The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 25

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

Thursday, December 25, 2025 · tip-off 2:30 PM ET

SAS 2–0@OKC 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAS 19 percent, OKC 81 percent. SAS Spurs 19% proj. 113 · final 117 OKC Thunder · home 81% proj. 126 · final 102
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAS San Antonio Spurs 113 117 +4
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) 126 102 −24

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputSASOKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16061765
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +229
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.5+15.5
Games played this season 3029
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 120.6118.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.1105.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.026.2
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1606OKC1765

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1606

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
  2. First 20 games: +96.1
  3. Last 10 games: +72.6
  • W@ORL114–112+6.9
  • L@CLE117–130−7.8
  • W@NOP135–132+2.6
  • W@LAL132–119+17.6
  • WSAS111–109±0.0
  • L@SAS109–111±0.0
  • WWAS119–94+3.4
  • W@ATL126–98+20.3
  • W@WAS124–113+4.1
  • WOKC130–110+25.5

OKC1765

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1760 → started this one at 1695
  2. First 19 games: +77.1
  3. Last 10 games: −6.7
  • WPHX123–119+1.4
  • W@POR123–115+3.5
  • W@GSW124–112+6.1
  • WDAL132–111+2.0
  • W@UTA131–101+4.4
  • WPHX138–89+6.9
  • WLAC122–101+2.2
  • L@MIN107–112−10.2
  • WMEM119–103+2.5
  • L@SAS110–130−25.5
Season scoring marginSAS+6.5OKC+15.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+6.5

Scores 120.0, allows 113.5 over 30 games: +6.5 a game.

OKC+15.5

Scores 122.4, allows 106.9 over 29 games: +15.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS120.6OKC118.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

SAS120.6scored, +5.8 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.1%54.5%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.4%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.220+0.0
Everything else+1.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

OKC118.0scored, +3.2 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.8%54.5%+6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.4%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.220−0.8
Everything else−4.8

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10SAS110.1OKC105.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

SAS110.1allowed, −4.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.4%−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1810.220+1.1
Everything else+5.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

OKC105.8allowed, −9.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.5%+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.7%12.4%+3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.220+0.3
Everything else+2.7

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 103.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 102.9 and OKC 103.0 → average 103.0 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.8)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0OKC26.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

OKC26.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ajay Mitchell11.925.59
Ousmane Dieng10.719.83
Jaylin Williams3.718.56

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-25 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestSAS2 daysOKC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS2days

Last played Dec 23 against OKC.

OKC2days

Last played Dec 23 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 23OKC130–11048-8416-3618-249–136.8115.895.0
Dec 21@WAS124–11343-10413-4125-329–121.6108.7103.0
Dec 19@ATL126–9851-9413-3611-1614–117.892.5106.5
Dec 18WAS119–9444-9015-4216-2014–120.294.099.5
Dec 13OKC111–10937-9013-4224-3219–104.7101.9106.5
Dec 10@LAL132–11943-8617-3829-3610–126.9113.3104.5
Dec 8@NOP135–13249-9817-3620-2513–128.6124.5105.5
Dec 5@CLE117–13042-9315-4318-2614–113.6126.2103.0
Dec 3@ORL114–11242-9113-3817-2419–108.6104.7106.0
Dec 2MEM126–11942-9218-3924-316–127.3119.099.5

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 23@SAS110–13046-8512-306-713–115.8136.895.0
Dec 22MEM119–10346-9415-3912-1413–113.398.1105.0
Dec 19@MIN107–11234-9211-3928-3011–103.9108.7103.0
Dec 18LAC122–10148-10113-3613-168–114.094.4107.0
Dec 13@SAS109–11138-929-3724-2714–101.9104.7106.5
Dec 10PHX138–8952-8822-4012-1314–131.485.6104.5
Dec 7@UTA131–10151-8821-428-1813–131.0100.0100.5
Dec 5DAL132–11147-8412-3026-286–133.3113.398.5
Dec 2@GSW124–11246-7915-3217-2315–121.6109.8102.0
Nov 30@POR123–11544-9010-2925-3212–113.9106.5108.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
19%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
the forecast favored OKC
28 pts
margin miss
forecast +13, actual −15 for OKC
13th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
67th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.69 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSASOKC
Final score117102
Field goals45–84 · 53.6%37–95 · 38.9%
Three-pointers11–29 · 37.9%11–44 · 25.0%
Free throws16–21 · 76.2%17–25 · 68.0%
Rebounds4948
Assists2023
Turnovers127
Steals37
Blocks46

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)+13−15−28
Total points239219−20
SAS points113117+4
OKC points126102−24

Recent form before this game

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Dec 23 vs OKC W 130–110
Dec 21 at WAS W 124–113
Dec 19 at ATL W 126–98
Dec 18 vs WAS W 119–94
Dec 10 at LAL W 132–119

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Dec 23 at SAS L 110–130
Dec 22 vs MEM W 119–103
Dec 19 at MIN L 107–112
Dec 18 vs LAC W 122–101
Dec 10 vs PHX W 138–89

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 23 2025-26 OKC at SAS OKC 110 – 130 SAS
Mar 2 2024-25 OKC at SAS OKC 146 – 132 SAS
Nov 19 2024-25 OKC at SAS OKC 104 – 110 SAS
Oct 30 2024-25 SAS at OKC SAS 93 – 105 OKC
Apr 10 2023-24 SAS at OKC SAS 89 – 127 OKC