2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Charlotte Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, January 5, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET
CHA 5–0@OKC 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | 109 | 124 | +15 |
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) | 128 | 97 | −31 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 90% win probability, projected margin 19.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | CHA | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1404 | 1756 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +422 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −2.6 | +15.2 |
| Games played this season | 35 | 35 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 119.1 | 116.1 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 117.7 | 107.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.7 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 11.3 | 13.1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingCHA1404OKC1756
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
CHA1404
- Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
- First 25 games: +45.1
- Last 10 games: +55.6
- W@CLE119–111+20.4
- WATL133–126+10.1
- L@DET86–112−4.7
- L@CLE132–139−3.2
- WWAS126–109+7.4
- W@ORL120–105+27.4
- LMIL113–123−12.1
- LGSW125–132−5.5
- L@MIL121–122−2.5
- W@CHI112–99+18.3
OKC1756
- Ended last season at 1760 → started this one at 1695
- First 25 games: +101.4
- Last 10 games: −40.5
- WLAC122–101+2.2
- L@MIN107–112−10.2
- WMEM119–103+2.5
- L@SAS110–130−25.5
- LSAS102–117−26.0
- WPHI129–104+3.0
- WATL140–129+1.6
- WPOR124–95+3.9
- W@GSW131–94+16.7
- L@PHX105–108−8.7
Season scoring marginCHA−2.6OKC+15.2
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
CHA−2.6
Scores 115.8, allows 118.5 over 35 games: −2.6 a game.
OKC+15.2
Scores 122.3, allows 107.1 over 35 games: +15.2 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10CHA119.1OKC116.1
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.1).
CHA119.1scored, +4.0 vs league
| Factor | CHA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.6% | 54.6% | +1.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.193 | 0.219 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | +3.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
OKC116.1scored, +1.0 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.5% | 54.6% | +1.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.2% | 12.3% | +3.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.189 | 0.219 | −0.8 | |
| Everything else | −2.6 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10CHA117.7OKC107.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.1).
CHA117.7allowed, +2.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.7% | 54.6% | −1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.2% | 12.3% | −1.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.205 | 0.219 | +0.4 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
OKC107.5allowed, −7.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.6% | 54.6% | +1.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 15.5% | 12.3% | +4.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.214 | 0.219 | +0.1 | |
| Everything else | +1.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 100.7
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.
Rotation points missingCHA11.3OKC13.1
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
CHA11.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 6.3 | 24.0 | 3 |
| KJ Simpson | 5.0 | 16.0 | 2 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-05 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
OKC13.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 6.8 | 24.1 | 4 |
| Alex Caruso | 6.3 | 17.5 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestCHA2 daysOKC1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
CHA2days
Last played Jan 3 against CHI.
OKC1day, back-to-back
Last played Jan 4 against PHX.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
CHA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3 | @CHI | 112–99 | 39-91 | 15-41 | 19-23 | 11 | – | 112.0 | 100.0 | 99.5 |
| Jan 2 | @MIL | 121–122 | 40-82 | 18-40 | 23-28 | 14 | – | 124.7 | 125.8 | 97.0 |
| Dec 31 | GSW | 125–132 | 48-93 | 16-40 | 13-17 | 15 | – | 123.8 | 130.7 | 101.0 |
| Dec 29 | MIL | 113–123 | 40-93 | 17-46 | 16-20 | 13 | – | 121.5 | 129.5 | 94.0 |
| Dec 26 | @ORL | 120–105 | 41-87 | 19-39 | 19-28 | 14 | – | 123.7 | 107.1 | 97.5 |
| Dec 23 | WAS | 126–109 | 42-93 | 20-50 | 22-27 | 4 | – | 134.0 | 114.7 | 94.5 |
| Dec 22 | @CLE | 132–139 | 46-94 | 21-42 | 19-25 | 19 | – | 132.0 | 136.3 | 101.0 |
| Dec 20 | @DET | 86–112 | 28-89 | 13-41 | 17-20 | 23 | – | 80.4 | 106.7 | 106.0 |
| Dec 18 | ATL | 133–126 | 49-91 | 24-49 | 11-17 | 14 | – | 127.9 | 121.2 | 104.0 |
| Dec 14 | @CLE | 119–111 | 43-98 | 17-44 | 16-21 | 16 | – | 111.2 | 104.7 | 96.5 |
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4 | @PHX | 105–108 | 39-82 | 10-32 | 17-19 | 9 | – | 110.5 | 113.7 | 95.0 |
| Jan 2 | @GSW | 131–94 | 48-92 | 16-38 | 19-19 | 13 | – | 126.0 | 90.4 | 104.0 |
| Dec 31 | POR | 124–95 | 44-90 | 16-49 | 20-26 | 14 | – | 117.0 | 88.8 | 106.5 |
| Dec 29 | ATL | 140–129 | 53-98 | 12-32 | 22-23 | 13 | – | 128.4 | 118.3 | 109.0 |
| Dec 28 | PHI | 129–104 | 50-87 | 10-28 | 19-25 | 13 | – | 127.7 | 104.0 | 100.5 |
| Dec 25 | SAS | 102–117 | 37-95 | 11-44 | 17-25 | 7 | – | 104.1 | 121.9 | 97.0 |
| Dec 23 | @SAS | 110–130 | 46-85 | 12-30 | 6-7 | 13 | – | 115.8 | 136.8 | 95.0 |
| Dec 22 | MEM | 119–103 | 46-94 | 15-39 | 12-14 | 13 | – | 113.3 | 98.1 | 105.0 |
| Dec 19 | @MIN | 107–112 | 34-92 | 11-39 | 28-30 | 11 | – | 103.9 | 108.7 | 103.0 |
| Dec 18 | LAC | 122–101 | 48-101 | 13-36 | 13-16 | 8 | – | 114.0 | 94.4 | 107.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | CHA | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 124 | 97 |
| Field goals | 41–77 · 53.2% | 34–93 · 36.6% |
| Three-pointers | 19–37 · 51.4% | 11–39 · 28.2% |
| Free throws | 23–25 · 92.0% | 18–27 · 66.7% |
| Rebounds | 52 | 33 |
| Assists | 25 | 18 |
| Turnovers | 21 | 7 |
| Steals | 4 | 14 |
| Blocks | 7 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Oklahoma City Thunder
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (OKC) | +19 | −27 | −46 |
| Total points | 237 | 221 | −16 |
| CHA points | 109 | 124 | +15 |
| OKC points | 128 | 97 | −31 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 2025-26 | OKC at CHA | OKC 109 – 96 CHA |
| Mar 21 2024-25 | CHA at OKC | CHA 106 – 141 OKC |
| Dec 28 2024-25 | OKC at CHA | OKC 106 – 94 CHA |
| Apr 7 2023-24 | OKC at CHA | OKC 121 – 118 CHA |
| Feb 2 2023-24 | CHA at OKC | CHA 106 – 126 OKC |