Western Conference · 2026-27

Utah Jazz UTA

1–9

2026-27 record

1294

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

103.2

Offensive rating

last 10 games

115.5

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

101.5

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded UTA game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 236 of 338 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of UTA's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. UTA ranks 30 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 9:00 PM ET

MIA Miami Heat 4–6 –

@UTA Utah Jazz 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 9:00 PM ET

ORL Orlando Magic 2–7 –

@UTA Utah Jazz 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 8:30 PM ET

UTA Utah Jazz 1–9 –

@HOU Houston Rockets 7–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked UTA games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

6.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 4.4 to 9.2

−3.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -7.6 to 0.0

7.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

80%

winner picked

10 games involving UTA

1 / 3.0

actual / expected wins

gap −2.0

0.115

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	UTA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at MIN	12%	106–123	L 100–115	✓correct	+2
Nov 6	at DAL	31%	114–121	L 100–112	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	at NOP	28%	114–122	L 113–120	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	at SAS	18%	110–123	L 97–119	✓correct	−9
Oct 31	vs POR	28%	118–126	L 90–112	✓correct	−14
Oct 28	vs SAS	15%	112–127	L 111–117	✓correct	+9
Oct 26	vs MEM	53%	122–121	L 105–110	✗missed	−6
Oct 25	vs LAL	33%	117–123	L 123–132	✓correct	−3
Oct 23	vs NOP	44%	121–123	W 120–119	✗missed	+3
Oct 21	at MEM	36%	122–127	L 103–123	✓correct	−15

2025-26

12.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.3 to 14.1; 22nd smallest of 30

−0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.9 to 2.0

16.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

74%

winner picked

82 games involving UTA

22 / 25.3

actual / expected wins

gap −3.3

0.186

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	UTA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at LAL	15%	109–124	L 107–131	✓correct	−9
Apr 10	vs MEM	34%	118–124	W 147–101	✗missed	+52
Apr 7	at NOP	41%	117–120	L 137–156	✓correct	−16
Apr 5	at OKC	8%	106–127	L 111–146	✓correct	−14
Apr 3	at HOU	10%	108–127	L 106–140	✓correct	−15
Apr 1	vs DEN	15%	114–129	L 117–130	✓correct	+2
Mar 30	vs CLE	27%	116–125	L 113–122	✓correct	±0
Mar 28	at PHX	17%	110–124	L 109–134	✓correct	−11
Mar 27	at DEN	9%	110–130	L 129–135	✓correct	+14
Mar 25	vs WAS	56%	118–116	L 110–133	✗missed	−25
Mar 23	vs TOR	34%	108–114	L 127–143	✓correct	−10
Mar 21	vs PHI	36%	112–117	L 116–126	✓correct	−5
Mar 19	vs MIL	44%	110–112	W 128–96	✗missed	+34
Mar 18	at MIN	26%	109–118	L 111–147	✓correct	−27
Mar 15	at SAC	44%	114–116	L 111–116	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	at POR	22%	111–122	L 114–124	✓correct	+1
Mar 11	vs NYK	31%	111–118	L 117–134	✓correct	−10
Mar 9	vs GSW	31%	110–117	W 119–116	✗missed	+10
Mar 7	at MIL	29%	112–120	L 99–113	✓correct	−6
Mar 5	at WAS	56%	118–116	W 122–112	✓correct	+8
Mar 4	at PHI	26%	114–123	L 102–106	✓correct	+5
Mar 2	vs DEN	15%	109–124	L 125–128	✓correct	+12
Feb 28	vs NOP	36%	112–117	L 105–115	✓correct	−5
Feb 26	vs NOP	36%	112–117	L 118–129	✓correct	−6
Feb 23	at HOU	22%	107–118	L 105–125	✓correct	−9
Feb 20	at MEM	34%	114–120	L 114–123	✓correct	−3
Feb 12	vs POR	31%	112–119	L 119–135	✓correct	−9
Feb 11	vs SAC	59%	116–113	W 121–93	✓correct	+25
Feb 9	at MIA	19%	112–125	W 115–111	✗missed	+17
Feb 7	at ORL	29%	114–122	L 117–120	✓correct	+5
Feb 5	at ATL	22%	112–123	L 119–121	✓correct	+9
Feb 3	at IND	53%	116–115	W 131–122	✓correct	+8
Feb 1	at TOR	22%	112–123	L 100–107	✓correct	+4
Jan 30	vs BKN	61%	114–110	L 99–109	✗missed	−14
Jan 28	vs GSW	24%	115–125	L 124–140	✓correct	−6
Jan 27	vs LAC	19%	111–124	L 103–115	✓correct	+1
Jan 24	vs MIA	29%	115–123	L 116–147	✓correct	−23
Jan 22	vs SAS	22%	111–122	L 109–126	✓correct	−6
Jan 20	vs MIN	20%	115–127	W 127–122	✗missed	+17
Jan 19	at SAS	17%	110–124	L 110–123	✓correct	+1
Jan 17	at DAL	36%	113–118	L 120–138	✓correct	−13
Jan 15	at DAL	53%	114–113	L 122–144	✗missed	−23
Jan 14	at CHI	39%	114–118	L 126–128	✓correct	+2
Jan 12	at CLE	22%	114–125	W 123–112	✗missed	+22
Jan 10	vs CHA	36%	114–119	L 95–150	✓correct	−50
Jan 8	vs DAL	47%	118–119	W 116–114	✗missed	+3
Jan 7	at OKC	13%	110–127	L 125–129	✓correct	+13
Jan 5	at POR	34%	115–121	L 117–137	✓correct	−14
Jan 3	at GSW	26%	117–126	L 114–123	✓correct	±0
Jan 1	at LAC	20%	108–120	L 101–118	✓correct	−5
Dec 30	vs BOS	29%	117–125	L 119–129	✓correct	−2
Dec 27	at SAS	19%	114–127	W 127–114	✗missed	+26
Dec 26	vs DET	20%	115–127	W 131–129	✗missed	+14
Dec 23	vs MEM	27%	113–122	L 128–137	✓correct	±0
Dec 22	at DEN	17%	114–128	L 112–135	✓correct	−9
Dec 20	vs ORL	36%	118–123	L 127–128	✓correct	+4
Dec 18	vs LAL	39%	116–120	L 135–143	✓correct	−4
Dec 15	vs DAL	42%	117–120	W 140–133	✗missed	+10
Dec 12	at MEM	29%	112–120	W 130–126	✗missed	+12
Dec 7	vs OKC	36%	116–121	L 101–131	✓correct	−25
Dec 5	at NYK	19%	113–126	L 112–146	✓correct	−21
Dec 4	at BKN	64%	117–112	W 123–110	✓correct	+8
Dec 1	vs HOU	19%	114–127	W 133–125	✗missed	+21
Nov 30	vs HOU	19%	113–126	L 101–129	✓correct	−15
Nov 28	vs SAC	53%	120–119	W 128–119	✓correct	+8
Nov 24	at GSW	24%	112–122	L 117–134	✓correct	−7
Nov 23	vs LAL	27%	114–123	L 106–108	✓correct	+7
Nov 21	vs OKC	29%	112–120	L 112–144	✓correct	−24
Nov 18	at LAL	22%	112–123	L 126–140	✓correct	−3
Nov 16	vs CHI	31%	116–123	W 150–147	✗missed	+10
Nov 13	vs ATL	31%	112–119	L 122–132	✓correct	−3
Nov 11	vs IND	44%	112–114	W 152–128	✗missed	+26
Nov 10	vs MIN	27%	115–124	L 113–120	✓correct	+2
Nov 7	at MIN	22%	112–123	L 97–137	✓correct	−29
Nov 5	at DET	22%	111–122	L 103–114	✓correct	±0
Nov 3	at BOS	22%	108–119	W 105–103	✗missed	+13
Nov 2	at CHA	71%	119–111	L 103–126	✗missed	−31
Oct 31	at PHX	44%	117–119	L 96–118	✓correct	−20
Oct 29	vs POR	34%	114–120	L 134–136	✓correct	+4
Oct 27	vs PHX	44%	114–116	W 138–134	✗missed	+6
Oct 24	at SAC	36%	113–118	L 104–105	✓correct	+4
Oct 22	vs LAC	29%	111–119	W 129–108	✗missed	+29

2024-25

10.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.5 to 12.0; 7th smallest of 30

−1.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.2 to 1.2

13.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

78%

winner picked

82 games involving UTA

17 / 26.1

actual / expected wins

gap −9.1

0.164

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	UTA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	at MIN	16%	104–119	L 105–116	✓correct	+4
Apr 11	vs OKC	34%	115–122	L 111–145	✓correct	−27
Apr 9	vs POR	32%	113–121	W 133–126	✗missed	+15
Apr 6	at ATL	21%	114–126	L 134–147	✓correct	−1
Apr 4	at IND	10%	107–127	L 112–140	✓correct	−8
Apr 2	at HOU	10%	106–126	L 105–143	✓correct	−18
Mar 31	at CHA	41%	113–116	L 106–110	✓correct	−1
Mar 28	at DEN	12%	113–131	L 93–129	✓correct	−18
Mar 27	vs HOU	17%	108–124	L 110–121	✓correct	+5
Mar 25	vs MEM	27%	114–124	L 103–140	✓correct	−27
Mar 23	vs CLE	20%	110–124	L 91–120	✓correct	−15
Mar 21	vs BOS	20%	107–121	L 99–121	✓correct	−8
Mar 19	vs WAS	46%	114–116	W 128–112	✗missed	+18
Mar 17	vs CHI	39%	114–119	L 97–111	✓correct	−9
Mar 16	at MIN	15%	109–125	L 102–128	✓correct	−10
Mar 14	vs TOR	36%	111–117	L 118–126	✓correct	−2
Mar 12	at MEM	27%	115–124	L 115–122	✓correct	+2
Mar 10	at BOS	14%	108–125	L 108–114	✓correct	+11
Mar 9	at PHI	36%	113–118	L 122–126	✓correct	+1
Mar 7	at TOR	46%	113–114	L 109–118	✓correct	−8
Mar 5	at WAS	46%	116–117	L 122–125	✓correct	−2
Mar 3	vs DET	20%	111–125	L 106–134	✓correct	−14
Mar 2	vs NOP	39%	114–119	L 121–128	✓correct	−2
Feb 28	vs MIN	44%	115–118	W 117–116	✗missed	+4
Feb 26	vs SAC	36%	115–121	L 101–118	✓correct	−11
Feb 24	vs POR	36%	113–119	L 112–114	✓correct	+4
Feb 22	vs HOU	39%	112–117	W 124–115	✗missed	+14
Feb 21	vs OKC	25%	112–123	L 107–130	✓correct	−12
Feb 13	vs LAC	36%	114–120	L 116–120	✓correct	+2
Feb 12	vs LAL	27%	111–121	W 131–119	✗missed	+22
Feb 10	at LAL	23%	111–122	L 113–132	✓correct	−8
Feb 8	at LAC	21%	109–121	L 110–130	✓correct	−8
Feb 7	at PHX	25%	112–122	L 127–135	✓correct	+2
Feb 5	vs GSW	39%	112–117	W 131–128	✗missed	+8
Feb 3	vs IND	27%	111–121	L 111–112	✓correct	+9
Feb 1	vs ORL	46%	108–110	W 113–99	✗missed	+16
Jan 30	vs MIN	44%	111–114	L 113–138	✓correct	−22
Jan 28	at GSW	23%	105–116	L 103–114	✓correct	±0
Jan 27	vs MIL	34%	110–117	L 110–125	✓correct	−8
Jan 25	at MEM	21%	110–122	L 103–125	✓correct	−10
Jan 22	at OKC	15%	108–124	L 114–123	✓correct	+7
Jan 20	at NOP	38%	111–115	L 119–123	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	at NOP	41%	110–113	L 123–136	✓correct	−10
Jan 15	vs CHA	57%	109–107	L 112–117	✗missed	−7
Jan 12	vs BKN	62%	110–106	W 112–111	✓correct	−3
Jan 11	at PHX	33%	107–113	L 106–114	✓correct	−2
Jan 9	vs MIA	44%	111–114	L 92–97	✓correct	−2
Jan 7	vs ATL	36%	114–120	L 121–124	✓correct	+3
Jan 5	at ORL	33%	107–113	W 105–92	✗missed	+19
Jan 4	at MIA	33%	110–116	W 136–100	✗missed	+42
Jan 1	at NYK	15%	107–123	L 103–119	✓correct	±0
Dec 30	vs DEN	29%	116–125	L 121–132	✓correct	−2
Dec 28	vs PHI	44%	111–114	L 111–114	✓correct	±0
Dec 26	at POR	43%	114–116	L 120–122	✓correct	±0
Dec 23	at CLE	15%	110–126	L 113–124	✓correct	+5
Dec 21	at BKN	38%	109–113	W 105–94	✗missed	+15
Dec 19	at DET	46%	112–113	W 126–119	✗missed	+8
Dec 16	at LAC	27%	107–116	L 107–144	✓correct	−28
Dec 13	vs PHX	44%	113–116	L 126–134	✓correct	−5
Dec 8	at SAC	23%	109–120	L 97–141	✓correct	−33
Dec 6	at POR	41%	109–112	W 141–99	✗missed	+45
Dec 3	at OKC	16%	105–120	L 106–133	✓correct	−12
Dec 1	vs LAL	36%	110–116	L 104–105	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	vs DAL	41%	115–119	L 94–106	✓correct	−8
Nov 27	vs DEN	29%	114–123	L 103–122	✓correct	−10
Nov 26	vs SAS	39%	114–119	L 115–128	✓correct	−8
Nov 23	vs NYK	29%	111–120	W 121–106	✗missed	+24
Nov 21	at SAS	31%	108–115	L 118–126	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	at LAL	25%	110–120	L 118–124	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	at LAC	25%	107–117	L 105–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 16	at SAC	38%	111–115	L 117–121	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	vs DAL	34%	112–119	W 115–113	✗missed	+9
Nov 12	vs PHX	39%	111–116	L 112–120	✓correct	−3
Nov 9	at SAS	36%	108–113	W 111–110	✗missed	+6
Nov 7	at MIL	27%	112–121	L 100–123	✓correct	−14
Nov 4	at CHI	23%	111–122	W 135–126	✗missed	+20
Nov 2	at DEN	19%	102–115	L 103–129	✓correct	−13
Oct 31	vs SAS	49%	112–113	L 88–106	✓correct	−17
Oct 29	vs SAC	36%	111–117	L 96–113	✓correct	−11
Oct 28	at DAL	23%	104–115	L 102–110	✓correct	+3
Oct 25	vs GSW	34%	111–118	L 86–127	✓correct	−34
Oct 23	vs MEM	59%	113–110	L 124–126	✗missed	−5

2023-24

11.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.3 to 13.6; 23rd smallest of 30

−1.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.5 to 1.0

15.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

60%

winner picked

82 games involving UTA

31 / 36.2

actual / expected wins

gap −5.2

0.214

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	UTA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at GSW	24%	103–115	L 116–123	✓correct	+5
Apr 12	at LAC	24%	104–116	W 110–109	✗missed	+13
Apr 11	vs HOU	26%	110–125	W 124–121	✗missed	+18
Apr 9	vs DEN	25%	110–126	L 95–111	✓correct	±0
Apr 7	at GSW	24%	107–119	L 110–118	✓correct	+4
Apr 5	at LAC	21%	100–114	L 102–131	✓correct	−15
Apr 2	vs CLE	39%	108–116	L 113–129	✓correct	−8
Mar 31	at SAC	25%	104–115	L 106–127	✓correct	−10
Mar 29	vs HOU	41%	113–120	L 100–101	✓correct	+6
Mar 27	vs SAS	61%	117–114	L 111–118	✗missed	−10
Mar 25	vs DAL	43%	116–122	L 105–115	✓correct	−4
Mar 23	at HOU	25%	110–121	L 119–147	✓correct	−17
Mar 21	at DAL	27%	112–122	L 97–113	✓correct	−6
Mar 20	at OKC	27%	111–121	L 107–119	✓correct	−2
Mar 18	vs MIN	49%	116–119	L 104–114	✓correct	−7
Mar 16	vs MIN	41%	115–122	L 100–119	✓correct	−12
Mar 15	vs ATL	51%	114–116	W 124–122	✗missed	+4
Mar 12	vs BOS	49%	117–120	L 107–123	✓correct	−13
Mar 9	at DEN	28%	110–119	L 121–142	✓correct	−12
Mar 6	vs CHI	43%	114–120	L 117–119	✓correct	+4
Mar 4	vs WAS	63%	118–114	W 127–115	✓correct	+8
Mar 2	at MIA	37%	109–113	L 120–126	✓correct	−2
Feb 29	at ORL	39%	113–116	L 107–115	✓correct	−5
Feb 27	at ATL	55%	122–117	L 97–124	✗missed	−32
Feb 25	vs SAS	70%	122–114	W 128–109	✓correct	+11
Feb 22	vs CHA	73%	124–114	L 107–115	✗missed	−18
Feb 15	vs GSW	53%	121–122	L 137–140	✓correct	−2
Feb 14	vs LAL	68%	127–120	L 122–138	✗missed	−23
Feb 12	vs GSW	57%	121–120	L 107–129	✗missed	−23
Feb 8	at PHX	39%	116–119	L 115–129	✓correct	−11
Feb 6	vs OKC	53%	117–118	W 124–117	✗missed	+8
Feb 4	vs MIL	57%	123–122	W 123–108	✓correct	+14
Feb 1	vs PHI	61%	122–119	L 124–127	✗missed	−6
Jan 30	at NYK	41%	113–115	L 103–118	✓correct	−13
Jan 29	at BKN	51%	115–112	L 114–147	✗missed	−36
Jan 27	at CHA	61%	122–114	W 134–122	✓correct	+4
Jan 25	at WAS	61%	122–114	W 123–108	✓correct	+7
Jan 23	at NOP	39%	114–117	L 124–153	✓correct	−26
Jan 20	at HOU	53%	118–114	L 126–127	✗missed	−5
Jan 18	vs OKC	57%	116–115	L 129–134	✗missed	−6
Jan 15	vs IND	59%	119–117	W 132–105	✓correct	+25
Jan 13	vs LAL	67%	121–115	W 132–125	✓correct	+1
Jan 12	vs TOR	57%	117–116	W 145–113	✓correct	+31
Jan 10	vs DEN	53%	114–115	W 124–111	✗missed	+14
Jan 8	at MIL	39%	116–119	W 132–116	✗missed	+19
Jan 6	at PHI	30%	110–118	W 120–109	✗missed	+19
Jan 5	at BOS	35%	113–118	L 97–126	✓correct	−24
Jan 3	vs DET	78%	124–111	W 154–148	✓correct	−7
Jan 1	vs DAL	53%	117–118	W 127–90	✗missed	+38
Dec 30	vs MIA	53%	115–116	W 117–109	✗missed	+9
Dec 28	at NOP	28%	112–121	L 105–112	✓correct	+2
Dec 26	at SAS	43%	115–116	W 130–118	✗missed	+13
Dec 23	at TOR	30%	112–120	W 126–119	✗missed	+15
Dec 21	at DET	41%	118–120	W 119–111	✗missed	+10
Dec 20	at CLE	28%	105–114	L 116–124	✓correct	+1
Dec 18	vs BKN	45%	109–114	W 125–108	✗missed	+22
Dec 16	at SAC	24%	110–122	L 104–125	✓correct	−9
Dec 14	at POR	41%	110–112	W 122–114	✗missed	+10
Dec 13	vs NYK	43%	109–115	W 117–113	✗missed	+10
Dec 11	at OKC	21%	106–120	L 120–134	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	vs LAC	41%	109–116	L 103–117	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at DAL	27%	111–121	L 97–147	✓correct	−40
Dec 2	vs POR	53%	111–112	W 118–113	✗missed	+6
Nov 30	at MIN	27%	107–117	L 90–101	✓correct	−1
Nov 29	at MEM	43%	112–113	L 91–105	✓correct	−13
Nov 27	vs NOP	51%	115–117	W 114–112	✗missed	+4
Nov 25	vs NOP	41%	116–123	W 105–100	✗missed	+12
Nov 22	at POR	47%	114–113	L 105–121	✗missed	−17
Nov 21	at LAL	37%	114–118	L 99–131	✓correct	−28
Nov 19	vs PHX	57%	114–113	L 137–140	✗missed	−4
Nov 17	vs PHX	53%	115–116	L 128–131	✓correct	−2
Nov 14	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 115–99	✓correct	+9
Nov 10	at MEM	37%	113–117	W 127–121	✗missed	+10
Nov 8	at IND	43%	116–117	L 118–134	✓correct	−15
Nov 6	at CHI	41%	112–114	L 113–130	✓correct	−15
Nov 4	at MIN	35%	112–117	L 95–123	✓correct	−23
Nov 2	vs ORL	57%	116–115	L 113–115	✗missed	−3
Nov 1	vs MEM	53%	115–116	W 133–109	✗missed	+25
Oct 30	at DEN	39%	113–116	L 102–110	✓correct	−5
Oct 28	at PHX	34%	113–119	L 104–126	✓correct	−16
Oct 27	vs LAC	51%	116–118	W 120–118	✗missed	+4
Oct 25	vs SAC	45%	113–118	L 114–130	✓correct	−11

2022-23

Across 82 graded games, UTA finished an average of 2.3 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -4.3 to -0.4).

8.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.4 to 10.1; 1st smallest of 30

−2.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.3 to -0.4

11.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

66%

winner picked

82 games involving UTA

37 / 43.8

actual / expected wins

gap −6.8

0.238

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	UTA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	at LAL	22%	113–125	L 117–128	✓correct	+1
Apr 8	vs DEN	13%	105–123	W 118–114	✗missed	+22
Apr 6	vs OKC	30%	116–124	L 98–114	✓correct	−8
Apr 4	vs LAL	35%	118–124	L 133–135	✓correct	+4
Apr 2	at BKN	40%	114–118	L 110–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 31	at BOS	35%	113–119	L 114–122	✓correct	−2
Mar 29	at SAS	80%	126–113	W 128–117	✓correct	−2
Mar 27	vs PHX	45%	122–124	L 103–117	✓correct	−12
Mar 25	at SAC	32%	116–123	L 113–121	✓correct	−1
Mar 24	vs MIL	40%	115–119	L 116–144	✓correct	−24
Mar 22	vs POR	72%	122–113	L 115–127	✗missed	−21
Mar 20	vs SAC	32%	119–126	W 128–120	✗missed	+15
Mar 18	vs BOS	40%	111–115	W 118–117	✗missed	+5
Mar 13	at MIA	47%	113–114	L 115–119	✓correct	−3
Mar 11	at CHA	55%	116–114	W 119–111	✓correct	+6
Mar 9	at ORL	47%	112–113	W 131–124	✗missed	+8
Mar 7	at DAL	45%	117–119	L 116–120	✓correct	−2
Mar 5	at OKC	26%	114–124	L 119–129	✓correct	±0
Mar 3	at OKC	42%	116–119	L 103–130	✓correct	−24
Feb 28	vs SAS	70%	118–110	L 94–102	✗missed	−16
Feb 25	vs SAS	76%	122–111	W 118–102	✓correct	+5
Feb 23	vs OKC	53%	123–122	W 120–119	✓correct	±0
Feb 15	at MEM	26%	112–122	L 111–117	✓correct	+4
Feb 13	at IND	60%	122–118	W 123–117	✓correct	+2
Feb 11	at NYK	32%	111–118	L 120–126	✓correct	+1
Feb 10	at TOR	28%	112–121	W 122–116	✗missed	+15
Feb 8	vs MIN	58%	121–118	L 118–143	✗missed	−28
Feb 6	vs DAL	70%	118–110	L 111–124	✗missed	−21
Feb 3	vs ATL	55%	119–117	L 108–115	✗missed	−9
Feb 1	vs TOR	60%	119–115	W 131–128	✓correct	−1
Jan 28	vs DAL	63%	117–112	W 108–100	✓correct	+3
Jan 25	at POR	53%	120–119	L 124–134	✗missed	−11
Jan 23	vs CHA	78%	124–112	W 120–102	✓correct	+6
Jan 20	vs BKN	60%	118–114	L 106–117	✗missed	−15
Jan 18	vs LAC	65%	121–115	W 126–103	✓correct	+17
Jan 16	at MIN	40%	114–118	W 126–125	✗missed	+5
Jan 14	vs PHI	47%	117–118	L 117–118	✓correct	±0
Jan 13	vs ORL	72%	122–113	W 112–108	✓correct	−5
Jan 10	vs CLE	53%	117–116	W 116–114	✓correct	+1
Jan 8	at MEM	32%	113–120	L 118–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 7	at CHI	47%	116–117	L 118–126	✓correct	−7
Jan 5	at HOU	65%	120–114	W 131–114	✓correct	+11
Jan 3	vs SAC	53%	117–116	L 115–117	✗missed	−3
Dec 31	vs MIA	53%	111–110	L 123–126	✗missed	−4
Dec 30	at SAC	42%	114–117	L 125–126	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	at GSW	58%	118–115	L 107–112	✗missed	−8
Dec 26	at SAS	70%	121–113	L 122–126	✗missed	−12
Dec 22	vs WAS	68%	120–113	W 120–112	✓correct	+1
Dec 20	at DET	55%	120–118	W 126–111	✓correct	+13
Dec 19	at CLE	28%	105–114	L 99–122	✓correct	−14
Dec 17	at MIL	37%	110–115	L 97–123	✓correct	−21
Dec 15	vs NOP	53%	114–113	W 132–129	✓correct	+2
Dec 13	vs NOP	55%	117–115	W 121–100	✓correct	+19
Dec 10	at DEN	40%	113–117	L 110–115	✓correct	−1
Dec 9	vs MIN	60%	116–112	L 108–118	✗missed	−14
Dec 7	vs GSW	63%	121–116	W 124–123	✓correct	−4
Dec 3	vs POR	76%	122–111	L 111–116	✗missed	−16
Dec 2	vs IND	65%	120–114	W 139–119	✓correct	+14
Nov 30	vs LAC	58%	115–112	W 125–112	✓correct	+10
Nov 28	vs CHI	60%	118–114	L 107–114	✗missed	−11
Nov 26	at PHX	37%	113–118	L 112–113	✓correct	+4
Nov 25	at GSW	47%	114–115	L 118–129	✓correct	−10
Nov 23	vs DET	86%	123–106	L 116–125	✗missed	−26
Nov 21	at LAC	65%	114–108	L 114–121	✗missed	−13
Nov 19	at POR	63%	115–110	W 118–113	✓correct	±0
Nov 18	vs PHX	58%	110–107	W 134–133	✓correct	−2
Nov 15	vs NYK	68%	117–110	L 111–118	✗missed	−14
Nov 13	at PHI	58%	111–108	L 98–105	✗missed	−10
Nov 12	at WAS	70%	114–106	L 112–121	✗missed	−17
Nov 9	at ATL	55%	112–110	W 125–119	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	vs LAL	70%	115–107	W 139–116	✓correct	+15
Nov 6	at LAC	63%	111–106	W 110–102	✓correct	+3
Nov 4	at LAL	74%	117–107	W 130–116	✓correct	+4
Nov 2	at DAL	37%	107–112	L 100–103	✓correct	+2
Oct 31	vs MEM	53%	111–110	W 121–105	✓correct	+15
Oct 29	vs MEM	47%	108–109	W 124–123	✗missed	+2
Oct 28	at DEN	65%	114–108	L 101–117	✗missed	−22
Oct 26	vs HOU	80%	116–103	W 109–101	✓correct	−5
Oct 24	at HOU	68%	116–109	L 108–114	✗missed	−13
Oct 23	at NOP	55%	109–107	W 122–121	✓correct	−1
Oct 21	at MIN	58%	110–107	W 132–126	✓correct	+3
Oct 19	vs DEN	65%	113–107	W 123–102	✓correct	+15

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.8 to 11.5; 5th smallest of 30

−1.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.9 to -0.4

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

70%

winner picked

338 games involving UTA

108 / 134.4

actual / expected wins

gap −26.4

0.198

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 338 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	UTA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at MIN	12%	106–123	L 100–115	✓correct	+2
Nov 6	at DAL	31%	114–121	L 100–112	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	at NOP	28%	114–122	L 113–120	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	at SAS	18%	110–123	L 97–119	✓correct	−9
Oct 31	vs POR	28%	118–126	L 90–112	✓correct	−14
Oct 28	vs SAS	15%	112–127	L 111–117	✓correct	+9
Oct 26	vs MEM	53%	122–121	L 105–110	✗missed	−6
Oct 25	vs LAL	33%	117–123	L 123–132	✓correct	−3
Oct 23	vs NOP	44%	121–123	W 120–119	✗missed	+3
Oct 21	at MEM	36%	122–127	L 103–123	✓correct	−15
Apr 12	at LAL	15%	109–124	L 107–131	✓correct	−9
Apr 10	vs MEM	34%	118–124	W 147–101	✗missed	+52
Apr 7	at NOP	41%	117–120	L 137–156	✓correct	−16
Apr 5	at OKC	8%	106–127	L 111–146	✓correct	−14
Apr 3	at HOU	10%	108–127	L 106–140	✓correct	−15
Apr 1	vs DEN	15%	114–129	L 117–130	✓correct	+2
Mar 30	vs CLE	27%	116–125	L 113–122	✓correct	±0
Mar 28	at PHX	17%	110–124	L 109–134	✓correct	−11
Mar 27	at DEN	9%	110–130	L 129–135	✓correct	+14
Mar 25	vs WAS	56%	118–116	L 110–133	✗missed	−25
Mar 23	vs TOR	34%	108–114	L 127–143	✓correct	−10
Mar 21	vs PHI	36%	112–117	L 116–126	✓correct	−5
Mar 19	vs MIL	44%	110–112	W 128–96	✗missed	+34
Mar 18	at MIN	26%	109–118	L 111–147	✓correct	−27
Mar 15	at SAC	44%	114–116	L 111–116	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	at POR	22%	111–122	L 114–124	✓correct	+1
Mar 11	vs NYK	31%	111–118	L 117–134	✓correct	−10
Mar 9	vs GSW	31%	110–117	W 119–116	✗missed	+10
Mar 7	at MIL	29%	112–120	L 99–113	✓correct	−6
Mar 5	at WAS	56%	118–116	W 122–112	✓correct	+8
Mar 4	at PHI	26%	114–123	L 102–106	✓correct	+5
Mar 2	vs DEN	15%	109–124	L 125–128	✓correct	+12
Feb 28	vs NOP	36%	112–117	L 105–115	✓correct	−5
Feb 26	vs NOP	36%	112–117	L 118–129	✓correct	−6
Feb 23	at HOU	22%	107–118	L 105–125	✓correct	−9
Feb 20	at MEM	34%	114–120	L 114–123	✓correct	−3
Feb 12	vs POR	31%	112–119	L 119–135	✓correct	−9
Feb 11	vs SAC	59%	116–113	W 121–93	✓correct	+25
Feb 9	at MIA	19%	112–125	W 115–111	✗missed	+17
Feb 7	at ORL	29%	114–122	L 117–120	✓correct	+5
Feb 5	at ATL	22%	112–123	L 119–121	✓correct	+9
Feb 3	at IND	53%	116–115	W 131–122	✓correct	+8
Feb 1	at TOR	22%	112–123	L 100–107	✓correct	+4
Jan 30	vs BKN	61%	114–110	L 99–109	✗missed	−14
Jan 28	vs GSW	24%	115–125	L 124–140	✓correct	−6
Jan 27	vs LAC	19%	111–124	L 103–115	✓correct	+1
Jan 24	vs MIA	29%	115–123	L 116–147	✓correct	−23
Jan 22	vs SAS	22%	111–122	L 109–126	✓correct	−6
Jan 20	vs MIN	20%	115–127	W 127–122	✗missed	+17
Jan 19	at SAS	17%	110–124	L 110–123	✓correct	+1
Jan 17	at DAL	36%	113–118	L 120–138	✓correct	−13
Jan 15	at DAL	53%	114–113	L 122–144	✗missed	−23
Jan 14	at CHI	39%	114–118	L 126–128	✓correct	+2
Jan 12	at CLE	22%	114–125	W 123–112	✗missed	+22
Jan 10	vs CHA	36%	114–119	L 95–150	✓correct	−50
Jan 8	vs DAL	47%	118–119	W 116–114	✗missed	+3
Jan 7	at OKC	13%	110–127	L 125–129	✓correct	+13
Jan 5	at POR	34%	115–121	L 117–137	✓correct	−14
Jan 3	at GSW	26%	117–126	L 114–123	✓correct	±0
Jan 1	at LAC	20%	108–120	L 101–118	✓correct	−5
Dec 30	vs BOS	29%	117–125	L 119–129	✓correct	−2
Dec 27	at SAS	19%	114–127	W 127–114	✗missed	+26
Dec 26	vs DET	20%	115–127	W 131–129	✗missed	+14
Dec 23	vs MEM	27%	113–122	L 128–137	✓correct	±0
Dec 22	at DEN	17%	114–128	L 112–135	✓correct	−9
Dec 20	vs ORL	36%	118–123	L 127–128	✓correct	+4
Dec 18	vs LAL	39%	116–120	L 135–143	✓correct	−4
Dec 15	vs DAL	42%	117–120	W 140–133	✗missed	+10
Dec 12	at MEM	29%	112–120	W 130–126	✗missed	+12
Dec 7	vs OKC	36%	116–121	L 101–131	✓correct	−25
Dec 5	at NYK	19%	113–126	L 112–146	✓correct	−21
Dec 4	at BKN	64%	117–112	W 123–110	✓correct	+8
Dec 1	vs HOU	19%	114–127	W 133–125	✗missed	+21
Nov 30	vs HOU	19%	113–126	L 101–129	✓correct	−15
Nov 28	vs SAC	53%	120–119	W 128–119	✓correct	+8
Nov 24	at GSW	24%	112–122	L 117–134	✓correct	−7
Nov 23	vs LAL	27%	114–123	L 106–108	✓correct	+7
Nov 21	vs OKC	29%	112–120	L 112–144	✓correct	−24
Nov 18	at LAL	22%	112–123	L 126–140	✓correct	−3
Nov 16	vs CHI	31%	116–123	W 150–147	✗missed	+10
Nov 13	vs ATL	31%	112–119	L 122–132	✓correct	−3
Nov 11	vs IND	44%	112–114	W 152–128	✗missed	+26
Nov 10	vs MIN	27%	115–124	L 113–120	✓correct	+2
Nov 7	at MIN	22%	112–123	L 97–137	✓correct	−29
Nov 5	at DET	22%	111–122	L 103–114	✓correct	±0
Nov 3	at BOS	22%	108–119	W 105–103	✗missed	+13
Nov 2	at CHA	71%	119–111	L 103–126	✗missed	−31
Oct 31	at PHX	44%	117–119	L 96–118	✓correct	−20
Oct 29	vs POR	34%	114–120	L 134–136	✓correct	+4
Oct 27	vs PHX	44%	114–116	W 138–134	✗missed	+6
Oct 24	at SAC	36%	113–118	L 104–105	✓correct	+4
Oct 22	vs LAC	29%	111–119	W 129–108	✗missed	+29
Apr 13	at MIN	16%	104–119	L 105–116	✓correct	+4
Apr 11	vs OKC	34%	115–122	L 111–145	✓correct	−27
Apr 9	vs POR	32%	113–121	W 133–126	✗missed	+15
Apr 6	at ATL	21%	114–126	L 134–147	✓correct	−1
Apr 4	at IND	10%	107–127	L 112–140	✓correct	−8
Apr 2	at HOU	10%	106–126	L 105–143	✓correct	−18
Mar 31	at CHA	41%	113–116	L 106–110	✓correct	−1
Mar 28	at DEN	12%	113–131	L 93–129	✓correct	−18
Mar 27	vs HOU	17%	108–124	L 110–121	✓correct	+5
Mar 25	vs MEM	27%	114–124	L 103–140	✓correct	−27
Mar 23	vs CLE	20%	110–124	L 91–120	✓correct	−15
Mar 21	vs BOS	20%	107–121	L 99–121	✓correct	−8
Mar 19	vs WAS	46%	114–116	W 128–112	✗missed	+18
Mar 17	vs CHI	39%	114–119	L 97–111	✓correct	−9
Mar 16	at MIN	15%	109–125	L 102–128	✓correct	−10
Mar 14	vs TOR	36%	111–117	L 118–126	✓correct	−2
Mar 12	at MEM	27%	115–124	L 115–122	✓correct	+2
Mar 10	at BOS	14%	108–125	L 108–114	✓correct	+11
Mar 9	at PHI	36%	113–118	L 122–126	✓correct	+1
Mar 7	at TOR	46%	113–114	L 109–118	✓correct	−8
Mar 5	at WAS	46%	116–117	L 122–125	✓correct	−2
Mar 3	vs DET	20%	111–125	L 106–134	✓correct	−14
Mar 2	vs NOP	39%	114–119	L 121–128	✓correct	−2
Feb 28	vs MIN	44%	115–118	W 117–116	✗missed	+4
Feb 26	vs SAC	36%	115–121	L 101–118	✓correct	−11
Feb 24	vs POR	36%	113–119	L 112–114	✓correct	+4
Feb 22	vs HOU	39%	112–117	W 124–115	✗missed	+14
Feb 21	vs OKC	25%	112–123	L 107–130	✓correct	−12
Feb 13	vs LAC	36%	114–120	L 116–120	✓correct	+2
Feb 12	vs LAL	27%	111–121	W 131–119	✗missed	+22
Feb 10	at LAL	23%	111–122	L 113–132	✓correct	−8
Feb 8	at LAC	21%	109–121	L 110–130	✓correct	−8
Feb 7	at PHX	25%	112–122	L 127–135	✓correct	+2
Feb 5	vs GSW	39%	112–117	W 131–128	✗missed	+8
Feb 3	vs IND	27%	111–121	L 111–112	✓correct	+9
Feb 1	vs ORL	46%	108–110	W 113–99	✗missed	+16
Jan 30	vs MIN	44%	111–114	L 113–138	✓correct	−22
Jan 28	at GSW	23%	105–116	L 103–114	✓correct	±0
Jan 27	vs MIL	34%	110–117	L 110–125	✓correct	−8
Jan 25	at MEM	21%	110–122	L 103–125	✓correct	−10
Jan 22	at OKC	15%	108–124	L 114–123	✓correct	+7
Jan 20	at NOP	38%	111–115	L 119–123	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	at NOP	41%	110–113	L 123–136	✓correct	−10
Jan 15	vs CHA	57%	109–107	L 112–117	✗missed	−7
Jan 12	vs BKN	62%	110–106	W 112–111	✓correct	−3
Jan 11	at PHX	33%	107–113	L 106–114	✓correct	−2
Jan 9	vs MIA	44%	111–114	L 92–97	✓correct	−2
Jan 7	vs ATL	36%	114–120	L 121–124	✓correct	+3
Jan 5	at ORL	33%	107–113	W 105–92	✗missed	+19
Jan 4	at MIA	33%	110–116	W 136–100	✗missed	+42
Jan 1	at NYK	15%	107–123	L 103–119	✓correct	±0
Dec 30	vs DEN	29%	116–125	L 121–132	✓correct	−2
Dec 28	vs PHI	44%	111–114	L 111–114	✓correct	±0
Dec 26	at POR	43%	114–116	L 120–122	✓correct	±0
Dec 23	at CLE	15%	110–126	L 113–124	✓correct	+5
Dec 21	at BKN	38%	109–113	W 105–94	✗missed	+15
Dec 19	at DET	46%	112–113	W 126–119	✗missed	+8
Dec 16	at LAC	27%	107–116	L 107–144	✓correct	−28
Dec 13	vs PHX	44%	113–116	L 126–134	✓correct	−5
Dec 8	at SAC	23%	109–120	L 97–141	✓correct	−33
Dec 6	at POR	41%	109–112	W 141–99	✗missed	+45
Dec 3	at OKC	16%	105–120	L 106–133	✓correct	−12
Dec 1	vs LAL	36%	110–116	L 104–105	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	vs DAL	41%	115–119	L 94–106	✓correct	−8
Nov 27	vs DEN	29%	114–123	L 103–122	✓correct	−10
Nov 26	vs SAS	39%	114–119	L 115–128	✓correct	−8
Nov 23	vs NYK	29%	111–120	W 121–106	✗missed	+24
Nov 21	at SAS	31%	108–115	L 118–126	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	at LAL	25%	110–120	L 118–124	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	at LAC	25%	107–117	L 105–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 16	at SAC	38%	111–115	L 117–121	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	vs DAL	34%	112–119	W 115–113	✗missed	+9
Nov 12	vs PHX	39%	111–116	L 112–120	✓correct	−3
Nov 9	at SAS	36%	108–113	W 111–110	✗missed	+6
Nov 7	at MIL	27%	112–121	L 100–123	✓correct	−14
Nov 4	at CHI	23%	111–122	W 135–126	✗missed	+20
Nov 2	at DEN	19%	102–115	L 103–129	✓correct	−13
Oct 31	vs SAS	49%	112–113	L 88–106	✓correct	−17
Oct 29	vs SAC	36%	111–117	L 96–113	✓correct	−11
Oct 28	at DAL	23%	104–115	L 102–110	✓correct	+3
Oct 25	vs GSW	34%	111–118	L 86–127	✓correct	−34
Oct 23	vs MEM	59%	113–110	L 124–126	✗missed	−5
Apr 14	at GSW	24%	103–115	L 116–123	✓correct	+5
Apr 12	at LAC	24%	104–116	W 110–109	✗missed	+13
Apr 11	vs HOU	26%	110–125	W 124–121	✗missed	+18
Apr 9	vs DEN	25%	110–126	L 95–111	✓correct	±0
Apr 7	at GSW	24%	107–119	L 110–118	✓correct	+4
Apr 5	at LAC	21%	100–114	L 102–131	✓correct	−15
Apr 2	vs CLE	39%	108–116	L 113–129	✓correct	−8
Mar 31	at SAC	25%	104–115	L 106–127	✓correct	−10
Mar 29	vs HOU	41%	113–120	L 100–101	✓correct	+6
Mar 27	vs SAS	61%	117–114	L 111–118	✗missed	−10
Mar 25	vs DAL	43%	116–122	L 105–115	✓correct	−4
Mar 23	at HOU	25%	110–121	L 119–147	✓correct	−17
Mar 21	at DAL	27%	112–122	L 97–113	✓correct	−6
Mar 20	at OKC	27%	111–121	L 107–119	✓correct	−2
Mar 18	vs MIN	49%	116–119	L 104–114	✓correct	−7
Mar 16	vs MIN	41%	115–122	L 100–119	✓correct	−12
Mar 15	vs ATL	51%	114–116	W 124–122	✗missed	+4
Mar 12	vs BOS	49%	117–120	L 107–123	✓correct	−13
Mar 9	at DEN	28%	110–119	L 121–142	✓correct	−12
Mar 6	vs CHI	43%	114–120	L 117–119	✓correct	+4
Mar 4	vs WAS	63%	118–114	W 127–115	✓correct	+8
Mar 2	at MIA	37%	109–113	L 120–126	✓correct	−2
Feb 29	at ORL	39%	113–116	L 107–115	✓correct	−5
Feb 27	at ATL	55%	122–117	L 97–124	✗missed	−32
Feb 25	vs SAS	70%	122–114	W 128–109	✓correct	+11
Feb 22	vs CHA	73%	124–114	L 107–115	✗missed	−18
Feb 15	vs GSW	53%	121–122	L 137–140	✓correct	−2
Feb 14	vs LAL	68%	127–120	L 122–138	✗missed	−23
Feb 12	vs GSW	57%	121–120	L 107–129	✗missed	−23
Feb 8	at PHX	39%	116–119	L 115–129	✓correct	−11
Feb 6	vs OKC	53%	117–118	W 124–117	✗missed	+8
Feb 4	vs MIL	57%	123–122	W 123–108	✓correct	+14
Feb 1	vs PHI	61%	122–119	L 124–127	✗missed	−6
Jan 30	at NYK	41%	113–115	L 103–118	✓correct	−13
Jan 29	at BKN	51%	115–112	L 114–147	✗missed	−36
Jan 27	at CHA	61%	122–114	W 134–122	✓correct	+4
Jan 25	at WAS	61%	122–114	W 123–108	✓correct	+7
Jan 23	at NOP	39%	114–117	L 124–153	✓correct	−26
Jan 20	at HOU	53%	118–114	L 126–127	✗missed	−5
Jan 18	vs OKC	57%	116–115	L 129–134	✗missed	−6
Jan 15	vs IND	59%	119–117	W 132–105	✓correct	+25
Jan 13	vs LAL	67%	121–115	W 132–125	✓correct	+1
Jan 12	vs TOR	57%	117–116	W 145–113	✓correct	+31
Jan 10	vs DEN	53%	114–115	W 124–111	✗missed	+14
Jan 8	at MIL	39%	116–119	W 132–116	✗missed	+19
Jan 6	at PHI	30%	110–118	W 120–109	✗missed	+19
Jan 5	at BOS	35%	113–118	L 97–126	✓correct	−24
Jan 3	vs DET	78%	124–111	W 154–148	✓correct	−7
Jan 1	vs DAL	53%	117–118	W 127–90	✗missed	+38
Dec 30	vs MIA	53%	115–116	W 117–109	✗missed	+9
Dec 28	at NOP	28%	112–121	L 105–112	✓correct	+2
Dec 26	at SAS	43%	115–116	W 130–118	✗missed	+13
Dec 23	at TOR	30%	112–120	W 126–119	✗missed	+15
Dec 21	at DET	41%	118–120	W 119–111	✗missed	+10
Dec 20	at CLE	28%	105–114	L 116–124	✓correct	+1
Dec 18	vs BKN	45%	109–114	W 125–108	✗missed	+22
Dec 16	at SAC	24%	110–122	L 104–125	✓correct	−9
Dec 14	at POR	41%	110–112	W 122–114	✗missed	+10
Dec 13	vs NYK	43%	109–115	W 117–113	✗missed	+10
Dec 11	at OKC	21%	106–120	L 120–134	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	vs LAC	41%	109–116	L 103–117	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at DAL	27%	111–121	L 97–147	✓correct	−40
Dec 2	vs POR	53%	111–112	W 118–113	✗missed	+6
Nov 30	at MIN	27%	107–117	L 90–101	✓correct	−1
Nov 29	at MEM	43%	112–113	L 91–105	✓correct	−13
Nov 27	vs NOP	51%	115–117	W 114–112	✗missed	+4
Nov 25	vs NOP	41%	116–123	W 105–100	✗missed	+12
Nov 22	at POR	47%	114–113	L 105–121	✗missed	−17
Nov 21	at LAL	37%	114–118	L 99–131	✓correct	−28
Nov 19	vs PHX	57%	114–113	L 137–140	✗missed	−4
Nov 17	vs PHX	53%	115–116	L 128–131	✓correct	−2
Nov 14	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 115–99	✓correct	+9
Nov 10	at MEM	37%	113–117	W 127–121	✗missed	+10
Nov 8	at IND	43%	116–117	L 118–134	✓correct	−15
Nov 6	at CHI	41%	112–114	L 113–130	✓correct	−15
Nov 4	at MIN	35%	112–117	L 95–123	✓correct	−23
Nov 2	vs ORL	57%	116–115	L 113–115	✗missed	−3
Nov 1	vs MEM	53%	115–116	W 133–109	✗missed	+25
Oct 30	at DEN	39%	113–116	L 102–110	✓correct	−5
Oct 28	at PHX	34%	113–119	L 104–126	✓correct	−16
Oct 27	vs LAC	51%	116–118	W 120–118	✗missed	+4
Oct 25	vs SAC	45%	113–118	L 114–130	✓correct	−11
Apr 9	at LAL	22%	113–125	L 117–128	✓correct	+1
Apr 8	vs DEN	13%	105–123	W 118–114	✗missed	+22
Apr 6	vs OKC	30%	116–124	L 98–114	✓correct	−8
Apr 4	vs LAL	35%	118–124	L 133–135	✓correct	+4
Apr 2	at BKN	40%	114–118	L 110–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 31	at BOS	35%	113–119	L 114–122	✓correct	−2
Mar 29	at SAS	80%	126–113	W 128–117	✓correct	−2
Mar 27	vs PHX	45%	122–124	L 103–117	✓correct	−12
Mar 25	at SAC	32%	116–123	L 113–121	✓correct	−1
Mar 24	vs MIL	40%	115–119	L 116–144	✓correct	−24
Mar 22	vs POR	72%	122–113	L 115–127	✗missed	−21
Mar 20	vs SAC	32%	119–126	W 128–120	✗missed	+15
Mar 18	vs BOS	40%	111–115	W 118–117	✗missed	+5
Mar 13	at MIA	47%	113–114	L 115–119	✓correct	−3
Mar 11	at CHA	55%	116–114	W 119–111	✓correct	+6
Mar 9	at ORL	47%	112–113	W 131–124	✗missed	+8
Mar 7	at DAL	45%	117–119	L 116–120	✓correct	−2
Mar 5	at OKC	26%	114–124	L 119–129	✓correct	±0
Mar 3	at OKC	42%	116–119	L 103–130	✓correct	−24
Feb 28	vs SAS	70%	118–110	L 94–102	✗missed	−16
Feb 25	vs SAS	76%	122–111	W 118–102	✓correct	+5
Feb 23	vs OKC	53%	123–122	W 120–119	✓correct	±0
Feb 15	at MEM	26%	112–122	L 111–117	✓correct	+4
Feb 13	at IND	60%	122–118	W 123–117	✓correct	+2
Feb 11	at NYK	32%	111–118	L 120–126	✓correct	+1
Feb 10	at TOR	28%	112–121	W 122–116	✗missed	+15
Feb 8	vs MIN	58%	121–118	L 118–143	✗missed	−28
Feb 6	vs DAL	70%	118–110	L 111–124	✗missed	−21
Feb 3	vs ATL	55%	119–117	L 108–115	✗missed	−9
Feb 1	vs TOR	60%	119–115	W 131–128	✓correct	−1
Jan 28	vs DAL	63%	117–112	W 108–100	✓correct	+3
Jan 25	at POR	53%	120–119	L 124–134	✗missed	−11
Jan 23	vs CHA	78%	124–112	W 120–102	✓correct	+6
Jan 20	vs BKN	60%	118–114	L 106–117	✗missed	−15
Jan 18	vs LAC	65%	121–115	W 126–103	✓correct	+17
Jan 16	at MIN	40%	114–118	W 126–125	✗missed	+5
Jan 14	vs PHI	47%	117–118	L 117–118	✓correct	±0
Jan 13	vs ORL	72%	122–113	W 112–108	✓correct	−5
Jan 10	vs CLE	53%	117–116	W 116–114	✓correct	+1
Jan 8	at MEM	32%	113–120	L 118–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 7	at CHI	47%	116–117	L 118–126	✓correct	−7
Jan 5	at HOU	65%	120–114	W 131–114	✓correct	+11
Jan 3	vs SAC	53%	117–116	L 115–117	✗missed	−3
Dec 31	vs MIA	53%	111–110	L 123–126	✗missed	−4
Dec 30	at SAC	42%	114–117	L 125–126	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	at GSW	58%	118–115	L 107–112	✗missed	−8
Dec 26	at SAS	70%	121–113	L 122–126	✗missed	−12
Dec 22	vs WAS	68%	120–113	W 120–112	✓correct	+1
Dec 20	at DET	55%	120–118	W 126–111	✓correct	+13
Dec 19	at CLE	28%	105–114	L 99–122	✓correct	−14
Dec 17	at MIL	37%	110–115	L 97–123	✓correct	−21
Dec 15	vs NOP	53%	114–113	W 132–129	✓correct	+2
Dec 13	vs NOP	55%	117–115	W 121–100	✓correct	+19
Dec 10	at DEN	40%	113–117	L 110–115	✓correct	−1
Dec 9	vs MIN	60%	116–112	L 108–118	✗missed	−14
Dec 7	vs GSW	63%	121–116	W 124–123	✓correct	−4
Dec 3	vs POR	76%	122–111	L 111–116	✗missed	−16
Dec 2	vs IND	65%	120–114	W 139–119	✓correct	+14
Nov 30	vs LAC	58%	115–112	W 125–112	✓correct	+10
Nov 28	vs CHI	60%	118–114	L 107–114	✗missed	−11
Nov 26	at PHX	37%	113–118	L 112–113	✓correct	+4
Nov 25	at GSW	47%	114–115	L 118–129	✓correct	−10
Nov 23	vs DET	86%	123–106	L 116–125	✗missed	−26
Nov 21	at LAC	65%	114–108	L 114–121	✗missed	−13
Nov 19	at POR	63%	115–110	W 118–113	✓correct	±0
Nov 18	vs PHX	58%	110–107	W 134–133	✓correct	−2
Nov 15	vs NYK	68%	117–110	L 111–118	✗missed	−14
Nov 13	at PHI	58%	111–108	L 98–105	✗missed	−10
Nov 12	at WAS	70%	114–106	L 112–121	✗missed	−17
Nov 9	at ATL	55%	112–110	W 125–119	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	vs LAL	70%	115–107	W 139–116	✓correct	+15
Nov 6	at LAC	63%	111–106	W 110–102	✓correct	+3
Nov 4	at LAL	74%	117–107	W 130–116	✓correct	+4
Nov 2	at DAL	37%	107–112	L 100–103	✓correct	+2
Oct 31	vs MEM	53%	111–110	W 121–105	✓correct	+15
Oct 29	vs MEM	47%	108–109	W 124–123	✗missed	+2
Oct 28	at DEN	65%	114–108	L 101–117	✗missed	−22
Oct 26	vs HOU	80%	116–103	W 109–101	✓correct	−5
Oct 24	at HOU	68%	116–109	L 108–114	✗missed	−13
Oct 23	at NOP	55%	109–107	W 122–121	✓correct	−1
Oct 21	at MIN	58%	110–107	W 132–126	✓correct	+3
Oct 19	vs DEN	65%	113–107	W 123–102	✓correct	+15

Surprise games

All UTA surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected UTA wins

13%UTA beat DEN118–114Apr 8, 2022-23 · forecast DEN123–105 · missed margin by 22
19%UTA beat MIA115–111Feb 9, 2025-26 · forecast MIA125–112 · missed margin by 17
19%UTA beat SAS127–114Dec 27, 2025-26 · forecast SAS127–114 · missed margin by 26
19%UTA beat HOU133–125Dec 1, 2025-26 · forecast HOU127–114 · missed margin by 21
20%UTA beat MIN127–122Jan 20, 2025-26 · forecast MIN127–115 · missed margin by 17

Most unexpected UTA losses

14%DET beat UTA125–116Nov 23, 2022-23 · forecast UTA123–106 · missed margin by 26
24%POR beat UTA116–111Dec 3, 2022-23 · forecast UTA122–111 · missed margin by 16
27%CHA beat UTA115–107Feb 22, 2023-24 · forecast UTA124–114 · missed margin by 18
28%POR beat UTA127–115Mar 22, 2022-23 · forecast UTA122–113 · missed margin by 21
29%CHA beat UTA126–103Nov 2, 2025-26 · forecast UTA119–111 · missed margin by 31

Largest margin misses

34%UTA beat MEM147–101Apr 10, 2025-26 · forecast MEM124–118 · missed margin by 52
64%CHA beat UTA150–95Jan 10, 2025-26 · forecast CHA119–114 · missed margin by 50
41%UTA beat POR141–99Dec 6, 2024-25 · forecast POR112–109 · missed margin by 45
33%UTA beat MIA136–100Jan 4, 2024-25 · forecast MIA116–110 · missed margin by 42
73%DAL beat UTA147–97Dec 6, 2023-24 · forecast DAL121–111 · missed margin by 40

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected UTA wins

Most unexpected UTA losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions