2023-24 · Regular Season · Final
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, March 27, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
HOU 1–1@OKC 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Houston Rockets | 108 | 132 | +24 |
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) | 116 | 126 | +10 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | HOU | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1532 | 1622 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +160 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +1.8 | +7.4 |
| Games played this season | 71 | 71 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 123.0 | 116.0 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 110.8 | 110.8 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.8 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 32.0 | 26.8 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingHOU1532OKC1622
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
HOU1532
- Ended last season at 1333 → started this one at 1374
- First 61 games: +84.5
- Last 10 games: +73.4
- LLAC116–122−5.8
- W@POR123–107+12.0
- W@SAC112–104+14.6
- W@SAS103–101+4.0
- WWAS135–119+4.1
- WCLE117–103+14.8
- W@WAS137–114+9.1
- WCHI127–117+6.8
- WUTA147–119+9.6
- WPOR110–92+4.2
OKC1622
- Ended last season at 1513 → started this one at 1510
- First 61 games: +104.8
- Last 10 games: +7.6
- W@POR128–120+3.8
- WMIA107–100+5.1
- WMEM124–93+4.4
- LIND111–121−17.1
- WDAL126–119+5.1
- W@MEM118–112+3.1
- WUTA119–107+3.3
- W@TOR123–103+6.6
- L@MIL93–118−18.1
- W@NOP119–112+11.4
Season scoring marginHOU+1.8OKC+7.4
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
HOU+1.8
Scores 114.2, allows 112.4 over 71 games: +1.8 a game.
OKC+7.4
Scores 120.3, allows 112.9 over 71 games: +7.4 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10HOU123.0OKC116.0
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).
HOU123.0scored, +8.2 vs league
| Factor | HOU | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.3% | 54.8% | +3.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.3% | 11.5% | +3.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.1% | 24.2% | +1.8 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.201 | 0.196 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.8 |
OKC116.0scored, +1.2 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.9% | 54.8% | +3.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 11.5% | +0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.6% | 24.2% | +0.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.190 | 0.196 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | −2.7 |
Defensive rating, last 10HOU110.8OKC110.8
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).
HOU110.8allowed, −4.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.3% | 54.8% | +3.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.5% | 11.5% | −0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.2% | 24.2% | +0.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.206 | 0.196 | −0.3 | |
| Everything else | +0.2 |
OKC110.8allowed, −4.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.7% | 54.8% | −1.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.9% | 11.5% | +3.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 18.4% | 24.2% | +2.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.204 | 0.196 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
Pace, last 10average 99.8
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
HOU 99.5 and OKC 100.2 → average 99.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.3)
Rotation points missingHOU32.0OKC26.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
HOU32.0pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun | 18.7 | 34.4 | 3 |
| Cam Whitmore | 13.3 | 22.4 | 3 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-03-27 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
OKC26.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 26.8 | 34.3 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-03-27 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
RestHOU2 daysOKC1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
HOU2days
Last played Mar 25 against POR.
OKC1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 26 against NOP.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
HOU
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | POR | 110–92 | 37-93 | 12-39 | 24-25 | 8 | 12 | 112.2 | 92.9 | 98.5 |
| Mar 23 | UTA | 147–119 | 54-97 | 27-49 | 12-14 | 9 | 10 | 147.0 | 119.0 | 100.0 |
| Mar 21 | CHI | 127–117 | 47-93 | 17-45 | 16-20 | 14 | 12 | 124.5 | 114.7 | 102.0 |
| Mar 19 | @WAS | 137–114 | 47-91 | 13-39 | 30-36 | 7 | 12 | 137.0 | 116.3 | 99.0 |
| Mar 16 | CLE | 117–103 | 47-98 | 15-42 | 8-12 | 9 | 11 | 115.8 | 103.0 | 100.5 |
| Mar 14 | WAS | 135–119 | 51-87 | 12-28 | 21-24 | 17 | 8 | 123.9 | 110.2 | 108.5 |
| Mar 12 | @SAS | 103–101 | 37-80 | 10-32 | 19-21 | 12 | 8 | 110.8 | 108.6 | 93.0 |
| Mar 10 | @SAC | 112–104 | 39-84 | 12-29 | 22-27 | 12 | 6 | 109.8 | 103.0 | 101.5 |
| Mar 8 | @POR | 123–107 | 45-94 | 14-37 | 19-26 | 7 | 13 | 125.5 | 110.3 | 97.5 |
| Mar 6 | LAC | 116–122 | 45-94 | 16-37 | 10-17 | 8 | 13 | 123.4 | 129.8 | 94.0 |
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | @NOP | 119–112 | 46-86 | 15-34 | 12-14 | 12 | 7 | 119.0 | 113.1 | 99.5 |
| Mar 24 | @MIL | 93–118 | 33-89 | 10-43 | 17-22 | 12 | 9 | 93.0 | 121.6 | 98.5 |
| Mar 22 | @TOR | 123–103 | 48-95 | 12-32 | 15-19 | 15 | 12 | 117.1 | 99.0 | 104.5 |
| Mar 20 | UTA | 119–107 | 43-88 | 10-34 | 23-29 | 10 | 10 | 119.0 | 105.9 | 100.5 |
| Mar 16 | @MEM | 118–112 | 45-87 | 12-35 | 16-21 | 11 | 8 | 119.2 | 113.1 | 99.0 |
| Mar 14 | DAL | 126–119 | 45-86 | 16-39 | 20-23 | 13 | 8 | 124.8 | 119.0 | 100.5 |
| Mar 12 | IND | 111–121 | 43-99 | 14-37 | 11-15 | 12 | 12 | 106.7 | 116.3 | 104.0 |
| Mar 10 | MEM | 124–93 | 49-93 | 21-47 | 5-5 | 10 | 8 | 126.5 | 96.9 | 97.0 |
| Mar 8 | MIA | 107–100 | 42-89 | 12-38 | 11-13 | 9 | 9 | 111.5 | 106.4 | 95.0 |
| Mar 6 | @POR | 128–120 | 43-74 | 9-22 | 33-39 | 18 | 7 | 123.1 | 116.5 | 103.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2023-24 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | HOU | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 132 | 126 |
| Field goals | 50–104 · 48.1% | 47–96 · 49.0% |
| Three-pointers | 15–43 · 34.9% | 14–38 · 36.8% |
| Free throws | 17–23 · 73.9% | 18–24 · 75.0% |
| Rebounds | 50 | 49 |
| Assists | 25 | 26 |
| Turnovers | 16 | 19 |
| Steals | 10 | 7 |
| Blocks | 3 | 7 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Oklahoma City Thunder
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (OKC) | +8 | −6 | −14 |
| Total points | 224 | 258 | +34 |
| HOU points | 108 | 132 | +24 |
| OKC points | 116 | 126 | +10 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 28 | 21 | 31 | 32 | 20 | 132 |
| OKC | 17 | 33 | 35 | 27 | 14 | 126 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27 2023-24 | HOU at OKC | HOU 95 – 112 OKC |
| Feb 25 2023-24 | OKC at HOU | OKC 123 – 110 HOU |
| Dec 6 2023-24 | OKC at HOU | OKC 101 – 110 HOU |
| Feb 15 2022-23 | HOU at OKC | HOU 96 – 133 OKC |
| Feb 4 2022-23 | HOU at OKC | HOU 121 – 153 OKC |