The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

OKC 4–0@DAL 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: OKC 72 percent, DAL 28 percent. OKC Thunder 72% proj. 122 · final 96 DAL Mavericks · home 28% proj. 114 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 122 96 −26
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 114 120 +6

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans OKC

  • Home court+2.1 DALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+11.4 OKCElo DAL 1405, OKC 1709; season margin DAL −4.9, OKC +10.6.
  • Player availability+2.1 DALOKC without Jalen Williams (14 ppg) and Chet Holmgren (12 ppg) and 2 more; DAL without Naji Marshall (14 ppg).
  • Recent form+1.3 OKCLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DAL scores 115.9 and allows 119.1; OKC scores 110.3 and allows 109.0.

Together: OKC by 8, a 72% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

OKC is 4–0, winning by 10 a game on average (scoring 111, allowing 101). Last season they were a +11 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.7, defensive rebounding −1.3. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace are out (41 rotation points a game combined).

DAL is 2–2, losing by 4 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 116). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 11.3% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.3 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.1. Naji Marshall (14 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DAL; left favors OKC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −11.4, Player availability +2.1, Recent form −1.3, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −8.2 for DAL. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −11.4 Player availability +2.1 Recent form −1.3 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −8.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −8.2. The 72% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputOKCDALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 17091405 −2.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −234 −6.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +10.6−4.9 −2.2
Games played this season 44 +0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.3115.9 +1.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.0119.1 −2.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.7 +0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 41.313.7 +2.1
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueDAL ptsOKC ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-234.1−2.03+4.78−6.81
Elo rating (away)1709.4−1.51+0.51−2.02
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)119.1+0.28+1.90−1.62
Rotation points missing (away)41.3+0.28−1.19+1.48
Season scoring margin (home)-4.9−0.79+0.34−1.13
Season scoring margin (away)10.6−0.57+0.46−1.03
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)109.0−1.02−0.04−0.98
Rotation points missing (home)13.7+0.72+0.09+0.63
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.3−0.08−0.66+0.58
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)115.9+0.45−0.11+0.56
Elo rating (home)1405.3−0.10+0.36−0.46
Games played (home)4.0+0.24−0.09+0.33
Games played (away)4.0+0.01+0.26−0.24
Combined pace, last 10100.7+3.04+2.86+0.18
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.07+0.17
Series pressure0.0+0.05−0.00+0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.01+0.04
Rest days (home)2.0−0.00+0.02−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1709DAL14059.3 pts toward OKC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1709

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
  2. This season's 4 games: +27.2
  • W@SAS116–104+15.8
  • WDEN96–84+5.4
  • WLAC108–101+2.8
  • WPHX125–114+3.2

DAL1405

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
  2. This season's 4 games: +17.5
  • L@HOU110–128−4.9
  • W@IND121–105+17.8
  • LSAS106–122−5.7
  • W@MIA113–109+10.3
Season scoring marginOKC+10.6DAL−4.92.1 pts toward OKC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+10.6

Scores 111.2, allows 100.8 over 4 games: +10.5 a game.

20% this season (+10.5) + 80% last season (+10.7) = +10.6

DAL−4.9

Scores 112.5, allows 116.0 over 4 games: −3.5 a game.

20% this season (−3.5) + 80% last season (−5.3) = −4.9

Offensive rating, last 10OKC110.3DAL115.91.1 pts toward DAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC110.3scored, −4.2 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.5%−6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.2%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.210+0.3
Everything else−0.2

DAL115.9scored, +1.3 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210−0.1
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10OKC109.0DAL119.12.6 pts toward OKC

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC109.0allowed, −5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.5%+6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%12.2%+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.210−0.4
Everything else−1.7

DAL119.1allowed, +4.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.5%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.6%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.210−0.1
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 100.70.2 pts toward DAL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 98.7 and DAL 102.8 → average 100.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingOKC41.3DAL13.72.1 pts toward DAL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC41.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Williams13.731.63
Chet Holmgren12.029.93
Alex Caruso9.218.94
Cason Wallace6.316.33

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

DAL13.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Naji Marshall13.727.73

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestOKC2 daysDAL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC2days

Last played Oct 26 against PHX.

DAL2days

Last played Oct 26 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26PHX125–11444-8612-3225-291612127.6117.597.5
Oct 25LAC108–10142-948-2416-171615105.999.0102.0
Oct 22DEN96–8436-9511-4313-141216102.189.494.0
Oct 20@SAS116–10443-9514-3116-201110113.7102.0102.0
May 30SAS103–11137-8312-3517-221310109.6120.793.0
May 28@SAS91–11835-9410-4011-12121291.0119.299.5
May 26SAS127–11440-8314-3233-381614124.5112.9101.5
May 24@SAS82–10330-916-3316-18171180.4102.0101.5
May 22@SAS123–10839-8117-3828-33107124.2111.398.0
May 20SAS122–11345-9413-3619-24917124.5116.597.5

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@MIA113–10943-9414-4613-141613110.8105.8102.5
Oct 24SAS106–12245-8711-285-8188103.9118.4102.5
Oct 23@IND121–10544-8814-3419-231411121.0105.0100.0
Oct 21@HOU110–12841-8011-3817-26218111.1130.698.5
Apr 12CHI149–12852-10022-4923-271815134.2114.3111.5
Apr 10@SAS120–13945-9815-4015-19712121.2139.099.5
Apr 8@PHX107–11237-8913-3620-22810112.6117.995.0
Apr 7@LAC103–11635-1006-3327-2881497.2109.4106.0
Apr 5LAL134–12846-8814-3228-3678131.4124.3102.5
Apr 3ORL127–13844-9514-4225-311311115.5126.6109.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored OKC
32 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual +24 for DAL
8th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
4th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.27 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statOKCDAL
Final score96120
Field goals36–87 · 41.4%46–97 · 47.4%
Three-pointers5–32 · 15.6%16–45 · 35.6%
Free throws19–23 · 82.6%12–15 · 80.0%
Rebounds4349
Assists1730
Turnovers139
Steals44
Blocks36

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)−8+24+32
Total points236216−20
OKC points12296−26
DAL points114120+6

Recent form before this game

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs PHX W 125–114
Oct 25 vs LAC W 108–101
Oct 22 vs DEN W 96–84
Oct 20 at SAS W 116–104
May 30 vs SAS L 103–111

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at MIA W 113–109
Oct 24 vs SAS L 106–122
Oct 23 at IND W 121–105
Oct 21 at HOU L 110–128
Apr 12 vs CHI W 149–128

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 1 2025-26 OKC at DAL OKC 100 – 87 DAL
Dec 5 2025-26 DAL at OKC DAL 111 – 132 OKC
Oct 27 2025-26 OKC at DAL OKC 101 – 94 DAL
Jan 23 2024-25 DAL at OKC DAL 121 – 115 OKC
Jan 17 2024-25 OKC at DAL OKC 98 – 106 DAL