2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks

Tuesday, March 31, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

DAL 2–1@MIL 3–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DAL Dallas Mavericks	117	99	−18
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home)	116	123	+7

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DAL	MIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1353	1337
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+54
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.2	−6.4
Games played this season	76	74
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.3	108.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.2	125.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	54.1	64.5
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1353MIL1337

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1353

Ended last season at 1432 → started this one at 1449
First 66 games: −93.1
Last 10 games: −3.2

W@MEM120–112+12.8
LCLE105–138−10.3
W@CLE130–120+25.4
L@NOP111–129−9.9
LATL120–135−8.8
LLAC131–138−5.6
LGSW131–137−7.1
L@DEN135–142−1.9
W@POR100–93+16.0
LMIN94–124−13.8

MIL1337

Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
First 64 games: −155.9
Last 10 games: −49.6

L@MIA105–112−2.6
L@ATL99–122−6.8
WIND134–123+5.6
LCLE116–123−4.3
L@UTA96–128−23.6
W@PHX108–105+10.9
L@LAC96–129−7.7
L@POR99–130−9.1
LSAS95–127−5.2
LLAC113–127−6.8

Season scoring marginDAL−5.2MIL−6.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL−5.2

Scores 113.7, allows 118.9 over 76 games: −5.2 a game.

MIL−6.4

Scores 110.4, allows 116.9 over 74 games: −6.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DAL112.3MIL108.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

DAL112.3scored, −2.3 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.6%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.2%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.7%	26.0%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.226	0.210	+0.5
Everything else			−0.2

MIL108.3scored, −6.4 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.7%	54.6%	+3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.3%	12.2%	−4.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.7%	26.0%	−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.146	0.210	−1.8
Everything else			−0.9

Defensive rating, last 10DAL120.2MIL125.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

DAL120.2allowed, +5.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.7%	54.6%	−7.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.2%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.8%	26.0%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.173	0.210	+1.1
Everything else			+0.7

MIL125.0allowed, +10.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.7%	54.6%	−9.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.1%	26.0%	−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 100.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 103.1 and MIL 98.2 → average 100.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingDAL54.1MIL64.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL54.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Naji Marshall	18.7	30.9	9
P.J. Washington	15.9	32.1	8
Klay Thompson	10.0	20.5	7
Marvin Bagley III	9.6	20.1	9

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-31 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIL64.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Giannis Antetokounmpo	31.0	26.2	2
Bobby Portis	17.2	25.9	6
Kevin Porter Jr.	16.3	30.1	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-31 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestDAL1 daysMIL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 30 against MIN.

MIL2days

Last played Mar 29 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 30	MIN	94–124	31-89	7-29	25-34	15	8	91.3	119.2	103.5
Mar 27	@POR	100–93	36-81	7-24	21-30	17	6	96.2	89.4	104.0
Mar 25	@DEN	135–142	48-97	12-35	27-34	4	10	129.8	134.0	105.0
Mar 23	GSW	131–137	51-87	16-36	13-20	21	5	115.9	119.1	103.2
Mar 21	LAC	131–138	48-102	13-34	22-29	10	17	124.8	130.2	95.5
Mar 18	ATL	120–135	42-86	11-28	25-29	18	11	114.3	128.6	105.0
Mar 16	@NOP	111–129	44-104	14-39	9-14	11	13	101.8	118.3	109.0
Mar 15	@CLE	130–120	46-87	15-30	23-27	12	9	127.5	116.5	102.5
Mar 13	CLE	105–138	38-87	9-33	20-24	17	12	104.0	135.3	101.5
Mar 12	@MEM	120–112	45-93	11-32	19-24	19	21	117.6	110.9	101.5

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 29	LAC	113–127	40-77	20-44	13-15	22	4	111.9	125.7	101.0
Mar 28	SAS	95–127	38-87	14-46	5-6	18	8	97.9	129.6	97.5
Mar 25	@POR	99–130	36-89	14-45	13-20	16	13	98.0	131.3	100.0
Mar 23	@LAC	96–129	37-84	16-41	6-9	22	11	99.0	133.0	97.0
Mar 21	@PHX	108–105	39-78	16-39	14-21	15	8	117.4	114.1	92.0
Mar 19	@UTA	96–128	32-78	15-44	17-23	20	8	96.0	128.0	100.0
Mar 17	CLE	116–123	42-88	20-45	12-17	8	7	120.8	129.5	95.5
Mar 15	IND	134–123	49-90	23-44	13-19	9	13	139.6	128.1	96.0
Mar 14	@ATL	99–122	37-76	12-37	13-18	20	5	98.0	120.8	101.0
Mar 12	@MIA	105–112	41-83	9-26	14-19	14	3	104.0	109.8	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

47%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIL, the winner

the forecast favored DAL

25 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +24 for MIL

379th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

109th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DAL	MIL
Final score	99	123
Field goals	34–96 · 35.4%	41–92 · 44.6%
Three-pointers	10–36 · 27.8%	20–54 · 37.0%
Free throws	21–28 · 75.0%	21–26 · 80.8%
Rebounds	50	59
Assists	18	28
Turnovers	14	16
Steals	12	7
Blocks	4	9

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)	−1	+24	+25
Total points	233	222	−11
DAL points	117	99	−18
MIL points	116	123	+7

Recent form before this game