Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Brooklyn Nets BKN

2–8

2026-27 record

1313

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

106.4

Offensive rating

last 10 games

115.0

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

99.9

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded BKN game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 226 of 342 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of BKN's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. BKN ranks 29 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 11 8:00 PM ET

BKN Brooklyn Nets 2–8 –

@NOP New Orleans Pelicans 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 8:00 PM ET

BKN Brooklyn Nets 2–8 –

@MEM Memphis Grizzlies 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked BKN games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

11.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.6 to 16.7

−0.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -7.9 to 7.3

15.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

80%

winner picked

10 games involving BKN

2 / 2.8

actual / expected wins

gap −0.8

0.125

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BKN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at DAL	26%	109–118	L 93–130	✓correct	−28
Nov 7	at ATL	20%	109–121	L 121–124	✓correct	+9
Nov 4	vs CHA	39%	103–108	W 114–104	✗missed	+15
Nov 2	at NYK	20%	105–117	L 90–103	✓correct	−1
Nov 1	at IND	41%	116–119	W 98–90	✗missed	+11
Oct 30	vs DET	26%	108–117	L 94–110	✓correct	−7
Oct 27	at BOS	16%	106–120	L 124–125	✓correct	+13
Oct 25	vs IND	44%	116–118	L 109–136	✓correct	−25
Oct 24	at CLE	20%	106–118	L 121–125	✓correct	+8
Oct 21	vs CHA	26%	109–118	L 103–110	✓correct	+2

2025-26

Across 82 graded games, BKN finished an average of 2.9 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -5.9 to -0.1).

12.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.9 to 14.3; 23rd smallest of 30

−2.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -5.9 to -0.1

15.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

77%

winner picked

82 games involving BKN

20 / 26.5

actual / expected wins

gap −6.5

0.160

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BKN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at TOR	11%	102–120	L 101–136	✓correct	−17
Apr 10	at MIL	34%	110–116	L 108–125	✓correct	−11
Apr 9	vs IND	42%	112–115	L 94–123	✓correct	−26
Apr 7	vs MIL	47%	111–112	W 96–90	✗missed	+7
Apr 5	vs WAS	44%	114–116	W 121–115	✗missed	+8
Apr 3	vs ATL	20%	110–122	L 107–141	✓correct	−22
Mar 31	vs CHA	27%	108–117	L 86–117	✓correct	−22
Mar 29	vs SAC	44%	111–113	W 116–99	✗missed	+19
Mar 27	at LAL	20%	105–117	L 99–116	✓correct	−5
Mar 25	at GSW	20%	107–119	L 106–109	✓correct	+9
Mar 23	at POR	15%	105–120	L 99–134	✓correct	−20
Mar 22	at SAC	36%	111–116	L 122–126	✓correct	+1
Mar 20	vs NYK	15%	104–119	L 92–93	✓correct	+14
Mar 18	vs OKC	19%	103–116	L 92–121	✓correct	−16
Mar 16	vs POR	27%	107–116	L 95–114	✓correct	−10
Mar 14	at PHI	20%	108–120	L 97–104	✓correct	+5
Mar 12	at ATL	11%	107–125	L 97–108	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	vs DET	27%	108–117	L 100–138	✓correct	−29
Mar 9	vs MEM	39%	113–117	W 126–115	✗missed	+15
Mar 7	at DET	19%	104–117	W 107–105	✗missed	+15
Mar 5	at MIA	13%	106–123	L 110–126	✓correct	+1
Mar 3	at MIA	17%	108–122	L 98–124	✓correct	−12
Mar 1	vs CLE	22%	106–117	L 102–106	✓correct	+7
Feb 27	at BOS	17%	100–114	L 111–148	✓correct	−23
Feb 26	vs SAS	17%	111–125	L 110–126	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	vs DAL	42%	115–118	L 114–123	✓correct	−6
Feb 22	at ATL	26%	111–120	L 104–115	✓correct	−2
Feb 20	at OKC	20%	102–114	L 86–105	✓correct	−7
Feb 19	at CLE	17%	106–120	L 84–112	✓correct	−14
Feb 11	vs IND	56%	113–111	L 110–115	✗missed	−7
Feb 9	vs CHI	36%	109–114	W 123–115	✗missed	+13
Feb 7	vs WAS	59%	111–108	W 127–113	✓correct	+11
Feb 5	at ORL	29%	106–114	L 98–118	✓correct	−12
Feb 3	vs LAL	36%	109–114	L 109–125	✓correct	−11
Feb 1	at DET	15%	102–117	L 77–130	✓correct	−38
Jan 30	at UTA	39%	110–114	W 109–99	✗missed	+14
Jan 29	at DEN	14%	98–114	L 103–107	✓correct	+12
Jan 27	at PHX	24%	104–114	L 102–106	✓correct	+6
Jan 25	at LAC	15%	100–115	L 89–126	✓correct	−22
Jan 23	vs BOS	22%	106–117	L 126–130	✓correct	+7
Jan 21	at NYK	39%	110–114	L 66–120	✓correct	−50
Jan 19	vs PHX	24%	106–116	L 117–126	✓correct	+1
Jan 18	at CHI	39%	109–113	L 102–124	✓correct	−18
Jan 16	vs CHI	47%	112–113	W 112–109	✗missed	+4
Jan 14	at NOP	53%	114–113	L 113–116	✗missed	−4
Jan 12	at DAL	47%	110–111	L 105–113	✓correct	−7
Jan 11	at MEM	34%	110–116	L 98–103	✓correct	+1
Jan 9	vs LAC	47%	110–111	L 105–121	✓correct	−15
Jan 7	vs ORL	56%	113–111	L 103–104	✗missed	−3
Jan 4	vs DEN	47%	111–112	W 127–115	✗missed	+13
Jan 2	at WAS	44%	112–114	L 99–119	✓correct	−18
Jan 1	vs HOU	27%	104–113	L 96–120	✓correct	−15
Dec 29	vs GSW	47%	111–112	L 107–120	✓correct	−12
Dec 27	at MIN	29%	111–119	W 123–107	✗missed	+24
Dec 23	at PHI	39%	109–113	W 114–106	✗missed	+12
Dec 21	vs TOR	53%	110–109	W 96–81	✓correct	+14
Dec 18	vs MIA	47%	113–114	L 95–106	✓correct	−10
Dec 14	vs MIL	44%	110–112	W 127–82	✗missed	+47
Dec 12	at DAL	34%	110–116	L 111–119	✓correct	−2
Dec 6	vs NOP	61%	116–112	W 119–101	✓correct	+14
Dec 4	vs UTA	36%	112–117	L 110–123	✓correct	−8
Dec 3	at CHI	36%	114–119	W 113–103	✗missed	+15
Dec 1	vs CHA	56%	111–109	W 116–103	✓correct	+11
Nov 29	at MIL	24%	106–116	L 99–116	✓correct	−7
Nov 28	vs PHI	47%	111–112	L 103–115	✓correct	−11
Nov 24	vs NYK	36%	113–118	L 100–113	✓correct	−8
Nov 23	at TOR	20%	107–119	L 109–119	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at BOS	20%	105–117	W 113–105	✗missed	+20
Nov 18	vs BOS	24%	108–118	L 99–113	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	at WAS	53%	117–116	W 129–106	✓correct	+22
Nov 14	at ORL	24%	109–119	L 98–105	✓correct	+3
Nov 11	vs TOR	36%	116–121	L 109–119	✓correct	−5
Nov 9	at NYK	19%	107–120	L 98–134	✓correct	−23
Nov 7	vs DET	24%	110–120	L 107–125	✓correct	−8
Nov 5	at IND	31%	107–114	W 112–103	✗missed	+16
Nov 3	vs MIN	36%	115–120	L 109–125	✓correct	−11
Nov 2	vs PHI	42%	116–119	L 105–129	✓correct	−21
Oct 29	vs ATL	34%	115–121	L 112–117	✓correct	+1
Oct 27	at HOU	20%	103–115	L 109–137	✓correct	−16
Oct 26	at SAS	22%	109–120	L 107–118	✓correct	±0
Oct 24	vs CLE	27%	110–119	L 124–131	✓correct	+2
Oct 22	at CHA	53%	113–112	L 117–136	✗missed	−20

2024-25

10.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.3 to 12.4; 13th smallest of 30

−1.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.0 to 0.9

13.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

67%

winner picked

82 games involving BKN

26 / 30.1

actual / expected wins

gap −4.1

0.207

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BKN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	vs NYK	39%	108–113	L 105–113	✓correct	−3
Apr 11	at MIN	12%	103–121	L 91–117	✓correct	−8
Apr 10	vs ATL	36%	113–119	L 109–133	✓correct	−18
Apr 8	vs NOP	49%	107–108	W 119–114	✗missed	+6
Apr 6	vs TOR	36%	108–114	L 109–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 3	vs MIN	17%	104–120	L 90–105	✓correct	+1
Mar 31	at DAL	21%	109–121	W 113–109	✗missed	+16
Mar 29	at WAS	46%	114–115	W 115–112	✗missed	+4
Mar 28	vs LAC	21%	103–116	L 100–132	✓correct	−19
Mar 26	vs TOR	46%	107–109	L 86–116	✓correct	−28
Mar 24	vs DAL	41%	110–114	L 101–120	✓correct	−15
Mar 22	at IND	19%	106–119	L 103–108	✓correct	+8
Mar 20	at IND	23%	107–118	L 99–105	✓correct	+5
Mar 18	at BOS	19%	108–121	L 96–104	✓correct	+5
Mar 16	vs ATL	41%	111–115	W 122–114	✗missed	+12
Mar 15	vs BOS	21%	101–114	L 113–115	✓correct	+11
Mar 13	at CHI	36%	112–117	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Mar 11	at CLE	16%	107–122	L 104–109	✓correct	+10
Mar 10	vs LAL	32%	104–112	W 111–108	✗missed	+11
Mar 8	at CHA	59%	113–109	L 102–105	✗missed	−7
Mar 6	vs GSW	34%	107–114	L 119–121	✓correct	+5
Mar 4	at SAS	41%	110–113	L 113–127	✓correct	−11
Mar 1	at DET	25%	106–116	L 94–115	✓correct	−11
Feb 28	vs POR	44%	107–110	L 102–121	✓correct	−16
Feb 26	vs OKC	20%	100–114	L 121–129	✓correct	+6
Feb 24	at WAS	59%	109–105	L 99–107	✗missed	−12
Feb 22	at PHI	36%	103–108	W 105–103	✗missed	+7
Feb 20	vs CLE	23%	102–114	L 97–110	✓correct	−1
Feb 12	vs PHI	54%	108–107	W 100–96	✓correct	+3
Feb 10	vs CHA	69%	107–100	W 97–89	✓correct	+1
Feb 7	vs MIA	39%	106–111	W 102–86	✗missed	+21
Feb 5	vs WAS	71%	110–102	L 102–119	✗missed	−25
Feb 4	vs HOU	41%	106–110	W 99–97	✗missed	+6
Feb 1	at HOU	19%	104–117	W 110–98	✗missed	+25
Jan 29	at CHA	38%	103–107	W 104–83	✗missed	+25
Jan 27	vs SAC	32%	110–118	L 96–110	✓correct	−6
Jan 25	vs MIA	36%	107–113	L 97–106	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	vs PHX	29%	107–116	L 84–108	✓correct	−15
Jan 21	vs NYK	32%	107–115	L 95–99	✓correct	+4
Jan 19	at OKC	19%	108–121	L 101–127	✓correct	−13
Jan 17	at LAL	23%	106–117	L 101–102	✓correct	+10
Jan 15	at LAC	23%	105–116	L 67–126	✓correct	−48
Jan 14	at POR	38%	105–109	W 132–114	✗missed	+22
Jan 12	at UTA	38%	106–110	L 111–112	✓correct	+3
Jan 10	at DEN	23%	107–118	L 105–124	✓correct	−8
Jan 8	vs DET	44%	108–111	L 98–113	✓correct	−12
Jan 6	vs IND	34%	108–115	L 99–113	✓correct	−7
Jan 4	vs PHI	41%	107–111	L 94–123	✓correct	−25
Jan 2	at MIL	27%	107–116	W 113–110	✗missed	+12
Jan 1	at TOR	56%	114–111	L 113–130	✗missed	−20
Dec 29	at ORL	43%	108–110	L 101–102	✓correct	+1
Dec 27	vs SAS	41%	110–114	L 87–96	✓correct	−5
Dec 26	at MIL	27%	107–116	W 111–105	✗missed	+15
Dec 23	at MIA	25%	106–116	L 95–110	✓correct	−5
Dec 21	vs UTA	62%	113–109	L 94–105	✗missed	−15
Dec 19	at TOR	46%	113–114	W 101–94	✗missed	+8
Dec 16	vs CLE	23%	106–118	L 101–130	✓correct	−17
Dec 13	at MEM	19%	110–123	L 119–135	✓correct	−3
Dec 8	vs MIL	41%	110–114	L 113–118	✓correct	−1
Dec 4	vs IND	49%	116–117	W 99–90	✗missed	+10
Dec 2	at CHI	33%	117–123	L 102–128	✓correct	−20
Dec 1	vs ORL	36%	109–115	L 92–100	✓correct	−2
Nov 29	vs ORL	32%	108–116	L 100–123	✓correct	−15
Nov 27	at PHX	29%	107–115	W 127–117	✗missed	+18
Nov 25	at GSW	21%	106–118	W 128–120	✗missed	+20
Nov 24	at SAC	29%	106–114	W 108–103	✗missed	+13
Nov 22	at PHI	54%	109–107	L 98–113	✗missed	−17
Nov 19	vs CHA	64%	112–107	W 116–115	✓correct	−4
Nov 17	at NYK	27%	108–117	L 104–114	✓correct	−1
Nov 15	at NYK	29%	107–115	L 122–124	✓correct	+6
Nov 13	vs BOS	39%	105–110	L 114–139	✓correct	−20
Nov 11	at NOP	64%	115–109	W 107–105	✓correct	−4
Nov 9	at CLE	21%	109–121	L 100–105	✓correct	+7
Nov 8	at BOS	21%	106–118	L 104–108	✓correct	+8
Nov 4	vs MEM	64%	117–112	W 106–104	✓correct	−3
Nov 3	vs DET	71%	115–107	L 92–106	✗missed	−22
Nov 1	vs CHI	54%	116–115	W 120–112	✓correct	+7
Oct 30	at MEM	46%	113–114	W 119–106	✗missed	+14
Oct 29	vs DEN	49%	107–108	L 139–144	✓correct	−4
Oct 27	vs MIL	44%	109–112	W 115–102	✗missed	+16
Oct 25	at ORL	29%	104–112	L 101–116	✓correct	−7
Oct 23	at ATL	43%	110–112	L 116–120	✓correct	−2

2023-24

Across 82 graded games, BKN finished an average of 2.6 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -5.3 to -0.0).

11.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.8 to 13.1; 19th smallest of 30

−2.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -5.3 to -0.0

14.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

62%

winner picked

82 games involving BKN

32 / 40.5

actual / expected wins

gap −8.5

0.224

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BKN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at PHI	34%	104–110	L 86–107	✓correct	−15
Apr 12	at NYK	34%	103–109	L 107–111	✓correct	+2
Apr 10	vs TOR	72%	118–109	W 106–102	✓correct	−5
Apr 7	vs SAC	43%	107–113	L 77–107	✓correct	−24
Apr 6	vs DET	75%	115–104	W 113–103	✓correct	−1
Apr 3	vs IND	39%	110–118	W 115–111	✗missed	+12
Apr 1	at IND	35%	109–114	L 111–133	✓correct	−17
Mar 31	vs LAL	49%	110–113	L 104–116	✓correct	−9
Mar 29	vs CHI	43%	107–113	W 125–108	✗missed	+23
Mar 27	at WAS	53%	112–108	W 122–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 25	at TOR	61%	116–108	W 96–88	✓correct	±0
Mar 23	at NYK	39%	104–107	L 93–105	✓correct	−9
Mar 21	at MIL	37%	107–111	L 108–115	✓correct	−3
Mar 19	vs NOP	53%	111–112	L 91–104	✓correct	−12
Mar 17	at SAS	53%	115–111	L 115–122	✗missed	−11
Mar 16	at IND	43%	112–113	L 100–121	✓correct	−20
Mar 13	at ORL	43%	109–110	L 106–114	✓correct	−7
Mar 10	at CLE	43%	105–106	W 120–101	✗missed	+20
Mar 9	at CHA	43%	105–106	L 99–110	✓correct	−10
Mar 7	at DET	47%	110–109	L 112–118	✗missed	−7
Mar 5	vs PHI	53%	108–109	W 112–107	✗missed	+6
Mar 4	vs MEM	67%	109–103	L 102–106	✗missed	−10
Mar 2	vs ATL	59%	115–113	W 114–102	✓correct	+10
Feb 29	vs ATL	61%	116–113	W 124–97	✓correct	+24
Feb 27	at ORL	32%	107–114	L 81–108	✓correct	−20
Feb 26	at MEM	47%	113–112	W 111–86	✓correct	+24
Feb 24	at MIN	35%	111–116	L 86–101	✓correct	−10
Feb 22	at TOR	53%	119–115	L 93–121	✗missed	−32
Feb 14	at BOS	34%	113–119	L 86–136	✓correct	−44
Feb 13	vs BOS	43%	112–118	L 110–118	✓correct	−2
Feb 10	vs SAS	70%	119–111	W 123–103	✓correct	+12
Feb 8	vs CLE	49%	114–117	L 95–118	✓correct	−20
Feb 6	vs DAL	67%	120–114	L 107–119	✗missed	−18
Feb 5	vs GSW	59%	115–113	L 98–109	✗missed	−13
Feb 3	at PHI	43%	113–114	W 136–121	✗missed	+16
Jan 31	vs PHX	47%	109–113	L 120–136	✓correct	−12
Jan 29	vs UTA	49%	112–115	W 147–114	✗missed	+36
Jan 27	vs HOU	53%	111–112	W 106–104	✗missed	+3
Jan 25	vs MIN	47%	110–114	L 94–96	✓correct	+2
Jan 23	vs NYK	37%	104–113	L 103–108	✓correct	+4
Jan 21	at LAC	24%	106–118	L 114–125	✓correct	+1
Jan 19	at LAL	39%	113–116	W 130–112	✗missed	+21
Jan 17	at POR	53%	116–112	L 103–105	✗missed	−6
Jan 15	vs MIA	59%	117–115	L 95–96	✗missed	−3
Jan 11	at CLE	32%	113–120	L 102–111	✓correct	−2
Jan 7	vs POR	73%	121–111	L 127–134	✗missed	−17
Jan 5	vs OKC	45%	114–119	W 124–115	✗missed	+14
Jan 3	at HOU	32%	112–119	L 101–112	✓correct	−4
Jan 2	at NOP	34%	112–118	L 85–112	✓correct	−21
Dec 31	at OKC	34%	114–120	L 108–124	✓correct	−10
Dec 29	at WAS	59%	123–116	L 104–110	✗missed	−13
Dec 27	vs MIL	49%	116–119	L 122–144	✓correct	−19
Dec 26	at DET	57%	121–115	W 118–112	✓correct	±0
Dec 23	vs DET	79%	122–108	W 126–115	✓correct	−3
Dec 22	vs DEN	51%	115–117	L 117–122	✓correct	−3
Dec 20	vs NYK	57%	116–115	L 102–121	✗missed	−20
Dec 18	at UTA	55%	114–109	L 108–125	✗missed	−22
Dec 16	at GSW	39%	114–117	L 120–124	✓correct	−1
Dec 14	at DEN	39%	112–115	L 101–124	✓correct	−20
Dec 13	at PHX	37%	108–112	W 116–112	✗missed	+8
Dec 11	at SAC	39%	114–117	L 118–131	✓correct	−10
Dec 8	vs WAS	72%	122–113	W 124–97	✓correct	+18
Dec 6	at ATL	43%	120–121	W 114–113	✗missed	+2
Dec 2	vs ORL	57%	116–115	W 129–101	✓correct	+27
Nov 30	vs CHA	76%	118–106	L 128–129	✗missed	−13
Nov 28	vs TOR	57%	116–115	W 115–103	✓correct	+11
Nov 26	vs CHI	59%	112–110	W 118–109	✓correct	+7
Nov 25	vs MIA	63%	115–111	W 112–97	✓correct	+11
Nov 22	at ATL	39%	117–120	L 145–147	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	vs PHI	57%	114–113	L 99–121	✗missed	−23
Nov 16	at MIA	32%	110–117	L 115–122	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	vs ORL	67%	116–110	W 124–104	✓correct	+14
Nov 12	vs WAS	57%	118–117	W 102–94	✓correct	+7
Nov 10	at BOS	32%	107–114	L 107–121	✓correct	−7
Nov 8	vs LAC	53%	114–115	W 100–93	✗missed	+8
Nov 6	vs MIL	57%	115–114	L 125–129	✗missed	−5
Nov 4	vs BOS	59%	110–108	L 114–124	✗missed	−12
Nov 3	at CHI	39%	108–111	W 109–107	✗missed	+5
Nov 1	at MIA	47%	108–107	W 109–105	✓correct	+3
Oct 30	at CHA	53%	113–109	W 133–121	✓correct	+8
Oct 27	at DAL	49%	114–112	L 120–125	✗missed	−7
Oct 25	vs CLE	59%	110–108	L 113–114	✗missed	−3

2022-23

11.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.8 to 13.3; 26th smallest of 30

−0.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.6 to 1.8

15.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

57%

winner picked

86 games involving BKN

45 / 45.6

actual / expected wins

gap −0.6

0.237

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 86 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BKN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 22 PO	vs PHI	47%	103–104	L 88–96	✓correct	−7
Apr 20 PO	vs PHI	40%	104–108	L 97–102	✓correct	−1
Apr 17 PO	at PHI	28%	104–113	L 84–96	✓correct	−3
Apr 15 PO	at PHI	26%	104–114	L 101–121	✓correct	−10
Apr 9	vs PHI	55%	113–111	L 105–134	✗missed	−31
Apr 7	vs ORL	68%	118–111	W 101–84	✓correct	+10
Apr 5	at DET	65%	114–108	W 123–108	✓correct	+9
Apr 4	vs MIN	58%	115–112	L 102–107	✗missed	−8
Apr 2	vs UTA	60%	118–114	W 111–110	✓correct	−3
Mar 31	vs ATL	53%	118–117	W 124–107	✓correct	+16
Mar 29	vs HOU	87%	122–104	W 123–114	✓correct	−9
Mar 26	at ORL	63%	118–113	L 106–119	✗missed	−18
Mar 25	at MIA	35%	109–115	W 129–100	✗missed	+35
Mar 23	vs CLE	40%	107–111	L 114–116	✓correct	+2
Mar 21	vs CLE	35%	108–114	L 109–115	✓correct	±0
Mar 19	vs DEN	42%	114–117	L 102–108	✓correct	−3
Mar 16	vs SAC	53%	119–118	L 96–101	✗missed	−6
Mar 14	at OKC	47%	116–117	L 107–121	✓correct	−13
Mar 12	at DEN	40%	112–116	W 122–120	✗missed	+6
Mar 10	at MIN	45%	115–117	W 124–123	✗missed	+3
Mar 9	at MIL	26%	111–121	L 113–118	✓correct	+5
Mar 7	at HOU	68%	121–114	W 118–96	✓correct	+15
Mar 5	vs CHA	65%	116–110	W 102–86	✓correct	+10
Mar 3	at BOS	30%	111–119	W 115–105	✗missed	+18
Mar 1	at NYK	28%	108–117	L 118–142	✓correct	−15
Feb 28	vs MIL	35%	114–120	L 104–118	✓correct	−8
Feb 26	at ATL	42%	116–119	L 127–129	✓correct	+1
Feb 24	at CHI	65%	117–111	L 87–131	✗missed	−50
Feb 15	vs MIA	47%	110–111	W 116–105	✗missed	+12
Feb 13	at NYK	45%	113–115	L 106–124	✓correct	−16
Feb 11	vs PHI	55%	118–116	L 98–101	✗missed	−5
Feb 9	vs CHI	63%	120–115	W 116–105	✓correct	+6
Feb 7	vs PHX	55%	117–115	L 112–116	✗missed	−6
Feb 6	vs LAC	53%	118–117	L 116–124	✗missed	−9
Feb 4	vs WAS	55%	117–115	W 125–123	✓correct	±0
Feb 1	at BOS	32%	108–115	L 96–139	✓correct	−36
Jan 30	vs LAL	63%	117–112	W 121–104	✓correct	+12
Jan 28	vs NYK	60%	113–109	W 122–115	✓correct	+3
Jan 26	vs DET	70%	117–109	L 122–130	✗missed	−16
Jan 25	at PHI	32%	111–118	L 133–137	✓correct	+3
Jan 22	at GSW	47%	112–113	W 120–116	✗missed	+5
Jan 20	at UTA	40%	114–118	W 117–106	✗missed	+15
Jan 19	at PHX	63%	110–105	L 112–117	✗missed	−10
Jan 17	at SAS	63%	121–116	L 98–106	✗missed	−13
Jan 15	vs OKC	78%	122–110	L 102–112	✗missed	−22
Jan 12	vs BOS	72%	119–110	L 98–109	✗missed	−20
Jan 8	at MIA	60%	113–109	W 102–101	✓correct	−3
Jan 6	at NOP	40%	111–115	W 108–102	✗missed	+10
Jan 4	at CHI	63%	121–116	L 112–121	✗missed	−14
Jan 2	vs SAS	78%	119–107	W 139–103	✓correct	+24
Dec 31	at CHA	70%	123–115	W 123–106	✓correct	+9
Dec 28	at ATL	58%	119–116	W 108–107	✓correct	−2
Dec 26	at CLE	32%	109–116	W 125–117	✗missed	+15
Dec 23	vs MIL	60%	118–114	W 118–100	✓correct	+14
Dec 21	vs GSW	68%	122–115	W 143–113	✓correct	+23
Dec 18	at DET	72%	118–109	W 124–121	✓correct	−6
Dec 16	at TOR	60%	112–108	W 119–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 12	at WAS	65%	119–113	W 112–100	✓correct	+6
Dec 10	at IND	63%	121–116	W 136–133	✓correct	−2
Dec 9	vs ATL	60%	112–108	W 120–116	✓correct	±0
Dec 7	vs CHA	68%	113–106	W 122–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 4	vs BOS	47%	113–114	L 92–103	✓correct	−10
Dec 2	vs TOR	47%	111–112	W 114–105	✗missed	+10
Nov 30	vs WAS	55%	112–110	W 113–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 28	vs ORL	78%	116–104	W 109–102	✓correct	−5
Nov 27	vs POR	60%	112–108	W 111–97	✓correct	+10
Nov 25	at IND	63%	116–111	L 117–128	✗missed	−16
Nov 23	at TOR	42%	108–111	W 112–98	✗missed	+17
Nov 22	at PHI	65%	113–107	L 106–115	✗missed	−15
Nov 20	vs MEM	53%	113–112	W 127–115	✓correct	+11
Nov 17	at POR	55%	108–106	W 109–107	✓correct	±0
Nov 15	at SAC	60%	113–109	L 121–153	✗missed	−36
Nov 13	at LAL	65%	112–106	L 103–116	✗missed	−19
Nov 12	at LAC	45%	105–107	W 110–95	✗missed	+17
Nov 9	vs NYK	45%	108–110	W 112–85	✗missed	+29
Nov 7	at DAL	26%	102–112	L 94–96	✓correct	+8
Nov 5	at CHA	42%	110–113	W 98–94	✗missed	+7
Nov 4	at WAS	45%	110–112	W 128–86	✗missed	+44
Nov 1	vs CHI	53%	112–111	L 99–108	✗missed	−10
Oct 31	vs IND	60%	119–115	W 116–109	✓correct	+3
Oct 29	vs IND	63%	120–115	L 116–125	✗missed	−14
Oct 27	vs DAL	47%	109–110	L 125–129	✓correct	−3
Oct 26	at MIL	40%	106–110	L 99–110	✓correct	−7
Oct 24	at MEM	40%	110–114	L 124–134	✓correct	−6
Oct 21	vs TOR	47%	109–110	W 109–105	✗missed	+5
Oct 19	vs NOP	58%	113–110	L 108–130	✗missed	−25

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.8 to 12.4; 25th smallest of 30

−1.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.2 to -0.7

14.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

66%

winner picked

342 games involving BKN

125 / 145.5

actual / expected wins

gap −20.5

0.205

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 342 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	BKN win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at DAL	26%	109–118	L 93–130	✓correct	−28
Nov 7	at ATL	20%	109–121	L 121–124	✓correct	+9
Nov 4	vs CHA	39%	103–108	W 114–104	✗missed	+15
Nov 2	at NYK	20%	105–117	L 90–103	✓correct	−1
Nov 1	at IND	41%	116–119	W 98–90	✗missed	+11
Oct 30	vs DET	26%	108–117	L 94–110	✓correct	−7
Oct 27	at BOS	16%	106–120	L 124–125	✓correct	+13
Oct 25	vs IND	44%	116–118	L 109–136	✓correct	−25
Oct 24	at CLE	20%	106–118	L 121–125	✓correct	+8
Oct 21	vs CHA	26%	109–118	L 103–110	✓correct	+2
Apr 12	at TOR	11%	102–120	L 101–136	✓correct	−17
Apr 10	at MIL	34%	110–116	L 108–125	✓correct	−11
Apr 9	vs IND	42%	112–115	L 94–123	✓correct	−26
Apr 7	vs MIL	47%	111–112	W 96–90	✗missed	+7
Apr 5	vs WAS	44%	114–116	W 121–115	✗missed	+8
Apr 3	vs ATL	20%	110–122	L 107–141	✓correct	−22
Mar 31	vs CHA	27%	108–117	L 86–117	✓correct	−22
Mar 29	vs SAC	44%	111–113	W 116–99	✗missed	+19
Mar 27	at LAL	20%	105–117	L 99–116	✓correct	−5
Mar 25	at GSW	20%	107–119	L 106–109	✓correct	+9
Mar 23	at POR	15%	105–120	L 99–134	✓correct	−20
Mar 22	at SAC	36%	111–116	L 122–126	✓correct	+1
Mar 20	vs NYK	15%	104–119	L 92–93	✓correct	+14
Mar 18	vs OKC	19%	103–116	L 92–121	✓correct	−16
Mar 16	vs POR	27%	107–116	L 95–114	✓correct	−10
Mar 14	at PHI	20%	108–120	L 97–104	✓correct	+5
Mar 12	at ATL	11%	107–125	L 97–108	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	vs DET	27%	108–117	L 100–138	✓correct	−29
Mar 9	vs MEM	39%	113–117	W 126–115	✗missed	+15
Mar 7	at DET	19%	104–117	W 107–105	✗missed	+15
Mar 5	at MIA	13%	106–123	L 110–126	✓correct	+1
Mar 3	at MIA	17%	108–122	L 98–124	✓correct	−12
Mar 1	vs CLE	22%	106–117	L 102–106	✓correct	+7
Feb 27	at BOS	17%	100–114	L 111–148	✓correct	−23
Feb 26	vs SAS	17%	111–125	L 110–126	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	vs DAL	42%	115–118	L 114–123	✓correct	−6
Feb 22	at ATL	26%	111–120	L 104–115	✓correct	−2
Feb 20	at OKC	20%	102–114	L 86–105	✓correct	−7
Feb 19	at CLE	17%	106–120	L 84–112	✓correct	−14
Feb 11	vs IND	56%	113–111	L 110–115	✗missed	−7
Feb 9	vs CHI	36%	109–114	W 123–115	✗missed	+13
Feb 7	vs WAS	59%	111–108	W 127–113	✓correct	+11
Feb 5	at ORL	29%	106–114	L 98–118	✓correct	−12
Feb 3	vs LAL	36%	109–114	L 109–125	✓correct	−11
Feb 1	at DET	15%	102–117	L 77–130	✓correct	−38
Jan 30	at UTA	39%	110–114	W 109–99	✗missed	+14
Jan 29	at DEN	14%	98–114	L 103–107	✓correct	+12
Jan 27	at PHX	24%	104–114	L 102–106	✓correct	+6
Jan 25	at LAC	15%	100–115	L 89–126	✓correct	−22
Jan 23	vs BOS	22%	106–117	L 126–130	✓correct	+7
Jan 21	at NYK	39%	110–114	L 66–120	✓correct	−50
Jan 19	vs PHX	24%	106–116	L 117–126	✓correct	+1
Jan 18	at CHI	39%	109–113	L 102–124	✓correct	−18
Jan 16	vs CHI	47%	112–113	W 112–109	✗missed	+4
Jan 14	at NOP	53%	114–113	L 113–116	✗missed	−4
Jan 12	at DAL	47%	110–111	L 105–113	✓correct	−7
Jan 11	at MEM	34%	110–116	L 98–103	✓correct	+1
Jan 9	vs LAC	47%	110–111	L 105–121	✓correct	−15
Jan 7	vs ORL	56%	113–111	L 103–104	✗missed	−3
Jan 4	vs DEN	47%	111–112	W 127–115	✗missed	+13
Jan 2	at WAS	44%	112–114	L 99–119	✓correct	−18
Jan 1	vs HOU	27%	104–113	L 96–120	✓correct	−15
Dec 29	vs GSW	47%	111–112	L 107–120	✓correct	−12
Dec 27	at MIN	29%	111–119	W 123–107	✗missed	+24
Dec 23	at PHI	39%	109–113	W 114–106	✗missed	+12
Dec 21	vs TOR	53%	110–109	W 96–81	✓correct	+14
Dec 18	vs MIA	47%	113–114	L 95–106	✓correct	−10
Dec 14	vs MIL	44%	110–112	W 127–82	✗missed	+47
Dec 12	at DAL	34%	110–116	L 111–119	✓correct	−2
Dec 6	vs NOP	61%	116–112	W 119–101	✓correct	+14
Dec 4	vs UTA	36%	112–117	L 110–123	✓correct	−8
Dec 3	at CHI	36%	114–119	W 113–103	✗missed	+15
Dec 1	vs CHA	56%	111–109	W 116–103	✓correct	+11
Nov 29	at MIL	24%	106–116	L 99–116	✓correct	−7
Nov 28	vs PHI	47%	111–112	L 103–115	✓correct	−11
Nov 24	vs NYK	36%	113–118	L 100–113	✓correct	−8
Nov 23	at TOR	20%	107–119	L 109–119	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at BOS	20%	105–117	W 113–105	✗missed	+20
Nov 18	vs BOS	24%	108–118	L 99–113	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	at WAS	53%	117–116	W 129–106	✓correct	+22
Nov 14	at ORL	24%	109–119	L 98–105	✓correct	+3
Nov 11	vs TOR	36%	116–121	L 109–119	✓correct	−5
Nov 9	at NYK	19%	107–120	L 98–134	✓correct	−23
Nov 7	vs DET	24%	110–120	L 107–125	✓correct	−8
Nov 5	at IND	31%	107–114	W 112–103	✗missed	+16
Nov 3	vs MIN	36%	115–120	L 109–125	✓correct	−11
Nov 2	vs PHI	42%	116–119	L 105–129	✓correct	−21
Oct 29	vs ATL	34%	115–121	L 112–117	✓correct	+1
Oct 27	at HOU	20%	103–115	L 109–137	✓correct	−16
Oct 26	at SAS	22%	109–120	L 107–118	✓correct	±0
Oct 24	vs CLE	27%	110–119	L 124–131	✓correct	+2
Oct 22	at CHA	53%	113–112	L 117–136	✗missed	−20
Apr 13	vs NYK	39%	108–113	L 105–113	✓correct	−3
Apr 11	at MIN	12%	103–121	L 91–117	✓correct	−8
Apr 10	vs ATL	36%	113–119	L 109–133	✓correct	−18
Apr 8	vs NOP	49%	107–108	W 119–114	✗missed	+6
Apr 6	vs TOR	36%	108–114	L 109–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 3	vs MIN	17%	104–120	L 90–105	✓correct	+1
Mar 31	at DAL	21%	109–121	W 113–109	✗missed	+16
Mar 29	at WAS	46%	114–115	W 115–112	✗missed	+4
Mar 28	vs LAC	21%	103–116	L 100–132	✓correct	−19
Mar 26	vs TOR	46%	107–109	L 86–116	✓correct	−28
Mar 24	vs DAL	41%	110–114	L 101–120	✓correct	−15
Mar 22	at IND	19%	106–119	L 103–108	✓correct	+8
Mar 20	at IND	23%	107–118	L 99–105	✓correct	+5
Mar 18	at BOS	19%	108–121	L 96–104	✓correct	+5
Mar 16	vs ATL	41%	111–115	W 122–114	✗missed	+12
Mar 15	vs BOS	21%	101–114	L 113–115	✓correct	+11
Mar 13	at CHI	36%	112–117	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Mar 11	at CLE	16%	107–122	L 104–109	✓correct	+10
Mar 10	vs LAL	32%	104–112	W 111–108	✗missed	+11
Mar 8	at CHA	59%	113–109	L 102–105	✗missed	−7
Mar 6	vs GSW	34%	107–114	L 119–121	✓correct	+5
Mar 4	at SAS	41%	110–113	L 113–127	✓correct	−11
Mar 1	at DET	25%	106–116	L 94–115	✓correct	−11
Feb 28	vs POR	44%	107–110	L 102–121	✓correct	−16
Feb 26	vs OKC	20%	100–114	L 121–129	✓correct	+6
Feb 24	at WAS	59%	109–105	L 99–107	✗missed	−12
Feb 22	at PHI	36%	103–108	W 105–103	✗missed	+7
Feb 20	vs CLE	23%	102–114	L 97–110	✓correct	−1
Feb 12	vs PHI	54%	108–107	W 100–96	✓correct	+3
Feb 10	vs CHA	69%	107–100	W 97–89	✓correct	+1
Feb 7	vs MIA	39%	106–111	W 102–86	✗missed	+21
Feb 5	vs WAS	71%	110–102	L 102–119	✗missed	−25
Feb 4	vs HOU	41%	106–110	W 99–97	✗missed	+6
Feb 1	at HOU	19%	104–117	W 110–98	✗missed	+25
Jan 29	at CHA	38%	103–107	W 104–83	✗missed	+25
Jan 27	vs SAC	32%	110–118	L 96–110	✓correct	−6
Jan 25	vs MIA	36%	107–113	L 97–106	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	vs PHX	29%	107–116	L 84–108	✓correct	−15
Jan 21	vs NYK	32%	107–115	L 95–99	✓correct	+4
Jan 19	at OKC	19%	108–121	L 101–127	✓correct	−13
Jan 17	at LAL	23%	106–117	L 101–102	✓correct	+10
Jan 15	at LAC	23%	105–116	L 67–126	✓correct	−48
Jan 14	at POR	38%	105–109	W 132–114	✗missed	+22
Jan 12	at UTA	38%	106–110	L 111–112	✓correct	+3
Jan 10	at DEN	23%	107–118	L 105–124	✓correct	−8
Jan 8	vs DET	44%	108–111	L 98–113	✓correct	−12
Jan 6	vs IND	34%	108–115	L 99–113	✓correct	−7
Jan 4	vs PHI	41%	107–111	L 94–123	✓correct	−25
Jan 2	at MIL	27%	107–116	W 113–110	✗missed	+12
Jan 1	at TOR	56%	114–111	L 113–130	✗missed	−20
Dec 29	at ORL	43%	108–110	L 101–102	✓correct	+1
Dec 27	vs SAS	41%	110–114	L 87–96	✓correct	−5
Dec 26	at MIL	27%	107–116	W 111–105	✗missed	+15
Dec 23	at MIA	25%	106–116	L 95–110	✓correct	−5
Dec 21	vs UTA	62%	113–109	L 94–105	✗missed	−15
Dec 19	at TOR	46%	113–114	W 101–94	✗missed	+8
Dec 16	vs CLE	23%	106–118	L 101–130	✓correct	−17
Dec 13	at MEM	19%	110–123	L 119–135	✓correct	−3
Dec 8	vs MIL	41%	110–114	L 113–118	✓correct	−1
Dec 4	vs IND	49%	116–117	W 99–90	✗missed	+10
Dec 2	at CHI	33%	117–123	L 102–128	✓correct	−20
Dec 1	vs ORL	36%	109–115	L 92–100	✓correct	−2
Nov 29	vs ORL	32%	108–116	L 100–123	✓correct	−15
Nov 27	at PHX	29%	107–115	W 127–117	✗missed	+18
Nov 25	at GSW	21%	106–118	W 128–120	✗missed	+20
Nov 24	at SAC	29%	106–114	W 108–103	✗missed	+13
Nov 22	at PHI	54%	109–107	L 98–113	✗missed	−17
Nov 19	vs CHA	64%	112–107	W 116–115	✓correct	−4
Nov 17	at NYK	27%	108–117	L 104–114	✓correct	−1
Nov 15	at NYK	29%	107–115	L 122–124	✓correct	+6
Nov 13	vs BOS	39%	105–110	L 114–139	✓correct	−20
Nov 11	at NOP	64%	115–109	W 107–105	✓correct	−4
Nov 9	at CLE	21%	109–121	L 100–105	✓correct	+7
Nov 8	at BOS	21%	106–118	L 104–108	✓correct	+8
Nov 4	vs MEM	64%	117–112	W 106–104	✓correct	−3
Nov 3	vs DET	71%	115–107	L 92–106	✗missed	−22
Nov 1	vs CHI	54%	116–115	W 120–112	✓correct	+7
Oct 30	at MEM	46%	113–114	W 119–106	✗missed	+14
Oct 29	vs DEN	49%	107–108	L 139–144	✓correct	−4
Oct 27	vs MIL	44%	109–112	W 115–102	✗missed	+16
Oct 25	at ORL	29%	104–112	L 101–116	✓correct	−7
Oct 23	at ATL	43%	110–112	L 116–120	✓correct	−2
Apr 14	at PHI	34%	104–110	L 86–107	✓correct	−15
Apr 12	at NYK	34%	103–109	L 107–111	✓correct	+2
Apr 10	vs TOR	72%	118–109	W 106–102	✓correct	−5
Apr 7	vs SAC	43%	107–113	L 77–107	✓correct	−24
Apr 6	vs DET	75%	115–104	W 113–103	✓correct	−1
Apr 3	vs IND	39%	110–118	W 115–111	✗missed	+12
Apr 1	at IND	35%	109–114	L 111–133	✓correct	−17
Mar 31	vs LAL	49%	110–113	L 104–116	✓correct	−9
Mar 29	vs CHI	43%	107–113	W 125–108	✗missed	+23
Mar 27	at WAS	53%	112–108	W 122–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 25	at TOR	61%	116–108	W 96–88	✓correct	±0
Mar 23	at NYK	39%	104–107	L 93–105	✓correct	−9
Mar 21	at MIL	37%	107–111	L 108–115	✓correct	−3
Mar 19	vs NOP	53%	111–112	L 91–104	✓correct	−12
Mar 17	at SAS	53%	115–111	L 115–122	✗missed	−11
Mar 16	at IND	43%	112–113	L 100–121	✓correct	−20
Mar 13	at ORL	43%	109–110	L 106–114	✓correct	−7
Mar 10	at CLE	43%	105–106	W 120–101	✗missed	+20
Mar 9	at CHA	43%	105–106	L 99–110	✓correct	−10
Mar 7	at DET	47%	110–109	L 112–118	✗missed	−7
Mar 5	vs PHI	53%	108–109	W 112–107	✗missed	+6
Mar 4	vs MEM	67%	109–103	L 102–106	✗missed	−10
Mar 2	vs ATL	59%	115–113	W 114–102	✓correct	+10
Feb 29	vs ATL	61%	116–113	W 124–97	✓correct	+24
Feb 27	at ORL	32%	107–114	L 81–108	✓correct	−20
Feb 26	at MEM	47%	113–112	W 111–86	✓correct	+24
Feb 24	at MIN	35%	111–116	L 86–101	✓correct	−10
Feb 22	at TOR	53%	119–115	L 93–121	✗missed	−32
Feb 14	at BOS	34%	113–119	L 86–136	✓correct	−44
Feb 13	vs BOS	43%	112–118	L 110–118	✓correct	−2
Feb 10	vs SAS	70%	119–111	W 123–103	✓correct	+12
Feb 8	vs CLE	49%	114–117	L 95–118	✓correct	−20
Feb 6	vs DAL	67%	120–114	L 107–119	✗missed	−18
Feb 5	vs GSW	59%	115–113	L 98–109	✗missed	−13
Feb 3	at PHI	43%	113–114	W 136–121	✗missed	+16
Jan 31	vs PHX	47%	109–113	L 120–136	✓correct	−12
Jan 29	vs UTA	49%	112–115	W 147–114	✗missed	+36
Jan 27	vs HOU	53%	111–112	W 106–104	✗missed	+3
Jan 25	vs MIN	47%	110–114	L 94–96	✓correct	+2
Jan 23	vs NYK	37%	104–113	L 103–108	✓correct	+4
Jan 21	at LAC	24%	106–118	L 114–125	✓correct	+1
Jan 19	at LAL	39%	113–116	W 130–112	✗missed	+21
Jan 17	at POR	53%	116–112	L 103–105	✗missed	−6
Jan 15	vs MIA	59%	117–115	L 95–96	✗missed	−3
Jan 11	at CLE	32%	113–120	L 102–111	✓correct	−2
Jan 7	vs POR	73%	121–111	L 127–134	✗missed	−17
Jan 5	vs OKC	45%	114–119	W 124–115	✗missed	+14
Jan 3	at HOU	32%	112–119	L 101–112	✓correct	−4
Jan 2	at NOP	34%	112–118	L 85–112	✓correct	−21
Dec 31	at OKC	34%	114–120	L 108–124	✓correct	−10
Dec 29	at WAS	59%	123–116	L 104–110	✗missed	−13
Dec 27	vs MIL	49%	116–119	L 122–144	✓correct	−19
Dec 26	at DET	57%	121–115	W 118–112	✓correct	±0
Dec 23	vs DET	79%	122–108	W 126–115	✓correct	−3
Dec 22	vs DEN	51%	115–117	L 117–122	✓correct	−3
Dec 20	vs NYK	57%	116–115	L 102–121	✗missed	−20
Dec 18	at UTA	55%	114–109	L 108–125	✗missed	−22
Dec 16	at GSW	39%	114–117	L 120–124	✓correct	−1
Dec 14	at DEN	39%	112–115	L 101–124	✓correct	−20
Dec 13	at PHX	37%	108–112	W 116–112	✗missed	+8
Dec 11	at SAC	39%	114–117	L 118–131	✓correct	−10
Dec 8	vs WAS	72%	122–113	W 124–97	✓correct	+18
Dec 6	at ATL	43%	120–121	W 114–113	✗missed	+2
Dec 2	vs ORL	57%	116–115	W 129–101	✓correct	+27
Nov 30	vs CHA	76%	118–106	L 128–129	✗missed	−13
Nov 28	vs TOR	57%	116–115	W 115–103	✓correct	+11
Nov 26	vs CHI	59%	112–110	W 118–109	✓correct	+7
Nov 25	vs MIA	63%	115–111	W 112–97	✓correct	+11
Nov 22	at ATL	39%	117–120	L 145–147	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	vs PHI	57%	114–113	L 99–121	✗missed	−23
Nov 16	at MIA	32%	110–117	L 115–122	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	vs ORL	67%	116–110	W 124–104	✓correct	+14
Nov 12	vs WAS	57%	118–117	W 102–94	✓correct	+7
Nov 10	at BOS	32%	107–114	L 107–121	✓correct	−7
Nov 8	vs LAC	53%	114–115	W 100–93	✗missed	+8
Nov 6	vs MIL	57%	115–114	L 125–129	✗missed	−5
Nov 4	vs BOS	59%	110–108	L 114–124	✗missed	−12
Nov 3	at CHI	39%	108–111	W 109–107	✗missed	+5
Nov 1	at MIA	47%	108–107	W 109–105	✓correct	+3
Oct 30	at CHA	53%	113–109	W 133–121	✓correct	+8
Oct 27	at DAL	49%	114–112	L 120–125	✗missed	−7
Oct 25	vs CLE	59%	110–108	L 113–114	✗missed	−3
Apr 22 PO	vs PHI	47%	103–104	L 88–96	✓correct	−7
Apr 20 PO	vs PHI	40%	104–108	L 97–102	✓correct	−1
Apr 17 PO	at PHI	28%	104–113	L 84–96	✓correct	−3
Apr 15 PO	at PHI	26%	104–114	L 101–121	✓correct	−10
Apr 9	vs PHI	55%	113–111	L 105–134	✗missed	−31
Apr 7	vs ORL	68%	118–111	W 101–84	✓correct	+10
Apr 5	at DET	65%	114–108	W 123–108	✓correct	+9
Apr 4	vs MIN	58%	115–112	L 102–107	✗missed	−8
Apr 2	vs UTA	60%	118–114	W 111–110	✓correct	−3
Mar 31	vs ATL	53%	118–117	W 124–107	✓correct	+16
Mar 29	vs HOU	87%	122–104	W 123–114	✓correct	−9
Mar 26	at ORL	63%	118–113	L 106–119	✗missed	−18
Mar 25	at MIA	35%	109–115	W 129–100	✗missed	+35
Mar 23	vs CLE	40%	107–111	L 114–116	✓correct	+2
Mar 21	vs CLE	35%	108–114	L 109–115	✓correct	±0
Mar 19	vs DEN	42%	114–117	L 102–108	✓correct	−3
Mar 16	vs SAC	53%	119–118	L 96–101	✗missed	−6
Mar 14	at OKC	47%	116–117	L 107–121	✓correct	−13
Mar 12	at DEN	40%	112–116	W 122–120	✗missed	+6
Mar 10	at MIN	45%	115–117	W 124–123	✗missed	+3
Mar 9	at MIL	26%	111–121	L 113–118	✓correct	+5
Mar 7	at HOU	68%	121–114	W 118–96	✓correct	+15
Mar 5	vs CHA	65%	116–110	W 102–86	✓correct	+10
Mar 3	at BOS	30%	111–119	W 115–105	✗missed	+18
Mar 1	at NYK	28%	108–117	L 118–142	✓correct	−15
Feb 28	vs MIL	35%	114–120	L 104–118	✓correct	−8
Feb 26	at ATL	42%	116–119	L 127–129	✓correct	+1
Feb 24	at CHI	65%	117–111	L 87–131	✗missed	−50
Feb 15	vs MIA	47%	110–111	W 116–105	✗missed	+12
Feb 13	at NYK	45%	113–115	L 106–124	✓correct	−16
Feb 11	vs PHI	55%	118–116	L 98–101	✗missed	−5
Feb 9	vs CHI	63%	120–115	W 116–105	✓correct	+6
Feb 7	vs PHX	55%	117–115	L 112–116	✗missed	−6
Feb 6	vs LAC	53%	118–117	L 116–124	✗missed	−9
Feb 4	vs WAS	55%	117–115	W 125–123	✓correct	±0
Feb 1	at BOS	32%	108–115	L 96–139	✓correct	−36
Jan 30	vs LAL	63%	117–112	W 121–104	✓correct	+12
Jan 28	vs NYK	60%	113–109	W 122–115	✓correct	+3
Jan 26	vs DET	70%	117–109	L 122–130	✗missed	−16
Jan 25	at PHI	32%	111–118	L 133–137	✓correct	+3
Jan 22	at GSW	47%	112–113	W 120–116	✗missed	+5
Jan 20	at UTA	40%	114–118	W 117–106	✗missed	+15
Jan 19	at PHX	63%	110–105	L 112–117	✗missed	−10
Jan 17	at SAS	63%	121–116	L 98–106	✗missed	−13
Jan 15	vs OKC	78%	122–110	L 102–112	✗missed	−22
Jan 12	vs BOS	72%	119–110	L 98–109	✗missed	−20
Jan 8	at MIA	60%	113–109	W 102–101	✓correct	−3
Jan 6	at NOP	40%	111–115	W 108–102	✗missed	+10
Jan 4	at CHI	63%	121–116	L 112–121	✗missed	−14
Jan 2	vs SAS	78%	119–107	W 139–103	✓correct	+24
Dec 31	at CHA	70%	123–115	W 123–106	✓correct	+9
Dec 28	at ATL	58%	119–116	W 108–107	✓correct	−2
Dec 26	at CLE	32%	109–116	W 125–117	✗missed	+15
Dec 23	vs MIL	60%	118–114	W 118–100	✓correct	+14
Dec 21	vs GSW	68%	122–115	W 143–113	✓correct	+23
Dec 18	at DET	72%	118–109	W 124–121	✓correct	−6
Dec 16	at TOR	60%	112–108	W 119–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 12	at WAS	65%	119–113	W 112–100	✓correct	+6
Dec 10	at IND	63%	121–116	W 136–133	✓correct	−2
Dec 9	vs ATL	60%	112–108	W 120–116	✓correct	±0
Dec 7	vs CHA	68%	113–106	W 122–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 4	vs BOS	47%	113–114	L 92–103	✓correct	−10
Dec 2	vs TOR	47%	111–112	W 114–105	✗missed	+10
Nov 30	vs WAS	55%	112–110	W 113–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 28	vs ORL	78%	116–104	W 109–102	✓correct	−5
Nov 27	vs POR	60%	112–108	W 111–97	✓correct	+10
Nov 25	at IND	63%	116–111	L 117–128	✗missed	−16
Nov 23	at TOR	42%	108–111	W 112–98	✗missed	+17
Nov 22	at PHI	65%	113–107	L 106–115	✗missed	−15
Nov 20	vs MEM	53%	113–112	W 127–115	✓correct	+11
Nov 17	at POR	55%	108–106	W 109–107	✓correct	±0
Nov 15	at SAC	60%	113–109	L 121–153	✗missed	−36
Nov 13	at LAL	65%	112–106	L 103–116	✗missed	−19
Nov 12	at LAC	45%	105–107	W 110–95	✗missed	+17
Nov 9	vs NYK	45%	108–110	W 112–85	✗missed	+29
Nov 7	at DAL	26%	102–112	L 94–96	✓correct	+8
Nov 5	at CHA	42%	110–113	W 98–94	✗missed	+7
Nov 4	at WAS	45%	110–112	W 128–86	✗missed	+44
Nov 1	vs CHI	53%	112–111	L 99–108	✗missed	−10
Oct 31	vs IND	60%	119–115	W 116–109	✓correct	+3
Oct 29	vs IND	63%	120–115	L 116–125	✗missed	−14
Oct 27	vs DAL	47%	109–110	L 125–129	✓correct	−3
Oct 26	at MIL	40%	106–110	L 99–110	✓correct	−7
Oct 24	at MEM	40%	110–114	L 124–134	✓correct	−6
Oct 21	vs TOR	47%	109–110	W 109–105	✗missed	+5
Oct 19	vs NOP	58%	113–110	L 108–130	✗missed	−25

Surprise games

All BKN surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected BKN wins

19%BKN beat DET107–105Mar 7, 2025-26 · forecast DET117–104 · missed margin by 15
19%BKN beat HOU110–98Feb 1, 2024-25 · forecast HOU117–104 · missed margin by 25
20%BKN beat BOS113–105Nov 21, 2025-26 · forecast BOS117–105 · missed margin by 20
21%BKN beat DAL113–109Mar 31, 2024-25 · forecast DAL121–109 · missed margin by 16
21%BKN beat GSW128–120Nov 25, 2024-25 · forecast GSW118–106 · missed margin by 20

Most unexpected BKN losses

22%OKC beat BKN112–102Jan 15, 2022-23 · forecast BKN122–110 · missed margin by 22
24%CHA beat BKN129–128Nov 30, 2023-24 · forecast BKN118–106 · missed margin by 13
27%POR beat BKN134–127Jan 7, 2023-24 · forecast BKN121–111 · missed margin by 17
28%BOS beat BKN109–98Jan 12, 2022-23 · forecast BKN119–110 · missed margin by 20
29%WAS beat BKN119–102Feb 5, 2024-25 · forecast BKN110–102 · missed margin by 25

Largest margin misses

61%NYK beat BKN120–66Jan 21, 2025-26 · forecast NYK114–110 · missed margin by 50
35%CHI beat BKN131–87Feb 24, 2022-23 · forecast BKN117–111 · missed margin by 50
77%LAC beat BKN126–67Jan 15, 2024-25 · forecast LAC116–105 · missed margin by 48
44%BKN beat MIL127–82Dec 14, 2025-26 · forecast MIL112–110 · missed margin by 47
67%BOS beat BKN136–86Feb 14, 2023-24 · forecast BOS119–113 · missed margin by 44

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected BKN wins

Most unexpected BKN losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions