2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, February 12, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET
MIL 1–4@OKC 2–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL Milwaukee Bucks | 104 | 110 | +6 |
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) | 116 | 93 | −23 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MIL | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1430 | 1712 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +353 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −3.8 | +12.4 |
| Games played this season | 52 | 54 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 112.5 | 116.8 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 119.1 | 110.3 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 97.2 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 20.5 | 64.3 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMIL1430OKC1712
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MIL1430
- Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
- First 42 games: −100.4
- Last 10 games: −11.6
- LOKC102–122−6.0
- LDEN100–102−4.0
- L@PHI122–139−9.7
- L@WAS99–109−12.7
- L@BOS79–107−5.6
- WCHI131–115+12.8
- WNOP141–137+3.8
- WIND105–99+4.7
- L@ORL99–118−9.3
- W@ORL116–108+14.4
OKC1712
- Ended last season at 1760 → started this one at 1695
- First 44 games: +46.8
- Last 10 games: −29.3
- LIND114–117−16.1
- LTOR101–103−10.1
- WNOP104–95+1.2
- L@MIN111–123−14.1
- W@DEN121–111+7.8
- WORL128–92+6.1
- L@SAS106–116−12.5
- LHOU106–112−13.9
- W@LAL119–110+6.9
- W@PHX136–109+15.4
Season scoring marginMIL−3.8OKC+12.4
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MIL−3.8
Scores 111.8, allows 115.6 over 52 games: −3.8 a game.
OKC+12.4
Scores 120.4, allows 107.9 over 54 games: +12.4 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10MIL112.5OKC116.8
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
MIL112.5scored, −2.1 vs league
| Factor | MIL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.5% | 54.5% | +1.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.0% | 12.2% | +0.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.144 | 0.211 | −1.9 | |
| Everything else | −2.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
OKC116.8scored, +2.2 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.9% | 54.5% | +0.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.6% | 12.2% | +0.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.237 | 0.211 | +0.7 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10MIL119.1OKC110.3
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
MIL119.1allowed, +4.5 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.6% | 54.5% | −0.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 8.3% | 12.2% | −5.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.195 | 0.211 | +0.5 | |
| Everything else | +0.7 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
OKC110.3allowed, −4.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.0% | 54.5% | +2.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.2% | −0.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.160 | 0.211 | +1.5 | |
| Everything else | +1.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 97.2
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MIL 96.0 and OKC 98.5 → average 97.2 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.3)
Rotation points missingMIL20.5OKC64.3
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MIL20.5pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 20.5 | 31.8 | 2 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-12 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
OKC64.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 30.7 | 33.1 | 6 |
| Jalen Williams | 25.5 | 22.0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 8.2 | 21.2 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-12 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
RestMIL1 daysOKC1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MIL1day, back-to-back
Last played Feb 11 against ORL.
OKC1day, back-to-back
Last played Feb 11 against PHX.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MIL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | @ORL | 116–108 | 39-81 | 14-36 | 24-24 | 15 | – | 124.7 | 117.4 | 92.5 |
| Feb 9 | @ORL | 99–118 | 36-77 | 12-33 | 15-21 | 19 | – | 101.0 | 118.0 | 99.0 |
| Feb 6 | IND | 105–99 | 44-95 | 13-43 | 4-6 | 11 | – | 114.1 | 106.5 | 92.5 |
| Feb 4 | NOP | 141–137 | 56-92 | 21-47 | 8-10 | 14 | – | 133.0 | 130.5 | 95.5 |
| Feb 3 | CHI | 131–115 | 50-97 | 23-38 | 8-15 | 13 | – | 131.0 | 112.7 | 101.0 |
| Feb 1 | @BOS | 79–107 | 29-82 | 10-34 | 11-15 | 10 | – | 90.8 | 124.4 | 86.5 |
| Jan 29 | @WAS | 99–109 | 41-98 | 10-38 | 7-9 | 9 | – | 97.1 | 107.9 | 101.5 |
| Jan 27 | @PHI | 122–139 | 44-86 | 15-34 | 19-27 | 11 | – | 123.2 | 141.8 | 98.5 |
| Jan 23 | DEN | 100–102 | 34-85 | 12-39 | 20-27 | 10 | – | 105.3 | 106.3 | 95.5 |
| Jan 21 | OKC | 102–122 | 40-81 | 16-41 | 6-9 | 16 | – | 105.2 | 125.8 | 97.0 |
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | @PHX | 136–109 | 52-89 | 15-36 | 17-19 | 8 | – | 143.2 | 114.7 | 95.0 |
| Feb 9 | @LAL | 119–110 | 42-87 | 14-33 | 21-29 | 15 | – | 120.2 | 111.1 | 99.0 |
| Feb 7 | HOU | 106–112 | 37-82 | 14-36 | 18-28 | 16 | – | 109.3 | 116.7 | 96.5 |
| Feb 4 | @SAS | 106–116 | 37-93 | 19-47 | 13-14 | 14 | – | 101.0 | 110.5 | 105.0 |
| Feb 3 | ORL | 128–92 | 48-93 | 12-35 | 20-26 | 10 | – | 132.0 | 93.9 | 97.5 |
| Feb 1 | @DEN | 121–111 | 40-85 | 19-48 | 22-27 | 13 | – | 122.2 | 112.1 | 99.0 |
| Jan 29 | @MIN | 111–123 | 41-86 | 11-31 | 18-20 | 15 | – | 113.3 | 124.2 | 98.5 |
| Jan 27 | NOP | 104–95 | 35-87 | 13-38 | 21-23 | 16 | – | 109.5 | 97.9 | 96.0 |
| Jan 25 | TOR | 101–103 | 33-75 | 11-43 | 24-31 | 11 | – | 104.1 | 105.1 | 97.5 |
| Jan 23 | IND | 114–117 | 40-82 | 7-26 | 27-30 | 9 | – | 112.9 | 117.0 | 100.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIL | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 110 | 93 |
| Field goals | 44–95 · 46.3% | 31–83 · 37.3% |
| Three-pointers | 17–42 · 40.5% | 15–45 · 33.3% |
| Free throws | 5–7 · 71.4% | 16–20 · 80.0% |
| Rebounds | 49 | 47 |
| Assists | 25 | 22 |
| Turnovers | 10 | 16 |
| Steals | 9 | 3 |
| Blocks | 6 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Oklahoma City Thunder
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (OKC) | +12 | −17 | −29 |
| Total points | 220 | 203 | −17 |
| MIL points | 104 | 110 | +6 |
| OKC points | 116 | 93 | −23 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 2025-26 | OKC at MIL | OKC 122 – 102 MIL |
| Mar 16 2024-25 | OKC at MIL | OKC 121 – 105 MIL |
| Feb 3 2024-25 | MIL at OKC | MIL 96 – 125 OKC |
| Apr 12 2023-24 | MIL at OKC | MIL 107 – 125 OKC |
| Mar 24 2023-24 | OKC at MIL | OKC 93 – 118 MIL |