The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 11

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Thursday, January 11, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 3–0@MIL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 51 percent, MIL 49 percent. BOS Celtics 51% proj. 120 · final 102 MIL Bucks · home 49% proj. 117 · final 135
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 120 102 −18
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) 117 135 +18

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 51% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSMIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 17241574
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −80
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +10.3+4.2
Games played this season 3737
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 125.1119.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.7119.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 8.00.0
Rest days 13
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1724MIL1574

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1724

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1654 → started this one at 1616
  2. First 27 games: +68.1
  3. Last 10 games: +40.8
  • W@LAC145–108+23.2
  • W@LAL126–115+6.9
  • WDET128–122+0.4
  • WTOR120–118+1.1
  • W@SAS134–101+4.2
  • L@OKC123–127−6.4
  • WUTA126–97+4.6
  • W@IND118–101+9.8
  • L@IND131–133−7.1
  • WMIN127–120+4.1

MIL1574

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
  2. First 27 games: +55.8
  3. Last 10 games: −23.6
  • WORL118–114+3.3
  • W@NYK130–111+19.6
  • L@NYK122–129−7.7
  • W@BKN144–122+14.2
  • W@CLE119–111+8.7
  • LIND113–122−17.8
  • L@IND130–142−12.9
  • W@SAS125–121+2.0
  • L@HOU108–112−8.0
  • LUTA116–132−25.0
Season scoring marginBOS+10.3MIL+4.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+10.3

Scores 121.3, allows 111.0 over 37 games: +10.3 a game.

MIL+4.2

Scores 124.1, allows 119.9 over 37 games: +4.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BOS125.1MIL119.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

BOS125.1scored, +10.0 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.9%54.7%+4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%11.7%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%24.6%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2320.205+0.8
Everything else+1.9

MIL119.5scored, +4.5 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.7%54.7%+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%11.7%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.6%24.6%−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2440.205+1.1
Everything else+0.9
Defensive rating, last 10BOS111.7MIL119.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

BOS111.7allowed, −3.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.7%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%11.7%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%24.6%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1660.205+1.1
Everything else+1.7

MIL119.0allowed, +3.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.7%+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)8.2%11.7%−4.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%24.6%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.205−0.5
Everything else−0.5
Pace, last 10average 101.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 100.4 and MIL 102.3 → average 101.4 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingBOS8.0MIL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS8.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Al Horford8.028.38

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-11 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-11 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestBOS1 daysMIL3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 10 against MIN.

MIL3days

Last played Jan 8 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 10MIN127–12039-9019-4730-3187122.1115.494.2
Jan 8@IND131–13347-9017-3520-291511128.4129.1102.5
Jan 6@IND118–10146-9016-4110-19178116.8100.0101.0
Jan 5UTA126–9739-9017-4931-36127115.687.4110.0
Jan 2@OKC123–12742-9215-4024-291417124.2127.099.5
Dec 31@SAS134–10151-9515-4217-22109127.697.1104.5
Dec 29TOR120–11843-8817-3917-201611122.4120.498.0
Dec 28DET128–12248-9911-3921-251211118.5111.998.3
Dec 25@LAL126–11546-9113-4221-28811128.6117.398.0
Dec 23@LAC145–10849-9425-5322-28915146.5111.398.0

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 8UTA116–13242-9417-3615-19910116.0134.799.0
Jan 6@HOU108–11235-769-3429-42113106.9112.0100.5
Jan 4@SAS125–12149-9212-3415-19146120.2116.3104.0
Jan 3@IND130–14246-9214-3724-32139122.6132.7106.5
Jan 1IND113–12241-9310-4021-26117108.7117.3104.0
Dec 29@CLE119–11141-8012-2925-28176116.7108.8102.0
Dec 27@BKN144–12252-8923-5117-23108142.6120.8101.0
Dec 25@NYK122–12945-9513-4219-241117122.0129.0100.0
Dec 23@NYK130–11148-9116-3218-231412126.2107.8103.0
Dec 21ORL118–11438-9011-3731-351310113.5110.7103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
49%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIL, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
36 pts
margin miss
forecast −3, actual +33 for MIL
416th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
21st
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.72 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSMIL
Final score102135
Field goals34–91 · 37.4%52–92 · 56.5%
Three-pointers9–35 · 25.7%18–42 · 42.9%
Free throws25–30 · 83.3%13–16 · 81.3%
Rebounds3154
Assists2234
Turnovers69
Steals53
Blocks56

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)−3+33+36
Total points237237±0
BOS points120102−18
MIL points117135+18

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
BOS23153232–102
MIL41343624–135

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Jan 10 vs MIN W 127–120
Jan 8 at IND L 131–133
Jan 6 at IND W 118–101
Jan 5 vs UTA W 126–97
Jan 2 at OKC L 123–127

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 8 vs UTA L 116–132
Jan 6 at HOU L 108–112
Jan 4 at SAS W 125–121
Jan 3 at IND L 130–142
Jan 1 vs IND L 113–122

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 22 2023-24 MIL at BOS MIL 116 – 119 BOS
Mar 30 2022-23 BOS at MIL BOS 140 – 99 MIL
Feb 14 2022-23 BOS at MIL BOS 125 – 131 MIL
Dec 25 2022-23 MIL at BOS MIL 118 – 139 BOS
May 15 2021-22 MIL at BOS MIL 81 – 109 BOS