2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns

Saturday, March 21, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

MIL 2–6@PHX 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks	107	108	+1
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	116	105	−11

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIL	PHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1354	1519
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+234
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.3	+1.0
Games played this season	69	70
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.9	116.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	123.4	114.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	25.7	24.1
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1354PHX1519

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1354

Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
First 59 games: −102.7
Last 10 games: −84.7

LBOS81–108−10.8
LATL113–131−14.9
WUTA113–99+6.3
LORL91–130−22.8
LPHX114–129−10.8
L@MIA105–112−2.6
L@ATL99–122−6.8
WIND134–123+5.6
LCLE116–123−4.3
L@UTA96–128−23.6

PHX1519

Ended last season at 1429 → started this one at 1447
First 60 games: +61.8
Last 10 games: +10.1

W@SAC114–103+6.6
LCHI103–105−8.9
WNOP118–116+2.3
WCHA111–99+14.0
W@MIL129–114+10.8
W@IND123–108+6.6
L@TOR115–122−7.5
L@BOS112–120−4.1
L@MIN104–116−8.5
L@SAS100–101−1.2

Season scoring marginMIL−5.3PHX+1.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL−5.3

Scores 111.0, allows 116.4 over 69 games: −5.3 a game.

PHX+1.0

Scores 112.2, allows 111.2 over 70 games: +1.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIL108.9PHX116.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).

MIL108.9scored, −5.6 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.0%	54.4%	+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.2%	−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.162	0.210	−1.4
Everything else			−4.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

PHX116.1scored, +1.6 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.4%	54.4%	−0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			−0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10MIL123.4PHX114.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).

MIL123.4allowed, +8.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.3%	54.4%	−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.2%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.197	0.210	+0.4
Everything else			−1.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

PHX114.5allowed, +0.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.1%	54.4%	+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.2%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			−0.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 97.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 97.6 and PHX 97.0 → average 97.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingMIL25.7PHX24.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL25.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Giannis Antetokounmpo	25.7	27.2	6

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-21 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

PHX24.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Grayson Allen	15.2	27.4	6
Royce O'Neale	8.9	27.4	9

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-21 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMIL2 daysPHX2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL2days

Last played Mar 19 against UTA.

PHX2days

Last played Mar 19 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 19	@UTA	96–128	32-78	15-44	17-23	20	8	96.0	128.0	100.0
Mar 17	CLE	116–123	42-88	20-45	12-17	8	7	120.8	129.5	95.5
Mar 15	IND	134–123	49-90	23-44	13-19	9	13	139.6	128.1	96.0
Mar 14	@ATL	99–122	37-76	12-37	13-18	20	5	98.0	120.8	101.0
Mar 12	@MIA	105–112	41-83	9-26	14-19	14	3	104.0	109.8	101.5
Mar 10	PHX	114–129	42-82	16-38	14-20	16	8	115.2	129.0	99.5
Mar 8	ORL	91–130	36-84	13-44	6-13	16	–	93.8	135.4	96.5
Mar 7	UTA	113–99	41-85	15-44	16-28	11	–	115.3	100.0	98.5
Mar 4	ATL	113–131	43-86	13-39	14-20	15	12	116.5	133.7	97.5
Mar 2	BOS	81–108	27-74	13-36	14-19	16	9	90.0	120.0	90.0

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 19	@SAS	100–101	38-91	11-36	13-17	11	10	103.1	105.2	96.5
Mar 17	@MIN	104–116	37-97	13-37	17-23	11	17	103.0	118.4	99.5
Mar 16	@BOS	112–120	37-83	13-40	25-29	9	8	116.7	126.3	95.5
Mar 13	@TOR	115–122	38-80	18-42	21-30	11	6	118.6	127.1	96.5
Mar 12	@IND	123–108	46-88	13-32	18-22	12	12	128.1	112.5	96.0
Mar 10	@MIL	129–114	48-89	24-51	9-11	11	8	129.0	115.2	99.5
Mar 8	CHA	111–99	36-79	16-41	23-26	6	–	124.7	112.5	88.5
Mar 6	NOP	118–116	40-90	20-58	18-26	12	–	122.9	122.1	95.5
Mar 5	CHI	103–105	36-92	13-46	18-27	14	–	100.0	101.9	103.0
Mar 3	@SAC	114–103	42-92	19-49	11-17	19	18	115.2	104.0	99.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIL, the winner

the forecast favored PHX

12 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −3 for PHX

53rd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

490th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.34 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIL	PHX
Final score	108	105
Field goals	39–78 · 50.0%	40–89 · 44.9%
Three-pointers	16–39 · 41.0%	15–39 · 38.5%
Free throws	14–21 · 66.7%	10–18 · 55.6%
Rebounds	42	38
Assists	20	27
Turnovers	15	10
Steals	6	7
Blocks	4	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	+9	−3	−12
Total points	223	213	−10
MIL points	107	108	+1
PHX points	116	105	−11

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 19	at UTA	L 96–128
Mar 17	vs CLE	L 116–123
Mar 15	vs IND	W 134–123
Mar 14	at ATL	L 99–122
Mar 12	at MIA	L 105–112

Phoenix Suns

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 19	at SAS	L 100–101
Mar 17	at MIN	L 104–116
Mar 16	at BOS	L 112–120
Mar 13	at TOR	L 115–122
Mar 12	at IND	W 123–108

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 10 2025-26	PHX at MIL	PHX 129 – 114 MIL
Apr 1 2024-25	PHX at MIL	PHX 123 – 133 MIL
Mar 24 2024-25	MIL at PHX	MIL 106 – 108 PHX
Mar 17 2023-24	PHX at MIL	PHX 129 – 140 MIL
Feb 6 2023-24	MIL at PHX	MIL 106 – 114 PHX