Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Cleveland Cavaliers CLE

5–5

2026-27 record

1582

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

115.1

Offensive rating

last 10 games

112.7

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

100.5

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded CLE game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 266 of 382 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of CLE's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. CLE ranks 9 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 7:00 PM ET

CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 5–5 –

@CHA Charlotte Hornets 3–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 7:00 PM ET

CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 5–5 –

@NYK New York Knicks 5–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 8:00 PM ET

CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 5–5 –

@MIA Miami Heat 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 7:30 PM ET

DAL Dallas Mavericks 6–4 –

@CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 5–5 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked CLE games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

8.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 4.8 to 12.8

+0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.9 to 6.8

12.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

70%

winner picked

10 games involving CLE

5 / 5.5

actual / expected wins

gap −0.5

0.184

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CLE win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs NYK	35%	108–113	L 97–109	✓correct	−7
Nov 6	vs PHI	46%	116–117	W 119–95	✗missed	+25
Nov 4	at OKC	39%	110–113	L 116–124	✓correct	−5
Nov 2	vs OKC	59%	113–110	L 112–117	✗missed	−8
Oct 31	at MIL	64%	121–116	W 136–111	✓correct	+20
Oct 29	at ATL	47%	114–115	L 111–114	✓correct	−2
Oct 28	vs WAS	74%	121–112	W 121–111	✓correct	+1
Oct 26	vs MIN	56%	114–112	W 127–125	✓correct	±0
Oct 24	vs BKN	80%	118–106	W 125–121	✓correct	−8
Oct 22	at PHI	53%	114–113	L 106–114	✗missed	−9

2025-26

10.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.2 to 11.9; 7th smallest of 30

−0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.4 to 2.0

13.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

70%

winner picked

100 games involving CLE

60 / 57.4

actual / expected wins

gap +2.6

0.213

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 100 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CLE win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 25 PO	vs NYK	39%	96–100	L 93–130	✓correct	−33
May 23 PO	vs NYK	47%	100–101	L 108–121	✓correct	−12
May 21 PO	at NYK	31%	104–111	L 93–109	✓correct	−9
May 19 PO	at NYK	34%	105–111	L 104–115	✓correct	−5
May 17 PO	at DET	26%	100–109	W 125–94	✗missed	+40
May 15 PO	vs DET	64%	107–102	L 94–115	✗missed	−26
May 13 PO	at DET	34%	104–110	W 117–113	✗missed	+10
May 11 PO	vs DET	61%	109–105	W 112–103	✓correct	+5
May 9 PO	vs DET	56%	108–106	W 116–109	✓correct	+5
May 7 PO	at DET	29%	108–116	L 97–107	✓correct	−2
May 5 PO	at DET	41%	108–111	L 101–111	✓correct	−7
May 3 PO	vs TOR	61%	108–104	W 114–102	✓correct	+8
May 1 PO	at TOR	35%	111–117	L 110–112	✓correct	+4
Apr 29 PO	vs TOR	61%	111–107	W 125–120	✓correct	+1
Apr 26 PO	at TOR	42%	110–113	L 89–93	✓correct	−1
Apr 23 PO	at TOR	47%	110–111	L 104–126	✓correct	−21
Apr 20 PO	vs TOR	61%	115–111	W 115–105	✓correct	+6
Apr 18 PO	vs TOR	61%	114–110	W 126–113	✓correct	+9
Apr 12	vs WAS	85%	126–111	W 130–117	✓correct	−2
Apr 10	at ATL	26%	113–122	L 102–124	✓correct	−13
Apr 8	vs ATL	53%	120–119	W 122–116	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	at MEM	74%	123–114	W 142–126	✓correct	+7
Apr 5	vs IND	87%	128–111	W 117–108	✓correct	−8
Apr 2	at GSW	61%	120–116	W 118–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 31	at LAL	39%	113–117	L 113–127	✓correct	−10
Mar 30	at UTA	74%	125–116	W 122–113	✓correct	±0
Mar 27	vs MIA	56%	121–119	W 149–128	✓correct	+19
Mar 25	vs MIA	59%	123–120	L 103–120	✗missed	−20
Mar 24	vs ORL	61%	118–114	W 136–131	✓correct	+1
Mar 21	at NOP	47%	115–116	W 111–106	✗missed	+6
Mar 19	at CHI	66%	119–113	W 115–110	✓correct	−1
Mar 17	at MIL	66%	115–109	W 123–116	✓correct	+1
Mar 15	vs DAL	74%	115–106	L 120–130	✗missed	−19
Mar 13	at DAL	78%	116–105	W 138–105	✓correct	+22
Mar 11	at ORL	53%	109–108	L 122–128	✗missed	−7
Mar 9	vs PHI	83%	121–107	W 115–101	✓correct	±0
Mar 8	vs BOS	44%	108–110	L 98–109	✓correct	−9
Mar 3	vs DET	44%	111–113	W 113–109	✗missed	+6
Mar 1	at BKN	78%	117–106	W 106–102	✓correct	−7
Feb 27	at DET	41%	112–115	L 119–122	✓correct	±0
Feb 25	at MIL	61%	114–110	L 116–118	✗missed	−6
Feb 24	vs NYK	56%	114–112	W 109–94	✓correct	+13
Feb 22	at OKC	47%	112–113	L 113–121	✓correct	−7
Feb 20	at CHA	58%	114–111	W 118–113	✓correct	+2
Feb 19	vs BKN	83%	120–106	W 112–84	✓correct	+14
Feb 11	vs WAS	86%	123–107	W 138–113	✓correct	+9
Feb 9	at DEN	61%	115–111	W 119–117	✓correct	−2
Feb 7	at SAC	74%	116–107	W 132–126	✓correct	−3
Feb 4	at LAC	56%	114–112	W 124–91	✓correct	+31
Feb 1	at POR	44%	114–116	W 130–111	✗missed	+21
Jan 30	at PHX	44%	111–113	L 113–126	✓correct	−11
Jan 28	vs LAL	53%	116–115	W 129–99	✓correct	+29
Jan 26	vs ORL	59%	119–116	W 114–98	✓correct	+13
Jan 24	at ORL	47%	117–118	W 119–105	✗missed	+15
Jan 23	vs SAC	69%	119–112	W 123–118	✓correct	−2
Jan 21	at CHA	36%	113–118	W 94–87	✗missed	+12
Jan 19	vs OKC	44%	116–118	L 104–136	✓correct	−30
Jan 16	at PHI	44%	117–119	W 117–115	✗missed	+4
Jan 14	at PHI	44%	116–118	W 133–107	✗missed	+28
Jan 12	vs UTA	78%	125–114	L 112–123	✗missed	−22
Jan 10	vs MIN	47%	119–120	W 146–134	✗missed	+13
Jan 8	at MIN	36%	115–120	L 122–131	✓correct	−4
Jan 6	at IND	69%	123–116	W 120–116	✓correct	−3
Jan 4	vs DET	47%	118–119	L 110–114	✓correct	−3
Jan 2	vs DEN	53%	121–120	W 113–108	✓correct	+4
Dec 31	vs PHX	53%	119–118	W 129–113	✓correct	+15
Dec 29	at SAS	31%	114–121	W 113–101	✗missed	+19
Dec 27	at HOU	34%	114–120	L 100–117	✓correct	−11
Dec 25	at NYK	41%	118–121	L 124–126	✓correct	+1
Dec 23	vs NOP	74%	125–116	W 141–118	✓correct	+14
Dec 22	vs CHA	67%	121–115	W 139–132	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	vs CHI	64%	120–115	L 125–136	✗missed	−16
Dec 17	at CHI	64%	120–115	L 111–127	✗missed	−21
Dec 14	vs CHA	80%	121–109	L 111–119	✗missed	−20
Dec 12	at WAS	81%	125–112	W 130–126	✓correct	−9
Dec 6	vs GSW	67%	120–114	L 94–99	✗missed	−11
Dec 5	vs SAS	56%	116–114	W 130–117	✓correct	+11
Dec 3	vs POR	67%	120–114	L 110–122	✗missed	−18
Dec 1	at IND	53%	116–115	W 135–119	✓correct	+15
Nov 30	vs BOS	61%	114–110	L 115–117	✗missed	−6
Nov 28	at ATL	47%	118–119	L 123–130	✓correct	−6
Nov 24	at TOR	36%	115–120	L 99–110	✓correct	−6
Nov 23	vs LAC	76%	120–110	W 120–105	✓correct	+5
Nov 21	vs IND	86%	128–112	W 120–109	✓correct	−5
Nov 19	vs HOU	53%	118–117	L 104–114	✗missed	−11
Nov 17	vs MIL	59%	121–118	W 118–106	✓correct	+9
Nov 15	vs MEM	74%	124–115	W 108–100	✓correct	−1
Nov 13	vs TOR	69%	122–115	L 113–126	✗missed	−20
Nov 12	at MIA	39%	117–121	W 130–116	✗missed	+18
Nov 10	at MIA	58%	120–117	L 138–140	✗missed	−5
Nov 8	vs CHI	61%	119–115	W 128–122	✓correct	+2
Nov 7	at WAS	80%	126–114	W 148–115	✓correct	+21
Nov 5	vs PHI	78%	122–111	W 132–121	✓correct	±0
Nov 2	vs ATL	56%	118–116	W 117–109	✓correct	+6
Oct 31	vs TOR	76%	124–114	L 101–112	✗missed	−21
Oct 29	at BOS	53%	114–113	L 105–125	✗missed	−21
Oct 27	at DET	56%	116–114	W 116–95	✓correct	+19
Oct 26	vs MIL	76%	123–113	W 118–113	✓correct	−5
Oct 24	at BKN	74%	119–110	W 131–124	✓correct	−2
Oct 22	at NYK	66%	116–110	L 111–119	✗missed	−14

2024-25

11.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.5 to 12.6; 18th smallest of 30

+2.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.0 to 4.8

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

78%

winner picked

91 games involving CLE

69 / 61.1

actual / expected wins

gap +7.9

0.174

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 91 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CLE win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 13 PO	vs IND	64%	110–105	L 105–114	✗missed	−14
May 11 PO	at IND	56%	109–106	L 109–129	✗missed	−23
May 9 PO	at IND	64%	110–104	W 126–104	✓correct	+16
May 6 PO	vs IND	59%	108–105	L 119–120	✗missed	−4
May 4 PO	vs IND	75%	112–102	L 112–121	✗missed	−19
Apr 28 PO	at MIA	64%	111–105	W 138–83	✓correct	+49
Apr 26 PO	at MIA	54%	109–107	W 124–87	✓correct	+35
Apr 23 PO	vs MIA	64%	113–108	W 121–112	✓correct	+4
Apr 20 PO	vs MIA	69%	116–109	W 121–100	✓correct	+14
Apr 13	vs IND	54%	120–119	L 118–126	✗missed	−9
Apr 11	at NYK	43%	109–111	W 108–102	✗missed	+8
Apr 10	at IND	41%	116–119	L 112–114	✓correct	+1
Apr 8	vs CHI	69%	126–119	W 135–113	✓correct	+15
Apr 6	vs SAC	69%	119–112	L 113–120	✗missed	−14
Apr 4	at SAS	69%	119–111	W 114–113	✓correct	−7
Apr 2	vs NYK	62%	116–112	W 124–105	✓correct	+15
Mar 30	vs LAC	59%	116–113	W 127–122	✓correct	+2
Mar 28	at DET	51%	116–115	L 122–133	✗missed	−12
Mar 27	vs SAS	75%	122–112	W 124–116	✓correct	−2
Mar 25	at POR	59%	114–110	W 122–111	✓correct	+7
Mar 23	at UTA	80%	124–110	W 120–91	✓correct	+15
Mar 21	at PHX	66%	118–111	L 112–123	✗missed	−18
Mar 19	at SAC	66%	118–111	L 119–123	✗missed	−11
Mar 18	at LAC	59%	112–108	L 119–132	✗missed	−17
Mar 16	vs ORL	88%	122–104	L 103–108	✗missed	−23
Mar 14	at MEM	51%	120–119	W 133–124	✓correct	+8
Mar 11	vs BKN	84%	122–107	W 109–104	✓correct	−10
Mar 9	at MIL	54%	118–116	W 112–100	✓correct	+10
Mar 7	at CHA	83%	124–108	W 118–117	✓correct	−15
Mar 5	vs MIA	84%	122–107	W 112–107	✓correct	−10
Mar 4	at CHI	82%	125–110	W 139–117	✓correct	+7
Mar 2	vs POR	84%	125–110	W 133–129	✓correct	−11
Feb 28	at BOS	54%	113–111	W 123–116	✓correct	+5
Feb 25	at ORL	64%	118–112	W 122–82	✓correct	+34
Feb 23	vs MEM	67%	122–116	W 129–123	✓correct	±0
Feb 21	vs NYK	82%	128–114	W 142–105	✓correct	+23
Feb 20	at BKN	77%	114–102	W 110–97	✓correct	+1
Feb 12	at TOR	73%	120–110	W 131–108	✓correct	+13
Feb 10	vs MIN	77%	120–109	W 128–107	✓correct	+10
Feb 7	at WAS	66%	118–111	W 134–124	✓correct	+3
Feb 5	at DET	54%	118–116	W 118–115	✓correct	+1
Feb 4	vs BOS	59%	114–111	L 105–112	✗missed	−10
Feb 2	vs DAL	81%	124–111	W 144–101	✓correct	+30
Jan 30	vs ATL	81%	123–110	W 137–115	✓correct	+9
Jan 29	at MIA	56%	111–108	W 126–106	✓correct	+17
Jan 27	vs DET	67%	120–114	W 110–91	✓correct	+13
Jan 25	vs HOU	49%	114–115	L 131–135	✓correct	−3
Jan 24	at PHI	77%	116–104	L 129–132	✗missed	−15
Jan 22	at HOU	51%	114–113	L 108–109	✗missed	−2
Jan 20	vs PHX	71%	123–115	W 118–92	✓correct	+18
Jan 18	at MIN	66%	115–108	W 124–117	✓correct	±0
Jan 16	at OKC	29%	115–123	L 114–134	✓correct	−12
Jan 14	at IND	51%	118–117	W 127–117	✓correct	+9
Jan 12	vs IND	69%	123–116	L 93–108	✗missed	−22
Jan 9	vs TOR	91%	129–108	W 132–126	✓correct	−15
Jan 8	vs OKC	59%	118–115	W 129–122	✓correct	+4
Jan 5	vs CHA	89%	125–106	W 115–105	✓correct	−9
Jan 3	at DAL	66%	113–106	W 134–122	✓correct	+5
Dec 31	at LAL	54%	116–114	W 122–110	✓correct	+10
Dec 30	at GSW	66%	114–107	W 113–95	✓correct	+11
Dec 27	at DEN	54%	115–113	W 149–135	✓correct	+12
Dec 23	vs UTA	85%	126–110	W 124–113	✓correct	−5
Dec 21	vs PHI	81%	120–107	W 126–99	✓correct	+14
Dec 20	vs MIL	84%	122–107	W 124–101	✓correct	+8
Dec 16	at BKN	77%	118–106	W 130–101	✓correct	+17
Dec 13	vs WAS	89%	127–108	W 115–105	✓correct	−9
Dec 8	at MIA	56%	113–110	L 113–122	✗missed	−12
Dec 7	at CHA	79%	117–104	W 116–102	✓correct	+1
Dec 5	vs DEN	75%	123–113	W 126–114	✓correct	+2
Dec 3	vs WAS	86%	129–112	W 118–87	✓correct	+14
Dec 1	vs BOS	57%	112–110	W 115–111	✓correct	+2
Nov 29	at ATL	64%	122–116	L 101–117	✗missed	−22
Nov 27	vs ATL	82%	126–112	L 124–135	✗missed	−25
Nov 24	vs TOR	88%	124–106	W 122–108	✓correct	−4
Nov 20	vs NOP	79%	121–109	W 128–100	✓correct	+16
Nov 19	at BOS	43%	112–114	L 117–120	✓correct	−1
Nov 17	vs CHA	84%	121–106	W 128–114	✓correct	−1
Nov 15	vs CHI	75%	122–112	W 144–126	✓correct	+8
Nov 13	at PHI	69%	116–108	W 114–106	✓correct	±0
Nov 11	at CHI	61%	121–116	W 119–113	✓correct	+1
Nov 9	vs BKN	79%	121–109	W 105–100	✓correct	−7
Nov 8	vs GSW	64%	117–112	W 136–117	✓correct	+14
Nov 6	at NOP	66%	115–108	W 131–122	✓correct	+2
Nov 4	vs MIL	71%	117–109	W 116–114	✓correct	−6
Nov 2	at MIL	54%	113–111	W 114–113	✓correct	−1
Nov 1	vs ORL	67%	111–105	W 120–109	✓correct	+5
Oct 30	vs LAL	59%	111–108	W 134–110	✓correct	+21
Oct 28	at NYK	46%	110–111	W 110–104	✗missed	+7
Oct 26	at WAS	64%	117–111	W 135–116	✓correct	+13
Oct 25	vs DET	75%	113–103	W 113–101	✓correct	+2
Oct 23	at TOR	59%	113–109	W 136–106	✓correct	+26

2023-24

11.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.4 to 13.5; 22nd smallest of 30

−0.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.8 to 2.2

14.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

62%

winner picked

94 games involving CLE

53 / 50.2

actual / expected wins

gap +2.8

0.233

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 94 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CLE win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 15 PO	at BOS	35%	104–109	L 98–113	✓correct	−10
May 13 PO	vs BOS	57%	105–104	L 102–109	✗missed	−8
May 11 PO	vs BOS	57%	106–105	L 93–106	✗missed	−14
May 9 PO	at BOS	37%	105–109	W 118–94	✗missed	+28
May 7 PO	at BOS	30%	105–113	L 95–120	✓correct	−17
May 5 PO	vs ORL	57%	103–102	W 106–94	✓correct	+11
May 3 PO	at ORL	37%	103–107	L 96–103	✓correct	−3
Apr 30 PO	vs ORL	53%	106–107	W 104–103	✗missed	+2
Apr 27 PO	at ORL	37%	105–109	L 89–112	✓correct	−19
Apr 25 PO	at ORL	43%	106–107	L 83–121	✓correct	−37
Apr 22 PO	vs ORL	57%	110–109	W 96–86	✓correct	+9
Apr 20 PO	vs ORL	57%	114–113	W 97–83	✓correct	+13
Apr 14	vs CHA	73%	115–105	L 110–120	✗missed	−20
Apr 12	vs IND	47%	112–116	W 129–120	✗missed	+13
Apr 10	vs MEM	72%	117–108	W 110–98	✓correct	+3
Apr 7	at LAC	41%	108–110	L 118–120	✓correct	±0
Apr 6	at LAL	41%	113–115	L 97–116	✓correct	−17
Apr 3	at PHX	43%	110–111	L 101–122	✓correct	−20
Apr 2	at UTA	61%	116–108	W 129–113	✓correct	+8
Mar 31	at DEN	47%	108–107	L 101–130	✗missed	−30
Mar 29	vs PHI	67%	109–103	W 117–114	✓correct	−3
Mar 27	at CHA	55%	110–105	L 111–118	✗missed	−12
Mar 25	vs CHA	61%	107–104	W 115–92	✓correct	+20
Mar 24	at MIA	43%	104–105	L 84–121	✓correct	−36
Mar 22	at MIN	41%	106–108	L 91–104	✓correct	−11
Mar 20	vs MIA	61%	107–104	L 104–107	✗missed	−6
Mar 18	at IND	39%	112–115	W 108–103	✗missed	+8
Mar 16	at HOU	49%	111–109	L 103–117	✗missed	−16
Mar 13	at NOP	32%	107–114	W 116–95	✗missed	+28
Mar 11	vs PHX	51%	110–112	L 111–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 10	vs BKN	57%	106–105	L 101–120	✗missed	−20
Mar 8	vs MIN	59%	107–105	W 113–104	✓correct	+7
Mar 6	at ATL	47%	113–112	L 101–112	✗missed	−12
Mar 5	vs BOS	51%	106–108	W 105–104	✗missed	+3
Mar 3	vs NYK	57%	111–110	L 98–107	✗missed	−10
Mar 1	at DET	61%	118–110	W 110–100	✓correct	+2
Feb 28	at CHI	53%	116–112	L 123–132	✗missed	−13
Feb 27	vs DAL	63%	116–112	W 121–119	✓correct	−2
Feb 25	at WAS	63%	123–114	W 114–105	✓correct	±0
Feb 23	at PHI	49%	116–114	L 97–104	✗missed	−9
Feb 22	vs ORL	72%	116–107	L 109–116	✗missed	−16
Feb 14	vs CHI	67%	116–110	W 108–105	✓correct	−3
Feb 12	vs PHI	70%	120–112	L 121–123	✗missed	−10
Feb 10	at TOR	53%	119–115	W 119–95	✓correct	+20
Feb 8	at BKN	51%	117–114	W 118–95	✓correct	+20
Feb 7	at WAS	59%	120–113	W 114–106	✓correct	+1
Feb 5	vs SAC	67%	118–112	W 136–110	✓correct	+20
Feb 3	at SAS	57%	118–112	W 117–101	✓correct	+10
Feb 1	at MEM	53%	112–108	W 108–101	✓correct	+3
Jan 31	vs DET	86%	125–105	W 128–121	✓correct	−13
Jan 29	vs LAC	57%	112–111	W 118–108	✓correct	+9
Jan 26	at MIL	41%	114–116	W 112–100	✗missed	+14
Jan 24	at MIL	41%	114–116	L 116–126	✓correct	−8
Jan 22	at ORL	49%	109–107	W 126–99	✓correct	+25
Jan 20	at ATL	49%	117–115	W 116–95	✓correct	+19
Jan 17	vs MIL	63%	116–112	W 135–95	✓correct	+36
Jan 15	vs CHI	65%	116–111	W 109–91	✓correct	+13
Jan 11	vs BKN	68%	120–113	W 111–102	✓correct	+2
Jan 7	vs SAS	82%	126–110	W 117–115	✓correct	−14
Jan 5	vs WAS	73%	122–112	W 114–90	✓correct	+14
Jan 3	vs WAS	73%	123–113	W 140–101	✓correct	+29
Jan 1	at TOR	49%	116–114	L 121–124	✗missed	−5
Dec 29	vs MIL	51%	113–115	L 111–119	✓correct	−6
Dec 27	at DAL	35%	114–119	W 113–110	✗missed	+8
Dec 23	at CHI	35%	110–115	W 109–95	✗missed	+19
Dec 21	vs NOP	53%	114–115	L 104–123	✓correct	−18
Dec 20	vs UTA	72%	114–105	W 124–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 18	vs HOU	59%	111–109	W 135–130	✓correct	+3
Dec 16	vs ATL	63%	117–113	W 127–119	✓correct	+4
Dec 14	at BOS	37%	113–117	L 107–116	✓correct	−5
Dec 12	at BOS	32%	112–119	L 113–120	✓correct	±0
Dec 11	at ORL	32%	113–120	L 94–104	✓correct	−3
Dec 8	at MIA	41%	112–114	W 111–99	✗missed	+14
Dec 6	vs ORL	61%	116–113	W 121–111	✓correct	+7
Dec 2	at DET	57%	118–112	W 110–101	✓correct	+3
Nov 30	vs POR	68%	115–108	L 95–103	✗missed	−15
Nov 28	vs ATL	63%	119–115	W 128–105	✓correct	+19
Nov 26	vs TOR	59%	118–116	W 105–102	✓correct	+1
Nov 25	vs LAL	65%	117–112	L 115–121	✗missed	−11
Nov 22	vs MIA	57%	111–110	L 96–129	✗missed	−34
Nov 21	at PHI	34%	111–117	W 122–119	✗missed	+9
Nov 19	vs DEN	49%	109–112	W 121–109	✗missed	+15
Nov 17	vs DET	70%	119–111	W 108–100	✓correct	±0
Nov 15	at POR	49%	112–110	W 109–95	✓correct	+12
Nov 13	at SAC	43%	111–112	L 120–132	✓correct	−11
Nov 11	at GSW	35%	110–115	W 118–110	✗missed	+13
Nov 8	at OKC	35%	111–116	L 120–128	✓correct	−3
Nov 5	vs GSW	59%	111–109	W 115–104	✓correct	+9
Nov 3	at IND	41%	115–117	L 116–121	✓correct	−3
Nov 1	at NYK	37%	105–109	W 95–89	✗missed	+10
Oct 31	vs NYK	65%	108–103	L 91–109	✗missed	−23
Oct 28	vs IND	70%	118–110	L 113–125	✗missed	−20
Oct 27	vs OKC	63%	114–110	L 105–108	✗missed	−7
Oct 25	at BKN	41%	108–110	W 114–113	✗missed	+3

2022-23

9.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.5 to 10.8; 8th smallest of 30

−0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.8 to 1.2

11.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

69%

winner picked

87 games involving CLE

52 / 54.6

actual / expected wins

gap −2.6

0.210

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 87 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CLE win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 26 PO	vs NYK	58%	107–104	L 95–106	✗missed	−14
Apr 23 PO	at NYK	42%	105–108	L 93–102	✓correct	−6
Apr 21 PO	at NYK	45%	108–110	L 79–99	✓correct	−18
Apr 18 PO	vs NYK	72%	116–107	W 107–90	✓correct	+8
Apr 15 PO	vs NYK	76%	118–107	L 97–101	✗missed	−15
Apr 9	vs CHA	72%	119–110	L 95–106	✗missed	−20
Apr 6	at ORL	68%	120–113	W 118–94	✓correct	+17
Apr 4	at ORL	63%	117–112	W 117–113	✓correct	−1
Apr 2	vs IND	80%	124–111	W 115–105	✓correct	−3
Mar 31	vs NYK	83%	117–102	L 116–130	✗missed	−29
Mar 28	at ATL	55%	118–116	L 118–120	✗missed	−4
Mar 26	vs HOU	92%	126–103	W 108–91	✓correct	−6
Mar 23	at BKN	60%	111–107	W 116–114	✓correct	−2
Mar 21	at BKN	65%	114–108	W 115–109	✓correct	±0
Mar 17	vs WAS	72%	115–106	W 117–94	✓correct	+14
Mar 15	vs PHI	58%	114–111	L 109–118	✗missed	−12
Mar 14	at CHA	65%	114–108	W 120–104	✓correct	+10
Mar 12	at CHA	83%	122–107	W 114–108	✓correct	−9
Mar 10	at MIA	60%	112–108	L 115–119	✗missed	−8
Mar 8	at MIA	55%	111–109	W 104–100	✓correct	+2
Mar 6	vs BOS	78%	115–103	W 118–114	✓correct	−8
Mar 4	vs DET	92%	120–97	W 114–90	✓correct	+1
Mar 1	at BOS	40%	109–113	L 113–117	✓correct	±0
Feb 26	vs TOR	68%	115–108	W 118–93	✓correct	+18
Feb 24	at ATL	53%	114–113	L 119–136	✗missed	−18
Feb 23	vs DEN	70%	117–109	L 109–115	✗missed	−14
Feb 15	at PHI	32%	104–111	L 112–118	✓correct	+1
Feb 13	vs SAS	88%	120–101	W 117–109	✓correct	−11
Feb 11	vs CHI	65%	116–110	W 97–89	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	at NOP	53%	111–110	W 118–107	✓correct	+10
Feb 8	vs DET	86%	121–104	W 113–85	✓correct	+11
Feb 6	at WAS	45%	110–112	W 114–91	✗missed	+25
Feb 5	at IND	70%	120–112	W 122–103	✓correct	+11
Feb 2	vs MEM	55%	110–108	W 128–113	✓correct	+13
Jan 31	vs MIA	58%	111–108	L 97–100	✗missed	−6
Jan 29	vs LAC	72%	119–110	W 122–99	✓correct	+14
Jan 27	at OKC	42%	109–112	L 100–112	✓correct	−9
Jan 26	at HOU	70%	119–111	W 113–95	✓correct	+10
Jan 24	at NYK	53%	111–110	L 103–105	✗missed	−3
Jan 21	vs MIL	53%	110–109	W 114–102	✓correct	+11
Jan 20	vs GSW	70%	119–111	L 114–120	✗missed	−14
Jan 18	at MEM	40%	111–115	L 114–115	✓correct	+3
Jan 16	vs NOP	58%	114–111	W 113–103	✓correct	+7
Jan 14	at MIN	63%	117–112	L 102–110	✗missed	−13
Jan 12	at POR	72%	118–109	W 119–113	✓correct	−3
Jan 10	at UTA	47%	116–117	L 114–116	✓correct	−1
Jan 8	at PHX	55%	109–107	W 112–98	✓correct	+12
Jan 6	at DEN	47%	110–111	L 108–121	✓correct	−12
Jan 4	vs PHX	72%	113–104	W 90–88	✓correct	−7
Jan 2	vs CHI	65%	114–108	W 145–134	✓correct	+5
Dec 31	at CHI	60%	114–110	W 103–102	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	at IND	63%	113–108	L 126–135	✗missed	−14
Dec 26	vs BKN	68%	116–109	L 117–125	✗missed	−15
Dec 23	vs TOR	70%	113–105	L 107–118	✗missed	−19
Dec 21	vs MIL	47%	108–109	W 114–106	✗missed	+9
Dec 19	vs UTA	72%	114–105	W 122–99	✓correct	+14
Dec 17	vs DAL	68%	115–108	W 100–99	✓correct	−6
Dec 16	vs IND	65%	114–108	W 118–112	✓correct	±0
Dec 14	at DAL	58%	110–107	W 105–90	✓correct	+12
Dec 12	at SAS	65%	113–107	L 111–112	✗missed	−7
Dec 10	vs OKC	53%	110–109	W 110–102	✓correct	+7
Dec 9	vs SAC	63%	111–106	L 95–106	✗missed	−16
Dec 6	vs LAL	70%	115–107	W 116–102	✓correct	+6
Dec 4	at NYK	60%	110–106	L 81–92	✗missed	−15
Dec 2	vs ORL	81%	115–101	W 107–96	✓correct	−3
Nov 30	vs PHI	60%	108–104	W 113–85	✓correct	+24
Nov 28	at TOR	53%	107–106	L 88–100	✗missed	−13
Nov 27	at DET	72%	118–109	W 102–94	✓correct	−1
Nov 25	at MIL	53%	108–107	L 102–117	✗missed	−16
Nov 23	vs POR	74%	113–103	W 114–96	✓correct	+8
Nov 21	vs ATL	55%	113–111	W 114–102	✓correct	+10
Nov 20	vs MIA	60%	111–107	W 113–87	✓correct	+22
Nov 18	vs CHA	74%	113–103	W 132–122	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	at MIL	42%	105–108	L 98–113	✓correct	−12
Nov 13	vs MIN	47%	112–113	L 124–129	✓correct	−4
Nov 11	at GSW	47%	113–114	L 101–106	✓correct	−4
Nov 9	at SAC	74%	115–105	L 120–127	✗missed	−17
Nov 7	at LAC	74%	110–100	L 117–119	✗missed	−12
Nov 6	at LAL	72%	117–108	W 114–100	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	at DET	72%	116–107	W 112–88	✓correct	+15
Nov 2	vs BOS	53%	110–109	W 114–113	✓correct	±0
Oct 30	vs NYK	65%	113–107	W 121–108	✓correct	+7
Oct 28	at BOS	47%	108–109	W 132–123	✗missed	+10
Oct 26	vs ORL	80%	118–105	W 103–92	✓correct	−2
Oct 23	vs WAS	60%	114–110	W 117–107	✓correct	+6
Oct 22	at CHI	58%	110–107	W 128–96	✓correct	+29
Oct 19	at TOR	53%	109–108	L 105–108	✗missed	−4

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 11.5; 9th smallest of 30

+0.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.8 to 1.5

13.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

70%

winner picked

382 games involving CLE

239 / 228.9

actual / expected wins

gap +10.1

0.207

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 382 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CLE win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs NYK	35%	108–113	L 97–109	✓correct	−7
Nov 6	vs PHI	46%	116–117	W 119–95	✗missed	+25
Nov 4	at OKC	39%	110–113	L 116–124	✓correct	−5
Nov 2	vs OKC	59%	113–110	L 112–117	✗missed	−8
Oct 31	at MIL	64%	121–116	W 136–111	✓correct	+20
Oct 29	at ATL	47%	114–115	L 111–114	✓correct	−2
Oct 28	vs WAS	74%	121–112	W 121–111	✓correct	+1
Oct 26	vs MIN	56%	114–112	W 127–125	✓correct	±0
Oct 24	vs BKN	80%	118–106	W 125–121	✓correct	−8
Oct 22	at PHI	53%	114–113	L 106–114	✗missed	−9
May 25 PO	vs NYK	39%	96–100	L 93–130	✓correct	−33
May 23 PO	vs NYK	47%	100–101	L 108–121	✓correct	−12
May 21 PO	at NYK	31%	104–111	L 93–109	✓correct	−9
May 19 PO	at NYK	34%	105–111	L 104–115	✓correct	−5
May 17 PO	at DET	26%	100–109	W 125–94	✗missed	+40
May 15 PO	vs DET	64%	107–102	L 94–115	✗missed	−26
May 13 PO	at DET	34%	104–110	W 117–113	✗missed	+10
May 11 PO	vs DET	61%	109–105	W 112–103	✓correct	+5
May 9 PO	vs DET	56%	108–106	W 116–109	✓correct	+5
May 7 PO	at DET	29%	108–116	L 97–107	✓correct	−2
May 5 PO	at DET	41%	108–111	L 101–111	✓correct	−7
May 3 PO	vs TOR	61%	108–104	W 114–102	✓correct	+8
May 1 PO	at TOR	35%	111–117	L 110–112	✓correct	+4
Apr 29 PO	vs TOR	61%	111–107	W 125–120	✓correct	+1
Apr 26 PO	at TOR	42%	110–113	L 89–93	✓correct	−1
Apr 23 PO	at TOR	47%	110–111	L 104–126	✓correct	−21
Apr 20 PO	vs TOR	61%	115–111	W 115–105	✓correct	+6
Apr 18 PO	vs TOR	61%	114–110	W 126–113	✓correct	+9
Apr 12	vs WAS	85%	126–111	W 130–117	✓correct	−2
Apr 10	at ATL	26%	113–122	L 102–124	✓correct	−13
Apr 8	vs ATL	53%	120–119	W 122–116	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	at MEM	74%	123–114	W 142–126	✓correct	+7
Apr 5	vs IND	87%	128–111	W 117–108	✓correct	−8
Apr 2	at GSW	61%	120–116	W 118–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 31	at LAL	39%	113–117	L 113–127	✓correct	−10
Mar 30	at UTA	74%	125–116	W 122–113	✓correct	±0
Mar 27	vs MIA	56%	121–119	W 149–128	✓correct	+19
Mar 25	vs MIA	59%	123–120	L 103–120	✗missed	−20
Mar 24	vs ORL	61%	118–114	W 136–131	✓correct	+1
Mar 21	at NOP	47%	115–116	W 111–106	✗missed	+6
Mar 19	at CHI	66%	119–113	W 115–110	✓correct	−1
Mar 17	at MIL	66%	115–109	W 123–116	✓correct	+1
Mar 15	vs DAL	74%	115–106	L 120–130	✗missed	−19
Mar 13	at DAL	78%	116–105	W 138–105	✓correct	+22
Mar 11	at ORL	53%	109–108	L 122–128	✗missed	−7
Mar 9	vs PHI	83%	121–107	W 115–101	✓correct	±0
Mar 8	vs BOS	44%	108–110	L 98–109	✓correct	−9
Mar 3	vs DET	44%	111–113	W 113–109	✗missed	+6
Mar 1	at BKN	78%	117–106	W 106–102	✓correct	−7
Feb 27	at DET	41%	112–115	L 119–122	✓correct	±0
Feb 25	at MIL	61%	114–110	L 116–118	✗missed	−6
Feb 24	vs NYK	56%	114–112	W 109–94	✓correct	+13
Feb 22	at OKC	47%	112–113	L 113–121	✓correct	−7
Feb 20	at CHA	58%	114–111	W 118–113	✓correct	+2
Feb 19	vs BKN	83%	120–106	W 112–84	✓correct	+14
Feb 11	vs WAS	86%	123–107	W 138–113	✓correct	+9
Feb 9	at DEN	61%	115–111	W 119–117	✓correct	−2
Feb 7	at SAC	74%	116–107	W 132–126	✓correct	−3
Feb 4	at LAC	56%	114–112	W 124–91	✓correct	+31
Feb 1	at POR	44%	114–116	W 130–111	✗missed	+21
Jan 30	at PHX	44%	111–113	L 113–126	✓correct	−11
Jan 28	vs LAL	53%	116–115	W 129–99	✓correct	+29
Jan 26	vs ORL	59%	119–116	W 114–98	✓correct	+13
Jan 24	at ORL	47%	117–118	W 119–105	✗missed	+15
Jan 23	vs SAC	69%	119–112	W 123–118	✓correct	−2
Jan 21	at CHA	36%	113–118	W 94–87	✗missed	+12
Jan 19	vs OKC	44%	116–118	L 104–136	✓correct	−30
Jan 16	at PHI	44%	117–119	W 117–115	✗missed	+4
Jan 14	at PHI	44%	116–118	W 133–107	✗missed	+28
Jan 12	vs UTA	78%	125–114	L 112–123	✗missed	−22
Jan 10	vs MIN	47%	119–120	W 146–134	✗missed	+13
Jan 8	at MIN	36%	115–120	L 122–131	✓correct	−4
Jan 6	at IND	69%	123–116	W 120–116	✓correct	−3
Jan 4	vs DET	47%	118–119	L 110–114	✓correct	−3
Jan 2	vs DEN	53%	121–120	W 113–108	✓correct	+4
Dec 31	vs PHX	53%	119–118	W 129–113	✓correct	+15
Dec 29	at SAS	31%	114–121	W 113–101	✗missed	+19
Dec 27	at HOU	34%	114–120	L 100–117	✓correct	−11
Dec 25	at NYK	41%	118–121	L 124–126	✓correct	+1
Dec 23	vs NOP	74%	125–116	W 141–118	✓correct	+14
Dec 22	vs CHA	67%	121–115	W 139–132	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	vs CHI	64%	120–115	L 125–136	✗missed	−16
Dec 17	at CHI	64%	120–115	L 111–127	✗missed	−21
Dec 14	vs CHA	80%	121–109	L 111–119	✗missed	−20
Dec 12	at WAS	81%	125–112	W 130–126	✓correct	−9
Dec 6	vs GSW	67%	120–114	L 94–99	✗missed	−11
Dec 5	vs SAS	56%	116–114	W 130–117	✓correct	+11
Dec 3	vs POR	67%	120–114	L 110–122	✗missed	−18
Dec 1	at IND	53%	116–115	W 135–119	✓correct	+15
Nov 30	vs BOS	61%	114–110	L 115–117	✗missed	−6
Nov 28	at ATL	47%	118–119	L 123–130	✓correct	−6
Nov 24	at TOR	36%	115–120	L 99–110	✓correct	−6
Nov 23	vs LAC	76%	120–110	W 120–105	✓correct	+5
Nov 21	vs IND	86%	128–112	W 120–109	✓correct	−5
Nov 19	vs HOU	53%	118–117	L 104–114	✗missed	−11
Nov 17	vs MIL	59%	121–118	W 118–106	✓correct	+9
Nov 15	vs MEM	74%	124–115	W 108–100	✓correct	−1
Nov 13	vs TOR	69%	122–115	L 113–126	✗missed	−20
Nov 12	at MIA	39%	117–121	W 130–116	✗missed	+18
Nov 10	at MIA	58%	120–117	L 138–140	✗missed	−5
Nov 8	vs CHI	61%	119–115	W 128–122	✓correct	+2
Nov 7	at WAS	80%	126–114	W 148–115	✓correct	+21
Nov 5	vs PHI	78%	122–111	W 132–121	✓correct	±0
Nov 2	vs ATL	56%	118–116	W 117–109	✓correct	+6
Oct 31	vs TOR	76%	124–114	L 101–112	✗missed	−21
Oct 29	at BOS	53%	114–113	L 105–125	✗missed	−21
Oct 27	at DET	56%	116–114	W 116–95	✓correct	+19
Oct 26	vs MIL	76%	123–113	W 118–113	✓correct	−5
Oct 24	at BKN	74%	119–110	W 131–124	✓correct	−2
Oct 22	at NYK	66%	116–110	L 111–119	✗missed	−14
May 13 PO	vs IND	64%	110–105	L 105–114	✗missed	−14
May 11 PO	at IND	56%	109–106	L 109–129	✗missed	−23
May 9 PO	at IND	64%	110–104	W 126–104	✓correct	+16
May 6 PO	vs IND	59%	108–105	L 119–120	✗missed	−4
May 4 PO	vs IND	75%	112–102	L 112–121	✗missed	−19
Apr 28 PO	at MIA	64%	111–105	W 138–83	✓correct	+49
Apr 26 PO	at MIA	54%	109–107	W 124–87	✓correct	+35
Apr 23 PO	vs MIA	64%	113–108	W 121–112	✓correct	+4
Apr 20 PO	vs MIA	69%	116–109	W 121–100	✓correct	+14
Apr 13	vs IND	54%	120–119	L 118–126	✗missed	−9
Apr 11	at NYK	43%	109–111	W 108–102	✗missed	+8
Apr 10	at IND	41%	116–119	L 112–114	✓correct	+1
Apr 8	vs CHI	69%	126–119	W 135–113	✓correct	+15
Apr 6	vs SAC	69%	119–112	L 113–120	✗missed	−14
Apr 4	at SAS	69%	119–111	W 114–113	✓correct	−7
Apr 2	vs NYK	62%	116–112	W 124–105	✓correct	+15
Mar 30	vs LAC	59%	116–113	W 127–122	✓correct	+2
Mar 28	at DET	51%	116–115	L 122–133	✗missed	−12
Mar 27	vs SAS	75%	122–112	W 124–116	✓correct	−2
Mar 25	at POR	59%	114–110	W 122–111	✓correct	+7
Mar 23	at UTA	80%	124–110	W 120–91	✓correct	+15
Mar 21	at PHX	66%	118–111	L 112–123	✗missed	−18
Mar 19	at SAC	66%	118–111	L 119–123	✗missed	−11
Mar 18	at LAC	59%	112–108	L 119–132	✗missed	−17
Mar 16	vs ORL	88%	122–104	L 103–108	✗missed	−23
Mar 14	at MEM	51%	120–119	W 133–124	✓correct	+8
Mar 11	vs BKN	84%	122–107	W 109–104	✓correct	−10
Mar 9	at MIL	54%	118–116	W 112–100	✓correct	+10
Mar 7	at CHA	83%	124–108	W 118–117	✓correct	−15
Mar 5	vs MIA	84%	122–107	W 112–107	✓correct	−10
Mar 4	at CHI	82%	125–110	W 139–117	✓correct	+7
Mar 2	vs POR	84%	125–110	W 133–129	✓correct	−11
Feb 28	at BOS	54%	113–111	W 123–116	✓correct	+5
Feb 25	at ORL	64%	118–112	W 122–82	✓correct	+34
Feb 23	vs MEM	67%	122–116	W 129–123	✓correct	±0
Feb 21	vs NYK	82%	128–114	W 142–105	✓correct	+23
Feb 20	at BKN	77%	114–102	W 110–97	✓correct	+1
Feb 12	at TOR	73%	120–110	W 131–108	✓correct	+13
Feb 10	vs MIN	77%	120–109	W 128–107	✓correct	+10
Feb 7	at WAS	66%	118–111	W 134–124	✓correct	+3
Feb 5	at DET	54%	118–116	W 118–115	✓correct	+1
Feb 4	vs BOS	59%	114–111	L 105–112	✗missed	−10
Feb 2	vs DAL	81%	124–111	W 144–101	✓correct	+30
Jan 30	vs ATL	81%	123–110	W 137–115	✓correct	+9
Jan 29	at MIA	56%	111–108	W 126–106	✓correct	+17
Jan 27	vs DET	67%	120–114	W 110–91	✓correct	+13
Jan 25	vs HOU	49%	114–115	L 131–135	✓correct	−3
Jan 24	at PHI	77%	116–104	L 129–132	✗missed	−15
Jan 22	at HOU	51%	114–113	L 108–109	✗missed	−2
Jan 20	vs PHX	71%	123–115	W 118–92	✓correct	+18
Jan 18	at MIN	66%	115–108	W 124–117	✓correct	±0
Jan 16	at OKC	29%	115–123	L 114–134	✓correct	−12
Jan 14	at IND	51%	118–117	W 127–117	✓correct	+9
Jan 12	vs IND	69%	123–116	L 93–108	✗missed	−22
Jan 9	vs TOR	91%	129–108	W 132–126	✓correct	−15
Jan 8	vs OKC	59%	118–115	W 129–122	✓correct	+4
Jan 5	vs CHA	89%	125–106	W 115–105	✓correct	−9
Jan 3	at DAL	66%	113–106	W 134–122	✓correct	+5
Dec 31	at LAL	54%	116–114	W 122–110	✓correct	+10
Dec 30	at GSW	66%	114–107	W 113–95	✓correct	+11
Dec 27	at DEN	54%	115–113	W 149–135	✓correct	+12
Dec 23	vs UTA	85%	126–110	W 124–113	✓correct	−5
Dec 21	vs PHI	81%	120–107	W 126–99	✓correct	+14
Dec 20	vs MIL	84%	122–107	W 124–101	✓correct	+8
Dec 16	at BKN	77%	118–106	W 130–101	✓correct	+17
Dec 13	vs WAS	89%	127–108	W 115–105	✓correct	−9
Dec 8	at MIA	56%	113–110	L 113–122	✗missed	−12
Dec 7	at CHA	79%	117–104	W 116–102	✓correct	+1
Dec 5	vs DEN	75%	123–113	W 126–114	✓correct	+2
Dec 3	vs WAS	86%	129–112	W 118–87	✓correct	+14
Dec 1	vs BOS	57%	112–110	W 115–111	✓correct	+2
Nov 29	at ATL	64%	122–116	L 101–117	✗missed	−22
Nov 27	vs ATL	82%	126–112	L 124–135	✗missed	−25
Nov 24	vs TOR	88%	124–106	W 122–108	✓correct	−4
Nov 20	vs NOP	79%	121–109	W 128–100	✓correct	+16
Nov 19	at BOS	43%	112–114	L 117–120	✓correct	−1
Nov 17	vs CHA	84%	121–106	W 128–114	✓correct	−1
Nov 15	vs CHI	75%	122–112	W 144–126	✓correct	+8
Nov 13	at PHI	69%	116–108	W 114–106	✓correct	±0
Nov 11	at CHI	61%	121–116	W 119–113	✓correct	+1
Nov 9	vs BKN	79%	121–109	W 105–100	✓correct	−7
Nov 8	vs GSW	64%	117–112	W 136–117	✓correct	+14
Nov 6	at NOP	66%	115–108	W 131–122	✓correct	+2
Nov 4	vs MIL	71%	117–109	W 116–114	✓correct	−6
Nov 2	at MIL	54%	113–111	W 114–113	✓correct	−1
Nov 1	vs ORL	67%	111–105	W 120–109	✓correct	+5
Oct 30	vs LAL	59%	111–108	W 134–110	✓correct	+21
Oct 28	at NYK	46%	110–111	W 110–104	✗missed	+7
Oct 26	at WAS	64%	117–111	W 135–116	✓correct	+13
Oct 25	vs DET	75%	113–103	W 113–101	✓correct	+2
Oct 23	at TOR	59%	113–109	W 136–106	✓correct	+26
May 15 PO	at BOS	35%	104–109	L 98–113	✓correct	−10
May 13 PO	vs BOS	57%	105–104	L 102–109	✗missed	−8
May 11 PO	vs BOS	57%	106–105	L 93–106	✗missed	−14
May 9 PO	at BOS	37%	105–109	W 118–94	✗missed	+28
May 7 PO	at BOS	30%	105–113	L 95–120	✓correct	−17
May 5 PO	vs ORL	57%	103–102	W 106–94	✓correct	+11
May 3 PO	at ORL	37%	103–107	L 96–103	✓correct	−3
Apr 30 PO	vs ORL	53%	106–107	W 104–103	✗missed	+2
Apr 27 PO	at ORL	37%	105–109	L 89–112	✓correct	−19
Apr 25 PO	at ORL	43%	106–107	L 83–121	✓correct	−37
Apr 22 PO	vs ORL	57%	110–109	W 96–86	✓correct	+9
Apr 20 PO	vs ORL	57%	114–113	W 97–83	✓correct	+13
Apr 14	vs CHA	73%	115–105	L 110–120	✗missed	−20
Apr 12	vs IND	47%	112–116	W 129–120	✗missed	+13
Apr 10	vs MEM	72%	117–108	W 110–98	✓correct	+3
Apr 7	at LAC	41%	108–110	L 118–120	✓correct	±0
Apr 6	at LAL	41%	113–115	L 97–116	✓correct	−17
Apr 3	at PHX	43%	110–111	L 101–122	✓correct	−20
Apr 2	at UTA	61%	116–108	W 129–113	✓correct	+8
Mar 31	at DEN	47%	108–107	L 101–130	✗missed	−30
Mar 29	vs PHI	67%	109–103	W 117–114	✓correct	−3
Mar 27	at CHA	55%	110–105	L 111–118	✗missed	−12
Mar 25	vs CHA	61%	107–104	W 115–92	✓correct	+20
Mar 24	at MIA	43%	104–105	L 84–121	✓correct	−36
Mar 22	at MIN	41%	106–108	L 91–104	✓correct	−11
Mar 20	vs MIA	61%	107–104	L 104–107	✗missed	−6
Mar 18	at IND	39%	112–115	W 108–103	✗missed	+8
Mar 16	at HOU	49%	111–109	L 103–117	✗missed	−16
Mar 13	at NOP	32%	107–114	W 116–95	✗missed	+28
Mar 11	vs PHX	51%	110–112	L 111–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 10	vs BKN	57%	106–105	L 101–120	✗missed	−20
Mar 8	vs MIN	59%	107–105	W 113–104	✓correct	+7
Mar 6	at ATL	47%	113–112	L 101–112	✗missed	−12
Mar 5	vs BOS	51%	106–108	W 105–104	✗missed	+3
Mar 3	vs NYK	57%	111–110	L 98–107	✗missed	−10
Mar 1	at DET	61%	118–110	W 110–100	✓correct	+2
Feb 28	at CHI	53%	116–112	L 123–132	✗missed	−13
Feb 27	vs DAL	63%	116–112	W 121–119	✓correct	−2
Feb 25	at WAS	63%	123–114	W 114–105	✓correct	±0
Feb 23	at PHI	49%	116–114	L 97–104	✗missed	−9
Feb 22	vs ORL	72%	116–107	L 109–116	✗missed	−16
Feb 14	vs CHI	67%	116–110	W 108–105	✓correct	−3
Feb 12	vs PHI	70%	120–112	L 121–123	✗missed	−10
Feb 10	at TOR	53%	119–115	W 119–95	✓correct	+20
Feb 8	at BKN	51%	117–114	W 118–95	✓correct	+20
Feb 7	at WAS	59%	120–113	W 114–106	✓correct	+1
Feb 5	vs SAC	67%	118–112	W 136–110	✓correct	+20
Feb 3	at SAS	57%	118–112	W 117–101	✓correct	+10
Feb 1	at MEM	53%	112–108	W 108–101	✓correct	+3
Jan 31	vs DET	86%	125–105	W 128–121	✓correct	−13
Jan 29	vs LAC	57%	112–111	W 118–108	✓correct	+9
Jan 26	at MIL	41%	114–116	W 112–100	✗missed	+14
Jan 24	at MIL	41%	114–116	L 116–126	✓correct	−8
Jan 22	at ORL	49%	109–107	W 126–99	✓correct	+25
Jan 20	at ATL	49%	117–115	W 116–95	✓correct	+19
Jan 17	vs MIL	63%	116–112	W 135–95	✓correct	+36
Jan 15	vs CHI	65%	116–111	W 109–91	✓correct	+13
Jan 11	vs BKN	68%	120–113	W 111–102	✓correct	+2
Jan 7	vs SAS	82%	126–110	W 117–115	✓correct	−14
Jan 5	vs WAS	73%	122–112	W 114–90	✓correct	+14
Jan 3	vs WAS	73%	123–113	W 140–101	✓correct	+29
Jan 1	at TOR	49%	116–114	L 121–124	✗missed	−5
Dec 29	vs MIL	51%	113–115	L 111–119	✓correct	−6
Dec 27	at DAL	35%	114–119	W 113–110	✗missed	+8
Dec 23	at CHI	35%	110–115	W 109–95	✗missed	+19
Dec 21	vs NOP	53%	114–115	L 104–123	✓correct	−18
Dec 20	vs UTA	72%	114–105	W 124–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 18	vs HOU	59%	111–109	W 135–130	✓correct	+3
Dec 16	vs ATL	63%	117–113	W 127–119	✓correct	+4
Dec 14	at BOS	37%	113–117	L 107–116	✓correct	−5
Dec 12	at BOS	32%	112–119	L 113–120	✓correct	±0
Dec 11	at ORL	32%	113–120	L 94–104	✓correct	−3
Dec 8	at MIA	41%	112–114	W 111–99	✗missed	+14
Dec 6	vs ORL	61%	116–113	W 121–111	✓correct	+7
Dec 2	at DET	57%	118–112	W 110–101	✓correct	+3
Nov 30	vs POR	68%	115–108	L 95–103	✗missed	−15
Nov 28	vs ATL	63%	119–115	W 128–105	✓correct	+19
Nov 26	vs TOR	59%	118–116	W 105–102	✓correct	+1
Nov 25	vs LAL	65%	117–112	L 115–121	✗missed	−11
Nov 22	vs MIA	57%	111–110	L 96–129	✗missed	−34
Nov 21	at PHI	34%	111–117	W 122–119	✗missed	+9
Nov 19	vs DEN	49%	109–112	W 121–109	✗missed	+15
Nov 17	vs DET	70%	119–111	W 108–100	✓correct	±0
Nov 15	at POR	49%	112–110	W 109–95	✓correct	+12
Nov 13	at SAC	43%	111–112	L 120–132	✓correct	−11
Nov 11	at GSW	35%	110–115	W 118–110	✗missed	+13
Nov 8	at OKC	35%	111–116	L 120–128	✓correct	−3
Nov 5	vs GSW	59%	111–109	W 115–104	✓correct	+9
Nov 3	at IND	41%	115–117	L 116–121	✓correct	−3
Nov 1	at NYK	37%	105–109	W 95–89	✗missed	+10
Oct 31	vs NYK	65%	108–103	L 91–109	✗missed	−23
Oct 28	vs IND	70%	118–110	L 113–125	✗missed	−20
Oct 27	vs OKC	63%	114–110	L 105–108	✗missed	−7
Oct 25	at BKN	41%	108–110	W 114–113	✗missed	+3
Apr 26 PO	vs NYK	58%	107–104	L 95–106	✗missed	−14
Apr 23 PO	at NYK	42%	105–108	L 93–102	✓correct	−6
Apr 21 PO	at NYK	45%	108–110	L 79–99	✓correct	−18
Apr 18 PO	vs NYK	72%	116–107	W 107–90	✓correct	+8
Apr 15 PO	vs NYK	76%	118–107	L 97–101	✗missed	−15
Apr 9	vs CHA	72%	119–110	L 95–106	✗missed	−20
Apr 6	at ORL	68%	120–113	W 118–94	✓correct	+17
Apr 4	at ORL	63%	117–112	W 117–113	✓correct	−1
Apr 2	vs IND	80%	124–111	W 115–105	✓correct	−3
Mar 31	vs NYK	83%	117–102	L 116–130	✗missed	−29
Mar 28	at ATL	55%	118–116	L 118–120	✗missed	−4
Mar 26	vs HOU	92%	126–103	W 108–91	✓correct	−6
Mar 23	at BKN	60%	111–107	W 116–114	✓correct	−2
Mar 21	at BKN	65%	114–108	W 115–109	✓correct	±0
Mar 17	vs WAS	72%	115–106	W 117–94	✓correct	+14
Mar 15	vs PHI	58%	114–111	L 109–118	✗missed	−12
Mar 14	at CHA	65%	114–108	W 120–104	✓correct	+10
Mar 12	at CHA	83%	122–107	W 114–108	✓correct	−9
Mar 10	at MIA	60%	112–108	L 115–119	✗missed	−8
Mar 8	at MIA	55%	111–109	W 104–100	✓correct	+2
Mar 6	vs BOS	78%	115–103	W 118–114	✓correct	−8
Mar 4	vs DET	92%	120–97	W 114–90	✓correct	+1
Mar 1	at BOS	40%	109–113	L 113–117	✓correct	±0
Feb 26	vs TOR	68%	115–108	W 118–93	✓correct	+18
Feb 24	at ATL	53%	114–113	L 119–136	✗missed	−18
Feb 23	vs DEN	70%	117–109	L 109–115	✗missed	−14
Feb 15	at PHI	32%	104–111	L 112–118	✓correct	+1
Feb 13	vs SAS	88%	120–101	W 117–109	✓correct	−11
Feb 11	vs CHI	65%	116–110	W 97–89	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	at NOP	53%	111–110	W 118–107	✓correct	+10
Feb 8	vs DET	86%	121–104	W 113–85	✓correct	+11
Feb 6	at WAS	45%	110–112	W 114–91	✗missed	+25
Feb 5	at IND	70%	120–112	W 122–103	✓correct	+11
Feb 2	vs MEM	55%	110–108	W 128–113	✓correct	+13
Jan 31	vs MIA	58%	111–108	L 97–100	✗missed	−6
Jan 29	vs LAC	72%	119–110	W 122–99	✓correct	+14
Jan 27	at OKC	42%	109–112	L 100–112	✓correct	−9
Jan 26	at HOU	70%	119–111	W 113–95	✓correct	+10
Jan 24	at NYK	53%	111–110	L 103–105	✗missed	−3
Jan 21	vs MIL	53%	110–109	W 114–102	✓correct	+11
Jan 20	vs GSW	70%	119–111	L 114–120	✗missed	−14
Jan 18	at MEM	40%	111–115	L 114–115	✓correct	+3
Jan 16	vs NOP	58%	114–111	W 113–103	✓correct	+7
Jan 14	at MIN	63%	117–112	L 102–110	✗missed	−13
Jan 12	at POR	72%	118–109	W 119–113	✓correct	−3
Jan 10	at UTA	47%	116–117	L 114–116	✓correct	−1
Jan 8	at PHX	55%	109–107	W 112–98	✓correct	+12
Jan 6	at DEN	47%	110–111	L 108–121	✓correct	−12
Jan 4	vs PHX	72%	113–104	W 90–88	✓correct	−7
Jan 2	vs CHI	65%	114–108	W 145–134	✓correct	+5
Dec 31	at CHI	60%	114–110	W 103–102	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	at IND	63%	113–108	L 126–135	✗missed	−14
Dec 26	vs BKN	68%	116–109	L 117–125	✗missed	−15
Dec 23	vs TOR	70%	113–105	L 107–118	✗missed	−19
Dec 21	vs MIL	47%	108–109	W 114–106	✗missed	+9
Dec 19	vs UTA	72%	114–105	W 122–99	✓correct	+14
Dec 17	vs DAL	68%	115–108	W 100–99	✓correct	−6
Dec 16	vs IND	65%	114–108	W 118–112	✓correct	±0
Dec 14	at DAL	58%	110–107	W 105–90	✓correct	+12
Dec 12	at SAS	65%	113–107	L 111–112	✗missed	−7
Dec 10	vs OKC	53%	110–109	W 110–102	✓correct	+7
Dec 9	vs SAC	63%	111–106	L 95–106	✗missed	−16
Dec 6	vs LAL	70%	115–107	W 116–102	✓correct	+6
Dec 4	at NYK	60%	110–106	L 81–92	✗missed	−15
Dec 2	vs ORL	81%	115–101	W 107–96	✓correct	−3
Nov 30	vs PHI	60%	108–104	W 113–85	✓correct	+24
Nov 28	at TOR	53%	107–106	L 88–100	✗missed	−13
Nov 27	at DET	72%	118–109	W 102–94	✓correct	−1
Nov 25	at MIL	53%	108–107	L 102–117	✗missed	−16
Nov 23	vs POR	74%	113–103	W 114–96	✓correct	+8
Nov 21	vs ATL	55%	113–111	W 114–102	✓correct	+10
Nov 20	vs MIA	60%	111–107	W 113–87	✓correct	+22
Nov 18	vs CHA	74%	113–103	W 132–122	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	at MIL	42%	105–108	L 98–113	✓correct	−12
Nov 13	vs MIN	47%	112–113	L 124–129	✓correct	−4
Nov 11	at GSW	47%	113–114	L 101–106	✓correct	−4
Nov 9	at SAC	74%	115–105	L 120–127	✗missed	−17
Nov 7	at LAC	74%	110–100	L 117–119	✗missed	−12
Nov 6	at LAL	72%	117–108	W 114–100	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	at DET	72%	116–107	W 112–88	✓correct	+15
Nov 2	vs BOS	53%	110–109	W 114–113	✓correct	±0
Oct 30	vs NYK	65%	113–107	W 121–108	✓correct	+7
Oct 28	at BOS	47%	108–109	W 132–123	✗missed	+10
Oct 26	vs ORL	80%	118–105	W 103–92	✓correct	−2
Oct 23	vs WAS	60%	114–110	W 117–107	✓correct	+6
Oct 22	at CHI	58%	110–107	W 128–96	✓correct	+29
Oct 19	at TOR	53%	109–108	L 105–108	✗missed	−4

Surprise games

All CLE surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected CLE wins

26%CLE beat DET125–94May 17, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast DET109–100 · missed margin by 40
31%CLE beat SAS113–101Dec 29, 2025-26 · forecast SAS121–114 · missed margin by 19
32%CLE beat NOP116–95Mar 13, 2023-24 · forecast NOP114–107 · missed margin by 28
34%CLE beat DET117–113May 13, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast DET110–104 · missed margin by 10
34%CLE beat PHI122–119Nov 21, 2023-24 · forecast PHI117–111 · missed margin by 9

Most unexpected CLE losses

12%ORL beat CLE108–103Mar 16, 2024-25 · forecast CLE122–104 · missed margin by 23
17%NYK beat CLE130–116Mar 31, 2022-23 · forecast CLE117–102 · missed margin by 29
18%ATL beat CLE135–124Nov 27, 2024-25 · forecast CLE126–112 · missed margin by 25
20%CHA beat CLE119–111Dec 14, 2025-26 · forecast CLE121–109 · missed margin by 20
22%UTA beat CLE123–112Jan 12, 2025-26 · forecast CLE125–114 · missed margin by 22

Largest margin misses

64%CLE beat MIA138–83Apr 28, 2024-25 · playoffs · forecast CLE111–105 · missed margin by 49
26%CLE beat DET125–94May 17, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast DET109–100 · missed margin by 40
57%ORL beat CLE121–83Apr 25, 2023-24 · playoffs · forecast ORL107–106 · missed margin by 37
57%MIA beat CLE121–84Mar 24, 2023-24 · forecast MIA105–104 · missed margin by 36
63%CLE beat MIL135–95Jan 17, 2023-24 · forecast CLE116–112 · missed margin by 36

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected CLE wins

Most unexpected CLE losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions