The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 9

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks

Monday, January 9, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

MIL 0–2@NYK 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 32 percent, NYK 68 percent. MIL Bucks 32% proj. 108 · final 111 NYK Knicks · home 68% proj. 115 · final 107
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 108 111 +3
NYK New York Knicks (home) 115 107 −8

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMILNYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15071566
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +130
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.2+2.9
Games played this season 3940
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.6119.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.8114.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.021.8
Rest days 33
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1507NYK1566

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1507

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1595 → started this one at 1571
  2. First 29 games: +17.2
  3. Last 10 games: −82.0
  • W@NOP128–119+12.2
  • L@CLE106–114−7.3
  • L@BKN100–118−12.5
  • L@BOS118–139−10.8
  • L@CHI113–119−8.9
  • WMIN123–114+5.3
  • LWAS95–118−29.4
  • WWAS123–113+7.0
  • W@TOR104–101+5.8
  • LCHA109–138−43.4

NYK1566

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1519 → started this one at 1514
  2. First 30 games: +50.0
  3. Last 10 games: +1.8
  • WGSW132–94+20.7
  • LTOR106–113−14.5
  • LCHI117–118−6.7
  • LPHI112–119−9.9
  • L@DAL121–126−5.4
  • L@SAS115–122−12.3
  • W@HOU108–88+10.7
  • WPHX102–83+11.4
  • WSAS117–114+1.7
  • W@TOR112–108+6.1
Season scoring marginMIL+1.2NYK+2.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL+1.2

Scores 112.4, allows 111.2 over 39 games: +1.2 a game.

NYK+2.9

Scores 114.2, allows 111.3 over 40 games: +2.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIL107.6NYK119.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.9).

MIL107.6scored, −5.4 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%54.2%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)14.6%12.4%−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.8%23.8%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.213−0.1
Everything else−0.9

NYK119.4scored, +6.4 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.2%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)9.8%12.4%+3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%23.8%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.213−0.2
Everything else−1.0
Defensive rating, last 10MIL114.8NYK114.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.9).

MIL114.8allowed, +1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.2%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)9.2%12.4%−4.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%23.8%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.213+0.5
Everything else+0.4

NYK114.1allowed, +1.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.2%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%12.4%−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.0%23.8%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.213−0.2
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 98.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 102.2 and NYK 94.4 → average 98.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIL0.0NYK21.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-09 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

NYK21.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
RJ Barrett21.832.15

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-09 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMIL3 daysNYK3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL3days

Last played Jan 6 against CHA.

NYK3days

Last played Jan 6 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 6CHA109–13837-8420-4815-241612107.9135.3101.5
Jan 4@TOR104–10135-8813-3921-30251390.487.8104.2
Jan 3WAS123–11348-10011-4016-171215120.6110.8102.0
Jan 1WAS95–11834-9613-4914-15161492.2114.6103.0
Dec 30MIN123–11443-9314-3923-332120115.0106.5107.0
Dec 28@CHI113–11941-1109-4422-321422101.8106.3101.0
Dec 25@BOS118–13942-8413-3621-27158113.5135.0103.5
Dec 23@BKN100–11837-849-3717-221813104.2121.696.5
Dec 21@CLE106–11439-8313-3015-221913108.2116.398.0
Dec 19@NOP128–11945-8113-4025-31178121.9113.3105.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 6@TOR112–10839-8316-3718-261113117.9114.994.5
Jan 4SAS117–11445-9410-3117-261214115.8112.9101.0
Jan 2PHX102–8336-7413-3317-2575115.996.587.0
Dec 31@HOU108–8835-9015-5123-321016111.389.897.5
Dec 29@SAS115–12238-9015-4124-311213116.2123.299.0
Dec 27@DAL121–12645-10316-5015-24917115.2120.095.1
Dec 25PHI112–11943-9012-3214-17812121.7132.291.0
Dec 23CHI117–11843-8616-3515-261012125.8128.392.5
Dec 21TOR106–11342-7611-2611-18169119.1125.689.5
Dec 20GSW132–9445-8717-4025-321114134.797.997.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
32%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIL, the winner
the forecast favored NYK
11 pts
margin miss
forecast +7, actual −4 for NYK
105th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
474th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.13 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILNYK
Final score111107
Field goals39–89 · 43.8%38–100 · 38.0%
Three-pointers19–49 · 38.8%11–41 · 26.8%
Free throws14–18 · 77.8%20–22 · 90.9%
Rebounds4848
Assists2716
Turnovers147
Steals38
Blocks51

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+7−4−11
Total points223218−5
MIL points108111+3
NYK points115107−8

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 6 vs CHA L 109–138
Jan 4 at TOR W 104–101
Jan 3 vs WAS W 123–113
Jan 1 vs WAS L 95–118
Dec 30 vs MIN W 123–114

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 6 at TOR W 112–108
Jan 4 vs SAS W 117–114
Jan 2 vs PHX W 102–83
Dec 31 at HOU W 108–88
Dec 29 at SAS L 115–122

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 30 2022-23 MIL at NYK MIL 109 – 103 NYK
Oct 28 2022-23 NYK at MIL NYK 108 – 119 MIL
Jan 28 2021-22 NYK at MIL NYK 108 – 123 MIL
Dec 12 2021-22 MIL at NYK MIL 112 – 97 NYK
Nov 10 2021-22 MIL at NYK MIL 112 – 100 NYK