The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
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Teams

Team Predictability

Which teams' games this model forecasts well, and which it misses. This is not a ranking of good and bad teams: a weak team can be easy to forecast, and a strong one hard. Misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary variation, not only from the team.

2022-23 to 2026-27 · 5,390 graded games · league average margin miss 11.0 pts

Average margin miss with intervals

Average margin miss by team, 2022-23 to 2026-27, smallest to largest 891011121314 median 11.0 DET: 9.80 points over 356 games, 90% interval 9.17–10.47 DET 9.8 n=356 HOU: 10.09 points over 350 games, 90% interval 9.46–10.73 HOU 10.1 n=350 PHX: 10.25 points over 355 games, 90% interval 9.56–10.97 PHX 10.3 n=355 ORL: 10.50 points over 353 games, 90% interval 9.8–11.22 ORL 10.5 n=353 UTA: 10.63 points over 338 games, 90% interval 9.81–11.47 UTA 10.6 n=338 PHI: 10.64 points over 367 games, 90% interval 9.93–11.41 PHI 10.6 n=367 IND: 10.67 points over 376 games, 90% interval 9.99–11.4 IND 10.7 n=376 LAL: 10.71 points over 375 games, 90% interval 10.03–11.43 LAL 10.7 n=375 CLE: 10.74 points over 382 games, 90% interval 10.07–11.47 CLE 10.7 n=382 WAS: 10.74 points over 337 games, 90% interval 10.06–11.49 WAS 10.7 n=337 LAC: 10.76 points over 355 games, 90% interval 10.03–11.52 LAC 10.8 n=355 DEN: 10.83 points over 388 games, 90% interval 10.1–11.61 DEN 10.8 n=388 SAS: 10.88 points over 357 games, 90% interval 10.14–11.63 SAS 10.9 n=357 MIA: 10.95 points over 369 games, 90% interval 10.19–11.7 MIA 10.9 n=369 NOP: 10.98 points over 342 games, 90% interval 10.27–11.74 NOP 11.0 n=342 TOR: 11.08 points over 344 games, 90% interval 10.29–11.88 TOR 11.1 n=344 GSW: 11.12 points over 363 games, 90% interval 10.4–11.91 GSW 11.1 n=363 DAL: 11.15 points over 359 games, 90% interval 10.45–11.87 DAL 11.2 n=359 CHA: 11.18 points over 338 games, 90% interval 10.34–12.05 CHA 11.2 n=338 MIN: 11.18 points over 387 games, 90% interval 10.53–11.91 MIN 11.2 n=387 ATL: 11.32 points over 350 games, 90% interval 10.57–12.13 ATL 11.3 n=350 MEM: 11.35 points over 345 games, 90% interval 10.54–12.23 MEM 11.3 n=345 CHI: 11.43 points over 337 games, 90% interval 10.66–12.23 CHI 11.4 n=337 OKC: 11.49 points over 384 games, 90% interval 10.7–12.29 OKC 11.5 n=384 BKN: 11.55 points over 342 games, 90% interval 10.75–12.41 BKN 11.6 n=342 POR: 11.61 points over 342 games, 90% interval 10.75–12.42 POR 11.6 n=342 NYK: 11.63 points over 396 games, 90% interval 10.88–12.36 NYK 11.6 n=396 SAC: 11.66 points over 345 games, 90% interval 10.84–12.46 SAC 11.7 n=345 MIL: 11.68 points over 353 games, 90% interval 10.92–12.46 MIL 11.7 n=353 BOS: 11.96 points over 395 games, 90% interval 11.24–12.73 BOS 12.0 n=395 average margin miss, points (lower = easier to forecast)
Dots: average absolute margin error per team. Lines: 90% bootstrap intervals; overlapping lines mean the difference between those teams is not clear in this sample. Hollow dots: fewer than 20 games.
Sorted by average margin miss (smallest first). Select a column to re-sort. Intervals are 90% bootstrap intervals.
Team Games Margin miss Interval Avg. error Variability Winner picked Wins / exp. Gap Brier
DET Detroit Pistons 356 9.8 9.2–10.5 +0.7 12.6 71% 149 / 164.8 −15.8 0.200
HOU Houston Rockets 350 10.1 9.5–10.7 +0.6 12.6 66% 179 / 178.9 +0.1 0.213
PHX Phoenix Suns 355 10.3 9.6–11.0 −0.6 13.2 67% 184 / 183.9 +0.1 0.217
ORL Orlando Magic 353 10.5 9.8–11.2 −0.1 13.4 64% 175 / 173.4 +1.6 0.221
UTA Utah Jazz 338 10.6 9.8–11.5 −1.7 14.0 70% 108 / 134.4 −26.4 0.198
PHI Philadelphia 76ers 367 10.6 9.9–11.4 +0.3 13.8 61% 192 / 179.5 +12.5 0.226
IND Indiana Pacers 376 10.7 10.0–11.4 +0.1 13.4 62% 176 / 174.3 +1.8 0.224
LAL Los Angeles Lakers 375 10.7 10.0–11.4 +0.4 13.7 64% 216 / 192.5 +23.5 0.218
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 382 10.7 10.1–11.5 +0.3 13.6 70% 239 / 228.9 +10.1 0.207
WAS Washington Wizards 337 10.7 10.1–11.5 −2.3 13.4 72% 89 / 120.5 −31.5 0.193
LAC Los Angeles Clippers 355 10.8 10.0–11.5 +0.3 13.6 68% 195 / 189.3 +5.7 0.213
DEN Denver Nuggets 388 10.8 10.1–11.6 +0.5 14.1 64% 251 / 223.7 +27.3 0.224
SAS San Antonio Spurs 357 10.9 10.1–11.6 +0.6 14.0 71% 159 / 162.5 −3.5 0.201
MIA Miami Heat 369 10.9 10.2–11.7 −0.4 14.3 61% 187 / 190.1 −3.1 0.239
NOP New Orleans Pelicans 342 11.0 10.3–11.7 +0.1 13.9 66% 142 / 152.5 −10.5 0.202
TOR Toronto Raptors 344 11.1 10.3–11.9 −0.4 14.3 65% 150 / 165.3 −15.3 0.213
GSW Golden State Warriors 363 11.1 10.4–11.9 +0.3 14.3 62% 193 / 193.2 −0.2 0.227
DAL Dallas Mavericks 359 11.2 10.4–11.9 −0.1 14.1 56% 172 / 174.7 −2.7 0.242
CHA Charlotte Hornets 338 11.2 10.3–12.1 −0.7 14.8 69% 114 / 134.3 −20.4 0.209
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 387 11.2 10.5–11.9 +1.2 14.0 59% 229 / 212.1 +16.9 0.240
ATL Atlanta Hawks 350 11.3 10.6–12.1 −0.7 14.5 56% 174 / 177.7 −3.7 0.239
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 345 11.3 10.5–12.2 −1.0 14.7 69% 158 / 172.2 −14.2 0.213
CHI Chicago Bulls 337 11.4 10.7–12.2 −1.2 14.3 59% 150 / 160.4 −10.4 0.236
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 384 11.5 10.7–12.3 +2.9 14.7 71% 269 / 236.4 +32.6 0.196
BKN Brooklyn Nets 342 11.6 10.8–12.4 −1.9 14.6 66% 125 / 145.5 −20.5 0.205
POR Portland Trail Blazers 342 11.6 10.8–12.4 −0.7 14.9 66% 139 / 146.4 −7.5 0.216
NYK New York Knicks 396 11.6 10.9–12.4 +1.3 14.6 65% 243 / 226.6 +16.4 0.223
SAC Sacramento Kings 345 11.7 10.8–12.5 −1.1 14.8 60% 160 / 166.2 −6.2 0.236
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 353 11.7 10.9–12.5 −1.0 14.6 65% 191 / 183.8 +7.2 0.216
BOS Boston Celtics 395 12.0 11.2–12.7 +3.0 14.9 69% 282 / 246.0 +36.0 0.209

How to read this

Margin miss
Mean absolute margin error: the average gap, in points, between a team's forecast margin and its actual margin. The headline measure of how hard the team's games were for this model.
Avg. error
Mean signed margin error from the team's side. Positive means the team did better than forecast on average (the model underrated it in this sample); negative, worse.
Variability
Sample standard deviation of the signed margin errors: how much the misses varied from game to game.
Winner picked
Share of the team's games where the forecast winner won. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair predictability ranking.
Wins / exp. and gap
Actual wins against the sum of the team's pregame win probabilities, and the difference.
Brier
Mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 win, 0 loss). Lower is better; 0.25 is what always saying 50% would score.
Samples
Under 20 games a team is marked "small sample" and should not be ranked; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60+ is about a full season. Overlapping intervals mean the difference between two teams is not clear.
Seasons and models
Each season's forecasts come from a model trained only on games before them, and that model changes from season to season. A team moving up or down between seasons can reflect the team, the model, or both.

Calculation version 2026-11-08.1. Methodology · Surprise games