Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Milwaukee Bucks MIL

1–9

2026-27 record

1330

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

106.1

Offensive rating

last 10 games

118.8

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

103.0

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded MIL game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 229 of 353 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of MIL's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. MIL ranks 28 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 7:30 PM ET

MIL Milwaukee Bucks 1–9 –

@NYK New York Knicks 5–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 8:00 PM ET

LAL Los Angeles Lakers 9–2 –

@MIL Milwaukee Bucks 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 7:00 PM ET

MIL Milwaukee Bucks 1–9 –

@ORL Orlando Magic 2–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked MIL games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

9.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 5.1 to 13.4

−7.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -12.6 to -2.7

10.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

90%

winner picked

10 games involving MIL

1 / 3.5

actual / expected wins

gap −2.5

0.122

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs BOS	25%	111–120	L 97–117	✓correct	−11
Nov 6	vs TOR	30%	115–122	L 107–121	✓correct	−7
Nov 4	at BOS	28%	110–118	L 102–109	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	at MIN	20%	110–122	L 100–112	✓correct	±0
Oct 31	vs CLE	36%	116–121	L 111–136	✓correct	−20
Oct 28	vs HOU	36%	110–115	L 100–132	✓correct	−27
Oct 26	vs IND	56%	120–118	W 110–102	✓correct	+6
Oct 24	at PHI	24%	109–119	L 116–127	✓correct	−1
Oct 23	vs CHI	53%	122–121	L 125–132	✗missed	−8
Oct 21	at WAS	41%	121–124	L 116–128	✓correct	−9

2025-26

Across 82 graded games, MIL finished an average of 3.6 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -6.3 to -0.8).

12.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.1 to 14.6; 28th smallest of 30

−3.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -6.3 to -0.8

15.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

60%

winner picked

82 games involving MIL

32 / 35.6

actual / expected wins

gap −3.6

0.220

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at PHI	19%	108–121	L 106–126	✓correct	−7
Apr 10	vs BKN	67%	116–110	W 125–108	✓correct	+11
Apr 8	at DET	17%	104–118	L 111–137	✓correct	−12
Apr 7	at BKN	53%	112–111	L 90–96	✗missed	−7
Apr 5	vs MEM	59%	116–113	W 131–115	✓correct	+13
Apr 3	vs BOS	17%	105–119	L 101–133	✓correct	−18
Apr 1	at HOU	14%	103–119	L 113–119	✓correct	+10
Mar 31	vs DAL	47%	116–117	W 123–99	✗missed	+25
Mar 29	vs LAC	19%	107–120	L 113–127	✓correct	−1
Mar 28	vs SAS	19%	107–120	L 95–127	✓correct	−19
Mar 25	at POR	17%	107–121	L 99–130	✓correct	−17
Mar 23	at LAC	24%	111–121	L 96–129	✓correct	−23
Mar 21	at PHX	26%	107–116	W 108–105	✗missed	+12
Mar 19	at UTA	56%	112–110	L 96–128	✗missed	−34
Mar 17	vs CLE	34%	109–115	L 116–123	✓correct	−1
Mar 15	vs IND	64%	117–112	W 134–123	✓correct	+6
Mar 14	at ATL	17%	109–123	L 99–122	✓correct	−9
Mar 12	at MIA	17%	111–125	L 105–112	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	vs PHX	39%	108–112	L 114–129	✓correct	−11
Mar 8	vs ORL	31%	106–113	L 91–130	✓correct	−32
Mar 7	vs UTA	71%	120–112	W 113–99	✓correct	+6
Mar 4	vs ATL	36%	113–118	L 113–131	✓correct	−13
Mar 2	vs BOS	34%	105–111	L 81–108	✓correct	−21
Mar 1	at CHI	69%	115–108	L 97–120	✗missed	−30
Feb 27	vs NYK	39%	109–113	L 98–127	✓correct	−25
Feb 25	vs CLE	39%	110–114	W 118–116	✗missed	+6
Feb 24	vs MIA	39%	115–119	W 128–117	✗missed	+15
Feb 22	vs TOR	47%	113–114	L 94–122	✓correct	−27
Feb 20	at NOP	56%	111–109	W 139–118	✓correct	+19
Feb 12	at OKC	20%	104–116	W 110–93	✗missed	+29
Feb 11	at ORL	34%	111–117	W 116–108	✗missed	+14
Feb 9	at ORL	41%	113–116	L 99–118	✓correct	−16
Feb 6	vs IND	56%	116–114	W 105–99	✓correct	+4
Feb 4	vs NOP	42%	109–112	W 141–137	✗missed	+7
Feb 3	vs CHI	44%	111–113	W 131–115	✗missed	+18
Feb 1	at BOS	19%	103–116	L 79–107	✓correct	−15
Jan 29	at WAS	53%	113–112	L 99–109	✗missed	−11
Jan 27	at PHI	39%	110–114	L 122–139	✓correct	−13
Jan 23	vs DEN	42%	109–112	L 100–102	✓correct	+1
Jan 21	vs OKC	42%	113–116	L 102–122	✓correct	−17
Jan 19	at ATL	39%	113–117	W 112–110	✗missed	+6
Jan 15	at SAS	34%	111–117	L 101–119	✓correct	−12
Jan 13	vs MIN	53%	116–115	L 106–139	✗missed	−34
Jan 11	at DEN	41%	112–115	L 104–108	✓correct	−1
Jan 9	at LAL	47%	113–114	W 105–101	✗missed	+5
Jan 7	at GSW	36%	111–116	L 113–120	✓correct	−2
Jan 4	at SAC	53%	114–113	W 115–98	✓correct	+16
Jan 2	vs CHA	56%	115–113	W 122–121	✓correct	−1
Dec 31	vs WAS	74%	119–110	L 113–114	✗missed	−10
Dec 29	at CHA	44%	112–114	W 123–113	✗missed	+12
Dec 27	at CHI	34%	114–120	W 112–103	✗missed	+15
Dec 26	at MEM	31%	111–118	L 104–125	✓correct	−14
Dec 23	at IND	47%	113–114	W 111–94	✗missed	+18
Dec 21	at MIN	26%	110–119	L 100–103	✓correct	+6
Dec 18	vs TOR	44%	110–112	L 105–111	✓correct	−4
Dec 14	at BKN	56%	112–110	L 82–127	✗missed	−47
Dec 11	vs BOS	31%	109–116	W 116–101	✗missed	+22
Dec 6	at DET	22%	112–123	L 112–124	✓correct	−1
Dec 5	vs PHI	61%	114–110	L 101–116	✗missed	−19
Dec 3	vs DET	36%	114–119	W 113–109	✗missed	+9
Dec 1	at WAS	76%	120–110	L 126–129	✗missed	−13
Nov 29	vs BKN	76%	116–106	W 116–99	✓correct	+7
Nov 28	at NYK	31%	114–121	L 109–118	✓correct	−2
Nov 26	at MIA	26%	115–124	L 103–106	✓correct	+6
Nov 24	vs POR	53%	117–116	L 103–115	✗missed	−13
Nov 22	vs DET	34%	114–120	L 116–129	✓correct	−7
Nov 20	vs PHI	67%	118–112	L 114–123	✗missed	−15
Nov 17	at CLE	41%	118–121	L 106–118	✓correct	−9
Nov 15	vs LAL	53%	119–118	L 95–119	✗missed	−25
Nov 14	vs CHA	76%	123–113	W 147–134	✓correct	+3
Nov 12	at CHA	78%	123–112	L 100–111	✗missed	−22
Nov 10	at DAL	53%	119–118	W 116–114	✓correct	+1
Nov 9	vs HOU	47%	117–118	L 115–122	✓correct	−6
Nov 7	vs CHI	47%	117–118	W 126–110	✗missed	+17
Nov 4	at TOR	53%	119–118	L 100–128	✗missed	−29
Nov 3	at IND	56%	114–112	W 117–115	✓correct	±0
Nov 1	vs SAC	64%	118–113	L 133–135	✗missed	−7
Oct 30	vs GSW	59%	116–113	W 120–110	✓correct	+7
Oct 28	vs NYK	47%	115–116	W 121–111	✗missed	+11
Oct 26	at CLE	24%	113–123	L 113–118	✓correct	+5
Oct 24	at TOR	47%	117–118	W 122–116	✗missed	+7
Oct 22	vs WAS	78%	118–107	W 133–120	✓correct	+2

2024-25

10.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.9 to 11.8; 9th smallest of 30

+0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.2 to 2.3

13.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

66%

winner picked

86 games involving MIL

48 / 46.6

actual / expected wins

gap +1.4

0.214

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 86 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 29 PO	at IND	36%	108–113	L 118–119	✓correct	+4
Apr 27 PO	vs IND	64%	113–108	L 103–129	✗missed	−31
Apr 25 PO	vs IND	59%	113–110	W 117–101	✓correct	+13
Apr 22 PO	at IND	29%	109–117	L 115–123	✓correct	±0
Apr 19 PO	at IND	29%	111–119	L 98–117	✓correct	−11
Apr 13	vs DET	46%	115–117	W 140–133	✗missed	+9
Apr 11	at DET	54%	117–115	W 125–119	✓correct	+4
Apr 10	vs NOP	88%	122–104	W 136–111	✓correct	+7
Apr 8	vs MIN	39%	109–114	W 110–103	✗missed	+12
Apr 6	at NOP	79%	120–107	W 111–107	✓correct	−9
Apr 5	at MIA	46%	111–112	W 121–115	✗missed	+7
Apr 3	at PHI	73%	120–110	W 126–113	✓correct	+3
Apr 1	vs PHX	64%	114–109	W 133–123	✓correct	+5
Mar 30	vs ATL	64%	118–113	L 124–145	✗missed	−26
Mar 28	vs NYK	57%	109–107	L 107–116	✗missed	−11
Mar 26	at DEN	38%	113–117	L 117–127	✓correct	−6
Mar 24	at PHX	46%	113–114	L 106–108	✓correct	−1
Mar 22	at SAC	54%	116–114	W 114–108	✓correct	+4
Mar 20	at LAL	56%	116–113	W 118–89	✓correct	+26
Mar 18	at GSW	43%	115–117	L 93–104	✓correct	−9
Mar 16	vs OKC	54%	121–120	L 105–121	✗missed	−17
Mar 15	vs IND	67%	119–113	W 126–119	✓correct	+1
Mar 13	vs LAL	64%	115–110	W 126–106	✓correct	+15
Mar 11	at IND	38%	115–119	L 114–115	✓correct	+3
Mar 9	vs CLE	46%	116–118	L 100–112	✓correct	−10
Mar 8	vs ORL	69%	117–110	L 109–111	✗missed	−9
Mar 5	vs DAL	69%	118–111	W 137–107	✓correct	+23
Mar 4	at ATL	54%	120–118	W 127–121	✓correct	+4
Mar 1	at DAL	38%	112–116	W 132–117	✗missed	+19
Feb 27	vs DEN	49%	113–114	W 121–112	✗missed	+10
Feb 25	at HOU	41%	112–115	L 97–100	✓correct	±0
Feb 23	vs MIA	59%	114–111	W 120–113	✓correct	+4
Feb 21	at WAS	51%	120–119	W 104–101	✓correct	+2
Feb 20	vs LAC	49%	116–117	W 116–110	✗missed	+7
Feb 12	at MIN	36%	114–119	W 103–101	✗missed	+7
Feb 10	vs GSW	46%	118–120	L 111–125	✓correct	−12
Feb 9	vs PHI	57%	116–114	W 135–127	✓correct	+6
Feb 7	at ATL	56%	120–117	L 110–115	✗missed	−8
Feb 5	at CHA	64%	118–112	W 112–102	✓correct	+4
Feb 3	at OKC	23%	115–126	L 96–125	✓correct	−18
Feb 2	vs MEM	57%	124–122	L 119–132	✗missed	−15
Jan 31	at SAS	64%	122–116	L 118–144	✗missed	−32
Jan 28	at POR	56%	114–111	L 112–125	✗missed	−16
Jan 27	at UTA	66%	117–110	W 125–110	✓correct	+8
Jan 25	at LAC	38%	110–114	L 117–127	✓correct	−6
Jan 23	vs MIA	62%	115–111	W 125–96	✓correct	+25
Jan 19	vs PHI	77%	119–108	W 123–109	✓correct	+3
Jan 17	vs TOR	81%	121–108	W 130–112	✓correct	+5
Jan 15	vs ORL	69%	109–102	W 122–93	✓correct	+22
Jan 14	vs SAC	54%	115–114	W 130–115	✓correct	+14
Jan 12	at NYK	27%	109–118	L 106–140	✓correct	−25
Jan 10	at ORL	54%	109–107	W 109–106	✓correct	+1
Jan 8	vs SAS	69%	118–111	W 121–105	✓correct	+9
Jan 6	at TOR	61%	117–112	W 128–104	✓correct	+19
Jan 4	vs POR	81%	121–108	L 102–105	✗missed	−16
Jan 2	vs BKN	73%	116–107	L 110–113	✗missed	−12
Dec 31	at IND	33%	112–118	W 120–112	✗missed	+14
Dec 28	at CHI	51%	114–113	L 111–116	✗missed	−6
Dec 26	vs BKN	73%	116–107	L 105–111	✗missed	−15
Dec 23	at CHI	36%	114–119	W 112–91	✗missed	+26
Dec 21	vs WAS	79%	121–109	W 112–101	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	at CLE	16%	107–122	L 101–124	✓correct	−8
Dec 10	vs ORL	64%	113–108	W 114–109	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	at BKN	59%	114–110	W 118–113	✓correct	+1
Dec 6	at BOS	29%	109–117	L 105–111	✓correct	+2
Dec 4	vs ATL	64%	120–115	L 104–119	✗missed	−20
Dec 3	at DET	59%	114–110	W 128–107	✓correct	+17
Nov 30	vs WAS	81%	121–108	W 124–114	✓correct	−3
Nov 26	at MIA	41%	110–113	W 106–103	✗missed	+6
Nov 23	vs CHA	77%	114–103	W 125–119	✓correct	−5
Nov 22	vs IND	62%	115–111	W 129–117	✓correct	+8
Nov 20	vs CHI	67%	120–114	W 122–106	✓correct	+10
Nov 18	vs HOU	46%	112–114	W 101–100	✗missed	+3
Nov 16	at CHA	46%	110–111	L 114–115	✓correct	±0
Nov 13	vs DET	59%	110–107	W 127–120	✓correct	+4
Nov 12	vs TOR	73%	120–111	W 99–85	✓correct	+5
Nov 10	vs BOS	32%	108–116	L 107–113	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	at NYK	36%	110–115	L 94–116	✓correct	−17
Nov 7	vs UTA	73%	121–112	W 123–100	✓correct	+14
Nov 4	at CLE	29%	109–117	L 114–116	✓correct	+6
Nov 2	vs CLE	46%	111–113	L 113–114	✓correct	+1
Oct 31	at MEM	64%	117–111	L 99–122	✗missed	−29
Oct 28	at BOS	27%	110–119	L 108–119	✓correct	−2
Oct 27	at BKN	56%	112–109	L 102–115	✗missed	−16
Oct 25	vs CHI	64%	114–109	L 122–133	✗missed	−16
Oct 23	at PHI	33%	105–111	W 124–109	✗missed	+21

2023-24

12.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.6 to 13.8; 25th smallest of 30

+0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.6 to 2.9

15.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

66%

winner picked

88 games involving MIL

51 / 47.7

actual / expected wins

gap +3.3

0.217

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 88 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 2 PO	at IND	39%	104–107	L 98–120	✓correct	−19
Apr 30 PO	vs IND	45%	108–113	W 115–92	✗missed	+28
Apr 28 PO	at IND	28%	104–113	L 113–126	✓correct	−4
Apr 26 PO	at IND	32%	104–111	L 118–121	✓correct	+4
Apr 23 PO	vs IND	49%	107–110	L 108–125	✓correct	−14
Apr 21 PO	vs IND	45%	108–113	W 109–94	✗missed	+20
Apr 14	at ORL	39%	106–109	L 88–113	✓correct	−22
Apr 12	at OKC	28%	109–118	L 107–125	✓correct	−9
Apr 10	vs ORL	57%	109–108	W 117–99	✓correct	+17
Apr 9	vs BOS	53%	107–108	W 104–91	✗missed	+14
Apr 7	vs NYK	53%	110–111	L 109–122	✓correct	−12
Apr 5	vs TOR	73%	115–105	L 111–117	✗missed	−16
Apr 3	vs MEM	68%	117–110	L 101–111	✗missed	−17
Apr 2	at WAS	63%	118–109	L 113–117	✗missed	−13
Mar 30	at ATL	43%	111–112	W 122–113	✗missed	+10
Mar 28	at NOP	35%	107–112	L 100–107	✓correct	−2
Mar 26	vs LAL	65%	119–114	L 124–128	✗missed	−9
Mar 24	vs OKC	57%	116–115	W 118–93	✓correct	+24
Mar 21	vs BKN	63%	111–107	W 115–108	✓correct	+3
Mar 20	at BOS	30%	106–114	L 119–122	✓correct	+5
Mar 17	vs PHX	63%	111–107	W 140–129	✓correct	+7
Mar 14	vs PHI	61%	108–105	W 114–105	✓correct	+6
Mar 12	at SAC	49%	115–113	L 94–129	✗missed	−37
Mar 10	at LAC	47%	112–111	W 124–117	✓correct	+6
Mar 8	at LAL	47%	117–116	L 122–123	✗missed	−2
Mar 6	at GSW	41%	108–110	L 90–125	✓correct	−33
Mar 4	vs LAC	65%	113–108	W 113–106	✓correct	+2
Mar 1	at CHI	49%	113–111	W 113–97	✓correct	+14
Feb 29	at CHA	61%	116–108	W 111–99	✓correct	+4
Feb 27	vs CHA	73%	116–106	W 123–85	✓correct	+28
Feb 25	at PHI	47%	115–114	W 119–98	✓correct	+20
Feb 23	at MIN	27%	106–116	W 112–107	✗missed	+15
Feb 15	at MEM	65%	117–107	L 110–113	✗missed	−13
Feb 13	vs MIA	67%	115–109	L 97–123	✗missed	−32
Feb 12	vs DEN	63%	113–109	W 112–95	✓correct	+13
Feb 9	vs CHA	81%	124–109	W 120–84	✓correct	+21
Feb 8	vs MIN	59%	115–113	L 105–129	✗missed	−26
Feb 6	at PHX	41%	117–119	L 106–114	✓correct	−6
Feb 4	at UTA	43%	122–123	L 108–123	✓correct	−14
Feb 3	at DAL	57%	124–118	W 129–117	✓correct	+6
Jan 31	at POR	55%	118–113	L 116–119	✗missed	−8
Jan 29	at DEN	34%	111–117	L 107–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 27	vs NOP	61%	117–114	W 141–117	✓correct	+21
Jan 26	vs CLE	59%	116–114	L 100–112	✗missed	−14
Jan 24	vs CLE	59%	116–114	W 126–116	✓correct	+8
Jan 22	at DET	57%	124–118	W 122–113	✓correct	+3
Jan 20	at DET	59%	125–118	W 141–135	✓correct	−1
Jan 17	at CLE	37%	112–116	L 95–135	✓correct	−36
Jan 14	vs SAC	61%	118–115	W 143–142	✓correct	−2
Jan 13	vs GSW	70%	122–114	W 129–118	✓correct	+3
Jan 11	vs BOS	49%	117–120	W 135–102	✗missed	+36
Jan 8	vs UTA	61%	119–116	L 116–132	✗missed	−19
Jan 6	at HOU	51%	119–116	L 108–112	✗missed	−7
Jan 4	at SAS	69%	123–111	W 125–121	✓correct	−8
Jan 3	at IND	53%	122–118	L 130–142	✗missed	−16
Jan 1	vs IND	61%	120–117	L 113–122	✗missed	−12
Dec 29	at CLE	49%	115–113	W 119–111	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	at BKN	51%	119–116	W 144–122	✓correct	+19
Dec 25	at NYK	53%	122–118	L 122–129	✗missed	−11
Dec 23	at NYK	41%	117–119	W 130–111	✗missed	+21
Dec 21	vs ORL	67%	119–113	W 118–114	✓correct	−2
Dec 19	vs SAS	75%	122–111	W 132–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 17	vs HOU	63%	115–111	W 128–119	✓correct	+5
Dec 16	vs DET	78%	125–112	W 146–114	✓correct	+19
Dec 13	vs IND	57%	117–116	W 140–126	✓correct	+13
Dec 11	vs CHI	72%	121–112	W 133–129	✓correct	−5
Dec 7	vs IND	53%	116–117	L 119–128	✓correct	−8
Dec 5	vs NYK	59%	116–114	W 146–122	✓correct	+22
Dec 2	vs ATL	63%	120–116	W 132–121	✓correct	+7
Nov 30	at CHI	55%	115–110	L 113–120	✗missed	−12
Nov 28	at MIA	39%	111–114	W 131–124	✗missed	+10
Nov 26	vs POR	73%	119–109	W 108–102	✓correct	−4
Nov 24	vs WAS	67%	121–115	W 131–128	✓correct	−3
Nov 22	at BOS	41%	112–114	L 116–119	✓correct	−1
Nov 20	at WAS	57%	121–115	W 142–129	✓correct	+7
Nov 18	vs DAL	59%	117–115	W 132–125	✓correct	+5
Nov 17	at CHA	59%	121–114	W 130–99	✓correct	+24
Nov 15	at TOR	35%	111–116	W 128–112	✗missed	+21
Nov 13	vs CHI	63%	117–113	W 118–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 11	at ORL	43%	114–115	L 97–112	✓correct	−14
Nov 9	at IND	49%	118–116	L 124–126	✗missed	−4
Nov 8	vs DET	70%	118–110	W 120–118	✓correct	−6
Nov 6	at BKN	43%	114–115	W 129–125	✗missed	+5
Nov 3	vs NYK	57%	115–114	W 110–105	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	at TOR	39%	112–115	L 111–130	✓correct	−16
Oct 30	vs MIA	51%	110–112	W 122–114	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	vs ATL	59%	118–116	L 110–127	✗missed	−19
Oct 26	vs PHI	67%	115–109	W 118–117	✓correct	−5

2022-23

11.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.3 to 13.3; 29th smallest of 30

−0.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.8 to 2.4

14.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

64%

winner picked

87 games involving MIL

59 / 50.5

actual / expected wins

gap +8.5

0.224

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 87 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 26 PO	vs MIA	63%	117–112	L 126–128	✗missed	−7
Apr 24 PO	at MIA	40%	109–113	L 114–119	✓correct	−1
Apr 22 PO	at MIA	45%	111–113	L 99–121	✓correct	−20
Apr 19 PO	vs MIA	68%	117–110	W 138–122	✓correct	+9
Apr 16 PO	vs MIA	68%	117–110	L 117–130	✗missed	−20
Apr 9	at TOR	53%	120–119	L 105–121	✗missed	−17
Apr 7	vs MEM	53%	118–117	L 114–137	✗missed	−24
Apr 5	vs CHI	58%	117–114	W 105–92	✓correct	+10
Apr 4	at WAS	65%	123–117	W 140–128	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	vs PHI	58%	115–112	W 117–104	✓correct	+10
Mar 30	vs BOS	63%	121–116	L 99–140	✗missed	−46
Mar 29	at IND	74%	125–115	W 149–136	✓correct	+3
Mar 27	at DET	65%	120–114	W 126–117	✓correct	+3
Mar 25	at DEN	42%	113–116	L 106–129	✓correct	−20
Mar 24	at UTA	60%	119–115	W 144–116	✓correct	+24
Mar 22	vs SAS	88%	124–105	W 130–94	✓correct	+17
Mar 19	vs TOR	60%	119–115	W 118–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 16	vs IND	83%	126–111	L 123–139	✗missed	−31
Mar 14	at PHX	40%	112–116	W 116–104	✗missed	+16
Mar 13	at SAC	53%	119–118	W 133–124	✓correct	+8
Mar 11	at GSW	45%	112–114	L 116–125	✓correct	−7
Mar 9	vs BKN	74%	121–111	W 118–113	✓correct	−5
Mar 7	at ORL	47%	113–114	W 134–123	✗missed	+12
Mar 5	at WAS	45%	113–115	W 117–111	✗missed	+8
Mar 4	vs PHI	63%	115–110	L 130–133	✗missed	−8
Mar 1	vs ORL	47%	111–112	W 139–117	✗missed	+23
Feb 28	at BKN	65%	120–114	W 118–104	✓correct	+8
Feb 26	vs PHX	63%	117–112	W 104–101	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	vs MIA	63%	116–111	W 128–99	✓correct	+24
Feb 16	at CHI	65%	118–112	W 112–100	✓correct	+6
Feb 14	vs BOS	72%	120–111	W 131–125	✓correct	−3
Feb 10	at LAC	37%	114–119	W 119–106	✗missed	+18
Feb 9	at LAL	55%	118–116	W 115–106	✓correct	+7
Feb 6	at POR	53%	120–119	W 127–108	✓correct	+18
Feb 4	vs MIA	58%	114–111	W 123–115	✓correct	+5
Feb 2	vs LAC	63%	118–113	W 106–105	✓correct	−4
Jan 31	vs CHA	80%	124–111	W 124–115	✓correct	−4
Jan 29	vs NOP	72%	119–110	W 135–110	✓correct	+16
Jan 27	at IND	68%	122–115	W 141–131	✓correct	+3
Jan 25	vs DEN	42%	111–114	W 107–99	✗missed	+11
Jan 23	at DET	65%	121–115	W 150–130	✓correct	+14
Jan 21	at CLE	47%	109–110	L 102–114	✓correct	−11
Jan 17	vs TOR	45%	109–111	W 130–122	✗missed	+10
Jan 16	vs IND	63%	116–111	W 132–119	✓correct	+8
Jan 14	at MIA	55%	111–109	L 95–111	✗missed	−18
Jan 12	at MIA	53%	113–112	L 102–108	✗missed	−7
Jan 11	at ATL	53%	115–114	W 114–105	✓correct	+8
Jan 9	at NYK	32%	108–115	W 111–107	✗missed	+11
Jan 6	vs CHA	74%	117–107	L 109–138	✗missed	−39
Jan 4	at TOR	47%	115–116	W 104–101	✗missed	+4
Jan 3	vs WAS	53%	114–113	W 123–113	✓correct	+9
Jan 1	vs WAS	60%	115–111	L 95–118	✗missed	−27
Dec 30	vs MIN	55%	115–113	W 123–114	✓correct	+7
Dec 28	at CHI	47%	117–118	L 113–119	✓correct	−5
Dec 25	at BOS	40%	110–114	L 118–139	✓correct	−17
Dec 23	at BKN	40%	114–118	L 100–118	✓correct	−14
Dec 21	at CLE	53%	109–108	L 106–114	✗missed	−9
Dec 19	at NOP	40%	112–116	W 128–119	✗missed	+13
Dec 17	vs UTA	63%	115–110	W 123–97	✓correct	+21
Dec 15	at MEM	40%	110–114	L 101–142	✓correct	−37
Dec 13	vs GSW	65%	116–110	W 128–111	✓correct	+11
Dec 11	at HOU	70%	119–111	L 92–97	✗missed	−13
Dec 9	at DAL	47%	112–113	W 106–105	✗missed	+2
Dec 7	vs SAC	65%	117–111	W 126–113	✓correct	+7
Dec 5	at ORL	70%	116–108	W 109–102	✓correct	−1
Dec 3	at CHA	63%	114–109	W 105–96	✓correct	+4
Dec 2	vs LAL	60%	116–112	L 129–133	✗missed	−8
Nov 30	at NYK	53%	115–114	W 109–103	✓correct	+5
Nov 27	vs DAL	53%	109–108	W 124–115	✓correct	+8
Nov 25	vs CLE	47%	107–108	W 117–102	✗missed	+16
Nov 23	vs CHI	58%	112–109	L 113–118	✗missed	−8
Nov 21	vs POR	63%	111–106	W 119–111	✓correct	+3
Nov 18	at PHI	53%	109–108	L 102–110	✗missed	−9
Nov 16	vs CLE	58%	108–105	W 113–98	✓correct	+12
Nov 14	vs ATL	65%	112–106	L 106–121	✗missed	−21
Nov 11	at SAS	68%	114–107	L 93–111	✗missed	−25
Nov 9	at OKC	58%	110–107	W 136–132	✓correct	+1
Nov 7	at ATL	53%	108–107	L 98–117	✗missed	−20
Nov 5	vs OKC	68%	113–106	W 108–94	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	at MIN	58%	112–109	W 115–102	✓correct	+10
Nov 2	vs DET	76%	115–104	W 116–91	✓correct	+14
Oct 31	vs DET	80%	117–104	W 110–108	✓correct	−11
Oct 29	vs ATL	53%	108–107	W 123–115	✓correct	+7
Oct 28	vs NYK	53%	107–106	W 119–108	✓correct	+10
Oct 26	vs BKN	60%	110–106	W 110–99	✓correct	+7
Oct 22	vs HOU	80%	115–102	W 125–105	✓correct	+7
Oct 20	at PHI	53%	104–103	W 90–88	✓correct	+1

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.9 to 12.5; 29th smallest of 30

−1.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.3 to 0.1

14.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

65%

winner picked

353 games involving MIL

191 / 183.8

actual / expected wins

gap +7.2

0.216

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 353 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs BOS	25%	111–120	L 97–117	✓correct	−11
Nov 6	vs TOR	30%	115–122	L 107–121	✓correct	−7
Nov 4	at BOS	28%	110–118	L 102–109	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	at MIN	20%	110–122	L 100–112	✓correct	±0
Oct 31	vs CLE	36%	116–121	L 111–136	✓correct	−20
Oct 28	vs HOU	36%	110–115	L 100–132	✓correct	−27
Oct 26	vs IND	56%	120–118	W 110–102	✓correct	+6
Oct 24	at PHI	24%	109–119	L 116–127	✓correct	−1
Oct 23	vs CHI	53%	122–121	L 125–132	✗missed	−8
Oct 21	at WAS	41%	121–124	L 116–128	✓correct	−9
Apr 12	at PHI	19%	108–121	L 106–126	✓correct	−7
Apr 10	vs BKN	67%	116–110	W 125–108	✓correct	+11
Apr 8	at DET	17%	104–118	L 111–137	✓correct	−12
Apr 7	at BKN	53%	112–111	L 90–96	✗missed	−7
Apr 5	vs MEM	59%	116–113	W 131–115	✓correct	+13
Apr 3	vs BOS	17%	105–119	L 101–133	✓correct	−18
Apr 1	at HOU	14%	103–119	L 113–119	✓correct	+10
Mar 31	vs DAL	47%	116–117	W 123–99	✗missed	+25
Mar 29	vs LAC	19%	107–120	L 113–127	✓correct	−1
Mar 28	vs SAS	19%	107–120	L 95–127	✓correct	−19
Mar 25	at POR	17%	107–121	L 99–130	✓correct	−17
Mar 23	at LAC	24%	111–121	L 96–129	✓correct	−23
Mar 21	at PHX	26%	107–116	W 108–105	✗missed	+12
Mar 19	at UTA	56%	112–110	L 96–128	✗missed	−34
Mar 17	vs CLE	34%	109–115	L 116–123	✓correct	−1
Mar 15	vs IND	64%	117–112	W 134–123	✓correct	+6
Mar 14	at ATL	17%	109–123	L 99–122	✓correct	−9
Mar 12	at MIA	17%	111–125	L 105–112	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	vs PHX	39%	108–112	L 114–129	✓correct	−11
Mar 8	vs ORL	31%	106–113	L 91–130	✓correct	−32
Mar 7	vs UTA	71%	120–112	W 113–99	✓correct	+6
Mar 4	vs ATL	36%	113–118	L 113–131	✓correct	−13
Mar 2	vs BOS	34%	105–111	L 81–108	✓correct	−21
Mar 1	at CHI	69%	115–108	L 97–120	✗missed	−30
Feb 27	vs NYK	39%	109–113	L 98–127	✓correct	−25
Feb 25	vs CLE	39%	110–114	W 118–116	✗missed	+6
Feb 24	vs MIA	39%	115–119	W 128–117	✗missed	+15
Feb 22	vs TOR	47%	113–114	L 94–122	✓correct	−27
Feb 20	at NOP	56%	111–109	W 139–118	✓correct	+19
Feb 12	at OKC	20%	104–116	W 110–93	✗missed	+29
Feb 11	at ORL	34%	111–117	W 116–108	✗missed	+14
Feb 9	at ORL	41%	113–116	L 99–118	✓correct	−16
Feb 6	vs IND	56%	116–114	W 105–99	✓correct	+4
Feb 4	vs NOP	42%	109–112	W 141–137	✗missed	+7
Feb 3	vs CHI	44%	111–113	W 131–115	✗missed	+18
Feb 1	at BOS	19%	103–116	L 79–107	✓correct	−15
Jan 29	at WAS	53%	113–112	L 99–109	✗missed	−11
Jan 27	at PHI	39%	110–114	L 122–139	✓correct	−13
Jan 23	vs DEN	42%	109–112	L 100–102	✓correct	+1
Jan 21	vs OKC	42%	113–116	L 102–122	✓correct	−17
Jan 19	at ATL	39%	113–117	W 112–110	✗missed	+6
Jan 15	at SAS	34%	111–117	L 101–119	✓correct	−12
Jan 13	vs MIN	53%	116–115	L 106–139	✗missed	−34
Jan 11	at DEN	41%	112–115	L 104–108	✓correct	−1
Jan 9	at LAL	47%	113–114	W 105–101	✗missed	+5
Jan 7	at GSW	36%	111–116	L 113–120	✓correct	−2
Jan 4	at SAC	53%	114–113	W 115–98	✓correct	+16
Jan 2	vs CHA	56%	115–113	W 122–121	✓correct	−1
Dec 31	vs WAS	74%	119–110	L 113–114	✗missed	−10
Dec 29	at CHA	44%	112–114	W 123–113	✗missed	+12
Dec 27	at CHI	34%	114–120	W 112–103	✗missed	+15
Dec 26	at MEM	31%	111–118	L 104–125	✓correct	−14
Dec 23	at IND	47%	113–114	W 111–94	✗missed	+18
Dec 21	at MIN	26%	110–119	L 100–103	✓correct	+6
Dec 18	vs TOR	44%	110–112	L 105–111	✓correct	−4
Dec 14	at BKN	56%	112–110	L 82–127	✗missed	−47
Dec 11	vs BOS	31%	109–116	W 116–101	✗missed	+22
Dec 6	at DET	22%	112–123	L 112–124	✓correct	−1
Dec 5	vs PHI	61%	114–110	L 101–116	✗missed	−19
Dec 3	vs DET	36%	114–119	W 113–109	✗missed	+9
Dec 1	at WAS	76%	120–110	L 126–129	✗missed	−13
Nov 29	vs BKN	76%	116–106	W 116–99	✓correct	+7
Nov 28	at NYK	31%	114–121	L 109–118	✓correct	−2
Nov 26	at MIA	26%	115–124	L 103–106	✓correct	+6
Nov 24	vs POR	53%	117–116	L 103–115	✗missed	−13
Nov 22	vs DET	34%	114–120	L 116–129	✓correct	−7
Nov 20	vs PHI	67%	118–112	L 114–123	✗missed	−15
Nov 17	at CLE	41%	118–121	L 106–118	✓correct	−9
Nov 15	vs LAL	53%	119–118	L 95–119	✗missed	−25
Nov 14	vs CHA	76%	123–113	W 147–134	✓correct	+3
Nov 12	at CHA	78%	123–112	L 100–111	✗missed	−22
Nov 10	at DAL	53%	119–118	W 116–114	✓correct	+1
Nov 9	vs HOU	47%	117–118	L 115–122	✓correct	−6
Nov 7	vs CHI	47%	117–118	W 126–110	✗missed	+17
Nov 4	at TOR	53%	119–118	L 100–128	✗missed	−29
Nov 3	at IND	56%	114–112	W 117–115	✓correct	±0
Nov 1	vs SAC	64%	118–113	L 133–135	✗missed	−7
Oct 30	vs GSW	59%	116–113	W 120–110	✓correct	+7
Oct 28	vs NYK	47%	115–116	W 121–111	✗missed	+11
Oct 26	at CLE	24%	113–123	L 113–118	✓correct	+5
Oct 24	at TOR	47%	117–118	W 122–116	✗missed	+7
Oct 22	vs WAS	78%	118–107	W 133–120	✓correct	+2
Apr 29 PO	at IND	36%	108–113	L 118–119	✓correct	+4
Apr 27 PO	vs IND	64%	113–108	L 103–129	✗missed	−31
Apr 25 PO	vs IND	59%	113–110	W 117–101	✓correct	+13
Apr 22 PO	at IND	29%	109–117	L 115–123	✓correct	±0
Apr 19 PO	at IND	29%	111–119	L 98–117	✓correct	−11
Apr 13	vs DET	46%	115–117	W 140–133	✗missed	+9
Apr 11	at DET	54%	117–115	W 125–119	✓correct	+4
Apr 10	vs NOP	88%	122–104	W 136–111	✓correct	+7
Apr 8	vs MIN	39%	109–114	W 110–103	✗missed	+12
Apr 6	at NOP	79%	120–107	W 111–107	✓correct	−9
Apr 5	at MIA	46%	111–112	W 121–115	✗missed	+7
Apr 3	at PHI	73%	120–110	W 126–113	✓correct	+3
Apr 1	vs PHX	64%	114–109	W 133–123	✓correct	+5
Mar 30	vs ATL	64%	118–113	L 124–145	✗missed	−26
Mar 28	vs NYK	57%	109–107	L 107–116	✗missed	−11
Mar 26	at DEN	38%	113–117	L 117–127	✓correct	−6
Mar 24	at PHX	46%	113–114	L 106–108	✓correct	−1
Mar 22	at SAC	54%	116–114	W 114–108	✓correct	+4
Mar 20	at LAL	56%	116–113	W 118–89	✓correct	+26
Mar 18	at GSW	43%	115–117	L 93–104	✓correct	−9
Mar 16	vs OKC	54%	121–120	L 105–121	✗missed	−17
Mar 15	vs IND	67%	119–113	W 126–119	✓correct	+1
Mar 13	vs LAL	64%	115–110	W 126–106	✓correct	+15
Mar 11	at IND	38%	115–119	L 114–115	✓correct	+3
Mar 9	vs CLE	46%	116–118	L 100–112	✓correct	−10
Mar 8	vs ORL	69%	117–110	L 109–111	✗missed	−9
Mar 5	vs DAL	69%	118–111	W 137–107	✓correct	+23
Mar 4	at ATL	54%	120–118	W 127–121	✓correct	+4
Mar 1	at DAL	38%	112–116	W 132–117	✗missed	+19
Feb 27	vs DEN	49%	113–114	W 121–112	✗missed	+10
Feb 25	at HOU	41%	112–115	L 97–100	✓correct	±0
Feb 23	vs MIA	59%	114–111	W 120–113	✓correct	+4
Feb 21	at WAS	51%	120–119	W 104–101	✓correct	+2
Feb 20	vs LAC	49%	116–117	W 116–110	✗missed	+7
Feb 12	at MIN	36%	114–119	W 103–101	✗missed	+7
Feb 10	vs GSW	46%	118–120	L 111–125	✓correct	−12
Feb 9	vs PHI	57%	116–114	W 135–127	✓correct	+6
Feb 7	at ATL	56%	120–117	L 110–115	✗missed	−8
Feb 5	at CHA	64%	118–112	W 112–102	✓correct	+4
Feb 3	at OKC	23%	115–126	L 96–125	✓correct	−18
Feb 2	vs MEM	57%	124–122	L 119–132	✗missed	−15
Jan 31	at SAS	64%	122–116	L 118–144	✗missed	−32
Jan 28	at POR	56%	114–111	L 112–125	✗missed	−16
Jan 27	at UTA	66%	117–110	W 125–110	✓correct	+8
Jan 25	at LAC	38%	110–114	L 117–127	✓correct	−6
Jan 23	vs MIA	62%	115–111	W 125–96	✓correct	+25
Jan 19	vs PHI	77%	119–108	W 123–109	✓correct	+3
Jan 17	vs TOR	81%	121–108	W 130–112	✓correct	+5
Jan 15	vs ORL	69%	109–102	W 122–93	✓correct	+22
Jan 14	vs SAC	54%	115–114	W 130–115	✓correct	+14
Jan 12	at NYK	27%	109–118	L 106–140	✓correct	−25
Jan 10	at ORL	54%	109–107	W 109–106	✓correct	+1
Jan 8	vs SAS	69%	118–111	W 121–105	✓correct	+9
Jan 6	at TOR	61%	117–112	W 128–104	✓correct	+19
Jan 4	vs POR	81%	121–108	L 102–105	✗missed	−16
Jan 2	vs BKN	73%	116–107	L 110–113	✗missed	−12
Dec 31	at IND	33%	112–118	W 120–112	✗missed	+14
Dec 28	at CHI	51%	114–113	L 111–116	✗missed	−6
Dec 26	vs BKN	73%	116–107	L 105–111	✗missed	−15
Dec 23	at CHI	36%	114–119	W 112–91	✗missed	+26
Dec 21	vs WAS	79%	121–109	W 112–101	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	at CLE	16%	107–122	L 101–124	✓correct	−8
Dec 10	vs ORL	64%	113–108	W 114–109	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	at BKN	59%	114–110	W 118–113	✓correct	+1
Dec 6	at BOS	29%	109–117	L 105–111	✓correct	+2
Dec 4	vs ATL	64%	120–115	L 104–119	✗missed	−20
Dec 3	at DET	59%	114–110	W 128–107	✓correct	+17
Nov 30	vs WAS	81%	121–108	W 124–114	✓correct	−3
Nov 26	at MIA	41%	110–113	W 106–103	✗missed	+6
Nov 23	vs CHA	77%	114–103	W 125–119	✓correct	−5
Nov 22	vs IND	62%	115–111	W 129–117	✓correct	+8
Nov 20	vs CHI	67%	120–114	W 122–106	✓correct	+10
Nov 18	vs HOU	46%	112–114	W 101–100	✗missed	+3
Nov 16	at CHA	46%	110–111	L 114–115	✓correct	±0
Nov 13	vs DET	59%	110–107	W 127–120	✓correct	+4
Nov 12	vs TOR	73%	120–111	W 99–85	✓correct	+5
Nov 10	vs BOS	32%	108–116	L 107–113	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	at NYK	36%	110–115	L 94–116	✓correct	−17
Nov 7	vs UTA	73%	121–112	W 123–100	✓correct	+14
Nov 4	at CLE	29%	109–117	L 114–116	✓correct	+6
Nov 2	vs CLE	46%	111–113	L 113–114	✓correct	+1
Oct 31	at MEM	64%	117–111	L 99–122	✗missed	−29
Oct 28	at BOS	27%	110–119	L 108–119	✓correct	−2
Oct 27	at BKN	56%	112–109	L 102–115	✗missed	−16
Oct 25	vs CHI	64%	114–109	L 122–133	✗missed	−16
Oct 23	at PHI	33%	105–111	W 124–109	✗missed	+21
May 2 PO	at IND	39%	104–107	L 98–120	✓correct	−19
Apr 30 PO	vs IND	45%	108–113	W 115–92	✗missed	+28
Apr 28 PO	at IND	28%	104–113	L 113–126	✓correct	−4
Apr 26 PO	at IND	32%	104–111	L 118–121	✓correct	+4
Apr 23 PO	vs IND	49%	107–110	L 108–125	✓correct	−14
Apr 21 PO	vs IND	45%	108–113	W 109–94	✗missed	+20
Apr 14	at ORL	39%	106–109	L 88–113	✓correct	−22
Apr 12	at OKC	28%	109–118	L 107–125	✓correct	−9
Apr 10	vs ORL	57%	109–108	W 117–99	✓correct	+17
Apr 9	vs BOS	53%	107–108	W 104–91	✗missed	+14
Apr 7	vs NYK	53%	110–111	L 109–122	✓correct	−12
Apr 5	vs TOR	73%	115–105	L 111–117	✗missed	−16
Apr 3	vs MEM	68%	117–110	L 101–111	✗missed	−17
Apr 2	at WAS	63%	118–109	L 113–117	✗missed	−13
Mar 30	at ATL	43%	111–112	W 122–113	✗missed	+10
Mar 28	at NOP	35%	107–112	L 100–107	✓correct	−2
Mar 26	vs LAL	65%	119–114	L 124–128	✗missed	−9
Mar 24	vs OKC	57%	116–115	W 118–93	✓correct	+24
Mar 21	vs BKN	63%	111–107	W 115–108	✓correct	+3
Mar 20	at BOS	30%	106–114	L 119–122	✓correct	+5
Mar 17	vs PHX	63%	111–107	W 140–129	✓correct	+7
Mar 14	vs PHI	61%	108–105	W 114–105	✓correct	+6
Mar 12	at SAC	49%	115–113	L 94–129	✗missed	−37
Mar 10	at LAC	47%	112–111	W 124–117	✓correct	+6
Mar 8	at LAL	47%	117–116	L 122–123	✗missed	−2
Mar 6	at GSW	41%	108–110	L 90–125	✓correct	−33
Mar 4	vs LAC	65%	113–108	W 113–106	✓correct	+2
Mar 1	at CHI	49%	113–111	W 113–97	✓correct	+14
Feb 29	at CHA	61%	116–108	W 111–99	✓correct	+4
Feb 27	vs CHA	73%	116–106	W 123–85	✓correct	+28
Feb 25	at PHI	47%	115–114	W 119–98	✓correct	+20
Feb 23	at MIN	27%	106–116	W 112–107	✗missed	+15
Feb 15	at MEM	65%	117–107	L 110–113	✗missed	−13
Feb 13	vs MIA	67%	115–109	L 97–123	✗missed	−32
Feb 12	vs DEN	63%	113–109	W 112–95	✓correct	+13
Feb 9	vs CHA	81%	124–109	W 120–84	✓correct	+21
Feb 8	vs MIN	59%	115–113	L 105–129	✗missed	−26
Feb 6	at PHX	41%	117–119	L 106–114	✓correct	−6
Feb 4	at UTA	43%	122–123	L 108–123	✓correct	−14
Feb 3	at DAL	57%	124–118	W 129–117	✓correct	+6
Jan 31	at POR	55%	118–113	L 116–119	✗missed	−8
Jan 29	at DEN	34%	111–117	L 107–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 27	vs NOP	61%	117–114	W 141–117	✓correct	+21
Jan 26	vs CLE	59%	116–114	L 100–112	✗missed	−14
Jan 24	vs CLE	59%	116–114	W 126–116	✓correct	+8
Jan 22	at DET	57%	124–118	W 122–113	✓correct	+3
Jan 20	at DET	59%	125–118	W 141–135	✓correct	−1
Jan 17	at CLE	37%	112–116	L 95–135	✓correct	−36
Jan 14	vs SAC	61%	118–115	W 143–142	✓correct	−2
Jan 13	vs GSW	70%	122–114	W 129–118	✓correct	+3
Jan 11	vs BOS	49%	117–120	W 135–102	✗missed	+36
Jan 8	vs UTA	61%	119–116	L 116–132	✗missed	−19
Jan 6	at HOU	51%	119–116	L 108–112	✗missed	−7
Jan 4	at SAS	69%	123–111	W 125–121	✓correct	−8
Jan 3	at IND	53%	122–118	L 130–142	✗missed	−16
Jan 1	vs IND	61%	120–117	L 113–122	✗missed	−12
Dec 29	at CLE	49%	115–113	W 119–111	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	at BKN	51%	119–116	W 144–122	✓correct	+19
Dec 25	at NYK	53%	122–118	L 122–129	✗missed	−11
Dec 23	at NYK	41%	117–119	W 130–111	✗missed	+21
Dec 21	vs ORL	67%	119–113	W 118–114	✓correct	−2
Dec 19	vs SAS	75%	122–111	W 132–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 17	vs HOU	63%	115–111	W 128–119	✓correct	+5
Dec 16	vs DET	78%	125–112	W 146–114	✓correct	+19
Dec 13	vs IND	57%	117–116	W 140–126	✓correct	+13
Dec 11	vs CHI	72%	121–112	W 133–129	✓correct	−5
Dec 7	vs IND	53%	116–117	L 119–128	✓correct	−8
Dec 5	vs NYK	59%	116–114	W 146–122	✓correct	+22
Dec 2	vs ATL	63%	120–116	W 132–121	✓correct	+7
Nov 30	at CHI	55%	115–110	L 113–120	✗missed	−12
Nov 28	at MIA	39%	111–114	W 131–124	✗missed	+10
Nov 26	vs POR	73%	119–109	W 108–102	✓correct	−4
Nov 24	vs WAS	67%	121–115	W 131–128	✓correct	−3
Nov 22	at BOS	41%	112–114	L 116–119	✓correct	−1
Nov 20	at WAS	57%	121–115	W 142–129	✓correct	+7
Nov 18	vs DAL	59%	117–115	W 132–125	✓correct	+5
Nov 17	at CHA	59%	121–114	W 130–99	✓correct	+24
Nov 15	at TOR	35%	111–116	W 128–112	✗missed	+21
Nov 13	vs CHI	63%	117–113	W 118–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 11	at ORL	43%	114–115	L 97–112	✓correct	−14
Nov 9	at IND	49%	118–116	L 124–126	✗missed	−4
Nov 8	vs DET	70%	118–110	W 120–118	✓correct	−6
Nov 6	at BKN	43%	114–115	W 129–125	✗missed	+5
Nov 3	vs NYK	57%	115–114	W 110–105	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	at TOR	39%	112–115	L 111–130	✓correct	−16
Oct 30	vs MIA	51%	110–112	W 122–114	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	vs ATL	59%	118–116	L 110–127	✗missed	−19
Oct 26	vs PHI	67%	115–109	W 118–117	✓correct	−5
Apr 26 PO	vs MIA	63%	117–112	L 126–128	✗missed	−7
Apr 24 PO	at MIA	40%	109–113	L 114–119	✓correct	−1
Apr 22 PO	at MIA	45%	111–113	L 99–121	✓correct	−20
Apr 19 PO	vs MIA	68%	117–110	W 138–122	✓correct	+9
Apr 16 PO	vs MIA	68%	117–110	L 117–130	✗missed	−20
Apr 9	at TOR	53%	120–119	L 105–121	✗missed	−17
Apr 7	vs MEM	53%	118–117	L 114–137	✗missed	−24
Apr 5	vs CHI	58%	117–114	W 105–92	✓correct	+10
Apr 4	at WAS	65%	123–117	W 140–128	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	vs PHI	58%	115–112	W 117–104	✓correct	+10
Mar 30	vs BOS	63%	121–116	L 99–140	✗missed	−46
Mar 29	at IND	74%	125–115	W 149–136	✓correct	+3
Mar 27	at DET	65%	120–114	W 126–117	✓correct	+3
Mar 25	at DEN	42%	113–116	L 106–129	✓correct	−20
Mar 24	at UTA	60%	119–115	W 144–116	✓correct	+24
Mar 22	vs SAS	88%	124–105	W 130–94	✓correct	+17
Mar 19	vs TOR	60%	119–115	W 118–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 16	vs IND	83%	126–111	L 123–139	✗missed	−31
Mar 14	at PHX	40%	112–116	W 116–104	✗missed	+16
Mar 13	at SAC	53%	119–118	W 133–124	✓correct	+8
Mar 11	at GSW	45%	112–114	L 116–125	✓correct	−7
Mar 9	vs BKN	74%	121–111	W 118–113	✓correct	−5
Mar 7	at ORL	47%	113–114	W 134–123	✗missed	+12
Mar 5	at WAS	45%	113–115	W 117–111	✗missed	+8
Mar 4	vs PHI	63%	115–110	L 130–133	✗missed	−8
Mar 1	vs ORL	47%	111–112	W 139–117	✗missed	+23
Feb 28	at BKN	65%	120–114	W 118–104	✓correct	+8
Feb 26	vs PHX	63%	117–112	W 104–101	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	vs MIA	63%	116–111	W 128–99	✓correct	+24
Feb 16	at CHI	65%	118–112	W 112–100	✓correct	+6
Feb 14	vs BOS	72%	120–111	W 131–125	✓correct	−3
Feb 10	at LAC	37%	114–119	W 119–106	✗missed	+18
Feb 9	at LAL	55%	118–116	W 115–106	✓correct	+7
Feb 6	at POR	53%	120–119	W 127–108	✓correct	+18
Feb 4	vs MIA	58%	114–111	W 123–115	✓correct	+5
Feb 2	vs LAC	63%	118–113	W 106–105	✓correct	−4
Jan 31	vs CHA	80%	124–111	W 124–115	✓correct	−4
Jan 29	vs NOP	72%	119–110	W 135–110	✓correct	+16
Jan 27	at IND	68%	122–115	W 141–131	✓correct	+3
Jan 25	vs DEN	42%	111–114	W 107–99	✗missed	+11
Jan 23	at DET	65%	121–115	W 150–130	✓correct	+14
Jan 21	at CLE	47%	109–110	L 102–114	✓correct	−11
Jan 17	vs TOR	45%	109–111	W 130–122	✗missed	+10
Jan 16	vs IND	63%	116–111	W 132–119	✓correct	+8
Jan 14	at MIA	55%	111–109	L 95–111	✗missed	−18
Jan 12	at MIA	53%	113–112	L 102–108	✗missed	−7
Jan 11	at ATL	53%	115–114	W 114–105	✓correct	+8
Jan 9	at NYK	32%	108–115	W 111–107	✗missed	+11
Jan 6	vs CHA	74%	117–107	L 109–138	✗missed	−39
Jan 4	at TOR	47%	115–116	W 104–101	✗missed	+4
Jan 3	vs WAS	53%	114–113	W 123–113	✓correct	+9
Jan 1	vs WAS	60%	115–111	L 95–118	✗missed	−27
Dec 30	vs MIN	55%	115–113	W 123–114	✓correct	+7
Dec 28	at CHI	47%	117–118	L 113–119	✓correct	−5
Dec 25	at BOS	40%	110–114	L 118–139	✓correct	−17
Dec 23	at BKN	40%	114–118	L 100–118	✓correct	−14
Dec 21	at CLE	53%	109–108	L 106–114	✗missed	−9
Dec 19	at NOP	40%	112–116	W 128–119	✗missed	+13
Dec 17	vs UTA	63%	115–110	W 123–97	✓correct	+21
Dec 15	at MEM	40%	110–114	L 101–142	✓correct	−37
Dec 13	vs GSW	65%	116–110	W 128–111	✓correct	+11
Dec 11	at HOU	70%	119–111	L 92–97	✗missed	−13
Dec 9	at DAL	47%	112–113	W 106–105	✗missed	+2
Dec 7	vs SAC	65%	117–111	W 126–113	✓correct	+7
Dec 5	at ORL	70%	116–108	W 109–102	✓correct	−1
Dec 3	at CHA	63%	114–109	W 105–96	✓correct	+4
Dec 2	vs LAL	60%	116–112	L 129–133	✗missed	−8
Nov 30	at NYK	53%	115–114	W 109–103	✓correct	+5
Nov 27	vs DAL	53%	109–108	W 124–115	✓correct	+8
Nov 25	vs CLE	47%	107–108	W 117–102	✗missed	+16
Nov 23	vs CHI	58%	112–109	L 113–118	✗missed	−8
Nov 21	vs POR	63%	111–106	W 119–111	✓correct	+3
Nov 18	at PHI	53%	109–108	L 102–110	✗missed	−9
Nov 16	vs CLE	58%	108–105	W 113–98	✓correct	+12
Nov 14	vs ATL	65%	112–106	L 106–121	✗missed	−21
Nov 11	at SAS	68%	114–107	L 93–111	✗missed	−25
Nov 9	at OKC	58%	110–107	W 136–132	✓correct	+1
Nov 7	at ATL	53%	108–107	L 98–117	✗missed	−20
Nov 5	vs OKC	68%	113–106	W 108–94	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	at MIN	58%	112–109	W 115–102	✓correct	+10
Nov 2	vs DET	76%	115–104	W 116–91	✓correct	+14
Oct 31	vs DET	80%	117–104	W 110–108	✓correct	−11
Oct 29	vs ATL	53%	108–107	W 123–115	✓correct	+7
Oct 28	vs NYK	53%	107–106	W 119–108	✓correct	+10
Oct 26	vs BKN	60%	110–106	W 110–99	✓correct	+7
Oct 22	vs HOU	80%	115–102	W 125–105	✓correct	+7
Oct 20	at PHI	53%	104–103	W 90–88	✓correct	+1

Surprise games

All MIL surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected MIL wins

20%MIL beat OKC110–93Feb 12, 2025-26 · forecast OKC116–104 · missed margin by 29
26%MIL beat PHX108–105Mar 21, 2025-26 · forecast PHX116–107 · missed margin by 12
27%MIL beat MIN112–107Feb 23, 2023-24 · forecast MIN116–106 · missed margin by 15
31%MIL beat BOS116–101Dec 11, 2025-26 · forecast BOS116–109 · missed margin by 22
32%MIL beat NYK111–107Jan 9, 2022-23 · forecast NYK115–108 · missed margin by 11

Most unexpected MIL losses

17%IND beat MIL139–123Mar 16, 2022-23 · forecast MIL126–111 · missed margin by 31
19%POR beat MIL105–102Jan 4, 2024-25 · forecast MIL121–108 · missed margin by 16
22%CHA beat MIL111–100Nov 12, 2025-26 · forecast MIL123–112 · missed margin by 22
24%WAS beat MIL129–126Dec 1, 2025-26 · forecast MIL120–110 · missed margin by 13
26%CHA beat MIL138–109Jan 6, 2022-23 · forecast MIL117–107 · missed margin by 39

Largest margin misses

44%BKN beat MIL127–82Dec 14, 2025-26 · forecast MIL112–110 · missed margin by 47
37%BOS beat MIL140–99Mar 30, 2022-23 · forecast MIL121–116 · missed margin by 46
26%CHA beat MIL138–109Jan 6, 2022-23 · forecast MIL117–107 · missed margin by 39
51%SAC beat MIL129–94Mar 12, 2023-24 · forecast MIL115–113 · missed margin by 37
60%MEM beat MIL142–101Dec 15, 2022-23 · forecast MEM114–110 · missed margin by 37

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected MIL wins

Most unexpected MIL losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions