LAC123–107Feb 25, 2023-24 · forecast LAC121–113 · missed margin by 24

Largest margin misses

77%LAC beat BKN126–67Jan 15, 2024-25 · forecast LAC116–105 · missed margin by 48
46%SAS beat LAC122–86Dec 31, 2024-25 · forecast LAC114–112 · missed margin by 38
47%BOS beat LAC145–108Dec 23, 2023-24 · forecast BOS115–114 · missed margin by 36
67%LAC beat SAS123–83Oct 29, 2023-24 · forecast LAC121–115 · missed margin by 34
36%MIN beat LAC108–80Dec 4, 2024-25 · forecast LAC109–104 · missed margin by 33

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected LAC wins

Most unexpected LAC losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions