The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 14

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

Sunday, April 14, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DAL 4–3@OKC 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DAL 22 percent, OKC 78 percent. DAL Mavericks 22% proj. 107 · final 86 OKC Thunder · home 78% proj. 120 · final 135
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DAL Dallas Mavericks 107 86 −21
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) 120 135 +15

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDALOKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16121621
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +79
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.8+6.9
Games played this season 8181
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.3115.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 104.4112.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 108.30.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1612OKC1621

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1612

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
  2. First 71 games: +124.4
  3. Last 10 games: +35.0
  • W@SAC132–96+30.5
  • W@SAC107–103+6.2
  • W@HOU125–107+15.4
  • L@GSW100–104−5.7
  • WATL109–95+5.4
  • WGSW108–106+3.4
  • WHOU147–136+4.4
  • W@CHA130–104+5.7
  • W@MIA111–92+15.2
  • LDET89–107−45.5

OKC1621

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1513 → started this one at 1510
  2. First 71 games: +112.4
  3. Last 10 games: −1.5
  • LHOU126–132−12.7
  • WPHX128–103+13.7
  • W@NYK113–112+4.4
  • L@PHI105–109−8.5
  • L@BOS100–135−9.7
  • L@IND112–126−11.6
  • W@CHA121–118+2.0
  • WSAC112–105+5.3
  • WSAS127–89+6.8
  • WMIL125–107+8.8
Season scoring marginDAL+2.8OKC+6.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL+2.8

Scores 118.2, allows 115.4 over 81 games: +2.8 a game.

OKC+6.9

Scores 119.9, allows 113.0 over 81 games: +6.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DAL115.3OKC115.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

DAL115.3scored, +0.7 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.8%54.8%+4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%11.6%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.7%24.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1700.194−0.7
Everything else−0.7

OKC115.0scored, +0.4 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.8%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%11.6%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.3%24.1%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.194+0.3
Everything else−0.7
Defensive rating, last 10DAL104.4OKC112.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

DAL104.4allowed, −10.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.8%54.8%+6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%11.6%±0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.8%24.1%+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1500.194+1.3
Everything else+0.6

OKC112.2allowed, −2.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.8%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%11.6%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%24.1%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.194+0.1
Everything else−0.6
Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 99.4 and OKC 100.7 → average 100.0 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.1)

Rotation points missingDAL108.3OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL108.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Luka Dončić32.637.58
Kyrie Irving27.638.09
P.J. Washington14.032.710
Daniel Gafford9.822.710
Derrick Jones Jr.7.423.710
Danté Exum6.022.410
Dereck Lively II6.019.73
Maxi Kleber4.918.49

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-14 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-14 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysOKC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played Apr 12 against DET.

OKC2days

Last played Apr 12 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12DET89–10736-838-299-1220989.0107.0100.0
Apr 10@MIA111–9243-8715-4410-1378122.0101.191.0
Apr 9@CHA130–10450-9317-5013-201416130.0103.0100.5
Apr 7HOU147–13646-8515-3940-45176131.3120.4101.9
Apr 5GSW108–10640-8412-3416-21178105.9102.9102.5
Apr 4ATL109–9538-9418-4915-171411104.891.3104.0
Apr 2@GSW100–10439-8915-407-1115899.0103.0101.0
Mar 31@HOU125–10748-9324-475-91310127.6110.397.5
Mar 29@SAC107–10335-7415-3522-33106113.8109.694.0
Mar 26@SAC132–9651-9222-398-1395129.495.0101.5

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12MIL125–10747-8913-3818-20108123.8107.0100.5
Apr 10SAS127–8947-10116-3817-21127111.478.1114.0
Apr 9SAC112–10539-8011-3023-31136109.8102.9102.0
Apr 7@CHA121–11845-8718-3613-171610126.0121.696.5
Apr 5@IND112–12642-868-3020-24159108.7123.5102.5
Apr 3@BOS100–13535-815-2425-28135102.0137.898.0
Apr 2@PHI105–10937-8713-3918-221412106.1111.298.5
Mar 31@NYK113–11244-8213-3412-24128116.5115.597.0
Mar 29PHX128–10349-8716-3014-14106133.3107.396.0
Mar 27HOU126–13247-9614-3818-241913112.5116.8101.9

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
78%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
OKC was the forecast favorite
36 pts
margin miss
forecast +13, actual +49 for OKC
1249th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
21st
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.25 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDALOKC
Final score86135
Field goals32–97 · 33.0%54–97 · 55.7%
Three-pointers8–39 · 20.5%14–34 · 41.2%
Free throws14–17 · 82.4%13–16 · 81.3%
Rebounds4158
Assists1938
Turnovers1414
Steals86
Blocks26

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)+13+49+36
Total points227221−6
DAL points10786−21
OKC points120135+15

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DAL22191629–86
OKC39432627–135

Recent form before this game

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 vs DET L 89–107
Apr 10 at MIA W 111–92
Apr 9 at CHA W 130–104
Apr 7 vs HOU W 147–136
Apr 5 vs GSW W 108–106

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 vs MIL W 125–107
Apr 10 vs SAS W 127–89
Apr 9 vs SAC W 112–105
Apr 7 at CHA W 121–118
Apr 5 at IND L 112–126

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 14 2023-24 DAL at OKC DAL 119 – 126 OKC
Feb 10 2023-24 OKC at DAL OKC 111 – 146 DAL
Dec 2 2023-24 OKC at DAL OKC 126 – 120 DAL
Jan 8 2022-23 DAL at OKC DAL 109 – 120 OKC
Dec 12 2022-23 OKC at DAL OKC 114 – 121 DAL