The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 22

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

Thursday, October 22, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

DEN 0–0@OKC 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 31 percent, OKC 69 percent. DEN Nuggets 31% proj. 110 · final 84 OKC Thunder · home 69% proj. 117 · final 96
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 110 84 −26
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) 117 96 −21

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans OKC

  • Home court+2.1 OKCWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+3.0 OKCElo OKC 1698, DEN 1591; season margin OKC +10.7, DEN +4.5.
  • Recent form+1.1 OKCLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: OKC scores 112.9 and allows 112.0; DEN scores 116.5 and allows 114.2.

Together: OKC by 7, a 69% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

OKC is 1–0, winning by 12 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 104). Last season they were a +11 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.8. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.2, free throws allowed −1.3.

DEN hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +4 team. Their offense turns it over on 10.8% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.1, getting to the line +1.1. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.7% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.4.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors OKC; left favors DEN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +3.0, Recent form +1.1, Player availability +0.1, No playoff context +0.1, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +6.5 for OKC. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +3.0 Recent form +1.1 Player availability +0.1 No playoff context +0.1 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +6.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +6.5. The 69% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDENOKCEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15911698 +0.4
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +177 +2.5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.5+10.7 +1.1
Games played this season 01 −1.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.5112.9 +0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.2112.0 +0.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.6 +0.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 52 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueOKC ptsDEN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court177.0+1.07−1.46+2.52
Season scoring margin (home)10.7+1.15−0.48+1.63
Games played (away)0.0+0.36+1.48−1.12
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.77−0.15+0.92
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.30+0.47−0.77
Season scoring margin (away)4.5−0.31+0.17−0.48
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)114.2+0.37−0.11+0.48
Elo rating (home)1698.1+0.33−0.12+0.45
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)112.0−0.49−0.92+0.43
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)116.5+0.13−0.27+0.40
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.9−0.44−0.12−0.32
Home series wins0.0+0.22+0.05+0.17
Games played (home)1.0+0.72+0.61+0.11
Combined pace, last 1098.6−1.09−1.19+0.10
Elo rating (away)1591.1−0.08−0.01−0.06
Series pressure0.0−0.04+0.02−0.06
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Rest days (away)5.0−0.10−0.07−0.04
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.02+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1591OKC16982.9 pts toward OKC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1591

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1622 → started this one at 1591
  2. No games played yet this season.

OKC1698

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
  2. This season's 1 game: +15.8
  • W@SAS116–104+15.8
Season scoring marginDEN+4.5OKC+10.70.1 pts toward OKC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+4.5

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+4.5) = +4.5

OKC+10.7

Scores 116.0, allows 104.0 over 1 game: +12.0 a game.

5% this season (+12.0) + 95% last season (+10.7) = +10.7

Offensive rating, last 10DEN116.5OKC112.90.1 pts toward OKC

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DEN116.5scored, +1.9 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.5%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.2%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2470.210+1.1
Everything else+0.9

OKC112.9scored, −1.7 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.5%−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.2%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2100.210±0.0
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10DEN114.2OKC112.00.9 pts toward OKC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

DEN114.2allowed, −0.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.2%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%26.1%+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.210+0.6
Everything else+0.5

OKC112.0allowed, −2.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.6%54.5%+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2550.210−1.3
Everything else−1.6
Pace, last 10average 98.60.1 pts toward OKC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 99.5 and OKC 97.7 → average 98.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0OKC0.00.1 pts toward OKC

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestDEN5 daysOKC2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN5days

Last played Apr 30 against MIN (175 days, capped at 5).

OKC2days

Last played Oct 20 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 30@MIN98–11034-7510-2720-25136105.4118.393.0
Apr 27MIN125–11347-8311-2920-25165122.5109.7102.5
Apr 25@MIN96–11233-876-2824-281012101.1119.194.5
Apr 23@MIN96–11328-828-3232-4010695.0111.9101.0
Apr 20MIN114–11938-8615-4123-3095110.7116.7102.5
Apr 18MIN116–10538-8710-3630-33138113.7101.9102.5
Apr 12@SAS128–11850-10011-3017-221012126.7115.7101.5
Apr 10OKC127–10747-9321-4312-131610124.5103.9102.5
Apr 8MEM136–11953-9014-3616-21129136.0119.0100.0
Apr 6POR137–13252-10112-3821-241217129.2125.795.5

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 20@SAS116–10443-9514-3116-201110113.7102.0102.0
May 30SAS103–11137-8312-3517-221310109.6120.793.0
May 28@SAS91–11835-9410-4011-12121291.0119.299.5
May 26SAS127–11440-8314-3233-381614124.5112.9101.5
May 24@SAS82–10330-916-3316-18171180.4102.0101.5
May 22@SAS123–10839-8117-3828-33107124.2111.398.0
May 20SAS122–11345-9413-3619-24917124.5116.597.5
May 18SAS115–12241-10117-4516-19149102.7106.193.9
May 11@LAL115–11042-8111-3120-24116117.3112.298.0
May 9@LAL131–10853-9417-388-10912140.9117.492.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
69%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
OKC was the forecast favorite
5 pts
margin miss
forecast +7, actual +12 for OKC
100th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
102nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENOKC
Final score8496
Field goals31–82 · 37.8%36–95 · 37.9%
Three-pointers8–30 · 26.7%11–43 · 25.6%
Free throws14–22 · 63.6%13–14 · 92.9%
Rebounds5346
Assists1722
Turnovers2212
Steals712
Blocks29

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)+7+12+5
Total points227180−47
DEN points11084−26
OKC points11796−21

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Apr 30 at MIN L 98–110
Apr 27 vs MIN W 125–113
Apr 25 at MIN L 96–112
Apr 23 at MIN L 96–113
Apr 20 vs MIN L 114–119

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Oct 20 at SAS W 116–104
May 30 vs SAS L 103–111
May 28 at SAS L 91–118
May 26 vs SAS W 127–114
May 24 at SAS L 82–103

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 10 2025-26 OKC at DEN OKC 107 – 127 DEN
Mar 9 2025-26 DEN at OKC DEN 126 – 129 OKC
Feb 27 2025-26 DEN at OKC DEN 121 – 127 OKC
Feb 1 2025-26 OKC at DEN OKC 121 – 111 DEN
May 18 2024-25 DEN at OKC DEN 93 – 125 OKC