The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 12

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings

Tuesday, March 12, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MIL 2–2@SAC 1–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 49 percent, SAC 51 percent. MIL Bucks 49% proj. 115 · final 94 SAC Kings · home 51% proj. 113 · final 129
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 115 94 −21
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 113 129 +16

Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 49% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMILSAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15831532
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +19
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.8+0.3
Games played this season 6563
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.9116.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.8116.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1583SAC1532

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1583

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
  2. First 55 games: −3.6
  3. Last 10 games: +44.3
  • L@MEM110–113−6.9
  • W@MIN112–107+13.0
  • W@PHI119–98+17.3
  • WCHA123–85+6.2
  • W@CHA111–99+5.4
  • W@CHI113–97+13.6
  • WLAC113–106+6.9
  • L@GSW90–125−19.5
  • L@LAL122–123−3.8
  • W@LAC124–117+12.1

SAC1532

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. First 53 games: −4.9
  3. Last 10 games: +14.0
  • W@DEN102–98+9.9
  • WSAS127–122+1.9
  • W@LAC123–107+23.8
  • LMIA110–121−13.9
  • L@DEN96–117−9.5
  • W@MIN124–120+11.5
  • LCHI109–113−9.6
  • W@LAL130–120+13.1
  • WSAS131–129+1.4
  • LHOU104–112−14.6
Season scoring marginMIL+3.8SAC+0.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL+3.8

Scores 120.9, allows 117.1 over 65 games: +3.8 a game.

SAC+0.3

Scores 118.2, allows 117.9 over 63 games: +0.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIL116.9SAC116.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

MIL116.9scored, +2.0 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.8%+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)9.7%11.5%+2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.3%24.2%−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.198+0.1
Everything else+0.2

SAC116.2scored, +1.3 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.8%+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%11.5%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%24.2%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1450.198−1.5
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10MIL109.8SAC116.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

MIL109.8allowed, −5.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.8%+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%11.5%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.5%24.2%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1310.198+1.9
Everything else+0.1

SAC116.4allowed, +1.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%54.8%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%11.5%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.6%24.2%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.198−0.5
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 97.3 and SAC 98.6 → average 98.0 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.5)

Rotation points missingMIL0.0SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-12 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-12 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMIL2 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL2days

Last played Mar 10 against LAC.

SAC2days

Last played Mar 10 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 10@LAC124–11743-8717-3821-2776126.5119.498.0
Mar 8@LAL122–12346-9316-4114-1764123.2126.898.0
Mar 6@GSW90–12534-8911-3911-1515489.1123.8101.0
Mar 4LAC113–10637-7815-3824-28112114.1108.298.5
Mar 1@CHI113–9737-8615-4624-32711118.9103.294.5
Feb 29@CHA111–9939-8616-3917-2078118.1105.394.0
Feb 27CHA123–8546-8916-4015-18911130.988.595.0
Feb 25@PHI119–9843-7918-3715-18187125.3101.096.0
Feb 23@MIN112–10741-8713-3717-251011114.3109.298.0
Feb 15@MEM110–11342-9011-4415-201311108.9113.0100.5

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 10HOU104–11239-866-3220-23126103.0109.8101.5
Mar 7SAS131–12952-10210-3217-181311128.4125.2102.5
Mar 6@LAL130–12054-9712-3110-12138125.0114.3104.5
Mar 4CHI109–11341-9211-3716-181717117.2122.892.5
Mar 1@MIN124–12050-10011-2913-24714121.6116.592.8
Feb 28@DEN96–11738-9512-358-13141598.0118.298.5
Feb 26MIA110–12145-8513-327-121511113.4124.797.0
Feb 25@LAC123–10745-9115-3718-221014130.9115.193.5
Feb 22SAS127–12252-9313-3310-14107124.5120.8101.5
Feb 14@DEN102–9839-899-3315-191410100.097.0101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
51%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner
SAC was the forecast favorite
37 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +35 for SAC
477th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
18th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.68 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILSAC
Final score94129
Field goals30–82 · 36.6%49–92 · 53.3%
Three-pointers7–39 · 17.9%18–40 · 45.0%
Free throws27–35 · 77.1%13–16 · 81.3%
Rebounds4451
Assists2334
Turnovers138
Steals311
Blocks21

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)−2+35+37
Total points228223−5
MIL points11594−21
SAC points113129+16

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MIL30262216–94
SAC38372034–129

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Mar 10 at LAC W 124–117
Mar 8 at LAL L 122–123
Mar 6 at GSW L 90–125
Mar 4 vs LAC W 113–106
Mar 1 at CHI W 113–97

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Mar 10 vs HOU L 104–112
Mar 7 vs SAS W 131–129
Mar 6 at LAL W 130–120
Mar 4 vs CHI L 109–113
Mar 1 at MIN W 124–120

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 14 2023-24 SAC at MIL SAC 142 – 143 MIL
Mar 13 2022-23 MIL at SAC MIL 133 – 124 SAC
Dec 7 2022-23 SAC at MIL SAC 113 – 126 MIL
Mar 16 2021-22 MIL at SAC MIL 135 – 126 SAC
Jan 22 2021-22 SAC at MIL SAC 127 – 133 MIL