Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Detroit Pistons DET

6–3

2026-27 record

1648

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

111.5

Offensive rating

last 10 games

104.9

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

98.5

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded DET game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 251 of 356 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of DET's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. DET ranks 4 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 7:00 PM ET

WAS Washington Wizards 4–6 –

@DET Detroit Pistons 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 12 7:00 PM ET

DET Detroit Pistons 6–3 –

@WAS Washington Wizards 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 8:00 PM ET

DET Detroit Pistons 6–3 –

@MIA Miami Heat 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked DET games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 9 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

11.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.6 to 15.6

+4.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.0 to 11.6

13.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

67%

winner picked

9 games involving DET

6 / 5.3

actual / expected wins

gap +0.7

0.213

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 9 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DET win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs LAL	61%	113–109	L 116–121	✗missed	−9
Nov 4	vs PHI	58%	108–106	L 106–112	✗missed	−8
Nov 2	at CHA	64%	111–106	W 124–91	✓correct	+28
Oct 30	at BKN	74%	117–108	W 110–94	✓correct	+7
Oct 28	vs CHA	56%	111–109	W 97–89	✓correct	+6
Oct 27	at NYK	47%	109–110	L 97–111	✓correct	−13
Oct 25	at PHI	62%	113–109	W 106–93	✓correct	+9
Oct 23	at MIA	56%	116–114	W 128–111	✓correct	+15
Oct 20	vs BOS	50%	107–108	W 121–113	✗missed	+9

2025-26

10.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.7 to 11.8; 3rd smallest of 30

+1.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.6 to 3.8

13.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

68%

winner picked

95 games involving DET

66 / 60.7

actual / expected wins

gap +5.3

0.206

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 95 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DET win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 17 PO	vs CLE	74%	109–100	L 94–125	✗missed	−40
May 15 PO	at CLE	36%	102–107	W 115–94	✗missed	+26
May 13 PO	vs CLE	67%	110–104	L 113–117	✗missed	−10
May 11 PO	at CLE	39%	105–109	L 103–112	✓correct	−5
May 9 PO	at CLE	44%	106–108	L 109–116	✓correct	−5
May 7 PO	vs CLE	71%	116–108	W 107–97	✓correct	+2
May 5 PO	vs CLE	59%	111–108	W 111–101	✓correct	+7
May 3 PO	vs ORL	78%	110–99	W 116–94	✓correct	+11
May 1 PO	at ORL	37%	109–114	W 93–79	✗missed	+19
Apr 29 PO	vs ORL	76%	113–103	W 116–109	✓correct	−3
Apr 27 PO	at ORL	45%	109–111	L 88–94	✓correct	−4
Apr 25 PO	at ORL	55%	112–110	L 105–113	✗missed	−10
Apr 22 PO	vs ORL	76%	115–105	W 98–83	✓correct	+5
Apr 19 PO	vs ORL	83%	117–103	L 101–112	✗missed	−25
Apr 12	at IND	87%	125–108	W 133–121	✓correct	−5
Apr 10	at CHA	56%	111–109	W 118–100	✓correct	+16
Apr 8	vs MIL	83%	118–104	W 137–111	✓correct	+12
Apr 6	at ORL	61%	117–113	L 107–123	✗missed	−20
Apr 4	at PHI	58%	119–116	W 116–93	✓correct	+20
Apr 2	vs MIN	67%	118–112	W 113–108	✓correct	−1
Mar 31	vs TOR	64%	118–113	W 127–116	✓correct	+6
Mar 30	at OKC	26%	110–119	L 110–114	✓correct	+5
Mar 28	at MIN	61%	115–111	W 109–87	✓correct	+18
Mar 26	vs NOP	69%	119–112	W 129–108	✓correct	+14
Mar 25	vs ATL	61%	118–114	L 129–130	✗missed	−5
Mar 23	vs LAL	53%	113–112	W 113–110	✓correct	+2
Mar 20	vs GSW	74%	116–107	W 115–101	✓correct	+5
Mar 19	at WAS	83%	125–111	W 117–95	✓correct	+8
Mar 17	at WAS	87%	126–109	W 130–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 15	at TOR	64%	114–109	L 108–119	✗missed	−16
Mar 13	vs MEM	78%	121–110	W 126–110	✓correct	+5
Mar 12	vs PHI	85%	125–110	W 131–109	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	at BKN	74%	117–108	W 138–100	✓correct	+29
Mar 8	at MIA	56%	117–115	L 110–121	✗missed	−13
Mar 7	vs BKN	82%	117–104	L 105–107	✗missed	−15
Mar 5	at SAS	39%	112–116	L 106–121	✓correct	−11
Mar 3	at CLE	56%	113–111	L 109–113	✗missed	−6
Mar 1	at ORL	66%	114–108	W 106–92	✓correct	+8
Feb 27	vs CLE	59%	115–112	W 122–119	✓correct	±0
Feb 25	vs OKC	67%	118–112	W 124–116	✓correct	+2
Feb 23	vs SAS	59%	118–115	L 103–114	✗missed	−14
Feb 21	at CHI	80%	125–113	W 126–110	✓correct	+4
Feb 19	at NYK	53%	112–111	W 126–111	✓correct	+14
Feb 11	at TOR	47%	115–116	W 113–95	✗missed	+19
Feb 9	at CHA	53%	114–113	W 110–104	✓correct	+5
Feb 6	vs NYK	61%	113–109	W 118–80	✓correct	+34
Feb 5	vs WAS	92%	126–105	L 117–126	✗missed	−30
Feb 3	vs DEN	61%	111–107	W 124–121	✓correct	−1
Feb 1	vs BKN	85%	117–102	W 130–77	✓correct	+38
Jan 30	at GSW	47%	114–115	W 131–124	✗missed	+8
Jan 29	at PHX	58%	111–108	L 96–114	✗missed	−21
Jan 27	at DEN	58%	111–108	W 109–107	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs SAC	76%	118–108	W 139–116	✓correct	+13
Jan 23	vs HOU	61%	110–106	L 104–111	✗missed	−11
Jan 21	at NOP	78%	119–108	W 112–104	✓correct	−3
Jan 19	vs BOS	53%	112–111	W 104–103	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	vs IND	83%	123–109	W 121–78	✓correct	+29
Jan 15	vs PHX	61%	114–110	W 108–105	✓correct	−1
Jan 10	vs LAC	61%	113–109	L 92–98	✗missed	−10
Jan 7	vs CHI	83%	124–110	W 108–93	✓correct	+1
Jan 5	vs NYK	64%	119–114	W 121–90	✓correct	+26
Jan 4	at CLE	53%	119–118	W 114–110	✓correct	+3
Jan 1	vs MIA	69%	121–114	L 112–118	✗missed	−13
Dec 30	at LAL	66%	117–111	W 128–106	✓correct	+16
Dec 28	at LAC	66%	117–111	L 99–112	✗missed	−19
Dec 26	at UTA	80%	127–115	L 129–131	✗missed	−14
Dec 23	at SAC	76%	122–112	W 136–127	✓correct	−1
Dec 22	at POR	64%	120–115	W 110–102	✓correct	+3
Dec 20	vs CHA	78%	122–111	W 112–86	✓correct	+15
Dec 18	at DAL	64%	120–115	L 114–116	✗missed	−7
Dec 15	at BOS	47%	115–116	W 112–105	✗missed	+8
Dec 12	vs ATL	67%	121–115	W 142–115	✓correct	+21
Dec 6	vs MIL	78%	123–112	W 124–112	✓correct	+1
Dec 5	vs POR	69%	121–114	W 122–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 3	at MIL	64%	119–114	L 109–113	✗missed	−9
Dec 1	vs ATL	64%	121–116	W 99–98	✓correct	−4
Nov 29	at MIA	41%	116–119	W 138–135	✗missed	+6
Nov 28	vs ORL	64%	119–114	L 109–112	✗missed	−8
Nov 26	at BOS	47%	114–115	L 114–117	✓correct	−2
Nov 24	at IND	69%	121–114	W 122–117	✓correct	−2
Nov 22	at MIL	66%	120–114	W 129–116	✓correct	+7
Nov 18	at ATL	47%	116–117	W 120–112	✗missed	+9
Nov 17	vs IND	78%	121–110	W 127–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 14	vs PHI	78%	124–113	W 114–105	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	vs CHI	56%	117–115	W 124–113	✓correct	+9
Nov 10	vs WAS	83%	123–109	W 137–135	✓correct	−12
Nov 9	at PHI	61%	120–116	W 111–108	✓correct	−1
Nov 7	at BKN	76%	120–110	W 125–107	✓correct	+8
Nov 5	vs UTA	78%	122–111	W 114–103	✓correct	±0
Nov 3	at MEM	58%	119–116	W 114–106	✓correct	+5
Oct 29	vs ORL	67%	114–108	W 135–116	✓correct	+13
Oct 27	vs CLE	44%	114–116	L 95–116	✓correct	−19
Oct 26	vs BOS	44%	108–110	W 119–113	✗missed	+8
Oct 24	at HOU	44%	110–112	W 115–111	✗missed	+6
Oct 22	at CHI	36%	113–118	L 111–115	✓correct	+1

2024-25

10.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.8 to 11.4; 5th smallest of 30

+1.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.7 to 3.8

12.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

58%

winner picked

88 games involving DET

46 / 44.2

actual / expected wins

gap +1.8

0.247

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 88 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DET win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 1 PO	vs NYK	62%	107–103	L 113–116	✗missed	−7
Apr 29 PO	at NYK	33%	103–109	W 106–103	✗missed	+9
Apr 27 PO	vs NYK	64%	110–105	L 93–94	✗missed	−6
Apr 24 PO	vs NYK	62%	107–103	L 116–118	✗missed	−6
Apr 21 PO	at NYK	29%	103–111	W 100–94	✗missed	+14
Apr 19 PO	at NYK	25%	99–109	L 112–123	✓correct	−1
Apr 13	at MIL	54%	117–115	L 133–140	✗missed	−9
Apr 11	vs MIL	46%	115–117	L 119–125	✓correct	−4
Apr 10	vs NYK	57%	113–111	W 115–106	✓correct	+7
Apr 7	vs SAC	67%	117–111	L 117–127	✗missed	−16
Apr 5	vs MEM	67%	121–115	L 103–109	✗missed	−12
Apr 4	at TOR	64%	119–113	W 117–105	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	at OKC	18%	112–126	L 103–119	✓correct	−2
Mar 30	at MIN	31%	111–118	L 104–123	✓correct	−12
Mar 28	vs CLE	49%	115–116	W 133–122	✗missed	+12
Mar 25	vs SAS	79%	128–116	W 122–96	✓correct	+14
Mar 23	vs NOP	79%	122–110	W 136–130	✓correct	−6
Mar 21	at DAL	77%	123–111	L 117–123	✗missed	−18
Mar 19	at MIA	59%	116–112	W 116–113	✓correct	−1
Mar 17	at NOP	66%	121–114	W 127–81	✓correct	+39
Mar 15	vs OKC	49%	120–121	L 107–113	✓correct	−5
Mar 13	vs WAS	81%	123–110	L 125–129	✗missed	−17
Mar 11	vs WAS	79%	122–110	W 123–103	✓correct	+8
Mar 9	at POR	46%	117–118	W 119–112	✗missed	+8
Mar 8	at GSW	38%	114–118	L 110–115	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	at LAC	61%	118–113	L 115–123	✗missed	−13
Mar 3	at UTA	80%	125–111	W 134–106	✓correct	+14
Mar 1	vs BKN	75%	116–106	W 115–94	✓correct	+11
Feb 28	vs DEN	64%	122–117	L 119–134	✗missed	−20
Feb 26	vs BOS	49%	115–116	W 117–97	✗missed	+21
Feb 24	vs LAC	69%	122–115	W 106–97	✓correct	+2
Feb 23	at ATL	56%	121–118	W 148–143	✓correct	+2
Feb 21	at SAS	56%	120–117	W 125–110	✓correct	+12
Feb 12	at CHI	73%	124–114	W 128–110	✓correct	+8
Feb 11	at CHI	64%	120–114	W 132–92	✓correct	+34
Feb 9	vs CHA	85%	122–106	W 112–102	✓correct	−6
Feb 7	vs PHI	59%	118–115	W 125–112	✓correct	+10
Feb 5	vs CLE	46%	116–118	L 115–118	✓correct	−1
Feb 3	vs ATL	73%	120–111	L 130–132	✗missed	−11
Feb 2	vs CHI	73%	120–111	W 127–119	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	vs DAL	54%	116–115	W 117–102	✓correct	+14
Jan 29	at IND	31%	112–119	L 119–133	✓correct	−7
Jan 27	at CLE	33%	114–120	L 91–110	✓correct	−13
Jan 25	at ORL	59%	111–107	L 113–121	✗missed	−12
Jan 22	at ATL	46%	115–116	W 114–104	✗missed	+11
Jan 20	at HOU	33%	110–116	W 107–96	✗missed	+17
Jan 18	vs PHX	59%	115–112	L 121–125	✗missed	−7
Jan 16	vs IND	49%	113–114	L 100–111	✓correct	−10
Jan 13	at NYK	29%	109–117	W 124–119	✗missed	+13
Jan 11	vs TOR	77%	120–109	W 123–114	✓correct	−2
Jan 9	vs GSW	57%	114–112	L 104–107	✗missed	−5
Jan 8	at BKN	56%	111–108	W 113–98	✓correct	+12
Jan 6	vs POR	69%	119–112	W 118–115	✓correct	−4
Jan 4	vs MIN	46%	111–113	W 119–105	✗missed	+16
Jan 3	vs CHA	69%	119–112	W 98–94	✓correct	−3
Jan 1	vs ORL	54%	115–114	W 105–96	✓correct	+8
Dec 28	at DEN	33%	118–124	L 121–134	✓correct	−7
Dec 26	at SAC	31%	115–122	W 114–113	✗missed	+8
Dec 23	at LAL	31%	114–121	W 117–114	✗missed	+10
Dec 21	at PHX	31%	114–121	W 133–125	✗missed	+15
Dec 19	vs UTA	54%	113–112	L 119–126	✗missed	−8
Dec 16	vs MIA	39%	110–115	W 125–124	✗missed	+6
Dec 12	at BOS	23%	108–119	L 99–123	✓correct	−13
Dec 7	at NYK	19%	106–119	W 120–111	✗missed	+22
Dec 4	at BOS	19%	106–119	L 120–130	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	vs MIL	41%	110–114	L 107–128	✓correct	−17
Nov 30	vs PHI	73%	112–103	L 96–111	✗missed	−24
Nov 29	at IND	31%	111–118	W 130–106	✗missed	+31
Nov 27	at MEM	29%	110–118	L 111–131	✓correct	−12
Nov 25	vs TOR	67%	111–105	W 102–100	✓correct	−4
Nov 23	at ORL	27%	103–112	L 100–111	✓correct	−2
Nov 21	at CHA	54%	110–108	L 121–123	✗missed	−4
Nov 18	vs CHI	62%	119–115	L 112–122	✗missed	−14
Nov 17	at WAS	56%	115–112	W 124–104	✓correct	+17
Nov 15	at TOR	54%	110–108	W 99–95	✓correct	+2
Nov 13	at MIL	41%	107–110	L 120–127	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	vs MIA	54%	111–110	W 123–121	✓correct	+1
Nov 10	vs HOU	39%	108–113	L 99–101	✓correct	+3
Nov 8	vs ATL	49%	115–116	W 122–121	✗missed	+2
Nov 6	at CHA	46%	109–110	L 107–108	✓correct	±0
Nov 4	vs LAL	36%	110–116	W 115–103	✗missed	+18
Nov 3	at BKN	29%	107–115	W 106–92	✗missed	+22
Nov 1	vs NYK	34%	108–115	L 98–128	✓correct	−23
Oct 30	at PHI	21%	103–115	W 105–95	✗missed	+22
Oct 28	at MIA	27%	105–114	L 98–106	✓correct	+1
Oct 26	vs BOS	25%	103–114	L 118–124	✓correct	+5
Oct 25	at CLE	25%	103–113	L 101–113	✓correct	−2
Oct 23	vs IND	39%	108–113	L 109–115	✓correct	−1

2023-24

9.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.5 to 11.3; 3rd smallest of 30

−1.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.4 to 1.0

12.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

76%

winner picked

82 games involving DET

14 / 29.2

actual / expected wins

gap −15.2

0.182

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DET win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at SAS	43%	109–110	L 95–123	✓correct	−27
Apr 12	at DAL	21%	104–118	W 107–89	✗missed	+32
Apr 11	vs CHI	45%	107–112	L 105–127	✓correct	−17
Apr 9	at PHI	22%	102–115	L 102–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	at BKN	25%	104–115	L 103–113	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	at MEM	47%	111–110	L 90–108	✗missed	−19
Apr 3	at ATL	19%	102–117	L 113–121	✓correct	+7
Apr 1	vs MEM	59%	111–109	L 108–110	✗missed	−4
Mar 29	at WAS	32%	109–116	W 96–87	✗missed	+16
Mar 27	at MIN	18%	104–120	L 91–106	✓correct	+1
Mar 25	at NYK	17%	96–113	L 99–124	✓correct	−8
Mar 24	vs NOP	29%	106–119	L 101–114	✓correct	±0
Mar 22	vs BOS	43%	106–112	L 102–129	✓correct	−21
Mar 20	vs IND	35%	109–119	L 103–122	✓correct	−9
Mar 18	at BOS	24%	106–118	L 94–119	✓correct	−13
Mar 17	vs MIA	47%	107–111	L 101–104	✓correct	+1
Mar 15	vs MIA	43%	107–113	L 95–108	✓correct	−7
Mar 13	vs TOR	65%	120–115	W 113–104	✓correct	+4
Mar 11	vs CHA	67%	112–106	W 114–97	✓correct	+11
Mar 9	vs DAL	45%	115–120	L 124–142	✓correct	−13
Mar 7	vs BKN	53%	109–110	W 118–112	✗missed	+7
Mar 5	at MIA	28%	106–115	L 110–118	✓correct	+1
Mar 3	at ORL	24%	104–116	L 91–113	✓correct	−10
Mar 1	vs CLE	39%	110–118	L 100–110	✓correct	−2
Feb 27	at CHI	19%	108–123	W 105–95	✗missed	+25
Feb 26	at NYK	15%	102–121	L 111–113	✓correct	+17
Feb 24	vs ORL	45%	113–118	L 109–112	✓correct	+2
Feb 22	at IND	22%	110–123	L 115–129	✓correct	−1
Feb 14	at PHX	18%	111–127	L 100–116	✓correct	±0
Feb 13	at LAL	18%	112–128	L 111–125	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	at LAC	16%	109–127	L 106–112	✓correct	+12
Feb 8	at POR	19%	111–126	W 128–122	✗missed	+21
Feb 7	at SAC	18%	111–127	W 133–120	✗missed	+29
Feb 4	vs ORL	43%	112–118	L 99–111	✓correct	−6
Feb 2	vs LAC	43%	115–121	L 125–136	✓correct	−5
Jan 31	at CLE	14%	105–125	L 121–128	✓correct	+13
Jan 28	vs OKC	47%	116–120	W 120–104	✗missed	+20
Jan 27	vs WAS	63%	121–117	L 104–118	✗missed	−18
Jan 24	vs CHA	63%	119–115	W 113–106	✓correct	+3
Jan 22	vs MIL	43%	118–124	L 113–122	✓correct	−3
Jan 20	vs MIL	41%	118–125	L 135–141	✓correct	+1
Jan 17	vs MIN	47%	115–119	L 117–124	✓correct	−3
Jan 15	at WAS	25%	114–125	W 129–117	✗missed	+23
Jan 12	vs HOU	41%	115–122	L 110–112	✓correct	+5
Jan 10	vs SAS	57%	119–118	L 108–130	✗missed	−23
Jan 9	vs SAC	45%	116–121	L 110–131	✓correct	−16
Jan 7	at DEN	16%	108–126	L 114–131	✓correct	+1
Jan 5	at GSW	21%	113–127	L 109–113	✓correct	+10
Jan 3	at UTA	22%	111–124	L 148–154	✓correct	+7
Jan 1	at HOU	22%	111–124	L 113–136	✓correct	−10
Dec 30	vs TOR	49%	116–119	W 129–127	✗missed	+5
Dec 28	at BOS	21%	110–124	L 122–128	✓correct	+8
Dec 26	vs BKN	43%	115–121	L 112–118	✓correct	±0
Dec 23	at BKN	21%	108–122	L 115–126	✓correct	+3
Dec 21	vs UTA	59%	120–118	L 111–119	✗missed	−10
Dec 18	at ATL	22%	112–125	L 124–130	✓correct	+7
Dec 16	at MIL	22%	112–125	L 114–146	✓correct	−19
Dec 15	at PHI	15%	108–127	L 92–124	✓correct	−13
Dec 13	vs PHI	39%	113–121	L 111–129	✓correct	−10
Dec 11	vs IND	33%	111–122	L 123–131	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	at ORL	18%	109–125	L 91–123	✓correct	−16
Dec 6	vs MEM	57%	114–113	L 102–116	✗missed	−15
Dec 2	vs CLE	43%	112–118	L 101–110	✓correct	−3
Nov 30	at NYK	18%	105–121	L 112–118	✓correct	+10
Nov 29	vs LAL	47%	114–118	L 107–133	✓correct	−22
Nov 27	vs WAS	57%	117–116	L 107–126	✗missed	−20
Nov 24	at IND	32%	117–124	L 113–136	✓correct	−16
Nov 20	vs DEN	45%	111–116	L 103–107	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	at TOR	25%	107–118	L 113–142	✓correct	−18
Nov 17	at CLE	30%	111–119	L 100–108	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	vs ATL	51%	115–117	L 120–126	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	at CHI	30%	108–116	L 108–119	✓correct	−3
Nov 10	vs PHI	47%	111–115	L 106–114	✓correct	−4
Nov 8	at MIL	30%	110–118	L 118–120	✓correct	+6
Nov 6	vs GSW	47%	112–116	L 109–120	✓correct	−7
Nov 5	vs PHX	57%	113–112	L 106–120	✗missed	−15
Nov 2	at NOP	35%	109–114	L 116–125	✓correct	−4
Nov 1	vs POR	59%	116–114	L 101–110	✗missed	−11
Oct 30	at OKC	32%	110–117	L 112–124	✓correct	−5
Oct 28	vs CHI	45%	110–115	W 118–102	✗missed	+21
Oct 27	at CHA	37%	111–115	W 111–99	✗missed	+16
Oct 25	at MIA	32%	104–111	L 102–103	✓correct	+6

2022-23

8.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.6 to 10.1; 2nd smallest of 30

−0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.2 to 1.9

11.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

82%

winner picked

82 games involving DET

17 / 25.4

actual / expected wins

gap −8.4

0.157

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DET win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	at CHI	13%	102–120	L 81–103	✓correct	−4
Apr 7	at IND	35%	114–120	W 122–115	✗missed	+13
Apr 5	vs BKN	35%	108–114	L 108–123	✓correct	−9
Apr 4	vs MIA	35%	108–114	L 105–118	✓correct	−7
Apr 2	at ORL	28%	109–118	L 102–128	✓correct	−17
Mar 31	at HOU	30%	107–115	L 115–121	✓correct	+2
Mar 29	at OKC	32%	108–115	L 106–107	✓correct	+6
Mar 27	vs MIL	35%	114–120	L 117–126	✓correct	−3
Mar 24	at TOR	14%	102–119	L 97–118	✓correct	−4
Mar 21	at ATL	14%	108–125	L 107–129	✓correct	−5
Mar 19	vs MIA	28%	111–120	L 100–112	✓correct	−3
Mar 16	vs DEN	16%	106–122	L 100–119	✓correct	−3
Mar 14	at WAS	22%	107–119	L 97–117	✓correct	−8
Mar 13	vs IND	30%	116–124	W 117–97	✗missed	+28
Mar 11	vs IND	35%	114–120	L 115–121	✓correct	±0
Mar 9	vs CHA	35%	111–117	L 103–113	✓correct	−4
Mar 7	vs WAS	28%	107–116	L 117–119	✓correct	+7
Mar 6	vs POR	32%	114–121	L 104–110	✓correct	+1
Mar 4	at CLE	8%	97–120	L 90–114	✓correct	−1
Mar 1	vs CHI	35%	106–112	L 115–117	✓correct	+4
Feb 27	at CHA	30%	110–118	L 106–117	✓correct	−3
Feb 25	vs TOR	37%	111–116	L 91–95	✓correct	+1
Feb 23	at ORL	32%	110–117	L 106–108	✓correct	+5
Feb 15	at BOS	32%	108–115	L 109–127	✓correct	−11
Feb 12	at TOR	22%	109–121	L 118–119	✓correct	+11
Feb 10	vs SAS	74%	121–111	W 138–131	✓correct	−3
Feb 8	at CLE	14%	104–121	L 85–113	✓correct	−11
Feb 6	vs BOS	32%	112–119	L 99–111	✓correct	−5
Feb 4	vs PHX	30%	114–122	L 100–116	✓correct	−8
Feb 3	vs CHA	45%	117–119	W 118–112	✗missed	+8
Jan 30	at DAL	26%	110–120	L 105–111	✓correct	+4
Jan 28	vs HOU	70%	119–111	L 114–117	✗missed	−11
Jan 26	at BKN	30%	109–117	W 130–122	✗missed	+16
Jan 23	vs MIL	35%	115–121	L 130–150	✓correct	−14
Jan 19	vs CHI	35%	118–124	L 108–126	✓correct	−12
Jan 15	vs NYK	26%	110–120	L 104–117	✓correct	−3
Jan 13	vs NOP	37%	115–120	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Jan 11	vs MIN	32%	114–121	W 135–118	✗missed	+24
Jan 10	at PHI	13%	106–124	L 116–147	✓correct	−13
Jan 8	vs PHI	37%	113–118	L 111–123	✓correct	−7
Jan 6	at SAS	45%	116–118	L 109–121	✓correct	−10
Jan 4	at GSW	30%	110–118	W 122–119	✗missed	+11
Jan 2	at POR	26%	112–122	L 106–135	✓correct	−19
Dec 31	at MIN	32%	113–120	W 116–104	✗missed	+19
Dec 30	at CHI	26%	111–121	L 118–132	✓correct	−4
Dec 28	vs ORL	42%	116–119	W 121–101	✗missed	+23
Dec 26	vs LAC	32%	109–116	L 131–142	✓correct	−4
Dec 23	at ATL	30%	111–119	L 105–130	✓correct	−17
Dec 21	at PHI	24%	105–116	L 93–113	✓correct	−9
Dec 20	vs UTA	45%	118–120	L 111–126	✓correct	−13
Dec 18	vs BKN	28%	109–118	L 121–124	✓correct	+6
Dec 16	vs SAC	30%	112–120	L 113–122	✓correct	−1
Dec 14	at CHA	45%	112–114	W 141–134	✗missed	+9
Dec 11	vs LAL	28%	112–121	L 117–124	✓correct	+2
Dec 9	at MEM	24%	108–119	L 103–114	✓correct	±0
Dec 7	at NOP	20%	107–120	L 98–104	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	at MIA	35%	107–113	W 116–96	✗missed	+26
Dec 4	vs MEM	30%	110–118	L 112–122	✓correct	−2
Dec 1	vs DAL	32%	109–116	W 131–125	✗missed	+13
Nov 29	vs NYK	37%	113–118	L 110–140	✓correct	−25
Nov 27	vs CLE	28%	109–118	L 94–102	✓correct	+1
Nov 25	at PHX	16%	102–118	L 102–108	✓correct	+10
Nov 23	at UTA	14%	106–123	W 125–116	✗missed	+26
Nov 22	at DEN	32%	109–116	W 110–108	✗missed	+9
Nov 20	at SAC	17%	107–122	L 129–137	✓correct	+7
Nov 18	at LAL	26%	107–117	L 121–128	✓correct	+3
Nov 17	at LAC	20%	103–116	L 91–96	✓correct	+8
Nov 14	vs TOR	37%	110–115	L 111–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 12	vs BOS	45%	109–111	L 108–117	✓correct	−7
Nov 11	at NYK	22%	104–116	L 112–121	✓correct	+3
Nov 9	at BOS	22%	107–119	L 112–128	✓correct	−4
Nov 7	vs OKC	55%	112–110	W 112–103	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	vs CLE	28%	107–116	L 88–112	✓correct	−15
Nov 2	at MIL	24%	104–115	L 91–116	✓correct	−14
Oct 31	at MIL	20%	104–117	L 108–110	✓correct	+11
Oct 30	vs GSW	30%	111–119	W 128–114	✗missed	+22
Oct 28	vs ATL	37%	110–115	L 112–136	✓correct	−19
Oct 26	vs ATL	37%	107–112	L 113–118	✓correct	±0
Oct 25	at WAS	32%	109–116	L 99–120	✓correct	−14
Oct 22	at IND	37%	113–118	L 115–124	✓correct	−4
Oct 21	at NYK	30%	103–111	L 106–130	✓correct	−16
Oct 19	vs ORL	55%	110–108	W 113–109	✓correct	+2

2022-23 to 2026-27

9.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.2 to 10.5; 1st smallest of 30

+0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.5 to 1.8

12.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

71%

winner picked

356 games involving DET

149 / 164.8

actual / expected wins

gap −15.8

0.200

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 356 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DET win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs LAL	61%	113–109	L 116–121	✗missed	−9
Nov 4	vs PHI	58%	108–106	L 106–112	✗missed	−8
Nov 2	at CHA	64%	111–106	W 124–91	✓correct	+28
Oct 30	at BKN	74%	117–108	W 110–94	✓correct	+7
Oct 28	vs CHA	56%	111–109	W 97–89	✓correct	+6
Oct 27	at NYK	47%	109–110	L 97–111	✓correct	−13
Oct 25	at PHI	62%	113–109	W 106–93	✓correct	+9
Oct 23	at MIA	56%	116–114	W 128–111	✓correct	+15
Oct 20	vs BOS	50%	107–108	W 121–113	✗missed	+9
May 17 PO	vs CLE	74%	109–100	L 94–125	✗missed	−40
May 15 PO	at CLE	36%	102–107	W 115–94	✗missed	+26
May 13 PO	vs CLE	67%	110–104	L 113–117	✗missed	−10
May 11 PO	at CLE	39%	105–109	L 103–112	✓correct	−5
May 9 PO	at CLE	44%	106–108	L 109–116	✓correct	−5
May 7 PO	vs CLE	71%	116–108	W 107–97	✓correct	+2
May 5 PO	vs CLE	59%	111–108	W 111–101	✓correct	+7
May 3 PO	vs ORL	78%	110–99	W 116–94	✓correct	+11
May 1 PO	at ORL	37%	109–114	W 93–79	✗missed	+19
Apr 29 PO	vs ORL	76%	113–103	W 116–109	✓correct	−3
Apr 27 PO	at ORL	45%	109–111	L 88–94	✓correct	−4
Apr 25 PO	at ORL	55%	112–110	L 105–113	✗missed	−10
Apr 22 PO	vs ORL	76%	115–105	W 98–83	✓correct	+5
Apr 19 PO	vs ORL	83%	117–103	L 101–112	✗missed	−25
Apr 12	at IND	87%	125–108	W 133–121	✓correct	−5
Apr 10	at CHA	56%	111–109	W 118–100	✓correct	+16
Apr 8	vs MIL	83%	118–104	W 137–111	✓correct	+12
Apr 6	at ORL	61%	117–113	L 107–123	✗missed	−20
Apr 4	at PHI	58%	119–116	W 116–93	✓correct	+20
Apr 2	vs MIN	67%	118–112	W 113–108	✓correct	−1
Mar 31	vs TOR	64%	118–113	W 127–116	✓correct	+6
Mar 30	at OKC	26%	110–119	L 110–114	✓correct	+5
Mar 28	at MIN	61%	115–111	W 109–87	✓correct	+18
Mar 26	vs NOP	69%	119–112	W 129–108	✓correct	+14
Mar 25	vs ATL	61%	118–114	L 129–130	✗missed	−5
Mar 23	vs LAL	53%	113–112	W 113–110	✓correct	+2
Mar 20	vs GSW	74%	116–107	W 115–101	✓correct	+5
Mar 19	at WAS	83%	125–111	W 117–95	✓correct	+8
Mar 17	at WAS	87%	126–109	W 130–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 15	at TOR	64%	114–109	L 108–119	✗missed	−16
Mar 13	vs MEM	78%	121–110	W 126–110	✓correct	+5
Mar 12	vs PHI	85%	125–110	W 131–109	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	at BKN	74%	117–108	W 138–100	✓correct	+29
Mar 8	at MIA	56%	117–115	L 110–121	✗missed	−13
Mar 7	vs BKN	82%	117–104	L 105–107	✗missed	−15
Mar 5	at SAS	39%	112–116	L 106–121	✓correct	−11
Mar 3	at CLE	56%	113–111	L 109–113	✗missed	−6
Mar 1	at ORL	66%	114–108	W 106–92	✓correct	+8
Feb 27	vs CLE	59%	115–112	W 122–119	✓correct	±0
Feb 25	vs OKC	67%	118–112	W 124–116	✓correct	+2
Feb 23	vs SAS	59%	118–115	L 103–114	✗missed	−14
Feb 21	at CHI	80%	125–113	W 126–110	✓correct	+4
Feb 19	at NYK	53%	112–111	W 126–111	✓correct	+14
Feb 11	at TOR	47%	115–116	W 113–95	✗missed	+19
Feb 9	at CHA	53%	114–113	W 110–104	✓correct	+5
Feb 6	vs NYK	61%	113–109	W 118–80	✓correct	+34
Feb 5	vs WAS	92%	126–105	L 117–126	✗missed	−30
Feb 3	vs DEN	61%	111–107	W 124–121	✓correct	−1
Feb 1	vs BKN	85%	117–102	W 130–77	✓correct	+38
Jan 30	at GSW	47%	114–115	W 131–124	✗missed	+8
Jan 29	at PHX	58%	111–108	L 96–114	✗missed	−21
Jan 27	at DEN	58%	111–108	W 109–107	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs SAC	76%	118–108	W 139–116	✓correct	+13
Jan 23	vs HOU	61%	110–106	L 104–111	✗missed	−11
Jan 21	at NOP	78%	119–108	W 112–104	✓correct	−3
Jan 19	vs BOS	53%	112–111	W 104–103	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	vs IND	83%	123–109	W 121–78	✓correct	+29
Jan 15	vs PHX	61%	114–110	W 108–105	✓correct	−1
Jan 10	vs LAC	61%	113–109	L 92–98	✗missed	−10
Jan 7	vs CHI	83%	124–110	W 108–93	✓correct	+1
Jan 5	vs NYK	64%	119–114	W 121–90	✓correct	+26
Jan 4	at CLE	53%	119–118	W 114–110	✓correct	+3
Jan 1	vs MIA	69%	121–114	L 112–118	✗missed	−13
Dec 30	at LAL	66%	117–111	W 128–106	✓correct	+16
Dec 28	at LAC	66%	117–111	L 99–112	✗missed	−19
Dec 26	at UTA	80%	127–115	L 129–131	✗missed	−14
Dec 23	at SAC	76%	122–112	W 136–127	✓correct	−1
Dec 22	at POR	64%	120–115	W 110–102	✓correct	+3
Dec 20	vs CHA	78%	122–111	W 112–86	✓correct	+15
Dec 18	at DAL	64%	120–115	L 114–116	✗missed	−7
Dec 15	at BOS	47%	115–116	W 112–105	✗missed	+8
Dec 12	vs ATL	67%	121–115	W 142–115	✓correct	+21
Dec 6	vs MIL	78%	123–112	W 124–112	✓correct	+1
Dec 5	vs POR	69%	121–114	W 122–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 3	at MIL	64%	119–114	L 109–113	✗missed	−9
Dec 1	vs ATL	64%	121–116	W 99–98	✓correct	−4
Nov 29	at MIA	41%	116–119	W 138–135	✗missed	+6
Nov 28	vs ORL	64%	119–114	L 109–112	✗missed	−8
Nov 26	at BOS	47%	114–115	L 114–117	✓correct	−2
Nov 24	at IND	69%	121–114	W 122–117	✓correct	−2
Nov 22	at MIL	66%	120–114	W 129–116	✓correct	+7
Nov 18	at ATL	47%	116–117	W 120–112	✗missed	+9
Nov 17	vs IND	78%	121–110	W 127–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 14	vs PHI	78%	124–113	W 114–105	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	vs CHI	56%	117–115	W 124–113	✓correct	+9
Nov 10	vs WAS	83%	123–109	W 137–135	✓correct	−12
Nov 9	at PHI	61%	120–116	W 111–108	✓correct	−1
Nov 7	at BKN	76%	120–110	W 125–107	✓correct	+8
Nov 5	vs UTA	78%	122–111	W 114–103	✓correct	±0
Nov 3	at MEM	58%	119–116	W 114–106	✓correct	+5
Oct 29	vs ORL	67%	114–108	W 135–116	✓correct	+13
Oct 27	vs CLE	44%	114–116	L 95–116	✓correct	−19
Oct 26	vs BOS	44%	108–110	W 119–113	✗missed	+8
Oct 24	at HOU	44%	110–112	W 115–111	✗missed	+6
Oct 22	at CHI	36%	113–118	L 111–115	✓correct	+1
May 1 PO	vs NYK	62%	107–103	L 113–116	✗missed	−7
Apr 29 PO	at NYK	33%	103–109	W 106–103	✗missed	+9
Apr 27 PO	vs NYK	64%	110–105	L 93–94	✗missed	−6
Apr 24 PO	vs NYK	62%	107–103	L 116–118	✗missed	−6
Apr 21 PO	at NYK	29%	103–111	W 100–94	✗missed	+14
Apr 19 PO	at NYK	25%	99–109	L 112–123	✓correct	−1
Apr 13	at MIL	54%	117–115	L 133–140	✗missed	−9
Apr 11	vs MIL	46%	115–117	L 119–125	✓correct	−4
Apr 10	vs NYK	57%	113–111	W 115–106	✓correct	+7
Apr 7	vs SAC	67%	117–111	L 117–127	✗missed	−16
Apr 5	vs MEM	67%	121–115	L 103–109	✗missed	−12
Apr 4	at TOR	64%	119–113	W 117–105	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	at OKC	18%	112–126	L 103–119	✓correct	−2
Mar 30	at MIN	31%	111–118	L 104–123	✓correct	−12
Mar 28	vs CLE	49%	115–116	W 133–122	✗missed	+12
Mar 25	vs SAS	79%	128–116	W 122–96	✓correct	+14
Mar 23	vs NOP	79%	122–110	W 136–130	✓correct	−6
Mar 21	at DAL	77%	123–111	L 117–123	✗missed	−18
Mar 19	at MIA	59%	116–112	W 116–113	✓correct	−1
Mar 17	at NOP	66%	121–114	W 127–81	✓correct	+39
Mar 15	vs OKC	49%	120–121	L 107–113	✓correct	−5
Mar 13	vs WAS	81%	123–110	L 125–129	✗missed	−17
Mar 11	vs WAS	79%	122–110	W 123–103	✓correct	+8
Mar 9	at POR	46%	117–118	W 119–112	✗missed	+8
Mar 8	at GSW	38%	114–118	L 110–115	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	at LAC	61%	118–113	L 115–123	✗missed	−13
Mar 3	at UTA	80%	125–111	W 134–106	✓correct	+14
Mar 1	vs BKN	75%	116–106	W 115–94	✓correct	+11
Feb 28	vs DEN	64%	122–117	L 119–134	✗missed	−20
Feb 26	vs BOS	49%	115–116	W 117–97	✗missed	+21
Feb 24	vs LAC	69%	122–115	W 106–97	✓correct	+2
Feb 23	at ATL	56%	121–118	W 148–143	✓correct	+2
Feb 21	at SAS	56%	120–117	W 125–110	✓correct	+12
Feb 12	at CHI	73%	124–114	W 128–110	✓correct	+8
Feb 11	at CHI	64%	120–114	W 132–92	✓correct	+34
Feb 9	vs CHA	85%	122–106	W 112–102	✓correct	−6
Feb 7	vs PHI	59%	118–115	W 125–112	✓correct	+10
Feb 5	vs CLE	46%	116–118	L 115–118	✓correct	−1
Feb 3	vs ATL	73%	120–111	L 130–132	✗missed	−11
Feb 2	vs CHI	73%	120–111	W 127–119	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	vs DAL	54%	116–115	W 117–102	✓correct	+14
Jan 29	at IND	31%	112–119	L 119–133	✓correct	−7
Jan 27	at CLE	33%	114–120	L 91–110	✓correct	−13
Jan 25	at ORL	59%	111–107	L 113–121	✗missed	−12
Jan 22	at ATL	46%	115–116	W 114–104	✗missed	+11
Jan 20	at HOU	33%	110–116	W 107–96	✗missed	+17
Jan 18	vs PHX	59%	115–112	L 121–125	✗missed	−7
Jan 16	vs IND	49%	113–114	L 100–111	✓correct	−10
Jan 13	at NYK	29%	109–117	W 124–119	✗missed	+13
Jan 11	vs TOR	77%	120–109	W 123–114	✓correct	−2
Jan 9	vs GSW	57%	114–112	L 104–107	✗missed	−5
Jan 8	at BKN	56%	111–108	W 113–98	✓correct	+12
Jan 6	vs POR	69%	119–112	W 118–115	✓correct	−4
Jan 4	vs MIN	46%	111–113	W 119–105	✗missed	+16
Jan 3	vs CHA	69%	119–112	W 98–94	✓correct	−3
Jan 1	vs ORL	54%	115–114	W 105–96	✓correct	+8
Dec 28	at DEN	33%	118–124	L 121–134	✓correct	−7
Dec 26	at SAC	31%	115–122	W 114–113	✗missed	+8
Dec 23	at LAL	31%	114–121	W 117–114	✗missed	+10
Dec 21	at PHX	31%	114–121	W 133–125	✗missed	+15
Dec 19	vs UTA	54%	113–112	L 119–126	✗missed	−8
Dec 16	vs MIA	39%	110–115	W 125–124	✗missed	+6
Dec 12	at BOS	23%	108–119	L 99–123	✓correct	−13
Dec 7	at NYK	19%	106–119	W 120–111	✗missed	+22
Dec 4	at BOS	19%	106–119	L 120–130	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	vs MIL	41%	110–114	L 107–128	✓correct	−17
Nov 30	vs PHI	73%	112–103	L 96–111	✗missed	−24
Nov 29	at IND	31%	111–118	W 130–106	✗missed	+31
Nov 27	at MEM	29%	110–118	L 111–131	✓correct	−12
Nov 25	vs TOR	67%	111–105	W 102–100	✓correct	−4
Nov 23	at ORL	27%	103–112	L 100–111	✓correct	−2
Nov 21	at CHA	54%	110–108	L 121–123	✗missed	−4
Nov 18	vs CHI	62%	119–115	L 112–122	✗missed	−14
Nov 17	at WAS	56%	115–112	W 124–104	✓correct	+17
Nov 15	at TOR	54%	110–108	W 99–95	✓correct	+2
Nov 13	at MIL	41%	107–110	L 120–127	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	vs MIA	54%	111–110	W 123–121	✓correct	+1
Nov 10	vs HOU	39%	108–113	L 99–101	✓correct	+3
Nov 8	vs ATL	49%	115–116	W 122–121	✗missed	+2
Nov 6	at CHA	46%	109–110	L 107–108	✓correct	±0
Nov 4	vs LAL	36%	110–116	W 115–103	✗missed	+18
Nov 3	at BKN	29%	107–115	W 106–92	✗missed	+22
Nov 1	vs NYK	34%	108–115	L 98–128	✓correct	−23
Oct 30	at PHI	21%	103–115	W 105–95	✗missed	+22
Oct 28	at MIA	27%	105–114	L 98–106	✓correct	+1
Oct 26	vs BOS	25%	103–114	L 118–124	✓correct	+5
Oct 25	at CLE	25%	103–113	L 101–113	✓correct	−2
Oct 23	vs IND	39%	108–113	L 109–115	✓correct	−1
Apr 14	at SAS	43%	109–110	L 95–123	✓correct	−27
Apr 12	at DAL	21%	104–118	W 107–89	✗missed	+32
Apr 11	vs CHI	45%	107–112	L 105–127	✓correct	−17
Apr 9	at PHI	22%	102–115	L 102–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	at BKN	25%	104–115	L 103–113	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	at MEM	47%	111–110	L 90–108	✗missed	−19
Apr 3	at ATL	19%	102–117	L 113–121	✓correct	+7
Apr 1	vs MEM	59%	111–109	L 108–110	✗missed	−4
Mar 29	at WAS	32%	109–116	W 96–87	✗missed	+16
Mar 27	at MIN	18%	104–120	L 91–106	✓correct	+1
Mar 25	at NYK	17%	96–113	L 99–124	✓correct	−8
Mar 24	vs NOP	29%	106–119	L 101–114	✓correct	±0
Mar 22	vs BOS	43%	106–112	L 102–129	✓correct	−21
Mar 20	vs IND	35%	109–119	L 103–122	✓correct	−9
Mar 18	at BOS	24%	106–118	L 94–119	✓correct	−13
Mar 17	vs MIA	47%	107–111	L 101–104	✓correct	+1
Mar 15	vs MIA	43%	107–113	L 95–108	✓correct	−7
Mar 13	vs TOR	65%	120–115	W 113–104	✓correct	+4
Mar 11	vs CHA	67%	112–106	W 114–97	✓correct	+11
Mar 9	vs DAL	45%	115–120	L 124–142	✓correct	−13
Mar 7	vs BKN	53%	109–110	W 118–112	✗missed	+7
Mar 5	at MIA	28%	106–115	L 110–118	✓correct	+1
Mar 3	at ORL	24%	104–116	L 91–113	✓correct	−10
Mar 1	vs CLE	39%	110–118	L 100–110	✓correct	−2
Feb 27	at CHI	19%	108–123	W 105–95	✗missed	+25
Feb 26	at NYK	15%	102–121	L 111–113	✓correct	+17
Feb 24	vs ORL	45%	113–118	L 109–112	✓correct	+2
Feb 22	at IND	22%	110–123	L 115–129	✓correct	−1
Feb 14	at PHX	18%	111–127	L 100–116	✓correct	±0
Feb 13	at LAL	18%	112–128	L 111–125	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	at LAC	16%	109–127	L 106–112	✓correct	+12
Feb 8	at POR	19%	111–126	W 128–122	✗missed	+21
Feb 7	at SAC	18%	111–127	W 133–120	✗missed	+29
Feb 4	vs ORL	43%	112–118	L 99–111	✓correct	−6
Feb 2	vs LAC	43%	115–121	L 125–136	✓correct	−5
Jan 31	at CLE	14%	105–125	L 121–128	✓correct	+13
Jan 28	vs OKC	47%	116–120	W 120–104	✗missed	+20
Jan 27	vs WAS	63%	121–117	L 104–118	✗missed	−18
Jan 24	vs CHA	63%	119–115	W 113–106	✓correct	+3
Jan 22	vs MIL	43%	118–124	L 113–122	✓correct	−3
Jan 20	vs MIL	41%	118–125	L 135–141	✓correct	+1
Jan 17	vs MIN	47%	115–119	L 117–124	✓correct	−3
Jan 15	at WAS	25%	114–125	W 129–117	✗missed	+23
Jan 12	vs HOU	41%	115–122	L 110–112	✓correct	+5
Jan 10	vs SAS	57%	119–118	L 108–130	✗missed	−23
Jan 9	vs SAC	45%	116–121	L 110–131	✓correct	−16
Jan 7	at DEN	16%	108–126	L 114–131	✓correct	+1
Jan 5	at GSW	21%	113–127	L 109–113	✓correct	+10
Jan 3	at UTA	22%	111–124	L 148–154	✓correct	+7
Jan 1	at HOU	22%	111–124	L 113–136	✓correct	−10
Dec 30	vs TOR	49%	116–119	W 129–127	✗missed	+5
Dec 28	at BOS	21%	110–124	L 122–128	✓correct	+8
Dec 26	vs BKN	43%	115–121	L 112–118	✓correct	±0
Dec 23	at BKN	21%	108–122	L 115–126	✓correct	+3
Dec 21	vs UTA	59%	120–118	L 111–119	✗missed	−10
Dec 18	at ATL	22%	112–125	L 124–130	✓correct	+7
Dec 16	at MIL	22%	112–125	L 114–146	✓correct	−19
Dec 15	at PHI	15%	108–127	L 92–124	✓correct	−13
Dec 13	vs PHI	39%	113–121	L 111–129	✓correct	−10
Dec 11	vs IND	33%	111–122	L 123–131	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	at ORL	18%	109–125	L 91–123	✓correct	−16
Dec 6	vs MEM	57%	114–113	L 102–116	✗missed	−15
Dec 2	vs CLE	43%	112–118	L 101–110	✓correct	−3
Nov 30	at NYK	18%	105–121	L 112–118	✓correct	+10
Nov 29	vs LAL	47%	114–118	L 107–133	✓correct	−22
Nov 27	vs WAS	57%	117–116	L 107–126	✗missed	−20
Nov 24	at IND	32%	117–124	L 113–136	✓correct	−16
Nov 20	vs DEN	45%	111–116	L 103–107	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	at TOR	25%	107–118	L 113–142	✓correct	−18
Nov 17	at CLE	30%	111–119	L 100–108	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	vs ATL	51%	115–117	L 120–126	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	at CHI	30%	108–116	L 108–119	✓correct	−3
Nov 10	vs PHI	47%	111–115	L 106–114	✓correct	−4
Nov 8	at MIL	30%	110–118	L 118–120	✓correct	+6
Nov 6	vs GSW	47%	112–116	L 109–120	✓correct	−7
Nov 5	vs PHX	57%	113–112	L 106–120	✗missed	−15
Nov 2	at NOP	35%	109–114	L 116–125	✓correct	−4
Nov 1	vs POR	59%	116–114	L 101–110	✗missed	−11
Oct 30	at OKC	32%	110–117	L 112–124	✓correct	−5
Oct 28	vs CHI	45%	110–115	W 118–102	✗missed	+21
Oct 27	at CHA	37%	111–115	W 111–99	✗missed	+16
Oct 25	at MIA	32%	104–111	L 102–103	✓correct	+6
Apr 9	at CHI	13%	102–120	L 81–103	✓correct	−4
Apr 7	at IND	35%	114–120	W 122–115	✗missed	+13
Apr 5	vs BKN	35%	108–114	L 108–123	✓correct	−9
Apr 4	vs MIA	35%	108–114	L 105–118	✓correct	−7
Apr 2	at ORL	28%	109–118	L 102–128	✓correct	−17
Mar 31	at HOU	30%	107–115	L 115–121	✓correct	+2
Mar 29	at OKC	32%	108–115	L 106–107	✓correct	+6
Mar 27	vs MIL	35%	114–120	L 117–126	✓correct	−3
Mar 24	at TOR	14%	102–119	L 97–118	✓correct	−4
Mar 21	at ATL	14%	108–125	L 107–129	✓correct	−5
Mar 19	vs MIA	28%	111–120	L 100–112	✓correct	−3
Mar 16	vs DEN	16%	106–122	L 100–119	✓correct	−3
Mar 14	at WAS	22%	107–119	L 97–117	✓correct	−8
Mar 13	vs IND	30%	116–124	W 117–97	✗missed	+28
Mar 11	vs IND	35%	114–120	L 115–121	✓correct	±0
Mar 9	vs CHA	35%	111–117	L 103–113	✓correct	−4
Mar 7	vs WAS	28%	107–116	L 117–119	✓correct	+7
Mar 6	vs POR	32%	114–121	L 104–110	✓correct	+1
Mar 4	at CLE	8%	97–120	L 90–114	✓correct	−1
Mar 1	vs CHI	35%	106–112	L 115–117	✓correct	+4
Feb 27	at CHA	30%	110–118	L 106–117	✓correct	−3
Feb 25	vs TOR	37%	111–116	L 91–95	✓correct	+1
Feb 23	at ORL	32%	110–117	L 106–108	✓correct	+5
Feb 15	at BOS	32%	108–115	L 109–127	✓correct	−11
Feb 12	at TOR	22%	109–121	L 118–119	✓correct	+11
Feb 10	vs SAS	74%	121–111	W 138–131	✓correct	−3
Feb 8	at CLE	14%	104–121	L 85–113	✓correct	−11
Feb 6	vs BOS	32%	112–119	L 99–111	✓correct	−5
Feb 4	vs PHX	30%	114–122	L 100–116	✓correct	−8
Feb 3	vs CHA	45%	117–119	W 118–112	✗missed	+8
Jan 30	at DAL	26%	110–120	L 105–111	✓correct	+4
Jan 28	vs HOU	70%	119–111	L 114–117	✗missed	−11
Jan 26	at BKN	30%	109–117	W 130–122	✗missed	+16
Jan 23	vs MIL	35%	115–121	L 130–150	✓correct	−14
Jan 19	vs CHI	35%	118–124	L 108–126	✓correct	−12
Jan 15	vs NYK	26%	110–120	L 104–117	✓correct	−3
Jan 13	vs NOP	37%	115–120	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Jan 11	vs MIN	32%	114–121	W 135–118	✗missed	+24
Jan 10	at PHI	13%	106–124	L 116–147	✓correct	−13
Jan 8	vs PHI	37%	113–118	L 111–123	✓correct	−7
Jan 6	at SAS	45%	116–118	L 109–121	✓correct	−10
Jan 4	at GSW	30%	110–118	W 122–119	✗missed	+11
Jan 2	at POR	26%	112–122	L 106–135	✓correct	−19
Dec 31	at MIN	32%	113–120	W 116–104	✗missed	+19
Dec 30	at CHI	26%	111–121	L 118–132	✓correct	−4
Dec 28	vs ORL	42%	116–119	W 121–101	✗missed	+23
Dec 26	vs LAC	32%	109–116	L 131–142	✓correct	−4
Dec 23	at ATL	30%	111–119	L 105–130	✓correct	−17
Dec 21	at PHI	24%	105–116	L 93–113	✓correct	−9
Dec 20	vs UTA	45%	118–120	L 111–126	✓correct	−13
Dec 18	vs BKN	28%	109–118	L 121–124	✓correct	+6
Dec 16	vs SAC	30%	112–120	L 113–122	✓correct	−1
Dec 14	at CHA	45%	112–114	W 141–134	✗missed	+9
Dec 11	vs LAL	28%	112–121	L 117–124	✓correct	+2
Dec 9	at MEM	24%	108–119	L 103–114	✓correct	±0
Dec 7	at NOP	20%	107–120	L 98–104	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	at MIA	35%	107–113	W 116–96	✗missed	+26
Dec 4	vs MEM	30%	110–118	L 112–122	✓correct	−2
Dec 1	vs DAL	32%	109–116	W 131–125	✗missed	+13
Nov 29	vs NYK	37%	113–118	L 110–140	✓correct	−25
Nov 27	vs CLE	28%	109–118	L 94–102	✓correct	+1
Nov 25	at PHX	16%	102–118	L 102–108	✓correct	+10
Nov 23	at UTA	14%	106–123	W 125–116	✗missed	+26
Nov 22	at DEN	32%	109–116	W 110–108	✗missed	+9
Nov 20	at SAC	17%	107–122	L 129–137	✓correct	+7
Nov 18	at LAL	26%	107–117	L 121–128	✓correct	+3
Nov 17	at LAC	20%	103–116	L 91–96	✓correct	+8
Nov 14	vs TOR	37%	110–115	L 111–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 12	vs BOS	45%	109–111	L 108–117	✓correct	−7
Nov 11	at NYK	22%	104–116	L 112–121	✓correct	+3
Nov 9	at BOS	22%	107–119	L 112–128	✓correct	−4
Nov 7	vs OKC	55%	112–110	W 112–103	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	vs CLE	28%	107–116	L 88–112	✓correct	−15
Nov 2	at MIL	24%	104–115	L 91–116	✓correct	−14
Oct 31	at MIL	20%	104–117	L 108–110	✓correct	+11
Oct 30	vs GSW	30%	111–119	W 128–114	✗missed	+22
Oct 28	vs ATL	37%	110–115	L 112–136	✓correct	−19
Oct 26	vs ATL	37%	107–112	L 113–118	✓correct	±0
Oct 25	at WAS	32%	109–116	L 99–120	✓correct	−14
Oct 22	at IND	37%	113–118	L 115–124	✓correct	−4
Oct 21	at NYK	30%	103–111	L 106–130	✓correct	−16
Oct 19	vs ORL	55%	110–108	W 113–109	✓correct	+2

Surprise games

All DET surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected DET wins

14%DET beat UTA125–116Nov 23, 2022-23 · forecast UTA123–106 · missed margin by 26
18%DET beat SAC133–120Feb 7, 2023-24 · forecast SAC127–111 · missed margin by 29
19%DET beat NYK120–111Dec 7, 2024-25 · forecast NYK119–106 · missed margin by 22
19%DET beat CHI105–95Feb 27, 2023-24 · forecast CHI123–108 · missed margin by 25
19%DET beat POR128–122Feb 8, 2023-24 · forecast POR126–111 · missed margin by 21

Most unexpected DET losses

8%WAS beat DET126–117Feb 5, 2025-26 · forecast DET126–105 · missed margin by 30
17%ORL beat DET112–101Apr 19, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast DET117–103 · missed margin by 25
19%BKN beat DET107–105Mar 7, 2025-26 · forecast DET117–104 · missed margin by 15
19%WAS beat DET129–125Mar 13, 2024-25 · forecast DET123–110 · missed margin by 17
20%UTA beat DET131–129Dec 26, 2025-26 · forecast DET127–115 · missed margin by 14

Largest margin misses

26%CLE beat DET125–94May 17, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast DET109–100 · missed margin by 40
66%DET beat NOP127–81Mar 17, 2024-25 · forecast DET121–114 · missed margin by 39
85%DET beat BKN130–77Feb 1, 2025-26 · forecast DET117–102 · missed margin by 38
61%DET beat NYK118–80Feb 6, 2025-26 · forecast DET113–109 · missed margin by 34
64%DET beat CHI132–92Feb 11, 2024-25 · forecast DET120–114 · missed margin by 34

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected DET wins

Most unexpected DET losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions