Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Orlando Magic ORL

2–7

2026-27 record

1484

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

107.2

Offensive rating

last 10 games

117.1

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

98.0

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded ORL game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 224 of 353 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of ORL's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. ORL ranks 18 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 10:00 PM ET

ORL Orlando Magic 2–7 –

@SAC Sacramento Kings 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 9:00 PM ET

ORL Orlando Magic 2–7 –

@UTA Utah Jazz 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 7:00 PM ET

MIL Milwaukee Bucks 1–9 –

@ORL Orlando Magic 2–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked ORL games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 9 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

13.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.7 to 18.2

−4.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -13.0 to 3.6

15.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

44%

winner picked

9 games involving ORL

2 / 3.4

actual / expected wins

gap −1.4

0.284

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 9 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ORL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at GSW	20%	107–119	L 119–126	✓correct	+5
Nov 5	at PHX	36%	112–117	L 104–117	✓correct	−8
Nov 2	vs WAS	62%	111–107	L 94–103	✗missed	−13
Nov 1	vs BOS	28%	105–113	L 97–108	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	at TOR	26%	106–115	W 121–114	✗missed	+16
Oct 28	at TOR	33%	107–113	L 99–129	✓correct	−24
Oct 25	at NYK	22%	103–114	W 111–102	✗missed	+20
Oct 23	vs MIN	59%	115–112	L 93–115	✗missed	−25
Oct 21	vs ATL	56%	113–111	L 125–132	✗missed	−9

2025-26

10.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.2 to 12.4; 11th smallest of 30

−0.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.0 to 2.2

14.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

65%

winner picked

86 games involving ORL

47 / 44.8

actual / expected wins

gap +2.2

0.213

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 86 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ORL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 3 PO	at DET	22%	99–110	L 94–116	✓correct	−11
May 1 PO	vs DET	63%	114–109	L 79–93	✗missed	−19
Apr 29 PO	at DET	24%	103–113	L 109–116	✓correct	+3
Apr 27 PO	vs DET	55%	111–109	W 94–88	✓correct	+4
Apr 25 PO	vs DET	45%	110–112	W 113–105	✗missed	+10
Apr 22 PO	at DET	24%	105–115	L 83–98	✓correct	−5
Apr 19 PO	at DET	17%	103–117	W 112–101	✗missed	+25
Apr 12	at BOS	36%	110–115	L 108–113	✓correct	±0
Apr 10	at CHI	78%	124–113	W 127–103	✓correct	+13
Apr 8	vs MIN	69%	120–113	W 132–120	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	vs DET	39%	113–117	W 123–107	✗missed	+20
Apr 5	at NOP	69%	118–111	W 112–108	✓correct	−3
Apr 3	at DAL	66%	120–114	W 138–127	✓correct	+5
Apr 1	vs ATL	39%	116–120	L 101–130	✓correct	−25
Mar 31	vs PHX	53%	117–116	W 115–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 29	at TOR	47%	116–117	L 87–139	✓correct	−51
Mar 26	vs SAC	82%	125–112	W 121–117	✓correct	−9
Mar 24	at CLE	39%	114–118	L 131–136	✓correct	−1
Mar 23	vs IND	82%	122–109	L 126–128	✗missed	−15
Mar 21	vs LAL	56%	118–116	L 104–105	✗missed	−3
Mar 19	at CHA	41%	112–115	L 111–130	✓correct	−16
Mar 17	vs OKC	44%	112–114	L 108–113	✓correct	−3
Mar 16	at ATL	41%	114–117	L 112–124	✓correct	−9
Mar 14	at MIA	41%	115–118	W 121–117	✗missed	+7
Mar 12	vs WAS	82%	122–109	W 136–131	✓correct	−8
Mar 11	vs CLE	47%	108–109	W 128–122	✗missed	+7
Mar 8	at MIL	69%	113–106	W 130–91	✓correct	+32
Mar 7	at MIN	39%	111–115	W 119–92	✗missed	+31
Mar 5	vs DAL	71%	120–112	W 115–114	✓correct	−7
Mar 3	vs WAS	86%	122–106	W 126–109	✓correct	+1
Mar 1	vs DET	34%	108–114	L 92–106	✓correct	−8
Feb 26	vs HOU	44%	107–109	L 108–113	✓correct	−3
Feb 24	at LAL	47%	114–115	W 110–109	✗missed	+2
Feb 22	at LAC	47%	113–114	W 111–109	✗missed	+3
Feb 21	at PHX	53%	114–113	L 110–113	✗missed	−4
Feb 19	at SAC	69%	115–108	W 131–94	✓correct	+30
Feb 11	vs MIL	67%	117–111	L 108–116	✗missed	−14
Feb 9	vs MIL	59%	116–113	W 118–99	✓correct	+16
Feb 7	vs UTA	71%	122–114	W 120–117	✓correct	−5
Feb 5	vs BKN	71%	114–106	W 118–98	✓correct	+12
Feb 3	at OKC	20%	108–120	L 92–128	✓correct	−24
Feb 1	at SAS	34%	110–116	L 103–112	✓correct	−3
Jan 30	vs TOR	42%	111–114	W 130–120	✗missed	+13
Jan 28	at MIA	41%	116–119	W 133–124	✗missed	+12
Jan 26	at CLE	41%	116–119	L 98–114	✓correct	−13
Jan 24	vs CLE	53%	118–117	L 105–119	✗missed	−15
Jan 22	vs CHA	42%	110–113	L 97–124	✓correct	−24
Jan 11	vs NOP	76%	122–112	W 128–118	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	vs PHI	56%	118–116	L 91–103	✗missed	−14
Jan 7	at BKN	44%	111–113	W 104–103	✗missed	+3
Jan 6	at WAS	71%	121–113	L 112–120	✗missed	−16
Jan 4	vs IND	78%	123–112	W 135–127	✓correct	−3
Jan 2	at CHI	58%	119–116	L 114–121	✗missed	−10
Dec 31	at IND	64%	118–113	W 112–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	at TOR	41%	110–113	L 106–107	✓correct	+2
Dec 27	vs DEN	36%	113–118	W 127–126	✗missed	+6
Dec 26	vs CHA	64%	119–114	L 105–120	✗missed	−20
Dec 23	at POR	58%	118–115	W 110–106	✓correct	+1
Dec 22	at GSW	34%	112–118	L 97–120	✓correct	−17
Dec 20	at UTA	64%	123–118	W 128–127	✓correct	−4
Dec 18	at DEN	26%	116–125	L 115–126	✓correct	−2
Dec 9	vs MIA	67%	122–116	W 117–108	✓correct	+3
Dec 7	at NYK	44%	116–118	L 100–106	✓correct	−4
Dec 5	vs MIA	61%	120–116	W 106–105	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	vs SAS	78%	123–112	L 112–114	✗missed	−13
Dec 1	vs CHI	82%	127–114	W 125–120	✓correct	−8
Nov 28	at DET	36%	114–119	W 112–109	✗missed	+8
Nov 25	at PHI	69%	116–109	W 144–103	✓correct	+34
Nov 23	at BOS	36%	110–115	L 129–138	✓correct	−4
Nov 22	vs NYK	53%	118–117	W 133–121	✓correct	+11
Nov 20	vs LAC	69%	115–108	W 129–101	✓correct	+21
Nov 18	vs GSW	56%	116–114	W 121–113	✓correct	+6
Nov 16	at HOU	26%	112–121	L 113–117	✓correct	+5
Nov 14	vs BKN	76%	119–109	W 105–98	✓correct	−3
Nov 12	at NYK	31%	114–121	W 124–107	✗missed	+24
Nov 10	vs POR	42%	118–121	W 115–112	✗missed	+6
Nov 9	vs BOS	47%	114–115	L 107–111	✓correct	−3
Nov 7	vs BOS	44%	113–115	W 123–110	✗missed	+15
Nov 4	at ATL	34%	112–118	L 112–127	✓correct	−9
Nov 1	at WAS	58%	117–114	W 125–94	✓correct	+28
Oct 30	at CHA	47%	112–113	W 123–107	✗missed	+17
Oct 29	at DET	34%	108–114	L 116–135	✓correct	−13
Oct 27	at PHI	58%	113–110	L 124–136	✗missed	−15
Oct 25	vs CHI	47%	115–116	L 98–110	✓correct	−11
Oct 24	vs ATL	59%	116–113	L 107–111	✗missed	−7
Oct 22	vs MIA	59%	111–108	W 125–121	✓correct	+1

2024-25

10.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.6 to 11.4; 4th smallest of 30

−0.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.0 to 1.4

13.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

66%

winner picked

87 games involving ORL

42 / 43.7

actual / expected wins

gap −1.7

0.217

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 87 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ORL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 29 PO	at BOS	27%	102–111	L 89–120	✓correct	−22
Apr 27 PO	vs BOS	57%	102–100	L 98–107	✗missed	−11
Apr 25 PO	vs BOS	62%	105–101	W 95–93	✓correct	−2
Apr 23 PO	at BOS	21%	97–109	L 100–109	✓correct	+3
Apr 20 PO	at BOS	19%	97–110	L 86–103	✓correct	−4
Apr 13	at ATL	56%	114–111	L 105–117	✗missed	−15
Apr 11	at IND	59%	114–110	W 129–115	✓correct	+10
Apr 9	vs BOS	54%	111–110	W 96–76	✓correct	+19
Apr 8	vs ATL	69%	118–111	W 119–112	✓correct	±0
Apr 3	at WAS	73%	118–108	W 109–97	✓correct	+2
Apr 1	at SAS	46%	114–115	W 116–105	✗missed	+12
Mar 31	vs LAC	49%	109–110	L 87–96	✓correct	−8
Mar 29	vs SAC	49%	110–111	W 121–91	✗missed	+31
Mar 27	vs DAL	67%	116–110	L 92–101	✗missed	−15
Mar 25	at CHA	56%	114–111	W 111–104	✓correct	+4
Mar 24	vs LAL	49%	111–112	W 118–106	✗missed	+13
Mar 21	at WAS	61%	115–110	W 120–105	✓correct	+10
Mar 19	vs HOU	44%	107–110	L 108–116	✓correct	−5
Mar 16	at CLE	12%	104–122	W 108–103	✗missed	+23
Mar 14	at MIN	25%	105–115	L 111–118	✓correct	+3
Mar 13	at NOP	51%	113–112	W 113–93	✓correct	+19
Mar 10	at HOU	29%	107–115	L 84–97	✓correct	−5
Mar 8	at MIL	31%	110–117	W 111–109	✗missed	+9
Mar 6	vs CHI	69%	116–109	L 123–125	✗missed	−9
Mar 4	vs TOR	62%	109–105	L 113–114	✗missed	−5
Mar 2	vs TOR	64%	111–106	L 102–104	✗missed	−7
Feb 27	vs GSW	44%	110–113	L 115–121	✓correct	−3
Feb 25	vs CLE	36%	112–118	L 82–122	✓correct	−34
Feb 23	vs WAS	71%	115–107	W 110–90	✓correct	+12
Feb 21	vs MEM	49%	114–115	L 104–105	✓correct	±0
Feb 20	at ATL	38%	112–116	W 114–108	✗missed	+10
Feb 12	vs CHA	77%	113–102	W 102–86	✓correct	+5
Feb 10	vs ATL	54%	115–114	L 106–112	✗missed	−7
Feb 8	vs SAS	54%	115–114	W 112–111	✓correct	±0
Feb 6	at DEN	29%	110–118	L 90–112	✓correct	−14
Feb 5	at SAC	31%	111–118	W 130–111	✗missed	+26
Feb 3	at GSW	36%	108–113	L 99–104	✓correct	±0
Feb 1	at UTA	54%	110–108	L 99–113	✗missed	−16
Jan 30	at POR	43%	107–109	L 90–119	✓correct	−27
Jan 27	at MIA	41%	106–109	L 119–125	✓correct	−3
Jan 25	vs DET	41%	107–111	W 121–113	✗missed	+12
Jan 23	vs POR	67%	112–106	L 79–101	✗missed	−28
Jan 21	at TOR	54%	109–107	L 93–109	✗missed	−18
Jan 19	vs DEN	39%	105–110	L 100–113	✓correct	−8
Jan 17	at BOS	25%	101–111	L 94–121	✓correct	−17
Jan 15	at MIL	31%	102–109	L 93–122	✓correct	−22
Jan 12	vs PHI	62%	108–104	W 104–99	✓correct	+1
Jan 10	vs MIL	46%	107–109	L 106–109	✓correct	−1
Jan 9	vs MIN	59%	107–104	L 89–104	✗missed	−18
Jan 6	at NYK	27%	105–114	W 103–94	✗missed	+18
Jan 5	vs UTA	67%	113–107	L 92–105	✗missed	−19
Jan 3	at TOR	66%	115–108	W 106–97	✓correct	+2
Jan 1	at DET	46%	114–115	L 96–105	✓correct	−8
Dec 29	vs BKN	57%	110–108	W 102–101	✓correct	−1
Dec 27	vs NYK	39%	105–110	L 85–108	✓correct	−18
Dec 26	vs MIA	54%	108–107	L 88–89	✗missed	−2
Dec 23	vs BOS	29%	102–111	W 108–104	✗missed	+13
Dec 21	vs MIA	54%	108–107	W 121–114	✓correct	+6
Dec 19	vs OKC	29%	101–110	L 99–105	✓correct	+3
Dec 15	vs NYK	54%	109–108	L 91–100	✗missed	−10
Dec 10	at MIL	36%	108–113	L 109–114	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	vs PHX	62%	110–106	W 115–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 6	at PHI	71%	111–102	L 94–102	✗missed	−17
Dec 4	at PHI	66%	110–103	W 106–102	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	at NYK	43%	109–111	L 106–121	✓correct	−13
Dec 1	at BKN	64%	115–109	W 100–92	✓correct	+2
Nov 29	at BKN	69%	116–108	W 123–100	✓correct	+15
Nov 27	vs CHI	75%	120–110	W 133–119	✓correct	+4
Nov 25	at CHA	69%	112–104	W 95–84	✓correct	+3
Nov 23	vs DET	73%	112–103	W 111–100	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at LAL	41%	109–112	W 119–118	✗missed	+4
Nov 20	at LAC	51%	107–106	L 93–104	✗missed	−12
Nov 18	at PHX	59%	112–108	W 109–99	✓correct	+6
Nov 15	vs PHI	69%	111–104	W 98–86	✓correct	+5
Nov 13	vs IND	59%	113–110	W 94–90	✓correct	+1
Nov 12	vs CHA	73%	114–105	W 114–89	✓correct	+16
Nov 10	vs WAS	71%	120–112	W 121–94	✓correct	+19
Nov 8	vs NOP	62%	113–109	W 115–88	✓correct	+23
Nov 6	at IND	33%	111–117	L 111–118	✓correct	−1
Nov 4	at OKC	18%	105–119	L 86–102	✓correct	−2
Nov 3	at DAL	31%	103–110	L 85–108	✓correct	−16
Nov 1	at CLE	33%	105–111	L 109–120	✓correct	−5
Oct 30	at CHI	51%	115–114	L 99–102	✗missed	−4
Oct 28	vs IND	54%	109–108	W 119–115	✓correct	+3
Oct 26	at MEM	61%	112–107	L 111–124	✗missed	−18
Oct 25	vs BKN	71%	112–104	W 116–101	✓correct	+7
Oct 23	at MIA	46%	106–107	W 116–97	✗missed	+20

2023-24

11.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.6 to 12.3; 15th smallest of 30

+0.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.1 to 2.8

13.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

69%

winner picked

89 games involving ORL

50 / 47.5

actual / expected wins

gap +2.5

0.212

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 89 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ORL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 5 PO	at CLE	43%	102–103	L 94–106	✓correct	−11
May 3 PO	vs CLE	63%	107–103	W 103–96	✓correct	+3
Apr 30 PO	at CLE	47%	107–106	L 103–104	✗missed	−2
Apr 27 PO	vs CLE	63%	109–105	W 112–89	✓correct	+19
Apr 25 PO	vs CLE	57%	107–106	W 121–83	✓correct	+37
Apr 22 PO	at CLE	43%	109–110	L 86–96	✓correct	−9
Apr 20 PO	at CLE	43%	113–114	L 83–97	✓correct	−13
Apr 14	vs MIL	61%	109–106	W 113–88	✓correct	+22
Apr 12	at PHI	43%	108–109	L 113–125	✓correct	−11
Apr 10	at MIL	43%	108–109	L 99–117	✓correct	−17
Apr 9	at HOU	47%	113–112	L 106–118	✗missed	−13
Apr 7	vs CHI	59%	112–110	W 113–98	✓correct	+13
Apr 5	at CHA	61%	115–107	L 115–124	✗missed	−17
Apr 3	at NOP	43%	105–106	W 117–108	✗missed	+10
Apr 1	vs POR	82%	115–99	W 104–103	✓correct	−15
Mar 30	vs MEM	70%	110–102	W 118–88	✓correct	+22
Mar 29	vs LAC	53%	109–110	L 97–100	✓correct	−2
Mar 27	vs GSW	70%	115–107	L 93–101	✗missed	−16
Mar 23	vs SAC	61%	111–108	L 107–109	✗missed	−5
Mar 21	vs NOP	57%	108–107	W 121–106	✓correct	+14
Mar 19	vs CHA	70%	107–99	W 112–92	✓correct	+12
Mar 17	vs TOR	75%	117–106	W 111–96	✓correct	+4
Mar 15	at TOR	71%	120–107	W 113–103	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	vs BKN	57%	110–109	W 114–106	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	vs IND	63%	113–109	L 97–111	✗missed	−18
Mar 8	at NYK	41%	109–111	L 74–98	✓correct	−22
Mar 6	at WAS	57%	118–112	W 119–109	✓correct	+4
Mar 5	at CHA	53%	111–107	W 101–89	✓correct	+8
Mar 3	vs DET	76%	116–104	W 113–91	✓correct	+10
Feb 29	vs UTA	61%	116–113	W 115–107	✓correct	+5
Feb 27	vs BKN	68%	114–107	W 108–81	✓correct	+20
Feb 25	at ATL	47%	119–118	L 92–109	✗missed	−18
Feb 24	at DET	55%	118–113	W 112–109	✓correct	−2
Feb 22	at CLE	28%	107–116	W 116–109	✗missed	+16
Feb 14	vs NYK	53%	105–106	W 118–100	✗missed	+19
Feb 13	vs OKC	53%	111–112	L 113–127	✓correct	−13
Feb 10	vs CHI	59%	113–111	W 114–108	✓correct	+4
Feb 8	vs SAS	73%	119–109	W 127–111	✓correct	+6
Feb 6	at MIA	57%	113–107	L 95–121	✗missed	−32
Feb 4	at DET	57%	118–112	W 111–99	✓correct	+6
Feb 2	at MIN	41%	106–108	W 108–106	✗missed	+4
Jan 31	at SAS	55%	116–111	W 108–98	✓correct	+5
Jan 29	at DAL	47%	113–112	L 129–131	✗missed	−3
Jan 28	vs PHX	47%	108–112	W 113–98	✗missed	+19
Jan 26	at MEM	51%	109–106	L 106–107	✗missed	−4
Jan 22	vs CLE	51%	107–109	L 99–126	✓correct	−25
Jan 21	vs MIA	57%	109–108	W 105–87	✓correct	+17
Jan 19	vs PHI	51%	106–108	L 109–124	✓correct	−13
Jan 17	at ATL	47%	116–115	L 104–106	✗missed	−3
Jan 15	at NYK	34%	109–115	W 98–94	✗missed	+10
Jan 13	at OKC	28%	112–121	L 100–112	✓correct	−3
Jan 12	at MIA	37%	111–115	L 96–99	✓correct	+1
Jan 9	vs MIN	51%	111–113	L 92–113	✓correct	−19
Jan 7	vs ATL	59%	118–116	W 117–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 5	at DEN	34%	109–115	W 122–120	✗missed	+8
Jan 3	at SAC	39%	115–118	L 135–138	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	at GSW	43%	117–118	L 115–121	✓correct	−5
Dec 31	at PHX	41%	115–117	L 107–112	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	vs NYK	53%	112–113	W 117–108	✗missed	+10
Dec 27	vs PHI	63%	117–113	L 92–112	✗missed	−24
Dec 26	at WAS	57%	123–117	W 127–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	at IND	47%	121–120	W 117–110	✓correct	+6
Dec 21	at MIL	34%	113–119	L 114–118	✓correct	+2
Dec 20	vs MIA	68%	117–110	L 106–115	✗missed	−16
Dec 17	at BOS	39%	115–118	L 97–114	✓correct	−14
Dec 15	at BOS	41%	114–116	L 111–128	✓correct	−15
Dec 11	vs CLE	68%	120–113	W 104–94	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	vs DET	82%	125–109	W 123–91	✓correct	+16
Dec 6	at CLE	39%	113–116	L 111–121	✓correct	−7
Dec 2	at BKN	43%	115–116	L 101–129	✓correct	−27
Dec 1	vs WAS	76%	121–109	W 130–125	✓correct	−7
Nov 29	vs WAS	76%	121–109	W 139–120	✓correct	+7
Nov 26	vs CHA	76%	117–105	W 130–117	✓correct	+1
Nov 24	vs BOS	57%	112–111	W 113–96	✓correct	+16
Nov 22	vs DEN	53%	112–113	W 124–119	✗missed	+6
Nov 21	vs TOR	59%	114–112	W 126–107	✓correct	+17
Nov 19	at IND	39%	118–121	W 128–116	✗missed	+15
Nov 17	at CHI	43%	111–112	W 103–97	✗missed	+7
Nov 15	at CHI	41%	110–112	W 96–94	✗missed	+4
Nov 14	at BKN	34%	110–116	L 104–124	✓correct	−14
Nov 11	vs MIL	57%	115–114	W 112–97	✓correct	+14
Nov 9	vs ATL	53%	114–115	L 119–120	✓correct	±0
Nov 6	vs DAL	63%	117–113	L 102–117	✗missed	−19
Nov 4	vs LAL	49%	110–113	W 120–101	✗missed	+22
Nov 2	at UTA	43%	115–116	W 115–113	✗missed	+3
Oct 31	at LAC	35%	113–118	L 102–118	✓correct	−11
Oct 30	at LAL	39%	112–115	L 103–106	✓correct	±0
Oct 27	at POR	53%	117–113	W 102–97	✓correct	+1
Oct 25	vs HOU	67%	117–111	W 116–86	✓correct	+24

2022-23

9.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.6 to 11.2; 10th smallest of 30

+0.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.3 to 3.2

12.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

56%

winner picked

82 games involving ORL

34 / 33.9

actual / expected wins

gap +0.1

0.238

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ORL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	at MIA	37%	108–113	L 110–123	✓correct	−8
Apr 7	at BKN	32%	111–118	L 84–101	✓correct	−10
Apr 6	vs CLE	32%	113–120	L 94–118	✓correct	−17
Apr 4	vs CLE	37%	112–117	L 113–117	✓correct	+1
Apr 2	vs DET	72%	118–109	W 128–102	✓correct	+17
Mar 31	at WAS	63%	117–112	W 116–109	✓correct	+2
Mar 28	at MEM	37%	111–116	L 108–113	✓correct	±0
Mar 26	vs BKN	37%	113–118	W 119–106	✗missed	+18
Mar 23	vs NYK	40%	116–120	W 111–106	✗missed	+9
Mar 21	vs WAS	47%	116–117	W 122–112	✗missed	+11
Mar 19	at LAL	42%	116–119	L 105–111	✓correct	−3
Mar 18	at LAC	45%	116–118	W 113–108	✗missed	+7
Mar 16	at PHX	32%	113–120	L 113–116	✓correct	+4
Mar 14	at SAS	76%	122–111	L 114–132	✗missed	−29
Mar 11	vs MIA	35%	114–120	W 126–114	✗missed	+18
Mar 9	vs UTA	53%	113–112	L 124–131	✗missed	−8
Mar 7	vs MIL	53%	114–113	L 123–134	✗missed	−12
Mar 5	vs POR	63%	119–114	L 119–122	✗missed	−8
Mar 3	at CHA	76%	120–109	W 117–106	✓correct	±0
Mar 1	at MIL	53%	112–111	L 117–139	✗missed	−23
Feb 27	at NOP	55%	114–112	W 101–93	✓correct	+6
Feb 25	vs IND	60%	117–113	L 108–121	✗missed	−17
Feb 23	vs DET	68%	117–110	W 108–106	✓correct	−5
Feb 14	at TOR	40%	112–116	L 113–123	✓correct	−6
Feb 13	at CHI	55%	113–111	W 100–91	✓correct	+7
Feb 11	vs MIA	40%	109–113	L 103–107	✓correct	±0
Feb 9	vs DEN	30%	112–120	W 115–104	✗missed	+19
Feb 7	vs NYK	47%	115–116	L 98–102	✓correct	−3
Feb 5	at CHA	74%	124–114	W 119–113	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	at MIN	37%	113–118	W 127–120	✗missed	+12
Feb 1	at PHI	40%	113–117	L 94–105	✓correct	−7
Jan 30	at PHI	35%	111–117	W 119–109	✗missed	+16
Jan 28	vs CHI	37%	113–118	L 109–128	✓correct	−14
Jan 27	at MIA	40%	111–115	L 105–110	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs IND	47%	115–116	W 126–120	✗missed	+7
Jan 23	vs BOS	45%	113–115	W 113–98	✗missed	+17
Jan 21	at WAS	40%	115–119	L 118–138	✓correct	−16
Jan 20	vs NOP	37%	115–120	W 123–110	✗missed	+18
Jan 15	at DEN	32%	111–118	L 116–119	✓correct	+4
Jan 13	at UTA	28%	113–122	L 108–112	✓correct	+5
Jan 10	at POR	40%	115–119	W 109–106	✗missed	+7
Jan 9	at SAC	37%	117–122	L 111–136	✓correct	−20
Jan 7	at GSW	40%	112–116	W 115–101	✗missed	+18
Jan 5	vs MEM	35%	111–117	L 115–123	✓correct	−2
Jan 4	vs OKC	26%	111–121	W 126–115	✗missed	+21
Dec 30	vs WAS	26%	111–121	L 100–119	✓correct	−9
Dec 28	at DET	58%	119–116	L 101–121	✗missed	−23
Dec 27	vs LAL	55%	119–117	L 110–129	✗missed	−21
Dec 23	vs SAS	70%	118–110	W 133–113	✓correct	+12
Dec 21	at HOU	63%	114–109	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	at ATL	40%	111–115	L 125–126	✓correct	+3
Dec 18	at BOS	30%	108–116	W 95–92	✗missed	+11
Dec 16	at BOS	24%	109–120	W 117–109	✗missed	+19
Dec 14	vs ATL	42%	108–111	W 135–124	✗missed	+14
Dec 11	vs TOR	40%	106–110	W 111–99	✗missed	+16
Dec 9	vs TOR	32%	108–115	W 113–109	✗missed	+11
Dec 7	vs LAC	47%	110–111	W 116–111	✗missed	+6
Dec 5	vs MIL	30%	108–116	L 102–109	✓correct	+1
Dec 3	at TOR	20%	104–117	L 108–121	✓correct	±0
Dec 2	at CLE	19%	101–115	L 96–107	✓correct	+3
Nov 30	vs ATL	22%	106–118	L 108–125	✓correct	−5
Nov 28	at BKN	22%	104–116	L 102–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 27	vs PHI	40%	106–110	L 103–133	✓correct	−26
Nov 25	vs PHI	42%	110–113	L 99–107	✓correct	−5
Nov 21	at IND	32%	111–118	L 102–123	✓correct	−14
Nov 19	at IND	28%	109–118	L 113–114	✓correct	+8
Nov 18	at CHI	26%	105–115	W 108–107	✗missed	+11
Nov 16	vs MIN	40%	110–114	L 108–126	✓correct	−14
Nov 14	vs CHA	55%	107–105	L 105–112	✗missed	−9
Nov 11	vs PHX	32%	104–111	W 114–97	✗missed	+24
Nov 9	vs DAL	32%	104–111	W 94–87	✗missed	+14
Nov 7	vs HOU	65%	115–109	L 127–134	✗missed	−13
Nov 5	vs SAC	53%	114–113	L 123–126	✗missed	−4
Nov 3	vs GSW	28%	108–117	W 130–129	✗missed	+10
Nov 1	at OKC	40%	107–111	L 108–116	✓correct	−4
Oct 30	at DAL	24%	103–114	L 105–114	✓correct	+2
Oct 28	vs CHA	37%	112–117	W 113–93	✗missed	+25
Oct 26	at CLE	20%	105–118	L 92–103	✓correct	+2
Oct 24	at NYK	30%	106–114	L 102–115	✓correct	−5
Oct 22	vs BOS	35%	101–107	L 120–126	✓correct	±0
Oct 21	at ATL	24%	103–114	L 98–108	✓correct	+1
Oct 19	at DET	45%	108–110	L 109–113	✓correct	−2

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.8 to 11.2; 4th smallest of 30

−0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.3 to 1.0

13.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

64%

winner picked

353 games involving ORL

175 / 173.4

actual / expected wins

gap +1.6

0.221

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 353 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ORL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at GSW	20%	107–119	L 119–126	✓correct	+5
Nov 5	at PHX	36%	112–117	L 104–117	✓correct	−8
Nov 2	vs WAS	62%	111–107	L 94–103	✗missed	−13
Nov 1	vs BOS	28%	105–113	L 97–108	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	at TOR	26%	106–115	W 121–114	✗missed	+16
Oct 28	at TOR	33%	107–113	L 99–129	✓correct	−24
Oct 25	at NYK	22%	103–114	W 111–102	✗missed	+20
Oct 23	vs MIN	59%	115–112	L 93–115	✗missed	−25
Oct 21	vs ATL	56%	113–111	L 125–132	✗missed	−9
May 3 PO	at DET	22%	99–110	L 94–116	✓correct	−11
May 1 PO	vs DET	63%	114–109	L 79–93	✗missed	−19
Apr 29 PO	at DET	24%	103–113	L 109–116	✓correct	+3
Apr 27 PO	vs DET	55%	111–109	W 94–88	✓correct	+4
Apr 25 PO	vs DET	45%	110–112	W 113–105	✗missed	+10
Apr 22 PO	at DET	24%	105–115	L 83–98	✓correct	−5
Apr 19 PO	at DET	17%	103–117	W 112–101	✗missed	+25
Apr 12	at BOS	36%	110–115	L 108–113	✓correct	±0
Apr 10	at CHI	78%	124–113	W 127–103	✓correct	+13
Apr 8	vs MIN	69%	120–113	W 132–120	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	vs DET	39%	113–117	W 123–107	✗missed	+20
Apr 5	at NOP	69%	118–111	W 112–108	✓correct	−3
Apr 3	at DAL	66%	120–114	W 138–127	✓correct	+5
Apr 1	vs ATL	39%	116–120	L 101–130	✓correct	−25
Mar 31	vs PHX	53%	117–116	W 115–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 29	at TOR	47%	116–117	L 87–139	✓correct	−51
Mar 26	vs SAC	82%	125–112	W 121–117	✓correct	−9
Mar 24	at CLE	39%	114–118	L 131–136	✓correct	−1
Mar 23	vs IND	82%	122–109	L 126–128	✗missed	−15
Mar 21	vs LAL	56%	118–116	L 104–105	✗missed	−3
Mar 19	at CHA	41%	112–115	L 111–130	✓correct	−16
Mar 17	vs OKC	44%	112–114	L 108–113	✓correct	−3
Mar 16	at ATL	41%	114–117	L 112–124	✓correct	−9
Mar 14	at MIA	41%	115–118	W 121–117	✗missed	+7
Mar 12	vs WAS	82%	122–109	W 136–131	✓correct	−8
Mar 11	vs CLE	47%	108–109	W 128–122	✗missed	+7
Mar 8	at MIL	69%	113–106	W 130–91	✓correct	+32
Mar 7	at MIN	39%	111–115	W 119–92	✗missed	+31
Mar 5	vs DAL	71%	120–112	W 115–114	✓correct	−7
Mar 3	vs WAS	86%	122–106	W 126–109	✓correct	+1
Mar 1	vs DET	34%	108–114	L 92–106	✓correct	−8
Feb 26	vs HOU	44%	107–109	L 108–113	✓correct	−3
Feb 24	at LAL	47%	114–115	W 110–109	✗missed	+2
Feb 22	at LAC	47%	113–114	W 111–109	✗missed	+3
Feb 21	at PHX	53%	114–113	L 110–113	✗missed	−4
Feb 19	at SAC	69%	115–108	W 131–94	✓correct	+30
Feb 11	vs MIL	67%	117–111	L 108–116	✗missed	−14
Feb 9	vs MIL	59%	116–113	W 118–99	✓correct	+16
Feb 7	vs UTA	71%	122–114	W 120–117	✓correct	−5
Feb 5	vs BKN	71%	114–106	W 118–98	✓correct	+12
Feb 3	at OKC	20%	108–120	L 92–128	✓correct	−24
Feb 1	at SAS	34%	110–116	L 103–112	✓correct	−3
Jan 30	vs TOR	42%	111–114	W 130–120	✗missed	+13
Jan 28	at MIA	41%	116–119	W 133–124	✗missed	+12
Jan 26	at CLE	41%	116–119	L 98–114	✓correct	−13
Jan 24	vs CLE	53%	118–117	L 105–119	✗missed	−15
Jan 22	vs CHA	42%	110–113	L 97–124	✓correct	−24
Jan 11	vs NOP	76%	122–112	W 128–118	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	vs PHI	56%	118–116	L 91–103	✗missed	−14
Jan 7	at BKN	44%	111–113	W 104–103	✗missed	+3
Jan 6	at WAS	71%	121–113	L 112–120	✗missed	−16
Jan 4	vs IND	78%	123–112	W 135–127	✓correct	−3
Jan 2	at CHI	58%	119–116	L 114–121	✗missed	−10
Dec 31	at IND	64%	118–113	W 112–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	at TOR	41%	110–113	L 106–107	✓correct	+2
Dec 27	vs DEN	36%	113–118	W 127–126	✗missed	+6
Dec 26	vs CHA	64%	119–114	L 105–120	✗missed	−20
Dec 23	at POR	58%	118–115	W 110–106	✓correct	+1
Dec 22	at GSW	34%	112–118	L 97–120	✓correct	−17
Dec 20	at UTA	64%	123–118	W 128–127	✓correct	−4
Dec 18	at DEN	26%	116–125	L 115–126	✓correct	−2
Dec 9	vs MIA	67%	122–116	W 117–108	✓correct	+3
Dec 7	at NYK	44%	116–118	L 100–106	✓correct	−4
Dec 5	vs MIA	61%	120–116	W 106–105	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	vs SAS	78%	123–112	L 112–114	✗missed	−13
Dec 1	vs CHI	82%	127–114	W 125–120	✓correct	−8
Nov 28	at DET	36%	114–119	W 112–109	✗missed	+8
Nov 25	at PHI	69%	116–109	W 144–103	✓correct	+34
Nov 23	at BOS	36%	110–115	L 129–138	✓correct	−4
Nov 22	vs NYK	53%	118–117	W 133–121	✓correct	+11
Nov 20	vs LAC	69%	115–108	W 129–101	✓correct	+21
Nov 18	vs GSW	56%	116–114	W 121–113	✓correct	+6
Nov 16	at HOU	26%	112–121	L 113–117	✓correct	+5
Nov 14	vs BKN	76%	119–109	W 105–98	✓correct	−3
Nov 12	at NYK	31%	114–121	W 124–107	✗missed	+24
Nov 10	vs POR	42%	118–121	W 115–112	✗missed	+6
Nov 9	vs BOS	47%	114–115	L 107–111	✓correct	−3
Nov 7	vs BOS	44%	113–115	W 123–110	✗missed	+15
Nov 4	at ATL	34%	112–118	L 112–127	✓correct	−9
Nov 1	at WAS	58%	117–114	W 125–94	✓correct	+28
Oct 30	at CHA	47%	112–113	W 123–107	✗missed	+17
Oct 29	at DET	34%	108–114	L 116–135	✓correct	−13
Oct 27	at PHI	58%	113–110	L 124–136	✗missed	−15
Oct 25	vs CHI	47%	115–116	L 98–110	✓correct	−11
Oct 24	vs ATL	59%	116–113	L 107–111	✗missed	−7
Oct 22	vs MIA	59%	111–108	W 125–121	✓correct	+1
Apr 29 PO	at BOS	27%	102–111	L 89–120	✓correct	−22
Apr 27 PO	vs BOS	57%	102–100	L 98–107	✗missed	−11
Apr 25 PO	vs BOS	62%	105–101	W 95–93	✓correct	−2
Apr 23 PO	at BOS	21%	97–109	L 100–109	✓correct	+3
Apr 20 PO	at BOS	19%	97–110	L 86–103	✓correct	−4
Apr 13	at ATL	56%	114–111	L 105–117	✗missed	−15
Apr 11	at IND	59%	114–110	W 129–115	✓correct	+10
Apr 9	vs BOS	54%	111–110	W 96–76	✓correct	+19
Apr 8	vs ATL	69%	118–111	W 119–112	✓correct	±0
Apr 3	at WAS	73%	118–108	W 109–97	✓correct	+2
Apr 1	at SAS	46%	114–115	W 116–105	✗missed	+12
Mar 31	vs LAC	49%	109–110	L 87–96	✓correct	−8
Mar 29	vs SAC	49%	110–111	W 121–91	✗missed	+31
Mar 27	vs DAL	67%	116–110	L 92–101	✗missed	−15
Mar 25	at CHA	56%	114–111	W 111–104	✓correct	+4
Mar 24	vs LAL	49%	111–112	W 118–106	✗missed	+13
Mar 21	at WAS	61%	115–110	W 120–105	✓correct	+10
Mar 19	vs HOU	44%	107–110	L 108–116	✓correct	−5
Mar 16	at CLE	12%	104–122	W 108–103	✗missed	+23
Mar 14	at MIN	25%	105–115	L 111–118	✓correct	+3
Mar 13	at NOP	51%	113–112	W 113–93	✓correct	+19
Mar 10	at HOU	29%	107–115	L 84–97	✓correct	−5
Mar 8	at MIL	31%	110–117	W 111–109	✗missed	+9
Mar 6	vs CHI	69%	116–109	L 123–125	✗missed	−9
Mar 4	vs TOR	62%	109–105	L 113–114	✗missed	−5
Mar 2	vs TOR	64%	111–106	L 102–104	✗missed	−7
Feb 27	vs GSW	44%	110–113	L 115–121	✓correct	−3
Feb 25	vs CLE	36%	112–118	L 82–122	✓correct	−34
Feb 23	vs WAS	71%	115–107	W 110–90	✓correct	+12
Feb 21	vs MEM	49%	114–115	L 104–105	✓correct	±0
Feb 20	at ATL	38%	112–116	W 114–108	✗missed	+10
Feb 12	vs CHA	77%	113–102	W 102–86	✓correct	+5
Feb 10	vs ATL	54%	115–114	L 106–112	✗missed	−7
Feb 8	vs SAS	54%	115–114	W 112–111	✓correct	±0
Feb 6	at DEN	29%	110–118	L 90–112	✓correct	−14
Feb 5	at SAC	31%	111–118	W 130–111	✗missed	+26
Feb 3	at GSW	36%	108–113	L 99–104	✓correct	±0
Feb 1	at UTA	54%	110–108	L 99–113	✗missed	−16
Jan 30	at POR	43%	107–109	L 90–119	✓correct	−27
Jan 27	at MIA	41%	106–109	L 119–125	✓correct	−3
Jan 25	vs DET	41%	107–111	W 121–113	✗missed	+12
Jan 23	vs POR	67%	112–106	L 79–101	✗missed	−28
Jan 21	at TOR	54%	109–107	L 93–109	✗missed	−18
Jan 19	vs DEN	39%	105–110	L 100–113	✓correct	−8
Jan 17	at BOS	25%	101–111	L 94–121	✓correct	−17
Jan 15	at MIL	31%	102–109	L 93–122	✓correct	−22
Jan 12	vs PHI	62%	108–104	W 104–99	✓correct	+1
Jan 10	vs MIL	46%	107–109	L 106–109	✓correct	−1
Jan 9	vs MIN	59%	107–104	L 89–104	✗missed	−18
Jan 6	at NYK	27%	105–114	W 103–94	✗missed	+18
Jan 5	vs UTA	67%	113–107	L 92–105	✗missed	−19
Jan 3	at TOR	66%	115–108	W 106–97	✓correct	+2
Jan 1	at DET	46%	114–115	L 96–105	✓correct	−8
Dec 29	vs BKN	57%	110–108	W 102–101	✓correct	−1
Dec 27	vs NYK	39%	105–110	L 85–108	✓correct	−18
Dec 26	vs MIA	54%	108–107	L 88–89	✗missed	−2
Dec 23	vs BOS	29%	102–111	W 108–104	✗missed	+13
Dec 21	vs MIA	54%	108–107	W 121–114	✓correct	+6
Dec 19	vs OKC	29%	101–110	L 99–105	✓correct	+3
Dec 15	vs NYK	54%	109–108	L 91–100	✗missed	−10
Dec 10	at MIL	36%	108–113	L 109–114	✓correct	±0
Dec 8	vs PHX	62%	110–106	W 115–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 6	at PHI	71%	111–102	L 94–102	✗missed	−17
Dec 4	at PHI	66%	110–103	W 106–102	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	at NYK	43%	109–111	L 106–121	✓correct	−13
Dec 1	at BKN	64%	115–109	W 100–92	✓correct	+2
Nov 29	at BKN	69%	116–108	W 123–100	✓correct	+15
Nov 27	vs CHI	75%	120–110	W 133–119	✓correct	+4
Nov 25	at CHA	69%	112–104	W 95–84	✓correct	+3
Nov 23	vs DET	73%	112–103	W 111–100	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at LAL	41%	109–112	W 119–118	✗missed	+4
Nov 20	at LAC	51%	107–106	L 93–104	✗missed	−12
Nov 18	at PHX	59%	112–108	W 109–99	✓correct	+6
Nov 15	vs PHI	69%	111–104	W 98–86	✓correct	+5
Nov 13	vs IND	59%	113–110	W 94–90	✓correct	+1
Nov 12	vs CHA	73%	114–105	W 114–89	✓correct	+16
Nov 10	vs WAS	71%	120–112	W 121–94	✓correct	+19
Nov 8	vs NOP	62%	113–109	W 115–88	✓correct	+23
Nov 6	at IND	33%	111–117	L 111–118	✓correct	−1
Nov 4	at OKC	18%	105–119	L 86–102	✓correct	−2
Nov 3	at DAL	31%	103–110	L 85–108	✓correct	−16
Nov 1	at CLE	33%	105–111	L 109–120	✓correct	−5
Oct 30	at CHI	51%	115–114	L 99–102	✗missed	−4
Oct 28	vs IND	54%	109–108	W 119–115	✓correct	+3
Oct 26	at MEM	61%	112–107	L 111–124	✗missed	−18
Oct 25	vs BKN	71%	112–104	W 116–101	✓correct	+7
Oct 23	at MIA	46%	106–107	W 116–97	✗missed	+20
May 5 PO	at CLE	43%	102–103	L 94–106	✓correct	−11
May 3 PO	vs CLE	63%	107–103	W 103–96	✓correct	+3
Apr 30 PO	at CLE	47%	107–106	L 103–104	✗missed	−2
Apr 27 PO	vs CLE	63%	109–105	W 112–89	✓correct	+19
Apr 25 PO	vs CLE	57%	107–106	W 121–83	✓correct	+37
Apr 22 PO	at CLE	43%	109–110	L 86–96	✓correct	−9
Apr 20 PO	at CLE	43%	113–114	L 83–97	✓correct	−13
Apr 14	vs MIL	61%	109–106	W 113–88	✓correct	+22
Apr 12	at PHI	43%	108–109	L 113–125	✓correct	−11
Apr 10	at MIL	43%	108–109	L 99–117	✓correct	−17
Apr 9	at HOU	47%	113–112	L 106–118	✗missed	−13
Apr 7	vs CHI	59%	112–110	W 113–98	✓correct	+13
Apr 5	at CHA	61%	115–107	L 115–124	✗missed	−17
Apr 3	at NOP	43%	105–106	W 117–108	✗missed	+10
Apr 1	vs POR	82%	115–99	W 104–103	✓correct	−15
Mar 30	vs MEM	70%	110–102	W 118–88	✓correct	+22
Mar 29	vs LAC	53%	109–110	L 97–100	✓correct	−2
Mar 27	vs GSW	70%	115–107	L 93–101	✗missed	−16
Mar 23	vs SAC	61%	111–108	L 107–109	✗missed	−5
Mar 21	vs NOP	57%	108–107	W 121–106	✓correct	+14
Mar 19	vs CHA	70%	107–99	W 112–92	✓correct	+12
Mar 17	vs TOR	75%	117–106	W 111–96	✓correct	+4
Mar 15	at TOR	71%	120–107	W 113–103	✓correct	−3
Mar 13	vs BKN	57%	110–109	W 114–106	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	vs IND	63%	113–109	L 97–111	✗missed	−18
Mar 8	at NYK	41%	109–111	L 74–98	✓correct	−22
Mar 6	at WAS	57%	118–112	W 119–109	✓correct	+4
Mar 5	at CHA	53%	111–107	W 101–89	✓correct	+8
Mar 3	vs DET	76%	116–104	W 113–91	✓correct	+10
Feb 29	vs UTA	61%	116–113	W 115–107	✓correct	+5
Feb 27	vs BKN	68%	114–107	W 108–81	✓correct	+20
Feb 25	at ATL	47%	119–118	L 92–109	✗missed	−18
Feb 24	at DET	55%	118–113	W 112–109	✓correct	−2
Feb 22	at CLE	28%	107–116	W 116–109	✗missed	+16
Feb 14	vs NYK	53%	105–106	W 118–100	✗missed	+19
Feb 13	vs OKC	53%	111–112	L 113–127	✓correct	−13
Feb 10	vs CHI	59%	113–111	W 114–108	✓correct	+4
Feb 8	vs SAS	73%	119–109	W 127–111	✓correct	+6
Feb 6	at MIA	57%	113–107	L 95–121	✗missed	−32
Feb 4	at DET	57%	118–112	W 111–99	✓correct	+6
Feb 2	at MIN	41%	106–108	W 108–106	✗missed	+4
Jan 31	at SAS	55%	116–111	W 108–98	✓correct	+5
Jan 29	at DAL	47%	113–112	L 129–131	✗missed	−3
Jan 28	vs PHX	47%	108–112	W 113–98	✗missed	+19
Jan 26	at MEM	51%	109–106	L 106–107	✗missed	−4
Jan 22	vs CLE	51%	107–109	L 99–126	✓correct	−25
Jan 21	vs MIA	57%	109–108	W 105–87	✓correct	+17
Jan 19	vs PHI	51%	106–108	L 109–124	✓correct	−13
Jan 17	at ATL	47%	116–115	L 104–106	✗missed	−3
Jan 15	at NYK	34%	109–115	W 98–94	✗missed	+10
Jan 13	at OKC	28%	112–121	L 100–112	✓correct	−3
Jan 12	at MIA	37%	111–115	L 96–99	✓correct	+1
Jan 9	vs MIN	51%	111–113	L 92–113	✓correct	−19
Jan 7	vs ATL	59%	118–116	W 117–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 5	at DEN	34%	109–115	W 122–120	✗missed	+8
Jan 3	at SAC	39%	115–118	L 135–138	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	at GSW	43%	117–118	L 115–121	✓correct	−5
Dec 31	at PHX	41%	115–117	L 107–112	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	vs NYK	53%	112–113	W 117–108	✗missed	+10
Dec 27	vs PHI	63%	117–113	L 92–112	✗missed	−24
Dec 26	at WAS	57%	123–117	W 127–119	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	at IND	47%	121–120	W 117–110	✓correct	+6
Dec 21	at MIL	34%	113–119	L 114–118	✓correct	+2
Dec 20	vs MIA	68%	117–110	L 106–115	✗missed	−16
Dec 17	at BOS	39%	115–118	L 97–114	✓correct	−14
Dec 15	at BOS	41%	114–116	L 111–128	✓correct	−15
Dec 11	vs CLE	68%	120–113	W 104–94	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	vs DET	82%	125–109	W 123–91	✓correct	+16
Dec 6	at CLE	39%	113–116	L 111–121	✓correct	−7
Dec 2	at BKN	43%	115–116	L 101–129	✓correct	−27
Dec 1	vs WAS	76%	121–109	W 130–125	✓correct	−7
Nov 29	vs WAS	76%	121–109	W 139–120	✓correct	+7
Nov 26	vs CHA	76%	117–105	W 130–117	✓correct	+1
Nov 24	vs BOS	57%	112–111	W 113–96	✓correct	+16
Nov 22	vs DEN	53%	112–113	W 124–119	✗missed	+6
Nov 21	vs TOR	59%	114–112	W 126–107	✓correct	+17
Nov 19	at IND	39%	118–121	W 128–116	✗missed	+15
Nov 17	at CHI	43%	111–112	W 103–97	✗missed	+7
Nov 15	at CHI	41%	110–112	W 96–94	✗missed	+4
Nov 14	at BKN	34%	110–116	L 104–124	✓correct	−14
Nov 11	vs MIL	57%	115–114	W 112–97	✓correct	+14
Nov 9	vs ATL	53%	114–115	L 119–120	✓correct	±0
Nov 6	vs DAL	63%	117–113	L 102–117	✗missed	−19
Nov 4	vs LAL	49%	110–113	W 120–101	✗missed	+22
Nov 2	at UTA	43%	115–116	W 115–113	✗missed	+3
Oct 31	at LAC	35%	113–118	L 102–118	✓correct	−11
Oct 30	at LAL	39%	112–115	L 103–106	✓correct	±0
Oct 27	at POR	53%	117–113	W 102–97	✓correct	+1
Oct 25	vs HOU	67%	117–111	W 116–86	✓correct	+24
Apr 9	at MIA	37%	108–113	L 110–123	✓correct	−8
Apr 7	at BKN	32%	111–118	L 84–101	✓correct	−10
Apr 6	vs CLE	32%	113–120	L 94–118	✓correct	−17
Apr 4	vs CLE	37%	112–117	L 113–117	✓correct	+1
Apr 2	vs DET	72%	118–109	W 128–102	✓correct	+17
Mar 31	at WAS	63%	117–112	W 116–109	✓correct	+2
Mar 28	at MEM	37%	111–116	L 108–113	✓correct	±0
Mar 26	vs BKN	37%	113–118	W 119–106	✗missed	+18
Mar 23	vs NYK	40%	116–120	W 111–106	✗missed	+9
Mar 21	vs WAS	47%	116–117	W 122–112	✗missed	+11
Mar 19	at LAL	42%	116–119	L 105–111	✓correct	−3
Mar 18	at LAC	45%	116–118	W 113–108	✗missed	+7
Mar 16	at PHX	32%	113–120	L 113–116	✓correct	+4
Mar 14	at SAS	76%	122–111	L 114–132	✗missed	−29
Mar 11	vs MIA	35%	114–120	W 126–114	✗missed	+18
Mar 9	vs UTA	53%	113–112	L 124–131	✗missed	−8
Mar 7	vs MIL	53%	114–113	L 123–134	✗missed	−12
Mar 5	vs POR	63%	119–114	L 119–122	✗missed	−8
Mar 3	at CHA	76%	120–109	W 117–106	✓correct	±0
Mar 1	at MIL	53%	112–111	L 117–139	✗missed	−23
Feb 27	at NOP	55%	114–112	W 101–93	✓correct	+6
Feb 25	vs IND	60%	117–113	L 108–121	✗missed	−17
Feb 23	vs DET	68%	117–110	W 108–106	✓correct	−5
Feb 14	at TOR	40%	112–116	L 113–123	✓correct	−6
Feb 13	at CHI	55%	113–111	W 100–91	✓correct	+7
Feb 11	vs MIA	40%	109–113	L 103–107	✓correct	±0
Feb 9	vs DEN	30%	112–120	W 115–104	✗missed	+19
Feb 7	vs NYK	47%	115–116	L 98–102	✓correct	−3
Feb 5	at CHA	74%	124–114	W 119–113	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	at MIN	37%	113–118	W 127–120	✗missed	+12
Feb 1	at PHI	40%	113–117	L 94–105	✓correct	−7
Jan 30	at PHI	35%	111–117	W 119–109	✗missed	+16
Jan 28	vs CHI	37%	113–118	L 109–128	✓correct	−14
Jan 27	at MIA	40%	111–115	L 105–110	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs IND	47%	115–116	W 126–120	✗missed	+7
Jan 23	vs BOS	45%	113–115	W 113–98	✗missed	+17
Jan 21	at WAS	40%	115–119	L 118–138	✓correct	−16
Jan 20	vs NOP	37%	115–120	W 123–110	✗missed	+18
Jan 15	at DEN	32%	111–118	L 116–119	✓correct	+4
Jan 13	at UTA	28%	113–122	L 108–112	✓correct	+5
Jan 10	at POR	40%	115–119	W 109–106	✗missed	+7
Jan 9	at SAC	37%	117–122	L 111–136	✓correct	−20
Jan 7	at GSW	40%	112–116	W 115–101	✗missed	+18
Jan 5	vs MEM	35%	111–117	L 115–123	✓correct	−2
Jan 4	vs OKC	26%	111–121	W 126–115	✗missed	+21
Dec 30	vs WAS	26%	111–121	L 100–119	✓correct	−9
Dec 28	at DET	58%	119–116	L 101–121	✗missed	−23
Dec 27	vs LAL	55%	119–117	L 110–129	✗missed	−21
Dec 23	vs SAS	70%	118–110	W 133–113	✓correct	+12
Dec 21	at HOU	63%	114–109	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	at ATL	40%	111–115	L 125–126	✓correct	+3
Dec 18	at BOS	30%	108–116	W 95–92	✗missed	+11
Dec 16	at BOS	24%	109–120	W 117–109	✗missed	+19
Dec 14	vs ATL	42%	108–111	W 135–124	✗missed	+14
Dec 11	vs TOR	40%	106–110	W 111–99	✗missed	+16
Dec 9	vs TOR	32%	108–115	W 113–109	✗missed	+11
Dec 7	vs LAC	47%	110–111	W 116–111	✗missed	+6
Dec 5	vs MIL	30%	108–116	L 102–109	✓correct	+1
Dec 3	at TOR	20%	104–117	L 108–121	✓correct	±0
Dec 2	at CLE	19%	101–115	L 96–107	✓correct	+3
Nov 30	vs ATL	22%	106–118	L 108–125	✓correct	−5
Nov 28	at BKN	22%	104–116	L 102–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 27	vs PHI	40%	106–110	L 103–133	✓correct	−26
Nov 25	vs PHI	42%	110–113	L 99–107	✓correct	−5
Nov 21	at IND	32%	111–118	L 102–123	✓correct	−14
Nov 19	at IND	28%	109–118	L 113–114	✓correct	+8
Nov 18	at CHI	26%	105–115	W 108–107	✗missed	+11
Nov 16	vs MIN	40%	110–114	L 108–126	✓correct	−14
Nov 14	vs CHA	55%	107–105	L 105–112	✗missed	−9
Nov 11	vs PHX	32%	104–111	W 114–97	✗missed	+24
Nov 9	vs DAL	32%	104–111	W 94–87	✗missed	+14
Nov 7	vs HOU	65%	115–109	L 127–134	✗missed	−13
Nov 5	vs SAC	53%	114–113	L 123–126	✗missed	−4
Nov 3	vs GSW	28%	108–117	W 130–129	✗missed	+10
Nov 1	at OKC	40%	107–111	L 108–116	✓correct	−4
Oct 30	at DAL	24%	103–114	L 105–114	✓correct	+2
Oct 28	vs CHA	37%	112–117	W 113–93	✗missed	+25
Oct 26	at CLE	20%	105–118	L 92–103	✓correct	+2
Oct 24	at NYK	30%	106–114	L 102–115	✓correct	−5
Oct 22	vs BOS	35%	101–107	L 120–126	✓correct	±0
Oct 21	at ATL	24%	103–114	L 98–108	✓correct	+1
Oct 19	at DET	45%	108–110	L 109–113	✓correct	−2

Surprise games

All ORL surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected ORL wins

12%ORL beat CLE108–103Mar 16, 2024-25 · forecast CLE122–104 · missed margin by 23
17%ORL beat DET112–101Apr 19, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast DET117–103 · missed margin by 25
22%ORL beat NYK111–102Oct 25, 2026-27 · forecast NYK114–103 · missed margin by 20
24%ORL beat BOS117–109Dec 16, 2022-23 · forecast BOS120–109 · missed margin by 19
26%ORL beat TOR121–114Oct 30, 2026-27 · forecast TOR115–106 · missed margin by 16

Most unexpected ORL losses

19%IND beat ORL128–126Mar 23, 2025-26 · forecast ORL122–109 · missed margin by 15
22%SAS beat ORL114–112Dec 3, 2025-26 · forecast ORL123–112 · missed margin by 13
24%SAS beat ORL132–114Mar 14, 2022-23 · forecast ORL122–111 · missed margin by 29
29%WAS beat ORL120–112Jan 6, 2025-26 · forecast ORL121–113 · missed margin by 16
29%PHI beat ORL102–94Dec 6, 2024-25 · forecast ORL111–102 · missed margin by 17

Largest margin misses

53%TOR beat ORL139–87Mar 29, 2025-26 · forecast TOR117–116 · missed margin by 51
57%ORL beat CLE121–83Apr 25, 2023-24 · playoffs · forecast ORL107–106 · missed margin by 37
69%ORL beat PHI144–103Nov 25, 2025-26 · forecast ORL116–109 · missed margin by 34
64%CLE beat ORL122–82Feb 25, 2024-25 · forecast CLE118–112 · missed margin by 34
69%ORL beat MIL130–91Mar 8, 2025-26 · forecast ORL113–106 · missed margin by 32

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected ORL wins

Most unexpected ORL losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions