The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 19

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers

Sunday, November 19, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

OKC 0–1@POR 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: OKC 51 percent, POR 49 percent. OKC Thunder 51% proj. 115 · final 134 POR Trail Blazers · home 49% proj. 112 · final 91
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 115 134 +19
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) 112 91 −21

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 51% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputOKCPOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15721342
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −161
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.4−6.0
Games played this season 1312
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.1103.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.2109.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 18.531.6
Rest days 12
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1572POR1342

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1572

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1513 → started this one at 1510
  2. First 3 games: +9.2
  3. Last 10 games: +53.4
  • WDET124–112+4.3
  • LNOP106–110−8.1
  • LGSW139–141−4.6
  • WATL126–117+8.6
  • WCLE128–120+7.0
  • L@SAC98–105−7.5
  • W@PHX111–99+14.8
  • WSAS123–87+7.8
  • W@GSW128–109+21.2
  • W@GSW130–123+9.9

POR1342

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1315 → started this one at 1362
  2. First 2 games: −10.2
  3. Last 10 games: −9.7
  • L@PHI98–126−4.6
  • W@TOR99–91+18.8
  • W@DET110–101+12.2
  • WMEM115–113+5.4
  • LMEM100–112−10.8
  • L@SAC118–121−2.5
  • L@LAL110–116−2.9
  • L@UTA99–115−8.6
  • LCLE95–109−8.8
  • LLAL95–107−7.9
Season scoring marginOKC+4.4POR−6.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+4.4

Scores 118.5, allows 112.3 over 13 games: +6.2 a game.

65% this season (+6.2) + 35% last season (+1.1) = +4.4

POR−6.0

Scores 103.9, allows 111.3 over 12 games: −7.4 a game.

60% this season (−7.4) + 40% last season (−4.0) = −6.0

Offensive rating, last 10OKC117.1POR103.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 112.9).

OKC117.1scored, +4.2 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.2%54.0%+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.3%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.6%24.4%−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2390.200+1.1
Everything else+0.5

POR103.1scored, −9.8 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.7%54.0%−8.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.3%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%24.4%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.200−0.3
Everything else+0.6
Defensive rating, last 10OKC108.2POR109.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 112.9).

OKC108.2allowed, −4.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.9%54.0%+6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.3%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.0%24.4%−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.200−0.3
Everything else+0.3

POR109.9allowed, −3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.0%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.3%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.8%24.4%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.200−0.2
Everything else+0.8
Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 102.5 and POR 98.9 → average 100.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.1)

Rotation points missingOKC18.5POR31.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC18.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Williams18.533.610

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-19 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

POR31.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Malcolm Brogdon16.728.26
Scoot Henderson8.727.03
Robert Williams III6.218.94

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-19 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestOKC1 daysPOR2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 18 against GSW.

POR2days

Last played Nov 17 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 18@GSW130–12352-1008-2318-20109117.1109.8101.0
Nov 16@GSW128–10944-8719-3221-23127128.0110.199.5
Nov 14SAS123–8746-8915-3916-20154116.082.1106.0
Nov 12@PHX111–9940-8210-2721-2576115.6103.196.0
Nov 10@SAC98–10539-877-3013-1616599.0105.099.5
Nov 8CLE128–12044-8612-2828-301412123.1115.4104.0
Nov 6ATL126–11745-9414-3522-231311118.9109.3106.5
Nov 3GSW139–14150-8315-2924-30197132.4133.0105.5
Nov 1NOP106–11038-887-3423-25146101.9105.8104.0
Oct 30DET124–11244-8313-2923-28156119.2108.7103.5

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 17LAL95–10736-8910-3713-18181999.0110.396.5
Nov 15CLE95–10934-9113-3814-16128101.1114.794.5
Nov 14@UTA99–11537-8811-3514-20171398.0113.9101.0
Nov 12@LAL110–11645-9013-377-9155108.9114.9101.0
Nov 8@SAC118–12144-878-2222-29187110.3111.097.8
Nov 5MEM100–11237-9514-4512-151416100.0114.399.0
Nov 3MEM115–11339-969-3228-361415107.5104.697.4
Nov 1@DET110–10138-817-2027-33177104.895.3105.5
Oct 30@TOR99–9138-8511-3512-151413106.597.893.0
Oct 29@PHI98–12636-947-3119-22151495.1122.3103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
51%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
OKC was the forecast favorite
40 pts
margin miss
forecast −3, actual −43 for POR
503rd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
10th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.67 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statOKCPOR
Final score13491
Field goals49–81 · 60.5%34–85 · 40.0%
Three-pointers22–36 · 61.1%9–34 · 26.5%
Free throws14–14 · 100.0%14–21 · 66.7%
Rebounds4331
Assists2821
Turnovers1717
Steals810
Blocks32

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (POR)−3−43−40
Total points227225−2
OKC points115134+19
POR points11291−21

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
OKC33432533–134
POR21222325–91

Recent form before this game

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Nov 18 at GSW W 130–123
Nov 16 at GSW W 128–109
Nov 14 vs SAS W 123–87
Nov 12 at PHX W 111–99
Nov 10 at SAC L 98–105

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Nov 17 vs LAL L 95–107
Nov 15 vs CLE L 95–109
Nov 14 at UTA L 99–115
Nov 12 at LAL L 110–116
Nov 8 at SAC L 118–121

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 26 2022-23 OKC at POR OKC 118 – 112 POR
Feb 10 2022-23 OKC at POR OKC 138 – 129 POR
Dec 21 2022-23 POR at OKC POR 98 – 101 OKC
Dec 19 2022-23 POR at OKC POR 121 – 123 OKC
Apr 5 2021-22 POR at OKC POR 94 – 98 OKC