The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 26

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder

Monday, October 26, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

PHX 1–1@OKC 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHX 24 percent, OKC 76 percent. PHX Suns 24% proj. 105 · final 114 OKC Thunder · home 76% proj. 115 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHX Phoenix Suns 105 114 +9
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) 115 125 +10

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans OKC

  • Home court+2.1 OKCWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.1 OKCElo OKC 1706, PHX 1507; season margin OKC +10.6, PHX −1.1.
  • Recent form+2.8 OKCLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: OKC scores 107.9 and allows 107.9; PHX scores 109.7 and allows 120.5.
  • Player availability+2.3 PHXOKC without Jalen Williams (14 ppg) and Chet Holmgren (12 ppg) and 1 more.

Together: OKC by 10, a 76% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

OKC is 3–0, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 107, allowing 96). Last season they were a +11 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 49% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +4, defensive rebounding −1.5. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace are out (32 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX is 1–1, losing by 16 a game on average (scoring 107, allowing 123). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.4, offensive rebounding +1.1. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.5% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.9.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors OKC; left favors PHX.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +7.1, Recent form +2.8, Player availability −2.3, Rest and schedule −0.4, No playoff context +0.2, giving +9.5 for OKC. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +7.1 Recent form +2.8 Player availability −2.3 Rest and schedule −0.4 No playoff context +0.2 Projected margin +9.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +9.5. The 76% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputPHXOKCEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15071706 +0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +270 +5.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.1+10.6 +1.5
Games played this season 23 −0.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.7107.9 +0.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.5107.9 +2.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.4 −0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.032.0 −2.3
Rest days 21 −0.3
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.1
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueOKC ptsPHX ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court269.7+2.15−3.28+5.42
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)120.5+1.94+0.20+1.74
Rotation points missing (home)32.0−1.33+0.15−1.48
Season scoring margin (home)10.6+0.77−0.42+1.19
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.7+0.03−1.06+1.09
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)107.9−0.48−1.34+0.86
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.25+0.53−0.78
Games played (away)2.0+0.14+0.82−0.67
Combined pace, last 1097.4−3.16−2.50−0.66
Elo rating (home)1706.2+0.34−0.20+0.54
Season scoring margin (away)-1.1+0.42+0.06+0.36
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)107.9−0.73−0.46−0.27
Rest days (home)1.0−0.21+0.04−0.26
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.03+0.22
Games played (home)3.0+0.47+0.29+0.17
Back-to-back (home)1−0.09+0.03−0.12
Elo rating (away)1506.5−0.04−0.11+0.08
Series pressure0.0−0.03+0.02−0.05
Rest days (away)2.0±0.00+0.02−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHX1507OKC17066.0 pts toward OKC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHX1507

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. This season's 2 games: −16.8
  • L@POR83–124−22.0
  • WGSW131–122+5.2

OKC1706

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
  2. This season's 3 games: +24.0
  • W@SAS116–104+15.8
  • WDEN96–84+5.4
  • WLAC108–101+2.8
Season scoring marginPHX−1.1OKC+10.61.1 pts toward OKC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHX−1.1

Scores 107.0, allows 123.0 over 2 games: −16.0 a game.

10% this season (−16.0) + 90% last season (+0.6) = −1.1

OKC+10.6

Scores 106.7, allows 96.3 over 3 games: +10.3 a game.

15% this season (+10.3) + 85% last season (+10.7) = +10.6

Offensive rating, last 10PHX109.7OKC107.90.8 pts toward OKC

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX109.7scored, −4.9 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%−4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%12.2%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%26.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210−0.4
Everything else+1.0

OKC107.9scored, −6.7 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.5%54.5%−7.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.0%26.1%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210−0.1
Everything else−0.6
Defensive rating, last 10PHX120.5OKC107.92.6 pts toward OKC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX120.5allowed, +6.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%54.5%−0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.2%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.4%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.210−0.1
Everything else−0.8

OKC107.9allowed, −6.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%54.5%+6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)14.6%12.2%+3.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.4%26.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2320.210−0.6
Everything else−1.4
Pace, last 10average 97.40.7 pts toward PHX

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHX 96.6 and OKC 98.3 → average 97.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPHX0.0OKC32.02.3 pts toward PHX

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

OKC32.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Williams13.731.63
Chet Holmgren12.029.93
Cason Wallace6.316.33

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestPHX2 daysOKC1 days0.4 pts toward PHX

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX2days

Last played Oct 24 against GSW.

OKC1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 25 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 24GSW131–12250-8614-3717-22159129.7119.6101.5
Oct 21@POR83–12430-846-3217-23151386.5126.597.0
Apr 27OKC122–13148-9014-3912-161210125.8136.596.5
Apr 25OKC109–12138-8713-4120-23119111.2122.298.5
Apr 22@OKC107–12039-8511-3118-222115108.1120.099.5
Apr 19@OKC84–11929-8313-3913-18171390.3129.392.5
Apr 12@OKC135–10356-10120-413-61113137.8105.198.0
Apr 10@LAL73–10126-777-4014-21231781.1112.290.0
Apr 8DAL112–10742-9114-3514-171012117.9112.695.0
Apr 7HOU105–11932-757-3134-391810108.2121.497.5

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25LAC108–10142-948-2416-171615105.999.0102.0
Oct 22DEN96–8436-9511-4313-141216102.189.494.0
Oct 20@SAS116–10443-9514-3116-201110113.7102.0102.0
May 30SAS103–11137-8312-3517-221310109.6120.793.0
May 28@SAS91–11835-9410-4011-12121291.0119.299.5
May 26SAS127–11440-8314-3233-381614124.5112.9101.5
May 24@SAS82–10330-916-3316-18171180.4102.0101.5
May 22@SAS123–10839-8117-3828-33107124.2111.398.0
May 20SAS122–11345-9413-3619-24917124.5116.597.5
May 18SAS115–12241-10117-4516-19149102.7106.193.9

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
76%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
OKC was the forecast favorite
1 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual +11 for OKC
124th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
133rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.27 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHXOKC
Final score114125
Field goals39–91 · 42.9%44–86 · 51.2%
Three-pointers18–50 · 36.0%12–32 · 37.5%
Free throws18–25 · 72.0%25–29 · 86.2%
Rebounds3848
Assists2924
Turnovers1216
Steals73
Blocks57

How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)+10+11+1
Total points220239+19
PHX points105114+9
OKC points115125+10

Recent form before this game

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Oct 24 vs GSW W 131–122
Oct 21 at POR L 83–124
Apr 27 vs OKC L 122–131
Apr 25 vs OKC L 109–121
Apr 22 at OKC L 107–120

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 vs LAC W 108–101
Oct 22 vs DEN W 96–84
Oct 20 at SAS W 116–104
May 30 vs SAS L 103–111
May 28 at SAS L 91–118

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 27 2025-26 OKC at PHX OKC 131 – 122 PHX
Apr 25 2025-26 OKC at PHX OKC 121 – 109 PHX
Apr 22 2025-26 PHX at OKC PHX 107 – 120 OKC
Apr 19 2025-26 PHX at OKC PHX 84 – 119 OKC
Apr 12 2025-26 PHX at OKC PHX 135 – 103 OKC