The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 6

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks

Friday, November 6, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

TOR 4–4@MIL 1–7 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: TOR 70 percent, MIL 30 percent. TOR Raptors 70% proj. 122 · final 121 MIL Bucks · home 30% proj. 115 · final 107
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
TOR Toronto Raptors 122 121 −1
MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) 115 107 −8

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputTORMIL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15391338
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −131
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.2−8.6
Games played this season 88
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.2108.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.9117.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 19.50.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1539MIL1338

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1539

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
  2. This season's 8 games: −1.7
  • WCHI135–92+10.0
  • W@WAS112–102+4.6
  • L@MIN94–117−11.6
  • WORL129–99+15.5
  • LORL114–121−12.3
  • L@LAL125–131−5.4
  • W@LAC125–118+9.0
  • L@DEN109–128−11.5

MIL1338

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1344 → started this one at 1383
  2. This season's 8 games: −45.0
  • L@WAS116–128−13.1
  • LCHI125–132−10.7
  • L@PHI116–127−3.4
  • WIND110–102+7.8
  • LHOU100–132−11.2
  • LCLE111–136−10.3
  • L@MIN100–112−2.5
  • L@BOS102–109−1.6
Season scoring marginTOR+3.2MIL−8.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR+3.2

Scores 117.9, allows 113.5 over 8 games: +4.4 a game.

40% this season (+4.4) + 60% last season (+2.5) = +3.2

MIL−8.6

Scores 110.0, allows 122.2 over 8 games: −12.3 a game.

40% this season (−12.3) + 60% last season (−6.2) = −8.6

Offensive rating, last 10TOR114.2MIL108.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

TOR114.2scored, +2.1 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%53.3%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%13.3%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%27.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.226+0.0
Everything else+0.9

MIL108.2scored, −3.9 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%53.3%−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%13.3%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%27.1%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1570.226−2.0
Everything else−1.6
Defensive rating, last 10TOR111.9MIL117.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

TOR111.9allowed, −0.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%53.3%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)16.3%13.3%+4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.6%27.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.3000.226−2.1
Everything else+0.8

MIL117.8allowed, +5.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%53.3%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%13.3%−4.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%27.1%−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.226+0.3
Everything else+1.3
Pace, last 10average 101.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 100.5 and MIL 102.8 → average 101.7 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingTOR19.5MIL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR19.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kawhi Leonard19.525.82

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestTOR2 daysMIL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR2days

Last played Nov 4 against DEN.

MIL2days

Last played Nov 4 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4@DEN109–12841-8512-3415-221511112.4130.697.5
Nov 2@LAC125–11843-838-2931-481313123.8115.7101.5
Nov 1@LAL125–13145-10517-5418-251522116.8123.6106.5
Oct 30ORL114–12146-9111-2711-151115125.3131.591.5
Oct 28ORL129–9944-8815-3526-31148125.298.0102.0
Oct 25@MIN94–11735-9110-3814-21161495.9118.298.5
Oct 23@WAS112–10244-1017-3417-211619104.795.3107.0
Oct 21CHI135–9244-9810-3137-461016122.782.1111.0
May 3@CLE102–11438-878-2818-26147104.1116.398.0
May 1CLE112–11040-8713-3619-231510110.9107.891.9

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4@BOS102–10935-8519-4713-191411108.5114.794.5
Nov 2@MIN100–11238-9915-499-121618102.0113.198.5
Oct 31CLE111–13641-10017-5112-181315105.7129.5105.0
Oct 28HOU100–13237-9312-4114-18161598.0129.4102.0
Oct 26IND110–10241-9513-4415-211116104.899.0104.0
Oct 24@PHI116–12742-9011-3421-282217104.5115.5110.5
Oct 23CHI125–13246-9219-4614-261911113.6120.0110.0
Oct 21@WAS116–12841-9115-4119-231613112.6123.1103.5
Apr 12@PHI106–12639-9013-4715-22179101.9121.2104.0
Apr 10BKN125–10845-8124-4811-16177130.2112.596.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
70%
pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner
TOR was the forecast favorite
7 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual −14 for MIL
104th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
88th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statTORMIL
Final score121107
Field goals44–93 · 47.3%38–82 · 46.3%
Three-pointers9–32 · 28.1%10–40 · 25.0%
Free throws24–31 · 77.4%21–25 · 84.0%
Rebounds4237
Assists2825
Turnovers1620
Steals127
Blocks47

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Milwaukee Bucks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIL)−7−14−7
Total points237228−9
TOR points122121−1
MIL points115107−8

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Toronto Raptors

  • Out Kawhi Leonard
  • Out Nate Bittle
  • Questionable Immanuel Quickley
  • Questionable Kyle Anderson · Illness
  • Questionable Scottie Barnes

Milwaukee Bucks

No players listed.

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 at DEN L 109–128
Nov 2 at LAC W 125–118
Nov 1 at LAL L 125–131
Oct 30 vs ORL L 114–121
Oct 28 vs ORL W 129–99

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 at BOS L 102–109
Nov 2 at MIN L 100–112
Oct 31 vs CLE L 111–136
Oct 28 vs HOU L 100–132
Oct 26 vs IND W 110–102

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 22 2025-26 TOR at MIL TOR 122 – 94 MIL
Dec 18 2025-26 TOR at MIL TOR 111 – 105 MIL
Nov 4 2025-26 MIL at TOR MIL 100 – 128 TOR
Oct 24 2025-26 MIL at TOR MIL 122 – 116 TOR
Jan 17 2024-25 TOR at MIL TOR 112 – 130 MIL