2024-25 · Playoffs · Final
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, June 5, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
IND 1–1@OKC 0–7 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | 104 | 111 | +7 |
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) | 116 | 110 | −6 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 12.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | IND | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1666 | 1768 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +172 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +2.5 | +12.3 |
| Games played this season | 96 | 99 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 116.9 | 112.8 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 115.0 | 106.9 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.9 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
| Playoff series state | 0 home series wins | |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingIND1666OKC1768
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
IND1666
- Ended last season at 1603 → started this one at 1577
- First 86 games: +68.6
- Last 10 games: +19.6
- W@CLE120–119+6.1
- LCLE104–126−18.9
- WCLE129–109+17.4
- W@CLE114–105+14.4
- W@NYK138–135+5.8
- W@NYK114–109+7.0
- LNYK100–106−12.5
- WNYK130–121+5.7
- L@NYK94–111−14.7
- WNYK125–108+9.3
OKC1768
- Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
- First 89 games: +155.4
- Last 10 games: −5.5
- L@DEN104–113−13.3
- W@DEN92–87+5.4
- WDEN112–105+3.2
- L@DEN107–119−15.4
- WDEN125–93+9.8
- WMIN114–88+11.0
- WMIN118–103+6.8
- L@MIN101–143−31.6
- W@MIN128–126+5.4
- WMIN124–94+13.2
Season scoring marginIND+2.5OKC+12.3
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
IND+2.5
Scores 117.2, allows 114.7 over 96 games: +2.5 a game.
OKC+12.3
Scores 119.7, allows 107.4 over 99 games: +12.3 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10IND116.9OKC112.8
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).
IND116.9scored, +3.3 vs league
| Factor | IND | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.3% | 54.3% | +3.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.5% | 12.0% | +0.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 18.9% | 25.3% | −2.8 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.250 | 0.193 | +1.6 | |
| Everything else | +0.8 |
OKC112.8scored, −0.9 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.9% | 54.3% | −2.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.7% | 12.0% | +1.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.3% | 25.3% | −0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.194 | 0.193 | +0.0 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Defensive rating, last 10IND115.0OKC106.9
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).
IND115.0allowed, +1.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.7% | 54.3% | +3.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.0% | 12.0% | +1.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.6% | 25.3% | −1.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.303 | 0.193 | −3.2 | |
| Everything else | −2.0 |
OKC106.9allowed, −6.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.0% | 54.3% | +5.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.2% | 12.0% | +3.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.0% | 25.3% | −1.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.214 | 0.193 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
Pace, last 10average 98.9
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
IND 98.8 and OKC 99.0 → average 98.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.4)
Rotation points missingIND0.0OKC0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
IND0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-06-05 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
OKC0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-06-05 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
RestIND5 daysOKC5 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
IND5days
Last played May 31 against NYK.
OKC5days
Last played May 28 against MIN (8 days, capped at 5).
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
IND
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | NYK | 125–108 | 46-85 | 17-33 | 16-19 | 12 | 6 | 127.6 | 110.2 | 98.0 |
| May 29 | @NYK | 94–111 | 30-74 | 10-30 | 24-29 | 20 | 8 | 96.9 | 113.3 | 97.5 |
| May 27 | NYK | 130–121 | 45-88 | 13-32 | 27-32 | 11 | 5 | 125.0 | 116.3 | 104.0 |
| May 25 | NYK | 100–106 | 34-77 | 5-25 | 27-33 | 12 | 6 | 105.3 | 111.6 | 95.0 |
| May 23 | @NYK | 114–109 | 43-83 | 13-30 | 15-21 | 10 | 7 | 123.9 | 121.1 | 91.0 |
| May 21 | @NYK | 138–135 | 51-100 | 15-37 | 21-28 | 7 | 11 | 129.0 | 126.2 | 96.9 |
| May 13 | @CLE | 114–105 | 41-82 | 15-35 | 17-22 | 13 | 5 | 114.0 | 105.0 | 100.0 |
| May 11 | CLE | 129–109 | 49-93 | 15-35 | 16-20 | 10 | 8 | 127.7 | 107.9 | 101.0 |
| May 9 | CLE | 104–126 | 35-80 | 9-30 | 25-34 | 13 | 4 | 101.0 | 121.2 | 103.5 |
| May 6 | @CLE | 120–119 | 44-85 | 11-28 | 21-29 | 17 | 11 | 118.8 | 116.7 | 101.5 |
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28 | MIN | 124–94 | 46-88 | 14-35 | 18-21 | 14 | 7 | 118.1 | 89.5 | 105.0 |
| May 26 | @MIN | 128–126 | 48-95 | 16-37 | 16-21 | 14 | 19 | 132.0 | 129.9 | 97.0 |
| May 24 | @MIN | 101–143 | 35-86 | 14-44 | 17-19 | 14 | 3 | 99.0 | 141.6 | 101.5 |
| May 22 | MIN | 118–103 | 45-90 | 9-33 | 19-24 | 6 | 9 | 122.9 | 107.3 | 96.0 |
| May 20 | MIN | 114–88 | 41-82 | 11-21 | 21-26 | 12 | 9 | 117.5 | 90.7 | 97.0 |
| May 18 | DEN | 125–93 | 47-96 | 12-39 | 19-24 | 9 | 15 | 126.3 | 92.1 | 100.0 |
| May 15 | @DEN | 107–119 | 43-92 | 11-40 | 10-16 | 11 | 7 | 103.9 | 115.5 | 103.0 |
| May 13 | DEN | 112–105 | 41-82 | 12-29 | 18-23 | 14 | 8 | 114.3 | 108.2 | 97.5 |
| May 11 | @DEN | 92–87 | 31-87 | 10-41 | 20-26 | 14 | 15 | 93.9 | 88.8 | 98.0 |
| May 9 | @DEN | 104–113 | 40-104 | 9-35 | 15-22 | 11 | 18 | 100.0 | 105.6 | 95.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | IND | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 111 | 110 |
| Field goals | 39–82 · 47.6% | 39–98 · 39.8% |
| Three-pointers | 18–39 · 46.2% | 11–30 · 36.7% |
| Free throws | 15–21 · 71.4% | 21–24 · 87.5% |
| Rebounds | 56 | 39 |
| Assists | 24 | 13 |
| Turnovers | 24 | 6 |
| Steals | 1 | 14 |
| Blocks | 7 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Oklahoma City Thunder
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (OKC) | +12 | −1 | −13 |
| Total points | 220 | 221 | +1 |
| IND points | 104 | 111 | +7 |
| OKC points | 116 | 110 | −6 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 2024-25 | IND at OKC | IND 111 – 132 OKC |
| Dec 26 2024-25 | OKC at IND | OKC 120 – 114 IND |
| Apr 5 2023-24 | OKC at IND | OKC 112 – 126 IND |
| Mar 12 2023-24 | IND at OKC | IND 121 – 111 OKC |
| Mar 31 2022-23 | OKC at IND | OKC 117 – 121 IND |