2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Sunday, November 10, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 1–1@OKC 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	110	127	+17
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	120	116	−4

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1626	1677
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+122
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+6.8	+11.0
Games played this season	9	9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	118.7	113.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	107.4	99.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1626OKC1677

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1626

Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
This season's 9 games: +35.6

W@POR140–104+11.8
W@UTA127–86+15.2
LLAC104–112−15.5
WNOP124–106+8.1
WNOP104–89+6.6
W@HOU127–121+7.0
W@WAS125–112+4.6
W@BOS118–112+12.4
L@CLE117–136−14.6

OKC1677

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
This season's 9 games: +59.5

W@DEN102–87+16.8
W@CHI114–95+11.8
WATL128–104+6.1
WSAS105–93+2.8
W@POR137–114+6.7
W@LAC105–92+8.9
WORL102–86+5.1
L@DEN122–124−5.1
WHOU126–107+6.4

Season scoring marginGSW+6.8OKC+11.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+6.8

Scores 120.7, allows 108.7 over 9 games: +12.0 a game.

45% this season (+12.0) + 55% last season (+2.6) = +6.8

OKC+11.0

Scores 115.7, allows 100.2 over 9 games: +15.4 a game.

45% this season (+15.4) + 55% last season (+7.3) = +11.0

Offensive rating, last 10GSW118.7OKC113.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

GSW118.7scored, +6.0 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.0%	53.9%	+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.3%	+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.8%	24.6%	+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.205	−0.5
Everything else			−0.5

OKC113.3scored, +0.6 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	53.9%	+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.1%	12.3%	+3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.1%	24.6%	−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.162	0.205	−1.3
Everything else			+0.6

Defensive rating, last 10GSW107.4OKC99.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

GSW107.4allowed, −5.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	53.9%	+4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.1%	12.3%	+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.5%	24.6%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.197	0.205	+0.3
Everything else			−0.4

OKC99.9allowed, −12.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	48.4%	53.9%	+8.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	16.3%	12.3%	+5.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.1%	24.6%	−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.205	−0.1
Everything else			−0.0

Pace, last 10average 101.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 100.8 and OKC 102.3 → average 101.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-10 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-10 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysOKC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Nov 8 against CLE.

OKC2days

Last played Nov 8 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 8	@CLE	117–136	47-98	13-42	10-14	17	11	109.3	127.1	107.0
Nov 6	@BOS	118–112	42-91	14-34	20-24	11	15	122.9	116.7	96.0
Nov 4	@WAS	125–112	44-97	12-37	25-34	6	16	120.2	108.7	103.5
Nov 2	@HOU	127–121	40-78	15-32	32-50	14	9	118.7	113.1	96.9
Oct 30	NOP	104–89	41-87	13-38	9-13	13	13	111.8	94.7	93.5
Oct 29	NOP	124–106	46-97	21-46	11-13	7	11	129.2	110.4	96.0
Oct 27	LAC	104–112	38-88	14-43	14-22	21	14	100.0	108.7	103.5
Oct 25	@UTA	127–86	51-106	20-50	5-6	13	19	123.3	82.7	103.5
Oct 23	@POR	140–104	48-93	20-48	24-30	17	15	128.4	96.3	108.5
Apr 14	UTA	123–116	45-94	14-43	19-23	9	12	123.0	116.0	100.0

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 8	HOU	126–107	46-90	14-37	20-23	10	7	122.3	103.9	103.0
Nov 6	@DEN	122–124	44-100	16-40	18-23	14	13	111.9	113.8	109.0
Nov 4	ORL	102–86	39-85	12-31	12-16	15	5	101.0	86.0	100.5
Nov 2	@LAC	105–92	36-84	16-39	17-19	12	3	105.0	92.0	100.0
Nov 1	@POR	137–114	51-95	19-49	16-19	13	14	137.0	114.0	100.0
Oct 30	SAS	105–93	41-89	17-41	6-8	10	5	106.1	93.0	99.5
Oct 27	ATL	128–104	44-89	16-40	24-32	10	11	125.5	103.0	101.5
Oct 26	@CHI	114–95	45-107	8-40	16-20	10	9	99.1	82.6	115.0
Oct 24	@DEN	102–87	43-101	8-36	8-12	12	13	104.1	87.9	98.5
May 18	@DAL	116–117	44-92	15-41	13-17	8	7	120.8	123.2	95.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

25%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

the forecast favored OKC

21 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −11 for OKC

33rd

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

163rd

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.39 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	OKC
Final score	127	116
Field goals	45–89 · 50.6%	42–94 · 44.7%
Three-pointers	21–43 · 48.8%	11–33 · 33.3%
Free throws	16–23 · 69.6%	21–26 · 80.8%
Rebounds	46	41
Assists	35	25
Turnovers	14	11
Steals	8	4
Blocks	3	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+10	−11	−21
Total points	230	243	+13
GSW points	110	127	+17
OKC points	120	116	−4

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
GSW	26	39	42	20	–	127
OKC	33	25	21	37	–	116

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