2022-23 · Regular Season · Final
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, March 30, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded
BOS 4–5@MIL 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS Boston Celtics | 116 | 140 | +24 |
| MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) | 121 | 99 | −22 |
Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 63% win probability, projected margin 5.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | BOS | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1620 | 1644 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +95 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +6.0 | +4.5 |
| Games played this season | 76 | 76 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 120.3 | 120.0 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 108.9 | 113.9 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.2 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingBOS1620MIL1644
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
BOS1620
- Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
- First 66 games: −42.7
- Last 10 games: +15.8
- WPOR115–93+5.6
- W@ATL134–125+9.1
- L@HOU109–111−10.1
- W@MIN104–102+4.6
- W@POR126–112+7.0
- L@UTA117–118−5.6
- W@SAC132–109+19.7
- WIND120–95+5.5
- WSAS137–93+3.6
- L@WAS111–130−23.6
MIL1644
- Ended last season at 1595 → started this one at 1571
- First 66 games: +87.9
- Last 10 games: −15.0
- L@GSW116–125−12.0
- W@SAC133–124+9.2
- W@PHX116–104+10.5
- LIND123–139−33.3
- WTOR118–111+4.2
- WSAS130–94+3.3
- W@UTA144–116+12.7
- L@DEN106–129−18.2
- W@DET126–117+2.6
- W@IND149–136+6.0
Season scoring marginBOS+6.0MIL+4.5
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
BOS+6.0
Scores 118.0, allows 112.0 over 76 games: +6.0 a game.
MIL+4.5
Scores 117.2, allows 112.8 over 76 games: +4.5 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10BOS120.3MIL120.0
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).
BOS120.3scored, +6.2 vs league
| Factor | BOS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.0% | 54.7% | +5.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.7% | 12.0% | +3.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 19.5% | 23.8% | −1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.181 | 0.212 | −0.9 | |
| Everything else | +0.6 |
MIL120.0scored, +5.8 vs league
| Factor | MIL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 59.4% | 54.7% | +7.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 12.0% | +1.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.0% | 23.8% | −0.8 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.193 | 0.212 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | −1.2 |
Defensive rating, last 10BOS108.9MIL113.9
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).
BOS108.9allowed, −5.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.9% | 54.7% | +4.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 12.0% | −1.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 20.3% | 23.8% | +1.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.184 | 0.212 | +0.8 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
MIL113.9allowed, −0.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.8% | 54.7% | +2.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.0% | 12.0% | −4.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.0% | 23.8% | +0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.159 | 0.212 | +1.5 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
Pace, last 10average 102.2
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
BOS 100.3 and MIL 104.1 → average 102.2 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingBOS0.0MIL0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
BOS0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2023-03-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
MIL0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2023-03-30 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
RestBOS2 daysMIL1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
BOS2days
Last played Mar 28 against WAS.
MIL1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 29 against IND.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
BOS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | @WAS | 111–130 | 45-93 | 11-44 | 10-11 | 12 | 7 | 108.8 | 128.7 | 101.5 |
| Mar 26 | SAS | 137–93 | 52-91 | 18-44 | 15-21 | 14 | 9 | 128.0 | 85.3 | 108.0 |
| Mar 24 | IND | 120–95 | 44-93 | 18-42 | 14-19 | 14 | 9 | 115.4 | 91.3 | 104.0 |
| Mar 21 | @SAC | 132–109 | 49-92 | 18-44 | 16-23 | 5 | 11 | 140.4 | 114.7 | 94.5 |
| Mar 18 | @UTA | 117–118 | 42-88 | 22-51 | 11-16 | 6 | 5 | 123.2 | 124.2 | 95.0 |
| Mar 17 | @POR | 126–112 | 41-87 | 15-42 | 29-35 | 16 | 18 | 123.5 | 110.9 | 101.5 |
| Mar 15 | @MIN | 104–102 | 34-84 | 12-40 | 24-30 | 9 | 8 | 110.6 | 107.4 | 94.5 |
| Mar 13 | @HOU | 109–111 | 39-87 | 12-42 | 19-21 | 13 | 10 | 112.4 | 114.4 | 97.0 |
| Mar 11 | @ATL | 134–125 | 52-95 | 20-42 | 10-12 | 8 | 5 | 128.8 | 121.4 | 103.5 |
| Mar 8 | POR | 115–93 | 42-88 | 18-49 | 13-20 | 10 | 5 | 111.7 | 90.3 | 103.0 |
MIL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 | @IND | 149–136 | 58-93 | 10-25 | 23-30 | 18 | 14 | 138.0 | 124.8 | 108.5 |
| Mar 27 | @DET | 126–117 | 45-95 | 14-45 | 22-26 | 8 | 15 | 124.8 | 118.2 | 100.0 |
| Mar 25 | @DEN | 106–129 | 39-88 | 9-36 | 19-21 | 10 | 4 | 101.9 | 125.2 | 103.5 |
| Mar 24 | @UTA | 144–116 | 55-99 | 22-50 | 12-16 | 12 | 9 | 132.1 | 107.4 | 108.5 |
| Mar 22 | SAS | 130–94 | 51-98 | 15-43 | 13-24 | 15 | 10 | 118.2 | 84.7 | 110.5 |
| Mar 19 | TOR | 118–111 | 43-82 | 16-45 | 16-21 | 12 | 7 | 120.4 | 114.4 | 97.5 |
| Mar 16 | IND | 123–139 | 47-89 | 11-32 | 18-26 | 12 | 9 | 116.0 | 131.1 | 106.0 |
| Mar 14 | @PHX | 116–104 | 40-85 | 12-39 | 24-37 | 12 | 13 | 116.0 | 103.0 | 100.5 |
| Mar 13 | @SAC | 133–124 | 50-86 | 15-33 | 18-22 | 12 | 5 | 130.4 | 121.6 | 102.0 |
| Mar 11 | @GSW | 116–125 | 43-100 | 21-51 | 9-11 | 17 | 7 | 101.8 | 108.7 | 103.7 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2022-23 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | BOS | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 140 | 99 |
| Field goals | 51–91 · 56.0% | 38–101 · 37.6% |
| Three-pointers | 22–43 · 51.2% | 14–43 · 32.6% |
| Free throws | 16–20 · 80.0% | 9–13 · 69.2% |
| Rebounds | 47 | 45 |
| Assists | 28 | 22 |
| Turnovers | 8 | 13 |
| Steals | 8 | 4 |
| Blocks | 5 | 1 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Milwaukee Bucks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (MIL) | +5 | −41 | −46 |
| Total points | 237 | 239 | +2 |
| BOS points | 116 | 140 | +24 |
| MIL points | 121 | 99 | −22 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14 2022-23 | BOS at MIL | BOS 125 – 131 MIL |
| Dec 25 2022-23 | MIL at BOS | MIL 118 – 139 BOS |
| May 15 2021-22 | MIL at BOS | MIL 81 – 109 BOS |
| May 13 2021-22 | BOS at MIL | BOS 108 – 95 MIL |
| May 11 2021-22 | MIL at BOS | MIL 110 – 107 BOS |