2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs

Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

OKC 0–0@SAS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder	112	116	+4
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	111	104	−7

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 50% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

50%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

OKC was the forecast favorite

11 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual −12 for SAS

48th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

59th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.69 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	OKC	SAS
Final score	116	104
Field goals	43–95 · 45.3%	36–93 · 38.7%
Three-pointers	14–31 · 45.2%	10–37 · 27.0%
Free throws	16–20 · 80.0%	22–25 · 88.0%
Rebounds	47	45
Assists	24	21
Turnovers	11	13
Steals	8	6
Blocks	10	11

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	−1	−12	−11
Total points	223	220	−3
OKC points	112	116	+4
SAS points	111	104	−7

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-10-20 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.