2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, April 12, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET
PHX 3–3@OKC 3–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHX Phoenix Suns | 104 | 135 | +31 |
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) | 121 | 103 | −18 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 87% win probability, projected margin 17.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | PHX | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1506 | 1752 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +315 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +1.1 | +11.8 |
| Games played this season | 81 | 80 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 114.8 | 122.3 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 112.9 | 106.6 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.3 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 64.8 | 108.1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingPHX1506OKC1752
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
PHX1506
- Ended last season at 1429 → started this one at 1447
- First 71 games: +61.2
- Last 10 games: −1.5
- WTOR120–98+14.8
- LDEN123–125−4.8
- WUTA134–109+4.5
- W@MEM131–105+13.1
- L@ORL111–115−5.5
- L@CHA107–127−7.7
- W@CHI120–110+6.6
- LHOU105–119−13.0
- WDAL112–107+2.3
- L@LAL73–101−11.8
OKC1752
- Ended last season at 1760 → started this one at 1695
- First 70 games: +28.6
- Last 10 games: +28.0
- W@PHI123–103+8.4
- L@BOS109–119−11.2
- WCHI131–113+2.0
- WNYK111–100+6.1
- WDET114–110+3.7
- WLAL139–96+12.7
- WUTA146–111+1.4
- W@LAL123–87+17.7
- W@LAC128–110+8.6
- L@DEN107–127−21.4
Season scoring marginPHX+1.1OKC+11.8
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
PHX+1.1
Scores 112.3, allows 111.2 over 81 games: +1.1 a game.
OKC+11.8
Scores 119.3, allows 107.5 over 80 games: +11.8 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10PHX114.8OKC122.3
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
PHX114.8scored, +0.1 vs league
| Factor | PHX | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.2% | 54.7% | −2.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.2% | 12.2% | −0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 32.3% | 26.0% | +2.8 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.195 | 0.209 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | −0.0 |
OKC122.3scored, +7.6 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 59.1% | 54.7% | +6.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.2% | 12.2% | +1.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.4% | 26.0% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.205 | 0.209 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
Defensive rating, last 10PHX112.9OKC106.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
PHX112.9allowed, −1.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.4% | 54.7% | +0.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.7% | 12.2% | +2.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.9% | 26.0% | +0.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.232 | 0.209 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
OKC106.6allowed, −8.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.8% | 54.7% | +2.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.8% | 12.2% | +2.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.1% | 26.0% | +1.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.168 | 0.209 | +1.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.6 |
Pace, last 10average 99.3
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
PHX 98.8 and OKC 99.8 → average 99.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingPHX64.8OKC108.1
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
PHX64.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 29.2 | 33.5 | 9 |
| Dillon Brooks | 14.5 | 28.6 | 6 |
| Grayson Allen | 12.1 | 22.1 | 7 |
| Royce O'Neale | 8.9 | 22.9 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-12 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
OKC108.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 27.8 | 31.6 | 9 |
| Chet Holmgren | 16.1 | 26.4 | 8 |
| Jalen Williams | 15.4 | 25.8 | 7 |
| Isaiah Joe | 11.8 | 15.7 | 9 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 9.8 | 23.9 | 8 |
| Cason Wallace | 8.8 | 22.9 | 9 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 6.9 | 20.2 | 8 |
| Jaylin Williams | 6.4 | 16.6 | 9 |
| Alex Caruso | 5.1 | 16.8 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-12 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
RestPHX2 daysOKC2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
PHX2days
Last played Apr 10 against LAL.
OKC2days
Last played Apr 10 against DEN.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
PHX
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | @LAL | 73–101 | 26-77 | 7-40 | 14-21 | 23 | 17 | 81.1 | 112.2 | 90.0 |
| Apr 8 | DAL | 112–107 | 42-91 | 14-35 | 14-17 | 10 | 12 | 117.9 | 112.6 | 95.0 |
| Apr 7 | HOU | 105–119 | 32-75 | 7-31 | 34-39 | 18 | 10 | 108.2 | 121.4 | 97.5 |
| Apr 5 | @CHI | 120–110 | 45-89 | 13-32 | 17-22 | 15 | 11 | 117.6 | 105.8 | 103.0 |
| Apr 2 | @CHA | 107–127 | 42-91 | 16-39 | 7-10 | 12 | 8 | 112.6 | 132.3 | 95.5 |
| Mar 31 | @ORL | 111–115 | 35-88 | 14-46 | 27-35 | 20 | 11 | 101.8 | 106.5 | 108.5 |
| Mar 30 | @MEM | 131–105 | 55-109 | 17-45 | 4-8 | 10 | 20 | 132.3 | 106.1 | 99.0 |
| Mar 28 | UTA | 134–109 | 52-104 | 17-53 | 13-21 | 12 | 20 | 127.6 | 103.8 | 105.0 |
| Mar 24 | DEN | 123–125 | 39-89 | 17-47 | 28-37 | 3 | 10 | 124.2 | 127.6 | 98.5 |
| Mar 22 | TOR | 120–98 | 46-89 | 18-40 | 10-10 | 16 | 14 | 125.0 | 101.0 | 96.5 |
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | @DEN | 107–127 | 42-99 | 14-44 | 9-12 | 13 | 15 | 103.9 | 124.5 | 102.5 |
| Apr 8 | @LAC | 128–110 | 48-83 | 13-34 | 19-24 | 13 | 6 | 129.3 | 111.1 | 99.0 |
| Apr 7 | @LAL | 123–87 | 45-89 | 21-41 | 12-14 | 12 | 10 | 128.1 | 89.7 | 96.5 |
| Apr 5 | UTA | 146–111 | 54-92 | 24-45 | 14-16 | 15 | 8 | 136.4 | 101.8 | 108.0 |
| Apr 2 | LAL | 139–96 | 55-102 | 19-42 | 10-13 | 10 | 13 | 135.0 | 93.2 | 103.0 |
| Mar 30 | DET | 114–110 | 38-81 | 10-34 | 28-32 | 17 | 6 | 108.6 | 104.8 | 95.1 |
| Mar 29 | NYK | 111–100 | 35-75 | 10-28 | 31-38 | 13 | 12 | 120.7 | 107.5 | 92.5 |
| Mar 27 | CHI | 131–113 | 47-101 | 14-45 | 23-31 | 9 | 15 | 126.0 | 107.6 | 104.5 |
| Mar 25 | @BOS | 109–119 | 38-80 | 12-37 | 21-26 | 7 | 4 | 113.5 | 122.7 | 96.5 |
| Mar 23 | @PHI | 123–103 | 48-90 | 18-41 | 9-10 | 15 | 11 | 121.8 | 103.0 | 100.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | PHX | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 135 | 103 |
| Field goals | 56–101 · 55.4% | 41–95 · 43.2% |
| Three-pointers | 20–41 · 48.8% | 18–46 · 39.1% |
| Free throws | 3–6 · 50.0% | 3–9 · 33.3% |
| Rebounds | 54 | 36 |
| Assists | 28 | 32 |
| Turnovers | 11 | 10 |
| Steals | 5 | 9 |
| Blocks | 8 | 7 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · Oklahoma City Thunder
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (OKC) | +17 | −32 | −49 |
| Total points | 225 | 238 | +13 |
| PHX points | 104 | 135 | +31 |
| OKC points | 121 | 103 | −18 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 2025-26 | OKC at PHX | OKC 136 – 109 PHX |
| Jan 4 2025-26 | OKC at PHX | OKC 105 – 108 PHX |
| Dec 10 2025-26 | PHX at OKC | PHX 89 – 138 OKC |
| Nov 28 2025-26 | PHX at OKC | PHX 119 – 123 OKC |
| Apr 9 2024-25 | OKC at PHX | OKC 125 – 112 PHX |