Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Toronto Raptors TOR

5–4

2026-27 record

1539

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 6

115.3

Offensive rating

last 10 games

112.0

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

101.2

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded TOR game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 223 of 344 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of TOR's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. TOR ranks 14 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 7:30 PM ET

MEM Memphis Grizzlies 6–3 –

@TOR Toronto Raptors 5–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 7:00 PM ET

BOS Boston Celtics 8–2 –

@TOR Toronto Raptors 5–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 12 7:00 PM ET

TOR Toronto Raptors 5–4 –

@PHI Philadelphia 76ers 9–2 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked TOR games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 9 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

15.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.8 to 21.3

+1.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -8.2 to 11.7

19.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

78%

winner picked

9 games involving TOR

5 / 5.5

actual / expected wins

gap −0.5

0.203

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 9 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	TOR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 6	at MIL	70%	122–115	W 121–107	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	at DEN	55%	115–112	L 109–128	✗missed	−22
Nov 2	at LAC	59%	116–113	W 125–118	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	at LAL	47%	113–114	L 125–131	✓correct	−5
Oct 30	vs ORL	74%	115–106	L 114–121	✗missed	−16
Oct 28	vs ORL	67%	113–107	W 129–99	✓correct	+24
Oct 25	at MIN	41%	114–117	L 94–117	✓correct	−20
Oct 23	at WAS	64%	123–118	W 112–102	✓correct	+5
Oct 21	vs CHI	72%	123–115	W 135–92	✓correct	+35

2025-26

12.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.0 to 14.2; 26th smallest of 30

+0.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.1 to 3.0

15.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

63%

winner picked

89 games involving TOR

49 / 48.6

actual / expected wins

gap +0.4

0.224

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 89 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	TOR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 3 PO	at CLE	39%	104–108	L 102–114	✓correct	−8
May 1 PO	vs CLE	65%	117–111	W 112–110	✓correct	−4
Apr 29 PO	at CLE	39%	107–111	L 120–125	✓correct	−1
Apr 26 PO	vs CLE	58%	113–110	W 93–89	✓correct	+1
Apr 23 PO	vs CLE	53%	111–110	W 126–104	✓correct	+21
Apr 20 PO	at CLE	39%	111–115	L 105–115	✓correct	−6
Apr 18 PO	at CLE	39%	110–114	L 113–126	✓correct	−9
Apr 12	vs BKN	89%	120–102	W 136–101	✓correct	+17
Apr 10	at NYK	44%	113–115	L 95–112	✓correct	−15
Apr 9	vs MIA	69%	122–115	W 128–114	✓correct	+7
Apr 7	vs MIA	59%	121–118	W 121–95	✓correct	+23
Apr 5	at BOS	31%	112–119	L 101–115	✓correct	−7
Apr 3	at MEM	78%	124–113	W 128–96	✓correct	+21
Apr 1	vs SAC	78%	119–108	L 115–123	✗missed	−19
Mar 31	at DET	36%	113–118	L 116–127	✓correct	−6
Mar 29	vs ORL	53%	117–116	W 139–87	✓correct	+51
Mar 27	vs NOP	67%	119–113	W 119–106	✓correct	+7
Mar 25	at LAC	44%	116–118	L 94–119	✓correct	−23
Mar 23	at UTA	66%	114–108	W 143–127	✓correct	+10
Mar 22	at PHX	56%	115–113	L 98–120	✗missed	−24
Mar 20	at DEN	47%	118–119	L 115–121	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	at CHI	58%	118–115	W 139–109	✓correct	+27
Mar 15	vs DET	36%	109–114	W 119–108	✗missed	+16
Mar 13	vs PHX	53%	109–108	W 122–115	✓correct	+6
Mar 11	at NOP	58%	118–115	L 111–122	✗missed	−14
Mar 10	at HOU	41%	110–113	L 99–113	✓correct	−11
Mar 8	vs DAL	78%	121–110	W 122–92	✓correct	+19
Mar 5	at MIN	36%	113–118	L 107–115	✓correct	−3
Mar 3	vs NYK	47%	112–113	L 95–111	✓correct	−15
Feb 28	at WAS	78%	122–111	W 134–125	✓correct	−2
Feb 25	vs SAS	39%	114–118	L 107–110	✓correct	+1
Feb 24	vs OKC	53%	114–113	L 107–116	✗missed	−10
Feb 22	at MIL	53%	114–113	W 122–94	✓correct	+27
Feb 19	at CHI	66%	119–113	W 110–101	✓correct	+3
Feb 11	vs DET	53%	116–115	L 95–113	✗missed	−19
Feb 8	vs IND	78%	122–111	W 122–104	✓correct	+7
Feb 5	vs CHI	76%	122–112	W 123–107	✓correct	+6
Feb 4	vs MIN	53%	116–115	L 126–128	✗missed	−3
Feb 1	vs UTA	78%	123–112	W 107–100	✓correct	−4
Jan 30	at ORL	58%	114–111	L 120–130	✗missed	−13
Jan 28	vs NYK	56%	110–108	L 92–119	✗missed	−29
Jan 25	at OKC	22%	109–120	W 103–101	✗missed	+13
Jan 23	at POR	47%	112–113	W 110–98	✗missed	+13
Jan 21	at SAC	58%	114–111	W 122–109	✓correct	+10
Jan 20	at GSW	39%	111–115	W 145–127	✗missed	+22
Jan 18	at LAL	56%	114–112	L 93–110	✗missed	−19
Jan 16	vs LAC	59%	110–107	L 117–121	✗missed	−7
Jan 14	at IND	61%	119–115	W 115–101	✓correct	+10
Jan 12	vs PHI	53%	113–112	L 102–115	✗missed	−14
Jan 11	vs PHI	53%	111–110	W 116–115	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	at BOS	34%	109–115	L 117–125	✓correct	−2
Jan 7	at CHA	53%	115–114	W 97–96	✓correct	±0
Jan 5	vs ATL	61%	119–115	W 118–100	✓correct	+14
Jan 3	vs ATL	69%	119–112	W 134–117	✓correct	+10
Dec 31	vs DEN	53%	113–112	L 103–106	✗missed	−4
Dec 29	vs ORL	59%	113–110	W 107–106	✓correct	−2
Dec 28	vs GSW	39%	110–114	W 141–127	✗missed	+18
Dec 26	at WAS	66%	116–110	L 117–138	✗missed	−27
Dec 23	at MIA	41%	114–117	W 112–91	✗missed	+24
Dec 21	at BKN	47%	109–110	L 81–96	✓correct	−14
Dec 20	vs BOS	56%	111–109	L 96–112	✗missed	−18
Dec 18	at MIL	56%	112–110	W 111–105	✓correct	+4
Dec 15	at MIA	29%	110–118	W 106–96	✗missed	+18
Dec 9	vs NYK	34%	107–113	L 101–117	✓correct	−10
Dec 7	vs BOS	44%	109–111	L 113–121	✓correct	−6
Dec 5	vs CHA	76%	116–106	L 86–111	✗missed	−35
Dec 4	vs LAL	56%	115–113	L 120–123	✗missed	−5
Dec 2	vs POR	69%	120–113	W 121–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 30	at NYK	34%	114–120	L 94–116	✓correct	−16
Nov 29	at CHA	74%	119–110	L 111–118	✗missed	−16
Nov 26	vs IND	83%	124–110	W 97–95	✓correct	−12
Nov 24	vs CLE	64%	120–115	W 110–99	✓correct	+6
Nov 23	vs BKN	80%	119–107	W 119–109	✓correct	−2
Nov 21	vs WAS	91%	126–106	W 140–110	✓correct	+10
Nov 19	at PHI	64%	117–112	W 121–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	vs CHA	83%	122–108	W 110–108	✓correct	−12
Nov 15	at IND	69%	120–113	W 129–111	✓correct	+11
Nov 13	at CLE	31%	115–122	W 126–113	✗missed	+20
Nov 11	at BKN	64%	121–116	W 119–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 8	at PHI	56%	120–118	L 120–130	✗missed	−12
Nov 7	at ATL	39%	116–120	W 109–97	✗missed	+16
Nov 4	vs MIL	47%	118–119	W 128–100	✗missed	+29
Nov 2	vs MEM	44%	118–120	W 117–104	✗missed	+15
Oct 31	at CLE	24%	114–124	W 112–101	✗missed	+21
Oct 29	vs HOU	47%	111–112	L 121–139	✓correct	−17
Oct 27	at SAS	34%	114–120	L 103–121	✓correct	−12
Oct 26	at DAL	58%	121–118	L 129–139	✗missed	−13
Oct 24	vs MIL	53%	118–117	L 116–122	✗missed	−7
Oct 22	at ATL	39%	117–121	W 138–118	✗missed	+24

2024-25

11.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.5 to 12.9; 19th smallest of 30

+1.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.3 to 4.0

14.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

73%

winner picked

82 games involving TOR

30 / 30.4

actual / expected wins

gap −0.4

0.185

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	TOR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	at SAS	38%	111–115	L 118–125	✓correct	−3
Apr 11	at DAL	33%	111–117	L 102–124	✓correct	−16
Apr 9	vs CHA	64%	116–111	W 126–96	✓correct	+25
Apr 6	at BKN	64%	114–108	W 120–109	✓correct	+5
Apr 4	vs DET	36%	113–119	L 105–117	✓correct	−6
Apr 3	vs POR	39%	112–117	L 103–112	✓correct	−4
Apr 1	at CHI	33%	115–121	L 118–137	✓correct	−13
Mar 30	at PHI	54%	114–112	W 127–109	✓correct	+16
Mar 28	vs CHA	64%	115–110	W 108–97	✓correct	+6
Mar 26	at BKN	54%	109–107	W 116–86	✓correct	+28
Mar 24	at WAS	51%	116–115	W 112–104	✓correct	+7
Mar 23	vs SAS	54%	115–114	L 89–123	✗missed	−35
Mar 20	at GSW	23%	109–120	L 114–117	✓correct	+8
Mar 17	at PHX	27%	109–118	L 89–129	✓correct	−31
Mar 16	at POR	31%	111–118	L 102–105	✓correct	+4
Mar 14	at UTA	64%	117–111	W 126–118	✓correct	+2
Mar 12	vs PHI	57%	111–109	W 118–105	✓correct	+11
Mar 10	vs WAS	57%	113–111	W 119–104	✓correct	+13
Mar 8	vs WAS	54%	112–111	L 117–118	✗missed	−2
Mar 7	vs UTA	54%	114–113	W 118–109	✓correct	+8
Mar 4	at ORL	38%	105–109	W 114–113	✗missed	+5
Mar 2	at ORL	36%	106–111	W 104–102	✗missed	+7
Feb 28	at CHI	43%	114–116	L 115–125	✓correct	−8
Feb 26	at IND	27%	112–121	L 91–111	✓correct	−11
Feb 25	vs BOS	23%	104–116	L 101–111	✓correct	+2
Feb 23	vs PHX	39%	111–116	W 127–109	✗missed	+23
Feb 21	vs MIA	54%	110–109	L 111–120	✗missed	−10
Feb 12	vs CLE	27%	110–120	L 108–131	✓correct	−13
Feb 11	at PHI	29%	110–118	W 106–103	✗missed	+11
Feb 9	at HOU	29%	106–114	L 87–94	✓correct	+1
Feb 7	at OKC	15%	109–125	L 109–121	✓correct	+4
Feb 5	vs MEM	32%	113–121	L 107–138	✓correct	−23
Feb 4	vs NYK	44%	110–113	L 115–121	✓correct	−3
Feb 2	vs LAC	44%	107–110	W 115–108	✗missed	+10
Jan 31	vs CHI	67%	116–110	L 106–122	✗missed	−22
Jan 29	at WAS	59%	117–113	W 106–82	✓correct	+20
Jan 27	vs NOP	59%	115–112	W 113–104	✓correct	+6
Jan 25	at ATL	31%	111–118	W 117–94	✗missed	+30
Jan 23	at ATL	36%	113–118	W 122–119	✗missed	+8
Jan 21	vs ORL	46%	107–109	W 109–93	✗missed	+18
Jan 17	at MIL	19%	108–121	L 112–130	✓correct	−5
Jan 15	vs BOS	18%	103–118	W 110–97	✗missed	+28
Jan 13	vs GSW	46%	113–115	W 104–101	✗missed	+5
Jan 11	at DET	23%	109–120	L 114–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 9	at CLE	9%	108–129	L 126–132	✓correct	+15
Jan 8	at NYK	11%	105–124	L 98–112	✓correct	+5
Jan 6	vs MIL	39%	112–117	L 104–128	✓correct	−19
Jan 3	vs ORL	34%	108–115	L 97–106	✓correct	−2
Jan 1	vs BKN	44%	111–114	W 130–113	✗missed	+20
Dec 31	at BOS	15%	110–126	L 71–125	✓correct	−38
Dec 29	vs ATL	46%	117–119	L 107–136	✓correct	−27
Dec 26	at MEM	23%	112–123	L 126–155	✓correct	−18
Dec 23	at NYK	19%	107–120	L 125–139	✓correct	−1
Dec 22	vs HOU	32%	107–115	L 110–114	✓correct	+4
Dec 19	vs BKN	54%	114–113	L 94–101	✗missed	−8
Dec 16	vs CHI	41%	117–121	L 121–122	✓correct	+3
Dec 12	at MIA	27%	108–117	L 104–114	✓correct	−1
Dec 9	vs NYK	41%	114–118	L 108–113	✓correct	−1
Dec 7	vs DAL	46%	115–117	L 118–125	✓correct	−5
Dec 5	vs OKC	36%	108–114	L 92–129	✓correct	−31
Dec 3	vs IND	54%	117–116	W 122–111	✓correct	+10
Dec 1	vs MIA	39%	106–111	W 119–116	✗missed	+8
Nov 29	at MIA	27%	103–112	L 111–121	✓correct	−1
Nov 27	at NOP	38%	105–109	W 119–93	✗missed	+30
Nov 25	at DET	33%	105–111	L 100–102	✓correct	+4
Nov 24	at CLE	12%	106–124	L 108–122	✓correct	+4
Nov 21	vs MIN	39%	108–113	W 110–105	✗missed	+10
Nov 18	vs IND	44%	111–114	W 130–119	✗missed	+14
Nov 16	at BOS	9%	106–127	L 123–126	✓correct	+18
Nov 15	vs DET	46%	108–110	L 95–99	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	at MIL	27%	111–120	L 85–99	✓correct	−5
Nov 10	at LAL	21%	113–125	L 103–123	✓correct	−8
Nov 9	at LAC	25%	108–118	L 103–105	✓correct	+8
Nov 6	at SAC	19%	112–125	L 107–122	✓correct	−2
Nov 4	at DEN	27%	107–116	L 119–121	✓correct	+7
Nov 2	vs SAC	32%	111–119	W 131–128	✗missed	+11
Nov 1	vs LAL	34%	113–120	L 125–131	✓correct	+1
Oct 30	at CHA	31%	112–119	L 133–138	✓correct	+2
Oct 28	vs DEN	36%	106–112	L 125–127	✓correct	+4
Oct 26	at MIN	18%	104–118	L 101–112	✓correct	+3
Oct 25	vs PHI	34%	110–117	W 115–107	✗missed	+15
Oct 23	vs CLE	41%	109–113	L 106–136	✓correct	−26

2023-24

Across 82 graded games, TOR finished an average of 4.0 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -6.3 to -1.4).

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.9 to 12.4; 11th smallest of 30

−4.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -6.3 to -1.4

13.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

72%

winner picked

82 games involving TOR

25 / 37.1

actual / expected wins

gap −12.1

0.208

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	TOR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at MIA	24%	103–115	L 103–118	✓correct	−3
Apr 12	at MIA	22%	102–115	L 103–125	✓correct	−9
Apr 10	at BKN	28%	109–118	L 102–106	✓correct	+5
Apr 9	vs IND	26%	112–127	L 123–140	✓correct	−2
Apr 7	vs WAS	72%	121–112	W 130–122	✓correct	−1
Apr 5	at MIL	27%	105–115	W 117–111	✗missed	+16
Apr 3	at MIN	22%	104–117	L 85–133	✓correct	−35
Apr 2	vs LAL	33%	112–123	L 111–128	✓correct	−6
Mar 31	vs PHI	53%	110–111	L 120–135	✓correct	−14
Mar 27	vs NYK	26%	100–115	L 101–145	✓correct	−29
Mar 25	vs BKN	39%	108–116	L 88–96	✓correct	±0
Mar 23	at WAS	37%	115–119	L 109–112	✓correct	+1
Mar 22	vs OKC	29%	109–122	L 103–123	✓correct	−7
Mar 20	vs SAC	25%	106–122	L 89–123	✓correct	−18
Mar 17	at ORL	25%	106–117	L 96–111	✓correct	−4
Mar 15	vs ORL	29%	107–120	L 103–113	✓correct	+3
Mar 13	at DET	35%	115–120	L 104–113	✓correct	−4
Mar 11	at DEN	16%	109–127	L 119–125	✓correct	+12
Mar 9	at POR	43%	115–116	L 118–128	✓correct	−9
Mar 7	at PHX	34%	111–117	L 113–120	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	vs NOP	39%	112–120	L 98–139	✓correct	−33
Mar 3	vs CHA	67%	115–109	W 111–106	✓correct	−1
Mar 1	vs GSW	51%	119–121	L 105–120	✓correct	−13
Feb 28	vs DAL	51%	118–120	L 125–136	✓correct	−9
Feb 26	at IND	35%	116–121	W 130–122	✗missed	+13
Feb 23	at ATL	41%	122–124	W 123–121	✗missed	+4
Feb 22	vs BKN	47%	115–119	W 121–93	✗missed	+32
Feb 14	vs IND	45%	116–121	L 125–127	✓correct	+3
Feb 12	vs SAS	68%	119–112	L 99–122	✗missed	−30
Feb 10	vs CLE	47%	115–119	L 95–119	✓correct	−20
Feb 9	vs HOU	49%	116–119	W 107–104	✗missed	+6
Feb 7	at CHA	49%	116–114	W 123–117	✓correct	+4
Feb 5	at NOP	28%	112–121	L 100–138	✓correct	−29
Feb 4	at OKC	32%	110–117	L 127–135	✓correct	−1
Feb 2	at HOU	41%	116–118	L 106–135	✓correct	−27
Jan 30	at CHI	34%	112–118	W 118–107	✗missed	+17
Jan 28	at ATL	47%	117–116	L 125–126	✗missed	−2
Jan 26	vs LAC	51%	115–117	L 107–127	✓correct	−18
Jan 22	vs MEM	75%	125–114	L 100–108	✗missed	−19
Jan 20	at NYK	32%	110–117	L 100–126	✓correct	−19
Jan 18	vs CHI	53%	117–118	L 110–116	✓correct	−5
Jan 17	vs MIA	53%	116–117	W 121–97	✗missed	+25
Jan 15	vs BOS	49%	120–123	L 96–105	✓correct	−6
Jan 12	at UTA	43%	116–117	L 113–145	✓correct	−31
Jan 10	at LAC	34%	113–119	L 120–126	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	at LAL	47%	117–116	L 131–132	✗missed	−2
Jan 7	at GSW	43%	117–118	W 133–118	✗missed	+16
Jan 5	at SAC	39%	115–118	L 130–135	✓correct	−2
Jan 3	at MEM	51%	116–113	W 116–111	✓correct	+2
Jan 1	vs CLE	51%	114–116	W 124–121	✗missed	+5
Dec 30	at DET	51%	119–116	L 127–129	✗missed	−5
Dec 29	at BOS	39%	113–116	L 118–120	✓correct	+1
Dec 27	at WAS	53%	120–116	W 132–102	✓correct	+26
Dec 23	vs UTA	70%	120–112	L 119–126	✗missed	−15
Dec 22	at PHI	34%	113–119	L 111–121	✓correct	−4
Dec 20	vs DEN	47%	110–114	L 104–113	✓correct	−5
Dec 18	vs CHA	75%	118–107	W 114–99	✓correct	+4
Dec 15	vs ATL	61%	121–118	L 104–125	✗missed	−24
Dec 13	vs ATL	57%	119–118	W 135–128	✓correct	+6
Dec 11	at NYK	32%	109–116	L 130–136	✓correct	+1
Dec 8	at CHA	57%	118–112	L 116–119	✗missed	−9
Dec 6	vs MIA	59%	116–114	L 103–112	✗missed	−11
Dec 1	vs NYK	51%	112–114	L 106–119	✓correct	−11
Nov 29	vs PHX	51%	110–112	W 112–105	✗missed	+9
Nov 28	at BKN	43%	115–116	L 103–115	✓correct	−11
Nov 26	at CLE	41%	116–118	L 102–105	✓correct	−1
Nov 24	vs CHI	63%	115–111	W 121–108	✓correct	+9
Nov 22	at IND	51%	123–120	W 132–131	✓correct	−2
Nov 21	at ORL	41%	112–114	L 107–126	✓correct	−17
Nov 19	vs DET	75%	118–107	W 142–113	✓correct	+18
Nov 17	vs BOS	45%	106–111	L 105–108	✓correct	+2
Nov 15	vs MIL	65%	116–111	L 112–128	✗missed	−21
Nov 13	vs WAS	70%	118–110	W 111–107	✓correct	−4
Nov 11	at BOS	39%	111–114	L 94–117	✓correct	−20
Nov 8	at DAL	39%	113–116	W 127–116	✗missed	+14
Nov 5	at SAS	47%	116–115	W 123–116	✓correct	+6
Nov 2	at PHI	30%	106–114	L 99–114	✓correct	−7
Nov 1	vs MIL	61%	115–112	W 130–111	✓correct	+16
Oct 30	vs POR	72%	116–107	L 91–99	✗missed	−17
Oct 28	vs PHI	59%	109–107	L 107–114	✗missed	−9
Oct 27	at CHI	43%	111–112	L 103–104	✓correct	±0
Oct 25	vs MIN	61%	113–110	W 97–94	✓correct	±0

2022-23

9.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.0 to 10.7; 6th smallest of 30

+0.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.0 to 1.9

12.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

50%

winner picked

82 games involving TOR

41 / 43.7

actual / expected wins

gap −2.7

0.234

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	TOR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	vs MIL	47%	119–120	W 121–105	✗missed	+17
Apr 7	at BOS	37%	113–118	L 102–121	✓correct	−14
Apr 5	at BOS	53%	116–115	L 93–97	✗missed	−5
Apr 4	at CHA	83%	120–105	W 120–100	✓correct	+5
Apr 2	at CHA	80%	120–107	W 128–108	✓correct	+7
Mar 31	at PHI	32%	105–112	L 110–117	✓correct	±0
Mar 28	vs MIA	74%	116–106	W 106–92	✓correct	+4
Mar 26	vs WAS	76%	118–107	W 114–104	✓correct	−1
Mar 24	vs DET	86%	119–102	W 118–97	✓correct	+4
Mar 22	vs IND	70%	122–114	L 114–118	✗missed	−12
Mar 19	at MIL	40%	115–119	L 111–118	✓correct	−3
Mar 18	vs MIN	42%	110–113	W 122–107	✗missed	+18
Mar 16	vs OKC	42%	112–115	W 128–111	✗missed	+20
Mar 14	vs DEN	35%	110–116	W 125–110	✗missed	+21
Mar 10	at LAL	47%	114–115	L 112–122	✓correct	−9
Mar 8	at LAC	55%	117–115	L 100–108	✗missed	−10
Mar 6	at DEN	37%	110–115	L 113–118	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	at WAS	47%	113–114	W 116–109	✗missed	+8
Mar 2	at WAS	47%	113–114	L 108–119	✓correct	−10
Feb 28	vs CHI	42%	111–114	W 104–98	✗missed	+9
Feb 26	at CLE	32%	108–115	L 93–118	✓correct	−18
Feb 25	at DET	63%	116–111	W 95–91	✓correct	−1
Feb 23	vs NOP	58%	117–114	W 115–110	✓correct	+2
Feb 14	vs ORL	60%	116–112	W 123–113	✓correct	+6
Feb 12	vs DET	78%	121–109	W 119–118	✓correct	−11
Feb 10	vs UTA	72%	121–112	L 116–122	✗missed	−15
Feb 8	vs SAS	87%	123–105	W 112–98	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	at MEM	53%	118–117	W 106–103	✓correct	+2
Feb 3	at HOU	58%	119–116	W 117–111	✓correct	+3
Feb 1	at UTA	40%	115–119	L 128–131	✓correct	+1
Jan 30	at PHX	47%	117–118	L 106–114	✓correct	−7
Jan 28	at POR	47%	118–119	W 123–105	✗missed	+19
Jan 27	at GSW	37%	116–121	L 117–129	✓correct	−7
Jan 25	at SAC	42%	113–116	W 113–95	✗missed	+21
Jan 22	vs NYK	47%	112–113	W 125–116	✗missed	+10
Jan 21	vs BOS	47%	112–113	L 104–106	✓correct	−1
Jan 19	at MIN	55%	117–115	L 126–128	✗missed	−4
Jan 17	at MIL	55%	111–109	L 122–130	✗missed	−10
Jan 16	at NYK	40%	109–113	W 123–121	✗missed	+6
Jan 14	vs ATL	58%	116–113	L 103–114	✗missed	−14
Jan 12	vs CHA	76%	121–110	W 124–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 10	vs CHA	68%	116–109	W 132–120	✓correct	+5
Jan 8	vs POR	47%	112–113	W 117–105	✗missed	+13
Jan 6	vs NYK	47%	110–111	L 108–112	✓correct	−3
Jan 4	vs MIL	53%	116–115	L 101–104	✗missed	−4
Jan 2	at IND	53%	115–114	L 114–122	✗missed	−9
Dec 30	vs PHX	47%	112–113	W 113–104	✗missed	+10
Dec 29	vs MEM	32%	108–115	L 106–119	✓correct	−6
Dec 27	vs LAC	53%	113–112	L 113–124	✗missed	−12
Dec 23	at CLE	30%	105–113	W 118–107	✗missed	+19
Dec 21	at NYK	35%	106–112	W 113–106	✗missed	+13
Dec 19	at PHI	37%	110–115	L 101–104	✓correct	+2
Dec 18	vs GSW	53%	114–113	L 110–126	✗missed	−17
Dec 16	vs BKN	40%	108–112	L 116–119	✓correct	+1
Dec 14	vs SAC	58%	114–111	L 123–124	✗missed	−4
Dec 11	at ORL	60%	110–106	L 99–111	✗missed	−16
Dec 9	at ORL	68%	115–108	L 109–113	✗missed	−11
Dec 7	vs LAL	65%	118–112	W 126–113	✓correct	+7
Dec 5	vs BOS	35%	109–115	L 110–116	✓correct	±0
Dec 3	vs ORL	80%	117–104	W 121–108	✓correct	±0
Dec 2	at BKN	53%	112–111	L 105–114	✗missed	−10
Nov 30	at NOP	47%	111–112	L 108–126	✓correct	−17
Nov 28	vs CLE	47%	106–107	W 100–88	✗missed	+13
Nov 26	vs DAL	47%	106–107	W 105–100	✗missed	+6
Nov 23	vs BKN	58%	111–108	L 98–112	✗missed	−17
Nov 19	at ATL	42%	113–116	L 122–124	✓correct	+1
Nov 16	vs MIA	47%	110–111	W 112–104	✗missed	+9
Nov 14	at DET	63%	115–110	W 115–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 12	at IND	60%	117–113	L 104–118	✗missed	−18
Nov 11	at OKC	70%	113–105	L 113–132	✗missed	−27
Nov 9	vs HOU	74%	116–106	W 116–109	✓correct	−3
Nov 7	at CHI	65%	111–105	L 97–111	✗missed	−20
Nov 6	vs CHI	63%	111–106	W 113–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 4	at DAL	37%	104–109	L 110–111	✓correct	+4
Nov 2	at SAS	68%	115–108	W 143–100	✓correct	+36
Oct 31	vs ATL	53%	107–106	W 139–109	✓correct	+29
Oct 28	vs PHI	53%	107–106	L 90–112	✗missed	−23
Oct 26	vs PHI	45%	105–107	W 119–109	✗missed	+12
Oct 24	at MIA	42%	105–108	W 98–90	✗missed	+11
Oct 22	at MIA	45%	105–107	L 109–112	✓correct	−1
Oct 21	at BKN	53%	110–109	L 105–109	✗missed	−5
Oct 19	vs CLE	47%	108–109	W 108–105	✗missed	+4

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.3 to 11.9; 16th smallest of 30

−0.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.7 to 0.8

14.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

65%

winner picked

344 games involving TOR

150 / 165.3

actual / expected wins

gap −15.3

0.213

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 344 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	TOR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 6	at MIL	70%	122–115	W 121–107	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	at DEN	55%	115–112	L 109–128	✗missed	−22
Nov 2	at LAC	59%	116–113	W 125–118	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	at LAL	47%	113–114	L 125–131	✓correct	−5
Oct 30	vs ORL	74%	115–106	L 114–121	✗missed	−16
Oct 28	vs ORL	67%	113–107	W 129–99	✓correct	+24
Oct 25	at MIN	41%	114–117	L 94–117	✓correct	−20
Oct 23	at WAS	64%	123–118	W 112–102	✓correct	+5
Oct 21	vs CHI	72%	123–115	W 135–92	✓correct	+35
May 3 PO	at CLE	39%	104–108	L 102–114	✓correct	−8
May 1 PO	vs CLE	65%	117–111	W 112–110	✓correct	−4
Apr 29 PO	at CLE	39%	107–111	L 120–125	✓correct	−1
Apr 26 PO	vs CLE	58%	113–110	W 93–89	✓correct	+1
Apr 23 PO	vs CLE	53%	111–110	W 126–104	✓correct	+21
Apr 20 PO	at CLE	39%	111–115	L 105–115	✓correct	−6
Apr 18 PO	at CLE	39%	110–114	L 113–126	✓correct	−9
Apr 12	vs BKN	89%	120–102	W 136–101	✓correct	+17
Apr 10	at NYK	44%	113–115	L 95–112	✓correct	−15
Apr 9	vs MIA	69%	122–115	W 128–114	✓correct	+7
Apr 7	vs MIA	59%	121–118	W 121–95	✓correct	+23
Apr 5	at BOS	31%	112–119	L 101–115	✓correct	−7
Apr 3	at MEM	78%	124–113	W 128–96	✓correct	+21
Apr 1	vs SAC	78%	119–108	L 115–123	✗missed	−19
Mar 31	at DET	36%	113–118	L 116–127	✓correct	−6
Mar 29	vs ORL	53%	117–116	W 139–87	✓correct	+51
Mar 27	vs NOP	67%	119–113	W 119–106	✓correct	+7
Mar 25	at LAC	44%	116–118	L 94–119	✓correct	−23
Mar 23	at UTA	66%	114–108	W 143–127	✓correct	+10
Mar 22	at PHX	56%	115–113	L 98–120	✗missed	−24
Mar 20	at DEN	47%	118–119	L 115–121	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	at CHI	58%	118–115	W 139–109	✓correct	+27
Mar 15	vs DET	36%	109–114	W 119–108	✗missed	+16
Mar 13	vs PHX	53%	109–108	W 122–115	✓correct	+6
Mar 11	at NOP	58%	118–115	L 111–122	✗missed	−14
Mar 10	at HOU	41%	110–113	L 99–113	✓correct	−11
Mar 8	vs DAL	78%	121–110	W 122–92	✓correct	+19
Mar 5	at MIN	36%	113–118	L 107–115	✓correct	−3
Mar 3	vs NYK	47%	112–113	L 95–111	✓correct	−15
Feb 28	at WAS	78%	122–111	W 134–125	✓correct	−2
Feb 25	vs SAS	39%	114–118	L 107–110	✓correct	+1
Feb 24	vs OKC	53%	114–113	L 107–116	✗missed	−10
Feb 22	at MIL	53%	114–113	W 122–94	✓correct	+27
Feb 19	at CHI	66%	119–113	W 110–101	✓correct	+3
Feb 11	vs DET	53%	116–115	L 95–113	✗missed	−19
Feb 8	vs IND	78%	122–111	W 122–104	✓correct	+7
Feb 5	vs CHI	76%	122–112	W 123–107	✓correct	+6
Feb 4	vs MIN	53%	116–115	L 126–128	✗missed	−3
Feb 1	vs UTA	78%	123–112	W 107–100	✓correct	−4
Jan 30	at ORL	58%	114–111	L 120–130	✗missed	−13
Jan 28	vs NYK	56%	110–108	L 92–119	✗missed	−29
Jan 25	at OKC	22%	109–120	W 103–101	✗missed	+13
Jan 23	at POR	47%	112–113	W 110–98	✗missed	+13
Jan 21	at SAC	58%	114–111	W 122–109	✓correct	+10
Jan 20	at GSW	39%	111–115	W 145–127	✗missed	+22
Jan 18	at LAL	56%	114–112	L 93–110	✗missed	−19
Jan 16	vs LAC	59%	110–107	L 117–121	✗missed	−7
Jan 14	at IND	61%	119–115	W 115–101	✓correct	+10
Jan 12	vs PHI	53%	113–112	L 102–115	✗missed	−14
Jan 11	vs PHI	53%	111–110	W 116–115	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	at BOS	34%	109–115	L 117–125	✓correct	−2
Jan 7	at CHA	53%	115–114	W 97–96	✓correct	±0
Jan 5	vs ATL	61%	119–115	W 118–100	✓correct	+14
Jan 3	vs ATL	69%	119–112	W 134–117	✓correct	+10
Dec 31	vs DEN	53%	113–112	L 103–106	✗missed	−4
Dec 29	vs ORL	59%	113–110	W 107–106	✓correct	−2
Dec 28	vs GSW	39%	110–114	W 141–127	✗missed	+18
Dec 26	at WAS	66%	116–110	L 117–138	✗missed	−27
Dec 23	at MIA	41%	114–117	W 112–91	✗missed	+24
Dec 21	at BKN	47%	109–110	L 81–96	✓correct	−14
Dec 20	vs BOS	56%	111–109	L 96–112	✗missed	−18
Dec 18	at MIL	56%	112–110	W 111–105	✓correct	+4
Dec 15	at MIA	29%	110–118	W 106–96	✗missed	+18
Dec 9	vs NYK	34%	107–113	L 101–117	✓correct	−10
Dec 7	vs BOS	44%	109–111	L 113–121	✓correct	−6
Dec 5	vs CHA	76%	116–106	L 86–111	✗missed	−35
Dec 4	vs LAL	56%	115–113	L 120–123	✗missed	−5
Dec 2	vs POR	69%	120–113	W 121–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 30	at NYK	34%	114–120	L 94–116	✓correct	−16
Nov 29	at CHA	74%	119–110	L 111–118	✗missed	−16
Nov 26	vs IND	83%	124–110	W 97–95	✓correct	−12
Nov 24	vs CLE	64%	120–115	W 110–99	✓correct	+6
Nov 23	vs BKN	80%	119–107	W 119–109	✓correct	−2
Nov 21	vs WAS	91%	126–106	W 140–110	✓correct	+10
Nov 19	at PHI	64%	117–112	W 121–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	vs CHA	83%	122–108	W 110–108	✓correct	−12
Nov 15	at IND	69%	120–113	W 129–111	✓correct	+11
Nov 13	at CLE	31%	115–122	W 126–113	✗missed	+20
Nov 11	at BKN	64%	121–116	W 119–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 8	at PHI	56%	120–118	L 120–130	✗missed	−12
Nov 7	at ATL	39%	116–120	W 109–97	✗missed	+16
Nov 4	vs MIL	47%	118–119	W 128–100	✗missed	+29
Nov 2	vs MEM	44%	118–120	W 117–104	✗missed	+15
Oct 31	at CLE	24%	114–124	W 112–101	✗missed	+21
Oct 29	vs HOU	47%	111–112	L 121–139	✓correct	−17
Oct 27	at SAS	34%	114–120	L 103–121	✓correct	−12
Oct 26	at DAL	58%	121–118	L 129–139	✗missed	−13
Oct 24	vs MIL	53%	118–117	L 116–122	✗missed	−7
Oct 22	at ATL	39%	117–121	W 138–118	✗missed	+24
Apr 13	at SAS	38%	111–115	L 118–125	✓correct	−3
Apr 11	at DAL	33%	111–117	L 102–124	✓correct	−16
Apr 9	vs CHA	64%	116–111	W 126–96	✓correct	+25
Apr 6	at BKN	64%	114–108	W 120–109	✓correct	+5
Apr 4	vs DET	36%	113–119	L 105–117	✓correct	−6
Apr 3	vs POR	39%	112–117	L 103–112	✓correct	−4
Apr 1	at CHI	33%	115–121	L 118–137	✓correct	−13
Mar 30	at PHI	54%	114–112	W 127–109	✓correct	+16
Mar 28	vs CHA	64%	115–110	W 108–97	✓correct	+6
Mar 26	at BKN	54%	109–107	W 116–86	✓correct	+28
Mar 24	at WAS	51%	116–115	W 112–104	✓correct	+7
Mar 23	vs SAS	54%	115–114	L 89–123	✗missed	−35
Mar 20	at GSW	23%	109–120	L 114–117	✓correct	+8
Mar 17	at PHX	27%	109–118	L 89–129	✓correct	−31
Mar 16	at POR	31%	111–118	L 102–105	✓correct	+4
Mar 14	at UTA	64%	117–111	W 126–118	✓correct	+2
Mar 12	vs PHI	57%	111–109	W 118–105	✓correct	+11
Mar 10	vs WAS	57%	113–111	W 119–104	✓correct	+13
Mar 8	vs WAS	54%	112–111	L 117–118	✗missed	−2
Mar 7	vs UTA	54%	114–113	W 118–109	✓correct	+8
Mar 4	at ORL	38%	105–109	W 114–113	✗missed	+5
Mar 2	at ORL	36%	106–111	W 104–102	✗missed	+7
Feb 28	at CHI	43%	114–116	L 115–125	✓correct	−8
Feb 26	at IND	27%	112–121	L 91–111	✓correct	−11
Feb 25	vs BOS	23%	104–116	L 101–111	✓correct	+2
Feb 23	vs PHX	39%	111–116	W 127–109	✗missed	+23
Feb 21	vs MIA	54%	110–109	L 111–120	✗missed	−10
Feb 12	vs CLE	27%	110–120	L 108–131	✓correct	−13
Feb 11	at PHI	29%	110–118	W 106–103	✗missed	+11
Feb 9	at HOU	29%	106–114	L 87–94	✓correct	+1
Feb 7	at OKC	15%	109–125	L 109–121	✓correct	+4
Feb 5	vs MEM	32%	113–121	L 107–138	✓correct	−23
Feb 4	vs NYK	44%	110–113	L 115–121	✓correct	−3
Feb 2	vs LAC	44%	107–110	W 115–108	✗missed	+10
Jan 31	vs CHI	67%	116–110	L 106–122	✗missed	−22
Jan 29	at WAS	59%	117–113	W 106–82	✓correct	+20
Jan 27	vs NOP	59%	115–112	W 113–104	✓correct	+6
Jan 25	at ATL	31%	111–118	W 117–94	✗missed	+30
Jan 23	at ATL	36%	113–118	W 122–119	✗missed	+8
Jan 21	vs ORL	46%	107–109	W 109–93	✗missed	+18
Jan 17	at MIL	19%	108–121	L 112–130	✓correct	−5
Jan 15	vs BOS	18%	103–118	W 110–97	✗missed	+28
Jan 13	vs GSW	46%	113–115	W 104–101	✗missed	+5
Jan 11	at DET	23%	109–120	L 114–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 9	at CLE	9%	108–129	L 126–132	✓correct	+15
Jan 8	at NYK	11%	105–124	L 98–112	✓correct	+5
Jan 6	vs MIL	39%	112–117	L 104–128	✓correct	−19
Jan 3	vs ORL	34%	108–115	L 97–106	✓correct	−2
Jan 1	vs BKN	44%	111–114	W 130–113	✗missed	+20
Dec 31	at BOS	15%	110–126	L 71–125	✓correct	−38
Dec 29	vs ATL	46%	117–119	L 107–136	✓correct	−27
Dec 26	at MEM	23%	112–123	L 126–155	✓correct	−18
Dec 23	at NYK	19%	107–120	L 125–139	✓correct	−1
Dec 22	vs HOU	32%	107–115	L 110–114	✓correct	+4
Dec 19	vs BKN	54%	114–113	L 94–101	✗missed	−8
Dec 16	vs CHI	41%	117–121	L 121–122	✓correct	+3
Dec 12	at MIA	27%	108–117	L 104–114	✓correct	−1
Dec 9	vs NYK	41%	114–118	L 108–113	✓correct	−1
Dec 7	vs DAL	46%	115–117	L 118–125	✓correct	−5
Dec 5	vs OKC	36%	108–114	L 92–129	✓correct	−31
Dec 3	vs IND	54%	117–116	W 122–111	✓correct	+10
Dec 1	vs MIA	39%	106–111	W 119–116	✗missed	+8
Nov 29	at MIA	27%	103–112	L 111–121	✓correct	−1
Nov 27	at NOP	38%	105–109	W 119–93	✗missed	+30
Nov 25	at DET	33%	105–111	L 100–102	✓correct	+4
Nov 24	at CLE	12%	106–124	L 108–122	✓correct	+4
Nov 21	vs MIN	39%	108–113	W 110–105	✗missed	+10
Nov 18	vs IND	44%	111–114	W 130–119	✗missed	+14
Nov 16	at BOS	9%	106–127	L 123–126	✓correct	+18
Nov 15	vs DET	46%	108–110	L 95–99	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	at MIL	27%	111–120	L 85–99	✓correct	−5
Nov 10	at LAL	21%	113–125	L 103–123	✓correct	−8
Nov 9	at LAC	25%	108–118	L 103–105	✓correct	+8
Nov 6	at SAC	19%	112–125	L 107–122	✓correct	−2
Nov 4	at DEN	27%	107–116	L 119–121	✓correct	+7
Nov 2	vs SAC	32%	111–119	W 131–128	✗missed	+11
Nov 1	vs LAL	34%	113–120	L 125–131	✓correct	+1
Oct 30	at CHA	31%	112–119	L 133–138	✓correct	+2
Oct 28	vs DEN	36%	106–112	L 125–127	✓correct	+4
Oct 26	at MIN	18%	104–118	L 101–112	✓correct	+3
Oct 25	vs PHI	34%	110–117	W 115–107	✗missed	+15
Oct 23	vs CLE	41%	109–113	L 106–136	✓correct	−26
Apr 14	at MIA	24%	103–115	L 103–118	✓correct	−3
Apr 12	at MIA	22%	102–115	L 103–125	✓correct	−9
Apr 10	at BKN	28%	109–118	L 102–106	✓correct	+5
Apr 9	vs IND	26%	112–127	L 123–140	✓correct	−2
Apr 7	vs WAS	72%	121–112	W 130–122	✓correct	−1
Apr 5	at MIL	27%	105–115	W 117–111	✗missed	+16
Apr 3	at MIN	22%	104–117	L 85–133	✓correct	−35
Apr 2	vs LAL	33%	112–123	L 111–128	✓correct	−6
Mar 31	vs PHI	53%	110–111	L 120–135	✓correct	−14
Mar 27	vs NYK	26%	100–115	L 101–145	✓correct	−29
Mar 25	vs BKN	39%	108–116	L 88–96	✓correct	±0
Mar 23	at WAS	37%	115–119	L 109–112	✓correct	+1
Mar 22	vs OKC	29%	109–122	L 103–123	✓correct	−7
Mar 20	vs SAC	25%	106–122	L 89–123	✓correct	−18
Mar 17	at ORL	25%	106–117	L 96–111	✓correct	−4
Mar 15	vs ORL	29%	107–120	L 103–113	✓correct	+3
Mar 13	at DET	35%	115–120	L 104–113	✓correct	−4
Mar 11	at DEN	16%	109–127	L 119–125	✓correct	+12
Mar 9	at POR	43%	115–116	L 118–128	✓correct	−9
Mar 7	at PHX	34%	111–117	L 113–120	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	vs NOP	39%	112–120	L 98–139	✓correct	−33
Mar 3	vs CHA	67%	115–109	W 111–106	✓correct	−1
Mar 1	vs GSW	51%	119–121	L 105–120	✓correct	−13
Feb 28	vs DAL	51%	118–120	L 125–136	✓correct	−9
Feb 26	at IND	35%	116–121	W 130–122	✗missed	+13
Feb 23	at ATL	41%	122–124	W 123–121	✗missed	+4
Feb 22	vs BKN	47%	115–119	W 121–93	✗missed	+32
Feb 14	vs IND	45%	116–121	L 125–127	✓correct	+3
Feb 12	vs SAS	68%	119–112	L 99–122	✗missed	−30
Feb 10	vs CLE	47%	115–119	L 95–119	✓correct	−20
Feb 9	vs HOU	49%	116–119	W 107–104	✗missed	+6
Feb 7	at CHA	49%	116–114	W 123–117	✓correct	+4
Feb 5	at NOP	28%	112–121	L 100–138	✓correct	−29
Feb 4	at OKC	32%	110–117	L 127–135	✓correct	−1
Feb 2	at HOU	41%	116–118	L 106–135	✓correct	−27
Jan 30	at CHI	34%	112–118	W 118–107	✗missed	+17
Jan 28	at ATL	47%	117–116	L 125–126	✗missed	−2
Jan 26	vs LAC	51%	115–117	L 107–127	✓correct	−18
Jan 22	vs MEM	75%	125–114	L 100–108	✗missed	−19
Jan 20	at NYK	32%	110–117	L 100–126	✓correct	−19
Jan 18	vs CHI	53%	117–118	L 110–116	✓correct	−5
Jan 17	vs MIA	53%	116–117	W 121–97	✗missed	+25
Jan 15	vs BOS	49%	120–123	L 96–105	✓correct	−6
Jan 12	at UTA	43%	116–117	L 113–145	✓correct	−31
Jan 10	at LAC	34%	113–119	L 120–126	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	at LAL	47%	117–116	L 131–132	✗missed	−2
Jan 7	at GSW	43%	117–118	W 133–118	✗missed	+16
Jan 5	at SAC	39%	115–118	L 130–135	✓correct	−2
Jan 3	at MEM	51%	116–113	W 116–111	✓correct	+2
Jan 1	vs CLE	51%	114–116	W 124–121	✗missed	+5
Dec 30	at DET	51%	119–116	L 127–129	✗missed	−5
Dec 29	at BOS	39%	113–116	L 118–120	✓correct	+1
Dec 27	at WAS	53%	120–116	W 132–102	✓correct	+26
Dec 23	vs UTA	70%	120–112	L 119–126	✗missed	−15
Dec 22	at PHI	34%	113–119	L 111–121	✓correct	−4
Dec 20	vs DEN	47%	110–114	L 104–113	✓correct	−5
Dec 18	vs CHA	75%	118–107	W 114–99	✓correct	+4
Dec 15	vs ATL	61%	121–118	L 104–125	✗missed	−24
Dec 13	vs ATL	57%	119–118	W 135–128	✓correct	+6
Dec 11	at NYK	32%	109–116	L 130–136	✓correct	+1
Dec 8	at CHA	57%	118–112	L 116–119	✗missed	−9
Dec 6	vs MIA	59%	116–114	L 103–112	✗missed	−11
Dec 1	vs NYK	51%	112–114	L 106–119	✓correct	−11
Nov 29	vs PHX	51%	110–112	W 112–105	✗missed	+9
Nov 28	at BKN	43%	115–116	L 103–115	✓correct	−11
Nov 26	at CLE	41%	116–118	L 102–105	✓correct	−1
Nov 24	vs CHI	63%	115–111	W 121–108	✓correct	+9
Nov 22	at IND	51%	123–120	W 132–131	✓correct	−2
Nov 21	at ORL	41%	112–114	L 107–126	✓correct	−17
Nov 19	vs DET	75%	118–107	W 142–113	✓correct	+18
Nov 17	vs BOS	45%	106–111	L 105–108	✓correct	+2
Nov 15	vs MIL	65%	116–111	L 112–128	✗missed	−21
Nov 13	vs WAS	70%	118–110	W 111–107	✓correct	−4
Nov 11	at BOS	39%	111–114	L 94–117	✓correct	−20
Nov 8	at DAL	39%	113–116	W 127–116	✗missed	+14
Nov 5	at SAS	47%	116–115	W 123–116	✓correct	+6
Nov 2	at PHI	30%	106–114	L 99–114	✓correct	−7
Nov 1	vs MIL	61%	115–112	W 130–111	✓correct	+16
Oct 30	vs POR	72%	116–107	L 91–99	✗missed	−17
Oct 28	vs PHI	59%	109–107	L 107–114	✗missed	−9
Oct 27	at CHI	43%	111–112	L 103–104	✓correct	±0
Oct 25	vs MIN	61%	113–110	W 97–94	✓correct	±0
Apr 9	vs MIL	47%	119–120	W 121–105	✗missed	+17
Apr 7	at BOS	37%	113–118	L 102–121	✓correct	−14
Apr 5	at BOS	53%	116–115	L 93–97	✗missed	−5
Apr 4	at CHA	83%	120–105	W 120–100	✓correct	+5
Apr 2	at CHA	80%	120–107	W 128–108	✓correct	+7
Mar 31	at PHI	32%	105–112	L 110–117	✓correct	±0
Mar 28	vs MIA	74%	116–106	W 106–92	✓correct	+4
Mar 26	vs WAS	76%	118–107	W 114–104	✓correct	−1
Mar 24	vs DET	86%	119–102	W 118–97	✓correct	+4
Mar 22	vs IND	70%	122–114	L 114–118	✗missed	−12
Mar 19	at MIL	40%	115–119	L 111–118	✓correct	−3
Mar 18	vs MIN	42%	110–113	W 122–107	✗missed	+18
Mar 16	vs OKC	42%	112–115	W 128–111	✗missed	+20
Mar 14	vs DEN	35%	110–116	W 125–110	✗missed	+21
Mar 10	at LAL	47%	114–115	L 112–122	✓correct	−9
Mar 8	at LAC	55%	117–115	L 100–108	✗missed	−10
Mar 6	at DEN	37%	110–115	L 113–118	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	at WAS	47%	113–114	W 116–109	✗missed	+8
Mar 2	at WAS	47%	113–114	L 108–119	✓correct	−10
Feb 28	vs CHI	42%	111–114	W 104–98	✗missed	+9
Feb 26	at CLE	32%	108–115	L 93–118	✓correct	−18
Feb 25	at DET	63%	116–111	W 95–91	✓correct	−1
Feb 23	vs NOP	58%	117–114	W 115–110	✓correct	+2
Feb 14	vs ORL	60%	116–112	W 123–113	✓correct	+6
Feb 12	vs DET	78%	121–109	W 119–118	✓correct	−11
Feb 10	vs UTA	72%	121–112	L 116–122	✗missed	−15
Feb 8	vs SAS	87%	123–105	W 112–98	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	at MEM	53%	118–117	W 106–103	✓correct	+2
Feb 3	at HOU	58%	119–116	W 117–111	✓correct	+3
Feb 1	at UTA	40%	115–119	L 128–131	✓correct	+1
Jan 30	at PHX	47%	117–118	L 106–114	✓correct	−7
Jan 28	at POR	47%	118–119	W 123–105	✗missed	+19
Jan 27	at GSW	37%	116–121	L 117–129	✓correct	−7
Jan 25	at SAC	42%	113–116	W 113–95	✗missed	+21
Jan 22	vs NYK	47%	112–113	W 125–116	✗missed	+10
Jan 21	vs BOS	47%	112–113	L 104–106	✓correct	−1
Jan 19	at MIN	55%	117–115	L 126–128	✗missed	−4
Jan 17	at MIL	55%	111–109	L 122–130	✗missed	−10
Jan 16	at NYK	40%	109–113	W 123–121	✗missed	+6
Jan 14	vs ATL	58%	116–113	L 103–114	✗missed	−14
Jan 12	vs CHA	76%	121–110	W 124–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 10	vs CHA	68%	116–109	W 132–120	✓correct	+5
Jan 8	vs POR	47%	112–113	W 117–105	✗missed	+13
Jan 6	vs NYK	47%	110–111	L 108–112	✓correct	−3
Jan 4	vs MIL	53%	116–115	L 101–104	✗missed	−4
Jan 2	at IND	53%	115–114	L 114–122	✗missed	−9
Dec 30	vs PHX	47%	112–113	W 113–104	✗missed	+10
Dec 29	vs MEM	32%	108–115	L 106–119	✓correct	−6
Dec 27	vs LAC	53%	113–112	L 113–124	✗missed	−12
Dec 23	at CLE	30%	105–113	W 118–107	✗missed	+19
Dec 21	at NYK	35%	106–112	W 113–106	✗missed	+13
Dec 19	at PHI	37%	110–115	L 101–104	✓correct	+2
Dec 18	vs GSW	53%	114–113	L 110–126	✗missed	−17
Dec 16	vs BKN	40%	108–112	L 116–119	✓correct	+1
Dec 14	vs SAC	58%	114–111	L 123–124	✗missed	−4
Dec 11	at ORL	60%	110–106	L 99–111	✗missed	−16
Dec 9	at ORL	68%	115–108	L 109–113	✗missed	−11
Dec 7	vs LAL	65%	118–112	W 126–113	✓correct	+7
Dec 5	vs BOS	35%	109–115	L 110–116	✓correct	±0
Dec 3	vs ORL	80%	117–104	W 121–108	✓correct	±0
Dec 2	at BKN	53%	112–111	L 105–114	✗missed	−10
Nov 30	at NOP	47%	111–112	L 108–126	✓correct	−17
Nov 28	vs CLE	47%	106–107	W 100–88	✗missed	+13
Nov 26	vs DAL	47%	106–107	W 105–100	✗missed	+6
Nov 23	vs BKN	58%	111–108	L 98–112	✗missed	−17
Nov 19	at ATL	42%	113–116	L 122–124	✓correct	+1
Nov 16	vs MIA	47%	110–111	W 112–104	✗missed	+9
Nov 14	at DET	63%	115–110	W 115–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 12	at IND	60%	117–113	L 104–118	✗missed	−18
Nov 11	at OKC	70%	113–105	L 113–132	✗missed	−27
Nov 9	vs HOU	74%	116–106	W 116–109	✓correct	−3
Nov 7	at CHI	65%	111–105	L 97–111	✗missed	−20
Nov 6	vs CHI	63%	111–106	W 113–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 4	at DAL	37%	104–109	L 110–111	✓correct	+4
Nov 2	at SAS	68%	115–108	W 143–100	✓correct	+36
Oct 31	vs ATL	53%	107–106	W 139–109	✓correct	+29
Oct 28	vs PHI	53%	107–106	L 90–112	✗missed	−23
Oct 26	vs PHI	45%	105–107	W 119–109	✗missed	+12
Oct 24	at MIA	42%	105–108	W 98–90	✗missed	+11
Oct 22	at MIA	45%	105–107	L 109–112	✓correct	−1
Oct 21	at BKN	53%	110–109	L 105–109	✗missed	−5
Oct 19	vs CLE	47%	108–109	W 108–105	✗missed	+4

Surprise games

All TOR surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected TOR wins

18%TOR beat BOS110–97Jan 15, 2024-25 · forecast BOS118–103 · missed margin by 28
22%TOR beat OKC103–101Jan 25, 2025-26 · forecast OKC120–109 · missed margin by 13
24%TOR beat CLE112–101Oct 31, 2025-26 · forecast CLE124–114 · missed margin by 21
27%TOR beat MIL117–111Apr 5, 2023-24 · forecast MIL115–105 · missed margin by 16
29%TOR beat MIA106–96Dec 15, 2025-26 · forecast MIA118–110 · missed margin by 18

Most unexpected TOR losses

22%SAC beat TOR123–115Apr 1, 2025-26 · forecast TOR119–108 · missed margin by 19
24%CHA beat TOR111–86Dec 5, 2025-26 · forecast TOR116–106 · missed margin by 35
25%MEM beat TOR108–100Jan 22, 2023-24 · forecast TOR125–114 · missed margin by 19
26%ORL beat TOR121–114Oct 30, 2026-27 · forecast TOR115–106 · missed margin by 16
27%CHA beat TOR118–111Nov 29, 2025-26 · forecast TOR119–110 · missed margin by 16

Largest margin misses

53%TOR beat ORL139–87Mar 29, 2025-26 · forecast TOR117–116 · missed margin by 51
85%BOS beat TOR125–71Dec 31, 2024-25 · forecast BOS126–110 · missed margin by 38
68%TOR beat SAS143–100Nov 2, 2022-23 · forecast TOR115–108 · missed margin by 36
72%TOR beat CHI135–92Oct 21, 2026-27 · forecast TOR123–115 · missed margin by 35
24%CHA beat TOR111–86Dec 5, 2025-26 · forecast TOR116–106 · missed margin by 35

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected TOR wins

Most unexpected TOR losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions