The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 22

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs

Friday, May 22, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

OKC 3–7@SAS 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: OKC 39 percent, SAS 61 percent. OKC Thunder 39% proj. 107 · final 123 SAS Spurs · home 61% proj. 111 · final 108
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 107 123 +16
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) 111 108 −3

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputOKCSAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 17571770
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +83
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +11.6+8.7
Games played this season 9196
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 123.7116.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.5103.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 1 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1757SAS1770

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1757

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1760 → started this one at 1695
  2. First 81 games: +3.8
  3. Last 10 games: +58.0
  • WPHX119–84+9.6
  • WPHX120–107+4.4
  • W@PHX121–109+7.8
  • W@PHX131–122+6.1
  • WLAL108–90+7.0
  • WLAL125–107+6.5
  • W@LAL131–108+13.9
  • W@LAL115–110+4.8
  • LSAS115–122−10.4
  • WSAS122–113+8.3

SAS1770

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
  2. First 86 games: +296.9
  3. Last 10 games: +35.3
  • W@POR114–93+9.6
  • WPOR114–95+3.9
  • LMIN102–104−9.3
  • WMIN133–95+10.3
  • W@MIN115–108+5.9
  • L@MIN109–114−9.8
  • WMIN126–97+7.9
  • W@MIN139–109+14.7
  • W@OKC122–115+10.4
  • L@OKC113–122−8.3
Season scoring marginOKC+11.6SAS+8.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+11.6

Scores 119.3, allows 107.8 over 91 games: +11.6 a game.

SAS+8.7

Scores 119.3, allows 110.6 over 96 games: +8.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10OKC123.7SAS116.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

OKC123.7scored, +9.1 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.7%54.5%+4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)9.9%12.2%+3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.5%26.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.210−0.1
Everything else+0.1

SAS116.6scored, +2.0 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2380.210+0.8
Everything else−1.6
Defensive rating, last 10OKC109.5SAS103.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

OKC109.5allowed, −5.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.5%+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)15.7%12.2%+5.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210+0.1
Everything else−0.6

SAS103.4allowed, −11.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)47.0%54.5%+11.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.2%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%26.1%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210+0.4
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 97.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 95.9 and SAS 99.9 → average 97.9 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingOKC0.0SAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-22 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-22 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestOKC2 daysSAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC2days

Last played May 20 against SAS.

SAS2days

Last played May 20 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 20SAS122–11345-9413-3619-24917124.5116.597.5
May 18SAS115–12241-10117-4516-19149102.7106.193.9
May 11@LAL115–11042-8111-3120-24116117.3112.298.0
May 9@LAL131–10853-9417-388-10912140.9117.492.5
May 7LAL125–10745-8114-3621-26129127.6111.597.0
May 5LAL108–9042-8513-3011-12149116.195.793.5
Apr 27@PHX131–12244-8217-3426-301613136.5125.896.5
Apr 25@PHX121–10945-9112-3719-2178122.2111.298.5
Apr 22PHX120–10743-9114-4020-251012120.0108.199.5
Apr 19PHX119–8442-9314-4621-23619129.390.392.5

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 20@OKC113–12241-8416-4015-172116116.5124.597.5
May 18@OKC122–11541-9613-4327-292115106.1102.793.9
May 15@MIN139–10949-8818-3823-271512133.7103.8104.5
May 12MIN126–9747-8911-3221-271511122.394.2103.0
May 10@MIN109–11441-866-2621-271413107.9115.2100.0
May 8@MIN115–10839-8512-3325-3398113.9106.9101.0
May 6MIN133–9545-9016-3927-331513122.086.4109.5
May 4MIN102–10439-8710-3614-181313106.3108.396.0
Apr 28POR114–9541-7512-3020-29147121.399.095.0
Apr 26@POR114–9343-8714-3314-17129116.393.099.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
the forecast favored SAS
19 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −15 for SAS
174th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
229th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statOKCSAS
Final score123108
Field goals39–81 · 48.1%34–80 · 42.5%
Three-pointers17–38 · 44.7%13–41 · 31.7%
Free throws28–33 · 84.8%27–33 · 81.8%
Rebounds4137
Assists2926
Turnovers1015
Steals78
Blocks26

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)+4−15−19
Total points218231+13
OKC points107123+16
SAS points111108−3

Recent form before this game

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
May 20 vs SAS W 122–113
May 18 vs SAS L 115–122
May 11 at LAL W 115–110
May 9 at LAL W 131–108
May 7 vs LAL W 125–107

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
May 20 at OKC L 113–122
May 18 at OKC W 122–115
May 15 at MIN W 139–109
May 12 vs MIN W 126–97
May 10 at MIN L 109–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
May 20 2025-26 SAS at OKC SAS 113 – 122 OKC
May 18 2025-26 SAS at OKC SAS 122 – 115 OKC
Feb 4 2025-26 OKC at SAS OKC 106 – 116 SAS
Jan 13 2025-26 SAS at OKC SAS 98 – 119 OKC
Dec 25 2025-26 SAS at OKC SAS 117 – 102 OKC