About The Hoop Ledger

The Hoop Ledger is an independent project that predicts the final score of NBA games before tip-off, turns each projection into a win probability, and grades every forecast once the game is over. The aim is a forecast that stands on basketball information alone and is honest about how well it works.

Why "ledger"

A ledger is a record you can't quietly edit. Every forecast here is saved before tip-off, never revised after, and graded against the final score, wins and misses alike. The full record is on the Performance page and in the archive.

What it predicts

For each game: a projected score for both teams, the projected winner, and the probability that the home team wins. It does not predict player statistics, and it does not make betting recommendations.

How it is built

A Python pipeline collects schedules, box scores and the official injury report, stores them in PostgreSQL, and runs gradient-boosted models built with scikit-learn. This website is a static site generated from a read-only export of that database, so it never connects to the database or runs the model itself. Details are on the Methodology page.

Data and attribution

• Schedules, results and box scores: NBA Stats (stats.nba.com).
• Player availability: the official NBA injury report.
• Market lines, where shown: stored for comparison only; they are not model inputs.

Independence

This project is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to the National Basketball Association or any of its teams. Team names are used only to identify games. No team logos or player images are used.

Limitations

Forecasts are uncertain. The site is updated by hand, so results can lag. Forecasts are published for analysis and entertainment and are not betting advice. See Limitations for specifics.