Western Conference · 2026-27

Dallas Mavericks DAL

6–4

2026-27 record

1431

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

114.4

Offensive rating

last 10 games

111.5

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

101.0

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded DAL game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 202 of 359 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of DAL's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. DAL ranks 22 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 8:00 PM ET

IND Indiana Pacers 3–7 –

@DAL Dallas Mavericks 6–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 12 8:00 PM ET

DAL Dallas Mavericks 6–4 –

@MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 8–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 7:30 PM ET

DAL Dallas Mavericks 6–4 –

@CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 5–5 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked DAL games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

14.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.7 to 19.8

+6.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.6 to 15.5

17.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

50%

winner picked

10 games involving DAL

6 / 4.4

actual / expected wins

gap +1.6

0.249

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs BKN	74%	118–109	W 130–93	✓correct	+28
Nov 6	vs UTA	69%	121–114	W 112–100	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	at SAS	25%	108–117	L 111–112	✓correct	+8
Nov 2	vs SAC	74%	123–114	L 100–115	✗missed	−24
Oct 30	vs HOU	38%	112–116	W 116–111	✗missed	+9
Oct 28	vs OKC	28%	114–122	W 120–96	✗missed	+32
Oct 26	at MIA	39%	121–125	W 113–109	✗missed	+8
Oct 24	vs SAS	22%	112–123	L 106–122	✓correct	−5
Oct 23	at IND	44%	119–121	W 121–105	✗missed	+18
Oct 21	at HOU	28%	112–120	L 110–128	✓correct	−10

2025-26

9.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.4 to 11.1; 2nd smallest of 30

−1.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.3 to 1.1

12.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

61%

winner picked

81 games involving DAL

26 / 32.0

actual / expected wins

gap −6.0

0.221

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 81 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	vs CHI	47%	116–117	W 149–128	✗missed	+22
Apr 10	at SAS	6%	105–129	L 120–139	✓correct	+5
Apr 8	at PHX	11%	109–127	L 107–112	✓correct	+13
Apr 7	at LAC	17%	113–127	L 103–116	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs LAL	27%	116–125	W 134–128	✗missed	+15
Apr 3	vs ORL	34%	114–120	L 127–138	✓correct	−5
Mar 31	at MIL	53%	117–116	L 99–123	✗missed	−25
Mar 30	vs MIN	34%	114–120	L 94–124	✓correct	−24
Mar 27	at POR	20%	113–125	W 100–93	✗missed	+19
Mar 25	at DEN	20%	114–126	L 135–142	✓correct	+5
Mar 23	vs GSW	42%	115–118	L 131–137	✓correct	−3
Mar 21	vs LAC	34%	116–122	L 131–138	✓correct	−1
Mar 18	vs ATL	31%	112–119	L 120–135	✓correct	−8
Mar 16	at NOP	34%	115–121	L 111–129	✓correct	−12
Mar 15	at CLE	26%	106–115	W 130–120	✗missed	+19
Mar 13	vs CLE	22%	105–116	L 105–138	✓correct	−22
Mar 12	at MEM	47%	117–118	W 120–112	✗missed	+9
Mar 10	at ATL	26%	113–122	L 112–124	✓correct	−3
Mar 8	at TOR	22%	110–121	L 92–122	✓correct	−19
Mar 6	at BOS	20%	105–117	L 100–120	✓correct	−8
Mar 5	at ORL	29%	112–120	L 114–115	✓correct	+7
Mar 3	at CHA	11%	108–126	L 90–117	✓correct	−9
Mar 1	vs OKC	14%	110–126	L 87–100	✓correct	+3
Feb 27	vs MEM	47%	118–119	L 105–124	✓correct	−18
Feb 26	vs SAC	69%	122–115	L 121–130	✗missed	−16
Feb 24	at BKN	58%	118–115	W 123–114	✓correct	+6
Feb 22	at IND	61%	119–115	W 134–130	✓correct	±0
Feb 20	at MIN	10%	109–128	L 111–122	✓correct	+8
Feb 12	at LAL	44%	116–118	L 104–124	✓correct	−18
Feb 10	at PHX	31%	113–120	L 111–120	✓correct	−2
Feb 7	at SAS	26%	113–122	L 125–138	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	vs SAS	47%	115–116	L 123–135	✓correct	−11
Feb 3	vs BOS	36%	109–114	L 100–110	✓correct	−5
Jan 31	at HOU	29%	112–120	L 107–111	✓correct	+4
Jan 29	vs CHA	44%	113–115	L 121–123	✓correct	±0
Jan 28	vs MIN	47%	116–117	L 105–118	✓correct	−12
Jan 24	vs LAL	47%	115–116	L 110–116	✓correct	−5
Jan 22	vs GSW	47%	116–117	W 123–115	✗missed	+9
Jan 19	at NYK	34%	113–119	W 114–97	✗missed	+23
Jan 17	vs UTA	64%	118–113	W 138–120	✓correct	+13
Jan 15	vs UTA	47%	113–114	W 144–122	✗missed	+23
Jan 14	vs DEN	53%	112–111	L 109–118	✗missed	−10
Jan 12	vs BKN	53%	111–110	W 113–105	✓correct	+7
Jan 10	at CHI	47%	115–116	L 107–125	✓correct	−17
Jan 8	at UTA	53%	119–118	L 114–116	✗missed	−3
Jan 6	at SAC	61%	119–115	W 100–98	✓correct	−2
Jan 3	vs HOU	36%	113–118	W 110–104	✗missed	+11
Jan 1	vs PHI	53%	118–117	L 108–123	✗missed	−16
Dec 29	at POR	47%	117–118	L 122–125	✓correct	−2
Dec 27	at SAC	64%	119–114	L 107–113	✗missed	−11
Dec 25	at GSW	34%	113–119	L 116–126	✓correct	−4
Dec 23	vs DEN	34%	115–121	W 131–130	✗missed	+7
Dec 22	at NOP	56%	120–118	L 113–119	✗missed	−8
Dec 20	at PHI	53%	115–114	L 114–121	✗missed	−8
Dec 18	vs DET	36%	115–120	W 116–114	✗missed	+7
Dec 15	at UTA	58%	120–117	L 133–140	✗missed	−10
Dec 12	vs BKN	67%	116–110	W 119–111	✓correct	+2
Dec 6	vs HOU	29%	109–117	W 122–109	✗missed	+21
Dec 5	at OKC	11%	107–125	L 111–132	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	vs MIA	39%	114–118	W 118–108	✗missed	+14
Dec 1	at DEN	17%	112–126	W 131–121	✗missed	+24
Nov 29	at LAC	36%	112–117	W 114–110	✗missed	+9
Nov 28	at LAL	24%	111–121	L 119–129	✓correct	±0
Nov 24	at MIA	26%	115–124	L 102–106	✓correct	+5
Nov 22	vs MEM	53%	115–114	L 96–102	✗missed	−7
Nov 21	vs NOP	67%	117–111	W 118–115	✓correct	−3
Nov 19	vs NYK	44%	115–117	L 111–113	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	at MIN	22%	111–122	L 96–120	✓correct	−13
Nov 16	vs POR	42%	116–119	W 138–133	✗missed	+8
Nov 14	vs LAC	56%	114–112	L 127–133	✗missed	−8
Nov 12	vs PHX	44%	115–117	L 114–123	✓correct	−7
Nov 10	vs MIL	47%	118–119	L 114–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 8	at WAS	56%	117–115	W 111–105	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	at MEM	41%	117–120	L 104–118	✓correct	−11
Nov 5	vs NOP	71%	119–111	L 99–101	✗missed	−10
Nov 3	at HOU	17%	106–120	L 102–110	✓correct	+6
Oct 29	vs IND	47%	115–116	W 107–105	✗missed	+3
Oct 27	vs OKC	24%	112–122	L 94–101	✓correct	+3
Oct 26	vs TOR	42%	118–121	W 139–129	✗missed	+13
Oct 24	vs WAS	67%	117–111	L 107–117	✗missed	−16
Oct 22	vs SAS	56%	118–116	L 92–125	✗missed	−35

2024-25

11.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.7 to 12.4; 16th smallest of 30

−1.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.1 to 0.8

13.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

62%

winner picked

82 games involving DAL

39 / 41.9

actual / expected wins

gap −2.9

0.234

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	at MEM	46%	116–117	L 97–132	✓correct	−34
Apr 11	vs TOR	67%	117–111	W 124–102	✓correct	+16
Apr 9	vs LAL	41%	114–118	L 97–112	✓correct	−11
Apr 5	at LAC	23%	110–121	L 104–135	✓correct	−20
Apr 4	at LAC	27%	111–120	L 91–114	✓correct	−14
Apr 2	vs ATL	49%	120–121	W 120–118	✗missed	+3
Mar 31	vs BKN	79%	121–109	L 109–113	✗missed	−16
Mar 29	at CHI	31%	116–123	W 120–119	✗missed	+8
Mar 27	at ORL	33%	110–116	W 101–92	✗missed	+15
Mar 25	at NYK	38%	111–115	L 113–128	✓correct	−11
Mar 24	at BKN	59%	114–110	W 120–101	✓correct	+15
Mar 21	vs DET	23%	111–123	W 123–117	✗missed	+18
Mar 19	at IND	31%	116–123	L 131–135	✓correct	+3
Mar 16	vs PHI	62%	120–116	L 125–130	✗missed	−9
Mar 14	at HOU	23%	108–119	L 96–133	✓correct	−26
Mar 12	at SAS	41%	119–122	L 116–126	✓correct	−7
Mar 10	at SAS	38%	117–121	W 133–129	✗missed	+8
Mar 9	vs PHX	46%	115–117	L 116–125	✓correct	−7
Mar 7	vs MEM	41%	115–119	L 111–122	✓correct	−7
Mar 5	at MIL	31%	111–118	L 107–137	✓correct	−23
Mar 3	vs SAC	49%	114–115	L 98–122	✓correct	−23
Mar 1	vs MIL	62%	116–112	L 117–132	✗missed	−19
Feb 27	vs CHA	77%	117–106	W 103–96	✓correct	−4
Feb 25	at LAL	29%	113–121	L 99–107	✓correct	±0
Feb 23	at GSW	38%	114–118	L 102–126	✓correct	−20
Feb 21	vs NOP	77%	125–114	W 111–103	✓correct	−3
Feb 13	vs MIA	67%	115–109	W 118–113	✓correct	−1
Feb 12	vs GSW	49%	119–120	W 111–107	✗missed	+5
Feb 10	vs SAC	62%	122–118	L 128–129	✗missed	−5
Feb 8	vs HOU	49%	114–115	W 116–105	✗missed	+12
Feb 6	at BOS	31%	110–117	W 127–120	✗missed	+14
Feb 4	at PHI	59%	117–113	L 116–118	✗missed	−6
Feb 2	at CLE	19%	111–124	L 101–144	✓correct	−30
Jan 31	at DET	46%	115–116	L 102–117	✓correct	−14
Jan 29	at NOP	59%	118–114	W 137–136	✓correct	−3
Jan 27	vs WAS	82%	122–108	W 130–108	✓correct	+8
Jan 25	vs BOS	44%	104–107	L 107–122	✓correct	−12
Jan 23	at OKC	19%	110–123	W 121–115	✗missed	+19
Jan 22	vs MIN	59%	110–107	L 114–115	✗missed	−4
Jan 20	at CHA	56%	114–111	L 105–110	✗missed	−8
Jan 17	vs OKC	32%	109–117	W 106–98	✗missed	+16
Jan 15	at NOP	54%	115–113	L 116–119	✗missed	−5
Jan 14	vs DEN	57%	114–112	L 99–118	✗missed	−21
Jan 12	vs DEN	46%	112–114	L 101–112	✓correct	−9
Jan 9	vs POR	67%	114–108	W 117–111	✓correct	±0
Jan 7	vs LAL	54%	113–112	W 118–97	✓correct	+20
Jan 6	at MEM	46%	118–119	L 104–119	✓correct	−14
Jan 3	vs CLE	34%	106–113	L 122–134	✓correct	−5
Jan 1	at HOU	38%	107–111	L 99–110	✓correct	−7
Dec 30	at SAC	36%	114–119	L 100–110	✓correct	−5
Dec 28	at POR	56%	116–113	L 122–126	✗missed	−7
Dec 27	at PHX	51%	116–115	W 98–89	✓correct	+8
Dec 25	vs MIN	75%	118–108	L 99–105	✗missed	−16
Dec 23	vs POR	85%	124–108	W 132–108	✓correct	+8
Dec 21	vs LAC	64%	118–113	W 113–97	✓correct	+11
Dec 19	vs LAC	69%	118–111	L 95–118	✗missed	−30
Dec 15	at GSW	41%	112–115	W 143–133	✗missed	+13
Dec 10	at OKC	33%	115–121	L 104–118	✓correct	−8
Dec 7	at TOR	54%	117–115	W 125–118	✓correct	+5
Dec 5	at WAS	82%	126–111	W 137–101	✓correct	+21
Dec 3	vs MEM	69%	121–114	W 121–116	✓correct	−2
Dec 1	at POR	56%	116–113	W 137–131	✓correct	+3
Nov 30	at UTA	59%	119–115	W 106–94	✓correct	+8
Nov 27	vs NYK	59%	118–115	W 129–114	✓correct	+12
Nov 25	at ATL	56%	117–114	W 129–119	✓correct	+7
Nov 24	at MIA	43%	111–113	L 118–123	✓correct	−3
Nov 22	at DEN	33%	113–119	W 123–120	✗missed	+9
Nov 19	vs NOP	82%	118–104	W 132–91	✓correct	+27
Nov 17	at OKC	19%	108–121	W 121–119	✗missed	+15
Nov 16	vs SAS	75%	119–109	W 110–93	✓correct	+7
Nov 14	at UTA	66%	119–112	L 113–115	✗missed	−9
Nov 12	at GSW	29%	111–119	L 117–120	✓correct	+5
Nov 10	at DEN	33%	110–116	L 120–122	✓correct	+4
Nov 8	vs PHX	59%	113–110	L 113–114	✗missed	−4
Nov 6	vs CHI	67%	119–113	W 119–99	✓correct	+14
Nov 4	vs IND	62%	112–108	L 127–134	✗missed	−11
Nov 3	vs ORL	69%	110–103	W 108–85	✓correct	+16
Oct 31	vs HOU	64%	114–109	L 102–108	✗missed	−11
Oct 29	at MIN	46%	105–106	W 120–114	✗missed	+7
Oct 28	vs UTA	77%	115–104	W 110–102	✓correct	−3
Oct 26	at PHX	54%	108–106	L 102–114	✗missed	−14
Oct 24	vs SAS	77%	113–102	W 120–109	✓correct	±0

2023-24

13.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.5 to 14.7; 29th smallest of 30

+2.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.1 to 4.8

16.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

54%

winner picked

104 games involving DAL

63 / 51.7

actual / expected wins

gap +11.3

0.245

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 104 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Jun 17 PO	at BOS	47%	110–109	L 88–106	✗missed	−19
Jun 14 PO	vs BOS	51%	105–107	W 122–84	✗missed	+40
Jun 12 PO	vs BOS	53%	105–106	L 99–106	✓correct	−6
Jun 9 PO	at BOS	41%	106–108	L 98–105	✓correct	−5
Jun 6 PO	at BOS	34%	105–111	L 89–107	✓correct	−12
May 30 PO	at MIN	43%	107–108	W 124–103	✗missed	+22
May 28 PO	vs MIN	59%	107–105	L 100–105	✗missed	−7
May 26 PO	vs MIN	53%	107–108	W 116–107	✗missed	+10
May 24 PO	at MIN	37%	107–111	W 109–108	✗missed	+5
May 22 PO	at MIN	35%	107–112	W 108–105	✗missed	+8
May 18 PO	vs OKC	61%	104–101	W 117–116	✓correct	−2
May 15 PO	at OKC	34%	104–110	W 104–92	✗missed	+18
May 13 PO	vs OKC	57%	102–101	L 96–100	✗missed	−5
May 11 PO	vs OKC	49%	100–103	W 105–101	✗missed	+7
May 9 PO	at OKC	28%	104–113	W 119–110	✗missed	+18
May 7 PO	at OKC	28%	106–115	L 95–117	✓correct	−13
May 3 PO	vs LAC	67%	109–103	W 114–101	✓correct	+7
May 1 PO	at LAC	41%	105–107	W 123–93	✗missed	+32
Apr 28 PO	vs LAC	63%	110–106	L 111–116	✗missed	−9
Apr 26 PO	vs LAC	67%	112–106	W 101–90	✓correct	+5
Apr 23 PO	at LAC	34%	106–112	W 96–93	✗missed	+9
Apr 21 PO	at LAC	37%	108–112	L 97–109	✓correct	−8
Apr 14	at OKC	22%	107–120	L 86–135	✓correct	−36
Apr 12	vs DET	79%	118–104	L 89–107	✗missed	−32
Apr 10	at MIA	43%	107–108	W 111–92	✗missed	+20
Apr 9	at CHA	59%	117–110	W 130–104	✓correct	+19
Apr 7	vs HOU	65%	115–110	W 147–136	✓correct	+6
Apr 5	vs GSW	61%	112–109	W 108–106	✓correct	−1
Apr 4	vs ATL	65%	113–108	W 109–95	✓correct	+9
Apr 2	at GSW	37%	109–113	L 100–104	✓correct	±0
Mar 31	at HOU	39%	113–116	W 125–107	✗missed	+21
Mar 29	at SAC	43%	112–113	W 107–103	✗missed	+5
Mar 26	at SAC	37%	110–114	W 132–96	✗missed	+40
Mar 25	at UTA	57%	122–116	W 115–105	✓correct	+4
Mar 21	vs UTA	73%	122–112	W 113–97	✓correct	+6
Mar 19	at SAS	53%	116–112	W 113–107	✓correct	+2
Mar 17	vs DEN	49%	115–118	W 107–105	✗missed	+5
Mar 14	at OKC	25%	111–122	L 119–126	✓correct	+4
Mar 13	vs GSW	61%	120–117	W 109–99	✓correct	+7
Mar 11	at CHI	47%	116–115	W 127–92	✓correct	+34
Mar 9	at DET	55%	120–115	W 142–124	✓correct	+13
Mar 7	vs MIA	61%	117–114	W 114–108	✓correct	+3
Mar 5	vs IND	59%	119–117	L 120–137	✗missed	−19
Mar 3	vs PHI	65%	119–114	L 116–120	✗missed	−9
Mar 1	at BOS	35%	112–117	L 110–138	✓correct	−23
Feb 28	at TOR	49%	120–118	W 136–125	✓correct	+9
Feb 27	at CLE	37%	112–116	L 119–121	✓correct	+2
Feb 25	at IND	41%	116–118	L 111–133	✓correct	−20
Feb 22	vs PHX	61%	119–116	W 123–113	✓correct	+7
Feb 14	vs SAS	73%	121–111	W 116–93	✓correct	+13
Feb 12	vs WAS	70%	122–114	W 112–104	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	vs OKC	53%	115–116	W 146–111	✗missed	+36
Feb 8	at NYK	39%	111–114	W 122–108	✗missed	+17
Feb 6	at BKN	34%	114–120	W 119–107	✗missed	+18
Feb 5	at PHI	35%	115–120	W 118–102	✗missed	+21
Feb 3	vs MIL	43%	118–124	L 117–129	✓correct	−6
Jan 31	at MIN	22%	108–121	L 87–121	✓correct	−21
Jan 29	vs ORL	53%	112–113	W 131–129	✗missed	+3
Jan 27	vs SAC	47%	118–122	L 115–120	✓correct	−1
Jan 26	at ATL	39%	115–118	W 148–143	✗missed	+8
Jan 24	vs PHX	53%	115–116	L 109–132	✓correct	−22
Jan 22	vs BOS	57%	120–119	L 110–119	✗missed	−10
Jan 17	at LAL	41%	116–118	L 110–127	✓correct	−15
Jan 15	vs NOP	41%	111–118	W 125–120	✗missed	+12
Jan 13	vs NOP	57%	114–113	L 108–118	✗missed	−11
Jan 11	vs NYK	51%	117–119	W 128–124	✗missed	+6
Jan 9	vs MEM	70%	120–112	L 103–120	✗missed	−25
Jan 7	vs MIN	59%	116–114	W 115–108	✓correct	+5
Jan 5	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 139–103	✓correct	+29
Jan 3	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 126–97	✓correct	+22
Jan 1	at UTA	47%	118–117	L 90–127	✗missed	−38
Dec 30	at GSW	37%	115–119	W 132–122	✗missed	+14
Dec 28	at MIN	25%	110–121	L 110–118	✓correct	+3
Dec 27	vs CLE	65%	119–114	L 110–113	✗missed	−8
Dec 25	at PHX	39%	115–118	W 128–114	✗missed	+17
Dec 23	vs SAS	70%	120–112	W 144–119	✓correct	+17
Dec 22	at HOU	28%	113–122	L 96–122	✓correct	−17
Dec 20	vs LAC	47%	113–117	L 111–120	✓correct	−5
Dec 18	at DEN	34%	111–117	L 104–130	✓correct	−20
Dec 16	at POR	49%	113–111	W 131–120	✓correct	+9
Dec 14	vs MIN	53%	112–113	L 101–119	✓correct	−17
Dec 12	vs LAL	57%	116–115	W 127–125	✓correct	+1
Dec 11	at MEM	43%	110–111	W 120–113	✗missed	+8
Dec 8	at POR	57%	115–109	W 125–112	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	vs UTA	73%	121–111	W 147–97	✓correct	+40
Dec 2	vs OKC	53%	114–115	L 120–126	✓correct	−5
Dec 1	vs MEM	65%	117–112	L 94–108	✗missed	−19
Nov 28	vs HOU	49%	110–113	W 121–115	✗missed	+9
Nov 25	at LAC	39%	114–117	L 88–107	✓correct	−16
Nov 22	at LAL	37%	113–117	W 104–101	✗missed	+7
Nov 19	vs SAC	63%	120–116	L 113–129	✗missed	−20
Nov 18	at MIL	41%	115–117	L 125–132	✓correct	−5
Nov 15	at WAS	57%	118–112	W 130–117	✓correct	+7
Nov 14	at NOP	53%	117–113	L 110–131	✗missed	−25
Nov 12	at NOP	43%	114–115	W 136–124	✗missed	+13
Nov 10	vs LAC	61%	118–115	W 144–126	✓correct	+15
Nov 8	vs TOR	61%	116–113	L 116–127	✗missed	−14
Nov 6	at ORL	37%	113–117	W 117–102	✗missed	+19
Nov 5	vs CHA	72%	120–111	W 124–118	✓correct	−3
Nov 3	at DEN	35%	109–114	L 114–125	✓correct	−6
Nov 1	vs CHI	63%	117–113	W 114–105	✓correct	+5
Oct 30	at MEM	35%	113–118	W 125–110	✗missed	+20
Oct 27	vs BKN	51%	112–114	W 125–120	✗missed	+7
Oct 25	at SAS	57%	123–117	W 126–119	✓correct	+1

2022-23

9.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.3 to 11.6; 11th smallest of 30

−1.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.1 to 0.7

13.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

50%

winner picked

82 games involving DAL

38 / 44.7

actual / expected wins

gap −6.7

0.266

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	vs SAS	74%	124–114	L 117–138	✗missed	−31
Apr 7	vs CHI	40%	109–113	L 112–115	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs SAC	53%	120–119	W 123–119	✓correct	+3
Apr 2	at ATL	53%	121–120	L 130–132	✗missed	−3
Apr 1	at MIA	60%	114–110	L 122–129	✗missed	−11
Mar 29	at PHI	30%	106–114	L 108–116	✓correct	±0
Mar 27	at IND	55%	120–118	W 127–104	✓correct	+21
Mar 26	at CHA	74%	118–108	L 104–110	✗missed	−16
Mar 24	vs CHA	78%	120–108	L 109–117	✗missed	−20
Mar 22	vs GSW	53%	118–117	L 125–127	✗missed	−3
Mar 20	at MEM	28%	107–116	L 108–112	✓correct	+5
Mar 17	at LAL	35%	113–119	W 111–110	✗missed	+7
Mar 15	at SAS	78%	125–113	W 137–128	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	vs MEM	55%	119–117	L 88–104	✗missed	−18
Mar 11	at MEM	22%	109–121	L 108–112	✓correct	+8
Mar 8	at NOP	55%	117–115	L 106–113	✗missed	−9
Mar 7	vs UTA	55%	119–117	W 120–116	✓correct	+2
Mar 5	vs PHX	45%	113–115	L 126–130	✓correct	−2
Mar 2	vs PHI	53%	111–110	W 133–126	✓correct	+6
Feb 28	vs IND	68%	121–114	L 122–124	✗missed	−9
Feb 26	vs LAL	60%	119–115	L 108–111	✗missed	−7
Feb 23	vs SAS	83%	122–107	W 142–116	✓correct	+11
Feb 15	at DEN	32%	110–117	L 109–118	✓correct	−2
Feb 13	vs MIN	47%	115–116	L 121–124	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	at SAC	53%	114–113	L 128–133	✗missed	−6
Feb 10	at SAC	35%	108–114	W 122–114	✗missed	+14
Feb 8	at LAC	42%	107–110	W 110–104	✗missed	+9
Feb 6	at UTA	30%	110–118	W 124–111	✗missed	+21
Feb 4	at GSW	35%	113–119	L 113–119	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	vs NOP	55%	112–110	W 111–106	✓correct	+3
Jan 30	vs DET	74%	120–110	W 111–105	✓correct	−4
Jan 28	at UTA	37%	112–117	L 100–108	✓correct	−3
Jan 26	at PHX	35%	111–117	W 99–95	✗missed	+10
Jan 24	vs WAS	47%	113–114	L 126–127	✓correct	±0
Jan 22	vs LAC	65%	115–109	L 98–112	✗missed	−20
Jan 20	vs MIA	45%	109–111	W 115–90	✗missed	+27
Jan 18	vs ATL	47%	115–116	L 122–130	✓correct	−7
Jan 15	at POR	63%	118–113	L 123–140	✗missed	−22
Jan 14	at POR	65%	118–112	L 119–136	✗missed	−23
Jan 12	at LAL	42%	115–118	W 119–115	✗missed	+7
Jan 10	at LAC	58%	115–112	L 101–113	✗missed	−15
Jan 8	at OKC	53%	116–115	L 109–120	✗missed	−12
Jan 7	vs NOP	53%	112–111	W 127–117	✓correct	+9
Jan 5	vs BOS	53%	114–113	L 95–124	✗missed	−30
Jan 2	at HOU	63%	115–110	W 111–106	✓correct	±0
Dec 31	at SAS	65%	117–111	W 126–125	✓correct	−5
Dec 29	vs HOU	76%	114–103	W 129–114	✓correct	+4
Dec 27	vs NYK	55%	110–108	W 126–121	✓correct	+3
Dec 25	vs LAL	58%	113–110	W 124–115	✓correct	+6
Dec 23	at HOU	53%	110–109	W 112–106	✓correct	+5
Dec 21	at MIN	47%	113–114	W 104–99	✗missed	+6
Dec 19	at MIN	55%	117–115	L 106–116	✗missed	−12
Dec 17	at CLE	32%	108–115	L 99–100	✓correct	+6
Dec 16	vs POR	58%	115–112	W 130–110	✓correct	+17
Dec 14	vs CLE	42%	107–110	L 90–105	✓correct	−12
Dec 12	vs OKC	60%	117–113	W 121–114	✓correct	+3
Dec 10	at CHI	53%	115–114	L 115–144	✗missed	−30
Dec 9	vs MIL	53%	113–112	L 105–106	✗missed	−2
Dec 6	at DEN	47%	108–109	W 116–115	✗missed	+2
Dec 5	vs PHX	40%	110–114	W 130–111	✗missed	+23
Dec 3	at NYK	53%	113–112	W 121–100	✓correct	+20
Dec 1	at DET	68%	116–109	L 125–131	✗missed	−13
Nov 29	vs GSW	40%	110–114	W 116–113	✗missed	+7
Nov 27	at MIL	47%	108–109	L 115–124	✓correct	−8
Nov 26	at TOR	53%	107–106	L 100–105	✗missed	−6
Nov 23	at BOS	40%	111–115	L 112–125	✓correct	−9
Nov 20	vs DEN	63%	110–105	L 97–98	✗missed	−6
Nov 18	vs DEN	65%	110–104	W 127–99	✓correct	+22
Nov 16	vs HOU	68%	110–103	L 92–101	✗missed	−16
Nov 15	vs LAC	58%	109–106	W 103–101	✓correct	−1
Nov 12	vs POR	65%	110–104	W 117–112	✓correct	−1
Nov 10	at WAS	74%	112–102	L 105–113	✗missed	−18
Nov 9	at ORL	68%	111–104	L 87–94	✗missed	−14
Nov 7	vs BKN	74%	112–102	W 96–94	✓correct	−8
Nov 4	vs TOR	63%	109–104	W 111–110	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs UTA	63%	112–107	W 103–100	✓correct	−2
Oct 30	vs ORL	76%	114–103	W 114–105	✓correct	−2
Oct 29	vs OKC	81%	116–102	L 111–117	✗missed	−20
Oct 27	at BKN	53%	110–109	W 129–125	✓correct	+3
Oct 25	at NOP	68%	111–104	L 111–113	✗missed	−9
Oct 22	vs MEM	47%	108–109	W 137–96	✗missed	+42
Oct 19	at PHX	53%	110–109	L 105–107	✗missed	−3

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.4 to 11.9; 18th smallest of 30

−0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.3 to 1.1

14.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

56%

winner picked

359 games involving DAL

172 / 174.7

actual / expected wins

gap −2.7

0.242

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 359 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	DAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs BKN	74%	118–109	W 130–93	✓correct	+28
Nov 6	vs UTA	69%	121–114	W 112–100	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	at SAS	25%	108–117	L 111–112	✓correct	+8
Nov 2	vs SAC	74%	123–114	L 100–115	✗missed	−24
Oct 30	vs HOU	38%	112–116	W 116–111	✗missed	+9
Oct 28	vs OKC	28%	114–122	W 120–96	✗missed	+32
Oct 26	at MIA	39%	121–125	W 113–109	✗missed	+8
Oct 24	vs SAS	22%	112–123	L 106–122	✓correct	−5
Oct 23	at IND	44%	119–121	W 121–105	✗missed	+18
Oct 21	at HOU	28%	112–120	L 110–128	✓correct	−10
Apr 12	vs CHI	47%	116–117	W 149–128	✗missed	+22
Apr 10	at SAS	6%	105–129	L 120–139	✓correct	+5
Apr 8	at PHX	11%	109–127	L 107–112	✓correct	+13
Apr 7	at LAC	17%	113–127	L 103–116	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs LAL	27%	116–125	W 134–128	✗missed	+15
Apr 3	vs ORL	34%	114–120	L 127–138	✓correct	−5
Mar 31	at MIL	53%	117–116	L 99–123	✗missed	−25
Mar 30	vs MIN	34%	114–120	L 94–124	✓correct	−24
Mar 27	at POR	20%	113–125	W 100–93	✗missed	+19
Mar 25	at DEN	20%	114–126	L 135–142	✓correct	+5
Mar 23	vs GSW	42%	115–118	L 131–137	✓correct	−3
Mar 21	vs LAC	34%	116–122	L 131–138	✓correct	−1
Mar 18	vs ATL	31%	112–119	L 120–135	✓correct	−8
Mar 16	at NOP	34%	115–121	L 111–129	✓correct	−12
Mar 15	at CLE	26%	106–115	W 130–120	✗missed	+19
Mar 13	vs CLE	22%	105–116	L 105–138	✓correct	−22
Mar 12	at MEM	47%	117–118	W 120–112	✗missed	+9
Mar 10	at ATL	26%	113–122	L 112–124	✓correct	−3
Mar 8	at TOR	22%	110–121	L 92–122	✓correct	−19
Mar 6	at BOS	20%	105–117	L 100–120	✓correct	−8
Mar 5	at ORL	29%	112–120	L 114–115	✓correct	+7
Mar 3	at CHA	11%	108–126	L 90–117	✓correct	−9
Mar 1	vs OKC	14%	110–126	L 87–100	✓correct	+3
Feb 27	vs MEM	47%	118–119	L 105–124	✓correct	−18
Feb 26	vs SAC	69%	122–115	L 121–130	✗missed	−16
Feb 24	at BKN	58%	118–115	W 123–114	✓correct	+6
Feb 22	at IND	61%	119–115	W 134–130	✓correct	±0
Feb 20	at MIN	10%	109–128	L 111–122	✓correct	+8
Feb 12	at LAL	44%	116–118	L 104–124	✓correct	−18
Feb 10	at PHX	31%	113–120	L 111–120	✓correct	−2
Feb 7	at SAS	26%	113–122	L 125–138	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	vs SAS	47%	115–116	L 123–135	✓correct	−11
Feb 3	vs BOS	36%	109–114	L 100–110	✓correct	−5
Jan 31	at HOU	29%	112–120	L 107–111	✓correct	+4
Jan 29	vs CHA	44%	113–115	L 121–123	✓correct	±0
Jan 28	vs MIN	47%	116–117	L 105–118	✓correct	−12
Jan 24	vs LAL	47%	115–116	L 110–116	✓correct	−5
Jan 22	vs GSW	47%	116–117	W 123–115	✗missed	+9
Jan 19	at NYK	34%	113–119	W 114–97	✗missed	+23
Jan 17	vs UTA	64%	118–113	W 138–120	✓correct	+13
Jan 15	vs UTA	47%	113–114	W 144–122	✗missed	+23
Jan 14	vs DEN	53%	112–111	L 109–118	✗missed	−10
Jan 12	vs BKN	53%	111–110	W 113–105	✓correct	+7
Jan 10	at CHI	47%	115–116	L 107–125	✓correct	−17
Jan 8	at UTA	53%	119–118	L 114–116	✗missed	−3
Jan 6	at SAC	61%	119–115	W 100–98	✓correct	−2
Jan 3	vs HOU	36%	113–118	W 110–104	✗missed	+11
Jan 1	vs PHI	53%	118–117	L 108–123	✗missed	−16
Dec 29	at POR	47%	117–118	L 122–125	✓correct	−2
Dec 27	at SAC	64%	119–114	L 107–113	✗missed	−11
Dec 25	at GSW	34%	113–119	L 116–126	✓correct	−4
Dec 23	vs DEN	34%	115–121	W 131–130	✗missed	+7
Dec 22	at NOP	56%	120–118	L 113–119	✗missed	−8
Dec 20	at PHI	53%	115–114	L 114–121	✗missed	−8
Dec 18	vs DET	36%	115–120	W 116–114	✗missed	+7
Dec 15	at UTA	58%	120–117	L 133–140	✗missed	−10
Dec 12	vs BKN	67%	116–110	W 119–111	✓correct	+2
Dec 6	vs HOU	29%	109–117	W 122–109	✗missed	+21
Dec 5	at OKC	11%	107–125	L 111–132	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	vs MIA	39%	114–118	W 118–108	✗missed	+14
Dec 1	at DEN	17%	112–126	W 131–121	✗missed	+24
Nov 29	at LAC	36%	112–117	W 114–110	✗missed	+9
Nov 28	at LAL	24%	111–121	L 119–129	✓correct	±0
Nov 24	at MIA	26%	115–124	L 102–106	✓correct	+5
Nov 22	vs MEM	53%	115–114	L 96–102	✗missed	−7
Nov 21	vs NOP	67%	117–111	W 118–115	✓correct	−3
Nov 19	vs NYK	44%	115–117	L 111–113	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	at MIN	22%	111–122	L 96–120	✓correct	−13
Nov 16	vs POR	42%	116–119	W 138–133	✗missed	+8
Nov 14	vs LAC	56%	114–112	L 127–133	✗missed	−8
Nov 12	vs PHX	44%	115–117	L 114–123	✓correct	−7
Nov 10	vs MIL	47%	118–119	L 114–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 8	at WAS	56%	117–115	W 111–105	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	at MEM	41%	117–120	L 104–118	✓correct	−11
Nov 5	vs NOP	71%	119–111	L 99–101	✗missed	−10
Nov 3	at HOU	17%	106–120	L 102–110	✓correct	+6
Oct 29	vs IND	47%	115–116	W 107–105	✗missed	+3
Oct 27	vs OKC	24%	112–122	L 94–101	✓correct	+3
Oct 26	vs TOR	42%	118–121	W 139–129	✗missed	+13
Oct 24	vs WAS	67%	117–111	L 107–117	✗missed	−16
Oct 22	vs SAS	56%	118–116	L 92–125	✗missed	−35
Apr 13	at MEM	46%	116–117	L 97–132	✓correct	−34
Apr 11	vs TOR	67%	117–111	W 124–102	✓correct	+16
Apr 9	vs LAL	41%	114–118	L 97–112	✓correct	−11
Apr 5	at LAC	23%	110–121	L 104–135	✓correct	−20
Apr 4	at LAC	27%	111–120	L 91–114	✓correct	−14
Apr 2	vs ATL	49%	120–121	W 120–118	✗missed	+3
Mar 31	vs BKN	79%	121–109	L 109–113	✗missed	−16
Mar 29	at CHI	31%	116–123	W 120–119	✗missed	+8
Mar 27	at ORL	33%	110–116	W 101–92	✗missed	+15
Mar 25	at NYK	38%	111–115	L 113–128	✓correct	−11
Mar 24	at BKN	59%	114–110	W 120–101	✓correct	+15
Mar 21	vs DET	23%	111–123	W 123–117	✗missed	+18
Mar 19	at IND	31%	116–123	L 131–135	✓correct	+3
Mar 16	vs PHI	62%	120–116	L 125–130	✗missed	−9
Mar 14	at HOU	23%	108–119	L 96–133	✓correct	−26
Mar 12	at SAS	41%	119–122	L 116–126	✓correct	−7
Mar 10	at SAS	38%	117–121	W 133–129	✗missed	+8
Mar 9	vs PHX	46%	115–117	L 116–125	✓correct	−7
Mar 7	vs MEM	41%	115–119	L 111–122	✓correct	−7
Mar 5	at MIL	31%	111–118	L 107–137	✓correct	−23
Mar 3	vs SAC	49%	114–115	L 98–122	✓correct	−23
Mar 1	vs MIL	62%	116–112	L 117–132	✗missed	−19
Feb 27	vs CHA	77%	117–106	W 103–96	✓correct	−4
Feb 25	at LAL	29%	113–121	L 99–107	✓correct	±0
Feb 23	at GSW	38%	114–118	L 102–126	✓correct	−20
Feb 21	vs NOP	77%	125–114	W 111–103	✓correct	−3
Feb 13	vs MIA	67%	115–109	W 118–113	✓correct	−1
Feb 12	vs GSW	49%	119–120	W 111–107	✗missed	+5
Feb 10	vs SAC	62%	122–118	L 128–129	✗missed	−5
Feb 8	vs HOU	49%	114–115	W 116–105	✗missed	+12
Feb 6	at BOS	31%	110–117	W 127–120	✗missed	+14
Feb 4	at PHI	59%	117–113	L 116–118	✗missed	−6
Feb 2	at CLE	19%	111–124	L 101–144	✓correct	−30
Jan 31	at DET	46%	115–116	L 102–117	✓correct	−14
Jan 29	at NOP	59%	118–114	W 137–136	✓correct	−3
Jan 27	vs WAS	82%	122–108	W 130–108	✓correct	+8
Jan 25	vs BOS	44%	104–107	L 107–122	✓correct	−12
Jan 23	at OKC	19%	110–123	W 121–115	✗missed	+19
Jan 22	vs MIN	59%	110–107	L 114–115	✗missed	−4
Jan 20	at CHA	56%	114–111	L 105–110	✗missed	−8
Jan 17	vs OKC	32%	109–117	W 106–98	✗missed	+16
Jan 15	at NOP	54%	115–113	L 116–119	✗missed	−5
Jan 14	vs DEN	57%	114–112	L 99–118	✗missed	−21
Jan 12	vs DEN	46%	112–114	L 101–112	✓correct	−9
Jan 9	vs POR	67%	114–108	W 117–111	✓correct	±0
Jan 7	vs LAL	54%	113–112	W 118–97	✓correct	+20
Jan 6	at MEM	46%	118–119	L 104–119	✓correct	−14
Jan 3	vs CLE	34%	106–113	L 122–134	✓correct	−5
Jan 1	at HOU	38%	107–111	L 99–110	✓correct	−7
Dec 30	at SAC	36%	114–119	L 100–110	✓correct	−5
Dec 28	at POR	56%	116–113	L 122–126	✗missed	−7
Dec 27	at PHX	51%	116–115	W 98–89	✓correct	+8
Dec 25	vs MIN	75%	118–108	L 99–105	✗missed	−16
Dec 23	vs POR	85%	124–108	W 132–108	✓correct	+8
Dec 21	vs LAC	64%	118–113	W 113–97	✓correct	+11
Dec 19	vs LAC	69%	118–111	L 95–118	✗missed	−30
Dec 15	at GSW	41%	112–115	W 143–133	✗missed	+13
Dec 10	at OKC	33%	115–121	L 104–118	✓correct	−8
Dec 7	at TOR	54%	117–115	W 125–118	✓correct	+5
Dec 5	at WAS	82%	126–111	W 137–101	✓correct	+21
Dec 3	vs MEM	69%	121–114	W 121–116	✓correct	−2
Dec 1	at POR	56%	116–113	W 137–131	✓correct	+3
Nov 30	at UTA	59%	119–115	W 106–94	✓correct	+8
Nov 27	vs NYK	59%	118–115	W 129–114	✓correct	+12
Nov 25	at ATL	56%	117–114	W 129–119	✓correct	+7
Nov 24	at MIA	43%	111–113	L 118–123	✓correct	−3
Nov 22	at DEN	33%	113–119	W 123–120	✗missed	+9
Nov 19	vs NOP	82%	118–104	W 132–91	✓correct	+27
Nov 17	at OKC	19%	108–121	W 121–119	✗missed	+15
Nov 16	vs SAS	75%	119–109	W 110–93	✓correct	+7
Nov 14	at UTA	66%	119–112	L 113–115	✗missed	−9
Nov 12	at GSW	29%	111–119	L 117–120	✓correct	+5
Nov 10	at DEN	33%	110–116	L 120–122	✓correct	+4
Nov 8	vs PHX	59%	113–110	L 113–114	✗missed	−4
Nov 6	vs CHI	67%	119–113	W 119–99	✓correct	+14
Nov 4	vs IND	62%	112–108	L 127–134	✗missed	−11
Nov 3	vs ORL	69%	110–103	W 108–85	✓correct	+16
Oct 31	vs HOU	64%	114–109	L 102–108	✗missed	−11
Oct 29	at MIN	46%	105–106	W 120–114	✗missed	+7
Oct 28	vs UTA	77%	115–104	W 110–102	✓correct	−3
Oct 26	at PHX	54%	108–106	L 102–114	✗missed	−14
Oct 24	vs SAS	77%	113–102	W 120–109	✓correct	±0
Jun 17 PO	at BOS	47%	110–109	L 88–106	✗missed	−19
Jun 14 PO	vs BOS	51%	105–107	W 122–84	✗missed	+40
Jun 12 PO	vs BOS	53%	105–106	L 99–106	✓correct	−6
Jun 9 PO	at BOS	41%	106–108	L 98–105	✓correct	−5
Jun 6 PO	at BOS	34%	105–111	L 89–107	✓correct	−12
May 30 PO	at MIN	43%	107–108	W 124–103	✗missed	+22
May 28 PO	vs MIN	59%	107–105	L 100–105	✗missed	−7
May 26 PO	vs MIN	53%	107–108	W 116–107	✗missed	+10
May 24 PO	at MIN	37%	107–111	W 109–108	✗missed	+5
May 22 PO	at MIN	35%	107–112	W 108–105	✗missed	+8
May 18 PO	vs OKC	61%	104–101	W 117–116	✓correct	−2
May 15 PO	at OKC	34%	104–110	W 104–92	✗missed	+18
May 13 PO	vs OKC	57%	102–101	L 96–100	✗missed	−5
May 11 PO	vs OKC	49%	100–103	W 105–101	✗missed	+7
May 9 PO	at OKC	28%	104–113	W 119–110	✗missed	+18
May 7 PO	at OKC	28%	106–115	L 95–117	✓correct	−13
May 3 PO	vs LAC	67%	109–103	W 114–101	✓correct	+7
May 1 PO	at LAC	41%	105–107	W 123–93	✗missed	+32
Apr 28 PO	vs LAC	63%	110–106	L 111–116	✗missed	−9
Apr 26 PO	vs LAC	67%	112–106	W 101–90	✓correct	+5
Apr 23 PO	at LAC	34%	106–112	W 96–93	✗missed	+9
Apr 21 PO	at LAC	37%	108–112	L 97–109	✓correct	−8
Apr 14	at OKC	22%	107–120	L 86–135	✓correct	−36
Apr 12	vs DET	79%	118–104	L 89–107	✗missed	−32
Apr 10	at MIA	43%	107–108	W 111–92	✗missed	+20
Apr 9	at CHA	59%	117–110	W 130–104	✓correct	+19
Apr 7	vs HOU	65%	115–110	W 147–136	✓correct	+6
Apr 5	vs GSW	61%	112–109	W 108–106	✓correct	−1
Apr 4	vs ATL	65%	113–108	W 109–95	✓correct	+9
Apr 2	at GSW	37%	109–113	L 100–104	✓correct	±0
Mar 31	at HOU	39%	113–116	W 125–107	✗missed	+21
Mar 29	at SAC	43%	112–113	W 107–103	✗missed	+5
Mar 26	at SAC	37%	110–114	W 132–96	✗missed	+40
Mar 25	at UTA	57%	122–116	W 115–105	✓correct	+4
Mar 21	vs UTA	73%	122–112	W 113–97	✓correct	+6
Mar 19	at SAS	53%	116–112	W 113–107	✓correct	+2
Mar 17	vs DEN	49%	115–118	W 107–105	✗missed	+5
Mar 14	at OKC	25%	111–122	L 119–126	✓correct	+4
Mar 13	vs GSW	61%	120–117	W 109–99	✓correct	+7
Mar 11	at CHI	47%	116–115	W 127–92	✓correct	+34
Mar 9	at DET	55%	120–115	W 142–124	✓correct	+13
Mar 7	vs MIA	61%	117–114	W 114–108	✓correct	+3
Mar 5	vs IND	59%	119–117	L 120–137	✗missed	−19
Mar 3	vs PHI	65%	119–114	L 116–120	✗missed	−9
Mar 1	at BOS	35%	112–117	L 110–138	✓correct	−23
Feb 28	at TOR	49%	120–118	W 136–125	✓correct	+9
Feb 27	at CLE	37%	112–116	L 119–121	✓correct	+2
Feb 25	at IND	41%	116–118	L 111–133	✓correct	−20
Feb 22	vs PHX	61%	119–116	W 123–113	✓correct	+7
Feb 14	vs SAS	73%	121–111	W 116–93	✓correct	+13
Feb 12	vs WAS	70%	122–114	W 112–104	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	vs OKC	53%	115–116	W 146–111	✗missed	+36
Feb 8	at NYK	39%	111–114	W 122–108	✗missed	+17
Feb 6	at BKN	34%	114–120	W 119–107	✗missed	+18
Feb 5	at PHI	35%	115–120	W 118–102	✗missed	+21
Feb 3	vs MIL	43%	118–124	L 117–129	✓correct	−6
Jan 31	at MIN	22%	108–121	L 87–121	✓correct	−21
Jan 29	vs ORL	53%	112–113	W 131–129	✗missed	+3
Jan 27	vs SAC	47%	118–122	L 115–120	✓correct	−1
Jan 26	at ATL	39%	115–118	W 148–143	✗missed	+8
Jan 24	vs PHX	53%	115–116	L 109–132	✓correct	−22
Jan 22	vs BOS	57%	120–119	L 110–119	✗missed	−10
Jan 17	at LAL	41%	116–118	L 110–127	✓correct	−15
Jan 15	vs NOP	41%	111–118	W 125–120	✗missed	+12
Jan 13	vs NOP	57%	114–113	L 108–118	✗missed	−11
Jan 11	vs NYK	51%	117–119	W 128–124	✗missed	+6
Jan 9	vs MEM	70%	120–112	L 103–120	✗missed	−25
Jan 7	vs MIN	59%	116–114	W 115–108	✓correct	+5
Jan 5	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 139–103	✓correct	+29
Jan 3	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 126–97	✓correct	+22
Jan 1	at UTA	47%	118–117	L 90–127	✗missed	−38
Dec 30	at GSW	37%	115–119	W 132–122	✗missed	+14
Dec 28	at MIN	25%	110–121	L 110–118	✓correct	+3
Dec 27	vs CLE	65%	119–114	L 110–113	✗missed	−8
Dec 25	at PHX	39%	115–118	W 128–114	✗missed	+17
Dec 23	vs SAS	70%	120–112	W 144–119	✓correct	+17
Dec 22	at HOU	28%	113–122	L 96–122	✓correct	−17
Dec 20	vs LAC	47%	113–117	L 111–120	✓correct	−5
Dec 18	at DEN	34%	111–117	L 104–130	✓correct	−20
Dec 16	at POR	49%	113–111	W 131–120	✓correct	+9
Dec 14	vs MIN	53%	112–113	L 101–119	✓correct	−17
Dec 12	vs LAL	57%	116–115	W 127–125	✓correct	+1
Dec 11	at MEM	43%	110–111	W 120–113	✗missed	+8
Dec 8	at POR	57%	115–109	W 125–112	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	vs UTA	73%	121–111	W 147–97	✓correct	+40
Dec 2	vs OKC	53%	114–115	L 120–126	✓correct	−5
Dec 1	vs MEM	65%	117–112	L 94–108	✗missed	−19
Nov 28	vs HOU	49%	110–113	W 121–115	✗missed	+9
Nov 25	at LAC	39%	114–117	L 88–107	✓correct	−16
Nov 22	at LAL	37%	113–117	W 104–101	✗missed	+7
Nov 19	vs SAC	63%	120–116	L 113–129	✗missed	−20
Nov 18	at MIL	41%	115–117	L 125–132	✓correct	−5
Nov 15	at WAS	57%	118–112	W 130–117	✓correct	+7
Nov 14	at NOP	53%	117–113	L 110–131	✗missed	−25
Nov 12	at NOP	43%	114–115	W 136–124	✗missed	+13
Nov 10	vs LAC	61%	118–115	W 144–126	✓correct	+15
Nov 8	vs TOR	61%	116–113	L 116–127	✗missed	−14
Nov 6	at ORL	37%	113–117	W 117–102	✗missed	+19
Nov 5	vs CHA	72%	120–111	W 124–118	✓correct	−3
Nov 3	at DEN	35%	109–114	L 114–125	✓correct	−6
Nov 1	vs CHI	63%	117–113	W 114–105	✓correct	+5
Oct 30	at MEM	35%	113–118	W 125–110	✗missed	+20
Oct 27	vs BKN	51%	112–114	W 125–120	✗missed	+7
Oct 25	at SAS	57%	123–117	W 126–119	✓correct	+1
Apr 9	vs SAS	74%	124–114	L 117–138	✗missed	−31
Apr 7	vs CHI	40%	109–113	L 112–115	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs SAC	53%	120–119	W 123–119	✓correct	+3
Apr 2	at ATL	53%	121–120	L 130–132	✗missed	−3
Apr 1	at MIA	60%	114–110	L 122–129	✗missed	−11
Mar 29	at PHI	30%	106–114	L 108–116	✓correct	±0
Mar 27	at IND	55%	120–118	W 127–104	✓correct	+21
Mar 26	at CHA	74%	118–108	L 104–110	✗missed	−16
Mar 24	vs CHA	78%	120–108	L 109–117	✗missed	−20
Mar 22	vs GSW	53%	118–117	L 125–127	✗missed	−3
Mar 20	at MEM	28%	107–116	L 108–112	✓correct	+5
Mar 17	at LAL	35%	113–119	W 111–110	✗missed	+7
Mar 15	at SAS	78%	125–113	W 137–128	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	vs MEM	55%	119–117	L 88–104	✗missed	−18
Mar 11	at MEM	22%	109–121	L 108–112	✓correct	+8
Mar 8	at NOP	55%	117–115	L 106–113	✗missed	−9
Mar 7	vs UTA	55%	119–117	W 120–116	✓correct	+2
Mar 5	vs PHX	45%	113–115	L 126–130	✓correct	−2
Mar 2	vs PHI	53%	111–110	W 133–126	✓correct	+6
Feb 28	vs IND	68%	121–114	L 122–124	✗missed	−9
Feb 26	vs LAL	60%	119–115	L 108–111	✗missed	−7
Feb 23	vs SAS	83%	122–107	W 142–116	✓correct	+11
Feb 15	at DEN	32%	110–117	L 109–118	✓correct	−2
Feb 13	vs MIN	47%	115–116	L 121–124	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	at SAC	53%	114–113	L 128–133	✗missed	−6
Feb 10	at SAC	35%	108–114	W 122–114	✗missed	+14
Feb 8	at LAC	42%	107–110	W 110–104	✗missed	+9
Feb 6	at UTA	30%	110–118	W 124–111	✗missed	+21
Feb 4	at GSW	35%	113–119	L 113–119	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	vs NOP	55%	112–110	W 111–106	✓correct	+3
Jan 30	vs DET	74%	120–110	W 111–105	✓correct	−4
Jan 28	at UTA	37%	112–117	L 100–108	✓correct	−3
Jan 26	at PHX	35%	111–117	W 99–95	✗missed	+10
Jan 24	vs WAS	47%	113–114	L 126–127	✓correct	±0
Jan 22	vs LAC	65%	115–109	L 98–112	✗missed	−20
Jan 20	vs MIA	45%	109–111	W 115–90	✗missed	+27
Jan 18	vs ATL	47%	115–116	L 122–130	✓correct	−7
Jan 15	at POR	63%	118–113	L 123–140	✗missed	−22
Jan 14	at POR	65%	118–112	L 119–136	✗missed	−23
Jan 12	at LAL	42%	115–118	W 119–115	✗missed	+7
Jan 10	at LAC	58%	115–112	L 101–113	✗missed	−15
Jan 8	at OKC	53%	116–115	L 109–120	✗missed	−12
Jan 7	vs NOP	53%	112–111	W 127–117	✓correct	+9
Jan 5	vs BOS	53%	114–113	L 95–124	✗missed	−30
Jan 2	at HOU	63%	115–110	W 111–106	✓correct	±0
Dec 31	at SAS	65%	117–111	W 126–125	✓correct	−5
Dec 29	vs HOU	76%	114–103	W 129–114	✓correct	+4
Dec 27	vs NYK	55%	110–108	W 126–121	✓correct	+3
Dec 25	vs LAL	58%	113–110	W 124–115	✓correct	+6
Dec 23	at HOU	53%	110–109	W 112–106	✓correct	+5
Dec 21	at MIN	47%	113–114	W 104–99	✗missed	+6
Dec 19	at MIN	55%	117–115	L 106–116	✗missed	−12
Dec 17	at CLE	32%	108–115	L 99–100	✓correct	+6
Dec 16	vs POR	58%	115–112	W 130–110	✓correct	+17
Dec 14	vs CLE	42%	107–110	L 90–105	✓correct	−12
Dec 12	vs OKC	60%	117–113	W 121–114	✓correct	+3
Dec 10	at CHI	53%	115–114	L 115–144	✗missed	−30
Dec 9	vs MIL	53%	113–112	L 105–106	✗missed	−2
Dec 6	at DEN	47%	108–109	W 116–115	✗missed	+2
Dec 5	vs PHX	40%	110–114	W 130–111	✗missed	+23
Dec 3	at NYK	53%	113–112	W 121–100	✓correct	+20
Dec 1	at DET	68%	116–109	L 125–131	✗missed	−13
Nov 29	vs GSW	40%	110–114	W 116–113	✗missed	+7
Nov 27	at MIL	47%	108–109	L 115–124	✓correct	−8
Nov 26	at TOR	53%	107–106	L 100–105	✗missed	−6
Nov 23	at BOS	40%	111–115	L 112–125	✓correct	−9
Nov 20	vs DEN	63%	110–105	L 97–98	✗missed	−6
Nov 18	vs DEN	65%	110–104	W 127–99	✓correct	+22
Nov 16	vs HOU	68%	110–103	L 92–101	✗missed	−16
Nov 15	vs LAC	58%	109–106	W 103–101	✓correct	−1
Nov 12	vs POR	65%	110–104	W 117–112	✓correct	−1
Nov 10	at WAS	74%	112–102	L 105–113	✗missed	−18
Nov 9	at ORL	68%	111–104	L 87–94	✗missed	−14
Nov 7	vs BKN	74%	112–102	W 96–94	✓correct	−8
Nov 4	vs TOR	63%	109–104	W 111–110	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs UTA	63%	112–107	W 103–100	✓correct	−2
Oct 30	vs ORL	76%	114–103	W 114–105	✓correct	−2
Oct 29	vs OKC	81%	116–102	L 111–117	✗missed	−20
Oct 27	at BKN	53%	110–109	W 129–125	✓correct	+3
Oct 25	at NOP	68%	111–104	L 111–113	✗missed	−9
Oct 22	vs MEM	47%	108–109	W 137–96	✗missed	+42
Oct 19	at PHX	53%	110–109	L 105–107	✗missed	−3

Surprise games

All DAL surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected DAL wins

17%DAL beat DEN131–121Dec 1, 2025-26 · forecast DEN126–112 · missed margin by 24
19%DAL beat OKC121–115Jan 23, 2024-25 · forecast OKC123–110 · missed margin by 19
19%DAL beat OKC121–119Nov 17, 2024-25 · forecast OKC121–108 · missed margin by 15
20%DAL beat POR100–93Mar 27, 2025-26 · forecast POR125–113 · missed margin by 19
23%DAL beat DET123–117Mar 21, 2024-25 · forecast DET123–111 · missed margin by 18

Most unexpected DAL losses

19%OKC beat DAL117–111Oct 29, 2022-23 · forecast DAL116–102 · missed margin by 20
21%DET beat DAL107–89Apr 12, 2023-24 · forecast DAL118–104 · missed margin by 32
21%BKN beat DAL113–109Mar 31, 2024-25 · forecast DAL121–109 · missed margin by 16
22%CHA beat DAL117–109Mar 24, 2022-23 · forecast DAL120–108 · missed margin by 20
25%MIN beat DAL105–99Dec 25, 2024-25 · forecast DAL118–108 · missed margin by 16

Largest margin misses

47%DAL beat MEM137–96Oct 22, 2022-23 · forecast MEM109–108 · missed margin by 42
51%DAL beat BOS122–84Jun 14, 2023-24 · playoffs · forecast BOS107–105 · missed margin by 40
37%DAL beat SAC132–96Mar 26, 2023-24 · forecast SAC114–110 · missed margin by 40
73%DAL beat UTA147–97Dec 6, 2023-24 · forecast DAL121–111 · missed margin by 40
53%UTA beat DAL127–90Jan 1, 2023-24 · forecast DAL118–117 · missed margin by 38

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected DAL wins

Most unexpected DAL losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions