2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks

Friday, January 6, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 2–1@MIL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	107	138	+31
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home)	117	109	−8

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	MIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1367	1550
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+253
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−7.2	+2.0
Games played this season	39	38
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.2	109.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.5	111.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	103.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	27.7	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1367MIL1550

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1367

Ended last season at 1544 → started this one at 1533
First 29 games: −155.4
Last 10 games: −10.8

L@DEN115–119−2.4
W@SAC125–119+14.6
L@LAC105–126−8.0
W@LAL134–130+10.0
L@POR113–124−6.7
L@GSW105–110−2.4
WOKC121–113+8.6
LBKN106–123−8.1
LLAL115–121−7.3
LMEM107–131−9.1

MIL1550

Ended last season at 1595 → started this one at 1571
First 28 games: +5.1
Last 10 games: −26.5

WUTA123–97+12.1
W@NOP128–119+12.2
L@CLE106–114−7.3
L@BKN100–118−12.5
L@BOS118–139−10.8
L@CHI113–119−8.9
WMIN123–114+5.3
LWAS95–118−29.4
WWAS123–113+7.0
W@TOR104–101+5.8

Season scoring marginCHA−7.2MIL+2.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−7.2

Scores 111.3, allows 118.4 over 39 games: −7.2 a game.

MIL+2.0

Scores 112.5, allows 110.5 over 38 games: +2.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA108.2MIL109.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.9).

CHA108.2scored, −4.7 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	54.2%	−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.4%	+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.2%	23.8%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.213	−0.3
Everything else			−0.9

MIL109.6scored, −3.3 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.7%	54.2%	−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	12.4%	−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.3%	23.8%	+2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.213	−0.3
Everything else			−0.7

Defensive rating, last 10CHA114.5MIL111.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.9).

CHA114.5allowed, +1.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.3%	54.2%	−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.4%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.8%	23.8%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.221	0.213	−0.2
Everything else			+0.0

MIL111.4allowed, −1.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.7%	54.2%	+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.1%	12.4%	−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.4%	23.8%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.213	+0.8
Everything else			+0.6

Pace, last 10average 103.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 106.2 and MIL 101.6 → average 103.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA27.7MIL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA27.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kelly Oubre Jr.	16.7	30.0	6
Gordon Hayward	11.0	33.5	9

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-06 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-06 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysMIL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Jan 4 against MEM.

MIL2days

Last played Jan 4 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 4	MEM	107–131	38-94	11-38	20-24	12	10	100.0	121.3	107.5
Jan 2	LAL	115–121	42-93	11-32	20-29	14	8	105.5	110.0	109.5
Dec 31	BKN	106–123	38-96	11-41	19-21	12	14	105.0	123.0	100.5
Dec 29	OKC	121–113	46-84	10-32	19-29	17	12	116.3	109.7	103.5
Dec 27	@GSW	105–110	38-92	10-38	19-25	12	9	100.0	103.8	105.5
Dec 26	@POR	113–124	41-103	12-36	19-25	12	18	108.7	119.2	104.0
Dec 23	@LAL	134–130	52-94	16-41	14-18	16	11	125.2	121.5	107.0
Dec 21	@LAC	105–126	37-92	9-31	22-29	14	11	95.5	112.5	111.0
Dec 19	@SAC	125–119	49-95	10-31	17-23	14	11	116.8	112.3	106.5
Dec 18	@DEN	115–119	41-96	12-38	21-23	11	12	108.5	111.2	106.5

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 4	@TOR	104–101	35-88	13-39	21-30	25	13	90.4	87.8	104.2
Jan 3	WAS	123–113	48-100	11-40	16-17	12	15	120.6	110.8	102.0
Jan 1	WAS	95–118	34-96	13-49	14-15	16	14	92.2	114.6	103.0
Dec 30	MIN	123–114	43-93	14-39	23-33	21	20	115.0	106.5	107.0
Dec 28	@CHI	113–119	41-110	9-44	22-32	14	22	101.8	106.3	101.0
Dec 25	@BOS	118–139	42-84	13-36	21-27	15	8	113.5	135.0	103.5
Dec 23	@BKN	100–118	37-84	9-37	17-22	18	13	104.2	121.6	96.5
Dec 21	@CLE	106–114	39-83	13-30	15-22	19	13	108.2	116.3	98.0
Dec 19	@NOP	128–119	45-81	13-40	25-31	17	8	121.9	113.3	105.0
Dec 17	UTA	123–97	48-90	18-38	9-11	14	15	128.1	102.1	95.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored MIL

39 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −29 for MIL

33rd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

9th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	MIL
Final score	138	109
Field goals	53–102 · 52.0%	37–84 · 44.0%
Three-pointers	20–48 · 41.7%	20–48 · 41.7%
Free throws	12–19 · 63.2%	15–24 · 62.5%
Rebounds	49	45
Assists	32	22
Turnovers	5	16
Steals	11	5
Blocks	3	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)	+10	−29	−39
Total points	224	247	+23
CHA points	107	138	+31
MIL points	117	109	−8

Recent form before this game