2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks

Sunday, March 8, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

ORL 2–2@MIL 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
ORL Orlando Magic	113	130	+17
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home)	106	91	−15

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	ORL	MIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1529	1420
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−39
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.2	−4.2
Games played this season	63	62
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.6	111.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.7	117.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	40.7
Rest days	1	1
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1529MIL1420

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1529

Ended last season at 1506 → started this one at 1505
First 53 games: −12.0
Last 10 games: +35.9

LMIL108–116−14.4
W@SAC131–94+17.0
L@PHX110–113−3.6
W@LAC111–109+7.3
W@LAL110–109+5.2
LHOU108–113−6.4
LDET92–106−8.6
WWAS126–109+4.1
WDAL115–114+1.8
W@MIN119–92+33.5

MIL1420

Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
First 52 games: −111.9
Last 10 games: −10.0

W@OKC110–93+36.1
W@NOP139–118+15.7
LTOR94–122−24.0
WMIA128–117+11.8
WCLE118–116+6.9
LNYK98–127−17.2
L@CHI97–120−19.9
LBOS81–108−10.8
LATL113–131−14.9
WUTA113–99+6.3

Season scoring marginORL+1.2MIL−4.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL+1.2

Scores 115.2, allows 114.0 over 63 games: +1.2 a game.

MIL−4.2

Scores 111.4, allows 115.5 over 62 games: −4.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ORL114.6MIL111.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.4).

ORL114.6scored, +0.3 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.4%	−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.2%	+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.1%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.231	0.210	+0.6
Everything else			−0.7

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIL111.3scored, −3.1 vs league

Factor	MIL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.0%	54.4%	+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.2%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.1%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.148	0.210	−1.8
Everything else			−1.2

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 4 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10ORL108.7MIL117.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.4).

ORL108.7allowed, −5.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.0%	54.4%	+6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.2%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.1%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.225	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			+0.7

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MIL117.1allowed, +2.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.0%	54.4%	−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.2%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.1%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.210	+0.6
Everything else			−0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 4 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 97.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 97.1 and MIL 98.2 → average 97.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingORL0.0MIL40.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-08 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MIL40.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Giannis Antetokounmpo	23.3	26.2	3
Kevin Porter Jr.	17.4	32.4	8

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-08 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestORL1 daysMIL1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 7 against MIN.

MIL1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 7 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 7	@MIN	119–92	42-91	9-34	26-31	14	–	115.5	90.2	102.5
Mar 5	DAL	115–114	44-97	13-39	14-16	12	–	116.2	114.0	99.5
Mar 3	WAS	126–109	42-76	10-25	32-37	8	3	126.0	109.0	100.0
Mar 1	DET	92–106	29-77	10-36	24-30	19	9	91.1	102.9	102.0
Feb 26	HOU	108–113	40-88	15-37	13-21	11	15	118.7	125.6	90.5
Feb 24	@LAL	110–109	43-94	7-29	17-23	10	12	112.2	111.2	98.0
Feb 22	@LAC	111–109	40-83	8-23	23-31	12	–	118.1	114.7	94.5
Feb 21	@PHX	110–113	42-98	10-39	16-19	16	–	102.8	101.8	90.2
Feb 19	@SAC	131–94	45-90	27-50	14-17	10	–	128.4	93.1	101.5
Feb 11	MIL	108–116	35-82	20-47	18-21	9	–	117.4	124.7	92.5

MIL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 7	UTA	113–99	41-85	15-44	16-28	11	–	115.3	100.0	98.5
Mar 4	ATL	113–131	43-86	13-39	14-20	15	12	116.5	133.7	97.5
Mar 2	BOS	81–108	27-74	13-36	14-19	16	9	90.0	120.0	90.0
Mar 1	@CHI	97–120	35-95	13-46	14-17	19	11	92.4	114.3	105.0
Feb 27	NYK	98–127	33-77	16-42	16-22	16	4	99.0	128.3	99.0
Feb 25	CLE	118–116	48-88	19-45	3-5	13	8	125.5	123.4	94.0
Feb 24	MIA	128–117	48-97	16-39	16-19	10	10	121.9	110.4	105.5
Feb 22	TOR	94–122	35-85	9-32	15-19	17	–	98.9	128.4	95.0
Feb 20	@NOP	139–118	55-92	15-36	14-18	13	–	135.0	112.4	104.0
Feb 12	@OKC	110–93	44-95	17-42	5-7	10	–	118.3	100.0	93.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

69%

pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner

ORL was the forecast favorite

32 pts

margin miss

forecast −7, actual −39 for MIL

889th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

35th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.37 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	ORL	MIL
Final score	130	91
Field goals	45–80 · 56.3%	36–84 · 42.9%
Three-pointers	14–33 · 42.4%	13–44 · 29.5%
Free throws	26–35 · 74.3%	6–13 · 46.2%
Rebounds	49	36
Assists	31	22
Turnovers	15	16
Steals	11	10
Blocks	2	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)	−7	−39	−32
Total points	219	221	+2
ORL points	113	130	+17
MIL points	106	91	−15

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 7	at MIN	W 119–92
Mar 5	vs DAL	W 115–114
Mar 3	vs WAS	W 126–109
Mar 1	vs DET	L 92–106
Feb 26	vs HOU	L 108–113

Milwaukee Bucks

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 7	vs UTA	W 113–99
Mar 4	vs ATL	L 113–131
Mar 2	vs BOS	L 81–108
Mar 1	at CHI	L 97–120
Feb 27	vs NYK	L 98–127

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Feb 11 2025-26	MIL at ORL	MIL 116 – 108 ORL
Feb 9 2025-26	MIL at ORL	MIL 99 – 118 ORL
Mar 8 2024-25	ORL at MIL	ORL 111 – 109 MIL
Jan 15 2024-25	ORL at MIL	ORL 93 – 122 MIL
Jan 10 2024-25	MIL at ORL	MIL 109 – 106 ORL