2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Thursday, April 2, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

LAL 0–0@OKC 2–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	111	96	−15
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	118	139	+21

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1617	1733
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+185
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.1	+11.2
Games played this season	76	75
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	120.1	118.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.5	106.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	10.4	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1617OKC1733

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1617

Ended last season at 1561 → started this one at 1546
First 66 games: +16.5
Last 10 games: +54.8

WDEN127–125+4.1
W@HOU100–92+11.7
W@HOU124–116+10.8
W@MIA134–126+10.4
W@ORL105–104+4.3
L@DET110–113−3.5
W@IND137–130+2.8
WBKN116–99+2.1
WWAS120–101+2.0
WCLE127–113+10.1

OKC1733

Ended last season at 1760 → started this one at 1695
First 65 games: +10.3
Last 10 games: +27.4

WBOS104–102+2.8
WMIN116–103+4.2
W@ORL113–108+5.1
W@BKN121–92+4.0
W@WAS132–111+2.3
W@PHI123–103+8.4
L@BOS109–119−11.2
WCHI131–113+2.0
WNYK111–100+6.1
WDET114–110+3.7

Season scoring marginLAL+2.1OKC+11.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+2.1

Scores 116.8, allows 114.7 over 76 games: +2.1 a game.

OKC+11.2

Scores 118.7, allows 107.6 over 75 games: +11.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAL120.1OKC118.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

LAL120.1scored, +5.4 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.8%	54.6%	+6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.2%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	26.0%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.292	0.210	+2.4
Everything else			−3.3

OKC118.2scored, +3.5 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.2%	54.6%	+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.2%	+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.1%	26.0%	+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.236	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			−0.1

Defensive rating, last 10LAL112.5OKC106.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

LAL112.5allowed, −2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.9%	54.6%	+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	26.0%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.210	+0.9
Everything else			−1.2

OKC106.8allowed, −7.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.4%	54.6%	+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.1%	12.2%	+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.7%	26.0%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			−1.8

Pace, last 10average 98.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 98.5 and OKC 98.4 → average 98.5 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingLAL10.4OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL10.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Marcus Smart	10.4	32.7	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-02 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysOKC3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Mar 31 against CLE.

OKC3days

Last played Mar 30 against DET.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 31	CLE	127–113	45-83	13-31	24-26	10	8	129.6	116.5	97.5
Mar 30	WAS	120–101	44-79	7-24	25-32	15	9	117.6	101.0	101.0
Mar 27	BKN	116–99	38-70	11-25	29-42	13	6	118.4	100.0	98.5
Mar 25	@IND	137–130	50-89	9-23	28-34	13	7	126.9	122.6	107.0
Mar 23	@DET	110–113	38-79	8-29	26-31	12	9	115.8	120.2	94.5
Mar 21	@ORL	105–104	39-87	8-32	19-29	12	14	110.5	108.3	95.5
Mar 19	@MIA	134–126	43-81	14-32	34-45	11	13	128.8	122.3	103.5
Mar 18	@HOU	124–116	46-76	15-32	17-27	13	5	129.2	120.8	96.0
Mar 16	@HOU	100–92	37-84	8-34	18-22	11	12	107.5	101.1	92.0
Mar 14	DEN	127–125	48-93	14-42	17-26	16	7	116.5	112.6	99.6

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 30	DET	114–110	38-81	10-34	28-32	17	6	108.6	104.8	95.1
Mar 29	NYK	111–100	35-75	10-28	31-38	13	12	120.7	107.5	92.5
Mar 27	CHI	131–113	47-101	14-45	23-31	9	15	126.0	107.6	104.5
Mar 25	@BOS	109–119	38-80	12-37	21-26	7	4	113.5	122.7	96.5
Mar 23	@PHI	123–103	48-90	18-41	9-10	15	11	121.8	103.0	100.5
Mar 21	@WAS	132–111	50-93	11-30	21-30	13	17	130.7	111.0	100.5
Mar 18	@BKN	121–92	45-85	14-35	17-22	17	9	116.3	88.5	104.0
Mar 17	@ORL	113–108	40-90	9-29	24-27	10	11	113.0	106.9	100.5
Mar 15	MIN	116–103	42-101	15-40	17-19	7	15	116.0	104.0	99.5
Mar 12	BOS	104–102	40-84	11-44	13-17	12	11	115.6	112.1	90.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

69%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

OKC was the forecast favorite

36 pts

margin miss

forecast +7, actual +43 for OKC

907th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

18th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.37 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	OKC
Final score	96	139
Field goals	34–79 · 43.0%	55–102 · 53.9%
Three-pointers	7–30 · 23.3%	19–42 · 45.2%
Free throws	21–27 · 77.8%	10–13 · 76.9%
Rebounds	38	50
Assists	20	32
Turnovers	18	10
Steals	8	12
Blocks	5	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+7	+43	+36
Total points	229	235	+6
LAL points	111	96	−15
OKC points	118	139	+21

Recent form before this game