2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, January 23, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
DAL 1–1@OKC 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Dallas Mavericks | 110 | 121 | +11 |
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) | 123 | 115 | −8 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 13.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | DAL | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1545 | 1760 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +285 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +3.3 | +12.1 |
| Games played this season | 44 | 44 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 111.3 | 119.6 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 114.2 | 105.3 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.0 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 47.0 | 21.6 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingDAL1545OKC1760
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
DAL1545
- Ended last season at 1675 → started this one at 1631
- First 34 games: −34.2
- Last 10 games: −51.5
- LCLE122–134−11.4
- L@MEM104–119−11.0
- WLAL118–97+10.2
- WPOR117–111+1.9
- LDEN101–112−13.5
- LDEN99–118−17.7
- L@NOP116–119−8.5
- WOKC106–98+14.7
- L@CHA105–110−11.5
- LMIN114–115−4.7
OKC1760
- Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
- First 34 games: +118.1
- Last 10 games: +24.3
- WNYK117–107+5.3
- WBOS105–92+7.5
- L@CLE122–129−8.2
- W@NYK126–101+15.2
- W@WAS136–95+3.1
- W@PHI118–102+4.8
- WCLE134–114+8.5
- L@DAL98–106−14.7
- WBKN127–101+1.7
- WUTA123–114+1.1
Season scoring marginDAL+3.3OKC+12.1
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
DAL+3.3
Scores 115.1, allows 111.9 over 44 games: +3.3 a game.
OKC+12.1
Scores 116.1, allows 104.0 over 44 games: +12.1 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10DAL111.3OKC119.6
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).
DAL111.3scored, −1.5 vs league
| Factor | DAL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.1% | 54.2% | −3.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.0% | 12.4% | +0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.4% | 24.8% | −0.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.201 | 0.192 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.9 |
OKC119.6scored, +6.8 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.9% | 54.2% | +5.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.6% | 12.4% | +1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.5% | 24.8% | +0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.178 | 0.192 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
Defensive rating, last 10DAL114.2OKC105.3
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).
DAL114.2allowed, +1.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.1% | 54.2% | +1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.9% | 12.4% | −2.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.2% | 24.8% | −1.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.205 | 0.192 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | +0.9 |
OKC105.3allowed, −7.5 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.4% | 54.2% | +5.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.7% | 12.4% | +3.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.2% | 24.8% | −0.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.213 | 0.192 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Pace, last 10average 100.0
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
DAL 99.2 and OKC 100.8 → average 100.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingDAL47.0OKC21.6
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
DAL47.0pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Hardy | 12.9 | 20.0 | 8 |
| Klay Thompson | 11.7 | 26.7 | 9 |
| Naji Marshall | 11.2 | 29.6 | 8 |
| Dereck Lively II | 11.2 | 24.1 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-01-23 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
OKC21.6pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Joe | 12.4 | 21.6 | 9 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 9.2 | 29.9 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-01-23 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestDAL1 daysOKC1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
DAL1day, back-to-back
Last played Jan 22 against MIN.
OKC1day, back-to-back
Last played Jan 22 against UTA.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
DAL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 | MIN | 114–115 | 45-90 | 8-29 | 16-19 | 13 | 7 | 114.0 | 116.2 | 99.5 |
| Jan 20 | @CHA | 105–110 | 38-88 | 6-32 | 23-26 | 14 | 16 | 107.1 | 113.4 | 97.5 |
| Jan 17 | OKC | 106–98 | 37-75 | 16-41 | 16-22 | 17 | 6 | 111.6 | 102.1 | 95.5 |
| Jan 15 | @NOP | 116–119 | 43-90 | 12-35 | 18-25 | 15 | 7 | 112.6 | 115.5 | 103.0 |
| Jan 14 | DEN | 99–118 | 38-90 | 9-32 | 14-22 | 12 | 8 | 99.0 | 119.2 | 99.5 |
| Jan 12 | DEN | 101–112 | 35-85 | 12-34 | 19-25 | 12 | 7 | 105.2 | 115.5 | 96.5 |
| Jan 9 | POR | 117–111 | 40-88 | 10-30 | 27-30 | 14 | 16 | 119.4 | 113.3 | 98.0 |
| Jan 7 | LAL | 118–97 | 45-86 | 18-38 | 10-14 | 10 | 10 | 128.3 | 103.2 | 93.0 |
| Jan 6 | @MEM | 104–119 | 40-98 | 13-36 | 11-15 | 15 | 13 | 98.1 | 114.4 | 105.0 |
| Jan 3 | CLE | 122–134 | 43-100 | 12-44 | 24-30 | 12 | 20 | 117.3 | 128.8 | 104.0 |
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 | UTA | 123–114 | 44-95 | 12-39 | 23-25 | 10 | 13 | 118.3 | 110.7 | 103.5 |
| Jan 19 | BKN | 127–101 | 48-87 | 19-43 | 12-13 | 11 | 5 | 129.6 | 103.1 | 98.0 |
| Jan 17 | @DAL | 98–106 | 35-91 | 20-46 | 8-12 | 15 | 14 | 102.1 | 111.6 | 95.5 |
| Jan 16 | CLE | 134–114 | 53-105 | 18-53 | 10-11 | 6 | 7 | 127.6 | 106.5 | 106.0 |
| Jan 14 | @PHI | 118–102 | 45-81 | 12-36 | 16-18 | 17 | 10 | 120.4 | 103.0 | 98.5 |
| Jan 12 | @WAS | 136–95 | 45-95 | 13-35 | 33-35 | 13 | 15 | 128.3 | 89.6 | 106.0 |
| Jan 10 | @NYK | 126–101 | 48-89 | 14-27 | 16-18 | 15 | 8 | 123.5 | 99.0 | 102.0 |
| Jan 8 | @CLE | 122–129 | 48-90 | 11-31 | 15-17 | 13 | 9 | 122.0 | 127.7 | 100.5 |
| Jan 5 | BOS | 105–92 | 39-87 | 16-38 | 11-13 | 15 | 9 | 107.1 | 94.8 | 97.5 |
| Jan 3 | NYK | 117–107 | 43-84 | 14-27 | 17-21 | 13 | 7 | 117.0 | 107.0 | 100.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | DAL | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 121 | 115 |
| Field goals | 39–74 · 52.7% | 42–88 · 47.7% |
| Three-pointers | 14–31 · 45.2% | 15–37 · 40.5% |
| Free throws | 29–36 · 80.6% | 16–22 · 72.7% |
| Rebounds | 43 | 33 |
| Assists | 25 | 26 |
| Turnovers | 20 | 12 |
| Steals | 9 | 9 |
| Blocks | 3 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Oklahoma City Thunder
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (OKC) | +13 | −6 | −19 |
| Total points | 233 | 236 | +3 |
| DAL points | 110 | 121 | +11 |
| OKC points | 123 | 115 | −8 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 33 | 27 | 31 | 30 | – | 121 |
| OKC | 34 | 28 | 21 | 32 | – | 115 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17 2024-25 | OKC at DAL | OKC 98 – 106 DAL |
| Dec 10 2024-25 | DAL at OKC | DAL 104 – 118 OKC |
| Nov 17 2024-25 | DAL at OKC | DAL 121 – 119 OKC |
| May 18 2023-24 | OKC at DAL | OKC 116 – 117 DAL |
| May 15 2023-24 | DAL at OKC | DAL 104 – 92 OKC |