The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 17

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Wednesday, January 17, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MIL 1–0@CLE 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 37 percent, CLE 63 percent. MIL Bucks 37% proj. 112 · final 95 CLE Cavaliers · home 63% proj. 116 · final 135
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 112 95 −17
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 116 135 +19

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 63% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMILCLE
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16121560
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +18
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.0+2.3
Games played this season 4038
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 123.0117.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.9109.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 32.30.0
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1612CLE1560

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1612

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
  2. First 30 games: +71.0
  3. Last 10 games: −1.3
  • W@BKN144–122+14.2
  • W@CLE119–111+8.7
  • LIND113–122−17.8
  • L@IND130–142−12.9
  • W@SAS125–121+2.0
  • L@HOU108–112−8.0
  • LUTA116–132−25.0
  • WBOS135–102+30.7
  • WGSW129–118+4.8
  • WSAC143–142+2.0

CLE1560

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1565 → started this one at 1549
  2. First 28 games: −3.3
  3. Last 10 games: +14.1
  • LNOP104–123−19.6
  • W@CHI109–95+15.1
  • W@DAL113–110+6.1
  • LMIL111–119−8.7
  • L@TOR121–124−5.8
  • WWAS140–101+7.8
  • WWAS114–90+5.0
  • WSAS117–115+1.0
  • WBKN111–102+4.6
  • WCHI109–91+8.6
Season scoring marginMIL+5.0CLE+2.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL+5.0

Scores 125.0, allows 119.9 over 40 games: +5.0 a game.

CLE+2.3

Scores 113.1, allows 110.7 over 38 games: +2.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIL123.0CLE117.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

MIL123.0scored, +7.8 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.3%54.7%+7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%11.7%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.9%24.5%−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.205+0.7
Everything else+0.8

CLE117.3scored, +2.2 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%54.7%+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%11.7%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.3%24.5%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.205−0.7
Everything else+0.7
Defensive rating, last 10MIL118.9CLE109.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

MIL118.9allowed, +3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.7%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)7.6%11.7%−5.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.9%24.5%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.205−0.3
Everything else+0.0

CLE109.0allowed, −6.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.7%+3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%11.7%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)16.4%24.5%+3.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.205−0.0
Everything else−1.3
Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 101.7 and CLE 98.1 → average 99.9 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingMIL32.3CLE0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL32.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Giannis Antetokounmpo32.335.910

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-17 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-17 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestMIL3 daysCLE2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL3days

Last played Jan 14 against SAC.

CLE2days

Last played Jan 15 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 14SAC143–14248-9220-4327-32134126.5124.6102.8
Jan 13GSW129–11851-9413-3114-171214131.6119.298.5
Jan 11BOS135–10252-9218-4213-16911137.8103.098.5
Jan 8UTA116–13242-9417-3615-19910116.0134.799.0
Jan 6@HOU108–11235-769-3429-42113106.9112.0100.5
Jan 4@SAS125–12149-9212-3415-19146120.2116.3104.0
Jan 3@IND130–14246-9214-3724-32139122.6132.7106.5
Jan 1IND113–12241-9310-4021-26117108.7117.3104.0
Dec 29@CLE119–11141-8012-2925-28176116.7108.8102.0
Dec 27@BKN144–12252-8923-5117-23108142.6120.8101.0

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 15CHI109–9139-9520-5711-111113110.191.999.0
Jan 11BKN111–10232-8213-4434-431111109.9102.0100.5
Jan 7SAS117–11543-8816-4315-211610119.4117.398.0
Jan 5WAS114–9041-7716-3316-232310117.591.897.5
Jan 3WAS140–10154-10120-4212-16815144.3105.296.5
Jan 1@TOR121–12443-8912-3623-2694118.6121.6102.0
Dec 29MIL111–11949-1036-437-985108.8116.7102.0
Dec 27@DAL113–11040-9217-4316-231618113.0111.199.5
Dec 23@CHI109–9539-8812-4519-261215118.5101.193.0
Dec 21NOP104–12341-8717-445-8116113.0130.993.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
63%
pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner
CLE was the forecast favorite
36 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual +40 for CLE
914th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
21st
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.47 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILCLE
Final score95135
Field goals38–95 · 40.0%55–93 · 59.1%
Three-pointers12–42 · 28.6%12–28 · 42.9%
Free throws7–10 · 70.0%13–19 · 68.4%
Rebounds3655
Assists1936
Turnovers1010
Steals65
Blocks63

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+4+40+36
Total points228230+2
MIL points11295−17
CLE points116135+19

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MIL22192628–95
CLE32344227–135

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 14 vs SAC W 143–142
Jan 13 vs GSW W 129–118
Jan 11 vs BOS W 135–102
Jan 8 vs UTA L 116–132
Jan 6 at HOU L 108–112

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 15 vs CHI W 109–91
Jan 11 vs BKN W 111–102
Jan 7 vs SAS W 117–115
Jan 5 vs WAS W 114–90
Jan 3 vs WAS W 140–101

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 29 2023-24 MIL at CLE MIL 119 – 111 CLE
Jan 21 2022-23 MIL at CLE MIL 102 – 114 CLE
Dec 21 2022-23 MIL at CLE MIL 106 – 114 CLE
Nov 25 2022-23 CLE at MIL CLE 102 – 117 MIL
Nov 16 2022-23 CLE at MIL CLE 98 – 113 MIL