The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 6

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

Friday, November 6, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

OKC 6–2@MEM 6–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: OKC 62 percent, MEM 38 percent. OKC Thunder 62% proj. 116 · final 128 MEM Grizzlies · home 38% proj. 112 · final 97
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 116 128 +12
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) 112 97 −15

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputOKCMEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16671405
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −192
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.9+0.6
Games played this season 88
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.3111.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.7110.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 34.918.3
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1667MEM1405

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1667

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
  2. This season's 8 games: −14.7
  • W@SAS116–104+15.8
  • WDEN96–84+5.4
  • WLAC108–101+2.8
  • WPHX125–114+3.2
  • L@DAL96–120−36.4
  • L@HOU98–119−17.0
  • W@CLE117–112+6.9
  • WCLE124–116+4.6

MEM1405

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
  2. This season's 8 games: +75.5
  • WUTA123–103+12.8
  • W@GSW111–108+9.2
  • W@SAC123–112+14.2
  • W@UTA110–105+7.8
  • W@POR124–103+34.1
  • WSAC136–105+12.2
  • LNOP134–135−5.0
  • LIND103–107−9.8
Season scoring marginOKC+6.9MEM+0.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+6.9

Scores 110.0, allows 108.8 over 8 games: +1.3 a game.

40% this season (+1.3) + 60% last season (+10.7) = +6.9

MEM+0.6

Scores 120.5, allows 109.8 over 8 games: +10.8 a game.

40% this season (+10.8) + 60% last season (−6.1) = +0.6

Offensive rating, last 10OKC109.3MEM111.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

OKC109.3scored, −2.8 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.5%53.3%−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%13.3%+3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%27.1%+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1990.226−0.8
Everything else+0.5

MEM111.8scored, −0.3 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%53.3%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%13.3%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%27.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1810.226−1.3
Everything else+0.9
Defensive rating, last 10OKC112.7MEM110.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

OKC112.7allowed, +0.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%53.3%+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%13.3%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.4%27.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.226+1.2
Everything else−1.3

MEM110.4allowed, −1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%53.3%+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%13.3%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.5%27.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2130.226+0.4
Everything else+2.3
Pace, last 10average 100.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 97.9 and MEM 103.6 → average 100.8 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingOKC34.9MEM18.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC34.9pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Williams13.731.63
Chet Holmgren12.029.93
Cason Wallace6.316.33
Jaylin Williams2.918.57

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 13 rotation players.

MEM18.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Isaiah Stewart11.918.37
Scotty Pippen Jr.6.416.05

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestOKC2 daysMEM2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC2days

Last played Nov 4 against CLE.

MEM2days

Last played Nov 4 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4CLE124–11641-8915-3627-3598120.4113.7102.5
Nov 2@CLE117–11242-9812-3121-23815120.6116.796.5
Oct 31@HOU98–11937-8510-3214-151310104.3126.694.0
Oct 28@DAL96–12036-875-3219-23131298.0122.498.0
Oct 26PHX125–11444-8612-3225-291612127.6117.597.5
Oct 25LAC108–10142-948-2416-171615105.999.0102.0
Oct 22DEN96–8436-9511-4313-141216102.189.494.0
Oct 20@SAS116–10443-9514-3116-201110113.7102.0102.0
May 30SAS103–11137-8312-3517-221310109.6120.793.0
May 28@SAS91–11835-9410-4011-12121291.0119.299.5

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4IND103–10741-9112-449-151913100.0104.9102.5
Nov 2NOP134–13547-9118-4022-271611124.1123.998.3
Oct 31SAC136–10547-8519-3823-27176128.3100.0105.5
Oct 29@POR124–10347-10218-4212-121015121.6101.0102.0
Oct 26@UTA110–10537-8516-3720-22126110.0104.0100.5
Oct 25@SAC123–11242-9615-4124-271219121.8113.1100.0
Oct 23@GSW111–10840-8615-3916-222518112.1108.099.5
Oct 21UTA123–10344-9313-3422-281315118.399.0104.0
Apr 12@HOU101–13239-9513-4910-1013398.1128.2103.0
Apr 10@UTA101–14741-10911-528-919483.5121.5121.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
62%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
OKC was the forecast favorite
27 pts
margin miss
forecast −4, actual −31 for MEM
82nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
12th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.47 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statOKCMEM
Final score12897
Field goals51–92 · 55.4%29–88 · 33.0%
Three-pointers16–35 · 45.7%10–45 · 22.2%
Free throws10–16 · 62.5%29–31 · 93.5%
Rebounds4543
Assists2518
Turnovers1218
Steals105
Blocks60

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)−4−31−27
Total points228225−3
OKC points116128+12
MEM points11297−15

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Out Cason Wallace · Left Shoulder Surgery
  • Out Chet Holmgren
  • Out Jalen Williams · Left Ankle Surgery
  • Out Jaylin Williams · Lowback Spasms
  • Out Nikola Topić · Low Back Surgery
  • Out Thomas Sorber · Right Knee Surgery

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Out Isaiah Stewart
  • Out Scotty Pippen Jr.

Recent form before this game

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 vs CLE W 124–116
Nov 2 at CLE W 117–112
Oct 31 at HOU L 98–119
Oct 28 at DAL L 96–120
Oct 26 vs PHX W 125–114

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 vs IND L 103–107
Nov 2 vs NOP L 134–135
Oct 31 vs SAC W 136–105
Oct 29 at POR W 124–103
Oct 26 at UTA W 110–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 9 2025-26 OKC at MEM OKC 117 – 116 MEM
Dec 22 2025-26 MEM at OKC MEM 103 – 119 OKC
Nov 9 2025-26 OKC at MEM OKC 114 – 100 MEM
Apr 26 2024-25 OKC at MEM OKC 117 – 115 MEM
Apr 24 2024-25 OKC at MEM OKC 114 – 108 MEM