The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 9

2023-24 · Playoffs · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

Thursday, May 9, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DAL 4–4@OKC 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DAL 28 percent, OKC 72 percent. DAL Mavericks 28% proj. 104 · final 119 OKC Thunder · home 72% proj. 113 · final 110
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DAL Dallas Mavericks 104 119 +15
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) 113 110 −3

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDALOKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16011693
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +163
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.2+8.0
Games played this season 8987
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.8115.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.496.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 14.30.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1601OKC1693

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1601

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
  2. First 79 games: +189.8
  3. Last 10 games: −41.5
  • W@MIA111–92+15.2
  • LDET89–107−45.5
  • L@OKC86–135−23.0
  • L@LAC97–109−11.2
  • W@LAC96–93+6.3
  • WLAC101–90+6.7
  • LLAC111–116−10.8
  • W@LAC123–93+24.2
  • WLAC114–101+6.2
  • L@OKC95–117−9.6

OKC1693

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1513 → started this one at 1510
  2. First 77 games: +88.0
  3. Last 10 games: +95.6
  • W@CHA121–118+2.0
  • WSAC112–105+5.3
  • WSAS127–89+6.8
  • WMIL125–107+8.8
  • WDAL135–86+23.0
  • WNOP94–92+2.9
  • WNOP124–92+13.5
  • W@NOP106–85+16.1
  • W@NOP97–89+7.6
  • WDAL117–95+9.6
Season scoring marginDAL+2.2OKC+8.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL+2.2

Scores 116.9, allows 114.6 over 89 games: +2.2 a game.

OKC+8.0

Scores 119.4, allows 111.4 over 87 games: +8.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DAL108.8OKC115.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

DAL108.8scored, −5.7 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.0%54.7%−5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%11.6%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.2%24.1%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.194+0.1
Everything else−1.4

OKC115.9scored, +1.5 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.5%54.7%+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%11.6%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.9%24.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.194−0.4
Everything else−1.1
Defensive rating, last 10DAL111.4OKC96.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

DAL111.4allowed, −3.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.7%+3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%11.6%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%24.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.194+0.2
Everything else+0.8

OKC96.6allowed, −17.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)46.7%54.7%+12.1
Turnovers (TOV%)14.8%11.6%+4.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%24.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1660.194+0.8
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 97.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 94.4 and OKC 99.8 → average 97.1 (league 2023-24 to date: 98.9)

Rotation points missingDAL14.3OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL14.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Olivier-Maxence Prosper8.817.34
Maxi Kleber5.518.58

Source: official injury report, 2024-05-09 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-05-09 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysOKC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played May 7 against OKC.

OKC2days

Last played May 7 against DAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 7@OKC95–11733-8412-3517-251511100.0121.995.5
May 3LAC114–10140-8312-3622-33918126.7112.290.0
May 1@LAC123–9347-8714-3915-2089130.998.994.0
Apr 28LAC111–11640-8111-3320-251614116.8126.193.5
Apr 26LAC101–9039-869-3514-19811112.2101.189.5
Apr 23@LAC96–9332-7614-3318-271311104.3101.192.0
Apr 21@LAC97–10931-8010-3325-3389104.3117.293.0
Apr 14@OKC86–13532-978-3914-17141281.9127.4105.5
Apr 12DET89–10736-838-299-1220989.0107.0100.0
Apr 10@MIA111–9243-8715-4410-1378122.0101.191.0

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 7DAL117–9540-8916-3521-28915121.9100.095.5
Apr 29@NOP97–8935-8212-4015-2414899.089.998.5
Apr 27@NOP106–8540-8317-369-13169108.286.798.0
Apr 24NOP124–9246-7814-2918-2085131.9100.093.0
Apr 21NOP94–9237-8510-3210-13138100.097.994.0
Apr 14DAL135–8654-9714-3413-161411127.481.9105.5
Apr 12MIL125–10747-8913-3818-20108123.8107.0100.5
Apr 10SAS127–8947-10116-3817-21127111.478.1114.0
Apr 9SAC112–10539-8011-3023-31136109.8102.9102.0
Apr 7@CHA121–11845-8718-3613-171610126.0121.696.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored OKC
18 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual −9 for OKC
23rd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
262nd
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.26 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDALOKC
Final score119110
Field goals42–90 · 46.7%42–89 · 47.2%
Three-pointers18–37 · 48.6%10–30 · 33.3%
Free throws17–24 · 70.8%16–17 · 94.1%
Rebounds4441
Assists3025
Turnovers1010
Steals85
Blocks66

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)+9−9−18
Total points217229+12
DAL points104119+15
OKC points113110−3

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DAL36323120–119
OKC32302721–110

Recent form before this game

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
May 7 at OKC L 95–117
May 3 vs LAC W 114–101
May 1 at LAC W 123–93
Apr 28 vs LAC L 111–116
Apr 26 vs LAC W 101–90

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
May 7 vs DAL W 117–95
Apr 29 at NOP W 97–89
Apr 27 at NOP W 106–85
Apr 24 vs NOP W 124–92
Apr 21 vs NOP W 94–92

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
May 7 2023-24 DAL at OKC DAL 95 – 117 OKC
Apr 14 2023-24 DAL at OKC DAL 86 – 135 OKC
Mar 14 2023-24 DAL at OKC DAL 119 – 126 OKC
Feb 10 2023-24 OKC at DAL OKC 111 – 146 DAL
Dec 2 2023-24 OKC at DAL OKC 126 – 120 DAL