Western Conference · 2026-27

Phoenix Suns PHX

3–5

2026-27 record

1487

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

114.6

Offensive rating

last 10 games

121.4

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

98.7

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded PHX game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 237 of 355 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of PHX's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. PHX ranks 17 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 9:00 PM ET

SAS San Antonio Spurs 8–2 –

@PHX Phoenix Suns 3–5 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 10 9:00 PM ET

LAC Los Angeles Clippers 2–7 –

@PHX Phoenix Suns 3–5 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 12 9:00 PM ET

CHA Charlotte Hornets 3–7 –

@PHX Phoenix Suns 3–5 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked PHX games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 8 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

9.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 4.1 to 18.3

−5.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -14.8 to 2.1

15.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

88%

winner picked

8 games involving PHX

3 / 3.8

actual / expected wins

gap −0.8

0.203

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 8 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	PHX win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs HOU	32%	111–117	W 102–99	✗missed	+9
Nov 5	vs ORL	64%	117–112	W 117–104	✓correct	+8
Nov 4	vs POR	47%	112–114	L 119–132	✓correct	−11
Nov 2	at GSW	47%	113–114	L 113–116	✓correct	−2
Oct 30	vs DEN	47%	113–114	L 120–127	✓correct	−6
Oct 26	at OKC	24%	105–115	L 114–125	✓correct	−1
Oct 24	vs GSW	69%	116–109	W 131–122	✓correct	+2
Oct 21	at POR	47%	113–114	L 83–124	✓correct	−40

2025-26

10.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.3 to 12.5; 12th smallest of 30

+0.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.1 to 2.9

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

66%

winner picked

86 games involving PHX

45 / 43.7

actual / expected wins

gap +1.3

0.207

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 86 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	PHX win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 27 PO	vs OKC	40%	108–112	L 122–131	✓correct	−5
Apr 25 PO	vs OKC	32%	105–112	L 109–121	✓correct	−5
Apr 22 PO	at OKC	19%	101–114	L 107–120	✓correct	±0
Apr 19 PO	at OKC	22%	105–116	L 84–119	✓correct	−24
Apr 12	at OKC	13%	104–121	W 135–103	✗missed	+49
Apr 10	at LAL	47%	113–114	L 73–101	✓correct	−27
Apr 8	vs DAL	89%	127–109	W 112–107	✓correct	−13
Apr 7	vs HOU	47%	113–114	L 105–119	✓correct	−13
Apr 5	at CHI	71%	122–114	W 120–110	✓correct	+2
Apr 2	at CHA	39%	110–114	L 107–127	✓correct	−16
Mar 31	at ORL	47%	116–117	L 111–115	✓correct	−3
Mar 30	at MEM	74%	119–110	W 131–105	✓correct	+17
Mar 28	vs UTA	83%	124–110	W 134–109	✓correct	+11
Mar 24	vs DEN	53%	117–116	L 123–125	✗missed	−3
Mar 22	vs TOR	44%	113–115	W 120–98	✗missed	+24
Mar 21	vs MIL	74%	116–107	L 105–108	✗missed	−12
Mar 19	at SAS	24%	111–121	L 100–101	✓correct	+9
Mar 17	at MIN	53%	112–111	L 104–116	✗missed	−13
Mar 16	at BOS	36%	107–112	L 112–120	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	at TOR	47%	108–109	L 115–122	✓correct	−6
Mar 12	at IND	76%	115–105	W 123–108	✓correct	+5
Mar 10	at MIL	61%	112–108	W 129–114	✓correct	+11
Mar 8	vs CHA	29%	105–113	W 111–99	✗missed	+20
Mar 6	vs NOP	47%	110–111	W 118–116	✗missed	+3
Mar 5	vs CHI	59%	111–108	L 103–105	✗missed	−5
Mar 3	at SAC	61%	112–108	W 114–103	✓correct	+7
Feb 26	vs LAL	34%	106–112	W 113–110	✗missed	+9
Feb 24	vs BOS	36%	102–107	L 81–97	✓correct	−11
Feb 22	vs POR	53%	117–116	L 77–92	✗missed	−16
Feb 21	vs ORL	47%	113–114	W 113–110	✗missed	+4
Feb 19	at SAS	31%	110–117	L 94–121	✓correct	−20
Feb 11	vs OKC	39%	109–113	L 109–136	✓correct	−23
Feb 10	vs DAL	69%	120–113	W 120–111	✓correct	+2
Feb 7	vs PHI	56%	113–111	L 103–109	✗missed	−8
Feb 5	vs GSW	67%	120–114	L 97–101	✗missed	−10
Feb 3	at POR	53%	111–110	W 130–125	✓correct	+4
Feb 1	vs LAC	56%	111–109	L 93–117	✗missed	−26
Jan 30	vs CLE	56%	113–111	W 126–113	✓correct	+11
Jan 29	vs DET	42%	108–111	W 114–96	✗missed	+21
Jan 27	vs BKN	76%	114–104	W 106–102	✓correct	−6
Jan 25	vs MIA	67%	118–112	L 102–111	✗missed	−15
Jan 23	at ATL	61%	117–113	L 103–110	✗missed	−11
Jan 20	at PHI	53%	113–112	W 116–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 19	at BKN	76%	116–106	W 126–117	✓correct	−1
Jan 17	at NYK	53%	114–113	W 106–99	✓correct	+6
Jan 15	at DET	39%	110–114	L 105–108	✓correct	+1
Jan 13	at MIA	53%	117–116	L 121–127	✗missed	−7
Jan 11	vs WAS	82%	122–109	W 112–93	✓correct	+6
Jan 9	vs NYK	64%	119–114	W 112–107	✓correct	±0
Jan 7	at MEM	58%	119–116	W 117–98	✓correct	+16
Jan 5	at HOU	44%	111–113	L 97–100	✓correct	−1
Jan 4	vs OKC	59%	117–114	W 108–105	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	vs SAC	80%	119–107	W 129–102	✓correct	+15
Dec 31	at CLE	47%	118–119	L 113–129	✓correct	−15
Dec 29	at WAS	71%	120–112	W 115–101	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	at NOP	58%	118–115	W 123–114	✓correct	+6
Dec 26	at NOP	58%	120–117	W 115–108	✓correct	+4
Dec 23	vs LAL	56%	116–114	W 132–108	✓correct	+22
Dec 20	at GSW	36%	109–114	L 116–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 18	vs GSW	47%	114–115	W 99–98	✗missed	+2
Dec 14	vs LAL	53%	115–114	L 114–116	✗missed	−3
Dec 10	at OKC	19%	110–123	L 89–138	✓correct	−36
Dec 8	at MIN	29%	112–120	W 108–105	✗missed	+11
Dec 5	at HOU	31%	112–119	L 98–117	✓correct	−12
Dec 1	at LAL	41%	116–119	W 125–108	✗missed	+20
Nov 29	vs DEN	56%	118–116	L 112–130	✗missed	−20
Nov 28	at OKC	17%	109–123	L 119–123	✓correct	+10
Nov 26	at SAC	66%	120–114	W 112–100	✓correct	+6
Nov 24	vs HOU	42%	111–114	L 92–114	✓correct	−19
Nov 23	vs SAS	71%	121–113	W 111–102	✓correct	+1
Nov 21	vs MIN	47%	117–118	W 114–113	✗missed	+2
Nov 18	at POR	53%	120–119	W 127–110	✓correct	+16
Nov 16	vs ATL	53%	117–116	L 122–124	✗missed	−3
Nov 13	vs IND	74%	120–111	W 133–98	✓correct	+26
Nov 12	at DAL	56%	117–115	W 123–114	✓correct	+7
Nov 10	vs NOP	78%	122–111	W 121–98	✓correct	+12
Nov 8	at LAC	47%	114–115	W 114–103	✗missed	+12
Nov 6	vs LAC	53%	113–112	W 115–102	✓correct	+12
Nov 4	at GSW	31%	114–121	L 107–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs SAS	39%	114–118	W 130–118	✗missed	+16
Oct 31	vs UTA	56%	119–117	W 118–96	✓correct	+20
Oct 29	vs MEM	42%	115–118	L 113–114	✓correct	+2
Oct 27	at UTA	56%	116–114	L 134–138	✗missed	−6
Oct 25	at DEN	29%	110–118	L 111–133	✓correct	−14
Oct 24	at LAC	31%	109–116	L 102–129	✓correct	−20
Oct 22	vs SAC	42%	113–116	W 120–116	✗missed	+7

2024-25

9.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.1 to 10.9; 2nd smallest of 30

−2.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.4 to 0.1

12.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

73%

winner picked

82 games involving PHX

36 / 39.2

actual / expected wins

gap −3.2

0.192

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	PHX win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	at SAC	29%	108–116	L 98–109	✓correct	−3
Apr 11	vs SAS	54%	112–111	W 117–98	✓correct	+18
Apr 9	vs OKC	29%	109–118	L 112–125	✓correct	−4
Apr 8	vs GSW	36%	111–117	L 95–133	✓correct	−32
Apr 6	at NYK	27%	107–116	L 98–112	✓correct	−5
Apr 4	at BOS	23%	107–118	L 103–123	✓correct	−9
Apr 1	at MIL	36%	109–114	L 123–133	✓correct	−5
Mar 30	vs HOU	41%	110–114	L 109–148	✓correct	−35
Mar 28	at MIN	38%	111–115	L 109–124	✓correct	−11
Mar 26	vs BOS	23%	105–117	L 102–132	✓correct	−18
Mar 24	vs MIL	54%	114–113	W 108–106	✓correct	+1
Mar 21	vs CLE	34%	111–118	W 123–112	✗missed	+18
Mar 19	vs CHI	57%	117–115	W 127–121	✓correct	+4
Mar 17	vs TOR	73%	118–109	W 129–89	✓correct	+31
Mar 16	at LAL	38%	111–115	L 96–107	✓correct	−7
Mar 14	vs SAC	41%	113–117	W 122–106	✗missed	+20
Mar 12	at HOU	27%	111–120	L 104–111	✓correct	+2
Mar 10	at MEM	33%	117–123	L 118–120	✓correct	+4
Mar 9	at DAL	54%	117–115	W 125–116	✓correct	+7
Mar 7	at DEN	25%	114–124	L 141–149	✓correct	+2
Mar 4	vs LAC	54%	117–116	W 119–117	✓correct	+1
Mar 2	vs MIN	46%	119–121	L 98–116	✓correct	−16
Feb 28	vs NOP	67%	123–117	W 125–108	✓correct	+11
Feb 27	vs NOP	67%	121–115	L 116–124	✗missed	−14
Feb 25	at MEM	23%	113–124	L 148–151	✓correct	+8
Feb 23	at TOR	61%	116–111	L 109–127	✗missed	−23
Feb 22	at CHI	61%	120–115	W 121–117	✓correct	−1
Feb 20	at SAS	41%	116–119	L 109–120	✓correct	−8
Feb 12	at HOU	33%	109–115	L 111–119	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	vs MEM	39%	116–121	L 112–119	✓correct	−2
Feb 8	vs DEN	46%	115–117	L 105–122	✓correct	−15
Feb 7	vs UTA	75%	122–112	W 135–127	✓correct	−2
Feb 5	at OKC	23%	112–123	L 109–140	✓correct	−20
Feb 3	at POR	51%	113–112	L 119–121	✗missed	−3
Feb 1	at POR	54%	113–111	L 108–127	✗missed	−21
Jan 31	at GSW	43%	112–114	W 130–105	✗missed	+27
Jan 29	vs MIN	64%	115–110	L 113–121	✗missed	−13
Jan 27	vs LAC	49%	112–113	W 111–109	✗missed	+3
Jan 25	vs WAS	79%	122–110	W 119–109	✓correct	−2
Jan 22	at BKN	71%	116–107	W 108–84	✓correct	+15
Jan 20	at CLE	29%	115–123	L 92–118	✓correct	−18
Jan 18	at DET	41%	112–115	W 125–121	✗missed	+7
Jan 16	at WAS	61%	119–114	W 130–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 14	at ATL	46%	117–118	L 117–122	✓correct	−4
Jan 12	vs CHA	69%	113–106	W 120–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 11	vs UTA	67%	113–107	W 114–106	✓correct	+2
Jan 9	vs ATL	57%	117–115	W 123–115	✓correct	+6
Jan 7	at CHA	51%	113–112	L 104–115	✗missed	−12
Jan 6	at PHI	43%	111–113	W 109–99	✗missed	+12
Jan 4	at IND	38%	113–117	L 108–126	✓correct	−14
Dec 31	vs MEM	46%	118–120	L 112–117	✓correct	−3
Dec 28	at GSW	36%	108–113	L 105–109	✓correct	+1
Dec 27	vs DAL	49%	115–116	L 89–98	✓correct	−8
Dec 25	vs DEN	39%	116–121	W 110–100	✗missed	+15
Dec 23	at DEN	29%	116–124	L 90–117	✓correct	−19
Dec 21	vs DET	69%	121–114	L 125–133	✗missed	−15
Dec 19	vs IND	62%	121–117	L 111–120	✗missed	−13
Dec 15	vs POR	77%	120–109	W 116–109	✓correct	−4
Dec 13	at UTA	56%	116–113	W 134–126	✓correct	+5
Dec 8	at ORL	38%	106–110	L 110–115	✓correct	−1
Dec 7	at MIA	31%	106–113	L 111–121	✓correct	−3
Dec 5	at NOP	59%	114–110	L 124–126	✗missed	−6
Dec 3	vs SAS	57%	116–114	W 104–93	✓correct	+9
Nov 30	vs GSW	54%	117–116	W 113–105	✓correct	+7
Nov 27	vs BKN	71%	115–107	L 117–127	✗missed	−18
Nov 26	vs LAL	54%	114–113	W 127–100	✓correct	+26
Nov 20	vs NYK	39%	108–113	L 122–138	✓correct	−11
Nov 18	vs ORL	41%	108–112	L 99–109	✓correct	−6
Nov 17	at MIN	38%	108–112	L 117–120	✓correct	+1
Nov 15	at OKC	21%	109–121	L 83–99	✓correct	−4
Nov 13	at SAC	33%	109–115	L 104–127	✓correct	−17
Nov 12	at UTA	61%	116–111	W 120–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 10	vs SAC	57%	114–112	L 118–127	✗missed	−11
Nov 8	at DAL	41%	110–113	W 114–113	✗missed	+4
Nov 6	vs MIA	67%	112–106	W 115–112	✓correct	−3
Nov 4	vs PHI	67%	113–107	W 118–116	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs POR	81%	118–105	W 103–97	✓correct	−7
Oct 31	at LAC	43%	107–109	W 125–119	✗missed	+8
Oct 28	vs LAL	57%	113–111	W 109–105	✓correct	+2
Oct 26	vs DAL	46%	106–108	W 114–102	✗missed	+14
Oct 25	at LAL	38%	110–114	L 116–123	✓correct	−3
Oct 23	at LAC	38%	106–110	W 116–113	✗missed	+7

2023-24

9.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.6 to 11.0; 1st smallest of 30

+0.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.4 to 2.7

11.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

62%

winner picked

86 games involving PHX

49 / 45.6

actual / expected wins

gap +3.4

0.243

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 86 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	PHX win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 28 PO	vs MIN	53%	108–109	L 116–122	✓correct	−5
Apr 26 PO	vs MIN	59%	108–106	L 109–126	✗missed	−19
Apr 23 PO	at MIN	34%	106–112	L 93–105	✓correct	−6
Apr 20 PO	at MIN	27%	105–115	L 95–120	✓correct	−15
Apr 14	at MIN	35%	109–114	W 125–106	✗missed	+24
Apr 12	at SAC	43%	109–110	W 108–107	✗missed	+2
Apr 10	at LAC	51%	112–109	W 124–108	✓correct	+13
Apr 9	vs LAC	70%	115–107	L 92–105	✗missed	−21
Apr 7	vs NOP	67%	112–106	L 105–113	✗missed	−14
Apr 5	vs MIN	61%	108–105	W 97–87	✓correct	+7
Apr 3	vs CLE	57%	111–110	W 122–101	✓correct	+20
Apr 1	at NOP	35%	106–111	W 124–111	✗missed	+18
Mar 29	at OKC	39%	110–113	L 103–128	✓correct	−22
Mar 27	at DEN	35%	108–113	W 104–97	✗missed	+12
Mar 25	at SAS	63%	117–108	L 102–104	✗missed	−11
Mar 23	at SAS	55%	116–111	W 131–106	✓correct	+20
Mar 21	vs ATL	70%	116–108	W 128–115	✓correct	+5
Mar 20	vs PHI	59%	110–108	W 115–102	✓correct	+11
Mar 17	at MIL	37%	107–111	L 129–140	✓correct	−7
Mar 15	at CHA	55%	112–107	W 107–96	✓correct	+6
Mar 14	at BOS	37%	108–112	L 112–127	✓correct	−11
Mar 11	at CLE	49%	112–110	W 117–111	✓correct	+4
Mar 9	vs BOS	49%	109–112	L 107–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 7	vs TOR	67%	117–111	W 120–113	✓correct	+1
Mar 5	at DEN	28%	110–119	W 117–107	✗missed	+19
Mar 3	vs OKC	53%	113–114	L 110–118	✓correct	−7
Mar 2	vs HOU	63%	118–114	L 109–118	✗missed	−13
Feb 29	vs HOU	65%	121–116	W 110–105	✓correct	±0
Feb 25	vs LAL	59%	119–117	W 123–113	✓correct	+8
Feb 23	at HOU	49%	119–117	L 110–114	✗missed	−6
Feb 22	at DAL	39%	116–119	L 113–123	✓correct	−7
Feb 14	vs DET	82%	127–111	W 116–100	✓correct	±0
Feb 13	vs SAC	67%	120–114	W 130–125	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at GSW	41%	114–116	L 112–113	✓correct	+1
Feb 8	vs UTA	61%	119–116	W 129–115	✓correct	+11
Feb 6	vs MIL	59%	119–117	W 114–106	✓correct	+6
Feb 4	at WAS	65%	122–112	W 140–112	✓correct	+18
Feb 2	at ATL	57%	120–114	L 120–129	✗missed	−15
Jan 31	at BKN	53%	113–109	W 136–120	✓correct	+12
Jan 29	at MIA	55%	115–110	W 118–105	✓correct	+8
Jan 28	at ORL	53%	112–108	L 98–113	✗missed	−19
Jan 26	at IND	43%	115–116	L 131–133	✓correct	−1
Jan 24	at DAL	47%	116–115	W 132–109	✓correct	+22
Jan 22	vs CHI	59%	116–114	W 115–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 21	vs IND	67%	121–115	W 117–110	✓correct	+1
Jan 19	at NOP	39%	108–111	W 123–109	✗missed	+17
Jan 16	vs SAC	57%	117–116	W 119–117	✓correct	+1
Jan 14	at POR	61%	119–111	W 127–116	✓correct	+3
Jan 11	at LAL	43%	116–117	W 127–109	✗missed	+19
Jan 8	at LAC	37%	112–116	L 111–138	✓correct	−23
Jan 7	vs MEM	68%	118–111	L 115–121	✗missed	−13
Jan 5	vs MIA	57%	116–115	W 113–97	✓correct	+15
Jan 3	vs LAC	51%	113–115	L 122–131	✓correct	−7
Jan 1	vs POR	76%	124–112	W 109–88	✓correct	+9
Dec 31	vs ORL	59%	117–115	W 112–107	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	vs CHA	76%	120–108	W 133–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 27	at HOU	35%	111–116	W 129–113	✗missed	+21
Dec 25	vs DAL	61%	118–115	L 114–128	✗missed	−17
Dec 22	at SAC	39%	117–120	L 105–120	✓correct	−12
Dec 19	at POR	51%	115–112	L 104–109	✗missed	−8
Dec 17	vs WAS	72%	121–112	W 112–108	✓correct	−5
Dec 15	vs NYK	51%	113–115	L 122–139	✓correct	−15
Dec 13	vs BKN	63%	112–108	L 112–116	✗missed	−8
Dec 12	vs GSW	49%	114–117	W 119–116	✗missed	+6
Dec 8	vs SAC	51%	115–117	L 106–114	✓correct	−6
Dec 5	at LAL	49%	113–111	L 103–106	✗missed	−5
Dec 2	vs MEM	65%	109–104	W 116–109	✓correct	+2
Dec 1	vs DEN	51%	110–112	L 111–119	✓correct	−6
Nov 29	at TOR	49%	112–110	L 105–112	✗missed	−9
Nov 26	at NYK	39%	106–109	W 116–113	✗missed	+6
Nov 24	at MEM	47%	111–110	W 110–89	✓correct	+20
Nov 22	vs GSW	57%	116–115	W 123–115	✓correct	+7
Nov 21	vs POR	76%	114–102	W 120–107	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	at UTA	43%	113–114	W 140–137	✗missed	+4
Nov 17	at UTA	47%	116–115	W 131–128	✓correct	+2
Nov 15	vs MIN	53%	110–111	W 133–115	✗missed	+19
Nov 12	vs OKC	61%	116–113	L 99–111	✗missed	−15
Nov 10	vs LAL	57%	112–111	L 119–122	✗missed	−4
Nov 8	at CHI	41%	110–112	W 116–115	✗missed	+3
Nov 5	at DET	43%	112–113	W 120–106	✗missed	+15
Nov 4	at PHI	30%	105–113	L 100–112	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs SAS	68%	119–112	L 121–132	✗missed	−18
Oct 31	vs SAS	72%	120–111	L 114–115	✗missed	−10
Oct 28	vs UTA	67%	119–113	W 126–104	✓correct	+16
Oct 26	at LAL	41%	114–116	L 95–100	✓correct	−3
Oct 24	at GSW	37%	112–116	W 108–104	✗missed	+8

2022-23

10.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.3 to 12.3; 19th smallest of 30

−0.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.0 to 1.6

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

65%

winner picked

93 games involving PHX

51 / 51.7

actual / expected wins

gap −0.7

0.226

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 93 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	PHX win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 11 PO	vs DEN	78%	111–99	L 100–125	✗missed	−37
May 9 PO	at DEN	17%	101–116	L 102–118	✓correct	−1
May 7 PO	vs DEN	65%	111–105	W 129–124	✓correct	−1
May 5 PO	vs DEN	63%	109–104	W 121–114	✓correct	+2
May 1 PO	at DEN	26%	103–113	L 87–97	✓correct	±0
Apr 29 PO	at DEN	32%	106–113	L 107–125	✓correct	−11
Apr 25 PO	vs LAC	74%	116–106	W 136–130	✓correct	−4
Apr 22 PO	at LAC	37%	109–114	W 112–100	✗missed	+17
Apr 20 PO	at LAC	37%	111–116	W 129–124	✗missed	+10
Apr 18 PO	vs LAC	70%	120–112	W 123–109	✓correct	+6
Apr 16 PO	vs LAC	72%	117–108	L 110–115	✗missed	−14
Apr 9	vs LAC	58%	115–112	L 114–119	✗missed	−8
Apr 7	at LAL	28%	115–124	L 107–121	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs DEN	70%	116–108	W 119–115	✓correct	−4
Apr 4	vs SAS	87%	125–107	W 115–94	✓correct	+3
Apr 2	at OKC	58%	118–115	W 128–118	✓correct	+7
Mar 31	vs DEN	53%	115–114	W 100–93	✓correct	+6
Mar 29	vs MIN	60%	119–115	W 107–100	✓correct	+3
Mar 27	at UTA	55%	124–122	W 117–103	✓correct	+12
Mar 25	vs PHI	42%	114–117	W 125–105	✗missed	+23
Mar 24	at SAC	40%	118–122	L 127–135	✓correct	−4
Mar 22	at LAL	47%	113–114	L 111–122	✓correct	−10
Mar 19	at OKC	40%	113–117	L 120–124	✓correct	±0
Mar 16	vs ORL	68%	120–113	W 116–113	✓correct	−4
Mar 14	vs MIL	60%	116–112	L 104–116	✗missed	−16
Mar 13	at GSW	40%	113–117	L 112–123	✓correct	−7
Mar 11	vs SAC	70%	121–113	L 119–128	✗missed	−17
Mar 8	vs OKC	70%	121–113	W 132–101	✓correct	+23
Mar 5	at DAL	55%	115–113	W 130–126	✓correct	+2
Mar 3	at CHI	58%	111–108	W 125–104	✓correct	+18
Mar 1	at CHA	80%	123–110	W 105–91	✓correct	+1
Feb 26	at MIL	37%	112–117	L 101–104	✓correct	+2
Feb 24	vs OKC	63%	121–116	W 124–115	✓correct	+4
Feb 16	vs LAC	60%	115–111	L 107–116	✗missed	−13
Feb 14	vs SAC	55%	115–113	W 120–109	✓correct	+9
Feb 10	at IND	65%	119–113	W 117–104	✓correct	+7
Feb 9	at ATL	47%	118–119	L 107–116	✓correct	−8
Feb 7	at BKN	45%	115–117	W 116–112	✗missed	+6
Feb 4	at DET	70%	122–114	W 116–100	✓correct	+8
Feb 3	at BOS	35%	110–116	W 106–94	✗missed	+18
Feb 1	vs ATL	58%	118–115	L 100–132	✗missed	−35
Jan 30	vs TOR	53%	118–117	W 114–106	✓correct	+7
Jan 28	at SAS	74%	124–114	W 128–118	✓correct	±0
Jan 26	vs DAL	65%	117–111	L 95–99	✗missed	−10
Jan 24	vs CHA	68%	117–110	W 128–97	✓correct	+24
Jan 22	vs MEM	45%	112–114	W 112–110	✗missed	+4
Jan 21	vs IND	55%	115–113	W 112–107	✓correct	+3
Jan 19	vs BKN	37%	105–110	W 117–112	✗missed	+10
Jan 16	at MEM	32%	112–119	L 106–136	✓correct	−23
Jan 13	at MIN	47%	111–112	L 116–121	✓correct	−4
Jan 11	at DEN	24%	107–118	L 97–126	✓correct	−18
Jan 10	at GSW	47%	112–113	W 125–113	✗missed	+13
Jan 8	vs CLE	45%	107–109	L 98–112	✓correct	−12
Jan 6	vs MIA	47%	108–109	L 96–104	✓correct	−7
Jan 4	at CLE	28%	104–113	L 88–90	✓correct	+7
Jan 2	at NYK	40%	106–110	L 83–102	✓correct	−15
Dec 30	at TOR	53%	113–112	L 104–113	✗missed	−10
Dec 28	at WAS	58%	116–113	L 102–127	✗missed	−28
Dec 27	at MEM	22%	106–118	W 125–108	✗missed	+29
Dec 25	at DEN	53%	114–113	L 125–128	✗missed	−4
Dec 23	vs MEM	58%	112–109	L 100–125	✗missed	−28
Dec 20	vs WAS	65%	120–114	L 110–113	✗missed	−9
Dec 19	vs LAL	70%	121–113	W 130–104	✓correct	+18
Dec 17	vs NOP	53%	112–111	W 118–114	✓correct	+3
Dec 15	at LAC	72%	115–106	W 111–95	✓correct	+7
Dec 13	at HOU	63%	116–111	L 97–111	✗missed	−19
Dec 11	at NOP	32%	106–113	L 124–129	✓correct	+2
Dec 9	at NOP	40%	110–114	L 117–128	✓correct	−7
Dec 7	vs BOS	47%	113–114	L 98–125	✓correct	−26
Dec 5	at DAL	60%	114–110	L 111–130	✗missed	−23
Dec 4	at SAS	70%	123–115	W 133–95	✓correct	+30
Dec 2	vs HOU	84%	123–107	L 121–122	✗missed	−17
Nov 30	vs CHI	72%	118–109	W 132–113	✓correct	+10
Nov 28	at SAC	55%	119–117	W 122–117	✓correct	+3
Nov 26	vs UTA	63%	118–113	W 113–112	✓correct	−4
Nov 25	vs DET	84%	118–102	W 108–102	✓correct	−10
Nov 22	vs LAL	70%	114–106	W 115–105	✓correct	+2
Nov 20	vs NYK	63%	114–109	W 116–95	✓correct	+16
Nov 18	at UTA	42%	107–110	L 133–134	✓correct	+2
Nov 16	vs GSW	58%	112–109	W 130–119	✓correct	+8
Nov 14	at MIA	53%	107–106	L 112–113	✗missed	−2
Nov 11	at ORL	68%	111–104	L 97–114	✗missed	−24
Nov 9	at MIN	60%	111–107	W 129–117	✓correct	+8
Nov 7	at PHI	58%	107–104	L 88–100	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	vs POR	74%	113–103	W 102–82	✓correct	+10
Nov 4	vs POR	80%	115–102	L 106–108	✗missed	−15
Nov 1	vs MIN	65%	114–108	W 116–107	✓correct	+3
Oct 30	vs HOU	81%	116–102	W 124–109	✓correct	+1
Oct 28	vs NOP	65%	111–105	W 124–111	✓correct	+7
Oct 25	vs GSW	45%	105–107	W 134–105	✗missed	+31
Oct 23	at LAC	45%	105–107	W 112–95	✗missed	+19
Oct 21	at POR	68%	109–102	L 111–113	✗missed	−9
Oct 19	vs DAL	47%	109–110	W 107–105	✗missed	+3

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.6 to 11.0; 3rd smallest of 30

−0.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.8 to 0.6

13.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

67%

winner picked

355 games involving PHX

184 / 183.9

actual / expected wins

gap +0.1

0.217

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 355 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	PHX win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs HOU	32%	111–117	W 102–99	✗missed	+9
Nov 5	vs ORL	64%	117–112	W 117–104	✓correct	+8
Nov 4	vs POR	47%	112–114	L 119–132	✓correct	−11
Nov 2	at GSW	47%	113–114	L 113–116	✓correct	−2
Oct 30	vs DEN	47%	113–114	L 120–127	✓correct	−6
Oct 26	at OKC	24%	105–115	L 114–125	✓correct	−1
Oct 24	vs GSW	69%	116–109	W 131–122	✓correct	+2
Oct 21	at POR	47%	113–114	L 83–124	✓correct	−40
Apr 27 PO	vs OKC	40%	108–112	L 122–131	✓correct	−5
Apr 25 PO	vs OKC	32%	105–112	L 109–121	✓correct	−5
Apr 22 PO	at OKC	19%	101–114	L 107–120	✓correct	±0
Apr 19 PO	at OKC	22%	105–116	L 84–119	✓correct	−24
Apr 12	at OKC	13%	104–121	W 135–103	✗missed	+49
Apr 10	at LAL	47%	113–114	L 73–101	✓correct	−27
Apr 8	vs DAL	89%	127–109	W 112–107	✓correct	−13
Apr 7	vs HOU	47%	113–114	L 105–119	✓correct	−13
Apr 5	at CHI	71%	122–114	W 120–110	✓correct	+2
Apr 2	at CHA	39%	110–114	L 107–127	✓correct	−16
Mar 31	at ORL	47%	116–117	L 111–115	✓correct	−3
Mar 30	at MEM	74%	119–110	W 131–105	✓correct	+17
Mar 28	vs UTA	83%	124–110	W 134–109	✓correct	+11
Mar 24	vs DEN	53%	117–116	L 123–125	✗missed	−3
Mar 22	vs TOR	44%	113–115	W 120–98	✗missed	+24
Mar 21	vs MIL	74%	116–107	L 105–108	✗missed	−12
Mar 19	at SAS	24%	111–121	L 100–101	✓correct	+9
Mar 17	at MIN	53%	112–111	L 104–116	✗missed	−13
Mar 16	at BOS	36%	107–112	L 112–120	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	at TOR	47%	108–109	L 115–122	✓correct	−6
Mar 12	at IND	76%	115–105	W 123–108	✓correct	+5
Mar 10	at MIL	61%	112–108	W 129–114	✓correct	+11
Mar 8	vs CHA	29%	105–113	W 111–99	✗missed	+20
Mar 6	vs NOP	47%	110–111	W 118–116	✗missed	+3
Mar 5	vs CHI	59%	111–108	L 103–105	✗missed	−5
Mar 3	at SAC	61%	112–108	W 114–103	✓correct	+7
Feb 26	vs LAL	34%	106–112	W 113–110	✗missed	+9
Feb 24	vs BOS	36%	102–107	L 81–97	✓correct	−11
Feb 22	vs POR	53%	117–116	L 77–92	✗missed	−16
Feb 21	vs ORL	47%	113–114	W 113–110	✗missed	+4
Feb 19	at SAS	31%	110–117	L 94–121	✓correct	−20
Feb 11	vs OKC	39%	109–113	L 109–136	✓correct	−23
Feb 10	vs DAL	69%	120–113	W 120–111	✓correct	+2
Feb 7	vs PHI	56%	113–111	L 103–109	✗missed	−8
Feb 5	vs GSW	67%	120–114	L 97–101	✗missed	−10
Feb 3	at POR	53%	111–110	W 130–125	✓correct	+4
Feb 1	vs LAC	56%	111–109	L 93–117	✗missed	−26
Jan 30	vs CLE	56%	113–111	W 126–113	✓correct	+11
Jan 29	vs DET	42%	108–111	W 114–96	✗missed	+21
Jan 27	vs BKN	76%	114–104	W 106–102	✓correct	−6
Jan 25	vs MIA	67%	118–112	L 102–111	✗missed	−15
Jan 23	at ATL	61%	117–113	L 103–110	✗missed	−11
Jan 20	at PHI	53%	113–112	W 116–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 19	at BKN	76%	116–106	W 126–117	✓correct	−1
Jan 17	at NYK	53%	114–113	W 106–99	✓correct	+6
Jan 15	at DET	39%	110–114	L 105–108	✓correct	+1
Jan 13	at MIA	53%	117–116	L 121–127	✗missed	−7
Jan 11	vs WAS	82%	122–109	W 112–93	✓correct	+6
Jan 9	vs NYK	64%	119–114	W 112–107	✓correct	±0
Jan 7	at MEM	58%	119–116	W 117–98	✓correct	+16
Jan 5	at HOU	44%	111–113	L 97–100	✓correct	−1
Jan 4	vs OKC	59%	117–114	W 108–105	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	vs SAC	80%	119–107	W 129–102	✓correct	+15
Dec 31	at CLE	47%	118–119	L 113–129	✓correct	−15
Dec 29	at WAS	71%	120–112	W 115–101	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	at NOP	58%	118–115	W 123–114	✓correct	+6
Dec 26	at NOP	58%	120–117	W 115–108	✓correct	+4
Dec 23	vs LAL	56%	116–114	W 132–108	✓correct	+22
Dec 20	at GSW	36%	109–114	L 116–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 18	vs GSW	47%	114–115	W 99–98	✗missed	+2
Dec 14	vs LAL	53%	115–114	L 114–116	✗missed	−3
Dec 10	at OKC	19%	110–123	L 89–138	✓correct	−36
Dec 8	at MIN	29%	112–120	W 108–105	✗missed	+11
Dec 5	at HOU	31%	112–119	L 98–117	✓correct	−12
Dec 1	at LAL	41%	116–119	W 125–108	✗missed	+20
Nov 29	vs DEN	56%	118–116	L 112–130	✗missed	−20
Nov 28	at OKC	17%	109–123	L 119–123	✓correct	+10
Nov 26	at SAC	66%	120–114	W 112–100	✓correct	+6
Nov 24	vs HOU	42%	111–114	L 92–114	✓correct	−19
Nov 23	vs SAS	71%	121–113	W 111–102	✓correct	+1
Nov 21	vs MIN	47%	117–118	W 114–113	✗missed	+2
Nov 18	at POR	53%	120–119	W 127–110	✓correct	+16
Nov 16	vs ATL	53%	117–116	L 122–124	✗missed	−3
Nov 13	vs IND	74%	120–111	W 133–98	✓correct	+26
Nov 12	at DAL	56%	117–115	W 123–114	✓correct	+7
Nov 10	vs NOP	78%	122–111	W 121–98	✓correct	+12
Nov 8	at LAC	47%	114–115	W 114–103	✗missed	+12
Nov 6	vs LAC	53%	113–112	W 115–102	✓correct	+12
Nov 4	at GSW	31%	114–121	L 107–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs SAS	39%	114–118	W 130–118	✗missed	+16
Oct 31	vs UTA	56%	119–117	W 118–96	✓correct	+20
Oct 29	vs MEM	42%	115–118	L 113–114	✓correct	+2
Oct 27	at UTA	56%	116–114	L 134–138	✗missed	−6
Oct 25	at DEN	29%	110–118	L 111–133	✓correct	−14
Oct 24	at LAC	31%	109–116	L 102–129	✓correct	−20
Oct 22	vs SAC	42%	113–116	W 120–116	✗missed	+7
Apr 13	at SAC	29%	108–116	L 98–109	✓correct	−3
Apr 11	vs SAS	54%	112–111	W 117–98	✓correct	+18
Apr 9	vs OKC	29%	109–118	L 112–125	✓correct	−4
Apr 8	vs GSW	36%	111–117	L 95–133	✓correct	−32
Apr 6	at NYK	27%	107–116	L 98–112	✓correct	−5
Apr 4	at BOS	23%	107–118	L 103–123	✓correct	−9
Apr 1	at MIL	36%	109–114	L 123–133	✓correct	−5
Mar 30	vs HOU	41%	110–114	L 109–148	✓correct	−35
Mar 28	at MIN	38%	111–115	L 109–124	✓correct	−11
Mar 26	vs BOS	23%	105–117	L 102–132	✓correct	−18
Mar 24	vs MIL	54%	114–113	W 108–106	✓correct	+1
Mar 21	vs CLE	34%	111–118	W 123–112	✗missed	+18
Mar 19	vs CHI	57%	117–115	W 127–121	✓correct	+4
Mar 17	vs TOR	73%	118–109	W 129–89	✓correct	+31
Mar 16	at LAL	38%	111–115	L 96–107	✓correct	−7
Mar 14	vs SAC	41%	113–117	W 122–106	✗missed	+20
Mar 12	at HOU	27%	111–120	L 104–111	✓correct	+2
Mar 10	at MEM	33%	117–123	L 118–120	✓correct	+4
Mar 9	at DAL	54%	117–115	W 125–116	✓correct	+7
Mar 7	at DEN	25%	114–124	L 141–149	✓correct	+2
Mar 4	vs LAC	54%	117–116	W 119–117	✓correct	+1
Mar 2	vs MIN	46%	119–121	L 98–116	✓correct	−16
Feb 28	vs NOP	67%	123–117	W 125–108	✓correct	+11
Feb 27	vs NOP	67%	121–115	L 116–124	✗missed	−14
Feb 25	at MEM	23%	113–124	L 148–151	✓correct	+8
Feb 23	at TOR	61%	116–111	L 109–127	✗missed	−23
Feb 22	at CHI	61%	120–115	W 121–117	✓correct	−1
Feb 20	at SAS	41%	116–119	L 109–120	✓correct	−8
Feb 12	at HOU	33%	109–115	L 111–119	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	vs MEM	39%	116–121	L 112–119	✓correct	−2
Feb 8	vs DEN	46%	115–117	L 105–122	✓correct	−15
Feb 7	vs UTA	75%	122–112	W 135–127	✓correct	−2
Feb 5	at OKC	23%	112–123	L 109–140	✓correct	−20
Feb 3	at POR	51%	113–112	L 119–121	✗missed	−3
Feb 1	at POR	54%	113–111	L 108–127	✗missed	−21
Jan 31	at GSW	43%	112–114	W 130–105	✗missed	+27
Jan 29	vs MIN	64%	115–110	L 113–121	✗missed	−13
Jan 27	vs LAC	49%	112–113	W 111–109	✗missed	+3
Jan 25	vs WAS	79%	122–110	W 119–109	✓correct	−2
Jan 22	at BKN	71%	116–107	W 108–84	✓correct	+15
Jan 20	at CLE	29%	115–123	L 92–118	✓correct	−18
Jan 18	at DET	41%	112–115	W 125–121	✗missed	+7
Jan 16	at WAS	61%	119–114	W 130–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 14	at ATL	46%	117–118	L 117–122	✓correct	−4
Jan 12	vs CHA	69%	113–106	W 120–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 11	vs UTA	67%	113–107	W 114–106	✓correct	+2
Jan 9	vs ATL	57%	117–115	W 123–115	✓correct	+6
Jan 7	at CHA	51%	113–112	L 104–115	✗missed	−12
Jan 6	at PHI	43%	111–113	W 109–99	✗missed	+12
Jan 4	at IND	38%	113–117	L 108–126	✓correct	−14
Dec 31	vs MEM	46%	118–120	L 112–117	✓correct	−3
Dec 28	at GSW	36%	108–113	L 105–109	✓correct	+1
Dec 27	vs DAL	49%	115–116	L 89–98	✓correct	−8
Dec 25	vs DEN	39%	116–121	W 110–100	✗missed	+15
Dec 23	at DEN	29%	116–124	L 90–117	✓correct	−19
Dec 21	vs DET	69%	121–114	L 125–133	✗missed	−15
Dec 19	vs IND	62%	121–117	L 111–120	✗missed	−13
Dec 15	vs POR	77%	120–109	W 116–109	✓correct	−4
Dec 13	at UTA	56%	116–113	W 134–126	✓correct	+5
Dec 8	at ORL	38%	106–110	L 110–115	✓correct	−1
Dec 7	at MIA	31%	106–113	L 111–121	✓correct	−3
Dec 5	at NOP	59%	114–110	L 124–126	✗missed	−6
Dec 3	vs SAS	57%	116–114	W 104–93	✓correct	+9
Nov 30	vs GSW	54%	117–116	W 113–105	✓correct	+7
Nov 27	vs BKN	71%	115–107	L 117–127	✗missed	−18
Nov 26	vs LAL	54%	114–113	W 127–100	✓correct	+26
Nov 20	vs NYK	39%	108–113	L 122–138	✓correct	−11
Nov 18	vs ORL	41%	108–112	L 99–109	✓correct	−6
Nov 17	at MIN	38%	108–112	L 117–120	✓correct	+1
Nov 15	at OKC	21%	109–121	L 83–99	✓correct	−4
Nov 13	at SAC	33%	109–115	L 104–127	✓correct	−17
Nov 12	at UTA	61%	116–111	W 120–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 10	vs SAC	57%	114–112	L 118–127	✗missed	−11
Nov 8	at DAL	41%	110–113	W 114–113	✗missed	+4
Nov 6	vs MIA	67%	112–106	W 115–112	✓correct	−3
Nov 4	vs PHI	67%	113–107	W 118–116	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs POR	81%	118–105	W 103–97	✓correct	−7
Oct 31	at LAC	43%	107–109	W 125–119	✗missed	+8
Oct 28	vs LAL	57%	113–111	W 109–105	✓correct	+2
Oct 26	vs DAL	46%	106–108	W 114–102	✗missed	+14
Oct 25	at LAL	38%	110–114	L 116–123	✓correct	−3
Oct 23	at LAC	38%	106–110	W 116–113	✗missed	+7
Apr 28 PO	vs MIN	53%	108–109	L 116–122	✓correct	−5
Apr 26 PO	vs MIN	59%	108–106	L 109–126	✗missed	−19
Apr 23 PO	at MIN	34%	106–112	L 93–105	✓correct	−6
Apr 20 PO	at MIN	27%	105–115	L 95–120	✓correct	−15
Apr 14	at MIN	35%	109–114	W 125–106	✗missed	+24
Apr 12	at SAC	43%	109–110	W 108–107	✗missed	+2
Apr 10	at LAC	51%	112–109	W 124–108	✓correct	+13
Apr 9	vs LAC	70%	115–107	L 92–105	✗missed	−21
Apr 7	vs NOP	67%	112–106	L 105–113	✗missed	−14
Apr 5	vs MIN	61%	108–105	W 97–87	✓correct	+7
Apr 3	vs CLE	57%	111–110	W 122–101	✓correct	+20
Apr 1	at NOP	35%	106–111	W 124–111	✗missed	+18
Mar 29	at OKC	39%	110–113	L 103–128	✓correct	−22
Mar 27	at DEN	35%	108–113	W 104–97	✗missed	+12
Mar 25	at SAS	63%	117–108	L 102–104	✗missed	−11
Mar 23	at SAS	55%	116–111	W 131–106	✓correct	+20
Mar 21	vs ATL	70%	116–108	W 128–115	✓correct	+5
Mar 20	vs PHI	59%	110–108	W 115–102	✓correct	+11
Mar 17	at MIL	37%	107–111	L 129–140	✓correct	−7
Mar 15	at CHA	55%	112–107	W 107–96	✓correct	+6
Mar 14	at BOS	37%	108–112	L 112–127	✓correct	−11
Mar 11	at CLE	49%	112–110	W 117–111	✓correct	+4
Mar 9	vs BOS	49%	109–112	L 107–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 7	vs TOR	67%	117–111	W 120–113	✓correct	+1
Mar 5	at DEN	28%	110–119	W 117–107	✗missed	+19
Mar 3	vs OKC	53%	113–114	L 110–118	✓correct	−7
Mar 2	vs HOU	63%	118–114	L 109–118	✗missed	−13
Feb 29	vs HOU	65%	121–116	W 110–105	✓correct	±0
Feb 25	vs LAL	59%	119–117	W 123–113	✓correct	+8
Feb 23	at HOU	49%	119–117	L 110–114	✗missed	−6
Feb 22	at DAL	39%	116–119	L 113–123	✓correct	−7
Feb 14	vs DET	82%	127–111	W 116–100	✓correct	±0
Feb 13	vs SAC	67%	120–114	W 130–125	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at GSW	41%	114–116	L 112–113	✓correct	+1
Feb 8	vs UTA	61%	119–116	W 129–115	✓correct	+11
Feb 6	vs MIL	59%	119–117	W 114–106	✓correct	+6
Feb 4	at WAS	65%	122–112	W 140–112	✓correct	+18
Feb 2	at ATL	57%	120–114	L 120–129	✗missed	−15
Jan 31	at BKN	53%	113–109	W 136–120	✓correct	+12
Jan 29	at MIA	55%	115–110	W 118–105	✓correct	+8
Jan 28	at ORL	53%	112–108	L 98–113	✗missed	−19
Jan 26	at IND	43%	115–116	L 131–133	✓correct	−1
Jan 24	at DAL	47%	116–115	W 132–109	✓correct	+22
Jan 22	vs CHI	59%	116–114	W 115–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 21	vs IND	67%	121–115	W 117–110	✓correct	+1
Jan 19	at NOP	39%	108–111	W 123–109	✗missed	+17
Jan 16	vs SAC	57%	117–116	W 119–117	✓correct	+1
Jan 14	at POR	61%	119–111	W 127–116	✓correct	+3
Jan 11	at LAL	43%	116–117	W 127–109	✗missed	+19
Jan 8	at LAC	37%	112–116	L 111–138	✓correct	−23
Jan 7	vs MEM	68%	118–111	L 115–121	✗missed	−13
Jan 5	vs MIA	57%	116–115	W 113–97	✓correct	+15
Jan 3	vs LAC	51%	113–115	L 122–131	✓correct	−7
Jan 1	vs POR	76%	124–112	W 109–88	✓correct	+9
Dec 31	vs ORL	59%	117–115	W 112–107	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	vs CHA	76%	120–108	W 133–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 27	at HOU	35%	111–116	W 129–113	✗missed	+21
Dec 25	vs DAL	61%	118–115	L 114–128	✗missed	−17
Dec 22	at SAC	39%	117–120	L 105–120	✓correct	−12
Dec 19	at POR	51%	115–112	L 104–109	✗missed	−8
Dec 17	vs WAS	72%	121–112	W 112–108	✓correct	−5
Dec 15	vs NYK	51%	113–115	L 122–139	✓correct	−15
Dec 13	vs BKN	63%	112–108	L 112–116	✗missed	−8
Dec 12	vs GSW	49%	114–117	W 119–116	✗missed	+6
Dec 8	vs SAC	51%	115–117	L 106–114	✓correct	−6
Dec 5	at LAL	49%	113–111	L 103–106	✗missed	−5
Dec 2	vs MEM	65%	109–104	W 116–109	✓correct	+2
Dec 1	vs DEN	51%	110–112	L 111–119	✓correct	−6
Nov 29	at TOR	49%	112–110	L 105–112	✗missed	−9
Nov 26	at NYK	39%	106–109	W 116–113	✗missed	+6
Nov 24	at MEM	47%	111–110	W 110–89	✓correct	+20
Nov 22	vs GSW	57%	116–115	W 123–115	✓correct	+7
Nov 21	vs POR	76%	114–102	W 120–107	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	at UTA	43%	113–114	W 140–137	✗missed	+4
Nov 17	at UTA	47%	116–115	W 131–128	✓correct	+2
Nov 15	vs MIN	53%	110–111	W 133–115	✗missed	+19
Nov 12	vs OKC	61%	116–113	L 99–111	✗missed	−15
Nov 10	vs LAL	57%	112–111	L 119–122	✗missed	−4
Nov 8	at CHI	41%	110–112	W 116–115	✗missed	+3
Nov 5	at DET	43%	112–113	W 120–106	✗missed	+15
Nov 4	at PHI	30%	105–113	L 100–112	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs SAS	68%	119–112	L 121–132	✗missed	−18
Oct 31	vs SAS	72%	120–111	L 114–115	✗missed	−10
Oct 28	vs UTA	67%	119–113	W 126–104	✓correct	+16
Oct 26	at LAL	41%	114–116	L 95–100	✓correct	−3
Oct 24	at GSW	37%	112–116	W 108–104	✗missed	+8
May 11 PO	vs DEN	78%	111–99	L 100–125	✗missed	−37
May 9 PO	at DEN	17%	101–116	L 102–118	✓correct	−1
May 7 PO	vs DEN	65%	111–105	W 129–124	✓correct	−1
May 5 PO	vs DEN	63%	109–104	W 121–114	✓correct	+2
May 1 PO	at DEN	26%	103–113	L 87–97	✓correct	±0
Apr 29 PO	at DEN	32%	106–113	L 107–125	✓correct	−11
Apr 25 PO	vs LAC	74%	116–106	W 136–130	✓correct	−4
Apr 22 PO	at LAC	37%	109–114	W 112–100	✗missed	+17
Apr 20 PO	at LAC	37%	111–116	W 129–124	✗missed	+10
Apr 18 PO	vs LAC	70%	120–112	W 123–109	✓correct	+6
Apr 16 PO	vs LAC	72%	117–108	L 110–115	✗missed	−14
Apr 9	vs LAC	58%	115–112	L 114–119	✗missed	−8
Apr 7	at LAL	28%	115–124	L 107–121	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs DEN	70%	116–108	W 119–115	✓correct	−4
Apr 4	vs SAS	87%	125–107	W 115–94	✓correct	+3
Apr 2	at OKC	58%	118–115	W 128–118	✓correct	+7
Mar 31	vs DEN	53%	115–114	W 100–93	✓correct	+6
Mar 29	vs MIN	60%	119–115	W 107–100	✓correct	+3
Mar 27	at UTA	55%	124–122	W 117–103	✓correct	+12
Mar 25	vs PHI	42%	114–117	W 125–105	✗missed	+23
Mar 24	at SAC	40%	118–122	L 127–135	✓correct	−4
Mar 22	at LAL	47%	113–114	L 111–122	✓correct	−10
Mar 19	at OKC	40%	113–117	L 120–124	✓correct	±0
Mar 16	vs ORL	68%	120–113	W 116–113	✓correct	−4
Mar 14	vs MIL	60%	116–112	L 104–116	✗missed	−16
Mar 13	at GSW	40%	113–117	L 112–123	✓correct	−7
Mar 11	vs SAC	70%	121–113	L 119–128	✗missed	−17
Mar 8	vs OKC	70%	121–113	W 132–101	✓correct	+23
Mar 5	at DAL	55%	115–113	W 130–126	✓correct	+2
Mar 3	at CHI	58%	111–108	W 125–104	✓correct	+18
Mar 1	at CHA	80%	123–110	W 105–91	✓correct	+1
Feb 26	at MIL	37%	112–117	L 101–104	✓correct	+2
Feb 24	vs OKC	63%	121–116	W 124–115	✓correct	+4
Feb 16	vs LAC	60%	115–111	L 107–116	✗missed	−13
Feb 14	vs SAC	55%	115–113	W 120–109	✓correct	+9
Feb 10	at IND	65%	119–113	W 117–104	✓correct	+7
Feb 9	at ATL	47%	118–119	L 107–116	✓correct	−8
Feb 7	at BKN	45%	115–117	W 116–112	✗missed	+6
Feb 4	at DET	70%	122–114	W 116–100	✓correct	+8
Feb 3	at BOS	35%	110–116	W 106–94	✗missed	+18
Feb 1	vs ATL	58%	118–115	L 100–132	✗missed	−35
Jan 30	vs TOR	53%	118–117	W 114–106	✓correct	+7
Jan 28	at SAS	74%	124–114	W 128–118	✓correct	±0
Jan 26	vs DAL	65%	117–111	L 95–99	✗missed	−10
Jan 24	vs CHA	68%	117–110	W 128–97	✓correct	+24
Jan 22	vs MEM	45%	112–114	W 112–110	✗missed	+4
Jan 21	vs IND	55%	115–113	W 112–107	✓correct	+3
Jan 19	vs BKN	37%	105–110	W 117–112	✗missed	+10
Jan 16	at MEM	32%	112–119	L 106–136	✓correct	−23
Jan 13	at MIN	47%	111–112	L 116–121	✓correct	−4
Jan 11	at DEN	24%	107–118	L 97–126	✓correct	−18
Jan 10	at GSW	47%	112–113	W 125–113	✗missed	+13
Jan 8	vs CLE	45%	107–109	L 98–112	✓correct	−12
Jan 6	vs MIA	47%	108–109	L 96–104	✓correct	−7
Jan 4	at CLE	28%	104–113	L 88–90	✓correct	+7
Jan 2	at NYK	40%	106–110	L 83–102	✓correct	−15
Dec 30	at TOR	53%	113–112	L 104–113	✗missed	−10
Dec 28	at WAS	58%	116–113	L 102–127	✗missed	−28
Dec 27	at MEM	22%	106–118	W 125–108	✗missed	+29
Dec 25	at DEN	53%	114–113	L 125–128	✗missed	−4
Dec 23	vs MEM	58%	112–109	L 100–125	✗missed	−28
Dec 20	vs WAS	65%	120–114	L 110–113	✗missed	−9
Dec 19	vs LAL	70%	121–113	W 130–104	✓correct	+18
Dec 17	vs NOP	53%	112–111	W 118–114	✓correct	+3
Dec 15	at LAC	72%	115–106	W 111–95	✓correct	+7
Dec 13	at HOU	63%	116–111	L 97–111	✗missed	−19
Dec 11	at NOP	32%	106–113	L 124–129	✓correct	+2
Dec 9	at NOP	40%	110–114	L 117–128	✓correct	−7
Dec 7	vs BOS	47%	113–114	L 98–125	✓correct	−26
Dec 5	at DAL	60%	114–110	L 111–130	✗missed	−23
Dec 4	at SAS	70%	123–115	W 133–95	✓correct	+30
Dec 2	vs HOU	84%	123–107	L 121–122	✗missed	−17
Nov 30	vs CHI	72%	118–109	W 132–113	✓correct	+10
Nov 28	at SAC	55%	119–117	W 122–117	✓correct	+3
Nov 26	vs UTA	63%	118–113	W 113–112	✓correct	−4
Nov 25	vs DET	84%	118–102	W 108–102	✓correct	−10
Nov 22	vs LAL	70%	114–106	W 115–105	✓correct	+2
Nov 20	vs NYK	63%	114–109	W 116–95	✓correct	+16
Nov 18	at UTA	42%	107–110	L 133–134	✓correct	+2
Nov 16	vs GSW	58%	112–109	W 130–119	✓correct	+8
Nov 14	at MIA	53%	107–106	L 112–113	✗missed	−2
Nov 11	at ORL	68%	111–104	L 97–114	✗missed	−24
Nov 9	at MIN	60%	111–107	W 129–117	✓correct	+8
Nov 7	at PHI	58%	107–104	L 88–100	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	vs POR	74%	113–103	W 102–82	✓correct	+10
Nov 4	vs POR	80%	115–102	L 106–108	✗missed	−15
Nov 1	vs MIN	65%	114–108	W 116–107	✓correct	+3
Oct 30	vs HOU	81%	116–102	W 124–109	✓correct	+1
Oct 28	vs NOP	65%	111–105	W 124–111	✓correct	+7
Oct 25	vs GSW	45%	105–107	W 134–105	✗missed	+31
Oct 23	at LAC	45%	105–107	W 112–95	✗missed	+19
Oct 21	at POR	68%	109–102	L 111–113	✗missed	−9
Oct 19	vs DAL	47%	109–110	W 107–105	✗missed	+3

Surprise games

All PHX surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected PHX wins

13%PHX beat OKC135–103Apr 12, 2025-26 · forecast OKC121–104 · missed margin by 49
22%PHX beat MEM125–108Dec 27, 2022-23 · forecast MEM118–106 · missed margin by 29
28%PHX beat DEN117–107Mar 5, 2023-24 · forecast DEN119–110 · missed margin by 19
29%PHX beat MIN108–105Dec 8, 2025-26 · forecast MIN120–112 · missed margin by 11
29%PHX beat CHA111–99Mar 8, 2025-26 · forecast CHA113–105 · missed margin by 20

Most unexpected PHX losses

16%HOU beat PHX122–121Dec 2, 2022-23 · forecast PHX123–107 · missed margin by 17
20%POR beat PHX108–106Nov 4, 2022-23 · forecast PHX115–102 · missed margin by 15
22%DEN beat PHX125–100May 11, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast PHX111–99 · missed margin by 37
26%MIL beat PHX108–105Mar 21, 2025-26 · forecast PHX116–107 · missed margin by 12
28%LAC beat PHX115–110Apr 16, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast PHX117–108 · missed margin by 14

Largest margin misses

13%PHX beat OKC135–103Apr 12, 2025-26 · forecast OKC121–104 · missed margin by 49
53%POR beat PHX124–83Oct 21, 2026-27 · forecast POR114–113 · missed margin by 40
22%DEN beat PHX125–100May 11, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast PHX111–99 · missed margin by 37
82%OKC beat PHX138–89Dec 10, 2025-26 · forecast OKC123–110 · missed margin by 36
59%HOU beat PHX148–109Mar 30, 2024-25 · forecast HOU114–110 · missed margin by 35

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected PHX wins

Most unexpected PHX losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions