2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks

Saturday, January 4, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 2–2@MIL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	108	105	−3
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home)	121	102	−19

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	MIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1329	1509
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+250
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−9.2	+1.0
Games played this season	33	31
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.4	110.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.5	108.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	12.6	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1329MIL1509

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1329

Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
First 23 games: −4.0
Last 10 games: −13.7

L@LAL98–107−3.8
LSAS116–118−4.4
L@PHX109–116−2.5
WDEN126–124+8.6
L@SAS94–114−8.0
L@DAL108–132−3.0
WUTA122–120+4.5
WDAL126–122+12.2
LPHI103–125−14.4
L@LAL106–114−2.9

MIL1509

Ended last season at 1521 → started this one at 1516
First 21 games: −12.2
Last 10 games: +5.6

L@BOS105–111−2.0
W@BKN118–113+7.1
WORL114–109+7.0
L@CLE101–124−8.5
WWAS112–101+2.5
W@CHI112–91+18.6
LBKN105–111−14.1
L@CHI111–116−7.1
W@IND120–112+12.4
LBKN110–113−10.3

Season scoring marginPOR−9.2MIL+1.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−9.2

Scores 108.0, allows 117.2 over 33 games: −9.2 a game.

MIL+1.0

Scores 112.7, allows 111.7 over 31 games: +1.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR112.4MIL110.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

POR112.4scored, −0.2 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.2%	−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.5%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.0%	24.6%	+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.195	−0.2
Everything else			+0.4

MIL110.1scored, −2.5 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.7%	54.2%	+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	12.5%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.7%	24.6%	−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.195	−0.5
Everything else			−0.9

Defensive rating, last 10POR120.5MIL108.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

POR120.5allowed, +7.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.1%	54.2%	−5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.5%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.7%	24.6%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.213	0.195	−0.5
Everything else			+0.4

MIL108.2allowed, −4.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.2%	+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.5%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.3%	24.6%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.195	+0.2
Everything else			+0.5

Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 98.7 and MIL 101.3 → average 100.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingPOR12.6MIL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR12.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jerami Grant	12.6	33.2	8

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-04 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-04 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysMIL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Jan 2 against LAL.

MIL2days

Last played Jan 2 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 2	@LAL	106–114	40-80	9-26	17-21	18	8	109.3	117.5	97.0
Dec 30	PHI	103–125	37-77	8-36	21-30	24	12	106.2	128.9	97.0
Dec 28	DAL	126–122	46-92	11-26	23-29	14	14	122.3	117.3	103.5
Dec 26	UTA	122–120	45-89	15-38	17-22	11	9	123.2	121.2	99.0
Dec 23	@DAL	108–132	43-93	8-29	14-19	18	16	108.0	129.4	101.0
Dec 21	@SAS	94–114	38-96	12-43	6-9	13	11	95.9	116.3	98.0
Dec 19	DEN	126–124	45-97	16-46	20-24	10	15	126.0	125.3	99.5
Dec 15	@PHX	109–116	42-94	15-49	10-13	13	10	111.2	118.4	98.0
Dec 13	SAS	116–118	42-82	16-41	16-17	13	8	120.8	121.6	96.5
Dec 8	@LAL	98–107	35-84	9-36	19-21	17	12	101.0	109.2	97.5

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 2	BKN	110–113	40-90	11-37	19-28	14	13	111.1	114.1	99.0
Dec 31	@IND	120–112	45-97	12-33	18-24	12	13	110.1	102.8	109.0
Dec 28	@CHI	111–116	41-102	15-45	14-14	7	6	107.8	113.7	102.5
Dec 26	BKN	105–111	41-83	15-38	8-12	22	8	105.0	112.1	99.5
Dec 23	@CHI	112–91	40-87	18-43	14-17	13	5	109.8	90.1	101.5
Dec 21	WAS	112–101	44-98	20-48	4-5	11	8	110.9	100.0	101.0
Dec 20	@CLE	101–124	40-85	10-27	11-18	20	8	95.3	118.1	105.5
Dec 14	@ATL	110–102	39-86	14-45	18-27	12	6	104.8	98.1	104.5
Dec 10	ORL	114–109	42-77	11-30	19-25	16	5	116.3	110.1	98.5
Dec 8	@BKN	118–113	39-68	15-31	25-32	16	3	129.7	122.8	91.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored MIL

16 pts

margin miss

forecast +13, actual −3 for MIL

8th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

293rd

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	MIL
Final score	105	102
Field goals	41–85 · 48.2%	41–95 · 43.2%
Three-pointers	13–36 · 36.1%	13–41 · 31.7%
Free throws	10–13 · 76.9%	7–9 · 77.8%
Rebounds	55	43
Assists	21	25
Turnovers	17	11
Steals	7	14
Blocks	3	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)	+13	−3	−16
Total points	229	207	−22
POR points	108	105	−3
MIL points	121	102	−19

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
POR	28	26	21	30	–	105
MIL	31	20	25	26	–	102

Recent form before this game