2024-25 · Playoffs · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder

Sunday, April 20, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 5–2@OKC 0–7 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies	107	80	−27
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	119	131	+12

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MEM	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1544	1752
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+278
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+4.8	+12.5
Games played this season	82	83
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.0	121.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.6	109.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	8.9	0.0
Rest days	5	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1544OKC1752

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1544

Ended last season at 1319 → started this one at 1364
First 72 games: +197.4
Last 10 games: −17.1

L@OKC104–125−4.2
LLAL127–134−11.9
LBOS103–117−8.1
LGSW125–134−10.5
W@MIA110–108+5.8
W@DET109–103+11.5
W@CHA124–100+7.0
LMIN125–141−13.2
L@DEN109–117−6.0
WDAL132–97+12.5

OKC1752

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
First 73 games: +169.3
Last 10 games: −34.9

WMEM125–104+4.2
WIND132–111+4.8
WCHI145–117+3.7
WDET119–103+3.6
L@HOU111–125−19.4
LLAL99–126−46.6
WLAL136–120+5.2
W@PHX125–112+4.0
W@UTA145–111+3.5
W@NOP115–100+2.1

Season scoring marginMEM+4.8OKC+12.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM+4.8

Scores 121.7, allows 116.9 over 82 games: +4.8 a game.

OKC+12.5

Scores 120.2, allows 107.7 over 83 games: +12.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM114.0OKC121.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

MEM114.0scored, +0.3 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.4%	+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.0%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	25.2%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.180	0.192	−0.3
Everything else			+0.6

OKC121.3scored, +7.6 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	54.4%	+3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.0%	12.0%	+4.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.7%	25.2%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.189	0.192	−0.1
Everything else			+1.4

Defensive rating, last 10MEM114.6OKC109.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

MEM114.6allowed, +0.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.2%	54.4%	+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.0%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.7%	25.2%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.229	0.192	−1.1
Everything else			−1.8

OKC109.7allowed, −4.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.4%	+2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.0%	+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.7%	25.2%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.215	0.192	−0.7
Everything else			+0.5

Pace, last 10average 102.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 102.5 and OKC 103.1 → average 102.8 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingMEM8.9OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM8.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jaylen Wells	8.9	26.2	7

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-20 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-20 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestMEM5 daysOKC5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM5days

Last played Apr 13 against DAL (7 days, capped at 5).

OKC5days

Last played Apr 13 against NOP (7 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 13	DAL	132–97	52-104	15-40	13-15	11	18	129.4	95.1	102.0
Apr 11	@DEN	109–117	41-91	14-43	13-19	12	7	105.8	114.7	102.5
Apr 10	MIN	125–141	46-89	18-36	15-21	15	8	121.4	138.2	102.5
Apr 8	@CHA	124–100	42-93	18-55	22-26	13	14	125.3	101.0	99.0
Apr 5	@DET	109–103	39-94	9-32	22-29	14	17	104.8	99.0	104.0
Apr 3	@MIA	110–108	40-85	16-38	14-17	18	12	112.2	109.1	98.5
Apr 1	GSW	125–134	44-92	18-44	19-22	16	8	116.8	126.4	106.5
Mar 31	BOS	103–117	41-92	11-44	10-16	10	5	101.0	113.6	102.5
Mar 29	LAL	127–134	50-95	14-32	13-18	12	9	123.3	128.8	103.5
Mar 27	@OKC	104–125	33-79	16-42	22-23	18	5	100.0	120.2	104.0

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 13	@NOP	115–100	41-98	9-47	24-27	10	14	115.0	99.0	100.5
Apr 11	@UTA	145–111	56-100	24-53	9-13	10	4	135.5	102.8	107.5
Apr 9	@PHX	125–112	45-86	12-30	23-27	10	7	123.8	109.8	101.5
Apr 8	LAL	136–120	52-104	18-37	14-20	6	15	136.0	121.2	99.5
Apr 6	LAL	99–126	39-90	12-37	9-12	7	5	103.1	132.6	95.5
Apr 4	@HOU	111–125	43-89	13-35	12-15	15	7	108.8	122.5	102.0
Apr 2	DET	119–103	42-96	10-38	25-31	10	13	115.5	100.0	103.0
Mar 31	CHI	145–117	52-98	23-43	18-23	14	8	128.3	103.5	113.0
Mar 29	IND	132–111	48-94	17-36	19-23	9	7	126.9	105.7	104.5
Mar 27	MEM	125–104	44-90	13-31	24-28	12	6	120.2	100.0	104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

79%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

OKC was the forecast favorite

39 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual +51 for OKC

1185th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

12th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.24 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MEM	OKC
Final score	80	131
Field goals	32–93 · 34.4%	50–99 · 50.5%
Three-pointers	6–34 · 17.6%	17–48 · 35.4%
Free throws	10–12 · 83.3%	14–15 · 93.3%
Rebounds	43	54
Assists	18	36
Turnovers	22	15
Steals	7	12
Blocks	4	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+12	+51	+39
Total points	226	211	−15
MEM points	107	80	−27
OKC points	119	131	+12

Recent form before this game