2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Sunday, April 6, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 2–4@OKC 0–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	111	126	+15
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	126	99	−27

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 84% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1538	1784
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+316
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.9	+12.7
Games played this season	77	78
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.3	123.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.5	105.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	8.6
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1538OKC1784

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1538

Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
First 67 games: +42.0
Last 10 games: −56.1

WDEN120–108+10.0
LMIL89–118−31.9
LCHI115–146−39.3
L@ORL106–118−12.4
W@IND120–119+6.2
L@CHI117–119−3.9
W@MEM134–127+11.9
WHOU104–98+7.9
LGSW116–123−8.9
WNOP124–108+4.3

OKC1784

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
First 68 games: +150.0
Last 10 games: +16.2

W@MIL121–105+8.1
WPHI133–100+2.0
WCHA141–106+1.3
W@LAC103–101+2.9
W@SAC121–105+5.0
WMEM125–104+4.2
WIND132–111+4.8
WCHI145–117+3.7
WDET119–103+3.6
L@HOU111–125−19.4

Season scoring marginLAL+0.9OKC+12.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+0.9

Scores 113.2, allows 112.3 over 77 games: +0.9 a game.

OKC+12.7

Scores 120.0, allows 107.3 over 78 games: +12.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAL116.3OKC123.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

LAL116.3scored, +2.6 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.5%	54.4%	+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.0%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.5%	25.2%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.193	+1.1
Everything else			+0.2

OKC123.0scored, +9.3 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.8%	54.4%	+6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.0%	+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	25.2%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.193	+0.0
Everything else			−0.8

Defensive rating, last 10LAL120.5OKC105.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

LAL120.5allowed, +6.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.5%	54.4%	−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.0%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.9%	25.2%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.197	0.193	−0.1
Everything else			−0.1

OKC105.9allowed, −7.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.3%	54.4%	+4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.0%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.9%	25.2%	+2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.193	−0.4
Everything else			−0.2

Pace, last 10average 100.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 98.5 and OKC 101.7 → average 100.1 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingLAL0.0OKC8.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-06 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

OKC8.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jaylin Williams	8.6	18.4	7

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-06 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysOKC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Apr 4 against NOP.

OKC2days

Last played Apr 4 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 4	NOP	124–108	41-79	16-41	26-28	12	8	130.5	113.7	95.0
Apr 3	GSW	116–123	39-86	18-47	20-23	8	14	126.1	133.7	92.0
Mar 31	HOU	104–98	35-89	16-46	18-20	11	10	106.1	99.0	98.5
Mar 29	@MEM	134–127	45-89	19-43	25-27	13	8	128.8	123.3	103.5
Mar 27	@CHI	117–119	45-91	12-41	15-18	11	6	112.5	113.3	104.5
Mar 26	@IND	120–119	41-79	17-38	21-24	14	8	125.0	125.3	95.5
Mar 24	@ORL	106–118	37-80	10-32	22-28	10	11	115.2	131.1	91.0
Mar 22	CHI	115–146	41-85	17-41	16-22	21	9	109.5	137.7	105.5
Mar 20	MIL	89–118	34-82	11-32	10-16	19	3	91.8	121.6	97.0
Mar 19	DEN	120–108	42-83	16-38	20-28	13	7	117.6	105.9	102.0

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 4	@HOU	111–125	43-89	13-35	12-15	15	7	108.8	122.5	102.0
Apr 2	DET	119–103	42-96	10-38	25-31	10	13	115.5	100.0	103.0
Mar 31	CHI	145–117	52-98	23-43	18-23	14	8	128.3	103.5	113.0
Mar 29	IND	132–111	48-94	17-36	19-23	9	7	126.9	105.7	104.5
Mar 27	MEM	125–104	44-90	13-31	24-28	12	6	120.2	100.0	104.0
Mar 25	@SAC	121–105	43-82	19-32	16-20	15	6	121.0	105.0	100.0
Mar 23	@LAC	103–101	37-92	12-35	17-20	9	10	106.2	104.1	97.0
Mar 21	CHA	141–106	54-94	21-39	12-17	7	9	145.4	110.4	96.5
Mar 19	PHI	133–100	47-90	24-52	15-20	12	9	134.3	100.0	99.5
Mar 16	@MIL	121–105	46-89	10-29	19-25	9	8	123.5	108.2	97.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

16%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

the forecast favored OKC

42 pts

margin miss

forecast +15, actual −27 for OKC

3rd

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

8th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.81 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	OKC
Final score	126	99
Field goals	46–84 · 54.8%	39–90 · 43.3%
Three-pointers	22–40 · 55.0%	12–37 · 32.4%
Free throws	12–17 · 70.6%	9–12 · 75.0%
Rebounds	43	34
Assists	25	20
Turnovers	15	7
Steals	6	9
Blocks	2	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+15	−27	−42
Total points	237	225	−12
LAL points	111	126	+15
OKC points	126	99	−27

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