The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 29

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

OKC 0–3@GSW 2–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: OKC 71 percent, GSW 29 percent. OKC Thunder 71% proj. 117 · final 109 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 29% proj. 108 · final 116
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 117 109 −8
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 108 116 +8

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputOKCGSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 17461477
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −199
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +11.7+0.1
Games played this season 4646
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 121.0113.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.3116.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.03.5
Rest days 31
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1746GSW1477

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1746

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
  2. First 36 games: +130.9
  3. Last 10 games: −2.7
  • L@CLE122–129−8.2
  • W@NYK126–101+15.2
  • W@WAS136–95+3.1
  • W@PHI118–102+4.8
  • WCLE134–114+8.5
  • L@DAL98–106−14.7
  • WBKN127–101+1.7
  • WUTA123–114+1.1
  • LDAL115–121−16.8
  • W@POR118–108+2.6

GSW1477

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
  2. First 36 games: −94.2
  3. Last 10 games: −18.8
  • W@DET107–104+6.4
  • L@IND96–108−6.8
  • L@TOR101–104−8.0
  • W@MIN116–115+6.6
  • WWAS122–114+1.9
  • LBOS85–125−20.3
  • L@SAC117–123−4.0
  • WCHI131–106+11.9
  • LLAL108–118−11.9
  • WUTA114–103+5.4
Season scoring marginOKC+11.7GSW+0.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+11.7

Scores 116.1, allows 104.5 over 46 games: +11.7 a game.

GSW+0.1

Scores 111.3, allows 111.3 over 46 games: +0.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10OKC121.0GSW113.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

OKC121.0scored, +8.2 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.5%54.1%+5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.3%+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.9%24.9%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.193−0.1
Everything else±0.0

GSW113.6scored, +0.8 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.1%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.3%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.0%24.9%+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1490.193−1.2
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10OKC108.3GSW116.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

OKC108.3allowed, −4.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.1%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)15.3%12.3%+4.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%24.9%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2440.193−1.5
Everything else−0.2

GSW116.5allowed, +3.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.4%54.1%−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.3%−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.6%24.9%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.193−0.1
Everything else−0.2
Pace, last 10average 98.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 100.7 and GSW 96.3 → average 98.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingOKC0.0GSW3.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-29 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

GSW3.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Draymond Green3.517.52

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-29 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestOKC3 daysGSW1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC3days

Last played Jan 26 against POR.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 28 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 26@POR118–10842-8910-3024-29714125.5113.794.5
Jan 23DAL115–12142-8815-3716-22128112.7118.6102.0
Jan 22UTA123–11444-9512-3923-251013118.3110.7103.5
Jan 19BKN127–10148-8719-4312-13115129.6103.198.0
Jan 17@DAL98–10635-9120-468-121514102.1111.695.5
Jan 16CLE134–11453-10518-5310-1167127.6106.5106.0
Jan 14@PHI118–10245-8112-3616-181710120.4103.098.5
Jan 12@WAS136–9545-9513-3533-351315128.389.6106.0
Jan 10@NYK126–10148-8914-2716-18158123.599.0102.0
Jan 8@CLE122–12948-9011-3115-17139122.0127.7100.5

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 28UTA114–10336-9217-4925-31916117.5108.496.0
Jan 25LAL108–11841-8916-4610-161111112.5121.696.5
Jan 23CHI131–10646-10225-5714-141015131.0108.299.0
Jan 22@SAC117–12343-9222-489-131912118.2121.8100.0
Jan 20BOS85–12532-9214-537-11121089.5130.295.5
Jan 18WAS122–11445-9614-4118-24917123.2117.598.0
Jan 15@MIN116–11540-8218-3618-211214127.5127.890.5
Jan 13@TOR101–10435-8816-4615-221414107.4110.694.0
Jan 10@IND96–10838-9110-3810-13131199.0110.297.5
Jan 9@DET107–10441-8915-4610-161515110.3108.396.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
29%
pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner
the forecast favored OKC
16 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual +7 for GSW
73rd
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
293rd
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.23 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statOKCGSW
Final score109116
Field goals40–99 · 40.4%40–81 · 49.4%
Three-pointers9–39 · 23.1%13–38 · 34.2%
Free throws20–25 · 80.0%23–28 · 82.1%
Rebounds5042
Assists2130
Turnovers1115
Steals86
Blocks37

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)−9+7+16
Total points225225±0
OKC points117109−8
GSW points108116+8

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
OKC34242625–109
GSW20283632–116

Recent form before this game

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Jan 26 at POR W 118–108
Jan 23 vs DAL L 115–121
Jan 22 vs UTA W 123–114
Jan 19 vs BKN W 127–101
Jan 17 at DAL L 98–106

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Jan 28 vs UTA W 114–103
Jan 25 vs LAL L 108–118
Jan 23 vs CHI W 131–106
Jan 22 at SAC L 117–123
Jan 20 vs BOS L 85–125

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 27 2024-25 OKC at GSW OKC 105 – 101 GSW
Nov 10 2024-25 GSW at OKC GSW 127 – 116 OKC
Dec 8 2023-24 GSW at OKC GSW 136 – 138 OKC
Nov 18 2023-24 OKC at GSW OKC 130 – 123 GSW
Nov 16 2023-24 OKC at GSW OKC 128 – 109 GSW