Western Conference · 2026-27

Denver Nuggets DEN

5–3

2026-27 record

1572

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

114.8

Offensive rating

last 10 games

113.8

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

98.2

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded DEN game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 249 of 388 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of DEN's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. DEN ranks 10 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 8:30 PM ET

DEN Denver Nuggets 5–3 –

@HOU Houston Rockets 7–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 8:00 PM ET

DEN Denver Nuggets 5–3 –

@MEM Memphis Grizzlies 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 7:00 PM ET

DEN Denver Nuggets 5–3 –

@NOP New Orleans Pelicans 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked DEN games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 8 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

11.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 6.9 to 16.9

−1.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -9.8 to 7.0

15.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

63%

winner picked

8 games involving DEN

5 / 4.7

actual / expected wins

gap +0.3

0.237

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 8 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DEN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at IND	70%	119–112	W 114–102	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	vs TOR	45%	112–115	W 128–109	✗missed	+22
Nov 2	vs POR	62%	116–112	L 110–118	✗missed	−12
Oct 30	at PHX	53%	114–113	W 127–120	✓correct	+6
Oct 28	at NOP	59%	121–118	W 104–91	✓correct	+10
Oct 26	vs GSW	76%	119–109	L 114–134	✗missed	−30
Oct 24	vs NOP	76%	123–113	W 141–135	✓correct	−4
Oct 22	at OKC	31%	110–117	L 84–96	✓correct	−5

2025-26

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.1 to 12.4; 9th smallest of 30

+0.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.7 to 3.3

14.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

61%

winner picked

88 games involving DEN

56 / 52.0

actual / expected wins

gap +4.0

0.228

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 88 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DEN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 30 PO	at MIN	68%	119–112	L 98–110	✗missed	−19
Apr 27 PO	vs MIN	60%	118–114	W 125–113	✓correct	+8
Apr 25 PO	at MIN	58%	119–116	L 96–112	✗missed	−19
Apr 23 PO	at MIN	47%	111–112	L 96–113	✓correct	−16
Apr 20 PO	vs MIN	69%	117–110	L 114–119	✗missed	−12
Apr 18 PO	vs MIN	69%	116–109	W 116–105	✓correct	+4
Apr 12	at SAS	11%	109–127	W 128–118	✗missed	+28
Apr 10	vs OKC	78%	123–112	W 127–107	✓correct	+9
Apr 8	vs MEM	93%	132–110	W 136–119	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs POR	61%	122–118	W 137–132	✓correct	+1
Apr 4	vs SAS	47%	118–119	W 136–134	✗missed	+3
Apr 1	at UTA	85%	129–114	W 130–117	✓correct	−2
Mar 29	vs GSW	64%	124–119	W 116–93	✓correct	+18
Mar 27	vs UTA	91%	130–110	W 135–129	✓correct	−14
Mar 25	vs DAL	80%	126–114	W 142–135	✓correct	−5
Mar 24	at PHX	47%	116–117	W 125–123	✗missed	+3
Mar 22	vs POR	59%	121–118	W 128–112	✓correct	+13
Mar 20	vs TOR	53%	119–118	W 121–115	✓correct	+5
Mar 18	at MEM	71%	126–118	L 118–125	✗missed	−15
Mar 17	vs PHI	76%	124–114	W 124–96	✓correct	+18
Mar 14	at LAL	39%	114–118	L 125–127	✓correct	+2
Mar 12	at SAS	36%	115–120	W 136–131	✗missed	+10
Mar 11	vs HOU	53%	117–116	W 129–93	✓correct	+35
Mar 9	at OKC	22%	111–122	L 126–129	✓correct	+8
Mar 6	vs NYK	56%	117–115	L 103–142	✗missed	−41
Mar 5	vs LAL	64%	119–114	W 120–113	✓correct	+2
Mar 2	at UTA	85%	124–109	W 128–125	✓correct	−12
Mar 1	vs MIN	64%	120–115	L 108–117	✗missed	−14
Feb 27	at OKC	29%	112–120	L 121–127	✓correct	+2
Feb 25	vs BOS	44%	107–109	W 103–84	✗missed	+21
Feb 22	at GSW	53%	114–113	L 117–128	✗missed	−12
Feb 20	at POR	53%	118–117	W 157–103	✓correct	+53
Feb 19	at LAC	47%	110–111	L 114–115	✓correct	±0
Feb 11	vs MEM	64%	117–112	W 122–116	✓correct	+1
Feb 9	vs CLE	39%	111–115	L 117–119	✓correct	+2
Feb 7	at CHI	53%	113–112	W 136–120	✓correct	+15
Feb 4	at NYK	36%	106–111	L 127–134	✓correct	−2
Feb 3	at DET	39%	107–111	L 121–124	✓correct	+1
Feb 1	vs OKC	47%	111–112	L 111–121	✓correct	−9
Jan 30	vs LAC	47%	109–110	W 122–109	✗missed	+14
Jan 29	vs BKN	86%	114–98	W 107–103	✓correct	−12
Jan 27	vs DET	42%	108–111	L 107–109	✓correct	+1
Jan 23	at MIL	58%	112–109	W 102–100	✓correct	−1
Jan 22	at WAS	64%	115–110	W 107–97	✓correct	+5
Jan 20	vs LAL	59%	114–111	L 107–115	✗missed	−11
Jan 18	vs CHA	59%	117–114	L 87–110	✗missed	−26
Jan 17	vs WAS	82%	119–106	W 121–115	✓correct	−7
Jan 14	at DAL	47%	111–112	W 118–109	✗missed	+10
Jan 13	at NOP	53%	115–114	W 122–116	✓correct	+5
Jan 11	vs MIL	59%	115–112	W 108–104	✓correct	+1
Jan 9	vs ATL	67%	125–119	L 87–110	✗missed	−29
Jan 7	at BOS	31%	112–119	W 114–110	✗missed	+11
Jan 5	at PHI	41%	115–118	W 125–124	✗missed	+4
Jan 4	at BKN	53%	112–111	L 115–127	✗missed	−13
Jan 2	at CLE	47%	120–121	L 108–113	✓correct	−4
Dec 31	at TOR	47%	112–113	W 106–103	✗missed	+4
Dec 29	at MIA	53%	118–117	L 123–147	✗missed	−25
Dec 27	at ORL	64%	118–113	L 126–127	✗missed	−6
Dec 25	vs MIN	56%	120–118	W 142–138	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	at DAL	66%	121–115	L 130–131	✗missed	−7
Dec 22	vs UTA	83%	128–114	W 135–112	✓correct	+9
Dec 20	vs HOU	53%	117–116	L 101–115	✗missed	−15
Dec 18	vs ORL	74%	125–116	W 126–115	✓correct	+2
Dec 15	vs HOU	47%	115–116	W 128–125	✗missed	+4
Dec 11	at SAC	80%	123–111	W 136–105	✓correct	+19
Dec 7	at CHA	76%	119–109	W 115–106	✓correct	−1
Dec 5	at ATL	53%	120–119	W 134–133	✓correct	±0
Dec 3	at IND	61%	120–116	W 135–120	✓correct	+11
Dec 1	vs DAL	83%	126–112	L 121–131	✗missed	−24
Nov 29	at PHX	44%	116–118	W 130–112	✗missed	+20
Nov 28	vs SAS	71%	124–116	L 136–139	✗missed	−11
Nov 24	at MEM	53%	117–116	W 125–115	✓correct	+9
Nov 22	vs SAC	87%	128–111	L 123–128	✗missed	−22
Nov 21	at HOU	44%	117–119	W 112–109	✗missed	+5
Nov 19	at NOP	83%	126–112	W 125–118	✓correct	−7
Nov 17	vs CHI	78%	125–114	L 127–130	✗missed	−14
Nov 15	at MIN	47%	118–119	W 123–112	✗missed	+12
Nov 12	at LAC	66%	116–110	W 130–116	✓correct	+8
Nov 11	at SAC	71%	121–113	W 122–108	✓correct	+6
Nov 8	vs IND	80%	121–109	W 117–100	✓correct	+5
Nov 7	vs GSW	67%	119–113	W 129–104	✓correct	+19
Nov 5	vs MIA	69%	120–113	W 122–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 3	vs SAC	61%	116–112	W 130–124	✓correct	+2
Oct 31	at POR	41%	113–116	L 107–109	✓correct	+1
Oct 29	vs NOP	85%	123–108	W 122–88	✓correct	+19
Oct 27	at MIN	39%	114–118	W 127–114	✗missed	+17
Oct 25	vs PHX	71%	118–110	W 133–111	✓correct	+14
Oct 23	at GSW	41%	109–112	L 131–137	✓correct	−3

2024-25

11.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.6 to 13.5; 27th smallest of 30

+0.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.3 to 2.6

14.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

59%

winner picked

96 games involving DEN

57 / 53.4

actual / expected wins

gap +3.6

0.234

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 96 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DEN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 18 PO	at OKC	21%	106–118	L 93–125	✓correct	−20
May 15 PO	vs OKC	39%	104–109	W 119–107	✗missed	+17
May 13 PO	at OKC	19%	105–118	L 105–112	✓correct	+6
May 11 PO	vs OKC	41%	105–109	L 87–92	✓correct	−1
May 9 PO	vs OKC	49%	108–109	W 113–104	✗missed	+10
May 7 PO	at OKC	25%	107–117	L 106–149	✓correct	−33
May 5 PO	at OKC	25%	107–117	W 121–119	✗missed	+12
May 3 PO	vs LAC	62%	106–102	W 120–101	✓correct	+15
May 1 PO	at LAC	36%	104–109	L 105–111	✓correct	−1
Apr 29 PO	vs LAC	39%	100–105	W 131–115	✗missed	+21
Apr 26 PO	at LAC	38%	103–107	W 101–99	✗missed	+6
Apr 24 PO	at LAC	38%	104–108	L 83–117	✓correct	−30
Apr 21 PO	vs LAC	57%	107–105	L 102–105	✗missed	−5
Apr 19 PO	vs LAC	57%	109–107	W 112–110	✓correct	±0
Apr 13	at HOU	41%	115–118	W 126–111	✗missed	+18
Apr 11	vs MEM	69%	122–115	W 117–109	✓correct	+1
Apr 9	at SAC	51%	115–114	W 124–116	✓correct	+7
Apr 6	vs IND	62%	118–114	L 120–125	✗missed	−9
Apr 4	at GSW	41%	113–116	L 104–118	✓correct	−11
Apr 2	vs SAS	79%	124–112	L 106–113	✗missed	−19
Apr 1	vs MIN	57%	118–116	L 139–140	✗missed	−3
Mar 28	vs UTA	88%	131–113	W 129–93	✓correct	+18
Mar 26	vs MIL	62%	117–113	W 127–117	✓correct	+6
Mar 24	vs CHI	49%	120–121	L 119–129	✓correct	−9
Mar 23	at HOU	33%	110–116	W 116–111	✗missed	+11
Mar 21	at POR	51%	113–112	L 109–128	✗missed	−20
Mar 19	at LAL	54%	114–112	L 108–120	✗missed	−14
Mar 17	at GSW	33%	113–119	W 114–105	✗missed	+15
Mar 15	vs WAS	81%	124–111	L 123–126	✗missed	−16
Mar 14	vs LAL	64%	116–111	W 131–126	✓correct	±0
Mar 12	vs MIN	54%	118–117	L 95–115	✗missed	−21
Mar 10	at OKC	19%	113–126	W 140–127	✗missed	+26
Mar 9	at OKC	27%	116–125	L 103–127	✓correct	−15
Mar 7	vs PHX	75%	124–114	W 149–141	✓correct	−2
Mar 5	vs SAC	67%	118–112	W 116–110	✓correct	±0
Mar 2	at BOS	43%	112–114	L 103–110	✓correct	−5
Feb 28	at DET	36%	117–122	W 134–119	✗missed	+20
Feb 27	at MIL	51%	114–113	L 112–121	✗missed	−10
Feb 24	at IND	51%	122–121	W 125–116	✓correct	+8
Feb 22	vs LAL	69%	120–113	L 100–123	✗missed	−30
Feb 20	vs CHA	90%	124–104	W 129–115	✓correct	−6
Feb 12	vs POR	75%	118–108	W 132–121	✓correct	+1
Feb 10	vs POR	62%	114–110	W 146–117	✓correct	+25
Feb 8	at PHX	54%	117–115	W 122–105	✓correct	+15
Feb 6	vs ORL	71%	118–110	W 112–90	✓correct	+14
Feb 5	vs NOP	85%	128–112	W 144–119	✓correct	+9
Feb 3	vs NOP	79%	125–113	W 125–113	✓correct	±0
Feb 1	at CHA	73%	119–109	W 107–104	✓correct	−7
Jan 31	at PHI	59%	116–112	W 137–134	✓correct	−1
Jan 29	at NYK	41%	112–115	L 112–122	✓correct	−7
Jan 27	at CHI	69%	121–113	L 121–129	✗missed	−16
Jan 25	at MIN	59%	114–110	L 104–133	✗missed	−33
Jan 23	vs SAC	67%	118–112	W 132–123	✓correct	+3
Jan 21	vs PHI	77%	117–106	W 144–109	✓correct	+24
Jan 19	at ORL	61%	110–105	W 113–100	✓correct	+8
Jan 17	at MIA	51%	112–111	W 133–113	✓correct	+19
Jan 15	vs HOU	54%	112–111	L 108–128	✗missed	−21
Jan 14	at DAL	43%	112–114	W 118–99	✗missed	+21
Jan 12	at DAL	54%	114–112	W 112–101	✓correct	+9
Jan 10	vs BKN	77%	118–107	W 124–105	✓correct	+8
Jan 8	vs LAC	64%	119–114	W 126–103	✓correct	+18
Jan 7	vs BOS	39%	108–113	L 106–118	✓correct	−7
Jan 4	at SAS	43%	116–118	W 122–111	✗missed	+13
Jan 3	vs SAS	67%	120–114	L 110–113	✗missed	−9
Jan 1	vs ATL	64%	122–117	W 139–120	✓correct	+14
Dec 30	at UTA	71%	125–116	W 132–121	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	vs DET	67%	124–118	W 134–121	✓correct	+7
Dec 27	vs CLE	46%	113–115	L 135–149	✓correct	−12
Dec 25	at PHX	61%	121–116	L 100–110	✗missed	−15
Dec 23	vs PHX	71%	124–116	W 117–90	✓correct	+19
Dec 22	at NOP	75%	126–115	W 132–129	✓correct	−8
Dec 19	at POR	71%	125–116	L 124–126	✗missed	−11
Dec 16	at SAC	46%	118–119	W 130–129	✗missed	+2
Dec 13	vs LAC	67%	120–114	W 120–98	✓correct	+16
Dec 8	at ATL	46%	117–118	W 141–111	✗missed	+31
Dec 7	at WAS	75%	125–114	L 113–122	✗missed	−20
Dec 5	at CLE	25%	113–123	L 114–126	✓correct	−2
Dec 3	vs GSW	71%	120–112	W 119–115	✓correct	−4
Dec 1	at LAC	43%	113–115	L 122–126	✓correct	−2
Nov 27	at UTA	71%	123–114	W 122–103	✓correct	+10
Nov 25	vs NYK	64%	119–114	L 118–145	✗missed	−32
Nov 23	at LAL	46%	118–119	W 127–102	✗missed	+26
Nov 22	vs DAL	67%	119–113	L 120–123	✗missed	−9
Nov 19	at MEM	38%	114–118	W 122–110	✗missed	+16
Nov 17	at MEM	38%	116–120	L 90–105	✓correct	−11
Nov 15	at NOP	59%	114–110	L 94–101	✗missed	−11
Nov 10	vs DAL	67%	116–110	W 122–120	✓correct	−4
Nov 8	vs MIA	64%	111–106	W 135–122	✓correct	+8
Nov 6	vs OKC	34%	103–110	W 124–122	✗missed	+9
Nov 4	vs TOR	73%	116–107	W 121–119	✓correct	−7
Nov 2	vs UTA	81%	115–102	W 129–103	✓correct	+13
Nov 1	at MIN	43%	107–109	L 116–119	✓correct	−1
Oct 29	at BKN	51%	108–107	W 144–139	✓correct	+4
Oct 28	at TOR	64%	112–106	W 127–125	✓correct	−4
Oct 26	vs LAC	62%	109–105	L 104–109	✗missed	−9
Oct 24	vs OKC	62%	107–103	L 87–102	✗missed	−19

2023-24

10.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.7 to 11.8; 6th smallest of 30

+0.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.9 to 3.0

13.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

67%

winner picked

94 games involving DEN

64 / 53.9

actual / expected wins

gap +10.2

0.210

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 94 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DEN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 19 PO	vs MIN	61%	108–105	L 90–98	✗missed	−11
May 16 PO	at MIN	35%	105–110	L 70–115	✓correct	−40
May 14 PO	vs MIN	65%	109–104	W 112–97	✓correct	+10
May 12 PO	at MIN	41%	107–109	W 115–107	✗missed	+10
May 10 PO	at MIN	37%	106–110	W 117–90	✗missed	+31
May 6 PO	vs MIN	57%	109–108	L 80–106	✗missed	−27
May 4 PO	vs MIN	67%	113–107	L 99–106	✗missed	−13
Apr 29 PO	vs LAL	63%	114–110	W 108–106	✓correct	−2
Apr 27 PO	at LAL	41%	111–113	L 108–119	✓correct	−9
Apr 25 PO	at LAL	41%	111–113	W 112–105	✗missed	+9
Apr 22 PO	vs LAL	65%	116–111	W 101–99	✓correct	−3
Apr 20 PO	vs LAL	67%	116–110	W 114–103	✓correct	+5
Apr 14	at MEM	74%	120–105	W 126–111	✓correct	±0
Apr 12	at SAS	67%	118–107	L 120–121	✗missed	−12
Apr 10	vs MIN	57%	111–110	W 116–107	✓correct	+8
Apr 9	at UTA	75%	126–110	W 111–95	✓correct	±0
Apr 6	vs ATL	65%	114–109	W 142–110	✓correct	+27
Apr 4	at LAC	43%	109–110	L 100–102	✓correct	−1
Apr 2	vs SAS	81%	116–101	W 110–105	✓correct	−10
Mar 31	vs CLE	53%	107–108	W 130–101	✗missed	+30
Mar 29	vs MIN	59%	108–106	L 98–111	✗missed	−15
Mar 27	vs PHX	65%	113–108	L 97–104	✗missed	−12
Mar 25	vs MEM	75%	115–104	W 128–103	✓correct	+14
Mar 23	at POR	65%	117–107	W 114–111	✓correct	−7
Mar 21	vs NYK	53%	104–105	W 113–100	✗missed	+14
Mar 19	at MIN	41%	110–112	W 115–112	✗missed	+5
Mar 17	at DAL	51%	118–115	L 105–107	✗missed	−5
Mar 15	at SAS	59%	118–111	W 117–106	✓correct	+4
Mar 13	at MIA	47%	109–108	W 100–88	✓correct	+11
Mar 11	vs TOR	84%	127–109	W 125–119	✓correct	−12
Mar 9	vs UTA	72%	119–110	W 142–121	✓correct	+12
Mar 7	vs BOS	49%	107–110	W 115–109	✗missed	+9
Mar 5	vs PHX	72%	119–110	L 107–117	✗missed	−19
Mar 2	at LAL	47%	117–116	W 124–114	✓correct	+9
Feb 29	vs MIA	61%	109–106	W 103–97	✓correct	+3
Feb 28	vs SAC	67%	117–111	W 117–96	✓correct	+15
Feb 25	at GSW	37%	113–117	W 119–103	✗missed	+20
Feb 23	at POR	49%	113–111	W 127–112	✓correct	+13
Feb 22	vs WAS	76%	120–108	W 130–110	✓correct	+8
Feb 14	vs SAC	67%	116–110	L 98–102	✗missed	−10
Feb 12	at MIL	37%	109–113	L 95–112	✓correct	−13
Feb 9	at SAC	49%	116–114	L 106–135	✗missed	−31
Feb 8	at LAL	51%	116–113	W 114–106	✓correct	+5
Feb 4	vs POR	72%	112–103	W 112–103	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	vs POR	78%	116–103	W 120–108	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	at OKC	32%	105–112	L 100–105	✓correct	+2
Jan 29	vs MIL	67%	117–111	W 113–107	✓correct	±0
Jan 27	vs PHI	73%	119–109	W 111–105	✓correct	−4
Jan 25	at NYK	41%	108–110	L 84–122	✓correct	−36
Jan 23	at IND	47%	115–114	W 114–109	✓correct	+4
Jan 21	at WAS	63%	120–111	W 113–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 19	at BOS	43%	113–114	W 102–100	✗missed	+3
Jan 16	at PHI	43%	110–111	L 121–126	✓correct	−4
Jan 14	vs IND	65%	117–112	W 117–109	✓correct	+3
Jan 12	vs NOP	61%	112–109	W 125–113	✓correct	+9
Jan 10	at UTA	47%	115–114	L 111–124	✗missed	−14
Jan 7	vs DET	84%	126–108	W 131–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 5	vs ORL	67%	115–109	L 120–122	✗missed	−8
Jan 4	at GSW	49%	118–116	W 130–127	✓correct	+1
Jan 1	vs CHA	81%	119–104	W 111–93	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	vs OKC	59%	114–112	L 93–119	✗missed	−28
Dec 28	vs MEM	65%	116–111	W 142–105	✓correct	+32
Dec 25	vs GSW	63%	116–112	W 120–114	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	at CHA	63%	119–110	W 102–95	✓correct	−2
Dec 22	at BKN	49%	117–115	W 122–117	✓correct	+3
Dec 20	at TOR	53%	114–110	W 113–104	✓correct	+5
Dec 18	vs DAL	67%	117–111	W 130–104	✓correct	+20
Dec 16	vs OKC	65%	116–111	L 117–118	✗missed	−6
Dec 14	vs BKN	61%	115–112	W 124–101	✓correct	+20
Dec 12	at CHI	49%	114–112	W 114–106	✓correct	+6
Dec 11	at ATL	47%	119–118	W 129–122	✓correct	+6
Dec 8	vs HOU	65%	113–108	L 106–114	✗missed	−13
Dec 6	at LAC	37%	111–115	L 102–111	✓correct	−5
Dec 2	at SAC	43%	115–116	L 117–123	✓correct	−5
Dec 1	at PHX	49%	112–110	W 119–111	✓correct	+6
Nov 29	vs HOU	68%	113–106	W 134–124	✓correct	+3
Nov 27	at LAC	35%	108–113	W 113–104	✗missed	+14
Nov 26	vs SAS	79%	121–107	W 132–120	✓correct	−2
Nov 24	at HOU	49%	112–110	L 86–105	✗missed	−21
Nov 22	at ORL	47%	113–112	L 119–124	✗missed	−6
Nov 20	at DET	55%	116–111	W 107–103	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	at CLE	51%	112–109	L 109–121	✗missed	−15
Nov 17	at NOP	51%	114–111	L 110–115	✗missed	−8
Nov 14	vs LAC	59%	114–112	W 111–108	✓correct	+1
Nov 12	at HOU	47%	113–112	L 104–107	✗missed	−4
Nov 8	vs GSW	57%	113–112	W 108–105	✓correct	+2
Nov 6	vs NOP	67%	114–108	W 134–116	✓correct	+12
Nov 4	vs CHI	65%	112–107	W 123–101	✓correct	+17
Nov 3	vs DAL	65%	114–109	W 125–114	✓correct	+6
Nov 1	at MIN	39%	108–111	L 89–110	✓correct	−18
Oct 30	vs UTA	61%	116–113	W 110–102	✓correct	+5
Oct 29	at OKC	39%	111–114	W 128–95	✗missed	+36
Oct 27	at MEM	47%	111–110	W 108–104	✓correct	+3
Oct 24	vs LAL	68%	115–108	W 119–107	✓correct	+5

2022-23

10.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.1 to 11.9; 18th smallest of 30

+0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.4 to 2.8

13.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

69%

winner picked

102 games involving DEN

69 / 59.8

actual / expected wins

gap +9.2

0.224

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 102 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DEN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Jun 12 PO	vs MIA	72%	112–103	W 94–89	✓correct	−4
Jun 9 PO	at MIA	30%	101–109	W 108–95	✗missed	+21
Jun 7 PO	at MIA	37%	106–111	W 109–94	✗missed	+20
Jun 4 PO	vs MIA	76%	111–100	L 108–111	✗missed	−14
Jun 1 PO	vs MIA	70%	110–102	W 104–93	✓correct	+3
May 22 PO	at LAL	40%	107–111	W 113–111	✗missed	+6
May 20 PO	at LAL	37%	106–111	W 119–108	✗missed	+16
May 18 PO	vs LAL	80%	117–104	W 108–103	✓correct	−8
May 16 PO	vs LAL	80%	117–104	W 132–126	✓correct	−7
May 11 PO	at PHX	22%	99–111	W 125–100	✗missed	+37
May 9 PO	vs PHX	83%	116–101	W 118–102	✓correct	+1
May 7 PO	at PHX	35%	105–111	L 124–129	✓correct	+1
May 5 PO	at PHX	37%	104–109	L 114–121	✓correct	−2
May 1 PO	vs PHX	74%	113–103	W 97–87	✓correct	±0
Apr 29 PO	vs PHX	68%	113–106	W 125–107	✓correct	+11
Apr 25 PO	vs MIN	60%	108–104	W 112–109	✓correct	−1
Apr 23 PO	at MIN	63%	110–105	L 108–114	✗missed	−11
Apr 21 PO	at MIN	68%	109–102	W 120–111	✓correct	+2
Apr 19 PO	vs MIN	55%	110–108	W 122–113	✓correct	+7
Apr 16 PO	vs MIN	53%	110–109	W 109–80	✓correct	+28
Apr 9	vs SAC	35%	111–117	W 109–95	✗missed	+20
Apr 8	at UTA	87%	123–105	L 114–118	✗missed	−22
Apr 6	at PHX	30%	108–116	L 115–119	✓correct	+4
Apr 4	at HOU	65%	117–111	L 103–124	✗missed	−27
Apr 2	vs GSW	63%	117–112	W 112–110	✓correct	−3
Mar 31	at PHX	47%	114–115	L 93–100	✓correct	−6
Mar 30	vs NOP	68%	116–109	L 88–107	✗missed	−26
Mar 27	vs PHI	72%	111–102	W 116–111	✓correct	−4
Mar 25	vs MIL	58%	116–113	W 129–106	✓correct	+20
Mar 22	at WAS	65%	117–111	W 118–104	✓correct	+8
Mar 19	at BKN	58%	117–114	W 108–102	✓correct	+3
Mar 18	at NYK	35%	110–116	L 110–116	✓correct	±0
Mar 16	at DET	84%	122–106	W 119–100	✓correct	+3
Mar 14	at TOR	65%	116–110	L 110–125	✗missed	−21
Mar 12	vs BKN	60%	116–112	L 120–122	✗missed	−6
Mar 10	at SAS	76%	120–109	L 120–128	✗missed	−19
Mar 8	vs CHI	63%	112–107	L 96–117	✗missed	−26
Mar 6	vs TOR	63%	115–110	W 118–113	✓correct	±0
Mar 3	vs MEM	63%	116–111	W 113–97	✓correct	+11
Feb 28	at HOU	76%	123–112	W 133–112	✓correct	+10
Feb 26	vs LAC	63%	115–110	W 134–124	✓correct	+5
Feb 25	at MEM	42%	111–114	L 94–112	✓correct	−15
Feb 23	at CLE	30%	109–117	W 115–109	✗missed	+14
Feb 15	vs DAL	68%	117–110	W 118–109	✓correct	+2
Feb 13	at MIA	65%	113–107	W 112–108	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	at CHA	81%	125–111	W 119–105	✓correct	±0
Feb 9	at ORL	70%	120–112	L 104–115	✗missed	−19
Feb 7	vs MIN	65%	117–111	W 146–112	✓correct	+28
Feb 5	at MIN	40%	116–120	L 98–128	✓correct	−26
Feb 4	vs ATL	72%	120–111	W 128–108	✓correct	+11
Feb 2	vs GSW	70%	118–110	W 134–117	✓correct	+9
Jan 31	vs NOP	70%	116–108	W 122–113	✓correct	+1
Jan 28	at PHI	45%	113–115	L 119–126	✓correct	−5
Jan 25	at MIL	58%	114–111	L 99–107	✗missed	−11
Jan 24	at NOP	60%	116–112	W 99–98	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	vs OKC	68%	118–111	L 99–101	✗missed	−9
Jan 20	vs IND	63%	116–111	W 134–111	✓correct	+18
Jan 18	vs MIN	47%	112–113	W 122–118	✗missed	+5
Jan 17	vs POR	55%	113–111	W 122–113	✓correct	+7
Jan 15	vs ORL	68%	118–111	W 119–116	✓correct	−4
Jan 13	at LAC	47%	113–114	W 115–103	✗missed	+13
Jan 11	vs PHX	76%	118–107	W 126–97	✓correct	+18
Jan 9	vs LAL	76%	124–113	W 122–109	✓correct	+2
Jan 6	vs CLE	53%	111–110	W 121–108	✓correct	+12
Jan 5	vs LAC	58%	115–112	W 122–91	✓correct	+28
Jan 2	at MIN	58%	119–116	L 111–124	✗missed	−16
Jan 1	vs BOS	55%	115–113	W 123–111	✓correct	+10
Dec 30	vs MIA	55%	112–110	W 124–119	✓correct	+3
Dec 28	at SAC	63%	119–114	L 126–127	✗missed	−6
Dec 27	at SAC	55%	118–116	W 113–106	✓correct	+5
Dec 25	vs PHX	47%	113–114	W 128–125	✗missed	+4
Dec 23	vs POR	60%	117–113	W 120–107	✓correct	+9
Dec 20	vs MEM	53%	117–116	W 105–91	✓correct	+13
Dec 18	vs CHA	80%	121–108	W 119–115	✓correct	−9
Dec 16	at LAL	47%	119–120	L 108–126	✓correct	−17
Dec 14	vs WAS	76%	123–112	W 141–128	✓correct	+2
Dec 10	vs UTA	60%	117–113	W 115–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 8	at POR	60%	115–111	W 121–120	✓correct	−3
Dec 6	vs DAL	53%	109–108	L 115–116	✗missed	−2
Dec 4	at NOP	30%	106–114	L 106–121	✓correct	−7
Dec 2	at ATL	42%	109–112	L 109–117	✓correct	−5
Nov 30	vs HOU	78%	118–106	W 120–100	✓correct	+8
Nov 28	vs HOU	68%	115–108	W 129–113	✓correct	+9
Nov 25	at LAC	53%	109–108	W 114–104	✓correct	+9
Nov 23	at OKC	60%	118–114	W 131–126	✓correct	+1
Nov 22	vs DET	68%	116–109	L 108–110	✗missed	−9
Nov 20	at DAL	37%	105–110	W 98–97	✗missed	+6
Nov 18	at DAL	35%	104–110	L 99–127	✓correct	−22
Nov 16	vs NYK	70%	118–110	L 103–106	✗missed	−11
Nov 13	at CHI	58%	117–114	W 126–103	✓correct	+20
Nov 11	at BOS	40%	112–116	L 112–131	✓correct	−15
Nov 9	at IND	68%	119–112	W 122–119	✓correct	−4
Nov 7	at SAS	70%	117–109	W 115–109	✓correct	−2
Nov 5	vs SAS	55%	116–114	W 126–101	✓correct	+23
Nov 3	at OKC	68%	117–110	W 122–110	✓correct	+5
Oct 30	at LAL	68%	116–109	L 110–121	✗missed	−18
Oct 28	vs UTA	35%	108–114	W 117–101	✗missed	+22
Oct 26	vs LAL	58%	116–113	W 110–99	✓correct	+8
Oct 24	at POR	70%	115–107	L 110–135	✗missed	−33
Oct 22	vs OKC	72%	117–108	W 122–117	✓correct	−4
Oct 21	at GSW	37%	109–114	W 128–123	✗missed	+10
Oct 19	at UTA	35%	107–113	L 102–123	✓correct	−15

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 11.6; 12th smallest of 30

+0.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.7 to 1.7

14.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

64%

winner picked

388 games involving DEN

251 / 223.7

actual / expected wins

gap +27.3

0.224

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 388 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DEN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at IND	70%	119–112	W 114–102	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	vs TOR	45%	112–115	W 128–109	✗missed	+22
Nov 2	vs POR	62%	116–112	L 110–118	✗missed	−12
Oct 30	at PHX	53%	114–113	W 127–120	✓correct	+6
Oct 28	at NOP	59%	121–118	W 104–91	✓correct	+10
Oct 26	vs GSW	76%	119–109	L 114–134	✗missed	−30
Oct 24	vs NOP	76%	123–113	W 141–135	✓correct	−4
Oct 22	at OKC	31%	110–117	L 84–96	✓correct	−5
Apr 30 PO	at MIN	68%	119–112	L 98–110	✗missed	−19
Apr 27 PO	vs MIN	60%	118–114	W 125–113	✓correct	+8
Apr 25 PO	at MIN	58%	119–116	L 96–112	✗missed	−19
Apr 23 PO	at MIN	47%	111–112	L 96–113	✓correct	−16
Apr 20 PO	vs MIN	69%	117–110	L 114–119	✗missed	−12
Apr 18 PO	vs MIN	69%	116–109	W 116–105	✓correct	+4
Apr 12	at SAS	11%	109–127	W 128–118	✗missed	+28
Apr 10	vs OKC	78%	123–112	W 127–107	✓correct	+9
Apr 8	vs MEM	93%	132–110	W 136–119	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs POR	61%	122–118	W 137–132	✓correct	+1
Apr 4	vs SAS	47%	118–119	W 136–134	✗missed	+3
Apr 1	at UTA	85%	129–114	W 130–117	✓correct	−2
Mar 29	vs GSW	64%	124–119	W 116–93	✓correct	+18
Mar 27	vs UTA	91%	130–110	W 135–129	✓correct	−14
Mar 25	vs DAL	80%	126–114	W 142–135	✓correct	−5
Mar 24	at PHX	47%	116–117	W 125–123	✗missed	+3
Mar 22	vs POR	59%	121–118	W 128–112	✓correct	+13
Mar 20	vs TOR	53%	119–118	W 121–115	✓correct	+5
Mar 18	at MEM	71%	126–118	L 118–125	✗missed	−15
Mar 17	vs PHI	76%	124–114	W 124–96	✓correct	+18
Mar 14	at LAL	39%	114–118	L 125–127	✓correct	+2
Mar 12	at SAS	36%	115–120	W 136–131	✗missed	+10
Mar 11	vs HOU	53%	117–116	W 129–93	✓correct	+35
Mar 9	at OKC	22%	111–122	L 126–129	✓correct	+8
Mar 6	vs NYK	56%	117–115	L 103–142	✗missed	−41
Mar 5	vs LAL	64%	119–114	W 120–113	✓correct	+2
Mar 2	at UTA	85%	124–109	W 128–125	✓correct	−12
Mar 1	vs MIN	64%	120–115	L 108–117	✗missed	−14
Feb 27	at OKC	29%	112–120	L 121–127	✓correct	+2
Feb 25	vs BOS	44%	107–109	W 103–84	✗missed	+21
Feb 22	at GSW	53%	114–113	L 117–128	✗missed	−12
Feb 20	at POR	53%	118–117	W 157–103	✓correct	+53
Feb 19	at LAC	47%	110–111	L 114–115	✓correct	±0
Feb 11	vs MEM	64%	117–112	W 122–116	✓correct	+1
Feb 9	vs CLE	39%	111–115	L 117–119	✓correct	+2
Feb 7	at CHI	53%	113–112	W 136–120	✓correct	+15
Feb 4	at NYK	36%	106–111	L 127–134	✓correct	−2
Feb 3	at DET	39%	107–111	L 121–124	✓correct	+1
Feb 1	vs OKC	47%	111–112	L 111–121	✓correct	−9
Jan 30	vs LAC	47%	109–110	W 122–109	✗missed	+14
Jan 29	vs BKN	86%	114–98	W 107–103	✓correct	−12
Jan 27	vs DET	42%	108–111	L 107–109	✓correct	+1
Jan 23	at MIL	58%	112–109	W 102–100	✓correct	−1
Jan 22	at WAS	64%	115–110	W 107–97	✓correct	+5
Jan 20	vs LAL	59%	114–111	L 107–115	✗missed	−11
Jan 18	vs CHA	59%	117–114	L 87–110	✗missed	−26
Jan 17	vs WAS	82%	119–106	W 121–115	✓correct	−7
Jan 14	at DAL	47%	111–112	W 118–109	✗missed	+10
Jan 13	at NOP	53%	115–114	W 122–116	✓correct	+5
Jan 11	vs MIL	59%	115–112	W 108–104	✓correct	+1
Jan 9	vs ATL	67%	125–119	L 87–110	✗missed	−29
Jan 7	at BOS	31%	112–119	W 114–110	✗missed	+11
Jan 5	at PHI	41%	115–118	W 125–124	✗missed	+4
Jan 4	at BKN	53%	112–111	L 115–127	✗missed	−13
Jan 2	at CLE	47%	120–121	L 108–113	✓correct	−4
Dec 31	at TOR	47%	112–113	W 106–103	✗missed	+4
Dec 29	at MIA	53%	118–117	L 123–147	✗missed	−25
Dec 27	at ORL	64%	118–113	L 126–127	✗missed	−6
Dec 25	vs MIN	56%	120–118	W 142–138	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	at DAL	66%	121–115	L 130–131	✗missed	−7
Dec 22	vs UTA	83%	128–114	W 135–112	✓correct	+9
Dec 20	vs HOU	53%	117–116	L 101–115	✗missed	−15
Dec 18	vs ORL	74%	125–116	W 126–115	✓correct	+2
Dec 15	vs HOU	47%	115–116	W 128–125	✗missed	+4
Dec 11	at SAC	80%	123–111	W 136–105	✓correct	+19
Dec 7	at CHA	76%	119–109	W 115–106	✓correct	−1
Dec 5	at ATL	53%	120–119	W 134–133	✓correct	±0
Dec 3	at IND	61%	120–116	W 135–120	✓correct	+11
Dec 1	vs DAL	83%	126–112	L 121–131	✗missed	−24
Nov 29	at PHX	44%	116–118	W 130–112	✗missed	+20
Nov 28	vs SAS	71%	124–116	L 136–139	✗missed	−11
Nov 24	at MEM	53%	117–116	W 125–115	✓correct	+9
Nov 22	vs SAC	87%	128–111	L 123–128	✗missed	−22
Nov 21	at HOU	44%	117–119	W 112–109	✗missed	+5
Nov 19	at NOP	83%	126–112	W 125–118	✓correct	−7
Nov 17	vs CHI	78%	125–114	L 127–130	✗missed	−14
Nov 15	at MIN	47%	118–119	W 123–112	✗missed	+12
Nov 12	at LAC	66%	116–110	W 130–116	✓correct	+8
Nov 11	at SAC	71%	121–113	W 122–108	✓correct	+6
Nov 8	vs IND	80%	121–109	W 117–100	✓correct	+5
Nov 7	vs GSW	67%	119–113	W 129–104	✓correct	+19
Nov 5	vs MIA	69%	120–113	W 122–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 3	vs SAC	61%	116–112	W 130–124	✓correct	+2
Oct 31	at POR	41%	113–116	L 107–109	✓correct	+1
Oct 29	vs NOP	85%	123–108	W 122–88	✓correct	+19
Oct 27	at MIN	39%	114–118	W 127–114	✗missed	+17
Oct 25	vs PHX	71%	118–110	W 133–111	✓correct	+14
Oct 23	at GSW	41%	109–112	L 131–137	✓correct	−3
May 18 PO	at OKC	21%	106–118	L 93–125	✓correct	−20
May 15 PO	vs OKC	39%	104–109	W 119–107	✗missed	+17
May 13 PO	at OKC	19%	105–118	L 105–112	✓correct	+6
May 11 PO	vs OKC	41%	105–109	L 87–92	✓correct	−1
May 9 PO	vs OKC	49%	108–109	W 113–104	✗missed	+10
May 7 PO	at OKC	25%	107–117	L 106–149	✓correct	−33
May 5 PO	at OKC	25%	107–117	W 121–119	✗missed	+12
May 3 PO	vs LAC	62%	106–102	W 120–101	✓correct	+15
May 1 PO	at LAC	36%	104–109	L 105–111	✓correct	−1
Apr 29 PO	vs LAC	39%	100–105	W 131–115	✗missed	+21
Apr 26 PO	at LAC	38%	103–107	W 101–99	✗missed	+6
Apr 24 PO	at LAC	38%	104–108	L 83–117	✓correct	−30
Apr 21 PO	vs LAC	57%	107–105	L 102–105	✗missed	−5
Apr 19 PO	vs LAC	57%	109–107	W 112–110	✓correct	±0
Apr 13	at HOU	41%	115–118	W 126–111	✗missed	+18
Apr 11	vs MEM	69%	122–115	W 117–109	✓correct	+1
Apr 9	at SAC	51%	115–114	W 124–116	✓correct	+7
Apr 6	vs IND	62%	118–114	L 120–125	✗missed	−9
Apr 4	at GSW	41%	113–116	L 104–118	✓correct	−11
Apr 2	vs SAS	79%	124–112	L 106–113	✗missed	−19
Apr 1	vs MIN	57%	118–116	L 139–140	✗missed	−3
Mar 28	vs UTA	88%	131–113	W 129–93	✓correct	+18
Mar 26	vs MIL	62%	117–113	W 127–117	✓correct	+6
Mar 24	vs CHI	49%	120–121	L 119–129	✓correct	−9
Mar 23	at HOU	33%	110–116	W 116–111	✗missed	+11
Mar 21	at POR	51%	113–112	L 109–128	✗missed	−20
Mar 19	at LAL	54%	114–112	L 108–120	✗missed	−14
Mar 17	at GSW	33%	113–119	W 114–105	✗missed	+15
Mar 15	vs WAS	81%	124–111	L 123–126	✗missed	−16
Mar 14	vs LAL	64%	116–111	W 131–126	✓correct	±0
Mar 12	vs MIN	54%	118–117	L 95–115	✗missed	−21
Mar 10	at OKC	19%	113–126	W 140–127	✗missed	+26
Mar 9	at OKC	27%	116–125	L 103–127	✓correct	−15
Mar 7	vs PHX	75%	124–114	W 149–141	✓correct	−2
Mar 5	vs SAC	67%	118–112	W 116–110	✓correct	±0
Mar 2	at BOS	43%	112–114	L 103–110	✓correct	−5
Feb 28	at DET	36%	117–122	W 134–119	✗missed	+20
Feb 27	at MIL	51%	114–113	L 112–121	✗missed	−10
Feb 24	at IND	51%	122–121	W 125–116	✓correct	+8
Feb 22	vs LAL	69%	120–113	L 100–123	✗missed	−30
Feb 20	vs CHA	90%	124–104	W 129–115	✓correct	−6
Feb 12	vs POR	75%	118–108	W 132–121	✓correct	+1
Feb 10	vs POR	62%	114–110	W 146–117	✓correct	+25
Feb 8	at PHX	54%	117–115	W 122–105	✓correct	+15
Feb 6	vs ORL	71%	118–110	W 112–90	✓correct	+14
Feb 5	vs NOP	85%	128–112	W 144–119	✓correct	+9
Feb 3	vs NOP	79%	125–113	W 125–113	✓correct	±0
Feb 1	at CHA	73%	119–109	W 107–104	✓correct	−7
Jan 31	at PHI	59%	116–112	W 137–134	✓correct	−1
Jan 29	at NYK	41%	112–115	L 112–122	✓correct	−7
Jan 27	at CHI	69%	121–113	L 121–129	✗missed	−16
Jan 25	at MIN	59%	114–110	L 104–133	✗missed	−33
Jan 23	vs SAC	67%	118–112	W 132–123	✓correct	+3
Jan 21	vs PHI	77%	117–106	W 144–109	✓correct	+24
Jan 19	at ORL	61%	110–105	W 113–100	✓correct	+8
Jan 17	at MIA	51%	112–111	W 133–113	✓correct	+19
Jan 15	vs HOU	54%	112–111	L 108–128	✗missed	−21
Jan 14	at DAL	43%	112–114	W 118–99	✗missed	+21
Jan 12	at DAL	54%	114–112	W 112–101	✓correct	+9
Jan 10	vs BKN	77%	118–107	W 124–105	✓correct	+8
Jan 8	vs LAC	64%	119–114	W 126–103	✓correct	+18
Jan 7	vs BOS	39%	108–113	L 106–118	✓correct	−7
Jan 4	at SAS	43%	116–118	W 122–111	✗missed	+13
Jan 3	vs SAS	67%	120–114	L 110–113	✗missed	−9
Jan 1	vs ATL	64%	122–117	W 139–120	✓correct	+14
Dec 30	at UTA	71%	125–116	W 132–121	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	vs DET	67%	124–118	W 134–121	✓correct	+7
Dec 27	vs CLE	46%	113–115	L 135–149	✓correct	−12
Dec 25	at PHX	61%	121–116	L 100–110	✗missed	−15
Dec 23	vs PHX	71%	124–116	W 117–90	✓correct	+19
Dec 22	at NOP	75%	126–115	W 132–129	✓correct	−8
Dec 19	at POR	71%	125–116	L 124–126	✗missed	−11
Dec 16	at SAC	46%	118–119	W 130–129	✗missed	+2
Dec 13	vs LAC	67%	120–114	W 120–98	✓correct	+16
Dec 8	at ATL	46%	117–118	W 141–111	✗missed	+31
Dec 7	at WAS	75%	125–114	L 113–122	✗missed	−20
Dec 5	at CLE	25%	113–123	L 114–126	✓correct	−2
Dec 3	vs GSW	71%	120–112	W 119–115	✓correct	−4
Dec 1	at LAC	43%	113–115	L 122–126	✓correct	−2
Nov 27	at UTA	71%	123–114	W 122–103	✓correct	+10
Nov 25	vs NYK	64%	119–114	L 118–145	✗missed	−32
Nov 23	at LAL	46%	118–119	W 127–102	✗missed	+26
Nov 22	vs DAL	67%	119–113	L 120–123	✗missed	−9
Nov 19	at MEM	38%	114–118	W 122–110	✗missed	+16
Nov 17	at MEM	38%	116–120	L 90–105	✓correct	−11
Nov 15	at NOP	59%	114–110	L 94–101	✗missed	−11
Nov 10	vs DAL	67%	116–110	W 122–120	✓correct	−4
Nov 8	vs MIA	64%	111–106	W 135–122	✓correct	+8
Nov 6	vs OKC	34%	103–110	W 124–122	✗missed	+9
Nov 4	vs TOR	73%	116–107	W 121–119	✓correct	−7
Nov 2	vs UTA	81%	115–102	W 129–103	✓correct	+13
Nov 1	at MIN	43%	107–109	L 116–119	✓correct	−1
Oct 29	at BKN	51%	108–107	W 144–139	✓correct	+4
Oct 28	at TOR	64%	112–106	W 127–125	✓correct	−4
Oct 26	vs LAC	62%	109–105	L 104–109	✗missed	−9
Oct 24	vs OKC	62%	107–103	L 87–102	✗missed	−19
May 19 PO	vs MIN	61%	108–105	L 90–98	✗missed	−11
May 16 PO	at MIN	35%	105–110	L 70–115	✓correct	−40
May 14 PO	vs MIN	65%	109–104	W 112–97	✓correct	+10
May 12 PO	at MIN	41%	107–109	W 115–107	✗missed	+10
May 10 PO	at MIN	37%	106–110	W 117–90	✗missed	+31
May 6 PO	vs MIN	57%	109–108	L 80–106	✗missed	−27
May 4 PO	vs MIN	67%	113–107	L 99–106	✗missed	−13
Apr 29 PO	vs LAL	63%	114–110	W 108–106	✓correct	−2
Apr 27 PO	at LAL	41%	111–113	L 108–119	✓correct	−9
Apr 25 PO	at LAL	41%	111–113	W 112–105	✗missed	+9
Apr 22 PO	vs LAL	65%	116–111	W 101–99	✓correct	−3
Apr 20 PO	vs LAL	67%	116–110	W 114–103	✓correct	+5
Apr 14	at MEM	74%	120–105	W 126–111	✓correct	±0
Apr 12	at SAS	67%	118–107	L 120–121	✗missed	−12
Apr 10	vs MIN	57%	111–110	W 116–107	✓correct	+8
Apr 9	at UTA	75%	126–110	W 111–95	✓correct	±0
Apr 6	vs ATL	65%	114–109	W 142–110	✓correct	+27
Apr 4	at LAC	43%	109–110	L 100–102	✓correct	−1
Apr 2	vs SAS	81%	116–101	W 110–105	✓correct	−10
Mar 31	vs CLE	53%	107–108	W 130–101	✗missed	+30
Mar 29	vs MIN	59%	108–106	L 98–111	✗missed	−15
Mar 27	vs PHX	65%	113–108	L 97–104	✗missed	−12
Mar 25	vs MEM	75%	115–104	W 128–103	✓correct	+14
Mar 23	at POR	65%	117–107	W 114–111	✓correct	−7
Mar 21	vs NYK	53%	104–105	W 113–100	✗missed	+14
Mar 19	at MIN	41%	110–112	W 115–112	✗missed	+5
Mar 17	at DAL	51%	118–115	L 105–107	✗missed	−5
Mar 15	at SAS	59%	118–111	W 117–106	✓correct	+4
Mar 13	at MIA	47%	109–108	W 100–88	✓correct	+11
Mar 11	vs TOR	84%	127–109	W 125–119	✓correct	−12
Mar 9	vs UTA	72%	119–110	W 142–121	✓correct	+12
Mar 7	vs BOS	49%	107–110	W 115–109	✗missed	+9
Mar 5	vs PHX	72%	119–110	L 107–117	✗missed	−19
Mar 2	at LAL	47%	117–116	W 124–114	✓correct	+9
Feb 29	vs MIA	61%	109–106	W 103–97	✓correct	+3
Feb 28	vs SAC	67%	117–111	W 117–96	✓correct	+15
Feb 25	at GSW	37%	113–117	W 119–103	✗missed	+20
Feb 23	at POR	49%	113–111	W 127–112	✓correct	+13
Feb 22	vs WAS	76%	120–108	W 130–110	✓correct	+8
Feb 14	vs SAC	67%	116–110	L 98–102	✗missed	−10
Feb 12	at MIL	37%	109–113	L 95–112	✓correct	−13
Feb 9	at SAC	49%	116–114	L 106–135	✗missed	−31
Feb 8	at LAL	51%	116–113	W 114–106	✓correct	+5
Feb 4	vs POR	72%	112–103	W 112–103	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	vs POR	78%	116–103	W 120–108	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	at OKC	32%	105–112	L 100–105	✓correct	+2
Jan 29	vs MIL	67%	117–111	W 113–107	✓correct	±0
Jan 27	vs PHI	73%	119–109	W 111–105	✓correct	−4
Jan 25	at NYK	41%	108–110	L 84–122	✓correct	−36
Jan 23	at IND	47%	115–114	W 114–109	✓correct	+4
Jan 21	at WAS	63%	120–111	W 113–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 19	at BOS	43%	113–114	W 102–100	✗missed	+3
Jan 16	at PHI	43%	110–111	L 121–126	✓correct	−4
Jan 14	vs IND	65%	117–112	W 117–109	✓correct	+3
Jan 12	vs NOP	61%	112–109	W 125–113	✓correct	+9
Jan 10	at UTA	47%	115–114	L 111–124	✗missed	−14
Jan 7	vs DET	84%	126–108	W 131–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 5	vs ORL	67%	115–109	L 120–122	✗missed	−8
Jan 4	at GSW	49%	118–116	W 130–127	✓correct	+1
Jan 1	vs CHA	81%	119–104	W 111–93	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	vs OKC	59%	114–112	L 93–119	✗missed	−28
Dec 28	vs MEM	65%	116–111	W 142–105	✓correct	+32
Dec 25	vs GSW	63%	116–112	W 120–114	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	at CHA	63%	119–110	W 102–95	✓correct	−2
Dec 22	at BKN	49%	117–115	W 122–117	✓correct	+3
Dec 20	at TOR	53%	114–110	W 113–104	✓correct	+5
Dec 18	vs DAL	67%	117–111	W 130–104	✓correct	+20
Dec 16	vs OKC	65%	116–111	L 117–118	✗missed	−6
Dec 14	vs BKN	61%	115–112	W 124–101	✓correct	+20
Dec 12	at CHI	49%	114–112	W 114–106	✓correct	+6
Dec 11	at ATL	47%	119–118	W 129–122	✓correct	+6
Dec 8	vs HOU	65%	113–108	L 106–114	✗missed	−13
Dec 6	at LAC	37%	111–115	L 102–111	✓correct	−5
Dec 2	at SAC	43%	115–116	L 117–123	✓correct	−5
Dec 1	at PHX	49%	112–110	W 119–111	✓correct	+6
Nov 29	vs HOU	68%	113–106	W 134–124	✓correct	+3
Nov 27	at LAC	35%	108–113	W 113–104	✗missed	+14
Nov 26	vs SAS	79%	121–107	W 132–120	✓correct	−2
Nov 24	at HOU	49%	112–110	L 86–105	✗missed	−21
Nov 22	at ORL	47%	113–112	L 119–124	✗missed	−6
Nov 20	at DET	55%	116–111	W 107–103	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	at CLE	51%	112–109	L 109–121	✗missed	−15
Nov 17	at NOP	51%	114–111	L 110–115	✗missed	−8
Nov 14	vs LAC	59%	114–112	W 111–108	✓correct	+1
Nov 12	at HOU	47%	113–112	L 104–107	✗missed	−4
Nov 8	vs GSW	57%	113–112	W 108–105	✓correct	+2
Nov 6	vs NOP	67%	114–108	W 134–116	✓correct	+12
Nov 4	vs CHI	65%	112–107	W 123–101	✓correct	+17
Nov 3	vs DAL	65%	114–109	W 125–114	✓correct	+6
Nov 1	at MIN	39%	108–111	L 89–110	✓correct	−18
Oct 30	vs UTA	61%	116–113	W 110–102	✓correct	+5
Oct 29	at OKC	39%	111–114	W 128–95	✗missed	+36
Oct 27	at MEM	47%	111–110	W 108–104	✓correct	+3
Oct 24	vs LAL	68%	115–108	W 119–107	✓correct	+5
Jun 12 PO	vs MIA	72%	112–103	W 94–89	✓correct	−4
Jun 9 PO	at MIA	30%	101–109	W 108–95	✗missed	+21
Jun 7 PO	at MIA	37%	106–111	W 109–94	✗missed	+20
Jun 4 PO	vs MIA	76%	111–100	L 108–111	✗missed	−14
Jun 1 PO	vs MIA	70%	110–102	W 104–93	✓correct	+3
May 22 PO	at LAL	40%	107–111	W 113–111	✗missed	+6
May 20 PO	at LAL	37%	106–111	W 119–108	✗missed	+16
May 18 PO	vs LAL	80%	117–104	W 108–103	✓correct	−8
May 16 PO	vs LAL	80%	117–104	W 132–126	✓correct	−7
May 11 PO	at PHX	22%	99–111	W 125–100	✗missed	+37
May 9 PO	vs PHX	83%	116–101	W 118–102	✓correct	+1
May 7 PO	at PHX	35%	105–111	L 124–129	✓correct	+1
May 5 PO	at PHX	37%	104–109	L 114–121	✓correct	−2
May 1 PO	vs PHX	74%	113–103	W 97–87	✓correct	±0
Apr 29 PO	vs PHX	68%	113–106	W 125–107	✓correct	+11
Apr 25 PO	vs MIN	60%	108–104	W 112–109	✓correct	−1
Apr 23 PO	at MIN	63%	110–105	L 108–114	✗missed	−11
Apr 21 PO	at MIN	68%	109–102	W 120–111	✓correct	+2
Apr 19 PO	vs MIN	55%	110–108	W 122–113	✓correct	+7
Apr 16 PO	vs MIN	53%	110–109	W 109–80	✓correct	+28
Apr 9	vs SAC	35%	111–117	W 109–95	✗missed	+20
Apr 8	at UTA	87%	123–105	L 114–118	✗missed	−22
Apr 6	at PHX	30%	108–116	L 115–119	✓correct	+4
Apr 4	at HOU	65%	117–111	L 103–124	✗missed	−27
Apr 2	vs GSW	63%	117–112	W 112–110	✓correct	−3
Mar 31	at PHX	47%	114–115	L 93–100	✓correct	−6
Mar 30	vs NOP	68%	116–109	L 88–107	✗missed	−26
Mar 27	vs PHI	72%	111–102	W 116–111	✓correct	−4
Mar 25	vs MIL	58%	116–113	W 129–106	✓correct	+20
Mar 22	at WAS	65%	117–111	W 118–104	✓correct	+8
Mar 19	at BKN	58%	117–114	W 108–102	✓correct	+3
Mar 18	at NYK	35%	110–116	L 110–116	✓correct	±0
Mar 16	at DET	84%	122–106	W 119–100	✓correct	+3
Mar 14	at TOR	65%	116–110	L 110–125	✗missed	−21
Mar 12	vs BKN	60%	116–112	L 120–122	✗missed	−6
Mar 10	at SAS	76%	120–109	L 120–128	✗missed	−19
Mar 8	vs CHI	63%	112–107	L 96–117	✗missed	−26
Mar 6	vs TOR	63%	115–110	W 118–113	✓correct	±0
Mar 3	vs MEM	63%	116–111	W 113–97	✓correct	+11
Feb 28	at HOU	76%	123–112	W 133–112	✓correct	+10
Feb 26	vs LAC	63%	115–110	W 134–124	✓correct	+5
Feb 25	at MEM	42%	111–114	L 94–112	✓correct	−15
Feb 23	at CLE	30%	109–117	W 115–109	✗missed	+14
Feb 15	vs DAL	68%	117–110	W 118–109	✓correct	+2
Feb 13	at MIA	65%	113–107	W 112–108	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	at CHA	81%	125–111	W 119–105	✓correct	±0
Feb 9	at ORL	70%	120–112	L 104–115	✗missed	−19
Feb 7	vs MIN	65%	117–111	W 146–112	✓correct	+28
Feb 5	at MIN	40%	116–120	L 98–128	✓correct	−26
Feb 4	vs ATL	72%	120–111	W 128–108	✓correct	+11
Feb 2	vs GSW	70%	118–110	W 134–117	✓correct	+9
Jan 31	vs NOP	70%	116–108	W 122–113	✓correct	+1
Jan 28	at PHI	45%	113–115	L 119–126	✓correct	−5
Jan 25	at MIL	58%	114–111	L 99–107	✗missed	−11
Jan 24	at NOP	60%	116–112	W 99–98	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	vs OKC	68%	118–111	L 99–101	✗missed	−9
Jan 20	vs IND	63%	116–111	W 134–111	✓correct	+18
Jan 18	vs MIN	47%	112–113	W 122–118	✗missed	+5
Jan 17	vs POR	55%	113–111	W 122–113	✓correct	+7
Jan 15	vs ORL	68%	118–111	W 119–116	✓correct	−4
Jan 13	at LAC	47%	113–114	W 115–103	✗missed	+13
Jan 11	vs PHX	76%	118–107	W 126–97	✓correct	+18
Jan 9	vs LAL	76%	124–113	W 122–109	✓correct	+2
Jan 6	vs CLE	53%	111–110	W 121–108	✓correct	+12
Jan 5	vs LAC	58%	115–112	W 122–91	✓correct	+28
Jan 2	at MIN	58%	119–116	L 111–124	✗missed	−16
Jan 1	vs BOS	55%	115–113	W 123–111	✓correct	+10
Dec 30	vs MIA	55%	112–110	W 124–119	✓correct	+3
Dec 28	at SAC	63%	119–114	L 126–127	✗missed	−6
Dec 27	at SAC	55%	118–116	W 113–106	✓correct	+5
Dec 25	vs PHX	47%	113–114	W 128–125	✗missed	+4
Dec 23	vs POR	60%	117–113	W 120–107	✓correct	+9
Dec 20	vs MEM	53%	117–116	W 105–91	✓correct	+13
Dec 18	vs CHA	80%	121–108	W 119–115	✓correct	−9
Dec 16	at LAL	47%	119–120	L 108–126	✓correct	−17
Dec 14	vs WAS	76%	123–112	W 141–128	✓correct	+2
Dec 10	vs UTA	60%	117–113	W 115–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 8	at POR	60%	115–111	W 121–120	✓correct	−3
Dec 6	vs DAL	53%	109–108	L 115–116	✗missed	−2
Dec 4	at NOP	30%	106–114	L 106–121	✓correct	−7
Dec 2	at ATL	42%	109–112	L 109–117	✓correct	−5
Nov 30	vs HOU	78%	118–106	W 120–100	✓correct	+8
Nov 28	vs HOU	68%	115–108	W 129–113	✓correct	+9
Nov 25	at LAC	53%	109–108	W 114–104	✓correct	+9
Nov 23	at OKC	60%	118–114	W 131–126	✓correct	+1
Nov 22	vs DET	68%	116–109	L 108–110	✗missed	−9
Nov 20	at DAL	37%	105–110	W 98–97	✗missed	+6
Nov 18	at DAL	35%	104–110	L 99–127	✓correct	−22
Nov 16	vs NYK	70%	118–110	L 103–106	✗missed	−11
Nov 13	at CHI	58%	117–114	W 126–103	✓correct	+20
Nov 11	at BOS	40%	112–116	L 112–131	✓correct	−15
Nov 9	at IND	68%	119–112	W 122–119	✓correct	−4
Nov 7	at SAS	70%	117–109	W 115–109	✓correct	−2
Nov 5	vs SAS	55%	116–114	W 126–101	✓correct	+23
Nov 3	at OKC	68%	117–110	W 122–110	✓correct	+5
Oct 30	at LAL	68%	116–109	L 110–121	✗missed	−18
Oct 28	vs UTA	35%	108–114	W 117–101	✗missed	+22
Oct 26	vs LAL	58%	116–113	W 110–99	✓correct	+8
Oct 24	at POR	70%	115–107	L 110–135	✗missed	−33
Oct 22	vs OKC	72%	117–108	W 122–117	✓correct	−4
Oct 21	at GSW	37%	109–114	W 128–123	✗missed	+10
Oct 19	at UTA	35%	107–113	L 102–123	✓correct	−15

Surprise games

All DEN surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected DEN wins

11%DEN beat SAS128–118Apr 12, 2025-26 · forecast SAS127–109 · missed margin by 28
19%DEN beat OKC140–127Mar 10, 2024-25 · forecast OKC126–113 · missed margin by 26
22%DEN beat PHX125–100May 11, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast PHX111–99 · missed margin by 37
25%DEN beat OKC121–119May 5, 2024-25 · playoffs · forecast OKC117–107 · missed margin by 12
30%DEN beat MIA108–95Jun 9, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast MIA109–101 · missed margin by 21

Most unexpected DEN losses

13%SAC beat DEN128–123Nov 22, 2025-26 · forecast DEN128–111 · missed margin by 22
13%UTA beat DEN118–114Apr 8, 2022-23 · forecast DEN123–105 · missed margin by 22
17%DAL beat DEN131–121Dec 1, 2025-26 · forecast DEN126–112 · missed margin by 24
19%WAS beat DEN126–123Mar 15, 2024-25 · forecast DEN124–111 · missed margin by 16
21%SAS beat DEN113–106Apr 2, 2024-25 · forecast DEN124–112 · missed margin by 19

Largest margin misses

53%DEN beat POR157–103Feb 20, 2025-26 · forecast DEN118–117 · missed margin by 53
44%NYK beat DEN142–103Mar 6, 2025-26 · forecast DEN117–115 · missed margin by 41
65%MIN beat DEN115–70May 16, 2023-24 · playoffs · forecast MIN110–105 · missed margin by 40
22%DEN beat PHX125–100May 11, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast PHX111–99 · missed margin by 37
59%NYK beat DEN122–84Jan 25, 2023-24 · forecast NYK110–108 · missed margin by 36

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected DEN wins

Most unexpected DEN losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions