2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

Saturday, October 29, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

OKC 0–0@DAL 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder	102	117	+15
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	116	111	−5

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	OKC	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1388	1606
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+288
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−6.1	+4.3
Games played this season	5	4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	105.4	118.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.2	114.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	14.3	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1388DAL1606

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1388

Ended last season at 1330 → started this one at 1373
This season's 5 games: +15.2

L@MIN108–115−2.9
L@DEN117–122−2.7
LMIN106–116−7.1
WLAC108–94+17.1
WLAC118–110+10.8

DAL1606

Ended last season at 1615 → started this one at 1586
This season's 4 games: +19.8

L@PHX105–107−3.9
WMEM137–96+22.9
L@NOP111–113−4.6
W@BKN129–125+5.4

Season scoring marginOKC−6.1DAL+4.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC−6.1

Scores 111.4, allows 111.4 over 5 games: ±0.0 a game.

25% this season (±0.0) + 75% last season (−8.1) = −6.1

DAL+4.3

Scores 120.5, allows 110.2 over 4 games: +10.3 a game.

20% this season (+10.3) + 80% last season (+2.8) = +4.3

Offensive rating, last 10OKC105.4DAL118.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

OKC105.4scored, −5.9 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.9%	53.3%	−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	11.8%	+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.5%	23.0%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.143	0.196	−1.5
Everything else			−2.5

DAL118.2scored, +6.8 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.4%	53.3%	+6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	11.8%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.3%	23.0%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.255	0.196	+1.7
Everything else			−1.0

Defensive rating, last 10OKC114.2DAL114.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

OKC114.2allowed, +2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	53.3%	−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	11.8%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	23.0%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.196	−0.3
Everything else			+0.3

DAL114.2allowed, +2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	53.3%	−3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	11.8%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.1%	23.0%	−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.196	−0.4
Everything else			+1.5

Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 100.5 and DAL 95.6 → average 98.0 (league 2021-22: 98.6)

Rotation points missingOKC14.3DAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC14.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Josh Giddey	14.3	29.4	3

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-29 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestOKC2 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC2days

Last played Oct 27 against LAC.

DAL2days

Last played Oct 27 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	LAC	118–110	47-95	17-38	7-8	11	13	118.0	111.1	99.5
Oct 25	LAC	108–94	42-110	4-30	20-25	5	21	103.8	91.3	103.5
Oct 23	MIN	106–116	41-94	9-41	15-21	11	11	106.0	116.0	100.0
Oct 22	@DEN	117–122	42-94	15-38	18-23	12	10	112.5	118.4	103.5
Oct 19	@MIN	108–115	38-99	14-45	18-22	13	16	100.9	109.5	106.0
Apr 10	@LAC	88–138	37-98	9-34	5-9	8	12	88.9	139.4	99.0
Apr 8	@LAL	101–120	40-88	6-29	15-19	14	9	100.0	120.0	100.5
Apr 6	@UTA	101–137	37-90	16-37	11-17	10	11	107.4	144.2	94.5
Apr 5	POR	98–94	39-81	9-29	11-22	16	13	101.0	96.9	97.0
Apr 3	PHX	117–96	43-87	17-41	14-18	16	12	115.8	95.0	101.0

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	@BKN	129–125	41-81	20-40	27-35	17	7	121.7	114.7	97.4
Oct 25	@NOP	111–113	41-82	12-39	17-24	11	11	119.4	120.2	93.5
Oct 22	MEM	137–96	45-90	17-39	30-36	15	15	137.0	94.1	101.0
Oct 19	@PHX	105–107	35-75	14-35	21-34	12	5	110.5	113.8	94.5
May 26	@GSW	110–120	37-82	17-42	19-25	7	6	119.6	129.0	92.5
May 24	GSW	119–109	41-82	20-43	17-22	8	4	122.7	111.2	97.5
May 22	GSW	100–109	30-75	13-45	27-34	7	7	109.9	117.2	92.0
May 20	@GSW	117–126	37-78	21-45	22-29	12	4	118.2	128.6	98.5
May 18	@GSW	87–112	31-86	11-48	14-21	13	9	90.6	115.5	96.5
May 15	@PHX	123–90	46-81	19-39	12-12	11	6	132.3	97.8	92.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

the forecast favored DAL

20 pts

margin miss

forecast +14, actual −6 for DAL

8th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

156th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.68 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	OKC	DAL
Final score	117	111
Field goals	44–89 · 49.4%	38–95 · 40.0%
Three-pointers	5–25 · 20.0%	8–40 · 20.0%
Free throws	24–31 · 77.4%	27–34 · 79.4%
Rebounds	47	49
Assists	25	17
Turnovers	15	16
Steals	9	8
Blocks	6	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	+14	−6	−20
Total points	218	228	+10
OKC points	102	117	+15
DAL points	116	111	−5

Recent form before this game